CN113505969A - Electric power market operation monitoring index system under spot market environment - Google Patents

Electric power market operation monitoring index system under spot market environment Download PDF

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CN113505969A
CN113505969A CN202110626770.7A CN202110626770A CN113505969A CN 113505969 A CN113505969 A CN 113505969A CN 202110626770 A CN202110626770 A CN 202110626770A CN 113505969 A CN113505969 A CN 113505969A
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金骆松
刘强
何洁
黄恒孜
俞静
吴晶
杨曦
牛东晓
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ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER TRADE CENTER Co.,Ltd.
Zhejiang Huayun Information Technology Co Ltd
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North China Electric Power University
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Abstract

The invention provides an electric power market operation monitoring index system in a spot market environment, belongs to the field of electric power markets, and solves the problem that the existing electric power market operation monitoring index system in the spot market environment does not exist at present. The electric power market operation monitoring index system under the spot market environment comprises a market structure condition monitoring index, a market operation condition monitoring index and a market performance condition monitoring index; the market structure condition monitoring indexes comprise market main body monitoring indexes, supply and demand structure monitoring indexes and power grid structure monitoring indexes; the market operation condition monitoring indexes comprise market transaction monitoring indexes and market competition monitoring indexes; the market performance monitoring indexes comprise economic performance monitoring indexes, social performance monitoring indexes, market risk monitoring indexes, clean energy development performance monitoring indexes and transaction institution service performance indexes.

Description

Electric power market operation monitoring index system under spot market environment
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of electric power markets, and particularly relates to an electric power market operation monitoring index system in a spot market environment.
Background
With the increasing abundance of varieties and quantity of electric power transactions, how to evaluate whether market composition is balanced and reasonable, whether fair competition can be promoted, whether market transaction is active, whether market competition is sufficient, whether a market mechanism is effective, whether resource optimization configuration and energy conservation and emission reduction can be promoted is a problem of close attention of each market subject.
Mature electric power market evaluation index systems are established in the United states and Singapore at present, but no electric power market operation monitoring index system in the spot market environment is provided in China at present.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the problems in the prior art and provides an electric power market operation monitoring index system in a spot market environment.
The purpose of the invention can be realized by the following technical scheme: the electric power market operation monitoring index system under the spot market environment comprises a market structure condition monitoring index, a market operation condition monitoring index and a market performance condition monitoring index;
the market structure condition monitoring indexes comprise market main body monitoring indexes, supply and demand structure monitoring indexes and power grid structure monitoring indexes;
the market operation condition monitoring indexes comprise market transaction monitoring indexes and market competition monitoring indexes;
the market performance monitoring indexes comprise economic performance monitoring indexes, social performance monitoring indexes, market risk monitoring indexes, clean energy development performance monitoring indexes and transaction institution service performance indexes.
In the electric power market operation monitoring index system under the spot market environment, the market main body monitoring index comprises a maximum supplier residual supply rate and a demand side CR4 index; the supply and demand structure monitoring indexes comprise energy diversity indexes and power supply and demand balance indexes; the power grid structure monitoring indexes comprise transmission blocking indexes and frequency modulation capacity richness.
In the electric power market operation monitoring index system under the spot market environment, the market transaction monitoring index comprises the proportion of the user switching electricity vendors and the electricity consumption transaction times; the market race monitoring indicators include a supply-side HHI index and a demand-side HHI index.
In the electric power market operation monitoring index system under the spot market environment, the economic performance monitoring index comprises an average electricity purchasing cost saving rate, correlation between electricity price and supply and demand conditions and a lenr index; the social performance monitoring indexes comprise average electric carbon emission, average coal consumption change rate and trans-provincial and trans-regional trading proportion; the market risk monitoring indicators include price volatility indicators; the clean energy development performance monitoring indexes comprise renewable energy abandonment rate, renewable energy electric quantity permeability and non-water renewable energy electric quantity permeability; the service performance indexes of the trading mechanism comprise trading result accuracy, settlement voucher accuracy, main body registration average time consumption and settlement average period.
In the above electric power market operation monitoring index system in the spot market environment, the market structure condition monitoring index calculation formula is as follows:
market structure case ═ maximum supplier remaining supply rate × 50% + demand side CR4 index × 50% + -.) × 40% + (energy diversity index × 50% + power supply and demand balance index × 50%) × 40% + (transmission congestion index × 50% + fm capacity abundance × 50%) × 20%.
In the above electric power market operation monitoring index system in the spot market environment, the market operation condition monitoring index calculation formula is as follows:
market operation condition ═ 50% + degree electricity transaction times × 50%, (supply-side HHI index × 50% + demand-side HHI index × 50%) × 50% + (user-switched electricity vendor ratio × 50% + degree electricity transaction times × 50%).
In the above electric power market operation monitoring index system in the spot market environment, the market performance monitoring index calculation formula is as follows: the market performance ═ is (average electricity purchase cost saving rate × 33% + electricity price and supply and demand correlation × 33% + lenr index × 33%) × 30% + (average electricity carbon emission × 33% + average coal consumption change rate × 33% + trans-provincial trans-regional trading ratio × 33%) × 25% + price volatility × 15% + (renewable energy curtailment rate × 33% + renewable energy electricity consumption permeability × 33% + non-aqueous renewable energy electricity consumption permeability × 33%) × 10% + (trade result accuracy × 25% + accounting voucher accuracy × 25% + main body registration average time consumption × 25% + accounting average period × 25% + accounting + 20%).
