CN113516577A - Novel method for identifying regional persistent extremely high temperature event - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a novel method for identifying a regional persistent extremely high temperature event, which relates to the technical field of regional persistent extremely high temperature event identification, in particular to a novel method for identifying a regional persistent extremely high temperature event, and comprises the following steps: s1, selecting a research time interval according to the monthly distribution of the climate average high-temperature days; s2, giving out relative threshold values of high-temperature identification of all stations in the research area; s3, calculating the percentage of the stations exceeding the temperature threshold in the area to the total stations day by day; s4, whether the event is a continuous high-temperature event is judged. The method can effectively identify the continuous extreme high-temperature event in the south China area, has certain universality for other areas, and can be used for analyzing the long-term change of the high-temperature event by the characteristics of the identified intensity, area, duration and the like.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of identification of regional persistent extremely high temperature events, in particular to a novel method for identifying regional persistent extremely high temperature events.
Background
In the context of global warming, extreme high temperature events are frequent, and their intensity tends to increase significantly, which is a typical representative of extreme weather and climate events. The method has the advantages that the method identifies the regional persistent extremely high temperature event, extracts the characteristic indexes for analyzing the long-term change of the regional persistent extremely high temperature event, and has important significance for disaster prevention and reduction. In the past, for the analysis of the extremely high temperature event, a fixed threshold is mostly adopted, and the research on the characteristics of the extremely high temperature event, such as the number of days at high temperature, the strength at high temperature and the like, is carried out only around a single index. However, the extreme high-temperature event has multiple characteristic parameters such as strength, area, duration and the like, and the research is not comprehensive from a single aspect.
The identification method of the extreme high-temperature event is single, has certain defects and sidedness, causes the judgment of the high-temperature event, is easy to generate deviation, and cannot comprehensively describe the event.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a novel method for identifying the regional persistent extremely high temperature event, which solves the problems that the judgment of the high temperature event is easy to generate deviation and the event cannot be comprehensively described due to the single identification method of the extremely high temperature event, certain defects and one-sidedness in the background technology.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention is realized by the following technical scheme: a novel method of area-persistent extreme high temperature event identification, comprising the steps of:
s1, selecting a research time interval according to the monthly distribution of the climate average high-temperature days;
s2, giving out relative threshold values of high-temperature identification of all stations in the research area;
s3, calculating the percentage of the stations exceeding the temperature threshold in the area to the total stations day by day;
s4, judging whether the event is a continuous high-temperature event;
s5, providing characteristic indexes of the continuous high-temperature events in the analysis area;
and S6, constructing an extreme high-temperature comprehensive index and grading the high-temperature events.
Optionally, in the step S1, in the step S1, according to the long-term history data, the monthly distribution of the climate average state high temperature days is counted, and the month with frequent high temperature is selected as the research period of the new method of the present invention.
Optionally, in step S2, an absolute threshold of a maximum daily temperature of 35 ° C is usually used as a criterion for determining high temperature, but a relative threshold is more advantageous, and a 90 th percentile temperature value of each weather station in the area is calculated according to a long-term maximum daily temperature ascending sequence in a study period, and is used as a relative temperature threshold for determining a high temperature event.
Optionally, in step S3, the percentage of the stations in the area that exceed the temperature threshold to the total stations is calculated day by day, and if at least a certain number of stations in the whole area of a certain day exceed the temperature threshold, it is determined that a high temperature event occurs in the area of the certain day.
Optionally, in step S4, referring to the method for determining a single-day regional high-temperature event in S3, if the front and rear days both satisfy the above criteria, the event is considered to be continuous, and if the number of continuous days of one event reaches 5 days, the event is identified as a continuous event.
