CN113724495B - Traffic prediction method for city shared trip - Google Patents
Traffic prediction method for city shared trip Download PDFInfo
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- CN113724495B CN113724495B CN202110906993.9A CN202110906993A CN113724495B CN 113724495 B CN113724495 B CN 113724495B CN 202110906993 A CN202110906993 A CN 202110906993A CN 113724495 B CN113724495 B CN 113724495B
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
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- G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
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- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
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Abstract
The invention discloses a traffic prediction method for urban shared travel, which comprises the steps of obtaining a topological structure of an urban traffic network, obtaining travel modes and relevant data in the urban traffic network, and obtaining OD traffic demands in the urban traffic network; constructing an urban multi-mode random P2P ride sharing user balanced traffic network, and establishing traffic demand constraint and ride sharing matching constraint of the network; calculating the generalized travel cost of the travelers according to the travel time perceived by the travelers, the comfort loss in the vehicles and the multi-angle comprehensive consideration of the operation mechanism on the windward line; and based on the logic travel selection behavior and the random P2P co-multiplying user balance principle, carrying out flow distribution on the network to obtain the path traffic flow of the urban multi-mode complex network. The invention can effectively predict the traffic flow of the modern urban traffic network, thereby providing reliable basis for relevant departments to establish management measures and industry standards.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of urban traffic engineering, and particularly relates to a traffic prediction method for urban shared trips.
Background
With the continuous rise of the holding amount of private cars, traffic congestion has become one of the most important problems facing city managers. However, practical experience of various countries in relieving traffic congestion shows that: the road is repaired once, the problem of traffic jam cannot be solved radically, and even more people are encouraged to drive to get on the road invisibly. The windmilling trip (also called ride-sharing trip) gathers travelers with partially or completely overlapped trip tracks into one vehicle, reduces the number of motor vehicles on the road and relieves the problem of traffic jam by improving the utilization rate of space in the vehicle, and is currently practiced in various big cities in China. The urban traffic flow prediction method based on the change requirements not only considers the situations of windward trip, private car trip and bus trip in the traffic network, but also considers the subjective perception of travelers on the time of the trip, the comfort experience in the car and the on-line operation mechanism of the windward trip, so that the urban traffic flow prediction method is in line with the characteristics of modern urban traffic in a sharing mode.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems mentioned in the background art, the invention provides a traffic prediction method for urban shared trips, so that the traffic distribution of a modern urban traffic network can be predicted more efficiently and accurately.
In order to achieve the technical purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a traffic prediction method for city shared trips comprises the following steps:
(1) acquiring a topological structure of an urban traffic network, acquiring a travel mode and related data in the urban traffic network, and acquiring OD traffic demands in the urban traffic network;
(2) constructing an urban multi-mode random P2P ride sharing user balanced traffic network, and establishing traffic demand constraint and ride sharing matching constraint of the network;
(3) calculating the generalized travel cost of the travelers from the comprehensive consideration of the travel time perceived by the travelers, the comfort loss in the vehicles and the multi-angle operation mechanism on the windward line;
(4) based on the logic travel selection behavior and the random P2P co-riding user balance principle, flow distribution is carried out on the urban multi-mode random P2P co-riding user balance traffic network, and the path traffic flow of the network is obtained.
Further, in the step (1), the related data includes road alignment, road parameters, a traveler's time perception coefficient and inconvenience coefficient, a public transportation mileage parameter, and a tailwind time parameter, mileage parameter, and floating parameter.
Further, in the step (1), the manner of acquiring the OD traffic demand in the urban traffic network includes: travel demand investigation, OD demand reverse thrust, data obtained by an intelligent traffic monitoring system, mobile phone signaling data and GPS data.
Further, the specific process of step (2) is as follows:
firstly, inputting the topological structure of the urban traffic network and the traffic demand Q of OD to wwAnd the number i of each travel mode;
then, the following constraints are established:
and (3) traffic demand constraint:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing the flow of travelers in a selection mode I on a path p connecting an OD pair w, wherein I belongs to SD, I belongs to RD, I belongs to R, I belongs to PT and respectively corresponds to four travel modes of a private car driver, a tailgating passenger and a bus passenger, and I represents the set of all travel modes;
co-multiplication matching constraint:
wherein, gamma isr(i) Indicating that i e RD is mapped to the corresponding tailwind passenger, NiIndicating the number of passengers carried in the vehicle by the driver following the wind,representing the windward supply between OD and w,representing the downwind demand between OD and w.