In the power market operation monitoring index system under the spot market environment, the available power generation capacity (or power generation capacity) of the power generator i is qiThe maximum supplier remaining supply rate RSImaxThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000021
in the formula, the available power generation capacity or the generated energy of the power generator with the largest market share is obtained, N is the number of the power generators and is the highest load or the electric quantity demand of market users in an evaluation period;
the calculation formula of the demand side CR4 index is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000022
in the formula, smax,iThe market share, Q, of the ith household demand side main body is ranked from large to small according to the total settlement electric quantity of the user or the self electric quantity in the evaluation periodiAgent or self-consumption of electricity, Q, for the ith household demand side subjectMaking a businessThe total electric quantity of all the demand side main bodies;
the energy diversity index FDI has the following calculation formula:
Figure BDA0003101603920000031
in the formula, siMarket share calculated by reduced installed capacity for the ith type of energy entering the market and participating in marketization;
let QNeed maxMax { highest aligned load in the current year to the current month, highest aligned load in the last year }, QSupply maxIs QNeed maxThe power supply and demand balance index calculation formula corresponds to the highest available power generation capacity of the month as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000032
the transmission blocking index is the sum of the blocking power prices of all the blocking sections;
and the frequency modulation capacity richness margin is (total reported frequency modulation capacity-frequency modulation actual demand capacity)/frequency modulation actual demand.
In the above electric power market operation monitoring index system in the spot market environment, the user switching electricity vendor proportion σ calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000033
in the formula of UChangeable pipeFor changing the number of users of electricity vendors, UMaking a businessThe number of users participating in the transaction at the end of the last year;
let QGeneral assemblyFor total trading electric quantity, Q, of wholesale market1The calculation formula of the electricity consumption transaction times K for the total transaction electricity quantity of the first-class market is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000034
in the formula, QTotal, tTotal trading electric quantity Q of first-level market and second-level market with target time t1,tThe first-level market trading electric quantity with the target time of t;
the supply-side HHI index calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000035
in the formula, si10000 is an amplification index value, which is the market share of the marketized traffic electric quantity of the ith power generation group;
the demand side HHI index calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000036
in the formula, si10000 is an amplification index value, which is the market share of the marketized trading power of the ith demand side subject.
In the power market operation monitoring index system under the spot market environment, social cost is saved by averaging powerAre all made ofThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000041
in the formula, QiIs the actual on-line market electricity quantity, Q, of the unit iBy using＝∑QiIs the sum of actual power consumption of users, pi onFor the verification of unit i, the price of electricity for network access pFa city of IMaking a transaction price for the market of the unit i; wherein p isFa city of IThe ratio of the total yield of the unit to the total traffic capacity can be calculated;
the monthly index II of the average electricity purchasing cost saving rateMoon cakeThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000042
in the formula IIMean ratio ofSocial cost pi for the monthly average power savingAre all made ofThe weighted average of the price of the electric power on the internet with the post is calculated by the following formula:
Figure BDA0003101603920000043
the power rate supply-demand ratio correlation r (p, Γ) is a correlation coefficient between the transaction power rate at each transaction time point and the current supply-demand ratio, and is specifically calculated as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000044
in the formula, p is the transaction price at each transaction time point, and gamma is the full electric quantity supply-demand ratio of each transaction;
the formula for calculating the Leiner index L is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000045
in the formula, p is the price of the market traffic electricity, and Mp is the average marginal cost of power generation;
the average degree of electricity and carbon emission muCAThe carbon emission of each unit is weighted average according to the traffic electricity quantity;
Figure BDA0003101603920000046
in the formula, QiIs the actual on-line market power of the unit i, qC,iThe carbon emission intensity of the unit i;
the average coal consumption change rate theta is equal to the ratio of the weighted average coal consumption of the market electricity to the weighted average coal consumption of the market capacity:
Figure BDA0003101603920000051
in the formula, ωiAverage power consumption, Cap for unit iiInstalled capacity, Q, of unit iiThe market electric quantity of the unit i is obtained;
the trans-provincial and trans-regional trading proportion is the ratio of trans-provincial and trans-regional trading electric quantity to market assembly trading electric quantity;
the calculation formula of the price volatility is as follows:
the spot-market:
Figure BDA0003101603920000052
in the formula, xiNow thatIs the volatility of the spot market price, pDay ahead、pReal timeDay-ahead and real-time market prices, respectively;
(ii) medium and long term market:
Figure BDA0003101603920000053
in the formula, xiMiddle and longIs the volatility of the medium and long term market price, pYear of year、pMoon cakeRespectively annual and monthly central competitive market prices;
the renewable energy abandon rate is wind abandon and water electricity quantity/(renewable energy generating capacity + wind abandon, light and water electricity quantity);
the permeability of the electric quantity of the renewable energy source is equal to the electric quantity of the renewable energy source/the electric quantity of the dispatching caliber;
the electric quantity penetration of the non-water renewable energy source is max { the power generation output of the non-water renewable energy source/the power demand of the uniform aperture regulation };
the transaction result accuracy ρiIs calculated asThe following:
Figure BDA0003101603920000054
in the formula of UR,iThe number of market main bodies, U, with accurate trading result in the transactioniIs the number of market entities participating in the transaction;
the settlement voucher accuracy ρiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000055
in the formula of UR,iThe number of market main bodies, U, with accurate trading result in the transactioniIs the number of market entities participating in the transaction;
the market subject registration is on average time consuming
Figure BDA0003101603920000061
The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000062
in the formula, TiRegistering time consumption (unit is day) for the ith market subject in the current year, and N is the number of market subjects registered all year round;
said settlement averaging period
Figure BDA0003101603920000063
The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000064
in the formula, LiThe time consumed for the ith settlement in the current year is N, and the annual settlement times are N.
Compared with the prior art, the invention discloses an electric power market operation monitoring index system in a spot market environment, which can carry out scientific management and reasonable supervision on an electric power market.
Detailed Description
The following are specific examples of the present invention and further describe the technical solutions of the present invention, but the present invention is not limited to these examples. Take Zhejiang power-saving market operation monitoring index system as an example.
