CN113610249B - Method for maintaining fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve according to conditions - Google Patents

Method for maintaining fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve according to conditions Download PDF

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CN113610249B
CN113610249B CN202110928266.2A CN202110928266A CN113610249B CN 113610249 B CN113610249 B CN 113610249B CN 202110928266 A CN202110928266 A CN 202110928266A CN 113610249 B CN113610249 B CN 113610249B
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陈明新
蔡宝平
杨俊�
刘可扬
杨子琪
王远东
张妍平
孔祥地
高春坦
盛朝洋
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China University of Petroleum East China
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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of petroleum engineering, and particularly relates to an all-electric-control underground safety valve visual maintenance method which comprises the steps of establishing a degradation process model of an all-electric-control underground safety valve, discretizing the degradation process, solving a degradation state transition probability matrix of the all-electric-control underground safety valve at inspection interval time, establishing a combined state space model of a spare part state and a degradation state, determining degradation state transition probability matrices of the all-electric-control underground safety valve in different maintenance modes, determining a maintenance action space of the all-electric-control underground safety valve and a combined state transition probability matrix of the all-electric-control underground safety valve in different combined states, establishing a reward matrix of the all-electric-control underground safety valve based on a Markov decision process, and obtaining optimal maintenance actions in different combined states by utilizing a strategy iterative algorithm of the Markov decision process.

Description

Method for maintaining fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve according to conditions
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of petroleum engineering, and particularly relates to an on-condition maintenance method of a fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve.
Background
The ocean oil and gas exploitation operation environment is complex, and in case of accidents such as blowout, oil spilling and fire disasters, the consequences and secondary disasters caused are far greater than those of onshore oil fields. The underground safety valve is an important component of an underground safety control system, is a device for automatically closing a well when a well mouth has major faults, is a safety control device which is required to be installed in oil-water wells of offshore oil fields, and has the functions of preventing production accidents and protecting equipment safety and marine environment.
Compared with a hydraulic control downhole safety valve, the fully-electric control downhole safety valve has the remarkable advantages of unlimited lower depth and high shut-in speed, and is the development direction of the downhole safety valve. However, the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve is high in maintenance cost and high in maintenance difficulty, and once a fault occurs, huge potential safety hazards are brought to oil gas production. The condition maintenance is a maintenance mode based on the current degradation state of the system, and can effectively reduce the maintenance intervention times and the maintenance cost on the premise of ensuring the safety and the reliability of the system. Therefore, an optional maintenance method for the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects in the prior art, the invention provides an all-electric control downhole safety valve condition maintenance method.
In order to realize the aim, the visual maintenance method of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve comprises the following 5 steps:
s1: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a degradation process model of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve according to historical fault data, discretizing the degradation process, and solving a degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve at inspection interval time, wherein the degradation process model specifically comprises the following steps:
s11: and establishing an internal degradation model of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve. Modeling an internal degradation process of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve as a gamma process;
s12: and establishing a fully-electrically-controlled external impact model of the underground safety valve in the marine environment. Modeling an external impact process of a marine environment of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve into a poisson process;
s13: discretizing the degradation process of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve, and solving a degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve at an inspection interval time by using a Monte Carlo simulation method; solving a degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve at the inspection interval time specifically comprises the following steps:
s131: initializing occurrence times of all degradation states of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve and transfer times among all degradation states;
s132: initializing the degradation amount of a full-electric control underground safety valve;
s133: simulating the degradation process of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve, and obtaining the degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve at intervals of inspection intervals;
s134: updating the occurrence frequency of each degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve and the transfer frequency among the degradation states;
s135: judging whether the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has a fault, returning to the step S133 if the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has no fault, judging whether the maximum simulation frequency is reached if the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has no fault, returning to the step S132 if the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has no fault, and finishing the simulation if the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has the maximum simulation frequency;
s2: establishing a joint state space model of the spare part state and the degradation state by combining the spare part state of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve;
s3: determining a degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve in different maintenance modes according to maintenance data of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve and degradation data after maintenance;
s4: determining a maintenance action space of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve and a joint state transition probability matrix when the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve takes different maintenance actions in different joint states, and specifically comprising the following steps of:
s41: and determining the maintenance action space of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve. The maintenance action space of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve comprises two parts of selection of a maintenance mode and ordering of spare parts, wherein the maintenance mode comprises 4 selections of non-maintenance, small maintenance, large maintenance and replacement, and the spare parts comprise 2 selections of ordering the spare parts and non-ordering the spare parts;
