CN113659573A - New energy and energy storage cooperative working method - Google Patents

New energy and energy storage cooperative working method Download PDF

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CN113659573A
CN113659573A CN202110956659.4A CN202110956659A CN113659573A CN 113659573 A CN113659573 A CN 113659573A CN 202110956659 A CN202110956659 A CN 202110956659A CN 113659573 A CN113659573 A CN 113659573A
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power
deviation
new energy
energy
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黄婧杰
欧阳顺
冷婷
袁亮
杨洪明
徐志强
华中生
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Changsha University of Science and Technology
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    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/004—Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/28—Arrangements for balancing of the load in a network by storage of energy
    • H02J3/32—Arrangements for balancing of the load in a network by storage of energy using batteries with converting means
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
    • H02J3/46—Controlling of the sharing of output between the generators, converters, or transformers
    • H02J3/466—Scheduling the operation of the generators, e.g. connecting or disconnecting generators to meet a given demand
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
    • H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]

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Abstract

The invention discloses a new energy and energy storage cooperative working method, and relates to the field of new energy. The invention comprises the following steps: obtaining predicted generating power and predicted deviation power according to the historical data of the new energy prediction and the actual generating power; establishing a declaration strategy: taking a predicted value of the predicted power generation power as an upper limit of the time-reporting power; according to the strategy II, the predicted value of the generated power after the deviation power is superposed is used as the upper limit of the reported power; the energy storage real-time power is combined, and the new energy deviation power is reduced; selecting a reporting strategy according to the predicted deviation power vector and the probability of the predicted deviation power; acquiring deviation risks according to the deviation power; and establishing a maximum expected income target function by taking the difference between the market income and the deviation risk as a target. The method can effectively avoid the deviation risk of new energy participating in the market, obtain more profitable opportunities in the energy market and the auxiliary service market, and improve the power generation benefit of the new energy and the initiative of the new energy participating in the market.

Description

New energy and energy storage cooperative working method
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of new energy, in particular to a new energy and energy storage cooperative working method.
Background
The power generation benefit of new energy sources depends on cost and profit. The cost of the new energy is different from that of the traditional thermal power, the construction investment and maintenance cost of the new energy are reduced along with the increase of the new energy installation, the fuel consumption cost is almost zero, and the cost mainly lies in the deviation punishment and the electricity abandonment loss of the new energy participating in the market. In the electricity market, the deviation penalty is generally determined by the difference between the declared power and the actual power of the generating entity or customer, i.e. the deviation power. Because the new energy has uncertainty, the actual generating power of the new energy cannot be accurately sent according to a plan, so that a large amount of deviation power is accumulated in each settlement period, high deviation punishment is generated, and direct economic loss is brought. At present, the technical and economic means adopted by the new energy for reducing the deviation power and the deviation penalty mainly comprise electricity abandonment, energy storage construction, auxiliary service purchase in the electric power market and the like. The essence of electricity abandonment is that resources cannot be fully utilized, the commodity value of new energy power is wasted, and another economic loss of a new energy power plant is caused. Two economic losses generated by deviation punishment and electricity abandonment form the main cost of new energy participating in the market.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention provides a new energy and energy storage cooperative working method, which can effectively avoid the deviation risk of new energy participating in the market, obtain more profitable opportunities in the energy market and the auxiliary service market, and improve the power generation benefit of the new energy and the initiative of the new energy participating in the market.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a new energy and energy storage cooperative working method comprises the following steps:
obtaining predicted generating power and predicted deviation power according to the historical data of the new energy prediction and the actual generating power;
establishing a declaration strategy: taking a predicted value of the predicted power generation power as an upper limit of the time-reporting power; according to the strategy II, the predicted value of the generated power after the deviation power is superposed is used as the upper limit of the reported power;
the energy storage real-time power is combined, and the new energy deviation power is reduced;
selecting a reporting strategy according to the predicted deviation power vector and the probability of the predicted deviation power;
acquiring deviation risks according to the deviation power;
and establishing a maximum expected income target function by taking the difference between the market income and the deviation risk as a target.
Preferably, the expression of the deviation risk is:
Figure BDA0003220569530000021
wherein, Δ Pt enIs the offset power at time t, overestimated as positive; lambda [ alpha ]HThe price is punished unit and is recorded as overestimated electricity price; lambda [ alpha ]LThe unit cost of electricity abandonment is recorded as underestimated electricity price.
