CN113487176A - Reliability calculation method for park comprehensive energy system based on fault incidence matrix - Google Patents

Reliability calculation method for park comprehensive energy system based on fault incidence matrix Download PDF

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CN113487176A
CN113487176A CN202110753561.9A CN202110753561A CN113487176A CN 113487176 A CN113487176 A CN 113487176A CN 202110753561 A CN202110753561 A CN 202110753561A CN 113487176 A CN113487176 A CN 113487176A
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equipment
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CN113487176B (en
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赵金利
熊家亮
于浩
李鹏
冀浩然
宋关羽
王成山
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Tianjin University
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Abstract

A reliability calculation method of a park comprehensive energy system based on a fault incidence matrix comprises the following steps: inputting equipment, topology, operational and fault parameters of the system for a given campus integrated energy system; numbering equipment, branches and buses respectively, and carrying out hierarchical division on the buses; establishing an equipment fault rate, a fault repairing time vector and a bus load column vector; establishing an equipment-input branch incidence matrix, a bus-input branch vector of each bus, a bus-output branch matrix, a branch energy conversion coefficient matrix and an inter-bus transfer relation matrix; calculating the maximum energy supply capacity vectors of the system branches when the equipment fails one by one to form a maximum energy supply capacity matrix of all the branches when the equipment fails; generating a bus residual energy supply capacity matrix, a bus transfer load matrix and a bus stop load matrix when equipment fails; and calculating the reliability index of each bus of the park comprehensive energy system. According to the method, the reliability index of the park comprehensive energy system can be rapidly calculated through the fault incidence matrix.

Description

Reliability calculation method for park comprehensive energy system based on fault incidence matrix
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method for calculating the reliability of an integrated energy system. In particular to a reliability calculation method of a park comprehensive energy system based on a fault incidence matrix.
Background
With the increasing exhaustion of traditional fossil Energy and the deterioration of the environment, in order to realize Energy conservation and emission reduction and improve Energy utilization efficiency, an Energy System develops from a traditional independent planning design and independent operation mode of an electricity System, a gas System, a cold System and a heat System to an Integrated Energy System (IES). The comprehensive energy system performs overall coordination, coordination and optimization on distribution, conversion, storage and consumption of various energy sources, realizes multi-energy coupling complementation and improves the energy supply reliability of the system. Therefore, the influence of a fault mechanism of equipment, topological change of a network and a multi-energy coupling conversion factor on the operation state of the system is considered, a comprehensive energy reliability evaluation index is established, a reliability evaluation method is researched, the risk level of system energy supply interruption is reflected by qualitative or quantitative indexes, and the method has important significance for guiding production actual activities such as IES planning, operation and the like.
At present, most of reliability evaluation methods for the park comprehensive energy system adopt an analog method, the running condition of the whole system is simulated by sampling the states of all elements of the system, the energy supply condition of all users in the system is recorded, and the reliability index of each load node is calculated through a large number of simulated statistical results. In order to obtain an accurate reliability index, the method is time-consuming, and the relationship between the factors affecting the reliability and the evaluation index cannot be clearly shown. The method comprises the steps of adopting a reliability index calculation method based on a fault incidence matrix, taking elements as objects, sequentially analyzing the influence of each element fault on each load point, constructing a corresponding fault incidence matrix according to different influence types, and obtaining the reliability index of each load point through superposition of fault probability and fault time. Through the fault incidence matrix, the influence of the fault event on the reliability index can be visually displayed, the weak link of the system reliability is convenient to find out, the system operation strategy is favorably optimized, and the system reliability is improved.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is to provide a reliability calculation method of the park comprehensive energy system based on the fault incidence matrix, which can visually display the influence of the fault event on the reliability index, is convenient for finding out the weak links of the system reliability and improves the system reliability.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a reliability calculation method for a park integrated energy system based on a fault incidence matrix comprises the following steps:
1) for a given campus complex energy system, the following parameter information is input: equipment parameters including the type, number, rated capacity, power, and efficiency or energy efficiency ratio of each equipment in the system; system topology parameters including branch, equipment, bus connection relation and interconnection switch position; the system operation parameters comprise the load size and the load priority on each bus and the priority start-stop sequence of the equipment; system fault parameters including fault rate and fault repair time of each device, and system scheduling transfer time after fault;
2) searching equipment, a branch and a bus from source equipment by adopting a breadth-first search algorithm, and numbering the equipment, the branch and the bus according to a search sequence; when numbering is carried out on a plurality of output branches and equipment of the same type on the same bus, the output branches and the equipment are arranged from high to low according to the priority of branch loads or the priority start-stop sequence of the equipment; the buses are divided in a hierarchical mode, and from a source device, the hierarchy of each bus is increased by one level when energy flows through each bus;
3) arranging all equipment fault rates, fault repair time and bus loads according to the serial number sequence respectively, and establishing an equipment fault rate vector
Figure BDA0003146269610000021
Device failure repair time vector
Figure BDA0003146269610000022
Figure BDA0003146269610000023
And bus load column vector P ═ P1 P2 … Pk … Pb]TWhere m is the total number of devices, b is the total number of busbars in the system,
