CN113743671A - High-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization method and system - Google Patents

High-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization method and system Download PDF

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CN113743671A
CN113743671A CN202111051062.1A CN202111051062A CN113743671A CN 113743671 A CN113743671 A CN 113743671A CN 202111051062 A CN202111051062 A CN 202111051062A CN 113743671 A CN113743671 A CN 113743671A
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陈思
陈泽军
汤银英
梁玥
邓晓臻
钟娟
池欣忆
卜思豪
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Abstract

The invention discloses a high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization method and system, relates to the technical field of transportation, and comprises a geographical economic attribute express demand analysis module, an express demand prediction module, a high-speed rail express sharing rate operation module and a high-speed rail express network planning module. The express delivery system effectively matches express delivery requirements, effectively utilizes transportation resources according to the actual sharing effect of express delivery in high-speed rail, and solves the problems of incomplete planning and low efficiency of express delivery transportation network in high-speed rail.

Description

High-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization method and system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of transportation, in particular to a method and a system for optimizing a special express train transportation network of a high-speed rail.
Background
In the technical field of transportation, with the development of railway engineering, high-speed rail transportation is already undertaken or is about to undertake more and more functional tasks, wherein express delivery work is a new function and a new task undertaken by the high-speed rail transportation. Traditional express delivery operation in China mostly depends on road transportation and is limited by road engineering conditions, road conditions and climate influences, and the road transportation is increasingly difficult to effectively meet the requirements of consumers and logistics enterprises.
The medium-speed rail express delivery limited company has prospectively introduced the railway express cargo transportation business with the help of the confirmation vehicle and the existing passenger train, and has great development potential, but meanwhile, the express transportation of the high-speed rail still has a plurality of problems at present: firstly, the matching degree of infrastructure is low, the actual demand of goods transportation is not considered in the vehicle design, the network layout and the operation scheme, and the express operation capability is limited; secondly, the terminal service capacity is insufficient, and a high-speed rail express freight network based on express transportation demand space distribution is not formed; and thirdly, the passenger transport and freight transport of the high-speed rail are mixed, the linking effectiveness of the transport links is not high, the transport resources are wasted, and the transport network efficiency is to be improved.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the method and the system for optimizing the express special train transportation network of the high-speed rail provided by the invention solve the problems of low matching degree of the existing express transportation infrastructure of the high-speed rail, insufficient terminal service capacity, mixed passenger transport and freight transport, low linking efficiency of transportation links and waste of transportation resources.
In order to achieve the purpose of the invention, the invention adopts the technical scheme that:
in a first aspect, a method for optimizing a special express transportation network for a high-speed rail comprises the following steps:
s1, establishing a geographical economic attribute express demand model, and identifying useful geographical economic elements according to the geographical economic attribute express demand model;
s2, collecting historical data of useful geographical economic factors and express delivery traffic, and training an express delivery demand prediction model;
s3, forecasting the potential express business volume according to the current useful geographic economic factor data through an express demand forecasting model;
s4, establishing and training a traffic express sharing rate model according to historical data of express traffic;
s5, solving the potential high-speed rail express delivery traffic through a traffic express delivery sharing rate model according to the potential express delivery traffic;
and S6, optimizing the express special train transportation network of the high-speed rail according to the useful geographical economic factors and the potential express traffic of the high-speed rail through a K-means clustering algorithm.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the method comprises the steps of analyzing the relation between express delivery business volume and economic factors on geographical space distribution through an established geographical economic attribute express delivery demand model, identifying useful geographical economic factors with high association degree, predicting potential express delivery business volume at each position on the potential geographical space through an express delivery demand prediction model, researching the sharing rate of express delivery of a high-speed rail through a traffic express delivery sharing rate model, solving the potential express delivery business volume of the high-speed rail, optimizing a special high-speed rail express transportation network in the geographical space according to the useful geographical economic factors and the potential express delivery business volume through a K mean value clustering algorithm, effectively matching express delivery demands, effectively utilizing transportation resources according to the actual sharing effect of the express delivery of the high-speed rail, and solving the problems of incomplete planning and low efficiency of the express transportation network of the high-speed rail.
