CN113761744A - Slope instability time prediction method based on dip angle sudden change - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a slope instability time prediction method based on dip angle mutation, which relates to the technical field of geological disaster early warning and comprises the following steps: s1, deploying a plurality of inclination angle sensors on the slope surface, and acquiring slope inclination angle change data in real time; s2, generating an angular rate time-course curve according to slope inclination change data, and judging a slope instability catastrophe stage according to the angular rate time-course curve; s3, when the slope enters the critical stage, calculating the comprehensive inclination of the slope in the critical stageTime reciprocal value of angular value Δ XYZ and integrated angular value Δ XYZ
Fitting time inverse value
A relation with time; s4, calculating the time inverse value of the comprehensive dip angle value according to the fitting relation
Predicting the moment as the slope instability moment at the moment of zero; and S5, judging whether the slope is wholly or partially unstable according to the combination of the slope instability moments predicted by different inclination angle sensors, wherein the time precision of the method for predicting the final instability time of the slope can reach the minute level.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of geological disaster early warning, in particular to a slope instability time prediction method based on dip angle mutation.
Background
Slope instability such as collapse and landslide is a common mountain disaster, and once the slope instability occurs, serious life and property loss is often caused. Timely and accurate disaster early warning is helpful for people to avoid dangerous areas and reduce life and property loss.
At present, the slope instability early warning is mainly implemented by the indexes of surface displacement, dip angle, deep displacement and the like. The early warning model is mainly vegetarian vine model and its revised model. The model roughly divides the landslide process into a deceleration stage, a uniform speed stage and acceleration (a uniform acceleration stage, an acceleration adding stage or an acceleration reducing stage), when the landslide body is switched from the uniform speed stage to the acceleration stage, the landslide body is often meant to enter a severe damage stage, and at the moment, evacuation needs to be prepared or organized. There are also warning with inclination indicators, such as the rate of change of angle, and suggesting evacuation remaining time, such as when the rate of change is greater than 0.01 °/h, meaning evacuation time from 10 hours to 300 hours.
These early warning methods generally correspond to the risk level, can judge the slope catastrophe stage, sometimes can give the destabilization remaining time according to experience, but the time boundary is often fuzzy, and the precision is small-scale. In order to better serve the slope instability early warning response, a slope instability time prediction method with higher time precision is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provides a slope instability time prediction method based on dip angle abrupt change.
The purpose of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a slope instability time prediction method based on dip angle abrupt change comprises the following steps:
s1, deploying a plurality of tilt sensors on the slope surface, obtaining the change data of the slope surface tilt angle in real time, and executing the step S2;
s2, generating an angular rate time-course curve according to the acquired slope inclination angle change data, judging a slope instability catastrophe stage according to the angular rate time-course curve, and executing the step S3;
s3, when it is judged that the slope instability catastrophe stage enters the critical slide catastrophe stage, calculating the comprehensive inclination angle value delta XYZ of the slope in the critical slide catastrophe stage and the time inverse value of the comprehensive inclination angle value delta XYZ
Fitting time inverse value
In relation to time, step S4 is executed;
s4, calculating the time inverse value of the comprehensive dip angle value according to the fitting relation
Predicting the moment as a slope instability moment at the moment of zero, and executing the step S5;
and S5, judging whether the slope is wholly or partially unstable according to the combination of the slope instability moments predicted by different tilt angle sensors.
Further, in the step S1, the tilt sensors are respectively disposed in the slope instability main sliding direction, and when the slope main sliding direction is ambiguous, the tilt sensors are disposed on the slope surface middle line and both sides of the middle line.
Further, in step S2, an angular rate time course curve is generated according to angular rate values acquired by the tilt sensor, the angular rate values are time accumulated angle values of X, Y, Z axes in three directions, and the angular rate values are updated according to the acquisition frequency of the tilt sensor.
Furthermore, a coordinate axis is established by taking the monitoring point of each inclination angle sensor as an origin, the period of the inclination angle sensor for acquiring the angular rate value on X, Y, Z axes on the coordinate axis is not less than 10 minutes once, and the accuracy of the inclination angle data of each direction of the inclination angle sensor is not less than 0.01 degrees.