Optionally, in step S5, 5 feature indexes may be selected for analyzing the feature of the regional persistent high-temperature event, where the feature indexes are respectively the intensity Q, the maximum intensity Qmax, the influence area a, the maximum influence area Amax, and the duration D of the event, and a specific calculation method of each index is as follows:
s501, event intensity Q: in a single regional continuous high-temperature event, the average value of the daily intensity in the event duration time, wherein the daily intensity is the ratio of the sum of the station air temperatures meeting the conditions to the station number meeting the conditions;
s502, event maximum intensity Qmax: maximum daily intensity for a single regional persistent high temperature event for the duration of the event;
s503, event influence area A: average value of daily high temperature influence range in single regional continuous high temperature event within event duration;
s504, maximum event influence area Amax: in a single regional persistent high temperature event, the maximum value of the daily high temperature influence range within the event duration;
s505, event duration D: the number of days of maintenance of an event in a single regional persistent hyperthermia event.
Optionally, in step S6, based on the event intensity Q, the event area of influence a, and the event duration D, an extreme high temperature comprehensive index Z = qxaxd, which represents the spatial and temporal accumulation of the high temperature intensity, and if the intensity is stronger, the area is wider, and the duration is longer, the comprehensive intensity index is larger, and the index can reflect the comprehensive influence of the high temperature event, and the index is larger, the comprehensive influence of the event is larger, and based on the frequency distribution of the comprehensive index, a method for dividing 4 high temperature levels, such as weak, medium, strong, and extreme strong, can be provided.
The invention provides a novel method for identifying a regional persistent extremely high-temperature event, which has the following beneficial effects:
1. the invention designs a novel method for identifying the regional persistent extreme high-temperature event, which considers the mass-sending property of the high-temperature event in the research region and the persistence of the high-temperature event at the same time, and is very effective in identifying the regional persistent high-temperature event.
2. The identification method can carry out comprehensive analysis of high-temperature characteristics by means of a plurality of characteristic indexes, discuss long-term change and trend of the high-temperature characteristics from multiple angles such as high-temperature strength, area, maintenance time and the like, construct a comprehensive strength index and more comprehensively express the long-term change characteristics of high-temperature events.
3. According to the frequency distribution of the comprehensive index, the invention scientifically provides the basis for dividing the high-temperature grade, divides the high-temperature events by 4 grades such as weak, medium, strong and extremely strong, and has important significance for further refining the characteristic research of the high-temperature events.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a monthly distribution diagram of the average high temperature days in south China for 1991 and 2020;
FIG. 2 is a graph of the long term variation of the intensity, area of impact, duration and composite index of the high temperature event and its trend in accordance with the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a graph showing the frequency distribution of the high temperature events of different levels according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments.
Referring to fig. 1 and fig. 2, the present invention provides a technical solution: a novel method of area-persistent extreme high temperature event identification, comprising the steps of:
s1, selecting a research time interval according to the monthly distribution of the climate average high-temperature days;
s2, giving out relative threshold values of high-temperature identification of all stations in the research area;
s3, calculating the percentage of the stations exceeding the temperature threshold in the area to the total stations day by day;
s4, judging whether the event is a continuous high-temperature event;
s5, providing characteristic indexes of the continuous high-temperature events in the analysis area;
and S6, constructing an extreme high-temperature comprehensive index and grading the high-temperature events.
In the invention, in step S1, in step S1, according to long-term historical data, monthly distribution of climate average state high-temperature days is counted (figure 1), a month with frequent high temperature is selected as a research time period of the novel method, and by taking a south China area as an example, the statistical result shows that the average number of high-temperature days in 5-9 months reaches more than 15 days, and the high temperature is frequently generated in the middle of the period, so 5-9 months are selected as the research time period.
In the invention, in step S2, an absolute threshold of 35 ℃ of the day-by-day maximum temperature is usually used as a high temperature judgment standard, but the relative threshold is more advantageous, and the 90 th percentile temperature value of each meteorological station in the area can be calculated according to the day-by-day long-term maximum temperature ascending sequence in the study period and used as the relative temperature threshold for judging the high temperature event.
