CN113450161B - Aircraft and engine reference value measuring and calculating method adjusted according to maintenance state - Google Patents
Aircraft and engine reference value measuring and calculating method adjusted according to maintenance state Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a value measuring and calculating method, a system, electronic equipment and a storage medium of an aircraft, which are adjusted according to maintenance states, and relates to the field of aviation maintenance engineering technology and aviation asset value assessment, wherein the value measuring and calculating method comprises the steps of obtaining basic data of the aircraft and an engine, constructing a data matrix based on the basic data, and calculating reference values of the aircraft and the engine in an aircraft asset value assessment data measuring and calculating model, namely measuring and calculating the reference values of the aircraft and the engine at current and future time points by taking configuration and maintenance states as technical basis; based on the reference value measurement and calculation, secondary adjustment is performed according to main market constraint conditions, so that the market value range of a certain aircraft or engine is measured, and the evaluation result obtained through measurement and calculation by the method and the measurement model is always in high coincidence with the main international evaluation institution result.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of aviation maintenance engineering technology and aviation asset value evaluation, in particular to a method, a system, electronic equipment and a storage medium for measuring and calculating reference values of an aircraft and an engine, which are adjusted according to maintenance states.
Background
Directory prices for aircraft or engine assets range from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars; aircraft, engines, of considerable proportion and quantity, undergo temporary or permanent transfer and conversion of ownership as targets for transactions such as marketing, leasing, financing, mortgage, etc. throughout the life cycle. In the field of aviation finance, in an airplane leasing service and a financing service which take an airplane and an engine as transaction objects, value judgment and price calibration of the airplane and the engine are one of core elements closely focused by transaction parties.
The aircraft and the engine often still have higher value after being in service for many years, so that the need for value judgment is still existing no matter the aircraft and the engine enter the links of disposal and re-transaction or refitting, disassembly and the like. Scientific and accurate assessment and measurement of current and future values of an aircraft or engine are benchmarks and bases for trading arrangements such as purchase and sale, lease (including revenue measurement), mortgage, financing, and risk management, and even insurance. The price of an asset transaction is the most central quantifying carrier for the interests of the parties involved in the transaction based on value.
On the other hand, aircraft or engine assets have little variation in mainstream delivery prices for the same model or configuration of product, despite different discounts for purchasers and different purchase amounts and points in time. Meanwhile, the basic model of aircraft produced by limited suppliers is very limited against other industrial and consumer products under high technical barriers. Even though different purchaser configurations are configured differently, the basic model is the primary determinant of the price of the series of products in the same model. On this basis, the product configuration with the customized variation is a second important influencing factor, including manufacturer-defined airplane sub-models, engine options, option equipment, airplane cabin layout, interior trim, and the like. In general, the value and price of the sub model can be more accurately positioned in most cases by comparing the price of the basic model and then adjusting the price according to the configuration, the value is represented by the basic and inherent value of a single plane or a single engine, and the main stream price can be analogized to the initial value in a factory state.
Meanwhile, all the work done to maintain the performance, reliability and airworthiness of the aircraft system, components during the service of the aircraft may be broadly referred to as "Maintenance" which includes various forms of Check Inspection/Inspection/Maintenance of Maintenance/Repair/Repair deep Repair or Overhaul change of the aircraft, engine and subsystems and components and their documents
Replacement of components or systems, modification of Retrofit, etc. In these multiple levels of maintenance work, the aircraft/engine/components are periodically disassembled to a state of disassembled structural components and parts that are no longer disassembled or are docked to the final assembly stage of the production process, and are cleaned, inspected, repaired, handled or even replaced as necessary, and then reassembled, performance inspected, test flown, and delivered for use after effective recording and qualification inspection in a historic document. Such deep repairs are also known as "overhauls". It is distinguished from pre-flight/off-site, return/transit, daily/overnight/weekly checks that do not make a warehouse, and from periodic on-site operations such as troubleshooting (including alarming) and off-site checks that remove potential factors, which are rare or not required by most other industries. In order to ensure safety and reliability, airworthiness regulations require regular performance of such deep repair work on aircraft, engines, subsystems. Because such a deep repair work is forcibly required to be performed as soon as a specified Time elapses, a Time limit requirement concerning overhaul is called "Hard Time limit requirement"; in engineering, the consumption of the systems closely related to flight mainly depends on tiny damage accumulated along with the flight time, erosion, abrasion, stress impact and change in start-stop or landing, and component property performance change related to calendar time, and the hard time limit is required to be judged together according to the flight hours, the number of flight landing cycles and the calendar time limit, and three of the flight hours, the flight landing cycles and the calendar time limit or two of the systems with strong physical properties are generally judged first, and then the first-come-up reference is used as a simplified judgment basis in engineering application. Since civil aviation repair industry (MRO for short) in the market is a target development business oriented to international markets and limited models under the airworthiness standard system, the cost and price are approximately equivalent in the global scope.
