CN113703071B - Multimode precipitation prediction equipment based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion and correction method thereof - Google Patents
Multimode precipitation prediction equipment based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion and correction method thereof Download PDFInfo
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- CN113703071B CN113703071B CN202110964250.7A CN202110964250A CN113703071B CN 113703071 B CN113703071 B CN 113703071B CN 202110964250 A CN202110964250 A CN 202110964250A CN 113703071 B CN113703071 B CN 113703071B
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- 238000011084 recovery Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 15
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01W—METEOROLOGY
- G01W1/00—Meteorology
- G01W1/10—Devices for predicting weather conditions
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01W—METEOROLOGY
- G01W1/00—Meteorology
- G01W1/18—Testing or calibrating meteorological apparatus
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
- Y02A90/10—Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation
Abstract
The invention discloses a multimode rainfall forecasting device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion and a correcting method thereof, which belong to the technical field of weather forecast, and comprise a recovery device, a monitoring device and an anemometer, wherein the recovery device is fixedly arranged at the top of the monitoring device, the monitoring device comprises an anemometer, a fan housing is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the anemometer, and the anemometer is fixedly connected with the bottom of the anemometer at the top of the inner wall of the fan housing, and the beneficial effects of the invention are that: the motor drives the monitoring device to rotate, so that the air inlet is always aligned with the wind direction, the fan blade drives the rotating shaft to rotate at a rotating speed proportional to the wind speed under the action of wind force, the wind speed value is monitored in real time, the three groups of brackets simultaneously rotate, the temperature values measured by the three groups of temperature sensors are conveyed to the encoder, and the minimum value of the three groups of measured temperatures is taken during data processing, namely the accurate temperature value excluding solar radiation factors, and the effect of improving the temperature and wind speed accuracy is achieved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of weather forecast, in particular to a multimode rainfall forecast device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion and a correction method thereof.
Background
Precipitation probability forecast means that precipitation opportunities of 0.1 mm or more occur in 3 periods within 36 hours in the future in each forecast area, irrespective of precipitation time and area, wherein period 1 is every 12 hours.
For example, the prediction of 70% of precipitation in Taibei province means that there is a seven-ingredient chance of precipitation in Taibei province.
And correction of the precipitation prediction result is one of key links for improving the precipitation prediction precision.
The prior art has the following defects: the existing precipitation prediction order is that data required by various meteorological instruments are collected and measured, then the data are transmitted back to the ground center and are determined by the traditional precipitation amount and manual experience, the most important error sources in the atmospheric temperature measurement are the solar radiation errors of a temperature sensor and the wind speed errors of different altitudes, and the correction mode cannot accurately correct the existing precipitation prediction, so that the precipitation prediction has errors.
Therefore, it is necessary to invent a multimode precipitation prediction device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion and a correction method thereof.
Disclosure of Invention
Therefore, the invention provides a multimode precipitation prediction device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion, a wind vane transmits deflection angles to a motor through an angle sensor, the motor drives a monitoring device to rotate, an air inlet is always aligned with wind direction, a fan blade drives a rotating shaft to rotate at a rotating speed proportional to wind speed, the monitoring device rotates and simultaneously drives three groups of brackets to rotate, temperature values measured by the three groups of temperature sensors are transmitted to an encoder, and the minimum value of the three groups of measured temperatures is taken during data processing, namely the accurate temperature value excluding solar radiation factors, so that the problem of improving the accuracy of temperature and wind speed is solved.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: the multimode precipitation forecasting equipment based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion comprises a recovery device, a monitoring device and an anemometer, wherein the recovery device is fixedly arranged at the top of the monitoring device;
the wind control device comprises a supporting cylinder, an air inlet pipe is fixedly arranged on one side of the supporting cylinder, an air inlet is formed in one side of the outer wall of the wind cover, one end of the air inlet pipe is fixedly connected with the air inlet, a sleeve is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the supporting cylinder, one end of the air inlet pipe is connected with the inner wall of the sleeve, a base is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the sleeve, a rotating shaft is arranged on the inner wall of the sleeve, the bottom of the rotating shaft is movably connected with the base, the top of the rotating shaft is connected with the input end of the anemometer, and fan blades are fixedly arranged on the outer wall of the rotating shaft;
the fan housing bottom is equipped with the backup pad, the backup pad is equipped with two sets of, two sets of backup pad symmetry sets up, two sets of be equipped with the support between the backup pad, the support is equipped with three sets of, three sets of the support is with circumference trisection concatenation structure as an organic whole, support both ends and backup pad fixed connection.