Figure BDA0003146269610000024
respectively representing the failure rate and the failure repair time of the device i; pkRepresenting the direct supply load on bus k;
4) establishing an equipment-input branch incidence matrix C and a bus-input branch vector of each bus according to the equipment parameters, the system topology parameters and the system operation parameters input in the step 1)
Figure BDA0003146269610000025
Bus-output branch matrix
Figure BDA0003146269610000026
A branch energy conversion coefficient matrix L and an inter-bus transfer relation matrix T;
5) according to the input equipment rated capacity and the equipment-input branch matrix C and the bus-input branch vector obtained in the step 4)
Figure BDA0003146269610000027
And bus-output branch matrix
Figure BDA0003146269610000028
Calculating the maximum energy supply capacity vector of all branches of the system when the equipment i fails one by one
Figure BDA0003146269610000029
Forming a maximum energy supply capacity matrix Z of all branches during equipment failuremax,end；
6) According to the maximum energy supply capacity matrix Z of the branch circuit when the equipment is in faultmax,endConsidering the restoration of the load after the fault and the transfer supply between the buses, the residual energy supply capacity moment of the buses is established when the equipment is in faultArray FABus transfer load matrix FBBus supply stop load matrix FC；
7) According to matrix FA、FB、FCAnd the fault parameter vector lambda obtained in the step 3)d、UdCalculating the reliability index of each bus of the park comprehensive energy system, including the annual average supply-stop frequency index lambda of the busbAnnual average outage time index UbAnd the expected starvation index EENSb。
The reliability calculation method of the park integrated energy system based on the fault incidence matrix can realize the reliability index analysis calculation of the park integrated energy system containing different energy types such as electricity, cold and heat, avoid repeated equipment fault enumeration and consequence analysis work in the reliability calculation, improve the calculation efficiency, quickly identify weak links influencing the reliability of the park integrated energy system through the analysis of the fault incidence matrix, and provide a theoretical basis for the improvement of the reliability of the park integrated energy system.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a park integrated energy system reliability calculation method based on a fault correlation matrix according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of the numbering of branch buses of the actual integrated energy system equipment according to a certain park;
fig. 3 is a three-class fault correlation matrix.
Detailed Description
The reliability calculation method of the campus integrated energy system based on the fault correlation matrix according to the present invention is described in detail with reference to the following embodiments and the accompanying drawings.
The method for calculating the reliability of the park integrated energy system based on the fault correlation matrix according to the present invention is described below with reference to the example of the integrated energy system shown in fig. 2, and as shown in fig. 1, the method includes the following steps:
1) for a given campus complex energy system, the following parameter information is input: equipment parameters including the type, number, rated capacity, power, and efficiency or energy efficiency ratio of each equipment in the system; system topology parameters including branch, equipment, bus connection relation and interconnection switch position; the system operation parameters comprise the load size and the load priority on each bus and the priority start-stop sequence of the equipment; system fault parameters including fault rate and fault repair time of each device, and system scheduling transfer time after fault; the branch, the bus and the equipment have the following meanings:
(1) branch circuit: the connecting device and the bus carry the input or output of electricity, cold and heat power; maximum energy supply capability of branch j
Figure BDA0003146269610000031
Wherein
Figure BDA0003146269610000032
Equipment capacity constraint for branch j;
Figure BDA0003146269610000033
allocating constraints for the bus capacity of branch j;
(2) bus bar: the energy flows of the electricity, cold and hot branches are collected and distributed by connecting the input branch with the superior equipment and connecting the output branch with the bus direct supply load or the subordinate equipment; all buses are mutually supplied through the interconnection switch; the level of the bus is determined by the number of buses through which the energy flow from the source equipment to the bus passes;
(3) the equipment specifically comprises the following types:
a source device: providing energy input for the system, and only connecting the output branch;
conversion equipment: the energy conversion in the system is realized, and one input branch and more than one output branch are connected;
an energy storage device: the electric, cold and heat energy storage is realized, and an input and output branch is shared; when the reliability of the system is calculated, the energy storage equipment only releases energy during the equipment failure period, and only one output branch is connected;
2) searching equipment, a branch and a bus from source equipment by adopting a breadth-first search algorithm, and numbering the equipment, the branch and the bus according to a search sequence; when numbering is carried out on a plurality of output branches and equipment of the same type on the same bus, the output branches and the equipment are arranged from high to low according to the priority of branch loads or the priority start-stop sequence of the equipment; the buses are divided in a hierarchical mode, and from a source device, the hierarchy of each bus is increased by one level when energy flows through each bus;
3) arranging all equipment fault rates, fault repair time and bus loads according to the serial number sequence respectively, and establishing an equipment fault rate vector
Figure BDA0003146269610000034
Device failure repair time vector
Figure BDA0003146269610000035
Figure BDA0003146269610000036
And bus load column vector P ═ P1 P2 … Pk … Pb]TWhere m is the total number of devices, b is the total number of busbars in the system,
Figure BDA0003146269610000037
respectively representing the failure rate and the failure repair time of the device i; pkRepresenting the direct supply load on bus k;
for the embodiment, the priority of the load during the operation of the system is the park electric load, the ground source heat pump subsystem, the cold water main machine subsystem and the electric boiler subsystem from high to low in sequence, the serial numbers of each device, branch and bus are shown in fig. 2, and the parameters of each device and the load of the bus are shown in the following table 1 and table 2.
