CN113609756B - Island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method, which comprises the steps of forming a historical fault data set by counting fault frequency, fault duration and power loss load of island distribution line fault drainage line samples, and carrying out clustering treatment to obtain fault partitions; taking a fault drainage line with the highest fault frequency value in each fault partition as a typical representative; collecting wind speed, a line wind direction, a drainage line temperature, solar radiation intensity, an environmental temperature, salt haze and relative humidity of a typical fault drainage line sample set to form a historical environmental data set, and solving wind load operation failure probability and temperature rise failure probability of the drainage line to further obtain operation failure probability; solving the failure correction coefficient by an entropy weight method, correcting the operation failure probability of the drainage line, and further obtaining the comprehensive operation failure index for evaluation. Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages of improving the operation failure evaluation accuracy, reducing the evaluation workload and the like.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of monitoring of drainage line states of distribution lines in a sea island environment, in particular to a method for evaluating operation failure of drainage lines of a sea island distribution line.
Background
Compared with inland areas, the sea island has special geographic meteorological environment and is mainly characterized by strong wind speed, heavy salt fog, high humidity and other environmental characteristics. In particular, due to higher salt mist content in the sea island air, the insulation aging and performance degradation degree of the sea island power distribution network equipment are obviously aggravated each year due to salt mist corrosion and strong wind attack. Therefore, reliable state detection is carried out on island distribution line equipment, health management on the equipment can be effectively achieved, and operation stability of the island distribution network is improved.
The drain wire is a member of the power distribution plant that plays an important role in the power distribution line. The drainage wire operates in the island strong wind speed and strong corrosion environment, the mechanical performance and the electrical performance of the drainage wire are seriously damaged, and the main fault forms are as follows: the drainage wire heats, breaks and swings to cause interphase short circuit fault after breaking. According to statistics, more than 300 power distribution network electrical equipment faults occur in the power distribution network of Zhejiang Zhoushan in 2016-2019, and power failure of the power distribution line caused by the fault of the drainage line accounts for more than 60% of the total number of faults. Therefore, failure assessment of the distribution line drainage lines in an island-typical environment is particularly important.
The prior fault research on the drainage wire is mainly focused on: vibration strand breakage, corrosion and aging of the drainage wire and galloping strand breakage faults generated by long-term action of wind load force on the drainage wire, and drainage wire fault early warning considering influence of meteorological disasters. The fatigue fracture characteristics generated by the action of wind load force on the drainage wire are researched and analyzed by constructing a drainage wire swing fatigue test platform, but the fatigue fracture characteristics are not combined with the actual running environment only from the perspective of the wind load test of the drainage wire, particularly the influence of the special strong wind speed and strong corrosion environment of the island is not considered, and the fatigue fracture characteristics have larger limitations. The method is used for analyzing the influence of wind load on the drainage wire in inland environments by using a meteorological coefficient method, and the method is used for predicting the operation failure of the drainage wire in strong wind environments by using a data driving mode. However, these studies lack consideration of multiple environmental scenarios and lack detection analysis of the state of operation of the drainage lines in the islands-in-the-sea environment.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provide a failure evaluation method for the operation of a drainage wire of an island distribution line.
The aim of the invention can be achieved by the following technical scheme:
a island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method comprises the following steps:
s1: and obtaining the fault frequency, the fault duration and the power failure load of the island distribution line fault drainage line sample, and forming a historical fault data set by the three.
S2: and performing dimension reduction processing on the historical fault data set to obtain a two-dimensional matrix of the historical fault data set.
Further, the KPCA-Kmeans method is adopted to conduct dimension reduction processing on the historical fault data set. The method comprises the following specific steps:
21 (Y) forming the historical failure data set { Y } into a high-dimensional matrix y= [ Y ] 1 ，y 2 ，y 3 ]，y 1 ，y 2 ，y 3 The fault frequency, the fault duration and the power failure load of the island distribution line fault drainage line sample are respectively obtained, and a high-dimensional characteristic image l is obtained through mapping phi i ，i＝1，2，3；
22 For l) i Solving the new objective as follows:
wherein w is i Is a projected hyperplane;λ i is->Is a characteristic value of (2); m=3.
