CN113673878A - Method for evaluating construction benefits of 110 kV power transmission and transformation project - Google Patents

Method for evaluating construction benefits of 110 kV power transmission and transformation project Download PDF

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CN113673878A
CN113673878A CN202110971973.XA CN202110971973A CN113673878A CN 113673878 A CN113673878 A CN 113673878A CN 202110971973 A CN202110971973 A CN 202110971973A CN 113673878 A CN113673878 A CN 113673878A
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power transmission
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张锡泉
杜平
汪雨晨
张宁
常夏
尚楠
靳宇阳
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Shaanxi Energy Research Institute Co Ltd
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    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
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    • G06N—COMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N7/00—Computing arrangements based on specific mathematical models
    • G06N7/02—Computing arrangements based on specific mathematical models using fuzzy logic
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

The application relates to a method for evaluating construction benefits of a 110 kV power transmission and transformation project, which comprises the steps of constructing an evaluation index library; on the basis of the optimal evaluation matrix, comprehensively evaluating and analyzing the applicability of the indexes, screening an index library, and removing unsuitable indexes to form an evaluation index system; and collecting data, calculating objective weight according to data conditions by using an entropy weight method, determining subjective weight by using an analytic hierarchy process, and finally forming comprehensive weight. Establishing a fuzzy evaluation model to judge the importance degree of the index, and combining the judgment result to form a judgment matrix; and performing operation by a method provided by fuzzy mathematics, and performing normalization processing and computational analysis on the judgment matrix by combining a basic principle of the fuzzy mathematics to obtain a quantitative comprehensive evaluation result. The technology can provide reference for work such as project planning compilation, investment plan compilation and project construction management, and simultaneously guides power grid planning, optimizes the grid structure and optimizes the investment scale, thereby effectively avoiding the problems of investment redundancy and lower investment efficiency.

Description

Method for evaluating construction benefits of 110 kV power transmission and transformation project
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of power transmission and transformation engineering construction, in particular to a method for evaluating construction benefits of a 110 kV power transmission and transformation engineering.
Background
The power grid investment project benefit post-evaluation belongs to a relatively new field in the current power investment management work, the theory and the method are not mature enough, the condition of popularization is not met, in addition, the quantitative calculation aiming at investment income is always an important problem for hindering investment fine management, and the research results of the domestic and foreign project economic benefit evaluation method are scattered and are not formed into a system. A scientific and operable method system for evaluating the economic benefits of the power transmission and transformation project is urgently needed to be established so as to comprehensively and objectively analyze the advantages and the defects of the investment project and provide a reference basis for solving the problems in project operation and improving the project operation benefits. By combining the internal and external situations of the operation and development of the power grid enterprise, and depending on the investment target and the purpose of the power transmission and transformation project, the mode innovation of project economic benefit measurement and calculation is excavated, a scientific economic benefit evaluation system is provided, and the method has important supporting and guaranteeing effects on improving lean management and control capability of a company, actively adapting to challenges and opportunities brought by marketization, analyzing problems and excavating experiences.
Disclosure of Invention
The application provides a construction benefit evaluation method for 110 kV power transmission and transformation engineering, which aims to solve the problem that a project construction benefit evaluation index system is established and an evaluation model is established scientifically and comprehensively and improve the practicability of an evaluation result.
The technical scheme adopted by the application for solving the technical problems is as follows:
a method for evaluating construction benefits of a 110 kV power transmission and transformation project comprises the following steps:
carrying out system analysis on the related benefits of the construction of the 110 kV power transmission and transformation project, and constructing an evaluation index library;
based on the preferred evaluation matrix, carrying out comprehensive evaluation analysis on the applicability of the evaluation indexes in the index library to form an evaluation index system;
index data in an evaluation index system is collected, and objective weight calculation is carried out according to data conditions by using an entropy weight method;
determining subjective weight by using an analytic hierarchy process, and finally forming comprehensive weight;
constructing a fuzzy evaluation model, judging the importance degree of the index, and combining the judgment result to form a judgment matrix;
and performing operation by a method provided by fuzzy mathematics, and performing normalization processing and computational analysis on the judgment matrix by combining a basic principle of the fuzzy mathematics to obtain a quantitative comprehensive evaluation result.