Aircraft and engines are assets with very high technical content, the value of the assets naturally varies obviously with the difference of individual technical conditions, and the general asset value assessment method is difficult to directly use for value assessment of the aircraft or the engines. Such as cost methods, the target asset valuation value is obtained by resetting the cost deduction from various loss values. The method has the difficulty that: the loss deduction value is closely related to the use condition of each aircraft or each engine, the traditional freshness rate or the method for measuring the loss by using the use time is just to treat the loss and the reduction value of the aircraft or the engine by using the method surface of the equipment to be commonly used, and the judgment of the entity or the functional attenuation value of the entity can be wrong; the resulting evaluation value will be subject to large errors. Also for example, market law, which uses the recent trade prices of the same or similar assets on the market as a price standard for asset assessment, direct comparison and analogy analysis to estimate asset value. The method has the following difficulties: it is difficult to find an aircraft or engine of the same model with a very high degree of state approximation, and even if an asset with similar state is found, the trade time point and trade environment are often different, so that a lot of deviations can occur in the evaluation value. The operation of the aircraft and the engine has high industry threshold and industry individual difference, and the income rule is not easy to be used for evaluating the value of the assets to be evaluated.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to establish a method for measuring and calculating the reference value of an aircraft and an engine, which takes the technical state of the aircraft and the engine as independent variables, has higher accuracy and is independent of other evaluation institutions and adjusted according to maintenance states, thereby improving the measuring and calculating accuracy.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for measuring and calculating a reference value of an aircraft and an engine, which is adjusted according to a maintenance state, the method comprising:
obtaining basic data of an aircraft and an engine, wherein the basic data comprises: main stream factory price, configuration and configuration list and adjustment project of the basic model catalog price, basic configuration and special configuration of the airplane and the engine, actual factory price data of the asset to be tested, international main stream manufacturer maintenance price data of major maintenance event, and production date of the airplane and the engine; the number of flight hours of the new machine, the number of flight hours of the last overhaul, the number of landing cycles of the new machine, the number of landing cycles of the last overhaul and the service calendar life data;
based on the basic data, constructing a data matrix, and calculating the reference values of the aircraft and the engine in an aircraft asset value evaluation data calculation model, namely calculating the reference values of the aircraft and the engine at the current and future time points by taking the configuration and the maintenance state as technical basis;
Based on the reference value measurement and calculation, secondary adjustment is performed according to main market constraint conditions, so that the market value range of a certain aircraft or engine is measured.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a value measurement system for an aircraft adjusted according to a maintenance status, the value measurement system comprising:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring basic data of the aircraft and the engine; wherein the base data comprises: main stream factory price, configuration and configuration list and adjustment project of the basic model catalog price, basic configuration and special configuration of the airplane and the engine, actual factory price data of the asset to be tested, international main stream manufacturer maintenance price data of major maintenance event, and production date of the airplane and the engine; the number of flight hours of the new machine, the number of flight hours of the last overhaul, the number of landing cycles of the new machine, the number of landing cycles of the last overhaul and the service calendar life data;
the first calculation module constructs a data matrix based on the asset time-of-life data, and performs comparison screening according to rated time-of-life and hour cycle ratio given by MPD (maintenance planning file) by taking the basis of 'category selection with strong correlation of physical properties' and 'first arrival criterion'; selecting the time life number with the greatest consumption and the deepest influence;
The second calculation module is used for measuring the value adjustment value of each core single item in each major maintenance event and summing the value adjustment values to obtain a value accumulation adjustment value;
the third calculation module considers the condition of adding modification and the addition and subtraction items according to the rated theoretical values of the 'full life state' and the 'half life state' of the aircraft with the model, the configuration and the configuration characteristics, and then counts the accumulated adjustment values measured based on the time-life data to obtain the reference value of the single aircraft according to the adjustment of the maintenance state;
the fourth calculation module is used for considering the condition of modification and increasing and decreasing items according to the rated theoretical value of the 'full life state' of the engine with the model, the configuration and the configuration characteristics, and then counting the accumulated adjustment value measured based on the time-life data to obtain the reference value of the adjustment of the single engine according to the maintenance state;
and the adjustment module is used for adjusting the aircraft reference value and the engine reference value according to the market factor constraint condition to obtain a market value range.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, including:
a processor; a memory for storing processor-executable instructions;
wherein the processor implements the method described above by executing the executable instructions.