Further, in the step S2, the determining the slope instability catastrophe stage according to the angular rate time-course curve includes, but is not limited to, the following methods: when the angular rate (unit degree/h) is in the interval of [ X1, X2 ], judging that the slope enters a catastrophe initial state, and when the angular rate is in the interval of [ X2, X3 ], judging that the slope enters a catastrophe aggravation state; when the angular speed is more than or equal to X3, the slope is judged to enter a catastrophe severe state, and the catastrophe aggravated state and the catastrophe severe state are both set as a slipping catastrophe stage.
Further, in step S3, the calculation formula of the integrated inclination angle value Δ XYZ is:
in the formula, Δ X, Δ Y, and Δ Z are changes in the inclination angle component of X, Y, Z axes in each direction per unit time Δ T, that is, angular velocity ratios in X, Y, Z directions.
Further, in the step S3, the time inverse value of the inclination angle value Δ XYZ is integrated
The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
further, fitting the inverse time value
The relation with time being a linear equation, i.e.
In the formula, a and b are constants obtained by fitting.
Further, in step S5, the method for determining whether the slope is entirely unstable or partially unstable includes: when only a single tilt angle sensor predicts the slope instability moment, the local instability can be judged, and when the instability moment is predicted by more than 2 sensors and the time difference between the instability moment and the current moment is less than or equal to T, the overall instability is judged; and when the time difference value between the instability moment and the current moment is greater than T, judging that the block is unstable, wherein T is less than or equal to T and represents the moment close to the instability moment, T is greater than T and represents the moment not close to the instability moment, and the value of T can be set autonomously according to the requirements of users.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the method provided by the invention is beneficial to determining the slope instability time and providing a powerful basis for early warning response, measures slope inclination angle change according to the inclination angle monitor arranged on the slope, and further judges the instability catastrophe stage and predicts the final instability time according to the change trend, and the time precision can reach the minute level.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a graph showing angular rate changes in each direction in the example;
FIG. 3 is a complex time reciprocal value fit curve for tilt angles from 9:00 to 10:00 in examples.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to fig. 1 to 3 of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. All other implementations made by those of ordinary skill in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention are obtained without inventive efforts.
In the description of the present invention, it is to be understood that the terms "counterclockwise", "clockwise", "longitudinal", "lateral", "up", "down", "front", "back", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", etc., indicate orientations or positional relationships based on those shown in the drawings, and are used for convenience of description only, and do not indicate or imply that the referenced devices or elements must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and thus, are not to be considered as limiting.
A slope instability time prediction method based on dip angle abrupt change comprises the following steps:
s1, deploying a plurality of tilt sensors on the slope surface, obtaining the change data of the slope surface tilt angle in real time, and executing the step S2;
s2, generating an angular rate time-course curve according to the acquired slope inclination angle change data, judging a slope instability catastrophe stage according to the angular rate time-course curve, and executing the step S3;
s3, when it is judged that the slope instability catastrophe stage enters the critical slide catastrophe stage, calculating the comprehensive inclination angle value delta XYZ of the slope in the critical slide catastrophe stage and the time inverse value of the comprehensive inclination angle value delta XYZ
Fitting time inverse value
In relation to time, step S4 is executed;
s4, calculating the time inverse value of the comprehensive dip angle value according to the fitting relation
Predicting the moment as a slope instability moment at the moment of zero, and executing the step S5;
and S5, judging whether the slope is wholly or partially unstable according to the combination of the slope instability moments predicted by different tilt angle sensors.
Further, in the step S1, the tilt sensors are respectively disposed in the slope instability main sliding direction, and when the slope main sliding direction is ambiguous, the tilt sensors are disposed on the slope surface middle line and both sides of the middle line.
Further, in step S2, an angular rate time course curve is generated according to angular rate values acquired by the tilt sensor, the angular rate values are time accumulated angle values of X, Y, Z axes in three directions, and the angular rate values are updated according to the acquisition frequency of the tilt sensor.
Furthermore, a coordinate axis is established by taking the monitoring point of each inclination angle sensor as an origin, the period of the inclination angle sensor for acquiring the angular rate value on X, Y, Z axes on the coordinate axis is not less than 10 minutes once, and the accuracy of the inclination angle data of each direction of the inclination angle sensor is not less than 0.01 degrees.