s42, determining a joint state transition probability matrix when the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve takes different maintenance actions in different joint states;
s5: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a reward matrix of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve based on the Markov decision process, and obtaining the optimal maintenance action in different combined states by utilizing a strategy iterative algorithm of the Markov decision process, wherein the reward matrix specifically comprises the following steps:
s51: a reward matrix is determined. The negative number of the maintenance cost is taken as the reward of the maintenance action. The cost of fully electrically controlled downhole safety valves includes maintenance costs for different maintenance modes, spare part costs, and loss of shutdown due to failure;
s52: the optimal maintenance strategy under different combined states is obtained by utilizing a strategy iterative algorithm of a Markov decision process, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s521: initializing a state value function and a maintenance strategy;
s522: iteratively updating the state value function according to a maintenance strategy;
s523: judging whether the state value function is converged; when the state value function is converged, obtaining the state value function of the current maintenance strategy; when the state value function does not converge, return to step S522;
s524: solving an action value function according to the converged state value function;
s525: updating the maintenance strategy according to the action value function;
s526: and judging whether the maintenance strategy is converged, returning to the step S522 when the maintenance strategy is not converged, and otherwise outputting the optimal maintenance strategy, namely the optimal maintenance action of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve in different combined states.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects: the visual maintenance method of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve discretizes the degradation process of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve, forms a combined state with the spare part state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve, considers various maintenance modes and the ordering condition of spare parts during maintenance, and solves and obtains optimal maintenance actions in different combined states by utilizing a Markov decision process. Compared with a strategy of timing maintenance, the maintenance mode is more flexible, and has stronger operability, so that the maintenance cost can be effectively reduced, and the maintenance level of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic view of an in-situ maintenance method for a fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a degradation process of a fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating a state transition of a fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve in a degraded state
FIG. 4 is a flowchart for solving a transition probability matrix of fully electrically controlled subsurface safety valve degradation states
FIG. 5 is a flow chart of a Markov decision process strategy iterative algorithm
Detailed Description
The present invention will now be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
As shown in fig. 1, an on-the-fly maintenance method for a fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve includes the following 5 steps:
s1: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a degradation process model of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve according to historical fault data, discretizing the degradation process, and solving a degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve at inspection interval time, wherein the degradation process model specifically comprises the following steps:
s11: and establishing an internal degradation model of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve. Modeling the internal degradation process of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve as a gamma process, wherein the degradation amount x of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve in the inspection interval time TTObey the gamma distribution, as follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000041
Figure BDA0003209928000000042
wherein, f (x)Tα, β) is a gamma distribution density function, α is a shape parameter of the gamma distribution, β is an inverse scale parameter of the gamma distribution, and Γ (x)T) For the gamma function, the shape parameters and inverse scale parameters of the gamma distribution are determined from historical data.
Total internal degradation X of fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve in g inspection interval timesgComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003209928000000051
wherein x isT kThe degradation amount of the kth inspection interval time of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve is shown, wherein k is the inspection interval time number;
s12: and establishing a fully-electrically-controlled external impact model of the underground safety valve in the marine environment. The external impact process of the marine environment of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is modeled as a Poisson process. For any time period t1≥0,t2Is greater than or equal to 0, has
Figure BDA0003209928000000052
Wherein N is the number of times that the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve is impacted by the external part of the marine environment, and N isc(t1+t2) Is t1+t2Number of external impacts on the marine environment, N, on a time periodc(t1) Is t1The number of times of external impact on the marine environment in the time period, P { N }c(t1+t2)-Nc(t1) N is at any value of t2And the probability of the occurrence of n times of external impact of the marine environment in the time period, wherein lambda is a parameter of Poisson distribution and is determined by historical data.
Degradation x caused by external impact in marine environmentwObey a normal distribution, as follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000053
wherein, f (x)w) And the average value of the degradation quantity caused by the external impact of the marine environment is mu, and the variance of the degradation quantity caused by the external impact of the marine environment is sigma, and the variance is determined by historical data.
Total amount of external impact X in marine environmentwComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003209928000000054
wherein x isw hAmount of degeneration caused by external impact in the h-th marine environment, NwThe number of the external impact times of the marine environment is h, and the number of the external impact times of the marine environment is h.
As shown in FIG. 2, the degradation X of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve is the total internal degradation XgAnd total amount of external impact X of marine environmentwAnd (c) the sum, i.e.:
X＝Xg+Xw
in the figure, 'o' indicates that external impact of marine environment occurs, and 'x' indicates that the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve fails. L represents the failure threshold value of the full-electric-control underground safety valve, and when the degeneration quantity X of the full-electric-control underground safety valve exceeds the failure threshold value L, the full-electric-control underground safety valve fails, TFIndicating the time at which the fault occurred. Under the condition of not adopting maintenance and replacement, the degeneration quantity of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is monotonously increased along with the increase of time.