Preferably, the predicted offset power vector and the probability of the predicted offset power are calculated as follows:
predicting t-period offset power as
Figure BDA0003220569530000022
The probability of time is
Figure BDA0003220569530000023
Deviation power vector
Figure BDA0003220569530000024
And probability thereof
Figure BDA0003220569530000025
Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003220569530000026
the above expression indicates that the predicted offset power vector is formed by permutation and combination of the predicted offset power of each time interval, and the corresponding probability is the product of the probability of the offset power of each time interval in the permutation and combination.
Preferably, the constraint of reducing the new energy offset power is as follows:
Figure BDA0003220569530000027
wherein, Ps,tFor new energy offset power contribution, Pother,tIs the other initial power of the power source,
Figure BDA0003220569530000031
in order to charge the power, the charging power,
Figure BDA0003220569530000032
is the discharge power.
Preferably, the maximize expected revenue objective function is as follows:
Figure BDA0003220569530000033
Figure BDA0003220569530000034
is a predicted deviation vector
Figure BDA0003220569530000035
Both are parameters of the objective function F; function Ien、Ian、Cen、CanIs a decision variable of F, wherein Ien、IanRevenue for participation in the energy market and revenue for participation in the auxiliary service, cen、canRespectively, energy trading electricity price and auxiliary service electricity price。
Preferably, the strategy one is as follows: the predicted generating power of the new energy sources day ahead is only used as the declared power of the new energy sources day ahead for participating in the energy market and the auxiliary service:
Figure BDA0003220569530000036
Figure BDA0003220569530000037
the transaction power of the t period declared in the energy market and the auxiliary service in the day before is respectively; pp,tIs the predicted generated power at the time t in the day ahead.
Preferably, strategy two is specifically as follows:
the sum of the predicted generated power and the predicted deviation power of the new energy in the day ahead is used as the total declaration power in the day ahead for participating in the energy market and the auxiliary service.
Figure BDA0003220569530000038
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003220569530000039
the transaction power of the t period declared in the energy market and the auxiliary service in the day before is respectively; pp,tIs the predicted generated power at the time t in the day ahead,
Figure BDA00032205695300000310
the power is biased for the time t of the next day.
Preferably, the method further comprises the constraint that the auxiliary service declares that the power is consistent with the demand direction of the system:
Figure BDA00032205695300000311
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA00032205695300000312
trading power at a time t declared in an energy market at a day-ahead time;
Figure BDA00032205695300000313
is the system auxiliary service requirement during the period t.
According to the technical scheme, compared with the prior art, the new energy and stored energy cooperative working method is provided, and compared with a new energy power plant which does not contain stored energy for operation, the power plant with the stored energy and the new energy cooperatively operated has smaller deviation risk and higher market income, so that the new energy and stored energy cooperative operation is embodied, part of deviation risk participating in the market can be avoided, and the stored energy can transfer the deviation electric quantity of the new energy in a certain period to a period with market demand for profit. In summary, under this specific scenario, the total expected revenue of participating in the energy market and ancillary services per strategy one is higher than strategy two, and it can be found that the synergy of energy storage in new energy power plants is mainly:
1) t at new energy underestimation (overestimation)1Charging (discharging) in time periods and overestimating (underestimating) t of new energy2Discharging (charging) in a time period, so that the deviation power of the new energy is reduced, and a part of deviation risks of the new energy are avoided;
2) t at new energy underestimation (overestimation)1Charging (discharging) in time periods and auxiliary service for short t3And discharging (charging) in time intervals, so that the new energy auxiliary service income is improved.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a new energy power generation curve diagram of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a power-related graph of strategic operation of the invention;
FIG. 3 is a predicted offset power graph of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a graph of probability of predicted bias power versus total expected revenue for the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a graph of total expected revenue versus bias power and probability in accordance with the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a graph of the dominance strategy versus bias power and probability of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a schematic flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention discloses a new energy and energy storage cooperative working method, which comprises the following steps as shown in figure 7:
obtaining predicted generating power and predicted deviation power according to the historical data of the new energy prediction and the actual generating power;
establishing a declaration strategy: taking a predicted value of the predicted power generation power as an upper limit of the time-reporting power; according to the strategy II, the predicted value of the generated power after the deviation power is superposed is used as the upper limit of the reported power;
the energy storage real-time power is combined, and the new energy deviation power is reduced;
selecting a reporting strategy according to the predicted deviation power vector and the probability of the predicted deviation power;
acquiring deviation risks according to the deviation power;
and establishing a maximum expected income target function by taking the difference between the market income and the deviation risk as a target.
