CN113762734A - Dangerous chemical vehicle highway driving risk assessment method and system - Google Patents

Dangerous chemical vehicle highway driving risk assessment method and system Download PDF

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CN113762734A
CN113762734A CN202110943041.4A CN202110943041A CN113762734A CN 113762734 A CN113762734 A CN 113762734A CN 202110943041 A CN202110943041 A CN 202110943041A CN 113762734 A CN113762734 A CN 113762734A
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时磊
夏晶晶
陆建
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Huaiyin Institute of Technology
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a system for evaluating road running risks of hazardous chemical substance vehicles, which comprises the steps of firstly establishing a road transportation risk evaluation system of the hazardous chemical substance vehicles, and determining a primary evaluation factor and a secondary evaluation factor to which the primary evaluation factor belongs; and (3) grading the risk of each factor by using an expert evaluation method, establishing a membership risk evaluation matrix of the second-level evaluation factor, establishing a risk weight fuzzy set of each-level evaluation factor based on the evaluation matrix, and establishing an evaluation fuzzy set based on the weight fuzzy set to obtain the transportation risk level of the hazardous chemical substances. The invention also discloses a system for carrying out dangerous chemical transportation risk assessment by using the method, which comprises a risk source information extraction module, a dynamic assessment factor identification module, a data preprocessing module, a weight calculation module and a driving risk assessment module. The evaluation influence factors are set comprehensively, secondary evaluation factors can be added according to actual conditions, flexibility and universality are high, early warning can be performed on the signs of accidents, and the possibility of accidents is reduced.