In a fourth aspect, embodiments of the present invention provide a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon computer instructions which when executed by a processor perform the steps of the above-described method.
Advantageous effects
The invention provides a value measuring and calculating method, a system, electronic equipment and a storage medium of an aircraft, which are adjusted according to maintenance states, and relates to the field of aviation maintenance engineering technology and aviation asset value assessment, wherein the value measuring and calculating method comprises the steps of obtaining basic data of the aircraft and an engine, constructing a data matrix based on the basic data, and calculating reference values of the aircraft and the engine in an aircraft asset value assessment data measuring and calculating model, namely measuring and calculating the reference values of the aircraft and the engine at current and future time points by taking configuration and maintenance states as technical basis; based on the reference value measurement and calculation, secondary adjustment is performed according to main market constraint conditions, so that the market value range of a certain aircraft or engine is measured, and the evaluation result obtained through measurement and calculation by the method and the measurement model is always in high coincidence with the main international evaluation institution result.
Drawings
For a clearer description of one or more embodiments of the present description or of the solutions of the prior art, the drawings that are necessary for the description of the embodiments or of the prior art will be briefly described, it being apparent that the drawings in the description that follow are only some of the embodiments described in the description, from which, for a person skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained without inventive faculty.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for measuring and calculating the value of an aircraft adjusted according to a maintenance status according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing steps of the method of step S40 in FIG. 1;
FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing steps of the method of step S40 in FIG. 1;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of a method for calculating the value of an aircraft adjusted for maintenance status in accordance with another embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic illustration of the value of an aircraft and engine as a function of a "zig-zag" curve;
FIG. 6 is a block diagram illustrating a value measurement system for an aircraft adjusted for maintenance status in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a flowchart illustrating the operation of the aircraft and engine reference value measurement system according to an embodiment of the present invention as adjusted to a maintenance condition;
fig. 8 is a block diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to enable a person skilled in the art to better understand the technical solutions in one or more embodiments of the present specification, the technical solutions in one or more embodiments of the present specification will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in one or more embodiments of the present specification, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present specification, not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by one or more embodiments of the present disclosure without inventive faculty, are intended to be within the scope of the present disclosure.
The Maintenance of an aircraft differs from that in the traditional sense, and all the work done to maintain the performance, reliability and airworthiness of the aircraft system, parts, can be broadly referred to as aircraft Maintenance, it includes various forms of Check Inspection/Inspection Maintenance/Repair/overhauing or Overhaul Modification/Replacement of components or systems, modification/Retrofit retrofitting, etc. of aircraft, engines and subsystems and components and their documents. In these multiple levels of maintenance work, the aircraft/engine/components are periodically disassembled to a state of disassembled structural components and parts that are no longer disassembled or are docked to the final assembly stage of the production process, and are cleaned, inspected, repaired, handled as necessary, or even replaced, and then reassembled, performance inspected, test flown, and delivered for use after effective recording, qualification inspection in a historic document. Such deep repairs are also known as overhauls.
The various systems of the aircraft are fully inspected and repaired, and sensitive and sometimes life-demanding components are adapted and replaced, theoretically restoring to the original or near-original reliability of the aircraft. Logically, in the event of high-value major maintenance of an aircraft in a life cycle, the time and life are cleared, the consumption in operation is recovered, and the value of the aircraft is returned to the maximum extent, namely, the maintenance recovery and the reference value of the aircraft and the engine are ensured.
The invention establishes a set of standard paths and methods for evaluating the aircraft asset reference value, which take the technical states of the aircraft and the engine as independent variables and have higher accuracy.