Preferably, the fan housing base is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the fan housing, the first through holes are uniformly formed in the outer wall of the fan housing base, the second through holes are uniformly formed in the outer wall of the bottom of the sleeve, the first through holes are mutually connected with the second through holes, and the electromagnetic valve is fixedly arranged on the inner wall of the air inlet pipe.
Preferably, two sets of backup pad relative position fixed mounting has the stopper, the stopper is equipped with three sets of, stopper inboard and support outer wall fixed connection, fan housing base bottom and backup pad top fixed connection, the stopper inner wall is seted up flutedly, the recess inner wall grafting has the cardboard.
Preferably, the inner wall of the protection box is fixedly provided with an encoder, one side of the encoder is fixedly provided with a transmitter, one side of the support is provided with temperature sensors, three groups of temperature sensors are arranged, the three groups of temperature sensors are respectively arranged on the right sides of the three groups of supports, and the left sides of the supports are respectively provided with a digital air pressure sensor and a humidity sensor.
Preferably, the digital air pressure sensor, the temperature sensor, the anemometer and the humidity sensor are electrically connected with the encoder.
Preferably, the battery box is fixedly installed at the bottom of the supporting plate, the supporting column is fixedly installed at the bottom of the battery box, the wind vane is movably installed on the outer wall of the supporting column, and the angle sensor is fixedly installed at the bottom of the wind vane.
Preferably, the support ring is installed at the protection box top, protection box and support ring junction fixed mounting have the bearing, support ring top fixed mounting has the motor, motor bottom output and protection box top fixed connection, support ring top and recovery unit bottom fixed connection.
Preferably, the recovery device comprises a shell, a top cover is arranged at the top of the shell, supporting rods are uniformly arranged at the joint of the shell and the top cover, an elastic leather sheath is fixedly arranged on the inner wall of the shell, an impact block is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the elastic leather sheath, and an umbrella cavity is arranged between the top of the elastic leather sheath and the top cover.
Preferably, the powder barrel is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the shell, the arc generator is fixedly arranged at one side of the powder barrel, the top of the powder barrel is provided with the top block, and the top block is connected with the bottom of the impact block.
A multimode precipitation prediction correction method based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion is characterized in that: the correction flow is that,
s1: the device is launched to a designated height through launching a sounding rocket, the middle and lower troposphere is detected with high precision in the falling process of the sounding instrument, and the temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction profiles with high vertical resolution in the boundary layer can be accurately obtained through the temperature sensor, the digital air pressure sensor, the humidity sensor, the wind vane and the anemometer carried by the device, converted into electric signals through the encoder, and then sent through amplitude modulation or frequency modulation by the transmitter, and the receiving head receives, demodulates and records on the ground;
s2: firstly, carrying out frequency matching processing on precipitation forecast data EC, GFS and WARMS of each mode, wherein EC, GFS, WARMS and GZ are set to be in a south China mesoscale mode, and a basic algorithm is frequency matching and dynamic weight;
s3: three sets of data of ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are obtained through frequency matching treatment;
wherein ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are EC, GFS and WARMS data after frequency matching treatment;
s4: combining ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM with the latest GZ original precipitation forecast data to form a fusion data set;
s5: when ECfm is greater than 30 mm, calculating TS weight coefficient;
the TS weight is used for correcting the weather of the remarkable rainfall, and the matching degree of the rainfall forecast of each mode in the early stage with the live condition in each magnitude is calculated;
s6: when the weight coefficient sum is greater than 0, carrying out fusion correction according to the dynamic weight and the additional weight in proportion;