In the invention, in step S3, the percentage of the stations in the area exceeding the temperature threshold to the total stations is calculated day by day, and at least a certain number of stations in the whole area of a certain day exceed the temperature threshold, then the high temperature event in the area is considered to have occurred in the day, and taking south china area (82 total stations) as an example, when the high temperature occurs in 5-9 months, 22 stations in the south china area on average in one day meet the high temperature standard, which is equivalent to the percentage threshold of 26% (22/82).
In the present invention, in step S4, referring to the method for determining a single-day regional high-temperature event in S3, when both the front and rear days satisfy the above criteria, the event is considered to be continuous, and when the number of continuous days of one event reaches 5 days, the event is identified as a continuous event. The invention aims at the area of south China to identify, and finds that in nearly 30 years (1991-2020), 113 area-persistent extremely high-temperature events occur in the area in total.
In the present invention, in step S5, 5 feature indexes can be selected for analyzing the feature of the regional persistent high-temperature event, which are the intensity Q, the maximum intensity Qmax, the area of influence a, the maximum area of influence Amax, and the duration D of the event, respectively, and the specific calculation method of each index is as follows:
s501, event intensity Q: mean daily intensity for a single regional persistent hyperthermia event for the duration of the event. Wherein the daily intensity is the ratio of the sum of the station air temperatures meeting the conditions to the station number meeting the conditions;
s502, event maximum intensity Qmax: maximum daily intensity for a single regional persistent high temperature event for the duration of the event;
s503, event influence area A: average value of daily high temperature influence range in single regional continuous high temperature event within event duration;
s504, maximum event influence area Amax: in a single regional persistent high temperature event, the maximum value of the daily high temperature influence range within the event duration;
s505, event duration D: the number of days of maintenance of an event in a single regional persistent hyperthermia event.
Based on the characteristic factors, long-term change analysis of high-temperature events can be carried out; selecting the event intensity Q, the event influence area A and the event duration D, drawing the long-term change and the trend chart (fig. 2 a-c) of each characteristic of the high-temperature event in the south China area, and obtaining the following conclusion: the climate averages for event intensity, area of impact and duration were 35.06 ℃, 31.57 kilo-square kilometers and 9.07 days, respectively. The three characteristic factors have an insignificant ascending trend overall, and the growth rates are respectively 0.03 +/-0.04 ℃ per 10a, 1.04 +/-0.75 kilo square kilometer per 10a and 0.91 +/-0.60 days per 10 a.
In the present invention, in step S6, an extreme high temperature comprehensive index Z = qxaxd is constructed based on the event intensity Q, the event influence area a, and the event duration D, the index representing the spatial and temporal accumulation of the high temperature intensity, and if the intensity is stronger, the area is wider, and the duration is longer, the comprehensive intensity index is larger, and the index can represent the comprehensive influence of the high temperature event, and the larger the index is, the larger the comprehensive influence of the event is.
The comprehensive index can better show the long-term change characteristics of the comprehensive influence of the high-temperature events; as shown in FIG. 2d, the overall integrated strength index showed a significant upward trend (0.19. + -. 0.13/10 a) in the last 30 years; the maximum value appears in 2007, and the piecewise trend analysis shows that the trend of ascending first and then descending exists.
Example II
Referring to fig. 1 and 3, the present invention provides a technical solution: a novel method of area-persistent extreme high temperature event identification, comprising the steps of:
s1, selecting a research time interval according to the monthly distribution of the climate average high-temperature days;
s2, giving out relative threshold values of high-temperature identification of all stations in the research area;
s3, calculating the percentage of the stations exceeding the temperature threshold in the area to the total stations day by day;
s4, judging whether the event is a continuous high-temperature event;
s5, providing characteristic indexes of the continuous high-temperature events in the analysis area;
and S6, constructing an extreme high-temperature comprehensive index and grading the high-temperature events.