The electric power market operation monitoring index system in the spot market environment provided by the embodiment of the invention comprises a market structure condition monitoring index, a market operation condition monitoring index and a market performance condition monitoring index; the index weights are shown in table 19.
Table 19 key monitoring index of electric power market
Figure BDA0003101603920000065
Figure BDA0003101603920000071
Second-level key monitoring index measurement and calculation
1. Market structure case (S), algorithm as follows:
the market structure case S ═ maximum supplier remaining supply rate × 50% + demand side CR4 index × 50% + -) x 40% + (energy diversity × 50% + power supply and demand balance index × 50%) × 40% + (transmission congestion index × 50% + fm capacity abundance × 50%) × 20% (1).
The market structure condition value is between 0 and 100, and the higher the value is, the more balanced and reasonable the market structure is, the more fair competition can be promoted.
2. The market operating condition (C) is as follows:
the market operating condition C is (customer-switched electricity vendor ratio × 50% + degree electricity transaction number × 50%) × 50% + (supply-side HHI index × 50% + demand-side HHI index × 50%) × 50% (2).
The market operation condition value is between 0 and 100, and the higher the value, the more active the market trade and the more sufficient the market competition are.
3. Market performance (P), the algorithm is as follows:
the market performance P ═ is (average electricity purchase cost saving rate × 33% + electricity price and supply and demand correlation × 33% + lenr index × 33%) × 30% + (average electricity carbon emission × 33% + average coal consumption change rate × 33% + trans-provincial trans-regional transaction rate × 33%) × 25% + price volatility × 15% + (renewable energy curtailment rate × 33% + renewable energy electricity quantity permeability × 33% + non-water renewable energy electricity quantity permeability water × 33%) × 10% + (transaction result accuracy × 25% + settlement credential accuracy × 25% + main body registration average time consumption × 25% + settlement average period × 25% +) × 20% (3).
The market performance value is between 0 and 100, and the higher the value is, the more effective the market mechanism is, the more effective the resource optimization configuration and the energy conservation and emission reduction can be promoted.
Three-level key monitoring index measurement and calculation
(1) Maximum remaining supplier rate
The index means: the method comprises the steps that the power generator with the largest market share is calculated according to the total available power generation capacity (or power generation capacity) of the units participating in the market, wherein the power generator is calculated according to the same investment subject relationship, a certain investor directly or indirectly holds more than 50% of the share rights of the enterprise through a subsidiary company, or holds less than 50% of the share rights, but the related enterprises are regarded as having the same investment subject relationship according to the investment amount or the share rights of the held share rights which are enough to have great influence on the resolution of stockholders or director, and the market share of the related enterprises is calculated by combining the investor, and the ratio of the total available power generation capacity (or power generation capacity) to the highest total load (or total power demand) of other power generators is calculated. Reflecting the possibility of the primary generator exercising market force. When maximum supplier residual supply rate RSImaxBelow 100%, this indicates that the lack of this generator will not meet market demand, and the generator has control over market price. The smaller the RSI of the generator, the greater its ability to control market price and vice versa.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: let the available power generation capacity (or power generation amount) of the power generator i be qiMaximum supplier residual supply rate RSImaxThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000081
in the formula, qmaxThe available generating capacity (or generating capacity) of the generator with the largest market share, N is the number of the generators, DmaxThe highest load (or power demand) of market users in the evaluation period. Wherein, the available generating capacity (or generating capacity) needs to be reduced by the non-market part, and the available generating capacity (or generating capacity) can be converted by hours. In practical applications, if data such as available power generation capacity, maximum load of market users, and market power generation amount cannot be obtained, installed capacity and system maximum load can be used instead. The output and the input of the electric energy need to be reduced, the span and the provincial transmission capacity (or electric quantity) need to be increased.
The ratio of the total available power generation capacity to the highest total load and the ratio of the total power generation capacity to the total power demand can be respectively calculated, and the minimum value is the maximum remaining supplier supply rate.
Monthly degree: when the remaining supply rate of the maximum supplier in the market is at 120-150%, the market is in a reasonable competition state. Thus, RSI is setmaxAbove 120% is 100 points (theoretically, too low RSI may cause market force, and too high RSI indicates that the installed capacity is excessively higher than the demand, which causes waste; has price control force when less than 100 percent and sets RSImaxIt was 80 minutes. Monthly maximum supplier remaining supply rate score RSIImax monthThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000082
and (4) year: annual score RSII to comprehensively reflect the annual condition of the indexYear maxCalculated as the arithmetic mean of the monthly scores:
Figure BDA0003101603920000091
(2) demand side CR4 index
The index means: the sum of the market shares of the 4 demand-side subjects having the largest market share is calculated for the demand-side subjects participating in the wholesale market (including the power selling companies and the large users participating in the wholesale market, the same applies hereinafter) in terms of the amount of electricity (or the amount of electricity consumed by themselves) settled by the proxy user. Reflecting the possibility of the main market body on the demand side to exercise market forces. The larger the index value is, the higher the demand-side market monopoly is. According to the experience of the foreign mature power market, the CR4 is more than 65 percent, which indicates that the market has the character of oligopolism;
the eu committee defines that CR4 > 70% indicates an oligopolistic nature of the market, and CR4< 40% indicates a healthy market.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: CR4 is calculated as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000092
in the formula, smax,iThe market share, Q, of the ith household demand side subject is evaluated in a cycle in order of the total settlement electric quantity (or self electric consumption) of the user to be proxied from large to smalliAgent electricity quantity (or self electricity consumption quantity) Q of the ith household demand side main bodyMaking a businessThe total amount of electricity of all the demand side bodies.