In this embodiment, the following are specific:
1 deviation risk and deviation power of new energy participating in market
1.1 deviation Risk of New energy participation in the market
1.1.1 deviation Risk of energy market
New energy participating in energy market trading requires the formulation of power generation plans. When the planned generating power of the new energy is lower than the actual generating power (called as underestimation below), the new energy is facing to abandon electricity, and the economic loss of the new energy is directly caused; in the period when the planned generated power of the new energy is higher than the actual generated power (hereinafter referred to as "overestimation"), the new energy will be punished by the market. Because the uncertainty of the new energy resource causes deviation between the actual power generation and the planned power generation within the new energy day (as shown by the shaded part in fig. 1), so that deviation between the actual power and the winning power, namely deviation power, is caused, the economy of the electricity abandoning loss of the new energy and the punished cost are regarded as the deviation risk of the new energy participating in the energy market, and the expression is used for expressing the deviation risk of the new energy in the energy market
Figure BDA0003220569530000061
Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003220569530000062
where Δ Pten is the offset power at time t, and overestimated as positive; lambda [ alpha ]HThe price is punished unit and is recorded as overestimated electricity price; lambda [ alpha ]LThe unit cost of electricity abandonment is recorded as underestimated electricity price.
1.1.2 deviation Risk of ancillary services
The new energy can obtain high return when participating in the auxiliary service, but the uncertainty of new energy power generation makes it difficult to become a good-quality auxiliary service resource like a traditional unit, which is contradictory to the development trend of high occupancy rate of new energy in the power system. Therefore, by setting the punishment electricity price of the auxiliary market, the new energy power plant shares the adverse effect of uncertainty of the called auxiliary service on the power grid, part of punishment cost is regarded as the deviation risk of the new energy power plant participating in the auxiliary service market, and the penalty cost is used
Figure BDA0003220569530000063
Expressed as:
Figure BDA0003220569530000064
wherein, Δ Pt anIs the bias power of the new energy responding to the auxiliary service. In response to policy calls, encouraging and directing active participation of new energy in ancillary services, a non-linear ancillary market deviation penalty tariff lambda may be setan。
1.2 energy storage to reduce new energy bias power
1.2.1 New energy bias Power with stored energy Regulation
The new energy power plant that contains the energy storage, the absolute value of new energy deviation power is reduced in the nimble charge-discharge of accessible energy storage:
ΔPt b.err＝ΔPt err-Ps,t (3)
wherein, Δ Pt err、ΔPt b.errRespectively adding the deviation power of the energy market or the auxiliary service before and after the superposition of the stored energy output; ps,tThe energy storage is the output for reducing the deviation power of new energy, and the overcharge and the overdischarge are prevented by restricting the energy storage.
1.2.2 maximum charge-discharge power of energy storage under constant power
1) Existing energy storage model
The existing literature mainly describes the success rate and capacity constraints on the operation constraints of energy storage, as shown in formula (4) and formula (5):
Figure BDA0003220569530000071
Et+1(Pbess,t)＝Et-ηd/cPbess,tΔt (5)
wherein D istIs the set of power that the stored energy can deliver; pbess,tIs the total power of stored energy; pmaxIs the stored energy rated power; alpha and beta are charge capacity upper and lower limit coefficients; etIs the residual electric quantity of the initial energy storage in the period t; emaxIs the energy storage volumeFixing the volume; etad/cThe charge-discharge efficiency of the energy storage battery is greater than 1 during discharge and less than 1 during charge; Δ t is the duration of charge and discharge.
2) Maximum charge-discharge power function of stored energy
When the stored energy is continuously charged and discharged at constant power within a period of time, the value limit of the constant power at any time at the beginning cannot be described visually by the stored energy model formulas (4) and (5), for example, the value limit of Ps and t in the formula (3), so that the maximum power is easy to fall into a local optimal solution, and therefore, the maximum power needs to be described.