s7: when the weight coefficient sum is equal to 0, fusing according to fixed weight;
wherein the fixed weight coefficient is the additional weight plus one/mode number;
s8: when ECfm is less than or equal to 30 mm, calculating a PC weight coefficient;
the PC weight is used for correcting general weather, and for precipitation and no precipitation of various orders, on the basis of background data, other fusion data with high-to-low historical weather accuracy are sequentially used for filling and emptying the background data;
s9: when the weight coefficient sum is greater than 0, carrying out fusion correction according to the dynamic weight in proportion;
s10: when the weight coefficient sum is equal to 0, the correction data is replaced with ECfm.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows:
1. the wind vane transmits deflection angles to the motor through the angle sensor, the motor drives the monitoring device to rotate, so that the air inlet is always aligned with the wind direction, the fan blades drive the rotating shaft to rotate at a rotating speed proportional to the wind speed under the action of the wind force, the anemometer monitors the wind speed value in real time, the monitoring device drives three groups of brackets to rotate while rotating, always one temperature sensor faces away from the sun, solar radiation received by the temperature sensor is isolated by the brackets, the temperature values detected by the three groups of temperature sensors are transmitted to the encoder, and the minimum value of the three groups of detected temperatures is taken during data processing, namely the accurate temperature value excluding solar radiation factors, so that the temperature and wind speed accuracy are improved;
2. according to the weather and strong rainfall forecasting performance characteristics of each mode, some extra settings are made, for example, the weather accuracy after the global mode frequency is matched is highest, the weather accuracy of the original forecast of the mesoscale mode is lower, but the strong rainfall capturing capacity is better, namely, the strong rainfall capturing capacity is set to be 4-10 months, when the monitoring value of the device is more than 1 mm, the strong rainfall capturing capacity is added into the fusion, otherwise, three sets of data of ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are selected for fusion, and only two sets of data of ECFM and GFSFM are selected for fusion in 11-3 months, so that the effect of accurately correcting the rainfall forecast is achieved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a front view of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of a bracket mounting structure according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic view of a sleeve mounting structure of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic cross-sectional view of a wind control device according to the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a digital air pressure sensor mounting structure according to the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a schematic view of a temperature sensor mounting structure of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a schematic cross-sectional view of the recycling apparatus of the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram of an encoder mounting structure of the present invention;
fig. 9 is a schematic diagram of the operation of the present invention.
In the figure: the recovery device 100, the housing 110, the top cover 120, the support bar 130, the elastic holster 140, the impact block 150, the umbrella chamber 160, the powder bucket 170, the arc generator 180, the top block 190, the monitoring device 200, the support ring 210, the motor 211, the bearing 220, the protection box 230, the transmitter 231, the encoder 232, the anemometer 240, the fan cover 241, the fan cover base 250, the first through hole 251, the support plate 260, the stopper 261, the groove 262, the bracket 270, the temperature sensor 271, the digital air pressure sensor 272, the humidity sensor 273, the cardboard 274, the battery box 280, the support column 290, the wind vane 291, the angle sensor 292, the wind control device 300, the support cylinder 310, the air inlet pipe 320, the air inlet 330, the electromagnetic valve 340, the sleeve 350, the second through hole 360, the base 370, the rotating shaft 380, and the fan blade 390.
Detailed Description
The preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings, it being understood that the preferred embodiments described herein are for illustration and explanation of the present invention only, and are not intended to limit the present invention.