The invention is further described with reference to the following description and specific examples, taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings:
FIG. 1 illustrates a flow chart of a method for value measurement of an aircraft adjusted for maintenance status in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention; as shown in fig. 1, the value measurement method includes:
s20, acquiring basic data of an airplane and an engine, wherein the basic data comprise: main stream factory price, configuration and configuration list and adjustment project of the basic model catalog price, basic configuration and special configuration of the airplane and the engine, actual factory price data of the asset to be tested, international main stream manufacturer maintenance price data of major maintenance event, and production date of the airplane and the engine; the number of flight hours of the new machine, the number of flight hours of the last overhaul, the number of landing cycles of the new machine, the number of landing cycles of the last overhaul and the service calendar life data;
s40, constructing a data matrix based on the basic data, and calculating the reference values of the aircraft and the engine in an aircraft asset value evaluation data calculation model, namely calculating the reference values of the aircraft and the engine at the current and future time points by taking the configuration and the maintenance state as technical basis;
S60, carrying out secondary adjustment according to main market constraint conditions on the basis of reference value measurement and calculation, so as to measure the market value range of a certain aircraft or engine.
The value measuring and calculating method of the aircraft is adjusted according to the maintenance state, basic data of the aircraft and the engine are obtained through the value measuring and calculating method, a data matrix is constructed based on the basic data, and reference values of the aircraft and the engine are calculated in an aircraft asset value evaluation data measuring and calculating model, namely, the reference values of the aircraft and the engine at the current and future time points are measured and calculated by taking the configuration and the maintenance state as technical basis; based on the reference value measurement and calculation, secondary adjustment is performed according to main market constraint conditions, so that the market value range of a certain aircraft or engine is measured, and the evaluation result obtained by the measurement and calculation by the method has high matching degree with the result of a main international evaluation institution.
It should be noted that: the "reference value adjusted according to the maintenance status", "market value obtained by secondary adjustment considering the influence of market factors", "market trade price agreed by both supply and demand" are three different concepts. In the description of the present invention, benchmark value is the benchmark of market value, while price is a specific representation of value in a single or multiple transactions.
Specifically, as shown in fig. 2, constructing a data matrix based on the basic data, and calculating the reference values of the aircraft and the engine in the aircraft asset value evaluation data calculation model includes:
s401, acquiring basic data of an airplane and an engine by taking the navigable state of the system as a precondition;
s402, constructing a data matrix for the time-of-flight data, and performing data screening;
s403, based on the screened time and life data, selecting major maintenance events with the maintenance cost occupying absolute proportion, wherein the major maintenance events comprise structural maintenance, engine performance recovery and time and life part replacement, landing gear overhaul, auxiliary power unit performance recovery and deep repair of the machine body above the C level, calculating value adjustment change values for maintenance states corresponding to each major maintenance event, combining the value adjustment values with international mainstream manufacturer maintenance price data of the major maintenance event, measuring value adjustment values of each core item in each major maintenance event, and summing to obtain value accumulation adjustment values;
according to the rated theoretical value of the 'full life state' and the 'half life state' of the aircraft with model, configuration and configuration characteristics, the condition of modification and the increment and decrement items are considered, and then the accumulated adjustment value measured based on the time-of-day data is counted, so that the reference value of the single aircraft according to the maintenance state is obtained.
Firstly, three of 'flight hours, flight landing cycles and calendar deadlines' or two of the three which are strongly related to physical properties are judged, and then 'first-come-up standard' is used as a simplified judgment basis in engineering application. The three or the two related to each other mainly use 'first-come-to-first' as screening basis. For most parts, more use flying hour/landing cycles closely related to life and reliability with actual flight; and a usage calendar period having a high degree of association with a time, including a stop calendar period accumulation; all have influence, firstly, the first to the second is the right. Between the flight hours and the landing cycles, the MSG gives a standard hour cycle ratio, helps to further compare the 'first to second' determination of the two, namely, comparing the equivalent conversion of the number of hours and the cycle number which are inconsistent in the original unit, and taking the larger one as the arrived maintenance state. The hour cycle ratio expresses the hour value of the running duration of each landing aircraft and engine on average. The cycle ratio of the hour is high, which indicates that the flight time of the airplane or the engine is long (usually long distance) each time, and the cycle number of the corresponding structural parts such as the airplane body and the like subjected to pressure is lower than that of the standard hour; the value consumption of aircraft, engines, other life parts is based on the calculation of the number of flight hours; on the contrary, if the hour circulation ratio is low, which indicates that the airplane or the engine frequently takes off and land, the pressurization and depressurization circulation of the airplane and the slow running state of the engine are more, and the value consumption of the airplane and the engine is more, the value consumption is calculated according to the number of the take-off and landing circulation. The landing gear receives stronger impact force every time of landing, and the structural internal stress level is expanded and lifted along with the cycle times.