Further, the step S1 includes the following sub-steps:
s11, establishing a geographical economic attribute express delivery demand model, wherein the geographical economic attribute express delivery demand model has the expression:
Figure BDA0003252768330000021
wherein q isiExpress traffic for geographic unit i, (u)i,vi) Is the spatial coordinate of a geographic unit i, i is a closed interval [1, N]Positive integer of, N is the total number of geographic units, xi,jIs the geographic unit ith geographic economic element, beta0(ui,vi) For geographic unit i 0 th geographic economic element relevance degree, betaj(ui，vi) For the geographic unit ith geographic economic element relevance degree epsiloniBias coefficient for geographic unit i, and closed interval [0, M ] for j]The positive integer inside, M is the total number of the geographic economic elements;
s12, estimating the geographic economic element association degree of the geographic economic attribute express delivery demand model through a weighted least square method, wherein the expression of the weighted least square method is as follows:
Figure BDA0003252768330000031
Figure BDA0003252768330000032
Figure BDA0003252768330000033
Figure BDA0003252768330000034
Figure BDA0003252768330000035
Figure BDA0003252768330000036
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003252768330000037
a vector is estimated for the degree of association of the geographical economic elements of the geographical unit i,
Figure BDA0003252768330000038
for the geographic unit ith geographic economic element relevance degree betaj(ui,vi) W (i) is a weight matrix for geographic unit i,
Figure BDA0003252768330000039
is a geographic unit i and a geographic unit i0Inter weight value, X is the economic element matrix, XTA transposed matrix of the economic element matrix X, b a first inverse coefficient,
Figure BDA00032527683300000310
from geographic cell i to geographic cell i0Distance of (i)0Is a closed interval [1, N]The positive integer in the express delivery system is shown as q, the express delivery traffic vector is shown as q, and e is the base number of the natural logarithm;
and S13, evaluating the geographic economic element association degree estimation result through a Chichi information criterion method, and identifying useful geographic economic elements.
The beneficial effects of the above further scheme are: in order to research the distribution of express delivery demands in geographic space, the relationship between express delivery traffic and geographic economic elements needs to be analyzed, and different economic elements have different influences on the express delivery traffic, so that the attribute association degree of each economic element on geographic information characteristics is determined, and the identification of useful geographic economic elements is particularly important. According to the scheme, a geographical economic attribute express demand model is established, the model is solved through a weighted least square method, the geographical economic element association degree is estimated, the model is evaluated through an Akaikeinformation criterion method (AIC), useful geographical economic elements are identified, and a foundation is accurately and reliably laid for subsequent engineering.
Furthermore, the express demand forecasting model comprises L express demand forecasting submodels, wherein L is a positive integer greater than 2; wherein, at least 1 express delivery demand prediction submodel is BP neural network, and it includes: an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer; at least 1 express demand forecasting sub-model is a grey forecasting model; at least 1 express demand forecasting sub-model is a cubic exponential smoothing model; the output of each express demand forecasting sub-model obtains the output of the express demand forecasting model through the following weighting types:
Figure BDA0003252768330000041
Figure BDA0003252768330000042
Se′m＝Sem×ηe
Figure BDA0003252768330000043
wherein y is the output of the express demand prediction model, ymFor the output of the mth express demand prediction submodel, αmIs a weighting coefficient, Se 'of the mth express delivery demand forecasting sub-model'mAverage prediction error, Se, of the mth express demand prediction submodelmAn original average prediction error, eta, of the mth express delivery demand prediction submodeleC is a second inverse coefficient.
The beneficial effects of the above further scheme are: different machine learning models have different prediction effects, and the accuracy is characterized by the average prediction error; considering that the application of express delivery transportation of high-speed rails in an actual scene has strong geographical characteristics, the scheme jointly applies various existing machine learning models and carries out weighted summation according to average prediction errors of various technologies to obtain a final prediction result; the scheme establishes an express demand prediction model which at least comprises sub-models of three different technical routes, namely a BP (feed-forward) neural network, a gray prediction model and a cubic exponential smoothing model, and integrates the advantages of the three technologies; when the current useful geographical economic factor data is input into the trained express demand prediction model, the potential express traffic can be analyzed.