Further, in step (3), the generalized travel cost of the traveler:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,travel time representing the traveler perception:
where ρ isiRefers to a time value parameter for the traveler who selects pattern i,andrespectively car travel time on path p and road segment a,andrespectively refer to the bus driving time on the path p and the road section a,indicating a link-to-path conversion coefficient, if the path p contains the link a,if not, then,
wherein, γiIs the inconvenience coefficient for the traveler of mode i;
wherein the content of the first and second substances,represents the trip cost of the traveler generated by windward,representing the mileage of a path p between OD and w, bi、And riRespectively is a time length parameter, a mileage parameter and a floating parameter of trip along the windmill,representing lagrange multipliers, Γ, generated by a co-product matching constraintrd(i) Representing the mapping of i e R downwind passengers to matched downwind drivers;
cfand ctFor the cost of each of the other miscellaneous items,representing the fare of the bus, cfRepresenting the fixed cost of a private car, ctRepresenting the cost of use of the private car.
Further, the specific process of step (4) is as follows:
based on the principle that logit travel selection behavior and random P2P share user balance, the flow distribution in the network follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing the probability that the traveler of OD to w selects to travel on the path p in the mode i, and theta is a parameter of Gumbel distribution which is met by a random error item in the logit distribution;
within the feasible set Ω of f, find the vector f*E omega meets the following formula to realize flow distribution:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,w is the set of all OD pairs in the urban traffic network, PwIs the set of all paths between OD pairs w; Ω represents a set of path flows that satisfy demand constraints and co-product matching constraints;represents fromIs removed andthe associated entry, superscript T, represents transpose.
Adopt the beneficial effect that above-mentioned technical scheme brought:
the method not only considers the conditions of windmill trip, private car trip and bus trip in the traffic network, but also considers the subjective perception of travelers on the time of trip, the comfort experience in cars and the operation mechanism on the windmill line, better conforms to the characteristics of modern urban traffic in a shared environment, can effectively predict the traffic flow of the modern urban traffic network, and thus provides reliable basis for management departments and related enterprises and public institutions to formulate management measures and industry standards.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a topological structure diagram of an urban transportation network in an embodiment;
fig. 3 is a travel demand diagram of the urban transportation network in the embodiment.
Detailed Description
The technical scheme of the invention is explained in detail in the following with the accompanying drawings.
The invention designs a traffic prediction method for city shared travel, as shown in fig. 1, and the specific implementation process is as follows.
1) And obtaining the topological structure of the complex network according to the urban traffic network.
According to the geographic position and the traffic elements of urban traffic, each area of a city is divided into a plurality of traffic cells. Each traffic cell can be a traffic travel generation source, which is called a traffic travel starting point or an O point; or may be an attraction source of the trip, called the destination or D of the trip. A starting point and an end pointA pair of origin-destination points, referred to as OD pairs, is denoted by w. The set of all OD pairs in the traffic network is denoted W. The traffic flow between W and OD is also called OD demand, QwAnd (4) showing.
And determining the travel modes adopted by travelers in the urban traffic network according to the traffic survey. One trip mode is called a trip mode and is denoted by i. The set of all travel patterns in the transportation network is denoted by I.
The traffic cells in a city are connected by a plurality of urban roads, which are called road segments in the network topology, denoted as a. The set of all road segments in the traffic network is denoted a. X for traffic flow of pattern i on route aa,iAnd (4) showing.
There are typically multiple routes available between OD and w, which are referred to as paths in the traffic network, denoted as p. P for the set of all paths between OD and wwAnd (4) showing. The set of all paths in the traffic network is denoted by P, P ═ u @wPw. For traffic flow of mode i on route p connecting OD pair wAnd (4) showing. The following relationships exist between the traffic flows of the paths and the road segments:
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,indicating a link-to-path conversion coefficient, if the path p contains the link a,if it is not included in the list, then,
according to the prior investigation, the topological structure of the urban traffic network is obtained as shown in figure 2. Travelers in this example network all own a private car. The network includes 4 types of travel modes: private car drivers, tailgating passengers and bus passengers respectively correspond to i e to SD, i e to RD, i to R and i to PT.
2) And acquiring travel cost parameters of the urban traffic network.
And related parameters such as road alignment, length and the like are obtained by visiting a design institute or a construction unit. And obtaining the online operation standard (comprising a time length parameter, a mileage parameter and a floating parameter) and the public transportation mileage parameter of the tailgating by online inquiry or on-site investigation. The time perception coefficient and the inconvenience perception coefficient of the traveler can be obtained by means of early questionnaire survey and later data fitting.
Through investigation, the values of the travel cost parameters in the urban transportation network are shown in table 1:
TABLE 1
3) And obtaining the current travel demand in the urban traffic network.