Monthly degree: considering the actual situation that the electric power market in China is in the starting stage, CR4 is set<The 40% time is 100 points, and the demand side month CR4 index score CR4IMoon cakeThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000093
and (4) year: calculated as the arithmetic mean of the monthly scores:
Figure BDA0003101603920000094
(3) energy diversity
The index means: the balance degree of the energy types and the available power generation capacity ratio participating in the marketized transaction. The diversity of energy structures is mainly reflected, and the more diverse and balanced the energy sources are, the more balanced and stable the energy structures are. Measured by an energy diversity index FDI. The FDI indexes are distributed in the range of 0-1, and the method is mainly used for judging whether the types of primary energy sources corresponding to the electric power market transaction are various and whether the energy occupation ratios of various types are balanced. Higher FDIs represent a more diverse energy structure for business on the market.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: according to the calculation of the installed capacity of the energy participating in the marketization transaction, the calculation formula of the FDI is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000101
in the formula, siMarket share calculated on a reduced installed capacity basis for a class i energy source entering the market and participating in marketized transactions. Wherein, nuclear power, coal power, gas power, oil power and water power are converted by a coefficient of 1.0, and wind power, photovoltaic power and other types of power sources are converted by a coefficient of 0.5 (namely, the market share is calculated by half capacity). Provincial power market evaluation needs to deduct the capacity of a cross-provincial and cross-regional transaction part.
In practical application, the generated energy of various types of units participating in market trading can be used for replacing installed capacity for calculation.
Monthly degree: setting 60 points for the market-oriented trade of energy entering the market and the monthly index FDII of energy diversityMoon cakeThe calculation formula is as follows:
FDIImoon cake＝60+40·FDI (11)
And (4) year: calculated from the arithmetic mean of the monthly conditions.
Figure BDA0003101603920000102
(4) Power supply and demand balance situation
The index means: the electric energy supply tension degree of the market is reflected, and the competitive relationship between the supply and demand parties is analyzed. The supply-demand ratio is measured, the supply-demand ratio is in a certain balance range, too high indicates serious surplus supply and resource waste, and too low indicates supply shortage.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: the installed capacity of the power generation is relatively stable, and the power load is greatly different from month to month. In view of this, the supply-demand ratio during the current year or the last year of the highest load is taken as a reference. The calculation of the supply-demand ratio should consider the market power and the non-market power, and the supply and the load of the province and the province, wherein the export province takes the export power as the load, and the input province takes the input power as the power supply. Let QNeed maxMax { highest aligned load in the current year to the current month, highest aligned load in the last year }, QSupply maxIs QNeed maxThe calculation formula of the supply-demand ratio corresponding to the highest available power generation capacity of the month is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000103
in practical applications, the total installed capacity may be used in place of the maximum available generation capacity. And the highest available power generation capacity and the highest load of the system can be replaced by the power generation amount and the total power demand respectively for calculation.
Monthly degree: the supply-demand ratio should be converted to a percentile form. Considering the current demand of national socioeconomic development and the great load difference between the spring festival and the summer peak in partial areas, the demand-supply ratio is set to be 100 minutes when the demand-supply ratio is more than 1.3. The specific calculation method is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000111
and (4) year: calculated as the arithmetic mean of the monthly case:
Figure BDA0003101603920000112
(5) transmission congestion indicator
The index means: and the economic value of the power grid line blockage in the power grid structure is reflected.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: the transmission blocking index is the sum of the blocking power price of each blocking section.
(6) Capacity margin of frequency modulation
The index means: reflecting the abundance degree of the adjustable capacity in the operation of the power grid.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: and (reporting the total capacity of frequency modulation-the actual capacity of frequency modulation)/the actual demand of frequency modulation.
(7) Customer-switched electricity vendor ratio
The index means: the annual index is the ratio of the number of users who change electricity-selling companies in the current year and the number of users who change electricity-selling companies in the current year compared with the previous year and participate in transactions at the end of the previous year. According to the experience of the foreign mature power market, the replacement proportion of about 10-20% indicates that the market competition is relatively sufficient, if the proportion is too low, the competition is not sufficient, and if the proportion is too high, the market changes too violently and the risk is too high.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: the user switching electricity selling merchant proportion sigma calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000113
in the formula of UChangeable pipeFor changing the number of users of electricity vendors, UMaking a businessThe number of users participating in the transaction at the end of the last year. For the case where one user can be proxied by a plurality of electric power selling companies, UChangeable pipeU for changing the number of agent relations (several changes in the same agent relation only once per year)Making a businessThe total number of the agency relations is (for example, a certain province has two annual and monthly transaction varieties, each transaction variety of a certain user is proxied by different power selling companies, the number of the agency relations is 2, the monthly transaction of the user is proxied by different power selling companies, and the number of the changed agency relations is 1).
Monthly degree: and switching the electricity vendor ratio annual index by the user in the last year.
And (4) year: referring to the experience of the foreign mature power market, if the replacement ratio is set to 100 points when the replacement ratio is about 10-20%, and 0 points when the replacement ratio is 0 or more than or equal to 1, the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000121
(8) number of power consumption transactions
The index means: and calculating the ratio of the total trading electric quantity of the wholesale market to the sum of the actual electric quantity used by the market users and the transfer of the base electric quantity according to the trading electric quantity of the target time in the evaluation period (such as year, season and month). The total transaction electric quantity of the wholesale market refers to the total transaction electric quantity of a first-level market and a second-level market, and comprises market electric quantity transactions such as medium-and-long-term market transaction electric quantity, spot market transaction electric quantity, power generation right transfer, power utilization right transfer and the like, and base electric quantity transfer transactions; the actual electricity consumption of market users can be replaced by the first-level market trading electricity. The number of trades reflects the liquidity of the market and the activity of the market trading.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: let QGeneral assemblyFor total trading electric quantity, Q, of wholesale market1The total transaction electric quantity (including base electric quantity transfer) of the first-class market is obtained.