S13: discretizing the degradation process of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve, and solving a degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve at an inspection interval by using a Monte Carlo simulation method, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps of:
degradation state S of fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve0The classification is healthy, good, normal, bad, faulty, as follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000061
for ease of description, healthy, good, normal, poor and fault conditions are indicated by 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, respectively.
The transition between the degraded states of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve is shown in fig. 3, where P isijRepresenting the probability of the fully electrically controlled subsurface safety valve transitioning from degraded state i to degraded state j at the check interval time T.
The degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve at the check interval time T is obtained through Monte Carlo simulation, and the implementation mode is as shown in FIG. 4, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s131: initializing the occurrence times of all degradation states of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve and the transfer times among all degradation states;
s132: initializing the degradation quantity of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve;
s133: simulating the degradation process of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve, and obtaining the degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve at intervals of a check interval T;
s134: updating the occurrence frequency of each degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve and the transfer frequency among the degradation states;
s135: and judging whether the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has a fault, returning to the step S133 if the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has no fault, judging whether the maximum simulation times are reached if the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has no fault, returning to the step S132 if the maximum simulation times are not reached, and finishing the simulation if the maximum simulation times are reached.
Transition probability P of fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve to transition from degraded state i to degraded state j in check interval time TijAs follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000071
wherein N isiNumber of occurrences of degenerate state i, NijChecking the number of transitions to the degraded state j after the interval time T for the current degraded state being i;
since the degradation process of a fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve is monotonically increasing, when j<When i is, P ij0; when the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve is in a failure state, the failure state is maintained under the condition of no maintenance, so that P44＝1；
The degradation state transition probability matrix when the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve is degraded normally is as follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000072
s2: and establishing a joint state space model of the spare part state and the degradation state by combining the spare part state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve.
The spare part state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is a spare part state and a spare part-free state which are respectively represented by Y and F, the degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is healthy, good, general, poor and fault 5 which are respectively represented by 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4, and the combined state S formed by the spare part state and the degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is 10 which are respectively { (healthy, spare part-free), (good, spare part), (general, spare part-free), (poor, spare part), (fault, spare part), (healthy, spare part), (good, spare part), (general, spare part), (poor, spare part), (fault, spare part) }, and the set formed by the 10 combined states S is the state space S of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve1Expressed as:
S1＝{(0,F),(1,F),(2,F),(3,F),(4,F),(0,Y),(1,Y),(2,Y),(3,Y),(4,Y)}
after the spare part is ordered at the current time, at the next inspection time, i.e., after the inspection interval time T, the spare part ordering is successful, and the spare part status is changed to have the spare part.
S3: determining a degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve in different maintenance modes according to maintenance data of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve and degradation data after maintenance;
the maintenance modes of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve comprise non-maintenance, minor repair, major repair and replacement, and the degradation state transition probability matrix P in the minor repair mode is obtained according to the maintenance data1As follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000081
wherein, Pij 1In order to realize the probability of transferring to the degradation state j when minor repair is carried out in the degradation state i, the minor repair has a lower probability of keeping the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve in the degradation state before maintenance, and the minor repair has a higher probability of returning the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve to the previous degradation state in the degradation state before maintenance, such as when minor repair is carried out in a general degradation state, maintenance is carried outAfter the repair, the probability is small and the state is kept in a general degradation state, and the probability of transferring to a good degradation state and transferring to other degradation states is 0;
degraded state transition probability matrix P in overhaul mode2As follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000091
wherein, Pij 2For the probability of transferring to the degradation state j when major repair is carried out on the degradation state i, compared with minor repair, the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve can return to a better state more probably after major repair;
degraded state transition probability matrix P in replacement mode3As follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000092
no matter what kind of degradation state the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve is replaced, the degradation state after replacement is healthy.