Description

Dangerous chemical vehicle highway driving risk assessment method and system
Technical Field
The invention relates to a risk assessment method and a risk assessment system, in particular to a method and a system for assessing road driving risk of dangerous chemical vehicles.
Background
Dangerous chemicals as raw materials of daily necessities are often required to be transported in different places, and highways are the main transportation way of dangerous chemical vehicles. The dangerous chemical substance transport vehicle is different from a traditional transport vehicle in that a driver, a dangerous chemical substance vehicle and a road are main risk sources of danger, the consequences of accidents in the transportation process of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle are not considered, even the lives of people are threatened, and the risks existing in the transportation process of the dangerous chemical substance cannot be effectively evaluated and early warned in the prior art. The prior art often only makes the operating mode to a certain line of vehicle and early warning, and is not comprehensive enough, and traditional evaluation scheme only considers accident static factor, can not carry out real-time assessment to the risk in the dangerization article vehicle is traveling.
Disclosure of Invention
The purpose of the invention is as follows: the invention aims to provide a dangerous chemical substance vehicle road driving risk assessment method capable of giving early warning for transport accidents.
The technical scheme is as follows: the method for evaluating the road driving risk of the dangerous chemical vehicle comprises the following steps:
(1) establishing a dangerous chemical vehicle road transportation risk assessment system by using an analytic hierarchy process, and determining primary assessment factors and secondary assessment factors under the primary assessment factors;
(2 construction of intermediate Risk set values v expressing evaluation resultskWherein k is 1, 2, 3; score value interval of [0, 1%](ii) a Grading the risk degree of each factor by using an expert grading method;
(3) establishing a second-level factor membership risk evaluation matrix;
(4) establishing a weight fuzzy set of a first-level assessment factor and a second-level assessment factor of dangerous chemical transportation based on an entropy weight method based on a membership degree risk evaluation matrix;
(5) and constructing an evaluation fuzzy set according to the weight fuzzy sets of the first-stage evaluation factors and the second-stage evaluation factors, and carrying out fuzzy evaluation on the two-stage influence factors step by step to obtain the transportation evaluation grade of the hazardous chemical substances.
The primary evaluation factor comprises a driver alpha1Dangerous chemical substance vehicle alpha2And road alpha3。
In the step (3), a primary evaluation factor alphaiMembership risk evaluation matrix corresponding to 1, 2, 3AiIs composed of
Figure BDA0003215609790000011
Wherein ω isijkJ is the membership degree of a secondary evaluation factor pair value interval, i is 1, 2, m; k is 1, 2, 3; the value is calculated as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000021
wherein a iss×nThe elements in the fuzzy set which are the secondary evaluation factors are obtained by expert scoring, and the value range is [0, 1%]S is the number of experts, and n is the number of secondary evaluation factors.
The step (4) comprises the following steps:
(41) the risk evaluation matrix AiLinear transformation is carried out to obtain a matrix Bi，BiA single element of
Figure BDA0003215609790000022
The expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000023
(42) the entropy value Q of the factor is calculated as followsij：
Figure BDA0003215609790000024
Wherein K is Boltzmann constant;
(43) weight W to the second order evaluation factorijAnd evaluating, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000025
(44) establishing a second-order factor weight fuzzy set, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000026
wherein m, n and z represent the weight number of the secondary factor corresponding to each primary factor;
(45) constructing a first-level factor weight fuzzy set, wherein the expression is as follows:
U＝[U1 U2 U3]。
the step (5) comprises the following steps:
(51) first-level evaluation factor alpha is established based on dangerous chemical transportation fuzzy evaluation model1Corresponding secondary evaluation factors alphaijA primary fuzzy evaluation model, the expression of which is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000031
wherein EiRepresenting the weight of each secondary factor under each primary influence factor, i is 1, 2 and 3;
(52) establishing an evaluation model of each secondary factor, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000032
(53) establishing each first-level influence factor evaluation model, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000033
wherein E1…；U1 U2 U3Represents the weighted value of each primary evaluation factor, and the sum of the weighted values is 1;
(54) calculating a risk assessment value of a dangerous chemical substance vehicle road transportation evaluation index, and grading a form risk level in a risk degree interval, wherein the risk assessment value is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003215609790000034
the dangerous chemical substance vehicle highway form risk assessment system comprises the following modules:
the risk source information extraction module: the method comprises the steps of taking people, vehicles and roads as risk sources, carrying out risk evaluation by an expert evaluation method, storing accident information of each road section as an evaluation fuzzy numerical value of static factors influencing risk evaluation, wherein the static factors comprise dangerous chemical grade, road traffic volume and road curve and are added in real time according to annual accident information; after the running road section of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle is determined, accident information is extracted from a database to obtain the dangerous chemical substance vehicle alpha belonging to the primary evaluation factor2And road alpha3Fuzzy values of the secondary evaluation factor of (1);
the dynamic evaluation factor identification module: in the running process of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle, dynamic factors influencing risk assessment are identified to obtain a driver alpha belonging to a primary assessment factor1Dangerous chemical substance vehicle alpha2Fuzzy values of the secondary evaluation factor of (1);
a data preprocessing module: processing the obtained accident section information to construct a judgment matrix;
a weight calculation module: calculating the weight value of each hazard source by using the constructed evaluation matrix;
a driving risk evaluation module: identifying the risk degree of the comprehensive risk evaluation value, and determining the risk type;
and the modules are in communication connection.
The dynamic evaluation factor recognition module comprises an eyeball motion recognition device for judging whether the driver is tired or not, a gps receiving device for receiving real-time weather change and vehicle running tracks and various vehicle-mounted sensors, and fuzzy numerical values are defined as v when fatigue driving or weather change and illegal driving occur1。
The vehicle-mounted sensor is used for monitoring dangerizationThe risk of the vehicle is determined as v when the dangerous chemical vehicle is judged to be dangerous1。
Has the advantages that: compared with the prior art, the invention has the following remarkable advantages: the evaluation influence factors are set comprehensively, secondary evaluation factors are reserved, secondary evaluation factors can be added according to actual conditions, the evaluation model is high in flexibility and universality, early warning can be performed on the signs of dangerous chemical accidents, and the possibility of accidents is reduced. Compared with the traditional technical scheme only considering the static evaluation factor, the method and the system consider the dynamic evaluation factor at the same time, can carry out risk evaluation in real time during the running process of the hazardous chemical substance vehicle, and improve the safety of the hazardous chemical substance transportation process.