4) Establishing an equipment-input branch incidence matrix C and a bus-input branch vector of each bus according to the equipment parameters, the system topology parameters and the system operation parameters input in the step 1)
Figure BDA0003146269610000038
Bus-output branch matrix
Figure BDA0003146269610000039
Branch energy conversion coefficient matrix L and inter-bus transfer relation matrixT, the specific form is as follows:
(1) device-input branch incidence matrix C:
Figure BDA00031462696100000310
in the formula, C (i, j) is the ith row and the jth column element of the matrix C, the row of the matrix corresponds to the serial number of the equipment, and the column of the matrix corresponds to the serial number of the branch; c is belonged to Rm×nM and n are respectively the total equipment number and branch number in the system;
(2) bus-input branch vector for bus k
Figure BDA00031462696100000311
Bus-output branch matrix
Figure BDA00031462696100000312
Respectively as follows:
Figure BDA00031462696100000313
Figure BDA0003146269610000041
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003146269610000042
is composed of
Figure BDA0003146269610000043
The jth element of (1); b is the total number of buses in the system;
Figure BDA0003146269610000044
n is the total number of branches of the system;
Figure BDA0003146269610000045
is composed of
Figure BDA0003146269610000046
Row, column j;
Figure BDA0003146269610000047
qkthe number of output branches of the kth bus is;
(3) branch energy conversion coefficient matrix L
Figure BDA0003146269610000048
Wherein L (x, j) is the xth row and the jth column element of L; etai,xThe efficiency or energy efficiency ratio output to the branch x for the device i; l is belonged to Rn×nN is the total number of system branches;
(4) bus transfer relation matrix T
Figure BDA0003146269610000049
In the formula, T (k)1,k2) K of T1Line kth2A column element; t is belonged to Rb×bAnd b is the total bus number in the system.
According to the topology of FIG. 2, a matrix C,
Figure BDA00031462696100000410
L, T, the partial matrix is as follows:
Figure BDA00031462696100000411
Figure BDA00031462696100000412
Figure BDA00031462696100000413
Figure BDA0003146269610000051
Figure BDA0003146269610000052
5) according to the input equipment rated capacity and the equipment-input branch matrix C and the bus-input branch vector obtained in the step 4)
Figure BDA0003146269610000053
And bus-output branch matrix
Figure BDA0003146269610000054
Calculating the maximum energy supply capacity vector of all branches of the system when the equipment i fails one by one
Figure BDA0003146269610000055
Forming a maximum energy supply capacity matrix Z of all branches during equipment failuremax,endThe method comprises the following steps:
(5.1) calculating the capacity constraint vector V of all branches of the systemcThe method comprises the following steps:
(5.1.1) the system has m devices, n branches and b buses, wherein the m devices are convertedecStation, source apparatus msPlatform, energy storage device mesA stage; generating a device rated capacity vector according to the input device parameter information
Figure BDA0003146269610000056
And maximum stored energy vector of energy storage equipment
Figure BDA0003146269610000057
Is the rated capacity of the ith station of equipment,
Figure BDA0003146269610000058
is the maximum stored energy of the ith energy storage device;
(5.1.2) generating a source device branch capacity constraint vector
Figure BDA0003146269610000059
Figure BDA00031462696100000510
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00031462696100000511
is a vector
Figure BDA00031462696100000512
J is the output branch of the source device i;
Figure BDA00031462696100000513
is the rated capacity of the source device i;
(5.1.3) generating energy storage device branch capacity constraint vector
Figure BDA00031462696100000514
Figure BDA0003146269610000061
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003146269610000062
is a vector
Figure BDA0003146269610000063
J is the output branch of the energy storage device l;
Figure BDA0003146269610000064
the rated capacity of the energy storage device l;
(5.1.4) calculating the input branch capacity constraint vector of the conversion equipment
Figure BDA0003146269610000065
And output branch capacity constraint vector
Figure BDA0003146269610000066
Figure BDA0003146269610000067
Figure BDA0003146269610000068
Figure BDA0003146269610000069
In the formula, C is a device-input branch incidence matrix; srA device rated capacity vector; l is a branch energy conversion coefficient matrix;
(5.1.5) generating load branch capacity constraint vectors
Figure BDA00031462696100000610
Figure BDA00031462696100000611
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00031462696100000612
is a vector
Figure BDA00031462696100000613
J is a direct supply load branch on a bus k; pkThe direct supply load of the bus k is obtained;
(5.1.6) calculating capacity constraint vectors for all branches in the system:
Figure BDA00031462696100000614
in the formula, VcCapacity constraint vectors for all branches of the system;
Figure BDA00031462696100000615
a branch capacity constraint vector for the source device;
Figure BDA00031462696100000616
a branch capacity constraint vector of the energy storage equipment;
Figure BDA00031462696100000617
capacity constraint vectors of an input branch and an output branch of the conversion equipment are obtained;
Figure BDA00031462696100000618
a load branch capacity constraint vector;
(5.2) when the equipment i fails, V is matched according to the type of the equipment icIs corrected to obtain
Figure BDA00031462696100000619
The method comprises the following steps:
(5.2.1) if the plant i is a conversion plant, then the rated capacity vector S for the plantrAnd (5) correcting:
Figure BDA00031462696100000620
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00031462696100000621
for the corrected SrThe ith element;
the capacity constraint vector of the input branch of the conversion device is modified to be:
Figure BDA00031462696100000622
the capacity constraint vector of the output branch is modified as follows:
Figure BDA00031462696100000623
in the formula, C is a device-input branch incidence matrix; l is a branch energy conversion coefficient matrix;
(5.2.2) if the device i is the source device, then the output branch capacity constraint vector of the source device is applied
Figure BDA00031462696100000624
And (5) correcting:
Figure BDA00031462696100000625
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00031462696100000626
to be corrected
Figure BDA00031462696100000627
J is the output branch of the source device i;
(5.2.3) output branch capacity constraint vector for energy storage device
Figure BDA00031462696100000628
And (5) correcting:
if the device i is not an energy storage device, the output branch capacity constraint vector of the energy storage device
Figure BDA00031462696100000629
The correction is as follows:
Figure BDA00031462696100000630
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003146269610000071
to be corrected
Figure BDA0003146269610000072
Middle jlAn element, jlFor the output branch of the energy storage device l, Esc(l) For maximum storage of energy storage devices lThe energy of the gas is converted into the energy,
Figure BDA0003146269610000073
time for fault recovery for device i; m isesThe total number of energy storage devices in the system;
if the device i is an energy storage device, the output branch capacity constraint vector of the energy storage device
Figure BDA0003146269610000074
The correction is as follows:
Figure BDA0003146269610000075
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003146269610000076
to be corrected
Figure BDA0003146269610000077
Middle jiAn element, jiAn output branch of the energy storage device i;
(5.2.4) calculating the equipment capacity constraint vector of all branches of the system when the equipment i fails
Figure BDA0003146269610000078
Figure BDA0003146269610000079
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00031462696100000710
respectively carrying out equipment capacity constraint vectors of a source equipment output branch, an energy storage equipment output branch, a conversion equipment input branch and an output branch which are corrected when the equipment i fails;
for this embodiment, take the case of equipment failure, the equipment capacity of the branch is constrained by VcIs modified into
Figure BDA00031462696100000711
Figure BDA00031462696100000712
Figure BDA00031462696100000713
(5.3) calculating the maximum energy supply capacity vector of all branches of the system when the equipment i fails
Figure BDA00031462696100000714
The method comprises the following steps:
(5.3.1) defining the maximum energy supply capacity vector of the branch circuit when the equipment i fails
Figure BDA00031462696100000715
Order to
Figure BDA00031462696100000716
(5.3.2) let the number of output branches of the bus k be qkThen bus capacity allocation constraint vector of bus k output branch
Figure BDA00031462696100000717
Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA00031462696100000718
Figure BDA00031462696100000719
in the formula, | | · | | is zero for elements in the matrix which are smaller than zero;
Figure BDA00031462696100000720
the bus-input branch vector for bus k,
Figure BDA00031462696100000721
a bus-output branch matrix that is bus k;
Figure BDA00031462696100000722
the capacity constraint vectors of all branch equipment when the equipment i fails;
(5.3.3) calculating the maximum energy supply capacity vector of the output branch of the bus k when the equipment i fails
Figure BDA00031462696100000723
Figure BDA00031462696100000724
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00031462696100000725
a bus-output branch matrix that is bus k;
Figure BDA00031462696100000726
distributing constraint vectors for the bus capacity of the bus k output branch;
Figure BDA00031462696100000727
the capacity constraint vectors of all branch equipment when the equipment i fails;
(5.3.4) calculating the maximum energy supply capacity vector of the output branch of the subordinate device under the constraint of the maximum energy supply capacity of the k output branch of the bus when the device i fails
Figure BDA00031462696100000728
Figure BDA0003146269610000081
In the formula, L is a branch energy conversion coefficient matrix;
Figure BDA0003146269610000082
the maximum energy supply capacity vector is the output branch of the bus k when the equipment i fails;
(5.3.5) setting the current bus level as h, traversing all buses in the level, repeating the steps (5.3.2) to (5.3.4), and updating the maximum energy supply capacity vector of the branch after all buses in the level traverse
Figure BDA0003146269610000083
Figure BDA0003146269610000084
In the formula, omegahA bus set with the hierarchy h;
Figure BDA0003146269610000085
the maximum energy supply capacity vector is the output branch of the bus k when the equipment i fails;
Figure BDA0003146269610000086
the maximum energy supply capacity vector of the output branch of the lower-level equipment of the bus k when the equipment i is in fault is obtained;
(5.3.6) repeating the step (5.3.2) to the step (5.3.5), traversing all bus levels in the system, and calculating the maximum energy supply capacity vector of all branches of the system when the equipment i fails
Figure BDA0003146269610000087
Figure BDA0003146269610000088
Wherein H is the total number of bus bar levels in the system.