S4: determining a maintenance action space of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve and a joint state transition probability matrix when the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve takes different maintenance actions in different joint states, and specifically comprising the following steps of:
s41: and determining a maintenance action space A of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve. The maintenance action space of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve comprises two parts of selection of a maintenance mode and ordering of spare parts, wherein the maintenance mode comprises 4 selections of no maintenance, small maintenance, major maintenance and replacement, the spare parts comprise 2 selections of ordering the spare parts and not ordering the spare parts, and when the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve comprises the spare parts, the spare parts cannot be continuously ordered, namely, only one spare part is available at most. When the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has no spare parts, the replacement operation cannot be carried out. The maintenance action space of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve in different combined states s is as follows:
S11in a joint state without spare parts, S11＝{(0，F) (1, F), (2, F), (3, F), (4, F) }, when S ∈ S11In the meantime, the maintenance action space is { (not maintain, not buy spare parts), (not maintain, buy spare parts), (minor repair, not buy spare parts), (minor repair, buy spare parts), (major repair, not buy spare parts), (major repair, buy spare parts) };
S12for the association of spare parts, S12When S ∈ S, the term { (0, Y), (1, Y), (2, Y), (3, Y), (4, Y) } is used12In the meantime, the maintenance action space is { (not maintain, not buy spare parts), (minor repair, not buy spare parts), (major repair, not buy spare parts), (replacement, buy spare parts) }.
S42: and determining a joint state transition probability matrix of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve when different joint states s adopt different maintenance actions a.
When the maintenance action a is (maintenance-free, spare part is not purchased), the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve is normally degraded during the checking interval time T, and the state of the spare part is kept unchanged, so that the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve takes the combined state transition probability matrix P of the maintenance action a (maintenance-free, spare part-non-purchasing) to perform(maintenance-free, purchase-free spare parts)As follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000101
wherein, P0A degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve in a normal degradation state is set, wherein 0 is a zero matrix of 5 multiplied by 5;
when the maintenance action a is not (maintenance is not performed, and spare parts are purchased), the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve is normally degraded, and after the inspection interval time T, the state of the spare parts is changed into the state with the spare parts. In a combined state S with spare parts12Such a maintenance action cannot be taken, and therefore, the joint state transition probability matrix P of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve under the maintenance action taken (without maintenance, purchasing spare parts)(maintenance free, purchase spare parts)As follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000102
when the maintenance action a is equal to (minor repair, spare part is not purchased), the degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve is promoted after the minor repair, the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve is normally degraded during the inspection interval time T, and the state of the spare part is kept unchanged, so that the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve adopts the combined state transition probability matrix P of the maintenance action a (non-maintenance, spare part is purchased)(minor repair, not purchasing spare parts)As follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000103
wherein, P1Is a degradation state transition probability matrix P of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve in a minor repair mode1·P0To take a minor fix, the degenerate state transition probability matrix is normally degenerate at check interval T.
When the maintenance action a is equal to (minor repair, purchase of spare part), after the check interval time T, the spare part state is changed to a spare part existing state, and a spare part existing united state S is set12Such a maintenance action cannot be taken, and therefore, the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve takes the combined state transition probability matrix P of maintenance action a (minor repair, purchase of spare parts)(minor repair, purchase spare parts)As follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000111
when the maintenance action a is (overhaul, spare part is not purchased), the degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve is promoted after the overhaul, the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve is normally degraded during the inspection interval time T, and the state of the spare part is kept unchanged, so that the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve takes the combined state transition probability matrix P of the maintenance action a (overhaul, spare part is not purchased)(overhaul, not purchasing spare parts)As follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000112
wherein, P2Is a degradation state transition probability matrix, P, of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve in the overhaul mode2·P0To take the major repair, the probability matrix of the transition of the degraded state of normal degradation is checked at an interval T.
When the maintenance action a is (overhaul, purchase spare part), after the check interval time T, the spare part state is changed to the spare part, and the spare part is in the combined state S12Such a maintenance action cannot be taken, and therefore, the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve takes the combined state transition probability matrix P of maintenance action a ═ (overhaul, purchase of spare parts)(overhaul, purchase spare parts)As follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000113
when the maintenance action a is changed (replacement, spare parts are not purchased), the spare part state is changed from the spare part state to the spare part-free state, and the spare part-free combined state S is adopted11Then, such a maintenance action cannot be taken, the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve returns to health in the degraded state after replacement, and normally degrades during the inspection interval time T, and therefore, the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve takes the combined state transition probability matrix P of maintenance action a ═ (replacement, no spare parts purchased)(Change, not purchase spare parts)As follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000121
wherein, P3Is a degradation state transition probability matrix, P, of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve in the overhaul mode3·P0To take the replacement, the degraded state transition probability matrix is normally degraded at the check interval time T.