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FIG. 1 is a diagram of a risk assessment system for hazardous chemical transportation according to the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a risk assessment system for hazardous chemical transportation according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical scheme of the invention is further explained by combining the attached drawings.
The system for risk assessment of transportation of hazardous chemical substances is shown in fig. 1, and the assessment method comprises the following steps:
(1) acquiring accident information of road sections, establishing a dangerous chemical vehicle road transportation risk assessment system by using an analytic hierarchy process, and determining primary assessment factors and secondary assessment factors belonging to the primary assessment factors.
The primary evaluation factor includes the driver α1Dangerous chemical substance vehicle alpha2And road alpha3Belonging to the driver alpha1The secondary evaluation factors of (1) comprise fatigue driving, misoperation and illegal driving; belonging to dangerous chemical vehicle alpha2The secondary evaluation factors comprise dangerous chemical grade, poor braking and mechanical partsLoss; belonging to road alpha3The secondary evaluation factors comprise road traffic volume, weather change and road section information; in order to enhance the flexibility of the system, the secondary evaluation factors arranged under each primary evaluation factor can be increased or decreased according to actual requirements.
(2) Analyzing the identified accident information of the road sections, namely the accident occurrence quantity and the economic loss caused by the accident occurrence quantity, grading the risk degree of the accident information by combining an expert grading method, and constructing a risk set v for expressing the evaluation resultkAnd determining the intermediate value, wherein k is 1, 2 and 3, and the score value interval is [0, 1]As shown in the following table:
TABLE 1 Risk identification intervals
Status rating Value interval Median value
v1 Danger of [0.4，1] 0.7
v2 Is safer [0.2，0.4 0.3
v3 Secure [0，0.2 0.1
(3) Establishing a membership degree risk evaluation matrix of the secondary evaluation factor;
the single element in the fuzzy set of each secondary evaluation factor is denoted as as×nThe value is obtained by expert scoring, and the value interval is [0, 1 ]]S is the number of experts, and n is the number of secondary evaluation factors;
calculating the membership degree of each secondary evaluation factor pair value interval, wherein j is 1, 2, m; k is 1, 2, 3; as shown in the following formula:
Figure BDA0003215609790000051
from this, a primary evaluation factor alpha was constructediMembership risk evaluation matrix a corresponding to 1, 2, 3iIs composed of
Figure BDA0003215609790000052
(4) Establishing a weight fuzzy set of a first-level assessment factor and a second-level assessment factor of dangerous chemical transportation based on an entropy weight method based on a membership degree risk evaluation matrix, and specifically comprising the following steps:
(41) the risk evaluation matrix AiLinear transformation is carried out to obtain a matrix Bi，BiA single element of
Figure BDA0003215609790000057
The expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000053
(42) the entropy value Q of the factor is calculated as followsij：
Figure BDA0003215609790000054
Wherein K is Boltzmann constant;
(43) weight W to the second order evaluation factorijAnd evaluating, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000055
(44) establishing a second-order factor weight fuzzy set, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000056
wherein m, n and z represent the weight number of the secondary factor corresponding to each primary factor;
(45) constructing a first-level factor weight fuzzy set, wherein the expression is as follows:
U＝[U1 U2 U3]。
(5) an evaluation fuzzy set is constructed according to the weight fuzzy sets of the first-stage evaluation factors and the second-stage evaluation factors, the two-stage influence factors are subjected to fuzzy evaluation step by step, and the transportation evaluation grade of the hazardous chemical substances is obtained, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
(51) first-level evaluation factor alpha is established based on dangerous chemical transportation fuzzy evaluation model1Corresponding secondary evaluation factors alphaijA primary fuzzy evaluation model, the expression of which is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000061
wherein EiRepresenting the weight of each secondary factor under each primary influence factor, i is 1, 2 and 3;
(52) establishing an evaluation model of each secondary factor, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000062
(53) establishing each first-level influence factor evaluation model, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0003215609790000063
wherein E1…；U1 U2 U3Represents the weighted value of each primary evaluation factor, and the sum of the weighted values is 1;
(54) calculating a risk assessment value of a dangerous chemical substance vehicle road transportation evaluation index, and grading a form risk level in a risk degree interval, wherein the risk assessment value is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003215609790000064
as shown in fig. 2, the system for assessing the road driving risk of dangerous chemical vehicles according to the present invention includes the following modules:
the risk source information extraction module: the method comprises the steps of taking people, vehicles and roads as risk sources, carrying out risk evaluation by an expert evaluation method, storing accident information of each road section as an evaluation fuzzy numerical value of static factors influencing risk evaluation, wherein the static factors comprise dangerous chemical grade, road traffic volume and road curve and are added in real time according to annual accident information; after the running road section of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle is determined, accident information is extracted from a database to obtain the dangerous chemical substance vehicle alpha belonging to the primary evaluation factor2And road alpha3Fuzzy values of the secondary evaluation factor of (1);
the dynamic evaluation factor identification module: in the running process of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle, dynamic factors influencing risk assessment are identified to obtain a driver alpha belonging to a primary assessment factor1Dangerous chemical substance vehicle alpha2Fuzzy values of the secondary evaluation factor of (1);
a data preprocessing module: processing the obtained accident section information to construct a judgment matrix;
a weight calculation module: calculating the weight value of each hazard source by using the constructed evaluation matrix;
a driving risk evaluation module: identifying the risk degree of the comprehensive risk evaluation value, and determining the risk type;
and the modules are in communication connection.
The dynamic evaluation factor recognition module comprises an eyeball motion recognition device for judging whether the driver is tired or not, a gps receiving device for receiving real-time weather change and vehicle running track and various vehicle-mounted sensors, and fuzzy numerical values are defined as v when fatigue driving or weather change and illegal driving occur1。
The vehicle-mounted sensor is used for monitoring the risk of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle during running and comprises a liquid level sensor for judging whether the dangerous chemical substance is leaked, a tire pressure sensor for judging whether a tire is decompressed or not and a steering wheel corner sensor for judging whether steering is smooth or not, the sensors convert measured data into electric signals and transmit the electric signals to a system through a vehicle-mounted can bus, and fuzzy numerical values are defined as v when the dangerous chemical substance vehicle is judged to be dangerous1。
The parts not described in detail in this embodiment can be implemented by conventional techniques, and thus will not be described in detail.