At the beginning of the t period, the electric quantity is EtStored energy maximum charging power
Figure BDA0003220569530000076
And maximum discharge power
Figure BDA0003220569530000077
The functional expression of (a) is:
Figure BDA0003220569530000072
Figure BDA0003220569530000073
the expressions (6) and (7) indicate that the maximum possible constant power of the stored energy is within the time period of Δ t after the time
Figure BDA0003220569530000074
Is charged with electricity or
Figure BDA0003220569530000075
And discharging without causing the stored energy capacity to exceed the capacity limit. The maximum charge and discharge power function can intuitively describe the constraint of the initial energy storage in any time period on the constant output force in the time period.
3) Constraint for reducing new energy deviation power by energy storage
If the stored energy has other output at the beginning of the t time period, the stored energy can be reduced in the stateOutput P of new energy deviation powers,tThe constraints are:
Figure BDA0003220569530000081
wherein, Pother,tAt other initial powers, the discharge is positive. It is worth pointing out that equation (8) applies not only to the subject of the present study, but also to the constraint of the constant power required to increase or decrease the stored energy over a period of Δ t under any operating conditions.
Strategy for new energy and stored energy to cooperatively participate in market
2.1 two day-ahead declaration strategies and operation flows
2.1.1 prediction of bias Power and probability
The historical generating deviation power can be known from the historical prediction and the actual generating data of the new energy, and then the discrete probability distribution of the deviation power at the time t period of the next day is predicted, namely the deviation power at the time t period of the next day is
Figure BDA0003220569530000082
The probability of time is
Figure BDA0003220569530000083
Assuming that the deviation powers of the new energy power plant in 24 periods are independent of each other, the new energy power plant predicts the deviation power vector of the new energy power plant in 24 periods of the next day
Figure BDA0003220569530000084
And probability thereof
Figure BDA0003220569530000085
Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003220569530000086
expression (9) indicates that the next-day predicted offset power vector is formed by permutation and combination of the predicted offset power of each time interval, and the corresponding probability is the product of the probability of the offset power of each time interval in the permutation and combination.
2.1.2 day-ahead declaration strategy considering predicted bias power
Strategy one: the sum of the predicted generated power and the predicted deviation power of the new energy in the day ahead is used as the total declaration power in the day ahead for participating in the energy market and the auxiliary service.
Figure BDA0003220569530000087
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003220569530000088
the transaction power of the t period declared in the energy market and the auxiliary service in the day before is respectively; pp,tIs the predicted generated power at the time t in the day ahead. The strategy brings the predicted deviation power into the consideration range of the future declared power, has a certain probability to avoid the deviation risk in the prediction, and obtains a market income greater than that in the prediction, thereby improving the total expected income, but also has a certain probability to bear the greater deviation risk brought by uncertainty.
2.1.3 day-ahead declaration strategy without considering predicted bias power
And (2) strategy two: and only taking the predicted generating power of the new energy day ahead as the reported power of the new energy day ahead participating in the energy market and the auxiliary service.
Figure BDA0003220569530000091
The strategy does not bring the predicted deviation power into the future declared power range, is more conservative than the strategy, does not need to bear the risk of deviation beyond prediction, and cannot obtain the possibility of larger market benefits.
2.1.4 policy operation flow
The operation flow of the new energy and the stored energy cooperatively participating in the market strategy is shown in fig. 2, and mainly comprises three processes of daily declaration, simulated day operation and simulated settlement. In the process of day-ahead declaration, according to the predicted next-day deviation power vector
Figure BDA0003220569530000092
And probability thereof
Figure BDA0003220569530000093
Selecting a reporting strategy and determining reporting of next-day trading power in energy markets and ancillary services
Figure BDA0003220569530000094
In the simulation day operation process, according to the actual generated power P of the new energyreAdjusting the stored energy output P in real timebessAnd the power of the new energy source and the power P are distributed to the power P of market trading in which the new energy source participates1 en、P1 anPerforming the following steps; in the process of simulated settlement, calculating the benefited power of the new energy on the day according to the reported power before the day and the distributed power in the day
Figure BDA0003220569530000095
And deviation power Δ Pt en、ΔPt anRespectively calculating the corresponding daily income Ien、IanAnd risk of deviation Cen、Can。
2.2 market income and deviation risk settlement with energy storage collaborative operation
Power allocation and transaction settlement within 2.2.1 days
The energy storage real-time power is superposed on the actual generating power in the new energy day, and is the maximum value of the distributable power in the energy market and the auxiliary service in the new energy power plant day:
Figure BDA0003220569530000096
Figure BDA0003220569530000097
wherein, Pre,tIs the actual generated power of the new energy in the day at the time t; pbess,tIs the energy storage real-time power at the time period t;
Figure BDA0003220569530000098
the method comprises the following steps that (1) day trade power distributed to an energy market and auxiliary service by a new energy power plant at a time t is recorded as distributed power; equation (13) constrains the in-day allocated power of the auxiliary service to be consistent with the in-day declared power direction.