Further, the expression of the traffic express sharing rate model is as follows:
Figure BDA0003252768330000051
Un＝(γn,1Tn -1+γn,2Cn+γn,3En -1)·γn,4·Sn·γn,5·Rn
wherein, PnIs the sharing rate of the nth mode of transportation, UnIs the effect of the nth mode of transportation, H is the sum of modes of transportation, TnTime efficiency of the nth mode of transportation, gamman,1Is the time-dependent weight of the nth mode of transportation, CnFor convenience of the nth mode of transportation, gamman,2Is the convenience weight of the nth mode of transportation, EnCost of the nth mode of transportation, γn,3Is the cost weight of the nth mode of transportation, SnA factor of safety, gamma, for the nth mode of transportationn,4Is the safety factor weight, R, of the nth mode of transportationnIs the reliability coefficient of the nth mode of transportation, gamman,5And the reliability coefficient weight of the nth traffic mode.
The beneficial effects of the above further scheme are: potential express business volume can only measure the integral demand of express business, however, in terms of engineering, the potential express business volume is limited by timeliness, convenience, cost, safety factor and reliability coefficient of traffic mode of geographic area, and the sharing rate of express delivery by high-speed rail is not necessarily obvious; the traffic express sharing rate model can effectively represent the sharing rate of express services of high-speed rails and can calculate the potential express service volume of the high-speed rails based on the sharing rate.
Further, the step S6 includes the following sub-steps:
s61, mapping each geographic unit into candidate nodes of a K-means clustering algorithm one by one, and taking useful geographic economic factors and potential high-speed rail express traffic of each geographic unit as attributes of corresponding candidate nodes to obtain a candidate node set:
Z＝{z1,z2,z3,…,zN}
Figure BDA0003252768330000061
wherein Z is a candidate node set, Z1To zNAre respectively the 1 st to Nth candidate nodes, zp,1To zp,I+1Respectively 1 st to I +1 st attributes of the p candidate node, wherein I is the sum of useful geographic economic elements;
s62, setting the category number of the K-means clustering algorithm, optimizing the high-speed rail express special train transportation network according to the K-means clustering constraint and the K-means clustering objective function, and solving to obtain the optimal network node geographical position and the optimal network node jurisdiction of the high-speed rail express special train transportation network.
The beneficial effects of the above further scheme are: in order to not omit important information, the potential high-speed rail express delivery service volume and useful geographic economic factors are taken as the attributes of candidate nodes of a K-means clustering algorithm to form candidate nodes in a vector form, the K-means clustering algorithm is started to select the centroid and cluster the nodes according to the candidate nodes, the position of the centroid determined by iteration is the footfall of the optimal network node of the high-speed rail express delivery special train transportation network, and the clustering division result of the iteration is the respective jurisdiction division result of each optimal network node of the high-speed rail express delivery special train transportation network, so that the optimization of the high-speed rail express delivery special train transportation network is completed.
Further, the K-means clustering objective function is:
Figure BDA0003252768330000062
Figure BDA0003252768330000063
where min is a function of the minimum, DRIs the comprehensive distance between samples of the K-means clustering algorithm, okIs the kth cluster centroid, d (z)p,ok) Is the distance, w ', of the p-th candidate node to the k-th clustered centroid'kpThe weight of the distance from the p candidate node to the K clustering centroid, K is the set class number, upIs the abscissa, v, of the p-th candidate nodepIs the ordinate, u, of the p-th candidate nodekIs the abscissa, v, of the k-th cluster centroidkIs the ordinate of the kth cluster centroid.
Further, the K-means clustering constraint is:
w′kp∈(0,1)
Figure BDA0003252768330000071
Figure BDA0003252768330000072
in a second aspect, a high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization system adopts the high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization method, and includes: the system comprises a geographical economic attribute express demand analysis module, an express demand prediction module, a high-speed rail express sharing rate operation module and a high-speed rail express network planning module;
the geographical economic attribute express demand analysis module is used for establishing a geographical economic attribute express demand model and identifying useful geographical economic elements according to the geographical economic attribute express demand model;
the express delivery demand forecasting module is used for collecting useful geographic economic factors and historical data of express delivery business volume and training an express delivery demand forecasting model; predicting the potential express business volume according to the current useful geographic economic factor data through an express demand prediction model;
the express delivery sharing rate operation module for the high-speed rail is used for establishing and training a traffic express delivery sharing rate model according to historical data of express delivery service volume; solving the potential high-speed rail express delivery traffic through a traffic express delivery sharing rate model according to the potential express delivery traffic;
the high-speed rail express network planning module is used for optimizing the high-speed rail express special train transportation network according to useful geographical economic factors and potential high-speed rail express business volume through a K-means clustering algorithm.