When the maintenance action a is changed (or the spare part is purchased), the spare part is used first, the spare part is ordered, after the check interval time T, the state of the spare part is restored to the state with the spare part, and in the united state S without the spare part11In the following, such dimension cannot be adoptedAnd (6) repairing. Thus, the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve takes the joint state transition probability matrix P of the maintenance action a (replacement, purchase of spare parts)(Replacing, purchasing spare parts)As follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000122
s5: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a reward matrix of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve based on the Markov decision process, and obtaining the optimal maintenance action in different combined states by utilizing a strategy iterative algorithm of the Markov decision process, wherein the reward matrix specifically comprises the following steps:
s51: determining a reward matrix R (S)1A). The negative number of the maintenance cost is taken as the reward of the maintenance action. The costs of fully electrically controlled downhole safety valves include maintenance costs for different maintenance modes, spare part costs, and lost downtime due to failure. Spare part cost includes spare part purchase cost CbAnd spare part storage cost Cc. When the spare parts are purchased, a spare part purchase fee is generated. When the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve has spare parts, certain spare part storage cost is generated at the inspection interval time T. The cost required for maintenance depends on the degradation state, and the worse the degradation state, the higher the cost of maintenance.
The maintenance costs when not in service include the daily maintenance costs and the inspection costs, and the reward matrix when not in service is as follows:
R(S11(maintenance, spare parts not purchased)) -1 · [ C ·0,C1,C2,C3,CD]
R(S11(maintenance free, spare part purchased)) -1 · [ C ·0+Cb,C1+Cb,C2+Cb,C3+Cb,CD+Cb]
R(S12(maintenance, spare parts not purchased)) -1 · [ C ·0+Cc,C1+Cc,C2+Cc,C3+Cc,CD+Cc]
Wherein S is11Is without standbyCombined state of the elements, S12In the combined state with spare parts, C0、C1、C2、C3The daily maintenance and inspection costs when the state of degradation is healthy, good, normal, poor, respectively, CDThe failure loss caused by the failure of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve is avoided.
The reward matrix at minor and major repairs is as follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000131
Figure BDA0003209928000000132
Figure BDA0003209928000000133
Figure BDA0003209928000000134
Figure BDA0003209928000000135
Figure BDA0003209928000000136
wherein, C0 1、C1 1、C2 1、C3 1、C4 1Respectively the minor repair cost when the degradation state is healthy, good, common, poor and fault; c0 2、C1 2、C2 2、C3 2、C4 2The degradation states are healthy, good, common, poor and overhaul costs when the fault occurs respectively;
the cost of replacement is the labor cost required for replacement, and the same cost is required regardless of the degradation state in which the replacement operation is performed, and the reward matrix at the time of replacement is as follows:
R(S12(replacement, no spare parts purchased)) -1 · [ C ]r,Cr,Cr,Cr,Cr+CD]
R(S12(replacement, purchase of spare parts)) -1 · [ C ]r+Cb,Cr+Cb,Cr+Cb,Cr+Cb,Cr+CD+Cb]
Wherein, CrFor replacement costs.
Reward matrix R (S) of fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve under different combined states S and maintenance actions a1A) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000141
s52: obtaining optimal maintenance strategy pi (S) under different combined states S by using strategy iterative algorithm of Markov decision process1) As shown in fig. 5, the method specifically includes the following steps:
s521: initializing a state value function v and a maintenance strategy pi;
s522: and iteratively updating the state value function v according to the maintenance strategy pi, wherein the iterative updating is as follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000142
wherein s, s' is the combined state of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve, a is the maintenance action of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve, vt+1Is a function of the state value at the t +1 th iteration, pi (a | s) is the probability of taking the maintenance action a when the combined state is s, R (s, a) is the reward of taking the maintenance action a when the combined state is s, gamma is the discount coefficient, P (s '| s, a) is the probability of the combined state transferring to s' when the combined state is s and the maintenance action a is taken, vtAs a function of the state value at the t-th iteration.
S523: judging whether the state value function v is converged;
when the state value function v satisfies the following formula, v converges to obtain the state value function v when the maintenance strategy is piπWhen the state value function v does not converge, return to step S522;
Figure BDA0003209928000000143
wherein v isπIs a function of the state value of convergence when the maintenance strategy is pi;
s524: the action value function q is determined from the converged state value function v as follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000144
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003209928000000145
is that the maintenance policy is pizA function of action values of time;
Figure BDA0003209928000000146
for maintenance strategy of pizA function of the state value of time;
s525: the maintenance strategy pi is updated according to the action value function q as follows:
Figure BDA0003209928000000151
wherein, piz+1Maintenance strategy, pi, for the z +1 th updatezA maintenance strategy obtained for the z-th update;
s526: judging whether the maintenance strategy pi is converged, returning to the step S522 when the maintenance strategy pi is not converged, otherwise outputting the optimal maintenance strategy pi*Namely the optimal maintenance action a of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve under different combined states s.