In the invention, in step S1, in step S1, according to long-term historical data, monthly distribution of climate average state high-temperature days is counted (figure 1), a month with frequent high temperature is selected as a research time period of the novel method, and by taking a south China area as an example, the statistical result shows that the average number of high-temperature days in 5-9 months reaches more than 15 days, and the high temperature is frequently generated in the middle of the period, so 5-9 months are selected as the research time period.
In the invention, in step S2, an absolute threshold of 35 ℃ of the day-by-day maximum temperature is usually used as a high temperature judgment standard, but a relative threshold is more advantageous, and a 90 th percentile temperature value of each meteorological station in the area is calculated according to a day-by-day long-term maximum temperature ascending sequence in a research period and is used as a relative temperature threshold for judging a high temperature event.
In the present invention, in step S3, the percentage of stations in the area exceeding the temperature threshold to the total number of stations is calculated day by day, and at least a certain number of stations in the whole area of a certain day exceed the temperature threshold, then it is considered that a regional high temperature event has occurred in that day, and when a high temperature occurs in 5-9 months, the average number of stations in south china that are 22 a day satisfy the high temperature standard, which is equivalent to the percentage threshold of 26% (22/82).
In the invention, in step S4, referring to the method for determining a single-day regional high-temperature event in S3, when the front and back days both meet the above criteria, the event is considered to be continuous, and when the duration days of one event reaches 5 days, the event is identified as a persistent event, and the south china region is identified, and it is found that about 30 years (1991-2020), 113 regional persistent extreme high-temperature events occur in the region altogether.
In the present invention, in step S5, 5 feature indexes can be selected for analyzing the feature of the regional persistent high-temperature event, which are the intensity Q, the maximum intensity Qmax, the area of influence a, the maximum area of influence Amax, and the duration D of the event, respectively, and the specific calculation method of each index is as follows:
s501, event intensity Q: mean daily intensity for a single regional persistent hyperthermia event for the duration of the event. Wherein the daily intensity is the ratio of the sum of the station air temperatures meeting the conditions to the station number meeting the conditions;
s502, event maximum intensity Qmax: maximum daily intensity for a single regional persistent high temperature event for the duration of the event;
s503, event influence area A: average value of daily high temperature influence range in single regional continuous high temperature event within event duration;
s504, maximum event influence area Amax: in a single regional persistent high temperature event, the maximum value of the daily high temperature influence range within the event duration;
s505, event duration D: the number of days of maintenance of an event in a single regional persistent hyperthermia event.
In the present invention, in step S6, an extreme high temperature comprehensive index Z = qxaxd is constructed based on the event intensity Q, the event influence area a, and the event duration D, the index representing the spatial and temporal accumulation of the high temperature intensity, and if the intensity is stronger, the area is wider, and the duration is longer, the comprehensive intensity index is larger, and the index can represent the comprehensive influence of the high temperature event, and the larger the index is, the larger the comprehensive influence of the event is.
The invention also provides a dividing method of 4 high temperature grades such as weak, medium, strong and extremely strong according to the frequency distribution of the comprehensive index (figure 3); the region of south China in 1991-2020 has 113 times of regional persistent high-temperature events, the comprehensive index of each event is calculated, the frequency distribution of the comprehensive index is given, the occurrence probability of the four levels of weak, medium, strong and extremely strong high-temperature events is determined as 20%, 40%, 30% and 10%, and Z value intervals corresponding to all high-temperature levels are inversely calculated; taking 113 events in south China as an example, when the comprehensive index Z is in four intervals of-1.03 to-0.70, -0.70 to-0.11, -0.11 to 1.40 and 1.40 to 5.19, the occurrence probability of the high-temperature event just corresponds to 20 percent (23/113), 40 percent (45/113), 30 percent (33/113) and 10 percent (12/113), and the corresponding interval can be directly searched according to the Z value to determine the grade of the high-temperature event.
