CN113675845A - Power distribution network risk assessment method based on benchmark and problem scenes - Google Patents
Power distribution network risk assessment method based on benchmark and problem scenes Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power distribution network risk assessment method based on a benchmark and a problem scene, and belongs to the technical field of intelligent analysis and control of a power system. Analyzing and calculating the operation risk of the power distribution network caused by the disconnection of the line or the equipment N-1 from the two layers of the reference scene and the problem scene respectively, and determining a damage severity value based on the risk evaluation results obtained from the two layers; calculating to obtain a risk value of the power distribution network; and further evaluating the risk level of the power distribution network. The method can realize the omnibearing disclosure and quantitative evaluation of the operation risk of the power distribution network under the condition of reference and problem scene risk, so as to improve the intelligent processing speed of the fault risk and improve the safe and stable operation capability of the power distribution network. The method is beneficial to operators to optimize the normal operation mode of the power distribution network and improve the risk control target of the power distribution network.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of intelligent analysis and control of electric power systems, and particularly relates to a power distribution network risk assessment method based on a benchmark and a problem scene.
Background
The current power distribution network operation mode is complicated, the equipment load aggravates and the power supply capacity is not enough, and the problem scene is outstanding day by day, and the pressure of power distribution network safe operation is showing and is increasing, and the intelligent early warning work of power distribution network risk need be done promptly, improves power distribution network risk perception and prevention control ability. Statistics show that about 80% of blackout incidents are caused by power distribution system faults. Because the feeder lines of the power distribution network are radial, the load loss after the fault of the power distribution network becomes the key point for reflecting the safety of the power distribution network, and compared with a mature N-1 static safety assessment method applied to a power transmission network, a safety assessment method more suitable for the power distribution network needs to be researched. Especially, the equipment protection malfunction is caused by artificial mistaken touch and misoperation, so that a large amount of power supplies and equipment are cut off, huge loss is caused, important users are seriously affected, and the equipment cannot be recovered in a short time.
In view of the serious consequences and the influence caused by the line fault, a power distribution network risk quantitative evaluation means specially aiming at the conditions of benchmark real-time scanning and problems is not available at present, and the existing power grid risk evaluation technology generally focuses on equipment or section out-of-limit evaluation and early warning on risks and has less consideration on load loss and important user influence. Therefore, it is necessary to research a related power distribution network risk comprehensive evaluation technology specially aiming at the scenes such as line faults, line maintenance and the like, optimize a normal operation mode of the power distribution network, and perform targeted analysis and comprehensive evaluation on reference and problem scenes, so that operators can make perception and prevention pre-control of the fault risks in advance, and the safe and stable operation of the power distribution network is ensured.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects in the prior art and provides a power distribution network risk assessment method based on a reference scene and a problem scene.
In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows.
In a first aspect, the invention provides a power distribution network risk assessment method based on benchmarks and problem scenes, which comprises the following processes:
performing risk assessment on the power distribution network from two layers of a benchmark scene and a problem scene respectively;
determining a hazard severity value based on risk assessment results obtained by the two layers;
calculating to obtain a risk value of the power distribution network based on the hazard severity value and the risk probability;
and evaluating the risk level of the power distribution network based on the risk value of the power distribution network.
Optionally, the performing risk assessment on the power distribution network from the reference layer surface includes:
and (3) carrying out N-1 one-by-one on-off setting on 10kV/20kV outgoing feeder lines in the power distribution network model, and analyzing the load loss condition of power distribution network equipment and the condition of important user power supply under the condition of the power distribution network N-1 according to section data information.
Optionally, the risk assessment performed on the power distribution network from the reference layer is performed in a periodic scanning manner.
Optionally, the performing risk assessment on the power distribution network from the problem scene layer includes:
and carrying out distribution network risk analysis based on the problem scene, and considering important user power failure risk, urban network user power failure risk and line heavy overload risk.
Optionally, the risk value calculation formula of the power distribution network is as follows:
distribution network risk value F:
F＝H×P (1)
wherein H is a risk hazard value, and P is a risk probability value;
the risk hazard value H is calculated as:
H＝Hp×Hs (2)
wherein Hp is a damage severity value, and Hs is a social influence factor.
Optionally, the risk probability is calculated by the formula:
the risk probability value P is calculated as:
P＝Pi×Ps×Pw×Pt (3)
wherein Pi is a line type factor, Ps is a line state influence factor, Pw is a field construction operation factor, and Pt is a maintenance time factor.
Optionally, the distribution network risk level is classified into six levels: the risk level is higher and more serious when the level number is smaller.