Claims (7)

1. A dangerous chemical substance vehicle road driving risk assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) establishing a dangerous chemical vehicle road transportation risk assessment system by using an analytic hierarchy process, and determining primary assessment factors and secondary assessment factors under the primary assessment factors;
(2 construction of intermediate Risk set values v expressing evaluation resultskWherein k is 1, 2, 3; score value interval of [0, 1%](ii) a Grading the risk degree of each factor by using an expert grading method;
(3) establishing a second-level factor membership risk evaluation matrix;
(4) establishing a weight fuzzy set of a first-level assessment factor and a second-level assessment factor of dangerous chemical transportation based on an entropy weight method based on a membership degree risk evaluation matrix;
(5) and constructing an evaluation fuzzy set according to the weight fuzzy sets of the first-stage evaluation factors and the second-stage evaluation factors, and carrying out fuzzy evaluation on the two-stage influence factors step by step to obtain the transportation evaluation grade of the hazardous chemical substances.
2. The method for assessing the on-road driving risk of hazardous chemical substance vehicles according to claim 1, wherein the primary assessment factor comprises a driver alpha1Dangerous chemical substance vehicle alpha2And road alpha3。
3. The method for assessing the road driving risk of dangerous chemical vehicles according to claim 2, wherein in the step (3), a primary assessment factor α is determinediMembership risk evaluation matrix a corresponding to 1, 2, 3iIs composed of
Figure FDA0003215609780000011
Wherein ω isijkJ is 1, 2, …, m, which is the membership degree of the secondary evaluation factor value-counting interval; k is 1, 2, 3; the value is calculated as follows:
Figure FDA0003215609780000012
wherein a iss×nThe elements in the fuzzy set which are the secondary evaluation factors are obtained by expert scoring, and the value range is [0, 1%]S is the number of experts, and n is the number of secondary evaluation factors.
4. The method for assessing the on-road driving risk of hazardous chemical substance vehicles according to claim 3, wherein the step (4) comprises the following steps:
(41) the risk evaluation matrix AiLinear transformation is carried out to obtain a matrix Bi，BiA single element of
Figure FDA0003215609780000013
The expression is as follows:
Figure FDA0003215609780000014
(42) the entropy value Q of the factor is calculated as followsij：
Figure FDA0003215609780000021
Wherein K is Boltzmann constant;
(43) weight W to the second order evaluation factorijAnd evaluating, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure FDA0003215609780000022
(44) establishing a second-order factor weight fuzzy set, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure FDA0003215609780000023
wherein m, n and z represent the weight number of the secondary factor corresponding to each primary factor;
(45) constructing a first-level factor weight fuzzy set, wherein the expression is as follows:
U＝[U1 U2 U3]。
5. the method for assessing the on-road driving risk of hazardous chemical substance vehicles according to claim 4, wherein the step (5) comprises the following steps:
(51) first-level evaluation factor alpha is established based on dangerous chemical transportation fuzzy evaluation model1Corresponding secondary evaluation factors alphaijA primary fuzzy evaluation model, the expression of which is as follows:
Figure FDA0003215609780000024
wherein EiRepresenting the weight of each secondary factor under each primary influence factor, i is 1, 2 and 3;
(52) establishing an evaluation model of each secondary factor, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure FDA0003215609780000025
(53) establishing each first-level influence factor evaluation model, wherein the expression is as follows:
Figure FDA0003215609780000026
wherein E1…；U1 U2 U3Represents the weighted value of each primary evaluation factor, and the sum of the weighted values is 1;
(54) calculating a risk assessment value of a dangerous chemical substance vehicle road transportation evaluation index, and grading a form risk level in a risk degree interval, wherein the risk assessment value is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003215609780000031
6. a system for assessing the road driving risk of dangerous chemical vehicles by using the method of claims 1-5, wherein the system comprises the following modules:
the risk source information extraction module: the method comprises the steps of taking people, vehicles and roads as risk sources, carrying out risk evaluation by an expert evaluation method, storing accident information of each road section as an evaluation fuzzy numerical value of static factors influencing risk evaluation, wherein the static factors comprise dangerous chemical grade, road traffic volume and road curve and are added in real time according to annual accident information; identification of hazardous chemicalsAfter the vehicle runs on the road section, accident information is extracted from the database to obtain the vehicle alpha belonging to the first-level assessment factor dangerous chemical substance2And road alpha3Fuzzy values of the secondary evaluation factor of (1);
the dynamic evaluation factor identification module: in the running process of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle, dynamic factors influencing risk assessment are identified to obtain a driver alpha belonging to a primary assessment factor1Dangerous chemical substance vehicle alpha2Fuzzy values of the secondary evaluation factor of (1);
a data preprocessing module: processing the obtained accident section information to construct a judgment matrix;
a weight calculation module: calculating the weight value of each hazard source by using the constructed evaluation matrix;
a driving risk evaluation module: identifying the risk degree of the comprehensive risk evaluation value, and determining the risk type;
and the modules are in communication connection.
7. The system for assessing the road driving risk of dangerous chemical vehicles according to claim 6, wherein the dynamic assessment factor recognition module comprises an eye movement recognition device for judging whether the driver is tired or not, a gps receiving device for receiving real-time weather changes and vehicle running tracks and vehicle-mounted sensors, and fuzzy values are defined as v when the driver is tired or the weather changes and the illegal driving occurs1。
The vehicle-mounted sensor is used for monitoring the risk of the dangerous chemical substance vehicle during running and comprises a liquid level sensor for judging whether the dangerous chemical substance is leaked, a tire pressure sensor for judging whether a tire is decompressed or not and a steering wheel corner sensor for judging whether steering is smooth or not, the sensors convert measured data into electric signals and transmit the electric signals to a system through a vehicle-mounted can bus, and fuzzy numerical values are defined as v when the dangerous chemical substance vehicle is judged to be dangerous1。
CN202110943041.4A 2021-08-17 2021-08-17 Dangerous chemical vehicle highway driving risk assessment method and system Withdrawn CN113762734A (en)

