CN113611118B - Ellipse-like accident time-space influence range grading determination method - Google Patents

Ellipse-like accident time-space influence range grading determination method Download PDF

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CN113611118B
CN113611118B CN202110911536.9A CN202110911536A CN113611118B CN 113611118 B CN113611118 B CN 113611118B CN 202110911536 A CN202110911536 A CN 202110911536A CN 113611118 B CN113611118 B CN 113611118B
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CN113611118A (en
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王建军
王赛
卢霄娟
李强
马驰骋
李冬怡
宋明洋
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Changan University
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Abstract

The invention discloses a classification determination method for a space-time influence range of an ellipse-like accident, which comprises a duration model and a space influence range model, wherein the duration model is obtained based on a VanAlrde model, the space influence range is obtained through a Gaussian smoke plume model, and the influence range and the influence degree of the traffic accident on an incident road and an intersecting road are accurately measured and calculated through a classification standard. By adopting the method, the duration time of each stage in the traffic accident can be accurately analyzed, and the influence of the traffic accident on surrounding roads is visually displayed.

Description

Ellipse-like accident time-space influence range grading determination method
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of traffic safety, in particular to a method for determining the space impact range in an ellipse-like accident in a grading manner.
Background
The highway is a main artery for traffic transportation in China, bears a large amount of passenger transport and freight transport requirements, and plays an important role in economic development in China. Particularly, the road alignment of the mountain road has more limit design indexes due to complex terrain and special geological conditions; due to the limited capital or construction conditions, the mountainous road is lack of traffic safety facilities and traffic management facilities, and further traffic accidents occur frequently. For mountain roads, the degree of influence of a traffic accident is not only related to the current state of the accident, but also related to factors such as the road network structure and traffic flow, and particularly, the influence is undoubtedly huge because the traffic jam propagation causes the long duration of the accident and the wide space spreading range. Therefore, the research on the time-space influence propagation analysis of the traffic accident is significant.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to deeply analyze the propagation rule of the time-space influence of the traffic accident to carry out quantitative grading on the accident, namely, modeling analysis is respectively carried out from the two aspects of accident duration and space diffusion by combining the characteristics of the road and the accident, so as to form a method for determining the grading of the time-space influence range of the similar elliptic accident, provide a basic theory for establishing a practical model to predict the risk grade of the road traffic accident, and further guide the traffic risk identification of the mountain road and the customization of the safety prevention and control working policy.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
a class ellipse accident time-space influence range grading determination method comprises the following steps:
s1 traffic accident influence duration model
S11: establishing a traffic wave formula of the traffic accident based on the Van aerode model, and calculating the wave speed of each state stage of the traffic accident according to the traffic wave formula;
traffic waves:
Figure BDA0003203831090000021
in the formula, v1、v2Average rates of traffic flow upstream and downstream of the wave front, c1、c2、c3Is an intermediate variable, vfRepresenting the velocity of the free flow, vmRepresents the critical velocity, kjDenotes the blocking density, qcRepresenting capacity of traffic;
s12: based on wave velocity and time node information, obtaining the influence duration of traffic accidents by using a geometric algebra method;
s2 traffic accident space influence range model
S21: establishing a spatial influence range formula of the traffic accident based on the Gaussian plume model;
spatial influence range formula:
Figure BDA0003203831090000022
in the formula, xi is the proportion xi epsilon (0, 1) of the diffused traffic of the accident source point, xi is related to the accident type, Q is the influence parameter of the accident source point on the incident road/the intersected road, and a is a proportion constant;
s22: classifying and discussing an influence parameter Q of an accident source point on an incident road and an intersecting road, and then determining a spatial influence range model of the accident source point;
the incident road:
Figure BDA0003203831090000023
and (3) intersection roads:
Figure BDA0003203831090000024
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003203831090000025
Cdthe ultimate influence of the accident source point on the incident road is a value close to 0 and is determined by trial calculation of actual accident data; beta is aliCalibrating according to grading requirements; j is the number of the crossed road; x is the number ofjThe horizontal distance from the intersection road j to the accident source point; xljThe maximum influence distance of the accident source point on the intersection road j is obtained; qjThe influence parameters of the accident source point on the intersection road j are shown;
s3, determining the space influence range of the traffic accident in a grading way
Dividing the type of the incident road according to whether the incident road has a central isolation zone; and then respectively determining space influence range diagrams of different types of accident roads based on the space influence range models, and visually representing the size and the range of the traffic accident influence.