23 Using a kernel sigmoid function to implement the mapping phi:
wherein, tan h is hyperbolic tangent function; j is i in the hyperplane w i Corresponding values, j=i=1, 2,3; β and μ are constants, taking β=3, μ=11.16;
24 Simplification of 22) the new target by the sigmoid function:
Kα ij ＝λ j α ij
wherein K is a kernel matrix corresponding to a sigmoid function, K ij ＝sigmoid(y i ,y j )，α ij Alpha, which corresponds to the hyperplane j for plane i, is numerically equal to alpha i Equal lambda j Numerically and lambda i Equal;
25 Matrix y= [ Y ] 1 ，y 2 ，y 3 ]Reducing to two dimensions to obtain a matrix z]The coordinates of the n (n=1, 2) th dimension are:
s3: clustering the two-dimensional matrix of the historical fault data set, primarily dividing the fault drainage line sample to obtain three types of fault areas, and taking the sum of fault frequency, fault duration and power failure load of each area as a criterion to obtain three types of fault partitions with successively decreasing fault degrees. The specific contents are as follows:
31 Setting the cluster number as 3, and randomly selecting an initial mean vector c, (c E [ z ]);
32 Through a distance calculation formula: d= |z '-c| and solving the distances between the vectors z' and c of other groups in the matrix [ z ];
33 Setting iteration times, continuously selecting a new mean value vector c from the matrix [ z ] to carry out iteration updating, and obtaining three types of preliminarily divided fault partitions according to a final fault drainage line sample clustering partition result after the iteration times are finished;
34 At this time according to the failure frequency y of all failure drainage line sample sets in each failure partition 1 And failure duration y 2 Numerically summing it y 1 +y 2 Three types of fault partitions with sequentially decreasing fault degrees are obtained according to the numerical value size sorting: s is S 1 、S 2 、S 3 。
S4: and selecting a fault drainage line with the highest fault frequency value in each fault partition as a typical representative, and if fault drainage line samples with equal fault frequencies exist, sequentially comparing the fault duration time and the value of the power-losing load for selection.
S5: the method comprises the steps of collecting wind speed, wind direction along a line, drainage line temperature, solar radiation intensity, ambient temperature, salt haze and relative humidity of a typical fault drainage line sample through a SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system of a sea island distribution line, and forming a historical environment data set.
S6: based on a historical environment data set, combining the wind speed and the wind direction along a typical fault drainage line sample, and solving the drainage line wind load failure probability of the island distribution line through an island drainage line wind load failure calculation formula and an extremum I-type probability distribution function. The specific contents are as follows:
61 According to the live operation of the island drainage line, improving a calculation formula of a wind load standard value of the overhead conductor of the power distribution network, and correlating the calculation formula with wind speed and wind direction along the line to obtain a calculation formula of the wind load of the island distribution line drainage line:
W x ＝αμ s μ z dL w v 2 sin 2 θ/1600
wherein alpha is a wind load span coefficient; v is wind speed; θ is the direction of the wind along the line, with its corresponding value in the historical environmental dataset; mu (mu) z Is the wind pressure height change coefficient; l (L) w Is a wind-force gear; mu (mu) s Is the wind load body type coefficient;
62 Setting specific parameters of the improved formula of the step 61) according to the actual condition of the island to obtain a final calculation formula of the wind load of the drainage line of the island distribution line;
63 Under island environment, the wind load value W of the drainage line is obtained x Then, using extremum I type probability distribution to determine wind load failure probability p of drainage wire f And (3) calculating:
in sigma x Is the wind load standard deviation; a is a scale parameter of extremum I type distribution; w (w) x Is wind load; u (u) x To design wind load; u is the position parameter of the extremum type I distribution.
S7: and combining the temperature of the drainage wire for collecting the typical fault drainage wire sample, and solving the temperature rise failure probability of the drainage wire of the island distribution line.
Further, the temperature rise failure probability of the drainage line of the island distribution line is obtained through an Arrhenius drainage line service life-temperature rise calculation method and a Weibull probability distribution function. The method comprises the following specific steps:
71 Based on Arrhenius drainage line life-temperature rise calculation method, the formula is as follows:
wherein L (θ) is a quantifiable average lifetime; θ y For the drain line temperature, the corresponding value is in the historical environmental dataset {; a and B are empirical constants;
72 According to the solving method of step 71) for L (theta), the Weibull probability distribution is adopted to solve the temperature rise failure probability p of the drainage line of the island distribution line w And (3) carrying out solving:
wherein t is the running time of the drainage wire; beta s Is a shape parameter.
S8: and carrying out weighted summation on the wind load failure probability of the drainage wire of the island distribution line and the temperature rise failure probability of the drainage wire of the island distribution line to obtain the operation failure probability of the drainage wire.
The failure probability p of wind load of drainage line of island distribution line f And probability of failure of temperature rise p w The weighted addition is carried out, the operation failure probability p of the drainage wire is obtained through calculation, and the double standard wind load is taken as the damage basis, when the wind load exceeds the double standard wind load, the drainage wire is damaged due to strong instantaneous damage; the calculation formula of the island distribution line drainage line operation failure probability p is as follows:
wherein w is x Is the actual wind load; w (w) d Is a standard wind load; k (k) f 、k w The wind load and the temperature rise weight coefficients are respectively.