According to the comprehensive strength index, the invention also provides a ranking table 1 of sustained high-temperature events in the region of the ten-year-old southern China in 1991:
TABLE 11991 SUMMARY OF PERIODICATED HIGH-TEMPERATURE EVENTS IN THE decade
The characteristics of start-stop time, event intensity, influence area and the like of ten extremely strong high-temperature events are shown in the table; for example, in the extremely high temperature event of 7 th to 8 th to 9 th in 2007, the comprehensive strength index is as high as 5.19, the average strength of the event is 35.52 ℃, the event influence area is 38.64 kilo-square kilometers, and the event duration is 34 d.
The above description is only for the preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art should be able to cover the technical scope of the present invention and the equivalent alternatives or modifications according to the technical solution and the inventive concept of the present invention within the technical scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. A novel method of area-persistent extreme high temperature event identification, comprising the steps of:
s1, selecting a research time interval according to the monthly distribution of the climate average high-temperature days;
s2, giving out relative threshold values of high-temperature identification of all stations in the research area;
s3, calculating the percentage of the stations exceeding the temperature threshold in the area to the total stations day by day;
s4, judging whether the event is a continuous high-temperature event;
s5, providing characteristic indexes of the continuous high-temperature events in the analysis area;
and S6, constructing an extreme high-temperature comprehensive index and grading the high-temperature events.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: in step S1, according to the long-term historical data, the monthly distribution of the climate average high temperature days is counted, and the months with frequent high temperature are selected as the research period of the novel method of the present invention.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the method comprises the following steps: in step S2, an absolute threshold of 35 ° of the maximum temperature day by day is usually used as a criterion for determining high temperature, but a relative threshold is more advantageous, and a 90 th percentile temperature value of each weather station in the area is calculated according to a long-term maximum temperature ascending sequence day by day in the study period, and is used as a relative temperature threshold for determining high temperature events.
4. A new method for area-persistent extreme high temperature event identification according to claim 3, characterized in that: in step S3, the percentage of the stations in the area exceeding the temperature threshold to the total stations is calculated day by day, and if at least a certain number of stations in the whole area of a certain day exceed the temperature threshold, it is determined that a high temperature event occurs in the area of the certain day.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the method comprises the following steps: in step S4, referring to the method for determining a single-day regional high-temperature event in S3, if the front and rear days both satisfy the above criteria, the event is considered to be continuous, and if the number of days for which one event lasts reaches 5 days, the event is identified as a persistent event.
6. The novel method for identifying region-persistent extreme high-temperature events according to claim 5, wherein in step S5, 5 feature indicators can be selected for analyzing the features of the region-persistent high-temperature events, which are the intensity Q, the maximum intensity Qmax, the area of influence a, the maximum area of influence Amax, and the duration D of the event, and the specific calculation method of each indicator is as follows:
s501, event intensity Q: in a single regional continuous high-temperature event, the average value of the daily intensity in the event duration time, wherein the daily intensity is the ratio of the sum of the station air temperatures meeting the conditions to the station number meeting the conditions;
s502, event maximum intensity Qmax: maximum daily intensity for a single regional persistent high temperature event for the duration of the event;
s503, event influence area A: average value of daily high temperature influence range in single regional continuous high temperature event within event duration;
s504, maximum event influence area Amax: in a single regional persistent high temperature event, the maximum value of the daily high temperature influence range within the event duration;
s505, event duration D: the number of days of maintenance of an event in a single regional persistent hyperthermia event.
7. The novel method for area-persistent extreme high-temperature event identification according to claim 6, wherein in step S6, based on the event intensity Q, the event-affected area a and the event duration D, an extreme high-temperature comprehensive index Z = qxaxd is constructed, which indicates the spatial and temporal accumulation of high-temperature intensity, and if the intensity is stronger, the area is wider, and the duration is longer, the comprehensive intensity index is larger.
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