Preferably, in the step S22, the influence parameter of the incident road is calibrated by a gravitational field theory, and the influence parameter of the intersecting road is calibrated by a cascade failure influence evaluation index.
The invention has the advantages that:
1. the method for calculating the time influence range of the mountain road accident is provided, the accident duration is divided into three stages, namely an occurrence and response stage, a clearing stage and a traffic recovery stage, and factors influencing the time length of each stage can be analyzed more accurately;
2. on the basis of the Gaussian smoke plume model, a cascade failure rule and a road network influence index of each road section of a road network are analyzed, and a traffic accident time-space influence ellipse-like influence range calculation model is provided;
3. the ellipse-like traffic accident time-space influence classification model considers the difference of the propagation speeds of traffic accidents on roads in different directions and reflects the non-uniformity of the spatial propagation of the traffic accidents.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a sectional view of a traffic accident continuation phase according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram I illustrating an upstream propagation process of a traffic accident according to the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram II of the traffic accident upstream propagation process in the present invention;
FIG. 5 is an exemplary diagram of a road network structure of an accident site according to the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating the accident influence range of the present invention not related to the opposite lane;
FIG. 7 is a graph of the impact of an accident in relation to an oncoming lane in accordance with the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an analysis of traffic accident impact propagation according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating a road network structure of a traffic accident site according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an analysis of the impact area of an accident in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical scheme of the invention is further explained by combining the drawings and the embodiment.
The method for determining the classification of the time-space influence range of the ellipse-like accident as shown in FIG. 1 comprises the following steps:
s1 determination of duration of traffic accident influence
S11: traffic wave equation under Van aerode model
The invention carries out accident duration research on the basis of a Van aerode model, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003203831090000041
in the formula: c. C1、c2、c3Is an intermediate variable; k represents density pcu/(km. lane); v. offRepresenting the free stream velocity km/h; v represents the space average velocity km/h; v. ofmRepresenting a critical speed km/h; k is a radical ofjRepresenting a blocking density of pcu/(km. lane); q. q.scThe traffic capacity is represented by pcu/(km · lane).
Substituting q ═ kv into, we can get:
Figure BDA0003203831090000051
substituting the formula (2) into the traffic wave formula
Figure BDA0003203831090000052
In the method, the traffic wave equation under the Van aerode model is obtained as follows:
Figure BDA0003203831090000053
in the formula, v1、v2The average speed of the traffic flow at the upstream and downstream of the wave front respectively, and the rest symbols have the same meanings as before.
S12: traffic accident duration calculation
The time of accident impact is primarily characterized by the duration of the accident. The duration of a traffic accident includes the entire process from the occurrence of the accident to the end of the impact of the accident. After an accident occurs, the accident needs to be handled, wounded personnel need to be rescued, and the lane at part of the accident road section can be blocked, so that the traffic capacity is reduced, and the traffic jam is easy to occur and becomes a bottleneck.
As shown in fig. 2, the accident impact persistence process generally goes through the following stages: accident discovery and response, accident clearing, and traffic restoration.
The propagation process of the traffic wave in the upstream after the accident is mainly divided into the following two cases, which are detailed in table 1.
(1) Case 1, w12First and w01Meet to form a new aggregate wave w02；
(2) Case 2, w23First and w12Meet to form a new aggregate wave w13。
Wherein point A (t) is based on real-time data at the time of the accidenta,0)，B(tb,0)， C(tc0) coordinate and wave velocity w01,w02,w03,w12,w23(all can be calculated by the formula (3), e.g. w01Is calculated as vwV in the formula1、v2Mean traffic flow rates of the wave front upstream A and downstream D in case 1, respectively) can be obtained, and coordinate values of nodes D, E and F can be obtained according to a geometric algebra method, so that accident influence time Tmax (w in a formula in table 1) can be deducedijRepresenting absolute values).