The calculation formula of the power consumption transaction times K is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000122
in the formula, QTotal, tTotal trading electric quantity Q of first-level market and second-level market with target time t1,tThe first-class market trading power with the target time t is used.
Monthly degree: the current stage of transaction needs to have moderate liquidity and reduced speculativity, and the number of defined electric transactions is 100 minutes when the number is 2-3 and 60 minutes when the number is 1. Monthly electric transaction frequency score KIMoon cakeThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000123
and (4) year: algorithm concordance index:
Figure BDA0003101603920000124
(9) supply side HHI index
The index means: HHI index is a general indicator reflecting market concentration. The fewer market members, the more concentrated the market share, the greater the HHI, the greater the likelihood that a market member will exercise market force; conversely, the smaller the HHI, the better the market competitiveness. The HHI division criteria are competitive market (HHI < 1000), low-low occupancy market (1000 < HHI < 1800) and high-low occupancy market (1800 < HHI).
The calculation method comprises the following steps: the HHI index calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000131
in the formula, siThe market share of the traffic electricity quantity for the ith power generation group is formed. 10000 is a magnification index value.
Monthly degree: the HHI index needs to be converted to a percentile score. Referring to the relative practice of the energy agency FERC in the United states, HHI < 500 is a competitive II-type market, which shows that the market competition is sufficient, and HHI > 3000 is a high-low-occupation I-type market, which shows that the market is highly centralized. In consideration of the actual situation of China, market bodies on the supply side are relatively concentrated, HHI is set to be less than or equal to 500 and is set to be 100 points, and HHI is set to be 3000 and is set to be 60 points. The supply-side monthly HHI index score calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000132
and (4) year: calculated as the arithmetic mean of the monthly index scores:
Figure BDA0003101603920000133
(10) demand side HHI index
The index means: with the feed side HHI index.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: HHI index, s, on the same supply sideiAnd market share of the traffic electricity quantity is formed for the market of the ith demand side main body. 10000 is a magnification index value.
Monthly degree: referring to the relative practice of the energy agency FERC in the United states, HHI < 500 is a competitive II-type market, which shows that the market competition is sufficient, and HHI > 3000 is a high-low-occupation I-type market, which shows that the market is highly centralized. Considering the actual condition of China, HHI is set to be more than or equal to 3000 and 0, and HHI is set to be less than or equal to 500 and 100. The supply-side monthly HHI index score calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000134
and (4) year: calculated as the arithmetic mean of the monthly index scores:
Figure BDA0003101603920000135
(11) average power purchase cost savings
The index means: compared with the provincial and provincial catalog electricity price, the market electricity average electricity purchasing cost is reduced. The economic benefit brought by resource optimization configuration is reflected by market competition of power trading.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: social cost pi is practiced thrift to average degree electricityAre all made ofThe weighted average value of the electricity purchasing cost saved by all the user electricity consumption is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000141
in the formula, QBy using＝∑QiFor the sum of the actual power consumption of the consumers, QiFor the actual electricity consumption of the market user i, pi orderFor the directory price, p, of user ii cityAnd making the electricity price for the market of the user i.
In practical application, the catalog electricity price corresponds to different voltage levels of different users in different regions, and the quantity of the users is large, so that the calculation is complex. In order to simplify the calculation, the price of the on-line marker post can be used for replacing the price of the catalog electricity, so that the social cost pi is saved by averaging electricityAre all made ofThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000142
in the formula, QiIs the actual on-line market electricity quantity, Q, of the unit iBy using＝∑QiIs the sum of actual power consumption of users, pi onFor the verification of unit i, the price of electricity for network access pFa city of IAnd (5) making the electricity price for the market of the unit i. Wherein p isFa city of IThe ratio of the total yield of the unit to the total traffic capacity can be calculated.
Monthly degree: according to the requirement of national speed increasing and cost reducing, the average price reduction is more than 10 percent and is 100 minutes, and the price rising is 0 minute. Monthly index II of average electricity purchasing cost saving rateMoon cakeThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000143
in the formula IIMean ratio ofSocial cost pi for the monthly average power savingAre all made ofThe weighted average of the price of the electric power on the internet with the post is calculated by the following formula:
Figure BDA0003101603920000144
the upper type indicates IIMean ratio ofThe ratio of the total cost saved for the month to the total cost calculated from the benchmarked grid electricity prices.
And (4) year: the algorithm is consistent with the month:
Figure BDA0003101603920000145
in the formula IIMean ratio ofSocial cost pi for average power saving in the yearAre all made ofAnd the calculation formula of the weighted average of the price of the power on the internet with the post is shown as a formula (26).
(12) Correlation of electricity price supply and demand conditions
The index means: and reflecting the correlation between the electricity price and the supply and demand relationship, and describing whether the electricity price effectively reflects the power supply and demand condition. The higher the relevance, the more the market mechanism can reflect the supply and demand situation, and the more effective the market is.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: the power rate supply-demand ratio correlation r (p, Γ) is a correlation coefficient between the transaction power rate at each transaction time and the current supply-demand ratio, and is specifically calculated as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000151
in the formula, p is the transaction price at each transaction time point, and Γ is the full electric quantity supply-demand ratio of each transaction.
Monthly degree: calculated according to the annual index of the last year.
And (4) year: when the electrovalence supply-demand ratio correlation r (p, Γ) is greater than 0, setting the correlation as 0 min; when the content is less than 0, the percentage system is taken. The annual score calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000152
(13) leno index
The index means: the relationship of the deal price to the marginal cost is described. The smaller the value is, the closer the price of the generator set is to the marginal cost, and the more sufficient the market competition is. The index is used as an index database alternative index, and measurement and calculation are carried out when the conditions are mature.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: the formula for the lux index L is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000153
in the formula, p is the price of the market traffic electricity, and Mp is the average marginal cost of power generation.