The method for acquiring the urban travel demand is more, and compared with the traditional methods, the method comprises travel demand investigation, OD demand reverse deduction and the like. The travel demand survey method comprises the steps of issuing survey questionnaires to urban residents for OD survey to obtain travel demand distribution, namely Q, among traffic districts of the cityw. The OD demand reverse-deducing method selectively and directly investigates the section traffic flow of part of road sections, and the OD demand between the traffic districts of the city is reversely deduced by the section traffic flow. OD demand back-stepping is applicable to situations where large-scale trip demand surveys cannot be conducted or are not conducted. In addition, with the development of mobile communication means, intelligent traffic monitoring systemThe data obtained by the system, the mobile phone signaling data and the GPS data are gradually applied to the process of obtaining the travel demand.
Through a series of methods for acquiring travel demands, the travel demands of the urban transportation network of the example network can be obtained as shown in fig. 3, namely, only one OD in the network has a demand Q for (1, 2)w=6。
4) Establishing an urban multi-mode random P2P shared user balanced traffic network model, and determining the constraints existing in the network model, wherein the specific flow is as follows:
step 1: in planning software or a program, according to the road network topological structure obtained in the step 1), marking each OD pair w, each road section a, each path p and each mode i (shown as a table 2) in the road network; inputting the traffic demand Q obtained in step 3)w。
The travel patterns and their numbers for this example network are shown in table 1. For OD pair (1, 2), there are three paths in the network: path 1, first → fourth; path 2, ② → ③; path 3 (c → c).
TABLE 2
Step 2: aiming at a network model, establishing a constraint:
traffic demand constraints
I ═ SD ═ RD ═ R ═ PT represents the 4 travel modes present in the network: private car drivers, tailgating passengers and bus passengers respectively correspond to i e to SD, i e to RD, i to R and i to PT.
② co-multiplication matching constraint
Γr(i) Showing that i belongs to RD and the downwind driver is mapped to i corresponding to RD′E.g. R, passenger on tailgating, i.e. gammar:RD→R。NiIs an integer and indicates the number of passengers carried in the vehicle by the tailrace driver i. In the example network are
The supply-demand relationship for the windward market is based on each OD pair.The amount of tailwind supply between OD pairs w is shown, which means the amount of flow between OD pairs w for the tailwind drivers i e.RD.Expressing the downwind demand between OD and w, refers to the downwind passenger Γ corresponding to OD to wr(i) e.R flow. In the example network are
5) Establishing a generalized travel cost function in a network, wherein the specific flow is as follows:
step 1: obtaining driving data of vehicles on multiple days on each road section through traffic investigation, and calculating a travel time calculation function of the road section; or using the existing empirical formula (such as BPR function) to obtain the travel time of the road network.
The segment travel time in this example network is calculated as in table 3:
TABLE 3
Step 2: and calculating the generalized travel cost of the travelers according to the travel cost parameters and the travel time of the road network and from the comprehensive consideration of the travel time perceived by the travelers, the comfort loss in the vehicles, the operation mechanism on the windward line and other angles. The specific calculation is as follows:
the generalized travel cost for a traveler of pattern i on path p connecting OD to w is expressed asThe notation in the generalized travel cost calculation formula is as follows:
ρiRefers to a time value parameter for the traveler who selects pattern i.Andrespectively car travel time on path p and road segment a,andrespectively refer to the bus driving time on the path p and the road section a.
γiIs the inconvenient perception coefficient of the traveler of pattern i. The loss of comfort in the vehicle comes from the process of sharing the space in the vehicle with strangers in the ride sharing behavior, so that only the windward driver i belongs to the RD and the windward passenger i belongs to the R, and the cost is borne.
Thirdly, an on-line operation mechanism of the downwind turbine:
represents the trip cost of the traveler through the on-wind App. bi、And riRespectively are a duration parameter, a mileage parameter and a floating parameter of the trip along the windmill.Representing lagrangian multipliers generated by a co-product matching constraint. Gamma-shapedrd(i) Indicating that i e R downwind passengers are mapped onto matching downwind drivers i' e RD, i.e. Γrd:R→RD。
Travel cost of travelers in urban traffic network through on-board AppComprises the following steps:
cfRepresenting a fixed cost parameter of a private car, ctRepresenting the operating cost of the private car.