1, referring to fig. 1-8, the multimode rainfall forecasting device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion provided by the invention comprises a recovery device 100, a monitoring device 200 and an anemometer 300, wherein the recovery device 100 is fixedly arranged at the top of the monitoring device 200, the monitoring device 200 comprises an anemometer 240, a fan cover 241 is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the anemometer 240, the anemometer 300 is arranged at the top of the inner wall of the fan cover 241 and is fixedly connected with the bottom of the anemometer 240, and a protection box 230 is fixedly arranged at the top of the anemometer 240;
the wind control device 300 comprises a support cylinder 310, an air inlet pipe 320 is fixedly arranged on one side of the support cylinder 310, an air inlet 330 is formed on one side of the outer wall of a fan cover 241, one end of the air inlet pipe 320 is fixedly connected with the air inlet 330, a sleeve 350 is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the support cylinder 310, one end of the air inlet pipe 320 is connected with the inner wall of the sleeve 350, a base 370 is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the sleeve 350, a rotating shaft 380 is arranged on the inner wall of the sleeve 350, the bottom of the rotating shaft 380 is movably connected with the base 370, the top of the rotating shaft 380 is connected with the input end of an anemometer 240, a fan blade 390 is fixedly arranged on the outer wall of the rotating shaft 380, the support cylinder 310 has a fixing effect on the air inlet 320, the air inlet 330 has an effect of guiding flowing air into the support cylinder 310 through the air inlet pipe 320, the whole sensing part of the anemometer 240 is arranged and connected with the rotating shaft 380, and the fan blade 390 drives the rotating shaft 380 to rotate at a rotating speed proportional to the wind speed under the wind force, so that the anemometer 240 monitors the wind speed value;
the bottom of the fan cover 241 is provided with the supporting plates 260, the supporting plates 260 are provided with two groups of supporting plates 260, the two groups of supporting plates 260 are symmetrically arranged, a bracket 270 is arranged between the two groups of supporting plates 260, three groups of brackets 270 are used for splicing circumferences into an integrated structure in a trisection way, two ends of the bracket 270 are fixedly connected with the supporting plates 260, the supporting plates 260 have a fixing effect on the brackets 270, when the monitoring device 200 rotates, the three groups of brackets 270 are driven to rotate, no matter which face of the three groups of temperature sensors 271 on the brackets 270 faces the sun, one temperature sensor 271 always faces away from the sun, solar radiation received by the three groups of temperature sensors 271 is isolated by the brackets 270, temperature values measured by the three groups of temperature sensors 271 are conveyed to the encoder 232, and the minimum value of the temperatures measured by the three groups of temperature sensors is taken during data processing, namely the accurate temperature value excluding solar radiation factors;
further, a fan housing base 250 is fixedly installed at the bottom of the fan housing 241, a first through hole 251 is uniformly formed in the outer wall of the fan housing base 250, a second through hole 360 is uniformly formed in the outer wall of the bottom of the sleeve 350, the first through hole 251 is connected with the second through hole 360, an electromagnetic valve 340 is fixedly installed on the inner wall of the air inlet pipe 320, specifically, the fan housing 241 has a fixing function on the fan housing base 250, air in the sleeve 350 is discharged outwards through the second through hole 360 and the first through hole 251, and the electromagnetic valve 340 has an effect of controlling the on-off of the air in the air inlet pipe 320;
further, the two sets of support plates 260 are fixedly provided with limiting blocks 261 in relative positions, the limiting blocks 261 are provided with three sets, the inner sides of the limiting blocks 261 are fixedly connected with the outer walls of the supports 270, the bottom of the fan housing base 250 is fixedly connected with the top of the support plates 260, the inner walls of the limiting blocks 261 are provided with grooves 262, the inner walls of the grooves 262 are inserted with paperboards 274, the support plates 260 have a fixing function on the limiting blocks 261 and the supports 270, the grooves 262 have a mounting function on the paperboards 274, the paperboards 274 have a protecting function on the temperature sensors 271, the digital air pressure sensors 272 and the humidity sensors 273, and the paperboards 274 have a function of increasing monitoring efficiency;
further, the inner wall of the protection box 230 is fixedly provided with an encoder 232, one side of the encoder 232 is fixedly provided with a transmitter 231, one side of the bracket 270 is provided with temperature sensors 271, the temperature sensors 271 are provided with three groups, the three groups of temperature sensors 271 are respectively arranged on the right sides of the three groups of brackets 270, the left sides of the brackets 270 are respectively provided with a digital air pressure sensor 272 and a humidity sensor 273, the digital air pressure sensor 272, the temperature sensor 271, the anemometer 240 and the humidity sensor 273 are electrically connected with the encoder 232, specifically, the encoder 232 is a device for programming and converting signals or data into signal forms which can be used for communication, transmission and storage, the transmitter 231 is a device capable of transmitting signals at a certain frequency, the digital air pressure sensor 272 is an instrument for measuring the atmospheric pressure, the digital air pressure sensor 271 has the function of accurately measuring the value of the external atmospheric pressure, the temperature sensor 271 is a sensor capable of sensing the temperature and converting into a usable output signal, the anemometer 240 is an instrument for measuring the air flow rate, and the anemometer 273 has the function of monitoring the air humidity;