The Time limit requirement concerning overhaul is called "Hard Time limit requirement"; in engineering, the consumption of these flying systems is mainly determined by tiny damage accumulated along with the flight time, erosion, abrasion, stress impact and change in start-stop or landing, and component property performance change related to calendar time and day, and these hard time limits are required to be judged together according to the flight hours, the number of flying landing cycles and the calendar time limit, and the three or two with strong correlation of physical properties are usually taken, so that the "first to first" is used as a simplified judgment basis in engineering application.
Specifically, as shown in fig. 3, constructing an engine asset value evaluation data calculation model based on the basic data, calculating an engine reference value, and adjusting the engine reference value according to a maintenance state includes:
s601, acquiring basic data and time-of-flight data of an engine by taking a navigable state as a precondition;
s602, constructing a data matrix for the time-of-flight data, and performing data screening;
s603, calculating a value adjustment change value for maintenance states corresponding to the performance recovery of the engine and the replacement of the time and life parts based on the screened time and life data, and summing to obtain a value accumulation adjustment value;
S604, according to the rated theoretical value of the 'full life state' of the engine with model, configuration and configuration characteristics, taking the condition of modification and the increment and decrement items into consideration, and then counting the accumulated adjustment value measured based on the time-of-life data to obtain the reference value of the adjustment of the single engine according to the maintenance state.
Further, as shown in fig. 4, the value measurement method further includes,
and S80, if the asset transaction is additionally leased, the cash flow is attached to calculate the value of the asset package with the lease by using a profit method.
Specifically, the major repair event includes:
structural inspection and maintenance of the fuselage above class C, engine performance restoration and replacement of life parts, gear major repair, auxiliary power unit performance restoration, and deep repair involving replacement of life parts.
Major maintenance events specifically refer to structural inspection and maintenance of the aircraft fuselage at class C and above, engine performance recovery PR (Performance Restoration) and replacement of life LLP (Life Limited Parts); major repairs of landing gear, performance recovery and deep repair of auxiliary power units, and reverse major repairs, but the former four occupy extremely high rates in terms of cost; in the high-value major maintenance event of the aircraft in the life cycle, the time and the life are cleared, the consumption in the operation is recovered, the value of the aircraft is returned to the maximum degree, namely the maintenance recovery and the reference value of the aircraft and the engine are ensured.
Specifically, a value adjustment change value is calculated for the maintenance state corresponding to each major maintenance event based on the filtered time-of-day data, and the value adjustment reference value of each major maintenance event measured through accumulation includes:
calculating the percentage DeltaAV% of consumption corresponding to the major maintenance event based on the data meeting the preset condition to obtain an adjusted value AV of the aircraft or the engine corresponding to the current maintenance state;
ΔAV＝ΔAV％*EventCost
wherein FH is the number of flight hours; FC is the number of landing cycles in flight; MO is calendar deadline calculated in calendar months; TSO is the number of flight hours since the last overhaul given a time of day; TBO is overhaul interval time; after comparing and screening with rated time and hour cycle ratio given by MPD (maintenance planning file), the same time and life data with maximum consumption and the deepest influence are selected by accumulating consumption TSO and given total TBO based on 'first come'.
Adjusted value AV = full time life state value assuming that the time life of the current maintenance state point was "cleared" —the current maintenance state corresponds to the time life consumption Δav
AV＝Full Life-ΔAV
AV＝Full Life-∑ΔAV
ΔAV’＝(ΔAV％-50％)*Event Cost
AV＝Half Life-∑ΔAV’
AV is also obtained by measuring the deviation from Half Life adjustment value Δav ' using the ratio Δav '% (Δav ' = Σv% -50%) of the deviation (Half Life). The value of the deviation from the full life state is the same as the value of the deviation from the half life state in the deviating sense.