In a third aspect, a high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization device includes:
a memory for storing a computer program;
and the processor is used for realizing the steps of the high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization method when executing the computer program.
In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium has stored thereon a computer program, which when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for optimizing a high-speed rail express special transportation network described above.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for optimizing a transportation network for express trains in high-speed rail according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a structural diagram of a high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a structural diagram of a high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization device provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention is provided to facilitate the understanding of the present invention by those skilled in the art, but it should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the scope of the embodiments, and it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined and defined in the appended claims, and all matters produced by the invention using the inventive concept are protected.
As shown in fig. 1, in an embodiment of the present invention, a method for optimizing a transportation network for express trains in high-speed railways includes the following steps:
s1, establishing a geographical economic attribute express demand model, and identifying useful geographical economic elements according to the geographical economic attribute express demand model.
Step S1 includes the following substeps:
s11, establishing a geographical economic attribute express delivery demand model, wherein the geographical economic attribute express delivery demand model has the expression:
Figure BDA0003252768330000091
wherein q isiExpress traffic for geographic unit i, (u)i,vi) Is the spatial coordinate of a geographic unit i, i is a closed interval [1, N]Positive integer of, N is the total number of geographic units, xi,jIs the geographic unit ith geographic economic element, beta0(ui,vi) For geographic unit i 0 th geographic economic element relevance degree, betaj(ui,vi) For the geographic unit ith geographic economic element relevance degree epsiloniBias coefficient for geographic unit i, and closed interval [0, M ] for j]The positive integer in the table, M is the total number of the geographic economic elements, in this embodiment, four economic elements of GDP, CPI, disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure are analyzed;
s12, estimating the geographic economic element association degree of the geographic economic attribute express delivery demand model through a weighted least square method, wherein the expression of the weighted least square method is as follows:
Figure BDA0003252768330000092
Figure BDA0003252768330000093
Figure BDA0003252768330000094
Figure BDA0003252768330000095
Figure BDA0003252768330000101
Figure BDA0003252768330000102
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003252768330000103
a vector is estimated for the degree of association of the geographical economic elements of the geographical unit i,
Figure BDA0003252768330000104
for the geographic unit ith geographic economic element relevance degree betaj(ui,vi) W (i) is a weight matrix for geographic unit i,
Figure BDA0003252768330000105
is a geographic unit i and a geographic unit i0Inter-weighted value, X is economic element matrix, XTA transposed matrix of the economic element matrix X, b a first inverse coefficient,
Figure BDA0003252768330000106
from geographic cell i to geographic cell i0Distance of (i)0Is a closed interval [1, N]The positive integer in the express delivery system is shown as q, the express delivery traffic vector is shown as q, and e is the base number of the natural logarithm;
and S13, evaluating the geographic economic element association degree estimation result through a Chichi information criterion method, and identifying useful geographic economic elements.
In order to research the distribution of express delivery demands in geographic space, the relationship between express delivery traffic and geographic economic elements needs to be analyzed, and different economic elements have different influences on the express delivery traffic, so that the attribute association degree of each economic element on geographic information characteristics is determined, and the identification of useful geographic economic elements is particularly important. According to the scheme, a geographical economic attribute express demand model is established, the model is solved through a weighted least square method, the geographical economic element association degree is estimated, the model is evaluated through an Akaikeinformation criterion method (AIC), useful geographical economic elements are identified, and a foundation is accurately and reliably laid for subsequent engineering. Since the akachi pool information criterion method is the prior art, the embodiment of the present invention is not described in detail.
And S2, collecting historical data of useful geographic economic factors and express delivery traffic, and training an express delivery demand prediction model.