further, the bottom of the supporting plate 260 is fixedly provided with the battery box 280, the bottom of the battery box 280 is fixedly provided with the supporting column 290, the outer wall of the supporting column 290 is movably provided with the wind vane 291, the bottom of the wind vane 291 is fixedly provided with the angle sensor 292, in particular, the battery box 280 has a power supply function to the device, the supporting column 290 has a mounting function to the wind vane 291, when the angle sensor 292 is connected to the wind vane 291, the shaft rotates for 1/16 circle, the angle sensor counts once, when the angle sensor rotates in one direction, the count increases, when the rotation direction changes, the count decreases, when the angle sensor is initialized, the count value of the angle sensor is set to 0, the angle sensor 292 is reset through programming, an electric signal is transmitted to the motor 211, the motor 211 drives the monitoring device 200 to rotate integrally, the air inlet 330 always keeps consistent with the front end of the wind vane 291, the wind vane 291 is an instrument for measuring the wind direction, the wind vane is an object in an asymmetric shape, the center of gravity point is fixed on a vertical shaft, when the wind blows once, the wind rotates, and when the wind flows to generate larger resistance, one end for wind direction generates wind direction rotation, and the wind direction is displayed;
further, the supporting ring 210 is installed at the top of the protection box 230, the bearing 220 is fixedly installed at the joint of the protection box 230 and the supporting ring 210, the motor 211 is fixedly installed at the top of the supporting ring 210, the output end at the bottom of the motor 211 is fixedly connected with the top of the protection box 230, the top of the supporting ring 210 is fixedly connected with the bottom of the recovery device 100, the recovery device 100 comprises the shell 110, the top cover 120 is installed at the top of the shell 110, the supporting rods 130 are uniformly installed at the joint of the shell 110 and the top cover 120, the elastic leather sheath 140 is fixedly installed on the inner wall of the shell 110, the impact block 150 is fixedly installed at the bottom of the elastic leather sheath 140, the umbrella cavity 160 is arranged between the top of the elastic leather sheath 140 and the top cover 120, specifically, the bearing 220 has the function of movably connecting the protection box 230 and the supporting ring 210, the motor 211 drives the protection box 230 to rotate at the bottom of the supporting ring 210 through the motor 211, the servo motor 211 is arranged as a servo motor, the servo motor can control the speed, the position accuracy is very accurate, the voltage signal can be converted into torque and the rotation speed to drive the control object, the shell 110 has the fixing and supporting functions on the supporting ring 210, the supporting rods 130 are made of fragile plastic rods, the material, the impact blocks are made of the material, the impact block 150 and the top cover 120 impact block is made of the fragile rubber, and the supporting rod is the fragile rubber sleeve, and the cap 120 is easy to fall off from the shell 110, and the rubber sleeve 120 is made of the spherical material;
further, the bottom of the shell 110 is fixedly provided with the powder barrel 170, one side of the powder barrel 170 is fixedly provided with the arc generator 180, the top of the powder barrel 170 is provided with the top block 190, the top block 190 is connected with the bottom of the impact block 150, powder is filled in the powder barrel 170 and is formed by mechanically mixing potassium nitrate, charcoal and sulfur, and under the action of proper external energy, the powder can quickly and regularly burn by itself, and a large amount of high-temperature gas substances are generated, and impact effect is provided for the top block 190, so that the top block 190 generates thrust to push the impact block 150 to strike the top cover 120, the arc generator 180 is composed of a low-voltage arc line and a high-voltage high-frequency ignition line, the voltage between electrodes is very low and the current is very high, and the powder in the powder barrel 170 is ignited.
The application process of the invention is as follows: when the invention is used, the worker in the field needs to launch the device to a designated height by launching a sonde rocket, the electric arc generator 180 discharges to generate high temperature in the falling process of the sonde to explode the gunpowder barrel 170, the explosion generates shock waves to push the impact block 150 to push the top cover 120 of the parachute in the elastic leather sheath 140, the parachute is opened to enable the device to slowly fall, the wind vane 291 collides with air, the deflection angle is transmitted to the motor 211 through the angle sensor 292, the motor 211 drives the monitoring device 200 to integrally rotate, the air inlet 330 always aligns with the wind direction, the fan blade 390 drives the rotating shaft 380 to rotate at a rotating speed proportional to the wind speed under the action of wind force, the anemometer 240 monitors the wind speed value in real time, the monitoring device 200 rotates and drives the three groups of brackets 270 to rotate, so that the single temperature sensor 271 always faces away from the sun, the solar radiation received by the single temperature sensor 271 is isolated by the brackets 270, the temperature values measured by the three groups of temperature sensors 271 are transmitted to the encoder 232, the minimum value of the temperatures measured by the three groups of temperature sensors 271 is taken during data processing, namely the accurate temperature value excluding solar radiation factors, the digital air pressure sensor 272 and the humidity sensor 273 work, the encoder 232 converts the temperature values into electric signals, and then the electric signals are transmitted by the transmitter 231 through amplitude modulation or frequency modulation, and the receiving head receives, demodulates and records on the ground to perform high-precision detection on the middle and lower troposphere.