S9: and (3) weighting the sunlight radiation intensity, the ambient temperature, the salt haze and the relative humidity of a typical fault drainage line sample by an entropy weighting method, solving a failure correction coefficient by a correction coefficient calculation method, and correcting the operation failure probability of the drainage line by multiplying the failure correction coefficient and the operation failure probability of the drainage line so as to obtain the comprehensive operation failure index of the drainage line of the island distribution line. The method comprises the following specific steps:
91 Obtaining the sunlight radiation intensity x by adopting an entropy weight method 4 Ambient temperature x 5 Salt haze x 6 And relative humidity x 7 Weights ω for four environmental variables in total j ，j＝1，2，3，4：
Wherein omega is j Is an entropy weight; e, e j Is the information entropy; m=4;
92 Intensity of solar radiation x 4 Ambient temperature x 5 Salt haze x 6 And relative humidity x 7 The values in the historical environmental dataset { X } form a matrix x= [ X ] 1 ,x 2 ,x 3 ,x 4 ]And constructing a corresponding weight matrix omega= [ omega ] 1 ,ω 2 ,ω 3 ,ω 4 ]The composite score benchmark is calculated as follows:
in which W is max 、W min Respectively obtaining a maximum value and a minimum value of a reference comprehensive score; x is x max,i 、x min,i The upper and lower bounds of the variable values are respectively; m=4;
93 Calculating a comprehensive fault score value):
94 Calculating a failure correction coefficient delta):
95 By multiplying the failure correction coefficient delta with the island distribution line drainage line operation failure probability p, correcting the island distribution line drainage line operation failure model to obtain U:
wherein w is x Is the actual wind load; w (w) d Is a standard wind load; p is p f Drainage line wind load loss for island distribution lineProbability of effect; p is p w And the probability of failure of temperature rise of a drainage wire of the island distribution line is increased.
S10: and taking the comprehensive operation failure index of the drainage line of the island distribution line as an operation failure evaluation basis of the drainage line of the island distribution line, and evaluating the operation state of the drainage line. Specifically:
judging according to the acquired comprehensive operation failure index U of the drainage line of the island distribution line, if the U is less than 30%, judging that the drainage line has good operation condition and cannot fail under the normal operation condition; if the U is more than or equal to 30% and less than 60%, judging that the operation condition of the drainage wire is general, and the drainage wire is not easy to fail under the normal operation condition; if 60% < U, judge that the drainage line running condition is relatively poor, very easily take place the operation failure condition.
Compared with the prior art, the island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method provided by the invention at least has the following beneficial effects:
1. according to the method, the influence of the island microclimate environment on faults of different degrees caused by failure of operation of the drainage line of the distribution line is fully considered, a KPCA-Kmeans method is used for clustering historical fault data sets, and three types of fault partitions with successively decreasing fault degrees are obtained by taking the fault frequency, fault duration time and sum value of power-losing loads of each area as criteria; and based on the fault frequency, a representative fault drainage line in each partition is obtained, so that the workload of calculation and evaluation is reduced, and the typical and accurate evaluation is ensured.
2. According to the actual operation condition of the drainage line of the distribution line in the island environment, the invention obtains the operation failure probability of the drainage line of the island by combining the wind load failure probability of the drainage line of the distribution line of the island with the temperature rise failure probability; the method is a reflection of the operation condition of the drainage line in the island environment, and has a good evaluation effect.
3. According to the invention, the failure coefficient is solved for the solar radiation intensity, the ambient temperature, the salt haze and the relative humidity, and the operation failure probability of the drainage line is corrected in a mode of multiplying the failure coefficient by the operation failure probability of the island drainage line, so that the comprehensive operation failure index of the island distribution line drainage line is obtained; the index is used as an evaluation basis, so that the evaluation accuracy can be effectively improved, and good benefits are obtained.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating failure of a drain line operation of a sea island distribution line in an embodiment;
fig. 2 is an evaluation schematic diagram of the drainage wire integrated operation failure index U in the embodiment.
Detailed Description
The invention will now be described in detail with reference to the drawings and specific examples. It will be apparent that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without making any inventive effort, shall fall within the scope of the present invention.