New energy power plants respectively
Figure BDA0003220569530000101
And (4) participating in daily settlement of two markets, wherein one part of power can obtain benefits, and the other part of power has deviation risks. The power available to earn settlement revenue is:
Figure BDA0003220569530000102
Figure BDA0003220569530000103
the powers at risk of deviation (deviation powers) are:
Figure BDA0003220569530000104
Figure BDA0003220569530000105
equation (14) indicates that the energy market only settles for positive power, and the power at which settlement revenue can be obtained does not exceed the power declared day-ahead; equation (15) indicates that the supplementary service can settle both positive and negative power, but the power at which the settlement revenue is obtained cannot exceed the power declared by the day. In formulae (16) and (17), Δ Pt en、ΔPt anThe power with deviation risks in the energy market and the auxiliary service in the t period is the deviation power of new energy and stored energy cooperatively participating in the market.
2.2.2 market benefits including energy storage Co-operation
Revenue I for participation in energy marketenAnd revenue I of participating in auxiliary servicesanComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003220569530000106
Figure BDA0003220569530000107
wherein c isen、canRespectively, an energy trading power rate and an auxiliary service power rate.
2.2.3 deviation Risk with energy storage Co-operation
According to formulae (1) to (3) and formulae (6) to (8), new energy sources and
Figure BDA0003220569530000108
reporting the risk of deviation between the energy market and the auxiliary service as follows:
Figure BDA0003220569530000109
Figure BDA0003220569530000111
wherein, Cen、CanDeviation risks of participating in the energy market, auxiliary services, respectively; delta Pt en、ΔPt anThe deviation power still exists after the energy storage adjustment is calculated according to the formula (16) and the formula (17), and the absolute value of the deviation power is smaller than the absolute value of the actual power generation deviation of the new energy, so that the risk of the power generation deviation of the new energy can be effectively avoided to a certain extent.
3 new energy and stored energy cooperative operation model
3.1 maximum expected revenue objective function with bias risk
Under the same day-ahead declaration strategy, even if the forecast deviation power and the probability are fixed, the market benefits and the deviation risks are different due to different combinations of transaction powers declared in the energy market and the auxiliary service in the day-ahead of the new energy power plant and different combinations of distributed powers in the day-ahead operation. Therefore, a maximum expected income objective function is established by taking the difference between the market income and the deviation risk as a target, and the future declared power combination and the day-to-day power distribution of the new energy power plant are optimized:
Figure BDA0003220569530000112
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003220569530000113
is a predicted deviation vector
Figure BDA0003220569530000114
Both are parameters of the objective function F; function Ien、Ian、Cen、CanThe independent variable of (A) comprises
Figure BDA0003220569530000115
Pbess,tThese are also decision variables for F.
3.2 constraint Condition
The equality constraints for solving the objective function comprise power balance equations (10) to (12), equations (16) and (17), and the inequality constraints comprise constraints that the auxiliary service declared power is consistent with the system demand direction, in addition to the energy storage maximum charge and discharge power constraint of equation (8) and the auxiliary service intra-day distribution power constraint of equation (13):
Figure BDA0003220569530000116
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003220569530000117
is the system auxiliary service requirement during the period t.
4 simulation analysis
4.1 parameter settings
In a Matlab development environment, based on a Yalmip platform, Cplex12.0 is called to solve. A certain wind power storage and generation system is selected as an analysis object, the installed capacity of wind power is 200MW, the rated power of stored energy is 20MW, the rated capacity is 40MWh, the initial electric quantity is 20MWh, other operation parameters are set as shown in a table 1, and electricity price parameters are set as shown in a table 2. 24 periods are set up a day, each period being 1 h.