The express demand forecasting model comprises L express demand forecasting submodels, wherein L is a positive integer greater than 2; wherein, at least 1 express delivery demand prediction submodel is BP neural network, and it includes: an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer; at least 1 express demand forecasting sub-model is a grey forecasting model; at least 1 express demand forecasting sub-model is a cubic exponential smoothing model; the output of each express demand forecasting sub-model obtains the output of the express demand forecasting model through the following weighting types:
Figure BDA0003252768330000111
Figure BDA0003252768330000112
Se′m＝Sem×ηe
Figure BDA0003252768330000113
wherein y is the output of the express demand prediction model, ymFor the output of the mth express demand prediction submodel, αmWeighting system for mth express delivery demand forecasting sub-modelNumber, Se'mAverage prediction error, Se, of the mth express demand prediction submodelmAn original average prediction error, eta, of the mth express delivery demand prediction submodeleC is a second inverse coefficient.
In the embodiment of the invention, the express demand prediction model comprises 3 express demand prediction submodels which are a BP neural network, a gray prediction model and a cubic exponential smoothing model respectively. The express demand forecasting sub-model constructed by the BP neural network is established by the following formula of the number of hidden layer neurons:
Figure BDA0003252768330000114
wherein r is2Number of hidden layer neurons, r1Is the number of neurons in the input layer, r3The number of neurons in the output layer is constant xi is a closed interval [1,10 ]]Positive integer within.
The embodiment of the invention does not describe the two prior arts of the gray prediction model and the cubic exponential smoothing model.
And S3, forecasting the potential express delivery traffic according to the current useful geographic economic factor data through an express delivery demand forecasting model.
And S4, establishing and training a traffic express sharing rate model according to historical data of express traffic.
The expression of the traffic express sharing rate model is as follows:
Figure BDA0003252768330000121
Un＝(γn,1Tn -1+γn,2Cn+γn,3En -1)·γn,4·Sn·γn,5·Rn
wherein, PnIs the sharing rate of the nth mode of transportation, UnIs the effect of the nth mode of transportation, H is the sum of modes of transportation, TnTime efficiency of the nth mode of transportation, gamman,1Is the time-dependent weight of the nth mode of transportation, CnFor convenience of the nth mode of transportation, gamman,2Is the convenience weight of the nth mode of transportation, EnCost of the nth mode of transportation, γn,3Is the cost weight of the nth mode of transportation, SnA factor of safety, gamma, for the nth mode of transportationn,4Is the safety factor weight, R, of the nth mode of transportationnIs the reliability coefficient of the nth mode of transportation, gamman,5And the reliability coefficient weight of the nth traffic mode.
Potential express business volume can only measure the integral demand of express business, however, in terms of engineering, the potential express business volume is limited by timeliness, convenience, cost, safety factor and reliability coefficient of traffic mode of geographic area, and the sharing rate of express delivery by high-speed rail is not necessarily obvious; the traffic express sharing rate model can effectively represent the sharing rate of express services of high-speed rails and can calculate the potential express service volume of the high-speed rails based on the sharing rate.
In the embodiment of the invention, the traffic express sharing rate model considers three traffic modes, including: the traffic express sharing rate model can accurately calculate the sharing rate of express businesses by the high-speed rail.
And S5, solving the potential high-speed rail express delivery traffic through the traffic express delivery sharing rate model according to the potential express delivery traffic.
And S6, optimizing the express special train transportation network of the high-speed rail according to the useful geographical economic factors and the potential express traffic of the high-speed rail through a K-means clustering algorithm.
Step S6 includes the following substeps:
s61, mapping each geographic unit into candidate nodes of a K-means clustering algorithm one by one, and taking useful geographic economic factors and potential high-speed rail express traffic of each geographic unit as attributes of corresponding candidate nodes to obtain a candidate node set:
Z＝{z1,z2,z3,…，zN}
Figure BDA0003252768330000131
wherein Z is a candidate node set, Z1To zNAre respectively the 1 st to Nth candidate nodes, zp,1To zp,I+1Respectively 1 st to I +1 st attributes of the p candidate node, wherein I is the sum of useful geographic economic elements;
s62, setting the category number of the K-means clustering algorithm, optimizing the high-speed rail express special train transportation network according to the K-means clustering constraint and the K-means clustering objective function, and solving to obtain the optimal network node geographical position and the optimal network node jurisdiction of the high-speed rail express special train transportation network.