Examples
The invention relates to a failure evaluation method for the operation of a drainage line of an island distribution line, which comprises the steps of counting the failure frequency y of a failure drainage line sample of the island distribution line 1 Duration of failure y 2 Power loss load y 3 Forming a historical fault data set { Y }, clustering { Y } by using a KPCA-Kmeans method, primarily dividing to obtain 3 types of fault areas, and using each area Y 1 +y 2 +y 3 The numerical value of (3) is used as a criterion to obtain a fault partition S with the 3 types of fault degrees decreasing in sequence 1 、S 2 、S 3 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Taking y in each fault partition 1 The highest value fault drainage line is typically representative (if y is present 1 The identical fault drainage line samples are compared with y in sequence 2 、y 3 Is selected according to the numerical value of the current-carrying line, and the wind speed x of a typical fault current-carrying line sample set is acquired through a SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system of the island distribution line 1 Along wind direction x 2 Temperature x of drainage line 3 Intensity x of solar radiation 4 Ambient temperature x 5 Salt haze x 6 Relative humidity x 7 Constructing a historical environmental data set { X }; based on the historical environment data set { X }, combine X 1 、x 2 Wind load failure calculation formula and extremum I probability score through island drainage lineThe wind load operation failure probability p of the drainage line is obtained through a cloth function f The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Binding x 3 Solving the temperature rise failure probability p of the drainage wire by using an Arrhenius drainage wire life-temperature rise calculation formula and a Weibull probability distribution function w The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Will p f And p w Carrying out weighted summation to obtain the operation failure probability p of the drainage wire; pair x by entropy weight method 4 、x 5 、x 6 、x 7 Carrying out weight calculation, and solving a failure correction coefficient delta by using a correction coefficient calculation method; correcting the operation failure probability of the drainage line in a delta multiplied by p mode, and further obtaining a comprehensive operation failure index U of the drainage line of the island distribution line; taking U as an evaluation basis of operation failure of a drainage wire of the island distribution line, if U is less than 30%, the operation condition of the drainage wire is good, and the drainage wire cannot fail under the normal operation condition; if the U is more than or equal to 30% and less than 60%, the drainage wire has general running condition and is not easy to fail under the normal running condition; if 60% < U, the drainage wire operation condition is relatively poor, and the operation failure condition is very easy to occur.
The main principle of the island distribution line drainage line operation failure assessment method is as follows: 1. clustering by using a KPCA-Kmeans clustering method based on a historical fault data set { Y } formed by a fault frequency Y1, a fault duration Y2 and a power failure load Y3 of a fault drainage line, and using each region Y 1 +y 2 +y 3 The value of the number is used as a criterion to divide and obtain 3 types of fault partitions S with successively decreasing fault degrees 1 、S 2 、S 3 The scope of calculation is reduced, and drainage wire failure assessment is typical. 2. Starting from the angles of wind stress mechanical damage and corrosion temperature rise electrical damage of a drainage wire by a sea island typical strong wind speed and strong corrosion scene, and solving the wind load operation failure probability p of the drainage wire f And probability of failure of temperature rise p w And weighting and adding to obtain drainage line failure probability p. 3. In the process of solving island x 4 、x 5 、x 6 、x 7 On the basis of the weight of the drainage line, the comprehensive operation failure index U of the drainage line of the island distribution line is obtained by solving a correction coefficient delta and correcting the operation failure probability of the drainage line in a way of multiplying delta and p. 4. Evaluation of comprehensive operation failure index UStandard: if U is less than 30%, the drainage wire has good running condition and can not fail under the normal running condition; if the U is more than or equal to 30% and less than 60%, the drainage wire has general running condition and is not easy to fail under the normal running condition; if 60% < U, the drainage wire operation condition is relatively poor, and the operation failure condition is very easy to occur, and important attention is required.
The invention relates to a island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method, which specifically comprises the following steps:
step one, counting fault frequency y of island distribution line fault drainage line samples 1 Duration of failure y 2 Power loss load y 3 Constitutes the historical fault dataset Y.
Step two, setting the number of main components to be 2 in KPCA by using KPCA-Kmeans method, and performing dimension reduction treatment on { Y }, thereby obtaining a three-dimensional variable matrix [ Y ] 1 、y 2 、y 3 ]Dimension reduction to obtain a two-dimensional matrix z]. At this time, there are 2 variables in the two-dimensional matrix, which are named: main component 1 and main component 2. The specific implementation of KPCA dimension reduction comprises the following steps:
21 (Y) forming the historical failure data set { Y } into a high-dimensional matrix y= [ Y ] 1 ，y 2 ，y 3 ]And obtaining a high-dimensional characteristic image l through mapping phi i ，i＝1，2，3。
22 For l) i Solving a new target:
wherein w is i Is a projected hyperplane;λ i is->Is a characteristic value of (2); m=3.