Table 1 energy storage other parameters
Figure BDA0003220569530000121
TABLE 2 Electricity price parameters
Parameter(s) Electricity price (Yuan/MWh)
Energy market overestimation electricity price lambdaH 900
Underestimation electricity price lambda of energy marketL 920
Auxiliary service deviation electricity price lambdaan 500
Energy market trade electricity price cen 560
Auxiliary service transaction price of electricity can 900
4.2 comparison of market benefits with deviation Risk
4.2.1 Co-operation of stored energy and New energy to increase expected revenue
When the predicted deviation power vector of the wind power plant next day is
Figure BDA0003220569530000122
As shown in fig. 3, the probability is 0.8. Under the first and second strategies declared in the future, the two market gains and deviation risks of the energy storage and wind power plant cooperative operation are shown in table 3, and the market gains and deviation risks of the wind power plant without energy storage operation are shown in table 4.
Table 3 simulation results of the cooperative operation of stored energy and new energy
Figure BDA0003220569530000123
Table 4 new energy operation simulation results without energy storage
Figure BDA0003220569530000124
Common to both tables 3 and 4 is that both market benefits are higher for strategy one than strategy two and that both deviation risks are lower for strategy one than strategy two. This is because, under policy, the day-ahead declaration of both markets has taken into account the power offset that may occur a fraction of the next day, and the power offset is more likely to occur due to the power offset
Figure BDA0003220569530000131
Thus both increasing the upper limit of the benefit from the market and to a certain extent circumventing the risk of deviations with the strategy. The difference lies in, compares the new forms of energy power plant that does not contain the energy storage operation, and the power plant deviation risk of energy storage and new forms of energy collaborative operation is littleer, and market income is higher, and this has not only embodied new forms of energy and energy storage collaborative operation also can beAnd a part of deviation risks of participating in the market are avoided, and the fact that the stored energy can transfer the deviation electric quantity of the new energy in a certain time period to a time period with market demand for profit is also explained. In summary, under this specific scenario, the total expected revenue of participating in the energy market and ancillary services per strategy one is higher than strategy two, and it can be found that the synergy of energy storage in new energy power plants is mainly:
1) t at new energy underestimation (overestimation)1Charging (discharging) in time periods and overestimating (underestimating) t of new energy2Discharging (charging) in a time period, so that the deviation power of the new energy is reduced, and a part of deviation risks of the new energy are avoided;
2) t at new energy underestimation (overestimation)1Charging (discharging) in time periods and auxiliary service for short t3And discharging (charging) in time intervals, so that the new energy auxiliary service income is improved.
4.2.2 Effect of bias Power probability on expected revenue
Different from the simulation result of the specific scene of section 4.2.1, the section is in the deviation power vector
Figure BDA0003220569530000132
In the fixed case, the probabilities are compared
Figure BDA0003220569530000133
The effect of the variation on the total expected revenue is shown in FIG. 4. In FIG. 4
Figure BDA0003220569530000134
The total expected yield of the strategy one is positively correlated, the total expected yield of the strategy two is negatively correlated, and the yield balance point probability of the two strategies is between 0.4 and 0.5. This is because as the probability increases, the greater the expectation that strategy one will obtain additional market revenue due to the consideration of bias power, and the greater the expectation that strategy two will risk deviations due to the non-consideration of bias power, so the total expected revenue for strategy one is progressively higher than strategy two; conversely, as the probability decreases, the risk of bias due to the consideration of bias power is expected to increase for strategy one, and bias wind due to the non-consideration of bias power for strategy twoThe expectation of risk decreases so the total expected revenue for strategy one is progressively lower than strategy two.
4.2.3 Effect of bias Power on expected yield
1) Market revenue and deviation risk results
In the case where the probabilities all take 0.49, the predicted deviation powers are respectively calculated as
Figure BDA0003220569530000141
Market benefits and deviation risks in three scenarios are shown in tables 5-7.