Further, in the step S2, the determining the slope instability catastrophe stage according to the angular rate time-course curve includes, but is not limited to, the following methods: when the angular rate (unit degree/h) is in the interval of [0.01, 0.1 ], judging that the slope enters a catastrophe initial state, and when the angular rate is in the interval of [0.1, 1 ], judging that the slope enters a catastrophe aggravation state; and when the angular speed is more than or equal to 1 degree/h, judging that the slope enters a catastrophe serious state, and setting the catastrophe aggravated state and the catastrophe serious state as a slipping catastrophe stage.
Further, in step S3, the calculation formula of the integrated inclination angle value Δ XYZ is:
in the formula, Δ X, Δ Y, and Δ Z are changes in the inclination angle component of X, Y, Z axes in each direction per unit time Δ T, that is, angular velocity ratios in X, Y, Z directions.
Further, in the step S3, the time inverse value of the inclination angle value Δ XYZ is integrated
The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
further, fitting the inverse time value
The relation with time being a linear equation, i.e.
In the formula, a and b are constants obtained by fitting.
Further, in step S5, the method for determining whether the slope is entirely unstable or partially unstable includes: when only a single tilt angle sensor predicts the slope instability moment, the local instability can be judged, and when the instability moment is predicted by more than 2 sensors and the time difference between the instability moment and the current moment is less than or equal to T, the overall instability is judged; and when the time difference value between the instability moment and the current moment is greater than T, judging that the block is unstable, wherein T is less than or equal to T and represents the moment close to the instability moment, T is greater than T and represents the moment not close to the instability moment, and the value of T can be set autonomously according to the requirements of users.
Examples
And monitoring and early warning on a certain landslide by adopting an inclination angle monitoring meter. The accelerometer can monitor X, Y, Z inclination angle change values in three directions, the acquisition period is 10 minutes, and the acquisition precision is 0.001 degrees. In the process of a certain rainfall, the inclination angle value of the landslide slope is abnormally changed at 9:00, and the abnormality is gradually worsened along with the time, as shown in fig. 3, finally, instability destruction is carried out at about 10:50, a comprehensive inclination angle time inverse value at each moment after 9:00 is calculated, and the moment when the inverse value is zero is determined according to the comprehensive inclination angle time inverse value;
FIG. 3 is a fitted curve to which data between 9:00 and 10:00 are fitted，Fitting relation is
And (3) substituting the data into the relational expression to obtain-386.1X +167.35, and when Y is 0, converting X into 0.4334 to obtain the product of 10:24 in 24 hours. If a landslide early warning inclination angle sensor is distributed at 10:00, the calculation lead is 24 minutes, and the actual lead is about 50 minutes.
The foregoing is merely a preferred embodiment of the invention, it being understood that the embodiments described are part of the invention, and not all of it. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention. The invention is not intended to be limited to the forms disclosed herein, but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein. And that modifications and variations may be effected by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (9)
1. A slope instability time prediction method based on dip angle abrupt change is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, deploying a plurality of tilt sensors on the slope surface, obtaining the change data of the slope surface tilt angle in real time, and executing the step S2;
s2, generating an angular rate time-course curve according to the acquired slope inclination angle change data, judging a slope instability catastrophe stage according to the angular rate time-course curve, and executing the step S3;
s3, when it is judged that the slope instability catastrophe stage enters the critical slide catastrophe stage, calculating the comprehensive inclination angle value delta XYZ of the slope in the critical slide catastrophe stage and the time inverse value of the comprehensive inclination angle value delta XYZ
Fitting time inverse value
In relation to time, step S4 is executed;
s4, calculating the time inverse value of the comprehensive dip angle value according to the fitting relation
Predicting the moment as a slope instability moment at the moment of zero, and executing the step S5;
and S5, judging whether the slope is wholly or partially unstable according to the combination of the slope instability moments predicted by different tilt angle sensors.
2. The method for predicting slope instability time based on sudden change of inclination angle according to claim 1, wherein in step S1, the plurality of inclination angle sensors are respectively disposed in the main sliding direction of slope instability, and when the main sliding direction of slope is ambiguous, the inclination angle sensors are disposed at the midline of the slope surface of the slope and at both sides of the midline.
3. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step S2, an angular rate time course curve is generated according to angular rate values collected by the tilt sensor, the angular rate values are accumulated X, Y, Z axes in three directions, and the angular rate values are updated according to the collection frequency of the tilt sensor.
4. The method for predicting the slope instability time based on the sudden change of the inclination angle as claimed in claim 3, wherein a coordinate axis is established with the monitoring point of each inclination angle sensor as an origin, and the period of the inclination angle sensor acquiring the angular rate value on X, Y, Z axes on the coordinate axis is not less than 10 minutes.
5. The method for predicting slope destabilization time based on abrupt change of inclination angle according to claim 3, wherein the step S2 of judging the catastrophic stage of slope destabilization according to the angular rate time course includes but is not limited to the following methods: when the angular rate (unit degree/h) is in the interval of [ X1, X2 ], judging that the slope enters a catastrophe initial state, and when the angular rate is in the interval of [ X2, X3 ], judging that the slope enters a catastrophe aggravation state; when the angular speed is more than or equal to X3, the slope is judged to enter a catastrophe severe state, and the catastrophe aggravated state and the catastrophe severe state are both set as a slipping catastrophe stage.
6. The method for predicting the slope instability time based on the sudden change of the inclination angle as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step S3, the calculation formula of the integrated inclination angle value Δ XYZ is:
in the formula, Δ X, Δ T, and Δ Z are changes in the inclination angle component of X, Y, Z axes in each direction per unit time Δ T, that is, angular velocity ratios in X, Y, Z directions.
7. The method as claimed in claim 6, wherein in step S3, the time inverse value of the inclination angle Δ XYZ is synthesized
The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
8. the method according to claim 7, wherein fitting the inverse time value
The relation with time being a linear equation, i.e.
In the formula, a and b are constants obtained by fitting.
9. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step S5, the method for determining whether the slope is entirely unstable or partially unstable includes: when only a single tilt angle sensor predicts the slope instability moment, the local instability can be judged, and when the instability moment is predicted by more than 2 sensors and the time difference between the instability moment and the current moment is less than or equal to T, the overall instability is judged; and when the time difference value between the instability moment and the current moment is greater than T, judging that the block is unstable.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN114037190A (en) * | 2022-01-07 | 2022-02-11 | 北京科技大学 | Method and device for predicting critical rock mass collapse time interval containing steep dip fractures |
| CN114485788A (en) * | 2022-01-12 | 2022-05-13 | 北京科技大学 | Slope dangerous rock body collapse early warning method and device based on inclination and strong vibration characteristics |
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| CN108709532A (en) * | 2018-03-29 | 2018-10-26 | 河北工业大学 | A kind of bevel edge Slope Stability Evaluation method of ladder-like jump deformation |
| CN111796113A (en) * | 2020-06-19 | 2020-10-20 | 西南交通建设集团股份有限公司 | Slope damage time determination method and system based on angular velocity reciprocal method |
| CN112950901A (en) * | 2021-01-25 | 2021-06-11 | 江苏霆善科技有限公司 | Disaster monitoring system and method based on data analysis |
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2021
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| CN108709532A (en) * | 2018-03-29 | 2018-10-26 | 河北工业大学 | A kind of bevel edge Slope Stability Evaluation method of ladder-like jump deformation |
| CN111796113A (en) * | 2020-06-19 | 2020-10-20 | 西南交通建设集团股份有限公司 | Slope damage time determination method and system based on angular velocity reciprocal method |
| CN112950901A (en) * | 2021-01-25 | 2021-06-11 | 江苏霆善科技有限公司 | Disaster monitoring system and method based on data analysis |
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN114037190A (en) * | 2022-01-07 | 2022-02-11 | 北京科技大学 | Method and device for predicting critical rock mass collapse time interval containing steep dip fractures |
| CN114037190B (en) * | 2022-01-07 | 2022-04-29 | 北京科技大学 | Method and device for predicting critical rock mass collapse time interval containing steep dip fractures |
| CN114485788A (en) * | 2022-01-12 | 2022-05-13 | 北京科技大学 | Slope dangerous rock body collapse early warning method and device based on inclination and strong vibration characteristics |
| CN114485788B (en) * | 2022-01-12 | 2022-10-11 | 北京科技大学 | Slope dangerous rock body collapse early warning method and device based on inclination and strong vibration characteristics |
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