Monthly degree: in a fully competitive power market, power generation enterprises may quote their own marginal cost, with a lener index tending to 0. Generally, in more competitive markets, the lenr index is slightly above 0; when the lener index deviates far from 0, it indicates that there is market potential. Lunar index LIMoon cakeThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000154
and (4) year: annual index LIYear of yearTaking the arithmetic mean of the monthly indices:
Figure BDA0003101603920000161
(14) average degree of electric quantity of market and carbon emission
The index means: the average carbon emission of market trading electric quantity describes the contribution of market trading to environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: average degree of electric quantity of market and discharge amount of electric carbon muCAAnd the carbon emission of each unit is weighted average according to the traffic electricity quantity.
Figure BDA0003101603920000162
In the formula, QiIs the actual on-line market power of the unit i, qC,iThe carbon emission intensity of unit i. Can be calculated from measured data, or from default data (see table 20):
TABLE 20 Default carbon emission intensity data for various units (kg-CO 2/kWh)
Figure BDA0003101603920000163
Monthly degree: average carbon emission intensity mu of coal-fired unit at 600MW levelC60060 minutes, and 100 minutes when the average degree electrical carbon emission intensity is 0. In the calculation, the measured data or the default data mu can be usedC6000.617kg/kWh as standard:
Figure BDA0003101603920000164
and (4) year: weighted average calculation according to month:
Figure BDA0003101603920000165
(15) average rate of change of coal consumption
The index means: the resource optimization allocation effect through marketization transaction is reflected, and the average power consumption and the coal consumption are reduced.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: the average coal consumption change rate theta is equal to the ratio of the weighted average coal consumption of the market electricity to the weighted average coal consumption of the market capacity:
Figure BDA0003101603920000171
in the formula, ωiAverage power consumption, Cap for unit iiInstalled capacity, Q, of unit iiThe power is the market power of the unit i.
Monthly degree: when theta is less than 0, the coal consumption is increased through the marketization trade, and is set as 0 point, and when theta is more than 5%, the value is set as 100.
Monthly index θ IMoon cakeThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000172
and (4) year: calculating according to the weighted average of the monthly index:
Figure BDA0003101603920000173
(16) cross province and cross district transaction rate
The index means: and describing the condition of cross-province and cross-district resource optimal configuration by the ratio of the cross-province and cross-district transaction electric quantity to the market assembly transaction electric quantity. The index is used as an index library alternative index, and each power market selects and calculates according to actual conditions.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: the ratio is used directly.
Monthly degree: the ratio is used directly.
And (4) year: calculated from a weighted average of the monthly indices.
(17) Volatility of price
The index means: whether the price has the risk of severe fluctuation is described through changes of day-ahead prices and real-time prices, medium-long term prices and spot prices and the like.
The calculation method comprises the following steps:
the spot-market:
Figure BDA0003101603920000174
in the formula, xiNow thatIs the volatility of the spot market price, pDay ahead、pReal timeDay-ahead and real-time market prices, respectively.
(ii) medium and long term market:
Figure BDA0003101603920000181
in the formula, xiMiddle and longIs the volatility of the medium and long term market price, pYear of year、pMoon cakeRespectively annual and monthly competitive market prices.
Monthly degree: statistically, when the variation coefficient is greater than 0.05, abnormal data may exist, and important attention needs to be paid, so the price fluctuation rate score is calculated by the ratio of 0.05 to the price fluctuation rate, that is: when the fluctuation ratio is less than or equal to 0.05, the score is 100, otherwise, the score is scaled according to the closeness.
Figure BDA0003101603920000182
Figure BDA0003101603920000183
In the formula, xi IiIs the price volatility score, ξ I, of the ith hour of the monthMoon cakeMonthly index of price volatility.
And (4) year: calculated from the arithmetic mean of the monthly degrees.
(18) Abandon rate of renewable energy
The index means: reflecting the condition of renewable energy abandonment.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: the renewable energy abandon rate is wind abandon and water electricity quantity/(renewable energy power generation quantity + wind abandon, light and water electricity quantity).
And (4) year: calculated from the arithmetic mean of the monthly degrees.
(19) Permeability of electric quantity of renewable energy
The index means: reflecting the electric quantity permeability condition of the renewable energy source.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: and the permeability of the electric quantity of the renewable energy source is equal to the electric quantity of the renewable energy source/the electric quantity of the dispatching caliber.
And (4) year: calculated from the arithmetic mean of the monthly degrees.
(20) Electric quantity permeability of non-water renewable energy source
The index means: reflecting the electric quantity permeability condition of the non-water renewable energy source.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: and the abandon rate of the non-water renewable energy is max (the power generation output of the non-water renewable energy/the power demand of the uniform aperture).
And (4) year: calculated from the arithmetic mean of the monthly degrees.
(21) Transaction result accuracy
The index means: the accuracy of the amount and price information of the transaction clearing and the result release. Reflecting the quality of work of the transaction organization process.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: accuracy rate rho of transaction result in certain transactioniIs calculated asThe following:
Figure BDA0003101603920000191
in the formula of UR,iThe number of market main bodies, U, with accurate trading result in the transactioniIs the number of market entities participating in the transaction.
Annual transaction result accuracy
Figure BDA0003101603920000192
Is the arithmetic mean of the accuracy of all trade results throughout the year:
Figure BDA0003101603920000193
(22) rate of accuracy of settlement vouchers
The index means: the accuracy of the information such as the amount of the issued transaction settlement electricity, the fee and the like. Reflecting the quality of the settlement work.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: accounting for credential accuracy in a transaction
Figure BDA0003101603920000194
The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000195
in the formula of UR,iCalculating accurate market subject number, U, for the voucher in the transactioniIs the number of market entities participating in the transaction.