Comparing the calculation results of tables 5 to 7, it can be seen that as the predicted deviation power increases, whether it is strategy one or strategy two, the market profit in the energy market and the auxiliary service decreases, the deviation risk increases, and the total expected profit decreases. However, the overall expected revenue reduction for strategy is much greater than for strategy two, creating the following phenomena: when the predicted deviation power is
Figure BDA0003220569530000142
The total expected revenue of strategy one is higher than that of strategy two; when the predicted deviation power is
Figure BDA0003220569530000143
The total expected income of the strategy one and the strategy two is relatively close; when the predicted deviation power is
Figure BDA0003220569530000144
When so, the total expected revenue for strategy two is instead higher than for strategy one. This is because, under the fixed probability, when the deviation power is small, the first strategy can reasonably share the deviation power by changing the declared power of the market, thereby avoiding the deviation risk and obtaining additional market benefits, so the total expected benefits are higher; however, as the deviation power is gradually increased, due to limited market demand, the capability of avoiding the deviation risk by changing the declared power is limited, simultaneously, the overestimation penalty and the electricity abandoning cost are very high, and the marginal cost exceeds the marginal benefit due to the fact that the deviation power is continuously shared and declared in the two markets, so that the total expected benefit of the first strategy is gradually increasedThe advantage of the relatively conservative strategy two appears at this time, which is lower than the strategy two.
TABLE 5 scenario one market revenue and deviation Risk
Figure BDA0003220569530000145
TABLE 6 market benefits and deviation Risk for scenario two
Figure BDA0003220569530000146
TABLE 7 market revenue and deviation Risk for scenario three
Figure BDA0003220569530000147
Figure BDA0003220569530000151
2) Features for circumventing bias risk using policy
Comparing table 5 with table 3, it can be seen that when the predicted deviation powers are the same, the probabilities are increased, two market benefits of the strategy one are respectively increased by 0.21 ten thousand yuan and 1.03 ten thousand yuan, the deviation risks are respectively reduced by 0.55 ten thousand yuan and 1.05 ten thousand yuan, the total expected benefit is increased by 2.84 ten thousand yuan, and it is verified that the 4.2.2 section conclusion is correct. In addition, the above data show that when a deviation risk is avoided by using a strategy, that is, a part of power is to be allocated and reported, the optimization model is more biased to report the auxiliary service to obtain higher auxiliary market benefits, but will also face higher deviation risk.
4.2.4 Combined Effect of bias Power and probability on expected revenue
The actual power generation and the predicted deviation power of the new energy in the new energy day are not considered in extreme special conditions
Figure BDA00032205695300001519
And probability
Figure BDA0003220569530000152
There is a close relationship: when in use
Figure BDA0003220569530000153
When the size of the particles is larger than the required size,
Figure BDA0003220569530000154
the larger the amplitude, the larger the new energy uncertainty,
Figure BDA0003220569530000155
the smaller the amplitude is, the more accurate the new energy power generation is; when in use
Figure BDA0003220569530000156
When the ratio of the water to the oil is small,
Figure BDA0003220569530000157
the larger the amplitude, the better the new energy uncertainty may be than predicted,
Figure BDA0003220569530000158
the smaller the amplitude, the worse the new energy uncertainty may be. In order to explore the influence of uncertainty of new energy on the total expected income of the strategy, an objective function F and a parameter quantity in an equation (22)
Figure BDA0003220569530000159
Figure BDA00032205695300001510
The partial relation curve of (2) is shown in fig. 5, and the top view thereof is shown in fig. 6.
Within a certain range of the content of the active ingredient,
Figure BDA00032205695300001511
the curve surface of the target function of the strategy one is approximately in positive correlation, and the curve surface of the target function of the strategy two is approximately in negative correlation, and the curve surface of the target function of the strategy two is consistent with the analysis of section 4.2.2. As can be seen from fig. 5, there is an intersection of the two desired revenue curves, from which it can be found that: strategy one and strategy twoThere is no absolute good-bad relationship.
From FIG. 6, the offset power is predicted at any one time
Figure BDA00032205695300001512
Next, as the probability increases, the total expected revenue advantage is converted from policy two to policy one, and as
Figure BDA00032205695300001513
The probability corresponding to the transition point is gradually increased. From another perspective, when
Figure BDA00032205695300001514
The total expected yield of the strategy two is higher; when in use
Figure BDA00032205695300001515
The total expected revenue of strategy one is higher; when in use
Figure BDA00032205695300001516
When there is power
Figure BDA00032205695300001517
If it is
Figure BDA00032205695300001518
The total expected yield of the strategy is higher, otherwise the total expected yield of the strategy is higher, which is consistent with the result of section 4.2.3, and the strategy transition point with the better total expected yield corresponds to the probability increase
Figure BDA0003220569530000161
The larger.