For the present embodiment, taking the bus (1) in the failure of the device (r) as an example, the load distribution constraint of the output branches 2, 3, 4, and 5 of the bus (1) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003146269610000089
Figure BDA00031462696100000810
the load distribution constraint of the output branch of the lower conversion equipment connected with the load distribution constraint is as follows:
Figure BDA00031462696100000811
after traversing all buses, the maximum energy supply capacity vector of all branches when the equipment is in fault can be calculated as follows:
Figure BDA00031462696100000812
(5.4) repeating the step (5.2) to the step (5.3), traversing all the equipment in the system, and obtaining the maximum energy supply capacity matrix of all the branches when the equipment fails
Figure BDA00031462696100000813
6) According to the maximum energy supply capacity matrix Z of the branch circuit when the equipment is in faultmax,endConsidering the restoration of the load after the fault and the transfer supply between buses, and establishing a bus residual energy supply capacity matrix F when the equipment is in faultABus transfer load matrix FBBus supply stop load matrix FC(ii) a The method comprises the following specific steps:
(6.1) bus residual energy supply capacity matrix FAAnd represents the residual energy supply capacity provided by the residual normal operation equipment or the start-up shutdown equipment after the equipment failure:
FA＝(Zmax,end)T·(R+)T (25)
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003146269610000091
the bus-input branch vector of the bus k, and b is the total number of buses in the system; zmax,endMaximum energy supply energy for branch circuit in equipment failureA force matrix;
(6.2) bus transfer load matrix FBAnd after the bus is subjected to the equipment fault, a plan is re-formulated by the regulation and control platform to issue an instruction, a load part for supplying and recovering supply is transferred through other load buses of the same type, and the energy supply interruption time of the part of load is the supply transfer time required by system scheduling:
FB＝min{||FA-P'||·T,||P'-FA||} (26)
in the formula, | | · | | is zero for elements in the matrix which are smaller than zero; t is a transfer relation matrix between buses; p' ═ 1]m×1·PTP is a bus load vector, and m is the total number of equipment;
(6.3) bus outage load matrix FCAfter the equipment fails, the supplied load part can be recovered only after the equipment is repaired, and the energy supply interruption time of the part of the load is the equipment repairing time;
FC＝||P'-(FA+FB)|| (27)
wherein, P' ═ 1]m×1·PTP is a bus load vector; m is the total number of the equipment;
7) according to matrix FA、FB、FCAnd the fault parameter vector lambda obtained in the step 3)d、UdCalculating the reliability index of each bus of the park comprehensive energy system, including the annual average supply-stop frequency index lambda of the busbAnnual average outage time index UbAnd the expected starvation index EENSbThe calculation formula is as follows:
λb＝λd·(FB∪FC) (28)
Figure BDA0003146269610000092
Figure BDA0003146269610000093
in the formula, λdIs the equipment failure rate vector; u shapedIs a deviceA fault repair time vector; t is topScheduling a transfer time for the fault; fA、FB、FCRespectively providing a bus residual energy supply capacity matrix, a bus transfer supply load matrix and a bus stop supply load matrix; p' ═ 1]m×1·PTP is a bus load vector, and m is the total number of equipment; the operator &representsan OR operation between matrices or vectors;
Figure BDA0003146269610000094
the Hadamard operator represents the multiplication of the corresponding position elements of the two matrixes; an element indicates that the corresponding position between two matrices of the same dimension is divided.
Taking the system in fig. 2 as an example, the calculated fault correlation matrix is shown in fig. 3, and the calculation results of the average outage time and the expected shortage amount index of the bus are shown in table 3.