Claims (5)

1. An all-electric control method for maintaining a downhole safety valve according to the condition is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1: establishing an internal degradation model of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve and an external impact model of the marine environment of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve according to historical fault data, and determining the degradation amount of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve;
the internal degradation process of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is modeled into a gamma process, and the degradation amount x of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve in the inspection interval time TTObey the gamma distribution, as follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000011
Figure FDA0003516473130000012
wherein, f (x)Tα, β) is a gamma distribution density function, α is a shape parameter of the gamma distribution, β is an inverse scale parameter of the gamma distribution, and Γ (x)T) For a gamma function, shape parameters and inverse scale parameters of the gamma distribution are determined from historical data;
total internal degradation X of fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve in g inspection interval timesgComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003516473130000013
wherein x isT kThe degradation amount of the kth inspection interval time of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve is shown, wherein k is the inspection interval time number;
the marine environment external impact process of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is modeled into a Poisson process, t1 is more than or equal to 0, t2 is more than or equal to 0 for any time period, and
Figure FDA0003516473130000014
wherein N is the number of times that the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve is impacted by the external part of the marine environment, and N isc(t1+t2) Is t1+t2Number of external impacts on the marine environment, N, on a time periodc(t1) Is t1Number of times of external impacts on the marine environment, P { N), on a time periodc(t1+t2)-Nc(t1) N is at any value of t2The probability of the occurrence of n times of external impacts of the marine environment in a time period, wherein lambda is a parameter of Poisson distribution and is determined by historical data;
degradation x caused by external impact in marine environmentwObey a normal distribution, as follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000021
wherein, f (x)w) The density function is normally distributed, mu is the mean value of the degradation quantity caused by the external impact of the marine environment, and sigma is the variance of the degradation quantity caused by the external impact of the marine environment and is determined by historical data;
total amount of external impact X in marine environmentwComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003516473130000022
wherein x isw hAmount of degeneration caused by external impact in the h-th marine environment, NwThe number of external impact times of the marine environment is h, and the number of the external impact times of the marine environment is h;
the degeneration quantity X of the fully-electric-controlled underground safety valve is the total internal degeneration quantity XgAnd total amount of external impact X of marine environmentwAnd (c) the sum, i.e.:
X＝Xg+Xw
the failure threshold value of the full-electric-control underground safety valve is L, and when the degradation quantity X of the full-electric-control underground safety valve exceeds the failure threshold value L, the full-electric-control underground safety valve fails; under the condition of not adopting maintenance and replacement, the degeneration quantity of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is monotonically increased along with the increase of time;
s2: establishing a joint state space model of the spare part state and the degradation state by combining the spare part state of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve;
the spare part state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is a spare part state and a spare part-free state which are respectively represented by Y and F, the degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is healthy, good, general, poor and fault 5 which are respectively represented by 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4, and the combined state S formed by the spare part state and the degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is 10 which are respectively { (healthy, spare part-free), (good, spare part), (general, spare part-free), (poor, spare part), (fault, spare part), (healthy, spare part), (good, spare part), (general, spare part), (poor, spare part), (fault, spare part) }, and the set formed by the 10 combined states S is the state space S of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve1Expressed as:
S1＝{(0,F),(1,F),(2,F),(3,F),(4,F),(0,Y),(1,Y),(2,Y),(3,Y),(4,Y)}
after the spare part is ordered at the current moment, at the next checking moment, namely after the checking interval time T, the spare part is ordered successfully, and the state of the spare part is changed into the state with the spare part;
s3: determining a degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve in different maintenance modes according to maintenance data of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve and degradation data after maintenance;
s4: determining a maintenance action space of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve and a joint state transition probability matrix when the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve takes different maintenance actions in different joint states;
a maintenance action space A of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve; the maintenance action space of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve comprises two parts, namely, the selection of a maintenance mode and the ordering of spare parts, wherein the maintenance mode comprises 4 selections of no maintenance, small maintenance, major maintenance and replacement, the spare parts comprise 2 selections of ordering the spare parts and not ordering the spare parts, and when the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve has the spare parts, the spare parts cannot be ordered continuously, namely, only one spare part is available at most; when the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has no spare parts, the replacement operation cannot be carried out; the maintenance action space of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve in different combined states s is as follows:
S11in a joint state without spare parts, S11When S ∈ S, is equal to { (0, F), (1, F), (2, F), (3, F), (4, F) }11In the meantime, the maintenance action space is { (not maintain, not buy spare parts), (not maintain, buy spare parts), (minor repair, not buy spare parts), (minor repair, buy spare parts), (major repair, not buy spare parts), (major repair, buy spare parts) };
S12for the union state of spare parts, S12When S ∈ S, the term { (0, Y), (1, Y), (2, Y), (3, Y), (4, Y) } is used12In the process, the maintenance action space is { (not maintain, not buy spare parts), (minor repair, not buy spare parts), (major repair, not buy spare parts), (change, buy spare parts) };
s5: establishing a reward matrix of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve based on a Markov decision process, and obtaining optimal maintenance actions in different combined states by utilizing a strategy iterative algorithm of the Markov decision process;
taking the negative number of the maintenance cost as the reward of the maintenance action; the cost of fully electrically controlled downhole safety valves includes maintenance costs for different maintenance modes, spare part costs, and loss of shutdown due to failure; spare part cost includes spare part purchase cost CbAnd spare part storage cost Cc(ii) a When the spare parts are purchased, spare part purchase cost is generated; when the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has spare parts, certain spare part storage cost can be generated at the inspection interval time T; the cost required for maintenance depends on the degradation state, and the worse the degradation state, the higher the cost of maintenance.