So far, the generalized travel cost of each mode in the urban transportation network is as follows:
6) based on a logic trip selection behavior and a random P2P (peer-to-peer) common-riding user balance principle, flow distribution is carried out on the network to obtain the path traffic flow of the urban multi-mode complex network, and the specific flow is as follows:
step 1: based on the principle that logit travel selection behavior and random P2P share the user balance, the traffic distribution in the traffic network follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,representing the probability that the traveler of OD pair w chooses to travel on path p in pattern i, and θ refers to the parameter of the Gumbel distribution that is satisfied by the random error term in the logit distribution.
Let θ be 1, the traffic distribution principle in the urban traffic network follows:
step 2: traffic distribution is performed according to the following variational inequality:
within the feasible set Ω, find the vector f*E Ω satisfies the formula:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,Ω represents a feasible set of f, i.e., a set of path flows that satisfy traffic demand constraints and ride-sharing matching constraints; represents fromIs removed andthe item concerned.
By solving the variation inequality, the flow prediction, trip cost and trip time in the urban traffic network are as shown in table 4:
TABLE 4
The embodiments are only for illustrating the technical idea of the present invention, and the technical idea of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any modifications made on the basis of the technical scheme according to the technical idea of the present invention fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. A traffic prediction method for city shared trips is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) acquiring a topological structure of an urban traffic network, acquiring a travel mode and related data in the urban traffic network, and acquiring OD traffic demands in the urban traffic network;
(2) constructing an urban multi-mode random P2P ride sharing user balanced traffic network, and establishing traffic demand constraint and ride sharing matching constraint of the network;
(3) calculating the generalized travel cost of the travelers from the comprehensive consideration of the travel time perceived by the travelers, the comfort loss in the vehicles and the multi-angle operation mechanism on the windward line;
(4) based on a logic travel selection behavior and a random P2P co-riding user balancing principle, carrying out flow distribution on the urban multi-mode random P2P co-riding user balancing traffic network to obtain a path traffic flow of the network;
the specific process of the step (2) is as follows:
firstly, inputting the topological structure of the urban traffic network and the traffic demand Q of OD to wwAnd the number i of each travel mode;
then, the following constraints are established:
and (3) traffic demand constraint:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing the flow of travelers in a selection mode I on a path p connecting an OD pair w, wherein I belongs to SD, I belongs to RD, I belongs to R, I belongs to PT and respectively corresponds to four travel modes of a private car driver, a tailgating passenger and a bus passenger, and I represents the set of all travel modes;
co-multiplication matching constraint:
wherein, gamma isr(i) Indicating that i e RD is mapped to the corresponding tailwind passenger, NiIndicating the number of passengers carried in the vehicle by the driver following the wind,representing the windward supply between OD and w,representing the downwind demand between OD and w;
in step (3), the generalized travel cost of the traveler:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,travel time representing the traveler perception:
where ρ isiRefers to a time value parameter for the traveler who selects pattern i,andrespectively car travel time on path p and road segment a,andrespectively refer to the bus driving time on the path p and the road section a,indicating a link-to-path conversion coefficient, if the path p contains the link a,if not, then,
wherein, γiIs the inconvenience coefficient for the traveler of mode i;
wherein the content of the first and second substances,represents the trip cost of the traveler generated by windward,representing the mileage of a path p between OD and w, bi、And riRespectively is a time length parameter, a mileage parameter and a floating parameter of trip along the windmill,representing lagrange multipliers, Γ, generated by a co-product matching constraintrd(i) Representing the mapping of i e R downwind passengers to matched downwind drivers;
cfand ctFor the cost of each of the other miscellaneous items,representing the fare of the bus, cfRepresenting the fixed cost of a private car, ctRepresents the cost of use of a private car;
the specific process of the step (4) is as follows:
based on the principle of logic travel selection behavior and random P2P co-multiplying user balance, the flow distribution in the network follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing the probability that the traveler of OD to w selects to travel on the path p in the mode i, and theta is a parameter of Gumbel distribution which is met by a random error item in the logit distribution;
within the feasible set Ω of f, find the vector f*E omega meets the following formula to realize flow distribution:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,w is the set of all OD pairs in the urban traffic network, PwIs the set of all paths between OD pairs w; Ω represents a set of path flows that satisfy demand constraints and co-product matching constraints; represents fromIs removed andrelated items, superscript T denotes transpose;
in the step (1), the related data comprises road alignment, road parameters, time perception coefficient and inconvenience coefficient of travelers, public transportation mileage parameters, and time parameters, mileage parameters and floating parameters of windmills.
2. The traffic prediction method for city shared travel according to claim 1, wherein in step (1), the manner of obtaining the OD traffic demand in the city traffic network comprises: travel demand investigation, OD demand reverse thrust, data obtained by an intelligent traffic monitoring system, mobile phone signaling data and GPS data.
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