The previous description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims (9)

1. A new energy and energy storage cooperative working method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
obtaining predicted generating power and predicted deviation power according to the historical data of the new energy prediction and the actual generating power;
establishing a declaration strategy: taking a predicted value of the predicted power generation power as an upper limit of the time-reporting power; according to the strategy II, the predicted value of the generated power after the deviation power is superposed is used as the upper limit of the reported power;
the energy storage real-time power is combined, and the new energy deviation power is reduced;
selecting a reporting strategy according to the predicted deviation power vector and the probability of the predicted deviation power;
and acquiring deviation risks according to the deviation power.
2. The method according to claim 1, further comprising establishing a maximum expected profit objective function with the objective of maximizing the difference between market profit and deviation risk.
3. The new energy and energy storage cooperative working method according to claim 1, wherein the expression of the deviation risk is as follows:
Figure FDA0003220569520000011
wherein, Δ Pt enIs the offset power at time t, overestimated as positive; lambda [ alpha ]HThe price is punished unit and is recorded as overestimated electricity price; lambda [ alpha ]LThe unit cost of electricity abandonment is recorded as underestimated electricity price.
4. The new energy and energy storage cooperative working method according to claim 1, wherein the predicted deviation power vector and the probability of the predicted deviation power are calculated as follows:
predicting t-period offset power as
Figure FDA0003220569520000012
The probability of time is
Figure FDA0003220569520000013
Deviation power vector
Figure FDA0003220569520000014
And probability thereof
Figure FDA0003220569520000015
Comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003220569520000016
the above expression indicates that the predicted offset power vector is formed by permutation and combination of the predicted offset power of each time interval, and the corresponding probability is the product of the probability of the offset power of each time interval in the permutation and combination.
5. The new energy and energy storage cooperative working method according to claim 1, wherein the constraint of reducing the new energy deviation power is as follows:
Figure FDA0003220569520000021
wherein, Ps,tFor new energy offset power contribution, Pother,tIs the other initial power of the power source,
Figure FDA0003220569520000022
in order to charge the power, the charging power,
Figure FDA0003220569520000023
is the discharge power.
6. The new energy and energy storage cooperative working method according to claim 2, wherein the objective function of maximizing expected profit is as follows:
Figure FDA0003220569520000024
Figure FDA0003220569520000025
is a predicted deviation vector
Figure FDA0003220569520000026
Both are parameters of the objective function F; function Ien、Ian、Cen、CanIs a decision variable of F, wherein Ien、IanRevenue for participation in the energy market and revenue for participation in the auxiliary service, cen、canRespectively, an energy trading power rate and an auxiliary service power rate.
7. The new energy and energy storage cooperative working method according to claim 1, wherein a strategy one is as follows: the predicted generating power of the new energy sources day ahead is only used as the declared power of the new energy sources day ahead for participating in the energy market and the auxiliary service:
Figure FDA0003220569520000027
Figure FDA0003220569520000028
the transaction power of the t period declared in the energy market and the auxiliary service in the day before is respectively; pp,tIs the predicted generated power at the time t in the day ahead.
8. The new energy and energy storage cooperative working method according to claim 1, wherein the strategy two is as follows:
the sum of the predicted generated power and the predicted deviation power of the new energy in the day ahead is used as the total declaration power in the day ahead participating in the energy market and the auxiliary service:
Figure FDA0003220569520000029
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA00032205695200000210
the transaction power of the t period declared in the energy market and the auxiliary service in the day before is respectively; pp,tIs the predicted generated power at the time t in the day ahead,
Figure FDA00032205695200000211
the power is biased for the time t of the next day.
9. The new energy and energy storage cooperative work method according to claim 1, further comprising the step of reporting a constraint that the power is consistent with the system demand direction by the auxiliary service:
Figure FDA0003220569520000031
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0003220569520000032
trading power at a time t declared in an energy market at a day-ahead time;
Figure FDA0003220569520000033
is the system auxiliary service requirement during the period t.
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CN115983518A (en) * 2022-12-22 2023-04-18 浙江电力交易中心有限公司 Reporting method and related components of wind-solar-energy storage integrated system
CN115983518B (en) * 2022-12-22 2024-06-11 浙江电力交易中心有限公司 Reporting method of wind-solar-energy-storage integrated system and related components

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