Optionally, the performing comprehensive evaluation analysis on the applicability of the evaluation index in the index library to form an evaluation index system includes:
and comprehensively evaluating and analyzing the suitability of the indexes from five aspects of comprehensive representativeness, quantifiability, comparability, replaceability and comprehensive guidance, screening the index library, and removing the indexes which do not meet the preset standard to form an evaluation index system.
Optionally, the method further includes:
decomposing the evaluation index system into different hierarchical structures according to the sequence of the total target, each layer of sub-targets, the evaluation criteria to the specific backup switching scheme;
solving and judging the characteristic vector of the matrix to obtain the priority weight of each element of each level to a certain element of the previous level;
and the final weight of each alternative scheme to the total target is hierarchically merged by adopting a weighted sum mode.
Optionally, the performing objective weight calculation according to data conditions by using an entropy weight method includes:
the weight of each index is determined according to the information quantity transmitted to the decision maker by each index.
Optionally, the method further includes:
if the information entropy of a certain index is smaller, the index is judged to be worth of variation to be larger, the amount of provided information is larger, the effect played in the comprehensive evaluation is larger, and the weight is larger;
the larger the information entropy of a certain index is, the smaller the degree of variation of the index value is determined to be, the smaller the amount of information to be provided, the smaller the role played in the comprehensive evaluation is, and the smaller the weight thereof is.
The technical scheme provided by the application comprises the following beneficial technical effects:
according to the 110 kV power transmission and transformation project construction benefit evaluation method, a strategic target is implemented, the complex internal and external situations of the current power grid enterprise are combined, a benefit evaluation system is innovated from four dimensions of economic benefit, safe operation, social influence and planning effect according to the power transmission and transformation project construction target and the input-output characteristic, the power grid operation condition after project implementation can be mastered by means of relevant indexes in a comprehensive benefit evaluation system, and the operation condition of the power grid can be known. Through evaluation on the aspect of the performance of the power grid, a clear result is provided for judging the improvement degree and effect of the power supply capacity of the power grid. And early warning is carried out on the condition that the operation condition of the power grid does not reach the expected effect or the development requirement of long-term production and life in the future cannot be met. Meanwhile, through comprehensive benefit evaluation, the capital allocation condition of power grid investment can be monitored, a benefit relation generated by power grid capital investment and engineering formation is reflected, reference is provided for power grid investment decision management, and effectiveness and scientificity of power grid construction project implementation are effectively guaranteed.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments are briefly described below, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without any inventive effort.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for evaluating construction benefits of a 110 kv transmission and transformation project according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical solutions in the present application better understood by those skilled in the art, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application; it should be apparent that the described embodiments are only some, but not all embodiments of the application. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
The technology for evaluating the construction benefit of the 110 kV power transmission and transformation project based on the fuzzy evaluation method, as shown in fig. 1, comprises the following steps:
s1, establishing an evaluation index library, performing system analysis by combining with the construction related benefits of 110 kV power transmission and transformation engineering, combing and summarizing by combining with related theoretical research results, and summarizing representative indexes of a condensation part by combining with the characteristics of specific micro projects and construction contents; and by combining the output benefit summary of the power transmission and transformation project of the related power grid enterprise, a certain reference can be provided for the construction of an index system.
The index library is constructed according to the following main basis and thought:
(1) the comprehensive data processing method is combined with related theoretical research results to sort and summarize, and can be combined with specific microscopic project characteristics and construction contents to summarize representative indexes of a refining part;
(2) by combining the experience and the output benefit summary of the implementation of the power transmission and transformation project of the related power grid enterprise, a certain reference can be provided for the construction of an index system;
(3) by combining with the development of works of national power grid companies on construction requirements of power transmission and transformation project, benefit review and recheck, post-project evaluation and the like, and the departure of relevant management systems and files, guidance can be provided for the selection and combing of indexes;
(4) the characteristics of the power transmission and transformation project are combined for mining, the construction content system is sorted, the construction target is analyzed, and target guidance and clear requirements can be provided for the construction of the index system.