23 Using a kernel sigmoid function to implement the mapping phi:
wherein, tan h is hyperbolic tangent function; j is i in the hyperplane w i Corresponding values, j=i=1, 2,3; β and μ are constants, taking β=3, μ=11.16.
24 Simplification of 22) the new target by the sigmoid function:
Kα ij ＝λ j α ij
wherein K is a kernel matrix corresponding to a sigmoid function, K ij ＝sigmoid(y i ,y j )，α ij Alpha, which corresponds to the hyperplane j for plane i, is numerically equal to alpha i Equal lambda j Numerically and lambda i Equal.
25 Matrix y= [ Y ] 1 ，y 2 ，y 3 ]Reducing to two dimensions to obtain a matrix z]The coordinates of the n (n=1, 2) th dimension are:
step three, obtaining a two-dimensional matrix [ z ] in dimension reduction]Then, the two-dimensional matrix [ z ] is divided by Kmeans]Clustering is carried out, and the fault drainage line sample set is primarily divided into 3 types of fault partitions. Further, in each region y 1 +y 2 +y 3 The numerical value of (3) is used as a criterion to obtain a fault partition S with the 3 types of fault degrees decreasing in sequence 1 、S 2 、S 3 . The specific clustering partition content comprises:
31 Setting the cluster number to 3, and randomly selecting an initial mean vector c, (c E [ z ]).
32 Through a distance calculation formula: d= |z '-c| and the distances between the vectors z' and c of other groups in the matrix [ z ] are obtained.
33 Setting the iteration number to 100, and continuously selecting a new mean vector c from the matrix [ z ] for iterative updating (namely, selecting a division result with the shortest calculation distance in each iteration). And after the iteration times are completed, obtaining the preliminarily divided 3 types of fault partitions according to the final fault drainage line sample clustering partition result.
34 At this time according to the failure frequency y of all failure drainage line sample sets in each partition 1 Duration of failure y 2 Numerically summing it y 1 +y 2 Sorting according to the numerical values to obtain 3 types of fault partitions with sequentially decreasing fault degrees: s is S 1 、S 2 、S 3 。
Step four, obtaining a fault partition S with 3 types of fault degrees decreasing in sequence through cluster division 1 、S 2 、S 3 And then, selecting a fault drainage line with highest fault frequency in each fault partition as a typical representation, and if fault drainage line samples with equal fault frequency exist, sequentially comparing and selecting according to the fault duration and the value of the power loss load, so that 3 typical fault drainage lines in 3 types of fault partitions can be finally obtained.
Step five, collecting wind speed x of a typical fault drainage line sample through a SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system of island distribution line 1 Along wind direction x 2 Temperature x of drainage line 3 Intensity x of solar radiation 4 Ambient temperature x 5 Salt haze x 6 Relative humidity x 7 Constitutes the historical environmental dataset { X }.
Taking the influence of the island strong wind speed environment on the drainage line as a basis of a historical environment data set { X }, taking the wind speed X1 of a fault drainage line sample and the wind direction X2 along the line, and solving the drainage line wind load failure probability p of the island distribution line through the island drainage line wind load failure calculation formula and the extremum I type probability distribution function f The method comprises the following specific steps:
61 Calculation formula of wind load standard value of overhead conductor of distribution network:
W x ＝αμ s dL w W o
in which W is x The standard value of the wind load of the wire; alpha is a wind load span coefficient; d is the diameter of the wire calculated; l (L) w Is a wind-force gear; mu (mu) s Is the wind load body type coefficient; w (W) o Is the standard value of the reference wind pressure.
62 According to the live operation of the island drainage line, improving 61) the calculation formula, and correlating the calculation formula with the wind speed and the wind direction along the line to obtain the island distribution line drainage line wind load calculation formula:
W x ＝αμ s μ z dL w v 2 sin 2 θ/1600
wherein v is wind speed, θ is wind direction along the line, and corresponding values thereof are in the historical environmental data set { X }; mu (mu) z Is the wind pressure height variation coefficient.
63 Setting 62) specific parameters of the improvement formula according to the actual island conditions: taking α=0.85, d=9.5 mm, l w ＝0.6，μ s ＝1.2，μ z =1.38. The final calculation formula of the wind load of the drainage line of the island distribution line is obtained:
W x ＝4.982904×10 -3 v 2 sin 2 θ
64 Under island environment, the wind load value W of the drainage line is obtained x Then, using extremum I type probability distribution to determine wind load failure probability p of drainage wire f And (3) calculating:
in sigma x Taking sigma as wind load standard deviation x =1; a is a scale parameter of extremum I type distribution, and a=2 is taken; w (w) x Is wind load; u (u) x To design wind load, take u x = 3.114; u is the position parameter of the extremum type I distribution, taking u=0.5.