The K-means clustering objective function is:
Figure BDA0003252768330000132
Figure BDA0003252768330000133
where min is a function of the minimum, DRIs the comprehensive distance between samples of the K-means clustering algorithm, okIs the kth cluster centroid, d (z)p,ok) Is the distance, w ', of the p-th candidate node to the k-th clustered centroid'kpThe weight of the distance from the p candidate node to the K clustering centroid, K is the set class number, upIs the abscissa, v, of the p-th candidate nodepIs the ordinate, u, of the p-th candidate nodekIs the abscissa, v, of the k-th cluster centroidkIs the ordinate of the kth cluster centroid.
The K-means clustering constraint is:
w′kp∈(0,1)
Figure BDA0003252768330000141
Figure BDA0003252768330000142
in order to not omit important information, the potential high-speed rail express delivery service volume and useful geographic economic factors are taken as the attributes of candidate nodes of a K-means clustering algorithm to form candidate nodes in a vector form, the K-means clustering algorithm is started to select the centroid and cluster the nodes according to the candidate nodes, the position of the centroid determined by iteration is the footfall of the optimal network node of the high-speed rail express delivery special train transportation network, and the clustering division result of the iteration is the respective jurisdiction division result of each optimal network node of the high-speed rail express delivery special train transportation network, so that the optimization of the high-speed rail express delivery special train transportation network is completed.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the constraint conditions of the K-means clustering algorithm further include: the high-speed rail express special network (a complete set of candidate nodes) is divided into K sub-networks, all the candidate nodes cannot belong to multiple sub-networks at the same time, and the K sub-networks cannot be empty sets. The sub-network is the clustering of the centroids of the K-means clustering algorithm, i.e. the respective jurisdiction of the optimal network nodes. The constraint condition is needed for making the scheme more fit with natural laws and engineering.
As shown in fig. 2, the high-speed rail express train transportation network optimization system according to the embodiment of the present invention adopts the high-speed rail express train transportation network optimization method, which includes: the system comprises a geographical economic attribute express demand analysis module, an express demand prediction module, a high-speed rail express sharing rate operation module and a high-speed rail express network planning module;
the geographical economic attribute express demand analysis module is used for establishing a geographical economic attribute express demand model and identifying useful geographical economic elements according to the geographical economic attribute express demand model;
the express delivery demand forecasting module is used for collecting useful geographic economic factors and historical data of express delivery business volume and training an express delivery demand forecasting model; predicting the potential express business volume according to the current useful geographic economic factor data through an express demand prediction model;
the express delivery sharing rate operation module for the high-speed rail is used for establishing and training a traffic express delivery sharing rate model according to historical data of express delivery service volume; solving the potential high-speed rail express delivery traffic through a traffic express delivery sharing rate model according to the potential express delivery traffic;
the high-speed rail express network planning module is used for optimizing the high-speed rail express special train transportation network according to useful geographical economic factors and potential high-speed rail express business volume through a K-means clustering algorithm.
As shown in fig. 3, the high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization device according to the embodiment of the present invention includes:
a memory for storing a computer program;
and the processor is used for realizing the steps of the high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization method when executing the computer program.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, wherein a computer program is stored on the computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for optimizing the high-speed rail express special train transportation network are realized.
In conclusion, the invention analyzes the relationship between express business volume and economic factors on geographical space distribution through the established geographical economic attribute express demand model, identifies useful geographical economic factors with high relevance, predicts the potential express business volume at each position on the potential geographical space through the express demand prediction model, researches the sharing rate of high-speed rail express through the traffic express sharing rate model, solves the potential high-speed rail express business volume, optimizes a high-speed rail express special train transportation network according to the useful geographical economic factors and the potential high-speed rail express business volume in the geographical space through a K-means clustering algorithm, effectively matches express demands, effectively utilizes transportation resources according to the actual sharing effect of the high-speed rail express, and solves the problems of incomplete planning and low efficiency of the high-speed rail express transportation network.
The principle and the implementation mode of the invention are explained by applying specific embodiments in the invention, and the description of the embodiments is only used for helping to understand the method and the core idea of the invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, there may be variations in the specific embodiments and the application scope, and in summary, the content of the present specification should not be construed as a limitation to the present invention.