TABLE 1 analysis of impact propagation process of traffic accidents upstream
Figure BDA0003203831090000061
Note: t is1＝(tb-ta) Denotes the first phase time, T2＝(tc-tb) Denotes the second stage time, T3＝(tf-tc) Denotes the third stage time, tdAnd teIs an inflection point.
The following is the basic principle of traffic wave propagation and encounter, taking case 1 as an example:
when t is equal to taWhen an accident occurs, a row of concentration waves w01And generating the road section, wherein the propagation direction of the road section is opposite to the direction of the vehicle coming from the accident road section.
When t is equal to tbAt the beginning of the treatment of the scene accident, the traffic organization measures may be followed by the closing of the traffic lane, causing a new concentration wave w12At t, atdTime andw01meet each other to generate a collective wave w02。
When t is equal to tcWhen the accident treatment is finished, the traffic capacity of the road section is gradually recovered, and vehicles in the queue of the accident point are driven in sequence, thereby generating a train of evanescent waves w23Its propagation direction is opposite to the direction of the incoming vehicle on the accident road section at teTime of day, evanescent wave w23And an aggregate wave w02Meet to generate a recovery wave w03The propagation direction of the road is the same as the direction of the vehicle coming from the accident road section.
At tfTime of day, recovery wave w03And when the accident point is reached, the traffic of the affected road section is recovered to be normally driven.
S2: construction of traffic accident space influence range model
S21: construction of Gaussian smoke plume model of accident space influence
The accident-influenced space diffusion is mainly caused by vehicle congestion and queuing, and is influenced by the duration of the accident, the type and the severity of the accident, the accident occurrence place and the road occupation condition, whether a central separation zone exists on the road, the upstream traffic volume of the accident site, the vehicle speed and the vehicle type ratio and the like besides the severity of the accident. The degree of influence of the traffic accident on the road network system of the mountain road is analogized to a Gaussian smoke plume model concentration function (variable with the dimension of 1), and the calculation is shown as a formula (4).
Figure RE-GDA0003231627400000071
In the formula: c (x, y, z, H) represents the influence of the point (x, y, z) accident spread source; h represents the diffusion source height (0 is taken); q is the diffusion source released rate; u is the average travel speed of the traffic flow at the source of the accident; sigmay,σzDistribution parameters of traffic volumes of accident points in the y direction and the z direction are respectively; x, y represent the horizontal and vertical distances from the accident point (the x direction is defined as the diffusion direction of the traffic volume, i.e. the upstream direction of the traffic incident road, the y direction is the vertical direction of the x direction); z is the height of the spatial point.
For ease of discussion, the hypothetical model of equation (4) is simplified according to the following conditions:
traffic accident effects have the same diffusion parameter in the y-and z-directions, i.e. r2＝y2；
σ is a function of x, which is simplified to
Figure BDA0003203831090000081
k is the diffusion coefficient;
the road traffic network is a plane, so the size of z is not considered, namely z is 0, r2＝y2. Equation (4) is simplified here as:
Figure BDA0003203831090000082
in equation (5), since the diffusion coefficient is only related to x, k may be made equal to ax, and a may be a constant. At this time:
Figure BDA0003203831090000086
let Q be the influence of the accident point on the road (incident road and intersection road), xi be the proportion of the diffused traffic of the accident point, and the range is xi ∈ (0, 1), and the size is related to the accident type. Assuming that the influence of the accident source point on the road section and the intersection is distributed to the average accident influence C before the traffic of the accident section at the boundary point in the x direction after the traffic of the accident point is spread*And (3) characterization:
Figure BDA0003203831090000083
in equation (7), ξ Q is the accident influence being diffused, R0Is the equivalent circle radius of the accident road area, and S is the accident road area, then:
Figure BDA0003203831090000084
substituting formula (8) for formula (6) to obtain:
Figure BDA0003203831090000085
s22: ellipse-like accident space influence model construction
S221: surrounding road network influence parameter Q calibration
After an accident occurs on a certain road section, the influence on the current incident road is the largest until the influence is gradually reduced after the traffic volume on the road section is distributed to the crossed road sections. For the intersection road, the influence of the accident on the intersection road mainly comes from the extra load transferred from the incident road, and the more the load capacity exceeding the intersection road is, the greater the influence of the accident on the road is, so that the influence parameter Q of the accident point on the incident road and the intersection road needs to be discussed in a classified manner. A simplified schematic of the road network around the point of occurrence of the accident is shown in figure 5.