And (3) excavating benefit indexes from the dimensions of economic benefit, safe operation, social influence and the like, and constructing a multi-dimensional benefit evaluation index library as follows:
TABLE 1 evaluation index database
Figure BDA0003226140760000031
Figure BDA0003226140760000041
Figure BDA0003226140760000051
And S2, by depending on the experience of personnel, carrying out comprehensive evaluation analysis on the index applicability from five aspects of comprehensive representativeness, quantifiability, comparability, substitutability and comprehensive guidance based on an optimal evaluation matrix, screening an index library, and rejecting unsuitable indexes to form an evaluation index system.
TABLE 2 index applicability analysis Table
Figure BDA0003226140760000052
Figure BDA0003226140760000061
Figure BDA0003226140760000071
Figure BDA0003226140760000081
And (3) performing index applicability evaluation analysis by combining a preferred judgment matrix method, and constructing an index system for comprehensively improving the operability and the leadability of multi-dimensional benefit evaluation as follows:
TABLE 3-3 comprehensive Performance index System
Figure BDA0003226140760000082
Figure BDA0003226140760000091
And S3, collecting data, namely performing objective weight calculation according to data conditions by using an entropy weight method on the one hand, and determining subjective weight by using an analytic hierarchy process on the other hand to finally form comprehensive weight.
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a decision-making method that decomposes elements always related to decision-making into levels of targets, criteria, schemes, etc., and performs qualitative and quantitative analysis based on the levels. The hierarchical analysis method is mainly characterized in that a decision problem is divided into different evaluation hierarchical structures from top to bottom according to a general target, sub targets of each layer and an evaluation criterion, the evaluation hierarchical structures can be respectively a target layer, a criterion layer and a scheme layer, then the priority weight of each element of each layer to a certain element of the previous layer is obtained by combining the actual relation among different layers by using a method of solving and judging a matrix characteristic vector, and finally the final weight of each alternative scheme to the general target is hierarchically merged by a method of weighting sum, and the maximum final weight is the optimal scheme.
Firstly, according to the importance scale theory, constructing a pairwise comparison judgment matrix A:
A＝(aij)n×n(i,j＝1,2,…,n)
then, the judgment matrix A is normalized, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003226140760000092
the weight is calculated by the formula:
Figure BDA0003226140760000101
generally, if the information entropy of a certain index is smaller, the index is worth changing to a larger extent, the amount of information provided is larger, the effect played in the comprehensive evaluation is larger, and the weight is larger. Conversely, the larger the information entropy of a certain index is, the smaller the degree of variation of the index value is, the smaller the amount of information to be provided is, the smaller the role played in the overall evaluation is, and the smaller the weight thereof is. The entropy weight method is an objective comprehensive evaluation method, and the weight of the method is mainly determined according to the information quantity transmitted by each index to a decision maker. The entropy weight method comprises the following calculation steps:
(1) and setting n evaluation indexes to make decision and evaluate m candidate schemes.
xik: and (4) an estimated value of the evaluation index i of the scheme k to be selected. x is the number ofi *: the ideal value of the index i is evaluated. x is the number ofi *Evaluation of the factor of value
The index characteristics vary, x being the profitability indexi *The larger the better; for the index of loss (inverse index), xi *The smaller the index, the better the index (the positive index may be obtained).
(2) Definition of xikFor x ofi *Proximity Dik：
Figure BDA0003226140760000102
(3)DikNormalization treatment:
Figure BDA0003226140760000103
(4) overall entropy: the entropy E of the m candidate schemes evaluated by the n evaluation indexes is as follows:
Figure BDA0003226140760000104
(5) overall entropy when the indicator is independent of the scheme:
if the relative importance of the evaluation index is irrelevant to the scheme to be selected, the entropy is calculated by the following formula:
Figure BDA0003226140760000105
in the formula:
Figure BDA0003226140760000106
thus, the uncertainty of the relative importance of the evaluation index i to the candidate decision evaluation can be determined by the following conditional entropy.