And (3) injection: FH, number of Flying hours of Flying Hour;
FC is the number of landing cycles of Flying;
MO Calendar deadlines calculated by Calendar Month in Calendar Month;
FH/FC: hour cycle ratio;
TSO Time Since Overhaul number of flight hours since last overhaul given time of day;
TBO Time Between Overhaul overhaul Interval (which can be counted by FH/FC/MO);
thus, as shown in FIG. 5, the value of the aircraft and engine generally follows a "saw tooth" curve, with the saw tooth gradually decreasing as a function of wing time, then steeply rising multiple times during a significant maintenance event, then continuing to gradually "consume" the value in use, then "returning" to the end of economic life.
Starting point of the sawtooth curve: the initial value of the aircraft or engine is replaced by the main stream factory price of the model with the same configuration or configuration;
the upper edge of the sawtooth curve is provided with positioning points: the residual value after the value recovery is cleared when the economic life later period is assumed;
the upper edge of the saw tooth is a connecting line between the initial value and the residual value after the value recovery of the life zero clearing value when the assumption is made at the later stage of the economic service life; is a value link for the assumed "full time life state".
The interval period of the saw teeth is the interval period between major maintenance events;
Saw tooth steep rise value: the cost of significant maintenance events;
the lower edge of the sawtooth curve is provided with a terminal positioning point: assume a plurality of points of value in the event that the wing consumes a full time of life; the cost of all major maintenance events can be obtained by deducting the residual value after the recovery of the time-service life zero clearing mechanism; the method can also be used for taking the reference transaction price of the aircraft and the engine to be scrapped and disassembled in the final service period, and can be used for taking the reference transaction price of the aircraft and the engine to be scrapped and disassembled in the final service period according to the experience value when the condition is not met, for example, 15-20% of the original purchase value under the condition of a calendar period of 20 years and 10% of the original purchase value under the condition of 25 years, and the influence on the value evaluation developed by the aircraft and the engine in the early and middle stages of the economic service life is not great.
Since the value of the deviation from the full-Life state is the same as the value of the deviation from the Half-Life state in the sense of the deviation, i.e. the ratio Δav '% (Δav '% =Δav% -50%) of the deviation (Half Life) is used to measure the deviation from the Half-Life adjustment value Δav ', also giving AV. If the half-life deviation adjustment value is calculated, the upper edge of the saw tooth is used as derivative, and the upper edge of the saw tooth is the half of the half-life value connecting line in the statistical sense and the half-life zero clearing value restoring value when the half-life is performed, and is the derivative value of the assumed half-life state value connecting line.
Based on the sum of the relative full life and half life deviation Sigma delta AV and accumulated consumption value Sigma delta AV 'in major maintenance event, on the basis of calculating half life reference value by using a 20-year or 25-year linear fold method to obtain full life reference value or value attenuation percentage regression method, the accumulated deviation values Sigma delta AV and Sigma delta AV' are deducted by using different full life/half life reference value data, and the reference value adjusted according to maintenance state under different path reference value items is calculated.
The value of the same-type same-configuration same-age aircraft and the engine with the time and the service life being 'cleared' is completely recovered. In the process before and after recovery, the value of the engineering application is consumed along with the consumption of the wing, and the consumption of the flying hours/circulation number/calendar period, and the residual engineering application value is reduced along with the reduction of the flying hours/circulation number/calendar period; if the value change during this period is linearly approximated, the value change is approximated as a saw-tooth change with the major repair event, i.e., the lifetime is "cleared" as the time spent by the deep repair occurs when the major repair event occurs; aircraft systems accumulate millions of parts, deep repair work is extended for parts and systems that are sometimes required for life, some of which are not time-dependent (e.g., use-consuming over time, but performance insensitive non-load bearing parts, cabin service equipment, etc.) and are depreciated, and therefore are of less value than the fully new state. Compared with a complete machine with a service life longer than 25 years, the cost is high for structural inspection and repair of C grade or more. The engine is essentially the same, and the slight difference is that the original manufacturer specially defines the time service parts (Life Limited Parts, LLP, mainly including high-pressure compressor, partial medium-pressure compressor, low-pressure compressor, high-pressure turbine disk and low-pressure turbine disk) required to be replaced in deep maintenance, after the engine is reassembled, a series of works such as balancing, bench test run, thrust and temperature margin adjustment, fuel oil and lubricating oil consumption verification and the like are required, and almost the whole engine is deeply overhauled, and the value is restored to be very close to that of the brand new delivery.