Example 2:
referring to fig. 9 of the specification, a multimode precipitation prediction correction method based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion is characterized in that: the correction flow is that,
s1: the device is launched to a designated height by launching a sounding rocket, the middle and lower troposphere is detected with high precision in the falling process of the sounding instrument, the temperature sensor 271, the digital air pressure sensor 272, the humidity sensor 273, the wind vane 291 and the anemometer 240 carried by the device can accurately acquire the temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction profile with high vertical resolution in the boundary layer, the temperature, the humidity, the air pressure, the wind speed and the wind direction profile are converted into electric signals by the encoder 232, the electric signals are sent by the transmitter 231 through amplitude modulation or frequency modulation, the receiving head receives, demodulates and records on the ground,
s2: firstly, carrying out frequency matching processing on precipitation forecast data EC, GFS and WARMS of each mode, wherein EC, GFS, WARMS and GZ are set to be in a south China mesoscale mode, and a basic algorithm is frequency matching and dynamic weight;
s3: three sets of data of ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are obtained through frequency matching treatment;
wherein ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are EC, GFS and WARMS data after frequency matching treatment;
s4: combining ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM with the latest GZ original precipitation forecast data to form a fusion data set;
s5: when ECfm is greater than 30 mm, calculating TS weight coefficient;
the TS weight is used for correcting the weather of the remarkable rainfall, and the matching degree of the rainfall forecast of each mode in the early stage with the live condition in each magnitude is calculated;
s6: when the weight coefficient sum is greater than 0, carrying out fusion correction according to the dynamic weight and the additional weight in proportion;
s7: when the weight coefficient sum is equal to 0, fusing according to fixed weight;
wherein the fixed weight coefficient is the additional weight plus one/mode number;
s8: when ECfm is less than or equal to 30 mm, calculating a PC weight coefficient;
the PC weight is used for correcting general weather, and for precipitation and no precipitation of various orders, on the basis of background data, other fusion data with high-to-low historical weather accuracy are sequentially used for filling and emptying the background data;
s9: when the weight coefficient sum is greater than 0, carrying out fusion correction according to the dynamic weight in proportion;
s10: when the weight coefficient sum is equal to 0, the correction data is replaced with ECfm.
Further, in the PC weight coefficient fusion part, some extra settings are made according to the weather and strong rainfall forecasting performance characteristics of each mode, for example, the weather accuracy after the global mode frequency is matched is highest, the weather accuracy of the original forecast of the mesoscale mode is lower, but the strong rainfall capturing capacity is better, namely, the setting is in 4-10 months, when the GZ forecast is more than 1 millimeter, the GZ is added into the fusion, otherwise, three sets of data of ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are selected for fusion, and only two sets of data of ECFM and GFSFM are selected for fusion in 11-3 months, so that the effect of accurately correcting the rainfall forecast is achieved, the GZ is set as original rainfall forecast data obtained after the real-time monitoring of the device, the EC is large data visualization system of European fine grid data, which is a large data visualization system of all main meteorological factors taking EC mode data issued by China weather bureau as data sources is designed, the GFS is a global forecast system of the national environment forecast of the data source, the global forecast system of the data source can reach the maximum 4.25 degrees of the global resolution of 0.25 degrees every day;
further, two sets of dynamic weight coefficients are used for correcting general weather, namely PC weight and TS weight, for each level of precipitation and no precipitation, on the basis of background data, other fusion data with high accuracy of historical weather from high to low are sequentially used for filling and emptying the background data, the latter is used for correcting the weather of obvious precipitation, the matching degree of each model of precipitation forecast on each level and the live condition is calculated, the coefficients are added by 1 when the forecast and the live condition are in the same precipitation level interval, fusion is distributed according to the proportion of the total coefficients, the distinction of the general weather and the weather of obvious precipitation is determined by the background data, when the prediction amount of the background data is larger than a certain value, the weather of obvious precipitation is determined by adopting TS weight coefficients, and other conditions are general precipitation and PC weight coefficients.