TABLE 1 park Integrated energy System device parameters
Figure BDA0003146269610000095
Figure BDA0003146269610000101
TABLE 2 bus load of park comprehensive energy system
Figure BDA0003146269610000102
TABLE 3 reliability index of each bus of the park integrated energy system
Figure BDA0003146269610000103

Claims (6)

1. A reliability calculation method for a park integrated energy system based on a fault incidence matrix is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) for a given campus complex energy system, the following parameter information is input: equipment parameters including the type, number, rated capacity, power, and efficiency or energy efficiency ratio of each equipment in the system; system topology parameters including branch, equipment, bus connection relation and interconnection switch position; the system operation parameters comprise the load size and the load priority on each bus and the priority start-stop sequence of the equipment; system fault parameters including fault rate and fault repair time of each device, and system scheduling transfer time after fault;
2) searching equipment, a branch and a bus from source equipment by adopting a breadth-first search algorithm, and numbering the equipment, the branch and the bus according to a search sequence; when numbering is carried out on a plurality of output branches and equipment of the same type on the same bus, the output branches and the equipment are arranged from high to low according to the priority of branch loads or the priority start-stop sequence of the equipment; the buses are divided in a hierarchical mode, and from a source device, the hierarchy of each bus is increased by one level when energy flows through each bus;
3) arranging all equipment fault rates, fault repair time and bus loads according to the serial number sequence respectively, and establishing an equipment fault rate vector
Figure FDA0003146269600000011
Device failure repair time vector
Figure FDA0003146269600000012
Figure FDA0003146269600000013
And bus load column vector P ═ P1 P2 … Pk … Pb]TWhere m is the total number of devices, b is the total number of busbars in the system,
Figure FDA0003146269600000014
respectively representing the failure rate and the failure repair time of the device i; pkRepresenting the direct supply load on bus k;
4) according to the equipment parameters input in the step 1),System topology parameters and system operation parameters, and establishing a device-input branch incidence matrix C, and bus-input branch vectors of each bus
Figure FDA0003146269600000015
Bus-output branch matrix
Figure FDA0003146269600000016
A branch energy conversion coefficient matrix L and an inter-bus transfer relation matrix T;
5) according to the input equipment rated capacity and the equipment-input branch matrix C and the bus-input branch vector obtained in the step 4)
Figure FDA0003146269600000017
And bus-output branch matrix
Figure FDA0003146269600000018
Calculating the maximum energy supply capacity vector of all branches of the system when the equipment i fails one by one
Figure FDA0003146269600000019
Forming a maximum energy supply capacity matrix Z of all branches during equipment failuremax，end；
6) According to the maximum energy supply capacity matrix Z of the branch circuit when the equipment is in faultmax，endConsidering the restoration of the load after the fault and the transfer supply between buses, and establishing a bus residual energy supply capacity matrix F when the equipment is in faultABus transfer load matrix FBBus supply stop load matrix FC；
7) According to matrix FA、FB、FCAnd the fault parameter vector lambda obtained in the step 3)d、UdCalculating the reliability index of each bus of the park comprehensive energy system, including the annual average supply-stop frequency index lambda of the busbAnnual average outage time index UbAnd the expected starvation index EENSb。
2. The park integrated energy system reliability calculation method based on the fault correlation matrix according to claim 1, wherein the branch, bus and equipment meanings in the step 1) are as follows:
(1) branch circuit: the connecting device and the bus carry the input or output of electricity, cold and heat power; maximum energy supply capability of branch j
Figure FDA00031462696000000110
Wherein
Figure FDA00031462696000000111
Equipment capacity constraint for branch j;
Figure FDA00031462696000000112
allocating constraints for the bus capacity of branch j;
(2) bus bar: the energy flows of the electricity, cold and hot branches are collected and distributed by connecting the input branch with the superior equipment and connecting the output branch with the bus direct supply load or the subordinate equipment; all buses are mutually supplied through the interconnection switch; the level of the bus is determined by the number of buses through which the energy flow from the source equipment to the bus passes;
(3) the equipment specifically comprises the following types:
a source device: providing energy input for the system, and only connecting the output branch;
conversion equipment: the energy conversion in the system is realized, and one input branch and more than one output branch are connected;
an energy storage device: the electric, cold and heat energy storage is realized, and an input and output branch is shared; when the reliability of the system is calculated, the energy storage device only releases energy during the failure period of the device, and only one output branch is connected.
3. The method for calculating the reliability of the park integrated energy system based on the fault correlation matrix according to claim 1, wherein the step 4) is implemented by establishing a device-input branch correlation matrix C, and bus-input branch vectors of each bus
Figure FDA0003146269600000021
Bus-output branch matrix
Figure FDA0003146269600000022
The branch energy conversion coefficient matrix L and the inter-bus transfer relation matrix T have the following specific forms:
(1) device-input branch incidence matrix C:
Figure FDA0003146269600000023
wherein C (i, j) is the ith row and the jth column element of the matrix C; c is belonged to Rm×nM and n are respectively the total equipment number and branch number in the system;
(2) bus-input branch vector for bus k
Figure FDA0003146269600000024
Bus-output branch matrix
Figure FDA0003146269600000025
Respectively as follows:
Figure FDA0003146269600000026
Figure FDA0003146269600000027
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003146269600000028
is composed of
Figure FDA0003146269600000029
The jth element of (1); b is the total number of buses in the system;
Figure FDA00031462696000000210
n is the total number of branches of the system;
Figure FDA00031462696000000211
is composed of
Figure FDA00031462696000000212
Row, column j;
Figure FDA00031462696000000213
qkthe number of output branches of the kth bus is;
(3) branch energy conversion coefficient matrix L
Figure FDA00031462696000000214
Wherein L (x, j) is the xth row and the jth column element of L; etai，xThe efficiency or energy efficiency ratio output to the branch x for the device i; l is belonged to Rn ×nN is the total number of system branches;
(4) bus transfer relation matrix T
Figure FDA00031462696000000215
In the formula, T (k)1，k2) K of T1Line kth2A column element; t is belonged to Rb×bAnd b is the total bus number in the system.