Taking the influence of the island strong corrosion environment on the temperature rising operation of the drainage wire into consideration, and taking the temperature X of the drainage wire in the historical environment data set { X } 3 Data, and obtaining the temperature rise failure probability p of the drainage line of the island distribution line by using an Arrhenius drainage line life-temperature rise calculation method and a Weibull probability distribution function w The method comprises the following specific steps:
71 Using Arrhenius drainage wire life-temperature rise calculation method, the formula is as follows:
where L (θ) is the quantifiable average lifetime; θ y For the drain line temperature, the corresponding value is in the historical environmental dataset { X }; a and B are empirical constants, taking a=50, b=23.
72 According to 71) solving method for L (θ) using Weibull probability distribution pair p w And (3) carrying out solving:
wherein t is the running time of the drainage wire; beta s Taking beta as the shape parameter s ＝1.25。
Step eight, leading the drainage line wind load failure probability p of the island distribution line f And probability of failure of temperature rise p w And carrying out weighted addition, and calculating to obtain the operation failure probability p of the drainage wire. And the drainage wire is damaged by strong instantaneous damage when the wind load exceeds 2 times of the standard wind load by taking 2 times of the standard wind load as the damage basis. The island distribution line drainage line operation failure probability p is calculated as follows:
wherein w is x Is the actual wind load; w (w) d Is a standard wind load; k (k) f 、k w Respectively wind load and temperature rise weight coefficients; taking k according to the live operation of the island drainage line f ＝0.65，k w ＝0.35。
Step nine, the solar radiation intensity x is controlled by an entropy weight method 4 Ambient temperature x 5 Salt haze x 6 Relative humidity x 7 The weight is calculated, a correction coefficient delta is calculated by using a correction coefficient calculation method, the operation failure probability of the drainage line is corrected in a way of multiplying delta and p, and the comprehensive operation of the drainage line of the island distribution line is obtainedThe failure index U comprises the following specific steps:
91 Using entropy weight method to obtain solar radiation intensity x 4 Ambient temperature x 5 Salt haze x 6 Relative humidity x 7 Weights ω for a total of 4 environmental variables j (j＝1，2，3，4)：
Wherein omega is j Is an entropy weight; e, e j Is the information entropy; m=4.
92 Numerical values of solar radiation intensity, ambient temperature, salt haze, and relative humidity in the historical ambient dataset { X }, form a matrix x= [ X ] 1 ,x 2 ,x 3 ,x 4 ]And constructing a corresponding weight matrix omega= [ omega ] 1 ,ω 2 ,ω 3 ,ω 4 ]. Calculating a comprehensive scoring benchmark:
in which W is max 、W min Respectively obtaining a maximum value and a minimum value of a reference comprehensive score; x is x max,i 、x min,i The upper and lower bounds of the variable values are respectively; m=4.
93 Calculating a comprehensive fault score value):
94 Calculating a failure correction coefficient delta):
95 Correcting the island distribution line drainage line operation failure model through delta multiplied by p to obtain U:
step ten, taking U as a failure evaluation basis for operation of a drainage line of the island distribution line, and evaluating the operation state of the drainage line: if U is less than 30%, the drainage wire has good running condition and can not fail under the normal running condition; if the U is more than or equal to 30% and less than 60%, the drainage wire has general running condition and is not easy to fail under the normal running condition; if 60% < U, the drainage wire operation condition is relatively poor, and the operation failure condition is very easy to occur.
The invention fully considers the influence of island microclimate environment on faults of different degrees caused by failure of operation of a drainage line of a distribution line, uses a KPCA-Kmeans method to cluster a historical fault data set { Y }, and uses each region Y 1 +y 2 +y 3 The numerical value of (3) is used as a criterion to obtain a fault partition S with the 3 types of fault degrees decreasing in sequence 1 、S 2 、S 3 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the And the representative fault drainage lines in each partition are obtained based on the fault frequency y1, so that the workload of calculation and evaluation is reduced, and the typical and accurate evaluation is ensured.