2. The method for the on-the-fly maintenance of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve according to claim 1, wherein: discretizing the degradation process of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve, and solving a degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve at an inspection interval time by using a Monte Carlo simulation method, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
degradation state S of fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve0The classification is healthy, good, normal, bad, faulty, as follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000041
for convenience of description, healthy, good, normal, poor and fault conditions are denoted by 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, respectively;
the degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve at the inspection interval time T is obtained through Monte Carlo simulation, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s131: initializing occurrence times of all degradation states of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve and transfer times among all degradation states;
s132: initializing the degradation amount of a full-electric control underground safety valve;
s133: simulating the degradation process of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve, and obtaining the degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve at intervals of a check interval T;
s134: updating the occurrence frequency of each degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve and the transfer frequency among the degradation states;
s135: judging whether the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has a fault, returning to the step S133 if the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has no fault, judging whether the maximum simulation frequency is reached if the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has no fault, returning to the step S132 if the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has no fault, and finishing the simulation if the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve has the maximum simulation frequency;
transition probability P of fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve to transition from degraded state i to degraded state j in check interval time TijAs follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000051
wherein N isiNumber of occurrences of degenerate state i, NijChecking the number of transitions to the degraded state j after the interval time T for the current degraded state being i;
since the degradation process of a fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve is monotonically increasing, when j<When i is, Pij0; when the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve is in a failure state, the failure state is maintained under the condition of no maintenance, so that P44＝1；
The degradation state transition probability matrix when the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve is degraded normally is as follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000052
3. the method for the on-the-fly maintenance of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve according to claim 1, wherein: the maintenance modes of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve comprise non-maintenance, minor repair, major repair and replacement, and the degradation state transition probability matrix P in the minor repair mode is obtained according to maintenance data1As follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000053
wherein, Pij 1Probability of transition to the degraded state j when minor repair is applied to the degraded state i;
probability matrix P of transition of degraded state in overhaul mode2As follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000061
wherein, Pij 2Probability of transition to the degraded state j when major repair is performed in the degraded state i;
degraded state transition probability matrix P in replacement mode3As follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000062
no matter what kind of degradation state the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve is replaced, the degradation state after replacement is healthy.
4. The method for the on-the-fly maintenance of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve according to claim 1, wherein:
determining a joint state transition probability matrix when the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve takes different maintenance actions a in different joint states s;
when the maintenance action a is (maintenance-free, spare part is not purchased), the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve is normally degraded during the checking interval time T, and the state of the spare part is kept unchanged, so that the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve takes the combined state transition probability matrix P of the maintenance action a (maintenance-free, spare part-non-purchasing) to perform(maintenance-free, purchase-free spare parts)As follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000063
wherein, P0The matrix is a degradation state transition probability matrix of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve in a normal degradation state, and 0 is a zero matrix of 5 multiplied by 5;
when the maintenance action a is not (maintenance is not carried out, spare parts are purchased), the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is normally degraded, and after the inspection interval time T, the state of the spare parts is changed into the state with the spare parts; in a combined state S with spare parts12Such a maintenance action cannot be taken, and therefore, the joint state transition probability matrix P of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve under the maintenance action taken (without maintenance, purchasing spare parts)(maintenance free, purchase spare parts)As follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000071