Specifically, the calculating the value adjustment change value for the maintenance state corresponding to the performance recovery and the replacement of the life part of the engine, and summing to obtain the value accumulation adjustment value includes:
calculating a performance recovery and percentage of deviation of time-of-life part replacement from full and half-lives based on the screened time-of-life data;
the amount of the relative full and half life departure of the engine asset and the cumulative adjustment (departure) values ΣΔav and ΣΔav' of the performance recovery and the replacement of the time-service piece are obtained based on the performance recovery and time-service piece replacement price data.
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the application also provides an aircraft and engine reference value measuring and calculating system adjusted according to the maintenance state, which can be used for realizing the method described in the embodiment, and the embodiment is described below. Because the principle of solving the problem of the aircraft and engine reference value measuring and calculating system adjusted according to the maintenance state is similar to that of an aircraft and engine reference value measuring and calculating method adjusted according to the maintenance state, the implementation of the aircraft and engine reference value measuring and calculating system adjusted according to the maintenance state can be referred to the implementation of an aircraft and engine reference value measuring and calculating method adjusted according to the maintenance state, and repeated parts are omitted. As used below, the term "unit" or "module" may be a combination of software and/or hardware that implements the intended function. While the system described in the following embodiments is preferably implemented in software, implementation in hardware, or a combination of software and hardware, is also possible and contemplated.
As shown in fig. 6, the value measurement system includes:
the data acquisition module 20 is configured to acquire asset data of an aircraft and an engine, where the asset data includes: the method comprises the following steps of catalogue prices of basic models of airplanes and engines, main stream delivery prices, configuration and configuration lists, adjustment items, actual delivery price data, international main stream manufacturer maintenance price data of major maintenance events and production dates of airplanes and engines; the number of flight hours of the self-repairing machine (the number of running hours of the engine), the number of flight hours given by the last overhaul (the number of running hours of the engine), the number of landing cycles of the self-repairing machine (the number of start-stop cycles of the engine), the number of landing cycles given by the last overhaul (the number of start-stop cycles of the engine) and the service calendar life data;
the first calculation module 40 constructs a data matrix based on the asset time-of-life data, and performs comparison screening according to rated time-of-life and hour cycle ratio given by MPD (maintenance planning file) on the basis of the category selection of strong correlation of physical properties and the taking basis of first arrival criterion; the time-life number with the greatest consumption and the deepest influence is selected.
The second calculation module 60 measures the value adjustment value of each core item at each significant maintenance event and sums the value adjustment values to obtain a value accumulation adjustment value.
The third calculation module 80 considers the condition of modification and the addition and subtraction terms according to the rated theoretical values of the aircraft 'full life state' and 'half life state' with model, configuration and configuration characteristics, and then counts the cumulative adjustment values measured based on the time-of-day data to obtain the reference value of the single aircraft according to the maintenance state.
The fourth calculation module 100 considers the condition of modification and the addition and subtraction items according to the rated theoretical value of the 'full life state' of the engine with model, configuration and configuration characteristics, and then counts the cumulative adjustment value measured based on the time-of-life data to obtain the reference value of the adjustment of the single engine according to the maintenance state.
The operational flow diagram of the aircraft and engine reference value measurement system adjusted for maintenance conditions, as shown in figure 7,
the workflow of the aircraft and engine reference value measurement system adjusted according to the maintenance state comprises:
s1, acquiring configuration and maintenance state data of an airplane or an engine;
s2, inputting configuration and maintenance state data into a value evaluation data model;
s3, measuring the reference value of each current and future time point by using a data model and software and hardware;
s4, using a software system to arrange a table, and drawing a value trend graph;
S5, introducing market constraint conditions for secondary adjustment, and measuring a market value range value;
for an aircraft: the basic data input data comprise the model number, the age (production date) of the aircraft, the number of corresponding engines, and the TSN, TSO, TSO, CSO data of the aircraft body, the engines (comprising each performance recovery and time service part), the landing gear and the auxiliary power unit which have hard time limit requirements and have significant influence on the value change of the aircraft by major maintenance events are found according to the actual search, and the data of 'first-come-right' is judged according to the condition of the hour circulation ratio. On the other hand, the price data of the aircraft when leaving the factory and the cost data of the major maintenance events of the main components are obtained, and meanwhile, the value difference data of the full-life state and the half-life state can be positioned.