While the invention has been described with reference to certain preferred embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and substitutions may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims. Therefore, the protection scope of the invention is subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (10)
1. The island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
1) Acquiring fault frequency, fault duration and power failure load of a island distribution line fault drainage line sample, and forming a historical fault data set by the three;
2) Performing dimension reduction processing on the historical fault data set to obtain a two-dimensional matrix of the historical fault data set;
3) Clustering a two-dimensional matrix of a historical fault data set, primarily dividing a fault drainage line sample to obtain three types of fault areas, and taking the sum of fault frequency, fault duration and power failure load of each area as a criterion to obtain three types of fault partitions with successively decreasing fault degrees;
4) Selecting a fault drainage line with the highest fault frequency value in each fault partition as a typical representation, and if fault drainage line samples with equal fault frequencies exist, sequentially comparing the fault duration time and the value of a power-losing load;
5) Collecting the wind speed, the wind direction along the line, the temperature of the drainage line, the solar radiation intensity, the ambient temperature, the salt haze and the relative humidity of a typical fault drainage line sample through a SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system of the island distribution line to form a historical environment data set;
6) Based on a historical environment data set, combining the wind speed and the wind direction along a typical fault drainage line sample, and solving the drainage line wind load failure probability of the island distribution line through a island drainage line wind load failure calculation formula and an extremum I-type probability distribution function;
7) Combining the temperature of the drainage wire for collecting a typical fault drainage wire sample, and solving the temperature rise failure probability of the drainage wire of the island distribution line;
8) Carrying out weighted summation on the wind load failure probability of the drainage wire of the island distribution line and the temperature rise failure probability of the drainage wire of the island distribution line to obtain the operation failure probability of the drainage wire;
9) The method comprises the steps of obtaining weight values of solar radiation intensity, ambient temperature, salt haze and relative humidity of a typical fault drainage line sample through an entropy weight method, solving a failure correction coefficient through a correction coefficient calculation method, correcting operation failure probability of a drainage line in a mode of multiplying the failure correction coefficient by operation failure probability of the drainage line, and further obtaining comprehensive operation failure indexes of the drainage line of the island distribution line;
10 Taking the comprehensive operation failure index of the drainage line of the island distribution line as the operation failure evaluation basis of the drainage line of the island distribution line, and evaluating the operation state of the drainage line.
2. The island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2), a KPCA-Kmeans method is adopted to perform dimension reduction processing on a historical failure data set.
3. The island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method according to claim 2, wherein the specific step of performing the dimension reduction processing on the historical fault data set by adopting the KPCA-Kmeans method comprises the following steps:
21 (Y) forming the historical failure data set { Y } into a high-dimensional matrix y= [ Y ] 1 ，y 2 ，y 3 ]，y 1 ，y 2 ，y 3 The fault frequency, the fault duration and the power failure load of the island distribution line fault drainage line sample are respectively obtained, and a high-dimensional characteristic image l is obtained through mapping phi i ，i＝1，2，3；
22 For l) i Solving the new objective as follows:
wherein w is i Is a projected hyperplane;λ i is->Is a characteristic value of (2); m=3;
23 Using a kernel sigmoid function to implement the mapping phi:
wherein, tan h is hyperbolic tangent function; j is i in the hyperplane w i Corresponding values, j=i=1,2,3; β and μ are constants, taking β=3, μ=11.16;
24 Simplification of 22) the new target by the sigmoid function:
Kα ij ＝λ j α ij
wherein K is a kernel matrix corresponding to a sigmoid function, K ij ＝sigmoid(y i ,y j )，α ij Alpha, which corresponds to the hyperplane j for plane i, is numerically equal to alpha i Equal lambda j Numerically and lambda i Equal;
25 Matrix y= [ Y ] 1 ，y 2 ，y 3 ]Reducing to two dimensions to obtain a matrix z]The coordinates of the n (n=1, 2) th dimension are:
4. the island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method according to claim 3, wherein the specific contents of step 3) are as follows:
31 Setting the cluster number as 3, and randomly selecting an initial mean vector c, (c E [ z ]);
32 Through a distance calculation formula: d is z '-c, and the distances between the vectors z' and c of other groups in the matrix [ z ] are calculated;
33 Setting iteration times, continuously selecting a new mean value vector c from the matrix [ z ] to carry out iteration updating, and obtaining three types of preliminarily divided fault partitions according to a final fault drainage line sample clustering partition result after the iteration times are finished;
34 At this time according to the failure frequency y of all failure drainage line sample sets in each failure partition 1 And failure duration y 2 Numerically summing it y 1 +y 2 Three types of fault partitions with sequentially decreasing fault degrees are obtained according to the numerical value size sorting: s is S 1 、S 2 、S 3 。
5. The island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the specific contents of the step 6) are as follows:
61 According to the live operation of the island drainage line, improving a calculation formula of a wind load standard value of the overhead conductor of the power distribution network, and correlating the calculation formula with wind speed and wind direction along the line to obtain a calculation formula of the wind load of the island distribution line drainage line:
W x ＝αμ s μ z dL w v 2 sin 2 θ/1600
wherein alpha is a wind load span coefficient; v is wind speed; θ is the direction of the wind along the line, with its corresponding value in the historical environmental dataset; mu (mu) z Is the wind pressure height change coefficient; l (L) w Is a wind-force gear; mu (mu) s Is the wind load body type coefficient;
62 Setting specific parameters of the improved formula of the step 61) according to the actual condition of the island to obtain a final calculation formula of the wind load of the drainage line of the island distribution line;
63 Under island environment, the wind load value W of the drainage line is obtained x Then, using extremum I type probability distribution to determine wind load failure probability p of drainage wire f And (3) calculating:
in sigma x Is the wind load standard deviation; a is a scale parameter of extremum I type distribution; w (w) x Is wind load; u (u) x To design wind load; u is the position parameter of the extremum type I distribution.