Annual settlement voucher accuracy
Figure BDA0003101603920000196
Is the arithmetic mean of all settlement voucher accuracies throughout the year:
Figure BDA0003101603920000197
(23) average time spent for subject registration
The index means: the market main body takes time from submitting the material for registration to the time when the transaction institution finishes auditing and registration. Reflecting the speed of response of the exchange to the market subject's demand.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: average time spent by annual market subject registration
Figure BDA0003101603920000198
The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000199
in the formula, TiThe registration of the ith market subject in the current year is time-consuming (in days), and N is the number of market subjects registered all the year round.
(24) Mean period of settlement
The index means: and the time for issuing the settlement evidence after the power utilization period is ended. Reflecting the speed of response of the exchange to the market subject's demand.
The calculation method comprises the following steps: mean period of settlement
Figure BDA0003101603920000201
The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003101603920000202
in the formula, LiThe time consumed for the ith settlement in the current year (unit is day, and the time consumed for clearing the spot date is included), and N is the settlement times in the whole year (including the clearing times on the spot date).
The specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the spirit of the invention. Various modifications or additions may be made to the described embodiments or alternatives may be employed by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit or ambit of the invention as defined in the appended claims.

Claims (10)

1. An electric power market operation monitoring index system in a spot market environment comprises a market structure condition monitoring index, a market operation condition monitoring index and a market performance condition monitoring index;
the market structure condition monitoring indexes comprise market main body monitoring indexes, supply and demand structure monitoring indexes and power grid structure monitoring indexes;
the market operation condition monitoring indexes comprise market transaction monitoring indexes and market competition monitoring indexes;
the market performance monitoring indexes comprise economic performance monitoring indexes, social performance monitoring indexes, market risk monitoring indexes, clean energy development performance monitoring indexes and transaction institution service performance indexes.
2. The system for monitoring indicators of power market operation in a spot market environment according to claim 1, wherein the market body monitoring indicators comprise a maximum supplier remaining supply rate and a demand side CR4 index; the supply and demand structure monitoring indexes comprise energy diversity indexes and power supply and demand balance indexes; the power grid structure monitoring indexes comprise transmission blocking indexes and frequency modulation capacity richness.
3. The electric power market operation monitoring indicator system in a spot market environment according to claim 1, wherein the market transaction monitoring indicator comprises a user switching vendor ratio and a power consumption transaction number; the market race monitoring indicators include a supply-side HHI index and a demand-side HHI index.
4. The electric power market operation monitoring indicator system in a spot market environment according to claim 1, wherein the economic performance monitoring indicators include average electricity purchase cost savings, correlation of electricity prices with supply and demand conditions, and lener index; the social performance monitoring indexes comprise average electric carbon emission, average coal consumption change rate and trans-provincial and trans-regional trading proportion; the market risk monitoring indicators include price volatility indicators; the clean energy development performance monitoring indexes comprise renewable energy abandonment rate, renewable energy electric quantity permeability and non-water renewable energy electric quantity permeability; the service performance indexes of the trading mechanism comprise trading result accuracy, settlement voucher accuracy, main body registration average time consumption and settlement average period.
5. The electric power market operation monitoring indicator system in a spot market environment according to claim 1, wherein the market structure condition monitoring indicator calculation formula is as follows:
market structure case ═ maximum supplier remaining supply rate × 50% + demand side CR4 index × 50% + -.) × 40% + (energy diversity index × 50% + power supply and demand balance index × 50%) × 40% + (transmission congestion index × 50% + fm capacity abundance × 50%) × 20%.
6. The electric power market operation monitoring indicator system in a spot market environment according to claim 1, wherein the market operation condition monitoring indicator calculation formula is as follows:
market operation condition ═ 50% + degree electricity transaction times × 50%, (supply-side HHI index × 50% + demand-side HHI index × 50%) × 50% + (user-switched electricity vendor ratio × 50% + degree electricity transaction times × 50%).
7. The electric power market operation monitoring indicator system in a spot market environment according to claim 1, wherein the market performance monitoring indicator calculation formula is as follows: the market performance ═ is (average electricity purchase cost saving rate × 33% + electricity price and supply and demand correlation × 33% + lenr index × 33%) × 30% + (average electricity carbon emission × 33% + average coal consumption change rate × 33% + trans-provincial trans-regional trading ratio × 33%) × 25% + price volatility × 15% + (renewable energy curtailment rate × 33% + renewable energy electricity consumption permeability × 33% + non-aqueous renewable energy electricity consumption permeability × 33%) × 10% + (trade result accuracy × 25% + accounting voucher accuracy × 25% + main body registration average time consumption × 25% + accounting average period × 25% + accounting + 20%).
8. The electric power market operation monitoring indicator system in a spot market environment according to claim 5, wherein the available power generation capacity (or power generation capacity) of the power generator i is made qiThe maximum supplier remaining supply rate RSImaxThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000021
in the formula, the available power generation capacity or the generated energy of the power generator with the largest market share is obtained, N is the number of the power generators and is the highest load or the electric quantity demand of market users in an evaluation period;
the calculation formula of the demand side CR4 index is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000022
in the formula, smax,iThe market share, Q, of the ith household demand side main body is ranked from large to small according to the total settlement electric quantity of the user or the self electric quantity in the evaluation periodiAgent or self-consumption of electricity, Q, for the ith household demand side subjectMaking a businessThe total electric quantity of all the demand side main bodies;
the energy diversity index FDI has the following calculation formula:
Figure FDA0003101603910000023
in the formula, siMarket share calculated by reduced installed capacity for the ith type of energy entering the market and participating in marketization;
let QNeed maxMax { highest aligned load in the current year to the current month, highest aligned load in the last year }, QSupply maxIs QNeed maxThe power supply and demand balance index calculation formula corresponds to the highest available power generation capacity of the month as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000024
the transmission blocking index is the sum of the blocking power prices of all the blocking sections;
and the frequency modulation capacity richness margin is (total reported frequency modulation capacity-frequency modulation actual demand capacity)/frequency modulation actual demand.