S222: construction of incident road space influence range model
1) Incident road influence parameter Q calibration
In order to improve the precision, the diffusion radius r should not be too large, and the value range is (A)
Figure BDA0003203831090000091
Where i is 1,2, …, 6). r obeys a normal distribution with a confidence interval of 0.95
Figure BDA0003203831090000092
Can obtain
Figure BDA0003203831090000093
When, exp (-r)2/4ax2)＝e-40.0183, with r being 0 to
Figure BDA0003203831090000094
Degree of influence of distribution of traffic volume of section accident point to surrounding road network
Figure BDA0003203831090000095
(average of C) to evaluate the influence of the distance x from the accident origin, as shown in equation (10).
Figure BDA0003203831090000096
Is provided with CdThe ultimate influence on the accident road generated by the accident source point
Figure BDA0003203831090000097
And obtaining the influence of the accident source point on the farthest distance of the incident road.
The influence of the accident origin on the surrounding road sections is simulated by utilizing the gravitational field theory, and the influence parameter Q of the accident origin on the incident road is shown as the formula (11).
Figure BDA0003203831090000098
In formula (11), k is aXdDenotes diffusion coefficient, P denotes potential energy of accident source, XdThe maximum influence distance is indicated.
2) Incident road influence grading calculation model
The accident source point potential energy is a comprehensive index related to accident road occupation ratio, accident type, accident vehicle type and the like, and in order to simplify the formula, assuming that the formula is determined by the accident type, the formula (11) is substituted into the formula (10) to obtain:
Figure BDA0003203831090000101
when the influence degree of the accident source point on the incident road is different levels li, the corresponding maximum influence distance is as follows:
Figure BDA0003203831090000102
wherein, the proportion xi epsilon (0, 1) of the diffused traffic of the accident point is determined by the accident property.
The scaling of the proportionality constant a is related to the accident lane proportion, the accident type and the like, and a belongs to (0.15, 1).
Figure BDA0003203831090000103
Due to CdRepresenting the degree of influence of the traffic accident on the farthest distance of the incident road, is a value close to 0. Although the maximum influence range corresponding to each accident is different, C can be reasonably assumeddAre approximately the same, so C in the formuladCan be determined by trial calculation of actual accident data. By the above-mentioned model parameter betaliRegulating to get betal1＝0.05，βl2＝0.3，βl3The maximum range of different impact of an accident on the incident road can be determined as 1.
When C is taken as Cl1When (corresponds to beta)l10.05), take Cl2When (corresponds to beta)l20.3), take Cl3When (corresponds to beta)l31), respectively corresponding Xl1,Xl2,Xl3The maximum influence distance when the influence degree of the accident source point spread on the incident road is the first level, the second level and the third level.
S223: construction of intersection road space influence range model
1) Intersection road influence parameter Q calibration
Roads are often subjected to emergency situations such as natural disasters, traffic accidents and the like, the emergency situations can reduce the traffic capacity of a traffic accident point, and after traffic flow is redistributed, vehicles on the connected roads can be blocked, so that cascade failure of the road network is called. Because the influence of the node fault on the failure degree of the road traffic network is considered, the influence parameter Q of the fault point on the road traffic network is calibrated by using the cascade failure influence evaluation index. Further depicting the load transfer evolution process of cascade failure and constructing the function of failure load propagation
Figure BDA0003203831090000111
Reflecting the failure degree of the failure road section, namely:
Figure BDA0003203831090000112
in the formula:
Figure BDA0003203831090000113
for a section eiThe real-time load of the mobile terminal,
Figure BDA0003203831090000114
for a section eiThe self load capacity, t is the moment when the load is distributed to the adjacent road section, and theta is an adjusting parameter; when the load is distributed to the adjacent road sections, the cascade failure influence evaluation index of the road section is used as an influence parameter Q of an accident diffusion source on the road section, namely Q is H; gamma, delta, tau represent adjustable parameters;
Figure BDA0003203831090000115
represents an edge eiThe betweenness of (A);
Figure BDA0003203831090000116
representing road capacity; gst,iFor the shortest path between edge s and t passing through edge eiThe number of (c); n isstThe number of all shortest paths between s and t;
Figure BDA0003203831090000117
is ejAnd (d) the load corresponding to the road section at the moment (t-1).