when the maintenance action a is equal to (minor repair, spare part is not purchased), the degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve is promoted after the minor repair, the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve is normally degraded during the inspection interval time T, and the state of the spare part is kept unchanged, so that the fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve adopts the combined state transition probability matrix P of the maintenance action a (non-maintenance, spare part is purchased)(minor repair, not purchasing spare parts)As follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000072
wherein, P1Is a degradation state transition probability matrix P of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve in a minor repair mode1·P0After minor repair is adopted, a normally degenerated degeneration state transition probability matrix is checked at an interval time T;
when the maintenance action a is (small repair, purchase of spare parts), after the check interval time T, the spare part state is changed to the spare part existing state, and the spare part existing state is in the united state S12Such a maintenance action cannot be taken, and therefore, the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve takes the combined state transition probability matrix P of maintenance action a (minor repair, purchase of spare parts)(minor repair, purchase spare parts)As follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000073
when the maintenance action a is equal to (overhaul, spare part is not purchased), the degradation state of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is improved after the overhaul, the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve is normally degraded during the inspection interval time T, and the state of the spare part is kept unchanged, so that the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve takes the combined state transition probability matrix P of the maintenance action a (overhaul, spare part is not purchased)(overhaul, not purchasing spare parts)As follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000074
wherein, P2Is a degradation state transition probability matrix P of the fully-electrically-controlled underground safety valve in the overhaul mode2·P0A normally degenerated state transition probability matrix is checked at an interval T after major repair is adopted;
when the maintenance action a is (overhaul, purchase spare part), after the check interval time T, the spare part state is changed to the spare part, and the spare part is in the combined state S12Such a maintenance action cannot be taken, and therefore, the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve takes the combined state transition probability matrix P of maintenance action a ═ (overhaul, purchase of spare parts)(overhaul, purchase spare parts)As follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000081
when the maintenance action a is changed (replacement, spare parts are not purchased), the spare part state is changed from the spare part state to the spare part-free state, and the spare part-free combined state S is adopted11Then, such a maintenance action cannot be taken, the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve recovers to health in a degraded state after the replacement, and normally degrades during the inspection interval time T, and thus, the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve takes the combined state transition probability matrix P of the maintenance action a (replacement, no spare parts purchased)(Change, not purchase spare parts)As follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000082
wherein, P3Is a degradation state transition probability matrix, P, of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve in the overhaul mode3·P0A degradation state transition probability matrix for normal degradation at the check interval time T after replacement is adopted;
when the maintenance action a is satisfied (replacement, spare part purchase), the spare part is used first, the spare part is ordered, after the check interval time T, the spare part state is restored to the spare part state, and in the united state S without spare part11Next, no such maintenance action can be taken; thus, the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve takes the joint state transition probability matrix P of the maintenance action a (replacement, purchase of spare parts)(Replacing, purchasing spare parts)As follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000083
5. the method for the on-the-fly maintenance of the fully electrically controlled downhole safety valve according to claim 1, wherein:
the maintenance costs when not in service include the daily maintenance costs and the inspection costs, and the reward matrix when not in service is as follows:
R(S11(without maintenance, without purchasing spare parts)) -1 · [ C · C0,C1,C2,C3,CD]
R(S11(maintenance free, spare part purchased)) -1 · [ C ·0+Cb,C1+Cb,C2+Cb,C3+Cb,CD+Cb]
R(S12(maintenance, spare parts not purchased)) -1 · [ C ·0+Cc,C1+Cc,C2+Cc,C3+Cc,CD+Cc]
Wherein S is11In a joint state without spare parts, S12In the combined state with spare parts, C0、C1、C2、C3The daily maintenance and inspection costs when the state of degradation is healthy, good, normal, poor, respectively, CDThe failure loss is caused by the failure of the fully electrically controlled underground safety valve;
the reward matrix at minor and major repairs is as follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000091
Figure FDA0003516473130000092
Figure FDA0003516473130000093
Figure FDA0003516473130000094
Figure FDA0003516473130000095
Figure FDA0003516473130000096
wherein, C0 1、C1 1、C2 1、C3 1、C4 1Respectively the minor repair cost when the degradation state is healthy, good, common, poor and fault; c0 2、C1 2、C2 2、C3 2、C4 2The degradation states are healthy, good, common, poor and overhaul costs when the fault occurs respectively;
the cost of replacement is the labor cost required for replacement, and the same cost is required regardless of the degradation state in which the replacement operation is performed, and the reward matrix at the time of replacement is as follows:
R(S12(replacement, no spare parts purchased)) -1 · [ C ]r,Cr,Cr,Cr,Cr+CD]
R(S12(replacement, purchase of spare parts)) -1 · [ C ]r+Cb,Cr+Cb,Cr+Cb,Cr+Cb,Cr+CD+Cb]
Wherein, CrFor replacement costs;
reward matrix R (S) of fully-electrically-controlled downhole safety valve under different combined states S and maintenance actions a1A) is as follows:
Figure FDA0003516473130000101
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