9. The electric power market operation monitoring indicator system in a spot market environment according to claim 6, wherein the user-switched electricity vendor ratio σ calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000031
in the formula of UChangeable pipeFor changing the number of users of electricity vendors, UMaking a businessThe number of users participating in the transaction at the end of the last year;
let QGeneral assemblyFor total trading electric quantity, Q, of wholesale market1The calculation formula of the electricity consumption transaction times K for the total transaction electricity quantity of the first-class market is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000032
in the formula, QTotal, tTotal trading electric quantity Q of first-level market and second-level market with target time t1,tThe first-level market trading electric quantity with the target time of t;
the supply-side HHI index calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000033
in the formula, si10000 is an amplification index value, which is the market share of the marketized traffic electric quantity of the ith power generation group;
the demand side HHI index calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000034
in the formula, si10000 is an amplification index value, which is the market share of the marketized trading power of the ith demand side subject.
10. The electric power market operation monitoring indicator system in a spot market environment according to claim 7,
social cost pi is practiced thrift to average degree electricityAre all made ofThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000035
in the formula, QiIs the actual on-line market electricity quantity, Q, of the unit iBy using＝∑QiIs the sum of actual power consumption of users, pi onFor the verification of unit i, the price of electricity for network access pFa city of IMaking a transaction price for the market of the unit i; wherein p isFa city of IThe ratio of the total yield of the unit to the total traffic capacity can be calculated;
the monthly index II of the average electricity purchasing cost saving rateMoon cakeThe calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000036
in the formula IIMean ratio ofSocial cost pi for the monthly average power savingAre all made ofThe weighted average of the price of the electric power on the internet with the post is calculated by the following formula:
Figure FDA0003101603910000041
the power rate supply-demand ratio correlation r (p, Γ) is a correlation coefficient between the transaction power rate at each transaction time point and the current supply-demand ratio, and is specifically calculated as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000042
in the formula, p is the transaction price at each transaction time point, and gamma is the full electric quantity supply-demand ratio of each transaction;
the formula for calculating the Leiner index L is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000043
in the formula, p is the price of the market traffic electricity, and Mp is the average marginal cost of power generation;
the average degree of electricity and carbon emission muCAThe carbon emission of each unit is weighted average according to the traffic electricity quantity;
Figure FDA0003101603910000044
in the formula, QiIs the actual on-line market power of the unit i, qC,iThe carbon emission intensity of the unit i;
the average coal consumption change rate theta is equal to the ratio of the weighted average coal consumption of the market electricity to the weighted average coal consumption of the market capacity:
Figure FDA0003101603910000045
in the formula, ωiAverage power consumption, Cap for unit iiInstalled capacity, Q, of unit iiThe market electric quantity of the unit i is obtained;
the trans-provincial and trans-regional trading proportion is the ratio of trans-provincial and trans-regional trading electric quantity to market assembly trading electric quantity;
the calculation formula of the price volatility is as follows:
the spot-market:
Figure FDA0003101603910000051
in the formula, xiNow thatIs the volatility of the spot market price, pDay ahead、pReal timeDay-ahead and real-time market prices, respectively;
(ii) medium and long term market:
Figure FDA0003101603910000052
in the formula, xiMiddle and longIs the volatility of the medium and long term market price, pYear of year、pMoon cakeRespectively annual and monthly central competitive market prices;
the renewable energy abandon rate is wind abandon and water electricity quantity/(renewable energy generating capacity + wind abandon, light and water electricity quantity);
the permeability of the electric quantity of the renewable energy source is equal to the electric quantity of the renewable energy source/the electric quantity of the dispatching caliber;
the electric quantity penetration of the non-water renewable energy source is max { the power generation output of the non-water renewable energy source/the power demand of the uniform aperture regulation };
the transaction result accuracy ρiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000053
in the formula of UR,iThe number of market main bodies, U, with accurate trading result in the transactioniIs the number of market entities participating in the transaction;
the settlement voucher accuracy ρiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000054
in the formula of UR,iThe number of market main bodies, U, with accurate trading result in the transactioniIs the number of market entities participating in the transaction;
the market subject registration is on average time consuming
Figure FDA0003101603910000055
The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000056
in the formula, TiRegistering time consumption (unit is day) for the ith market subject in the current year, and N is the number of market subjects registered all year round;
said settlement averaging period
Figure FDA0003101603910000057
The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure FDA0003101603910000058
in the formula, LiThe time consumed for the ith settlement in the current year is N, and the annual settlement times are N.
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Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN114971422A (en) * 2022-07-26 2022-08-30 中国华能集团清洁能源技术研究院有限公司 Auxiliary control system and method for ten-day transaction of medium-long time-sharing transaction of electric power
CN115481802A (en) * 2022-09-21 2022-12-16 东南大学溧阳研究院 Urban power grid orderly power utilization method considering carbon emission and power utilization grade constraints

Cited By (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN114971422A (en) * 2022-07-26 2022-08-30 中国华能集团清洁能源技术研究院有限公司 Auxiliary control system and method for ten-day transaction of medium-long time-sharing transaction of electric power
CN115481802A (en) * 2022-09-21 2022-12-16 东南大学溧阳研究院 Urban power grid orderly power utilization method considering carbon emission and power utilization grade constraints
CN115481802B (en) * 2022-09-21 2024-03-01 东南大学溧阳研究院 Urban power grid ordered electricity utilization method considering carbon emission and electricity utilization level constraint

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