The working process of the invention is as follows: when the invention is used, the personnel in the field need that the device is launched to a designated height by launching a sounding rocket, the middle and lower troposphere is detected with high precision in the falling process of the sounding instrument, the high vertical resolution temperature, humidity, air pressure, air speed and wind direction profile in the boundary layer is obtained, the temperature, humidity, air pressure and wind direction profile is converted into electric signals through an encoder, the electric signals are sent by a transmitter through amplitude modulation or frequency modulation, a receiving head receives, demodulates and records the latest data GZ of activity, the latest data GZ is subjected to scientific calculation and multiple times of inspection, four sets of data of ECFM, GFSFM, WARMSFM and GZ are finally selected for fusion, the ECFM with the highest historical weather score is used as background data, the distinguishing standard of obvious rainfall weather is determined to be more than 30 mm for the background data forecast, and the additional weight is 0.5, so that the rainfall forecast is corrected accurately.
While the invention has been described in detail in the foregoing general description and specific examples, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that modifications and improvements can be made thereto. Accordingly, such modifications or improvements may be made without departing from the spirit of the invention and are intended to be within the scope of the invention as claimed.
Claims (7)
1. Multimode precipitation forecast equipment based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion, including recovery unit (100), monitoring devices (200) and wind control device (300), its characterized in that: the recovery device (100) is fixedly arranged at the top of the monitoring device (200), the monitoring device (200) comprises an anemometer (240), a fan cover (241) is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the anemometer (240), the air control device (300) is arranged at the top of the inner wall of the fan cover (241) and is fixedly connected with the bottom of the anemometer (240), and a protection box (230) is fixedly arranged at the top of the anemometer (240);
the wind control device (300) comprises a supporting cylinder (310), an air inlet pipe (320) is fixedly arranged on one side of the supporting cylinder (310), an air inlet (330) is formed in one side of the outer wall of a wind cover (241), one end of the air inlet pipe (320) is fixedly connected with the air inlet (330), a sleeve (350) is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the supporting cylinder (310), one end of the air inlet pipe (320) is mutually connected with the inner wall of the sleeve (350), a base (370) is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the sleeve (350), a rotating shaft (380) is arranged on the inner wall of the sleeve (350), the bottom of the rotating shaft (380) is movably connected with the base (370), the top of the rotating shaft (380) is connected with the input end of the wind speed meter (240), and a fan blade (390) is fixedly arranged on the outer wall of the rotating shaft (380).
The bottom of the fan cover (241) is provided with two groups of support plates (260), the two groups of support plates (260) are symmetrically arranged, a support (270) is arranged between the two groups of support plates (260), the support (270) is provided with three groups, the three groups of support (270) are used for splicing the circumferences into an integral structure in a trisection manner, and two ends of the support (270) are fixedly connected with the support plates (260);
the protection box is characterized in that an encoder (232) is fixedly arranged on the inner wall of the protection box (230), a transmitter (231) is fixedly arranged on one side of the encoder (232), a temperature sensor (271) is arranged on one side of the bracket (270), three groups of temperature sensors (271) are arranged, the three groups of temperature sensors (271) are respectively arranged on the right sides of the three groups of brackets (270), and a digital air pressure sensor (272) and a humidity sensor (273) are respectively arranged on the left sides of the brackets (270);
the bottom of the supporting plate (260) is fixedly provided with a battery box (280), the bottom of the battery box (280) is fixedly provided with a supporting column (290), the outer wall of the supporting column (290) is movably provided with a wind vane (291), and the bottom of the wind vane (291) is fixedly provided with an angle sensor (292);
support ring (210) are installed at protection box (230) top, protection box (230) and support ring (210) junction fixed mounting have bearing (220), support ring (210) top fixed mounting has motor (211), motor (211) bottom output and protection box (230) top fixed connection, support ring (210) top and recovery unit (100) bottom fixed connection.