(6) Conditional entropy of evaluation index i
Figure BDA0003226140760000107
As can be seen from the extreme nature of the entropy,
Figure BDA0003226140760000108
namely di1 ≈ di2 ≈ … dik, the closer to the equality, the larger the conditional entropy is, and the larger the uncertainty of the evaluation index to the evaluation decision of the candidate scheme is.
(7) And carrying out normalization processing on the formula to obtain an entropy value representing the importance of the evaluation decision of the evaluation index i.
Figure BDA0003226140760000109
And S4, constructing a fuzzy evaluation model, judging and scoring the importance degree of the index, finally forming a judgment matrix by combining the judgment result, carrying out operation by a method provided by fuzzy mathematics, and carrying out normalization processing and computational analysis by combining the basic principle of the fuzzy mathematics to obtain a quantitative comprehensive evaluation result.
Determining an evaluation index set U ═ U1,U2,…,UmV and comment set V ═ V1,V2,…,VnAnd m represents the number of the evaluation indexes in the evaluation index set, and n represents the number of the comments in the comment set.
And (4) carrying out quantitative calculation analysis on the risk evaluation index set U, namely analyzing the membership degree of an evaluation object to the comment set V from each index, thereby obtaining a fuzzy relation matrix of the secondary index.
Further, a specific method for establishing the fuzzy relation matrix is as follows:
Figure BDA0003226140760000111
wherein m is 5 and represents the number of grades in the comment set; p is the number of the second-level indexes corresponding to the first-level indexes; r isijThe slave factor U of the evaluation object is showniSee the pair VjDegree of membership of the level comment. A certain factor UiThe expression in the evaluation target is expressed by a fuzzy vector.
The weight vector W is synthesized with the fuzzy relation matrix R of the evaluation target, whereby the comprehensive evaluation vector B of the evaluation target can be obtained. Namely:
Figure BDA0003226140760000112
b in the above vector1The degree of membership of the evaluation index to the comment set as a whole is represented.
In summary, the technology for evaluating the construction benefit of the 110 kv power transmission and transformation project based on the fuzzy evaluation method provided by the embodiment of the application comprises the following steps: s1, establishing an evaluation index library, performing system analysis by combining with the construction related benefits of 110 kV power transmission and transformation engineering, combing and summarizing by combining with related theoretical research results, and summarizing representative indexes of a condensation part by combining with the characteristics of specific micro projects and construction contents; and by combining the output benefit summary of the power transmission and transformation project of the related power grid enterprise, a certain reference can be provided for the construction of the index system. And S2, by depending on the experience of personnel, carrying out comprehensive evaluation analysis on the index applicability from five aspects of comprehensive representativeness, quantifiability, comparability, replaceability and comprehensive guidance based on an optimal evaluation matrix, screening an index library, and rejecting unsuitable indexes to form an evaluation index system. And S3, collecting data, namely performing objective weight calculation according to data conditions by using an entropy weight method on the one hand, and determining subjective weight by using an analytic hierarchy process on the other hand to finally form comprehensive weight. And S4, constructing a fuzzy evaluation model, judging by evaluators according to experience of the evaluators according to relevant data and information of project construction based on main factors influencing the problems, combining understanding and analysis of relevant problems in the working process and main consciousness of the evaluators, respectively making fuzzy evaluations of different degrees such as 'big', middle ', small', no ', high', middle ', low', excellent ', good, inferior' or 'good, generally, poor' and the like on complex problems, judging and scoring the importance degree of indexes by relevant experts, finally forming a judgment matrix by combining judgment results, carrying out operation by a method provided by fuzzy mathematics, combining a basic principle of the fuzzy mathematics, carrying out normalization processing and computational analysis, and obtaining a quantitative comprehensive evaluation result. The technology can provide reference for work such as project planning and making, investment plan making, project construction management and the like, and simultaneously guides power grid planning, optimizes the grid structure and optimizes the investment scale, thereby effectively avoiding the problems of investment redundancy and low investment efficiency, promoting the business operation vigor and ensuring continuous investment income. And (3) making an investment strategy according with the development situation and the development status of the power grid, improving the power transmission efficiency to the maximum extent and ensuring the input-output level. Under the current large background of quality improvement and efficiency improvement, the capital investment and output benefits of power grid enterprises are effectively improved, and the rationality and scientificity of capital investment are ensured.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that all or part of the processes for implementing the methods of the embodiments described above can be implemented by a computer program, which can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, to instruct associated hardware. The computer readable storage medium is a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a read-only memory or a random access memory.