Optionally, the assessing a risk level of the power distribution network based on the risk value of the power distribution network includes:
according to the distribution network risk value, performing risk assessment grading:
(a) class i risk (extra): 100 is less than or equal to the risk value
(b) Class ii risk (significant): 80 or more and a risk value of less than 100
(c) Class iii risk (greater): 60 is less than or equal to the risk value of less than 80
(d) Grade iv risk (general): 40 is less than or equal to the risk value of less than 60
(e) Risk class v (slight): 20 is less than or equal to the risk value of less than 40
(f) Class vi (acceptable risk): risk value < 20
The greater the risk value, the higher the risk rating, indicating a more severe risk.
In a second aspect, the present invention further provides a power distribution network risk assessment apparatus based on benchmarks and problem scenes, including:
the risk assessment module is used for performing risk assessment on the power distribution network from two levels of a benchmark scene and a problem scene respectively;
the risk degree determining module is used for determining a hazard severity degree value based on risk evaluation results obtained by the two layers;
the risk value calculation module is used for calculating to obtain a risk value of the power distribution network based on the harm severity value and the risk probability;
and the risk grade judging module is used for evaluating the risk grade of the power distribution network based on the risk value of the power distribution network.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects: the method analyzes and calculates the operation risk of the power distribution network caused by the disconnection of the line or equipment N-1 from a reference layer and a problem scene, considers the power failure risk and the supply transfer strategy of important users, and carries out grading evaluation according to a function weighting fusion mode based on the influence power failure range and the loss user condition after the disconnection of the line or equipment. The method can realize the omnibearing disclosure and quantitative evaluation of the operation risk of the power distribution network under the condition of reference and problem scene risk, so as to improve the intelligent processing speed of the fault risk and improve the safe and stable operation capability of a large power grid. The method is beneficial to operators to optimize the normal operation mode of the power distribution network and improve the risk control target of the power distribution network.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereby.
Example 1
The invention discloses a power distribution network risk assessment method based on reference and problem scenes, which is shown in figure 1 and comprises the following steps:
step one, acquiring section data
And acquiring the topological structure and equipment parameter information of the current power grid model and the whole-grid state estimation section data based on the power grid model.
Step two, power distribution network benchmark risk assessment
And under the condition that the power distribution network normally operates, N-1 outgoing feeder lines of 10kV/20kV in the power distribution network model are subjected to one-by-one on-off setting in a real-time periodic scanning mode, and according to the section data information obtained in the step one, a topology analysis function is automatically called to analyze the load loss condition of the power distribution network equipment and the power supply condition of important users under the condition of the power distribution network N-1.
The load loss information mainly includes: the loss load power, the loss user number, the loss urban area and non-urban area user number and the loss important user information. Here, the important user power supply conditions mainly include: the power supply feeder line, the power supply main transformer, the power supply bus and the load, the transferable strategy and other information.
Thirdly, evaluating risks of problem scenes of the power distribution network
Aiming at risks existing in a certain period under specific conditions such as distribution network power failure plan list import, power supply protection plan list import and the like, distribution network risk analysis and risk list (risk equipment, risk level, risk description, influence on important users and the like) automatic generation based on problem scenes are carried out, and important user power failure risks, urban network user power failure risks, line heavy overload risks and the like are considered.
Step four, calculating risk assessment value
Topology analysis is performed on the power distribution network influence area condition and the load loss condition caused by each line or equipment fault obtained in the reference and problem scene states, the hazard (hazard severity value) and the risk occurrence possibility (probability) of the risk are determined according to the risk in the reference and problem scene states, the magnitude of the risk value is comprehensively evaluated, and the distribution network risk value F is calculated according to a formula (1):
F＝H×P (1)
wherein H is a risk hazard value, and P is a risk probability value. The risk hazard value H is calculated according to the formula (2).
H＝Hp×Hs (2)
Wherein Hp is a value of the hazard severity (the value range is 0-6000), and the specific value is determined by the investigation regulations of the power accident event. Hs is a social influence factor, and generally takes the values shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 social influence factor
The risk probability value P is calculated as shown in equation (3):
P＝Pi×Ps×Pw×Pt (3)
wherein Pi is a line type factor, the line type comprises a cable, an overhead line and a hybrid line, and the value is 1 when the risk does not affect important users or power protection users; when the risk affects important users or power protection users, the highest value is taken according to the table 2:
TABLE 2 line type factor
Ps is a line condition influence factor, and as shown in table 3, values are different according to whether the line is overloaded or not.
TABLE 3 line condition factor
Pw is a field construction operation factor and is determined by a power failure plan list, and specific values are shown in Table 4:
TABLE 4 field construction work factor
Pt is a maintenance time factor, and when the risk is caused by maintenance work, corresponding values are taken according to the maintenance time, and the specific values are shown in table 5:
TABLE 5 repair time factor
Step four, evaluating the risk level of the power distribution network based on the risk value
The risk of the distribution network is divided into six grades: class i risk (extra large), class ii risk (significant), class iii risk (greater), class iv risk (general), class v risk (minor), and class vi risk (acceptable).