6. The island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 7), the island distribution line drainage line temperature rise failure probability is obtained through an Arrhenius drainage line life-temperature rise calculation method and a Weibull probability distribution function.
7. The island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method according to claim 6, wherein the specific content of the island distribution line drainage line temperature rise failure probability is obtained through an Arrhenius drainage line life-temperature rise calculation method and a Weibull probability distribution function:
71 Based on Arrhenius drainage line life-temperature rise calculation method, the formula is as follows:
wherein L (θ) is a quantifiable average lifetime; θ y For the drain line temperature, the corresponding value is in the historical environmental dataset {; a and B are empirical constants;
72 According to the solving method of step 71) for L (theta), the Weibull probability distribution is adopted to solve the temperature rise failure probability p of the drainage line of the island distribution line w And (3) carrying out solving:
wherein t is the running time of the drainage wire; beta s Is a shape parameter.
8. The island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the specific contents of the step 8) are as follows:
the failure probability p of wind load of drainage line of island distribution line f And probability of failure of temperature rise p w The weighted addition is carried out, the operation failure probability p of the drainage wire is obtained through calculation, and the double standard wind load is taken as the damage basis, when the wind load exceeds the double standard wind load, the drainage wire is damaged due to strong instantaneous damage; the calculation formula of the island distribution line drainage line operation failure probability p is as follows:
in the method, in the process of the invention,w x is the actual wind load; w (w) d Is a standard wind load; k (k) f 、k w The wind load and the temperature rise weight coefficients are respectively.
9. The island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 9), the specific step of obtaining an island distribution line drainage line integrated operation failure index comprises:
91 Obtaining the sunlight radiation intensity x by adopting an entropy weight method 4 Ambient temperature x 5 Salt haze x 6 And relative humidity x 7 Weights ω for four environmental variables in total j ，j＝1，2，3，4：
Wherein omega is j Is an entropy weight; e, e j Is the information entropy; m=4;
92 Intensity of solar radiation x 4 Ambient temperature x 5 Salt haze x 6 And relative humidity x 7 The values in the historical environmental dataset { X } form a matrix x= [ X ] 1 ,x 2 ,x 3 ,x 4 ]And constructing a corresponding weight matrix omega= [ omega ] 1 ,ω 2 ,ω 3 ,ω 4 ]The composite score benchmark is calculated as follows:
in which W is max 、W min Respectively obtaining a maximum value and a minimum value of a reference comprehensive score; x is x max,i 、x min,i The upper and lower bounds of the variable values are respectively; m=4;
93 Calculating the comprehensive causeBarrier score value:
94 Calculating a failure correction coefficient delta):
95 By multiplying the failure correction coefficient delta with the island distribution line drainage line operation failure probability p, correcting the island distribution line drainage line operation failure model to obtain U:
wherein w is x Is the actual wind load; w (w) d Is a standard wind load; p is p f The failure probability of wind load of the drainage line of the island distribution line is increased; p is p w And the probability of failure of temperature rise of a drainage wire of the island distribution line is increased.
10. The island distribution line drainage line operation failure evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the specific contents of the step 10) are:
judging according to the acquired comprehensive operation failure index U of the drainage line of the island distribution line, if the U is less than 30%, judging that the drainage line has good operation condition and cannot fail under the normal operation condition; if the U is more than or equal to 30% and less than 60%, judging that the operation condition of the drainage wire is general, and the drainage wire is not easy to fail under the normal operation condition; if 60% < U, judge that the drainage line running condition is poor, very easily take place the operation failure condition.
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Application publication date: 20211105 Assignee: SHANGHAI HEZE ELECTRIC POWER ENGINEERING DESIGN AND CONSULTING Co.,Ltd. Assignor: Shanghai University of Electric Power Contract record no.: X2024310000016 Denomination of invention: A method for evaluating the operational failure of drainage lines in island distribution lines Granted publication date: 20231128 License type: Common License Record date: 20240130 |