It will be appreciated by those of ordinary skill in the art that the embodiments described herein are intended to assist the reader in understanding the principles of the invention and are to be construed as being without limitation to such specifically recited embodiments and examples. Those skilled in the art can make various other specific changes and combinations based on the teachings of the present invention without departing from the spirit of the invention, and these changes and combinations are within the scope of the invention.

Claims (10)

1. A high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, establishing a geographical economic attribute express demand model, and identifying useful geographical economic elements according to the geographical economic attribute express demand model;
s2, collecting historical data of useful geographical economic factors and express delivery traffic, and training an express delivery demand prediction model;
s3, forecasting the potential express business volume according to the current useful geographic economic factor data through an express demand forecasting model;
s4, establishing and training a traffic express sharing rate model according to historical data of express traffic;
s5, solving the potential high-speed rail express delivery traffic through a traffic express delivery sharing rate model according to the potential express delivery traffic;
and S6, optimizing the express special train transportation network of the high-speed rail according to the useful geographical economic factors and the potential express traffic of the high-speed rail through a K-means clustering algorithm.
2. The method for optimizing the transportation network of the express train of the high-speed rail according to claim 1, wherein the step S1 includes the following substeps:
s11, establishing a geographical economic attribute express delivery demand model, wherein the geographical economic attribute express delivery demand model has the expression:
Figure FDA0003252768320000011
wherein q isiExpress traffic for geographic unit i, (u)i,vi) Is the spatial coordinate of a geographic unit i, i is a closed interval [1, N]Positive integer of, N is the total number of geographic units, xi,jIs the geographic unit ith geographic economic element, beta0(ui,vi) For geographic unit i 0 th geographic economic element relevance degree, betaj(ui,vi) For the geographic unit ith geographic economic element relevance degree epsiloniBias coefficient for geographic unit i, and closed interval [0, M ] for j]The positive integer inside, M is the total number of the geographic economic elements;
s12, estimating the geographic economic element association degree of the geographic economic attribute express delivery demand model through a weighted least square method, wherein the expression of the weighted least square method is as follows:
Figure FDA0003252768320000021
Figure FDA0003252768320000022
Figure FDA0003252768320000023
Figure FDA0003252768320000024
Figure FDA0003252768320000025
Figure FDA0003252768320000026
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0003252768320000027
a vector is estimated for the degree of association of the geographical economic elements of the geographical unit i,
Figure FDA0003252768320000028
for the geographic unit ith geographic economic element relevance degree betaj(ui,vi) W (i) is a weight matrix for geographic unit i,
Figure FDA0003252768320000029
is a geographic unit i and a geographic unit i0Inter-weighted value, X is economic element matrix, XTA transposed matrix of the economic element matrix X, b a first inverse coefficient,
Figure FDA00032527683200000210
from geographic cell i to geographic cell i0Distance of (i)0Is a closed interval [1, N]The positive integer in the express delivery system is shown as q, the express delivery traffic vector is shown as q, and e is the base number of the natural logarithm;
and S13, evaluating the geographic economic element association degree estimation result through a Chichi information criterion method, and identifying useful geographic economic elements.
3. The optimization method for the high-speed rail express special train transportation network according to claim 2, wherein the express demand prediction model comprises L express demand prediction submodels, wherein L is a positive integer greater than 2; wherein, at least 1 express delivery demand prediction submodel is BP neural network, and it includes: an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer; at least 1 express demand forecasting sub-model is a grey forecasting model; at least 1 express demand forecasting sub-model is a cubic exponential smoothing model; the output of each express demand forecasting sub-model obtains the output of the express demand forecasting model through the following weighting types:
Figure FDA0003252768320000031
Figure FDA0003252768320000032
Se′m＝Sem×ηe
Figure FDA0003252768320000033
wherein y is the output of the express demand prediction model, ymFor the output of the mth express demand prediction submodel, αmIs a weighting coefficient, Se 'of the mth express delivery demand forecasting sub-model'mAverage prediction error, Se, of the mth express demand prediction submodelmAn original average prediction error, eta, of the mth express delivery demand prediction submodeleC is a second inverse coefficient.