It is to be noted that the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that an article or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
The above description is merely exemplary of the present application and is presented to enable those skilled in the art to understand and practice the present application. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the application. Thus, the present application is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
It is to be understood that the present application is not limited to what has been described above and shown in the drawings, and that various modifications and changes may be made without departing from the scope thereof. The scope of the application is limited only by the appended claims.

Claims (5)

1. A method for evaluating construction benefits of a 110 kV power transmission and transformation project is characterized by comprising the following steps:
carrying out system analysis on the related benefits of the construction of the 110 kV power transmission and transformation project, and constructing an evaluation index library;
based on the preferred evaluation matrix, carrying out comprehensive evaluation analysis on the applicability of the evaluation indexes in the index library to form an evaluation index system;
index data in an evaluation index system is collected, and objective weight calculation is carried out according to data conditions by using an entropy weight method;
determining subjective weight by using an analytic hierarchy process, and finally forming comprehensive weight;
constructing a fuzzy evaluation model, judging the importance degree of the index, and combining the judgment result to form a judgment matrix;
and performing operation by a method provided by fuzzy mathematics, and performing normalization processing and computational analysis on the judgment matrix by combining a basic principle of the fuzzy mathematics to obtain a quantitative comprehensive evaluation result.
2. The method for evaluating the construction benefit of the 110 kV power transmission and transformation project according to claim 1, wherein the comprehensive evaluation analysis is performed on the applicability of the evaluation indexes in the index library to form an evaluation index system, and the method comprises the following steps:
and comprehensively evaluating and analyzing the suitability of the indexes from five aspects of comprehensive representativeness, quantifiability, comparability, replaceability and comprehensive guidance, screening the index library, and removing the indexes which do not meet the preset standard to form an evaluation index system.
3. The method for evaluating the construction benefit of the 110 kV power transmission and transformation project according to claim 1, wherein the method further comprises the following steps:
decomposing the evaluation index system into different hierarchical structures according to the sequence of the total target, each layer of sub-targets, the evaluation criteria to the specific backup switching scheme;
solving and judging the characteristic vector of the matrix to obtain the priority weight of each element of each layer to a certain element of the previous layer;
and the final weight of each alternative scheme to the total target is hierarchically merged by adopting a weighted sum mode.
4. The method for evaluating the construction benefit of the 110 kilovolt power transmission and transformation project according to claim 1, wherein the objective weight calculation according to the data condition by using an entropy weight method comprises the following steps:
the weight of each index is determined according to the information quantity transmitted to the decision maker by each index.
5. The method for evaluating the construction benefit of the 110 kV power transmission and transformation project according to claim 4, wherein the method further comprises the following steps:
if the information entropy of a certain index is smaller, the index is judged to be worth of variation to be larger, the amount of provided information is larger, the function played in comprehensive evaluation is larger, and the weight is larger;
the larger the information entropy of a certain index is, the smaller the degree of variation of the index value is determined to be, the smaller the amount of information to be provided, the smaller the role played in the overall evaluation is, and the smaller the weight thereof is.
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CN110689240A (en) * 2019-09-12 2020-01-14 国网山东省电力公司寿光市供电公司 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for economic operation of power distribution network
CN111047175A (en) * 2019-12-06 2020-04-21 国家电网有限公司 Power grid investment project optimization method and system

Patent Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109272179A (en) * 2017-07-17 2019-01-25 国网青海省电力公司经济技术研究院 A kind of solar power generation returns of investment overall evaluation system implementation method
CN109858843A (en) * 2019-04-10 2019-06-07 国网新疆电力有限公司经济技术研究院 A kind of power distribution network investment decision evaluation method
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