According to the distribution network risk value, performing risk assessment grading:
(a) class i risk (extra): 100 is less than or equal to the risk value
(b) Class ii risk (significant): 80 or more and a risk value of less than 100
(c) Class iii risk (greater): 60 is less than or equal to the risk value of less than 80
(d) Grade iv risk (general): 40 is less than or equal to the risk value of less than 60
(e) Risk class v (slight): 20 is less than or equal to the risk value of less than 40
(f) Class vi (acceptable risk): risk value < 20
Here, a smaller number of levels indicates a higher level of risk, i.e., a more serious risk.
And then, according to the established risk evaluation grade division of the power distribution network, carrying out risk rating on the calculated power distribution network risk value, and realizing quantitative evaluation of the power distribution network operation risk under the condition of the N-1 fault of the line or equipment.
Example 2
Based on the same inventive concept as embodiment 1, the invention also provides a power distribution network risk assessment device based on the benchmark and problem scenes, which comprises:
the risk assessment module is used for performing risk assessment on the power distribution network from two levels of a benchmark scene and a problem scene respectively;
the risk degree determining module is used for determining a hazard severity degree value based on risk evaluation results obtained by the two layers;
the risk value calculation module is used for calculating to obtain a risk value of the power distribution network based on the harm severity value and the risk probability;
and the risk grade judging module is used for evaluating the risk grade of the power distribution network based on the risk value of the power distribution network.
The concrete implementation scheme of each module in the device is shown in the steps and the processes of the method in the embodiment 1.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, several modifications and variations can be made without departing from the technical principle of the present invention, and these modifications and variations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. A power distribution network risk assessment method based on reference and problem scenes is characterized by comprising the following processes:
performing risk assessment on lines or equipment of the power distribution network from two levels of a benchmark scene and a problem scene respectively;
determining a hazard severity value based on risk assessment results obtained by the two layers;
calculating to obtain a risk value of the power distribution network based on the hazard severity value and the risk probability;
and evaluating the risk level of the power distribution network based on the risk value of the power distribution network.
2. The power distribution network risk assessment method based on the benchmark and the problem scenario as claimed in claim 1, wherein the risk assessment from the benchmark level comprises:
and (3) carrying out N-1 one-by-one on-off setting on 10kV/20kV outgoing feeder lines in the power distribution network model, and analyzing the load loss condition of power distribution network equipment and the condition of important user power supply under the condition of the power distribution network N-1 according to section data information.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the risk assessment from the baseline level is performed in a periodic scanning manner.
4. The power distribution network risk assessment method based on the benchmark and the problem scenario as claimed in claim 1, wherein the risk assessment from the problem scenario level comprises:
and carrying out power distribution network risk analysis based on the problem scene, and considering important user power failure risk, urban network user power failure risk and line heavy overload risk.
5. The power distribution network risk assessment method based on the benchmark and the problem scenario as claimed in claim 1, wherein the risk value calculation formula of the power distribution network is:
distribution network risk value F:
F=H×P （1）
wherein H is a risk hazard value, and P is a risk probability value;
the risk hazard value H is calculated as:
H= Hp×Hs （2）
wherein Hp is a damage severity value, and Hs is a social influence factor.
6. The power distribution network risk assessment method based on the benchmark and the problem scenario as claimed in claim 5, wherein the risk probability is calculated by the following formula:
the risk probability value P is calculated as:
P= Pi×Ps×Pw×Pt （3）
wherein Pi is a line type factor, Ps is a line state influence factor, Pw is a field construction operation factor, and Pt is a maintenance time factor.
7. The power distribution network risk assessment method based on the benchmark and the problem scenario as claimed in claim 1, wherein the distribution network risk level is divided into six levels: the risk level is higher and more serious when the level number is smaller.
8. The power distribution network risk assessment method based on the benchmark and the problem scenario as claimed in claim 7, wherein the assessment of the power distribution network risk level based on the risk value of the power distribution network comprises:
according to the distribution network risk value, performing risk assessment grading:
(a) class i risk (extra): 100 is less than or equal to the risk value
(b) Class ii risk (significant): 80 or more and a risk value of less than 100
(c) Class iii risk (greater): 60 is less than or equal to the risk value of less than 80
(d) Grade iv risk (general): 40 is less than or equal to the risk value of less than 60
(e) Risk class v (slight): 20 is less than or equal to the risk value of less than 40
(f) Class vi (acceptable risk): risk value < 20
The greater the risk value, the higher the risk rating, indicating a more severe risk.
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