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Cited By (6)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN114298518A (en) * 2021-12-22 2022-04-08 北京工业大学 Road risk evaluation index system under networked vehicle environment
CN115225402A (en) * 2022-07-26 2022-10-21 华能山东发电有限公司 New energy information security risk management system and method based on ISMS model
CN115796601A (en) * 2022-12-29 2023-03-14 无锡晶安智慧科技有限公司 Dangerous chemical enterprise safety risk level evaluation method
CN116631186A (en) * 2023-05-19 2023-08-22 东南大学 Expressway traffic accident risk assessment method and system based on dangerous driving event data
CN117541138A (en) * 2024-01-10 2024-02-09 鲁西化工集团股份有限公司 System and method for eliminating unqualified dangerous chemicals for logistics carrier vehicles
CN117949614A (en) * 2024-03-27 2024-04-30 广东石油化工学院 Dangerous goods hydraulic performance change prediction method based on dynamic factors

Cited By (9)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN114298518A (en) * 2021-12-22 2022-04-08 北京工业大学 Road risk evaluation index system under networked vehicle environment
CN115225402A (en) * 2022-07-26 2022-10-21 华能山东发电有限公司 New energy information security risk management system and method based on ISMS model
CN115796601A (en) * 2022-12-29 2023-03-14 无锡晶安智慧科技有限公司 Dangerous chemical enterprise safety risk level evaluation method
CN116631186A (en) * 2023-05-19 2023-08-22 东南大学 Expressway traffic accident risk assessment method and system based on dangerous driving event data
CN116631186B (en) * 2023-05-19 2024-05-28 东南大学 Expressway traffic accident risk assessment method and system based on dangerous driving event data
CN117541138A (en) * 2024-01-10 2024-02-09 鲁西化工集团股份有限公司 System and method for eliminating unqualified dangerous chemicals for logistics carrier vehicles
CN117541138B (en) * 2024-01-10 2024-04-19 鲁西化工集团股份有限公司 System and method for eliminating unqualified dangerous chemicals for logistics carrier vehicles
CN117949614A (en) * 2024-03-27 2024-04-30 广东石油化工学院 Dangerous goods hydraulic performance change prediction method based on dynamic factors
CN117949614B (en) * 2024-03-27 2024-05-28 广东石油化工学院 Dangerous goods hydraulic performance change prediction method based on dynamic factors

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