2) Hierarchical calculation model for influence of crossed roads
And further obtaining a smoke and rain propagation model of the accident intersection road influence range based on the cascade failure as follows:
Figure BDA0003203831090000121
in the formula: j is the number of the crossed road; x is a radical of a fluorine atomjFor j distance on crossing roadsThe horizontal distance of the source point; xljThe maximum influence distance of the accident source point on the intersection road j is obtained; qjThe influence of the source on the intersection direction road j is diffused for the event.
When C is taken as Cl1、Cl2、Cl3Each corresponding Xl1、Xl2、Xl3The maximum influence distance when the influence degree of the accident source point spread on the intersection road j is the first level, the second level and the third level. Wherein C isliThe calculation of (2) is the same as the calculation method of the incident road.
S3: hierarchical determination of space-time impact range of ellipse-like accident
After a traffic accident occurs on a road, traffic jam firstly propagates along the current road, and traffic waves propagate to other multiple directions after arriving at an intersection, so that the space influence range of the traffic accident is mainly the current road and secondly the intersection road. The distribution of the traffic influence range in two directions has great difference, and the influence range of the current road direction is far larger than that of the intersection road because the accident influence is mainly transmitted along the current road. From the shape of the influence range, the influence range of the accident is in an elliptical form with the accident occurrence position as the origin.
1) The accident influence does not relate to the ellipse-like space-time influence range of the intersecting roads
If an accident occurs, only the vehicle lane is occupied, and the normal running of the vehicle in the opposite lane is not affected. The maximum influence distances corresponding to the first-level, second-level and third-level diffusion influence degrees of the accident source points on the incident road and each intersection road j in the accident upstream range are calculated according to a formula, the corresponding distance points with the same influence degrees are sequentially and smoothly connected, the accident influence area is divided into a first-level influence area, a second-level influence area and a third-level influence area, an accident influence range diagram is drawn and is shown in fig. 6, and the size and the range of the accident influence are visually represented.
2) Accident influence relates to the ellipse-like space-time influence range of the intersecting roads
If an accident occurs, because a common trunk road generally has no central separation zone, the opposite lane may be affected when the accident occurs to the lane, so that the whole road section fails, the maximum influence distances corresponding to the first-level, second-level and third-level diffusion influence degrees of the accident source point in the accident upstream and downstream ranges on the incident road and each intersection road j are calculated according to a formula, and the accident influence range is divided as shown in fig. 7.
Case analysis
S1, determining the influence range of the traffic accident time
1) Basic data analysis
The analysis is carried out by taking a traffic accident at a certain Minan section G324 of the national road of spring State City of Fujian province as an example. The national G324 line is the most important road for carrying the vehicle diversion task of the expansion project from the national high net sinking sea line to Zhangzhou highway. The national G324 Nanan section is a section of the national G324 route Nanan, the total length is about 25.90km, and the main technical and economic indexes are shown in Table 2.