4. The method for calculating the reliability of the park integrated energy system based on the fault correlation matrix according to claim 1, wherein the step 5) is used for forming a branch maximum energy supply capacity matrix Z when the equipment is in faultmax，endThe method comprises the following steps:
(5.1) calculating the capacity constraint vector V of all branches of the systemcComprises the following steps of;
(5.1.1) the system has m devices, n branches and b buses in total, wherein the buses are rotatedChemical equipment mecStation, source apparatus msPlatform, energy storage device mesA stage; generating a device rated capacity vector according to the input device parameter information
Figure FDA0003146269600000031
And maximum stored energy vector of energy storage equipment
Figure FDA0003146269600000032
Figure FDA0003146269600000033
Is the rated capacity of the ith station of equipment,
Figure FDA0003146269600000034
is the maximum stored energy of the ith energy storage device;
(5.1.2) generating a source device branch capacity constraint vector
Figure FDA0003146269600000035
Figure FDA0003146269600000036
Figure FDA0003146269600000037
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003146269600000038
is a vector
Figure FDA0003146269600000039
J is the output branch of the source device i;
Figure FDA00031462696000000310
is the rated capacity of the source device i;
(5.1.3) generating stored energyDevice branch capacity constraint vector
Figure FDA00031462696000000311
Figure FDA00031462696000000312
Figure FDA00031462696000000313
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA00031462696000000314
is a vector
Figure FDA00031462696000000315
J is the output branch of the energy storage device l;
Figure FDA00031462696000000316
the rated capacity of the energy storage device l;
(5.1.4) calculating the input branch capacity constraint vector of the conversion equipment
Figure FDA00031462696000000317
And output branch capacity constraint vector
Figure FDA00031462696000000318
Figure FDA00031462696000000319
Figure FDA00031462696000000320
Figure FDA00031462696000000321
Figure FDA00031462696000000322
In the formula, C is a device-input branch incidence matrix; srA device rated capacity vector; l is a branch energy conversion coefficient matrix;
(5.1.5) generating load branch capacity constraint vectors
Figure FDA00031462696000000323
Figure FDA00031462696000000324
Figure FDA00031462696000000325
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA00031462696000000326
is a vector
Figure FDA00031462696000000327
J is a direct supply load branch on a bus k; pkThe direct supply load of the bus k is obtained;
(5.1.6) calculating capacity constraint vectors for all branches in the system:
Figure FDA00031462696000000328
in the formula, VcCapacity constraint vectors for all branches of the system;
Figure FDA00031462696000000329
a branch capacity constraint vector for the source device;
Figure FDA00031462696000000330
a branch capacity constraint vector of the energy storage equipment;
Figure FDA00031462696000000331
capacity constraint vectors of an input branch and an output branch of the conversion equipment are obtained;
Figure FDA00031462696000000332
a load branch capacity constraint vector;
(5.2) when the equipment i fails, V is matched according to the type of the equipment icIs corrected to obtain
Figure FDA00031462696000000333
The method comprises the following steps:
(5.2.1) if the plant i is a conversion plant, then the rated capacity vector S for the plantrAnd (5) correcting:
Figure FDA00031462696000000334
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA00031462696000000335
for the corrected SrThe ith element;
the capacity constraint vector of the input branch of the conversion device is modified to be:
Figure FDA0003146269600000041
the capacity constraint vector of the output branch is modified as follows:
Figure FDA0003146269600000042
in the formula, C is a device-input branch incidence matrix; l is a branch energy conversion coefficient matrix;
(5.2.2) if the device i is the source device, then the output branch capacity constraint vector of the source device is applied
Figure FDA0003146269600000043
And (5) correcting:
Figure FDA0003146269600000044
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003146269600000045
to be corrected
Figure FDA0003146269600000046
J is the output branch of the source device i;
(5.2.3) output branch capacity constraint vector for energy storage device
Figure FDA0003146269600000047
A correction is made, wherein,
if the device i is not an energy storage device, the output branch capacity constraint vector of the energy storage device
Figure FDA0003146269600000048
The correction is as follows:
Figure FDA0003146269600000049
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA00031462696000000410
to be corrected
Figure FDA00031462696000000411
Middle jlAn element, jlFor the output branch of the energy storage device l, Esc(l) For the maximum stored energy of the energy storage device l,
Figure FDA00031462696000000412
time for fault recovery for device i; m isesThe total number of energy storage devices in the system;
if the device i is an energy storage device, the output branch capacity constraint vector of the energy storage device
Figure FDA00031462696000000413
The correction is as follows:
Figure FDA00031462696000000414
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA00031462696000000415
to be corrected
Figure FDA00031462696000000416
Middle jiAn element, jiAn output branch of the energy storage device i;
(5.2.4) calculating the equipment capacity constraint vector of all branches of the system when the equipment i fails
Figure FDA00031462696000000417
Figure FDA00031462696000000418
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA00031462696000000419
respectively carrying out equipment capacity constraint vectors of a source equipment output branch, an energy storage equipment output branch, a conversion equipment input branch and an output branch which are corrected when the equipment i fails;
(5.3) System ownership on failure of computing device iMaximum energy supply capacity vector of branch
Figure FDA00031462696000000420
The method comprises the following steps:
(5.3.1) defining the maximum energy supply capacity vector of the branch circuit when the equipment i fails
Figure FDA00031462696000000421
Order to
Figure FDA00031462696000000422
(5.3.2) let the number of output branches of the bus k be qkThen bus capacity allocation constraint vector of bus k output branch
Figure FDA00031462696000000423
Comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA00031462696000000424
Figure FDA00031462696000000425
in the formula, | | · | | is zero for elements in the matrix which are smaller than zero;
Figure FDA00031462696000000426
the bus bar of bus bar k-the input branch vector,
Figure FDA00031462696000000427
a bus-output branch matrix that is bus k;
Figure FDA00031462696000000428
the capacity constraint vectors of all branch equipment when the equipment i fails;
(5.3.3) calculating the maximum of the output branch of bus k at the time of failure of device iEnergy supply capacity vector
Figure FDA00031462696000000429
Figure FDA00031462696000000430
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA00031462696000000431
a bus-output branch matrix that is bus k;
Figure FDA00031462696000000432
distributing constraint vectors for the bus capacity of the bus k output branch;
Figure FDA0003146269600000051
the capacity constraint vectors of all branch equipment when the equipment i fails;
(5.3.4) calculating the maximum energy supply capacity vector of the output branch of the subordinate device under the constraint of the maximum energy supply capacity of the k output branch of the bus when the device i fails
Figure FDA0003146269600000052
Figure FDA0003146269600000053
In the formula, L is a branch energy conversion coefficient matrix;
Figure FDA0003146269600000054
the maximum energy supply capacity vector is the output branch of the bus k when the equipment i fails;
(5.3.5) setting the current bus level as h, traversing all buses in the level, repeating the steps from (5.3.2) to (5.3.4), and updating the maximum energy supply capacity vector of the branch after all buses in the level are traversed
Figure FDA0003146269600000055
Figure FDA0003146269600000056
In the formula, omegahA bus set with the grade h;
Figure FDA0003146269600000057
the maximum energy supply capacity vector is the output branch of the bus k when the equipment i fails;
Figure FDA0003146269600000058
the maximum energy supply capacity vector of the output branch of the lower-level equipment of the bus k when the equipment i is in fault is obtained;
(5.3.6) repeating the steps from (5.3.2) to (5.3.5), traversing all bus levels in the system, and calculating the maximum energy supply capacity vector of all branches of the system when the equipment i fails
Figure FDA0003146269600000059
Figure FDA00031462696000000510
In the formula, H is the total number of bus levels in the system;
and (5.4) repeating the steps from (5.2) to (5.3), traversing all the equipment in the system, and obtaining the maximum energy supply capacity matrix of all the branches when the equipment fails
Figure FDA00031462696000000511
5. The park integrated energy system reliability calculation method based on the fault correlation matrix according to claim 1, wherein the step 6) of establishing the matrix of the residual energy supply capacity of the bus when the equipment is in faultFABus transfer load matrix FBBus supply stop load matrix FCThe concrete form is as follows:
(6.1) bus residual energy supply capacity matrix FAAnd represents the residual energy supply capacity provided by the residual normal operation equipment or the start-up shutdown equipment after the equipment failure:
FA＝(Zmax，end)T·(R+)T (25)
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA00031462696000000512
Figure FDA00031462696000000513
the bus-input branch vector of the bus k, and b is the total number of buses in the system; zmax，endThe method comprises the following steps of (1) providing a maximum energy supply capacity matrix for a branch circuit when equipment fails;
(6.2) bus transfer load matrix FBAnd after the bus is subjected to the equipment fault, a plan is re-formulated by the regulation and control platform to issue an instruction, a load part for supplying and recovering supply is transferred through other load buses of the same type, and the energy supply interruption time of the part of load is the supply transfer time required by system scheduling:
FB＝min{||FA-P′||·T，||P′-FA||} (26)
in the formula, | | · | | is zero for elements in the matrix which are smaller than zero; t is a transfer relation matrix between buses; p' ═ 1]m×1·PTP is a bus load vector; m is the total number of the equipment;
(6.3) bus outage load matrix FCAfter the equipment fails, the supplied load part can be recovered only after the equipment is repaired, and the energy supply interruption time of the part of the load is the equipment repairing time;
FC＝||P′-(FA+FB)|| (27)
wherein, P' ═ 1]m×1·PTP is a bus load vector; m is the total number of the equipment;
6. the method for calculating the reliability of the park integrated energy system based on the fault correlation matrix as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step 7) is used for calculating the reliability index of each bus of the park integrated energy system, including annual average outage frequency λbIndex, annual average outage time index UbAnd the expected starvation index EENSbThe calculation formula is as follows:
λb＝λd·(FB∪FC) (28)
Figure FDA0003146269600000061
Figure FDA0003146269600000062
in the formula, λdIs the equipment failure rate vector; u shapedRepairing a time vector for the equipment fault; t is topScheduling a transfer time for the fault; fA、FB、FCRespectively providing a bus residual energy supply capacity matrix, a bus transfer supply load matrix and a bus stop supply load matrix; p' ═ 1]m×1·pTP is a bus load vector, and m is the total number of equipment; the operator &representsan OR operation between matrices or vectors;
Figure FDA0003146269600000063
the Hadamard operator represents the multiplication of the corresponding position elements of the two matrixes; an element indicates that the corresponding position between two matrices of the same dimension is divided.
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