2. A multimode precipitation prediction device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the fan cover is characterized in that a fan cover base (250) is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the fan cover (241), first through holes (251) are uniformly formed in the outer wall of the fan cover base (250), second through holes (360) are uniformly formed in the outer wall of the bottom of the sleeve (350), the first through holes (251) are mutually connected with the second through holes (360), and electromagnetic valves (340) are fixedly arranged on the inner wall of the air inlet pipe (320).
3. A multimode precipitation prediction device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion as claimed in claim 1, wherein: two sets of backup pad (260) relative position fixed mounting has stopper (261), stopper (261) are equipped with three group, stopper (261) inboard and support (270) outer wall fixed connection, fan housing base (250) bottom and backup pad (260) top fixed connection, recess (262) have been seted up to stopper (261) inner wall, recess (262) inner wall grafting has cardboard (274).
4. A multimode precipitation prediction device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the digital air pressure sensor (272), the temperature sensor (271), the anemometer (240) and the humidity sensor (273) are electrically connected with the encoder (232).
5. A multimode precipitation prediction device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the recovery device (100) comprises a shell (110), a top cover (120) is arranged at the top of the shell (110), supporting rods (130) are uniformly arranged at the joint of the shell (110) and the top cover (120), an elastic leather sheath (140) is fixedly arranged on the inner wall of the shell (110), an impact block (150) is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the elastic leather sheath (140), and an umbrella cavity (160) is formed between the top of the elastic leather sheath (140) and the top cover (120).
6. A multimode precipitation prediction device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion as claimed in claim 5, wherein: the electric arc generator is characterized in that a gunpowder barrel (170) is fixedly arranged at the bottom of the shell (110), an electric arc generator (180) is fixedly arranged on one side of the gunpowder barrel (170), a top block (190) is arranged at the top of the gunpowder barrel (170), and the top block (190) is connected with the bottom of the impact block (150).
7. A multimode precipitation prediction correction method based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion is characterized in that: the multimode precipitation prediction device based on frequency matching and dynamic fusion according to any one of claims 1-6 is adopted, the correction flow is that,
s1: the device is launched to a designated height through launching a sounding rocket, the middle and lower troposphere is detected with high precision in the falling process of the sounding instrument, the temperature sensor (271), the digital air pressure sensor (272), the humidity sensor (273), the wind vane (291) and the anemometer (240) carried by the device can accurately acquire the temperature, the humidity, the air pressure, the wind speed and the wind direction profile with high vertical resolution in the boundary layer, the temperature, the humidity, the air pressure, the wind speed and the wind direction profile are converted into electric signals through the encoder (232), and then the electric signals are transmitted through amplitude modulation or frequency modulation by the transmitter (231), and the receiving head receives, demodulates and records on the ground;
s2: firstly, carrying out frequency matching processing on precipitation forecast data EC, GFS and WARMS of each mode, wherein EC, GFS, WARMS and GZ are set to be in a south China mesoscale mode, and a basic algorithm is frequency matching and dynamic weight;
s3: three sets of data of ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are obtained through frequency matching treatment;
wherein ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM are EC, GFS and WARMS data after frequency matching treatment;
s4: combining ECFM, GFSFM and WARMSFM with the latest GZ original precipitation forecast data to form a fusion data set;
s5: when ECfm is greater than 30 mm, calculating TS weight coefficient;
the TS weight is used for correcting the weather of the remarkable rainfall, and the matching degree of the rainfall forecast of each mode in the early stage with the live condition in each magnitude is calculated;
s6: when the weight coefficient sum is greater than 0, carrying out fusion correction according to the dynamic weight and the additional weight in proportion;
s7: when the weight coefficient sum is equal to 0, fusing according to fixed weight;
wherein the fixed weight coefficient is the additional weight plus one/mode number;
s8: when ECfm is less than or equal to 30 mm, calculating a PC weight coefficient;
the PC weight is used for correcting general weather, and for precipitation and no precipitation of various orders, on the basis of background data, other fusion data with high-to-low historical weather accuracy are sequentially used for filling and emptying the background data;
s9: when the weight coefficient sum is greater than 0, carrying out fusion correction according to the dynamic weight in proportion;
s10: when the weight coefficient sum is equal to 0, the correction data is replaced with ECfm.
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