TABLE 2G 324 Main technical index
Figure BDA0003203831090000131
The accident point is located at the starting point K212+840 and the end point K238+740, the whole line adopts the second-level highway standard, the two-way four-lane, the accident lane proportion is 0.5, and no related traffic warning sign is set after the accident. The normal traffic index mainly comprises the traffic volume and the traffic composition of the accident upstream; the accident attribute comprises indexes such as accident lane occupation ratio and the like; the running state index comprises average traffic density, speed and saturation. Based on the data obtained by the accident point survey, each evaluation index of the occurrence of an accident at the available accident point is shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 Accident Point related data
Figure BDA0003203831090000141
2) Accident duration calculation
According to the Van Aerde model, from qc,vf,vm,kjValue of (a) to calculate an intermediate variable c1＝0.0188,c2＝1.1718,c30.0004989, the q-v relationship is derived based on the formula (16):
Figure BDA0003203831090000142
the calculation formula of the wave velocity can be obtained as follows:
Figure BDA0003203831090000143
the flow rates at the respective stages after the occurrence of the accident are shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 traffic flow at each stage after traffic accident
Figure BDA0003203831090000144
The propagation of the effects of a traffic accident is shown in figure 8. The actual situation of the combined accident can be calculated by the Tmax calculation formula of the case 1 in table 1, the accident detection and response time T1 is judged to be 0.37h, the accident clearing stage T2 is judged to be 0.34h, as shown in fig. 4, the points a (0.5, 0), B (0.87, 0), C (1.21, 0) are known, and the traffic wave speed w can be calculated by the combined formula (17)01＝39.45km/h，w12＝49.63km/h，w2352.44 km/h. The meeting form of the obtained wave is w12First and w01Meet to form a collective wave w02Obtaining t according to a geometric-algebraic relationfThe maximum duration of the accident is 1.5 h:
Tmax＝T1+T2+T3＝tf-ta＝1h (18)
s2, calculating the space influence range of the traffic accident
1) Incident road accident influence range calculation
The method is used for researching the traffic influence of the common trunk road example accident in the Quanzhou city of Fujian province, and determining that the influence degree of the accident source point on the incident road is notThe corresponding maximum influence distance at the same level li is calculated as equation (13). Wherein ζ is 1; the bit for the 1000 accident origin point can depend on the accident type; a is 0.9, betal1＝0.05，βl2＝0.3，β l31. Trial calculation by actual accident data, CdTake 3.46X 10-7. Carrying in formula (13) to obtain:
Cl1＝6.92×10-6，Xl1264 meters are the maximum influence distance when the influence degree of the accident source point spread on the incident road is first level, and the area is the most seriously influenced;
Cl2＝1.15×10-6，Xl2479 meters is the maximum influence distance when the influence degree of the accident source point spread on the incident road is second level, and the road sections in the range are influenced obviously;
Cl3＝3.46×10-7，X l3715 m, which is the maximum influence distance when the influence degree of the accident source point spread on the incident road is three levels, and the influence degree is smaller.
S22: calculation of impact range of intersection road accident
And (3) the accident influence range of the crossed roads, and the cascade failure influence evaluation index of the road section when the load is distributed to the adjacent road section as the influence parameter Q of the accident diffusion source on the road section, wherein the influence parameter Q is shown in an expression (14):
Figure BDA0003203831090000151
an example road segment is located at a distance 136m from the accident occurrence position, and the road network diagram is shown in fig. 9.
Calculating the betweenness according to the formula in step S223
Figure BDA0003203831090000152
Calibrating volume according to example road data
Figure BDA0003203831090000153
Determining initial load of each road section
Figure BDA0003203831090000154
And initial weight
Figure BDA0003203831090000155
Determining the maximum load capacity of each road section
Figure BDA0003203831090000161
In the formula, γ is 100, δ is 0.6, τ is 0.8, α is 4, and β is 0.15; at the moment of t +1, distributing the loads of the failed road sections to the connected roads according to the proportion of epsilon being 0.2; calculating the load of each road at the moment of t +1, calculating the cascade failure influence evaluation index of each road at the moment of t +1, namely the influence parameter Q of the accident diffusion source on the road section, and obtaining the result of the evaluation index as the No. 3 crossed road section Q31.53, intersection section Q4＝2.29。
And when the influence degrees of the accident source points on the intersected roads are determined to be different levels li, the corresponding maximum influence distance is calculated as an expression (15). Wherein ζ is 1; a is 0.9; q3＝1.20； Q4＝2.29；xj＝136；Cl1＝6.92×10-6；Cl2＝1.15×10-6；Cl3＝3.46×10-7。
Substituting formula (15) to obtain:
when C is taken as Cl1When is corresponding to Xl3The maximum influence distance when the influence degree of the accident source point spread on the intersection road 3 is first grade is 269 meters, Xl4Is 340 m.