4. The method for optimizing the transportation network for express special trains in high-speed railways according to claim 3, wherein the expression of the traffic express sharing rate model is as follows:
Figure FDA0003252768320000034
Un＝(γn，1Tn -1+γn，2Cn+γn，3En -1)·γn,4·Sn·γn,5·Rn
wherein, PnFor the nth traffic modeShare rate of (U)nIs the effect of the nth mode of transportation, H is the sum of modes of transportation, TnTime efficiency of the nth mode of transportation, gamman,1Is the time-dependent weight of the nth mode of transportation, CnFor convenience of the nth mode of transportation, gamman,2Is the convenience weight of the nth mode of transportation, EnCost of the nth mode of transportation, γn,3Is the cost weight of the nth mode of transportation, SnA factor of safety, gamma, for the nth mode of transportationn,4Is the safety factor weight, R, of the nth mode of transportationnIs the reliability coefficient of the nth mode of transportation, gamman,5And the reliability coefficient weight of the nth traffic mode.
5. The method for optimizing the transportation network of the express train of the high-speed rail according to claim 4, wherein the step S6 comprises the following substeps:
s61, mapping each geographic unit into candidate nodes of a K-means clustering algorithm one by one, and taking useful geographic economic factors and potential high-speed rail express traffic of each geographic unit as attributes of corresponding candidate nodes to obtain a candidate node set:
Z＝{z1,z2,z3,…,zN}
Figure FDA0003252768320000041
wherein Z is a candidate node set, Z1To zNAre respectively the 1 st to Nth candidate nodes, zp,1To zp,I+1Respectively 1 st to I +1 st attributes of the p candidate node, wherein I is the sum of useful geographic economic elements;
s62, setting the category number of the K-means clustering algorithm, optimizing the high-speed rail express special train transportation network according to the K-means clustering constraint and the K-means clustering objective function, and solving to obtain the optimal network node geographical position and the optimal network node jurisdiction of the high-speed rail express special train transportation network.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the K-means clustering objective function is:
Figure FDA0003252768320000042
Figure FDA0003252768320000043
where min is a function of the minimum, DRIs the comprehensive distance between samples of the K-means clustering algorithm, okIs the kth cluster centroid, d (z)p,ok) Is the distance, w ', of the p-th candidate node to the k-th clustered centroid'kpThe weight of the distance from the p candidate node to the K clustering centroid, K is the set class number, upIs the abscissa, v, of the p-th candidate nodepIs the ordinate, u, of the p-th candidate nodekIs the abscissa, v, of the k-th cluster centroidkIs the ordinate of the kth cluster centroid.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein the K-means clustering constraint is:
w′kp∈(0,1)
Figure FDA0003252768320000051
Figure FDA0003252768320000052
8. a high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization system is characterized in that the high-speed rail express special train transportation network optimization method of any one of claims 1 to 7 is adopted, and the method comprises the following steps: the system comprises a geographical economic attribute express demand analysis module, an express demand prediction module, a high-speed rail express sharing rate operation module and a high-speed rail express network planning module;
the geographical economic attribute express demand analysis module is used for establishing a geographical economic attribute express demand model and identifying useful geographical economic elements according to the geographical economic attribute express demand model;
the express delivery demand forecasting module is used for collecting useful geographic economic factors and historical data of express delivery business volume and training an express delivery demand forecasting model; predicting the potential express business volume according to the current useful geographic economic factor data through an express demand prediction model;
the express delivery sharing rate operation module for the high-speed rail is used for establishing and training a traffic express delivery sharing rate model according to historical data of express delivery service volume; solving the potential high-speed rail express delivery traffic through a traffic express delivery sharing rate model according to the potential express delivery traffic;
the high-speed rail express network planning module is used for optimizing the high-speed rail express special train transportation network according to useful geographical economic factors and potential high-speed rail express business volume through a K-means clustering algorithm.
9. The utility model provides a high-speed railway express delivery special train transportation network optimization equipment which characterized in that includes:
a memory for storing a computer program;
a processor for implementing the steps of the method for optimizing a high-speed rail express train transportation network according to any one of claims 1 to 7 when executing the computer program.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, having stored thereon a computer program which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method for optimizing a high-speed rail express train transportation network according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
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