When C is taken as Cl2When is corresponding to Xl3The maximum influence distance of the accident source point on the intersection road 3 is 438 m and X when the influence degree is second levell3Is 485 meters.
When C is taken as Cl3When is corresponding to Xl3The maximum influence distance 521 m, X when the influence degree of the accident source point spread on the intersection road 3 is three levels l3561 m.
S3, classifying and determining space-time influence range of ellipse-like accidents
In the case of an accident, only the local lane is occupied, normal running of vehicles in the opposite lane is not affected, corresponding distance points with the same affected degree are connected smoothly in sequence, an accident affected area is divided into a primary affected area, a secondary affected area and a tertiary affected area, and an accident affected area graph is drawn as shown in fig. 10.
The above is a specific embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention should not be limited thereto. Any changes or substitutions that can be easily made by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present invention are included in the protection scope of the present invention, and therefore, the protection scope of the present invention is subject to the protection scope defined by the claims.

Claims (2)

1. A class ellipse accident time-space influence range grading determination method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1 traffic accident influence duration model
S11: establishing a traffic wave formula of the traffic accident based on the Van aerode model, and calculating the wave speed of each state stage of the traffic accident according to the traffic wave formula;
traffic waves:
Figure FDA0003588715350000011
in the formula, v1、v2Average rates of traffic flow upstream and downstream of the wave front, c1、c2、c3Is an intermediate variable, vfRepresenting the free flow velocity;
s12: based on wave velocity and time node information, calculating the duration of the traffic accident influence by using a geometric algebra method;
s2 traffic accident space influence range model
S21: establishing a spatial influence range formula of the traffic accident based on the Gaussian plume model;
spatial influence range formula:
Figure FDA0003588715350000012
in the formula, x is a distance, r is a diffusion radius, xi is a ratio xi epsilon (0, 1) of the diffusion traffic of the accident source point, xi is related to the accident type, Q is an influence parameter of the accident source point on the incident road/the intersected road, and a is a proportionality constant;
s22: classifying and discussing an influence parameter Q of an accident source point on an incident road and an intersecting road, and then determining a spatial influence range model of the accident source point;
an incident road:
Figure FDA0003588715350000013
the intersection road:
Figure FDA0003588715350000014
in the formula, XliThe maximum influence distance of the accident source point spread on the incident road, P is the potential energy of the accident source point, CliThe degree of influence of the accident source point on the incident road
Figure FDA0003588715350000021
CdThe ultimate influence of the accident source point on the incident road is a value close to 0 and is determined by trial calculation of actual accident data; beta is aliCalibrating according to grading requirements; j is the number of the crossed road; x is the number ofjThe horizontal distance from the intersection road j to the accident source point; xljThe maximum influence distance of the accident source point on the intersection road j is obtained; qjThe influence parameters of the accident source point on the intersection road j are shown;
s3, determining the space influence range of the traffic accident in a grading way
Dividing the type of the incident road according to whether the incident road has a central isolation zone; and then respectively determining the spatial influence range diagrams of different types of incident roads based on the spatial influence range models, and visually representing the influence magnitude and the range of the traffic accident.
2. The method for hierarchically determining the spatiotemporal influence range of the ellipse-like accident according to claim 1, wherein in the step S22, the influence parameters of the incident road are calibrated by the gravitational field theory, and the influence parameters of the intersecting road are calibrated by the cascade failure influence evaluation index;
cascade failure impact evaluation index:
Figure FDA0003588715350000022
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003588715350000023
in order to evaluate the index for the impact of cascade failure,
Figure FDA0003588715350000024
for real-time loading of the section ei, DeiThe load capacity of the section ei, t is the moment when the load is distributed to the adjacent sections, and theta is an adjusting parameter.
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