The data under the specific maintenance state is analyzed and calculated, and the consumption conditions of the machine body, the engine (comprising each performance recovery and time service part), the landing gear and the auxiliary power unit are respectively calculated, wherein the consumption conditions are the percentage of each deviation from the full life to the half life, the sum of each deviation from the full life to the half life (the expansion factors can be added and considered) and the accumulated consumption sum, namely sigma delta AV and sigma delta AV'. Based on the whole life reference value calculated by 20 years/25 years linear fold method or the half life reference value calculated by value attenuation percentage regression method, the reference value adjusted according to maintenance state under different path reference value items can be calculated by subtracting accumulated deviation values sigma delta AV and sigma delta AV' from different whole life/half life reference value data.
Calculating the relative full-life/half-life reference value deviation amount according to the maintenance adjustment data in the specific maintenance state, thereby calculating the reference value adjusted according to the maintenance state under the reference value items of different paths; the method can also simulate the deviation of the maintenance adjustment value relative to the full-life/half-life reference value under each ideal maintenance state under the condition of carrying out maintenance and repair of the standard period according to the maintenance schedule file of the aircraft and the engine, and then predict the influence of routine maintenance adjustment value of industry on the maintenance value adjustment value according to the general inflation level, thereby obtaining the adjusted reference value of each time point in the life period of the aircraft.
Drawing the time points into a graph, wherein in the graph drawn by the model, the abscissa interval of the adjusted reference value sawtooth curve is year, and if further encryption is carried out, the rising section of the sawtooth curve is still in a steep rise rather than a gradual rise form; and the periodic irregularities are a result of overlapping periods of multiple significant maintenance events.
For an engine: the input data includes engine model number, age (date of manufacture), number of engines fitted to the aircraft noted, then data of LLP part TSN, TSO, TSO, CSO with hard time limit requirement and major maintenance event is found, and the data of "first come" is judged according to the condition of the hour cycle ratio (because the engine is very sensitive to flying hours and the cycle number and relatively insensitive to the time limit requirement of calendar time limit). It should be noted that, the lifetime given to the LLPs is usually grouped, and the complete set of LLPs is not necessarily replaced or safely replaced every time the LLPs are taken into service, in particular, the result of comprehensive balance of service plan files and time points of engine in service, but because the engine in service is sensitive to flight safety, the LLPs are still replaced in advance by airlines generally due to contract negotiations with service manufacturers, dismounting the engines from the aircraft, and test runs.
Calculating a performance recovery and percentage deviation of LLP from full and half life using the obtained maintenance status data; after LLP price data obtained through real collection or theoretical deduction (the OEM manufacturer will actually price up to 5% to 7% of LLP parts each year), the amount and performance recovery of the relative full and half life deviations of the engine assets and the LLP cumulative deviations, i.e., ΣΔAV and ΣΔAV', can be obtained. After the value curve is drawn by the drawing unit 603, the adjusted reference value data of the engine in the specific maintenance state can be conveniently positioned by using the abscissa maintenance state.
The market value influencing factors are classified, and the market value influencing factors comprise technical related factors and non-technical related factors; a preliminary classification is made here:
the technology-related factors include: (a) The location of the model in the model's production-decommissioning lifecycle; (b) The maintenance management factor [ especially PMA/DER (parts manufacturing approval/engineering commission representative repair) use case, PBH (Power by Hour hours package service), is a paid service of after-market, and a manufacturer or a specific service business negotiates with an operator to agree on a charging service of each level of maintenance rate based on flying hours and cycle numbers as a counting base, abbreviated as PBH, and the Hour package is effectively the "cost sharing" effect of maintenance management on value. Actual repair maintenance documentation, actual damage conditions, etc. (c) actual operating factors [ e.g., thrust reducing arrangement, exhaust temperature margin control, operating environment pollution level, etc. ]. Among the technical factors affecting the market value, the one having a great influence on the change in value is still based on the model and the maintenance state.
Non-technology related factors include: (a) Basic level of economic growth and development of supply and demand conditions in aviation markets; (b) fuel price volatility and trend; (c) speed, expectations, including availability, of fleet updates; (d) a distention condition and expectation; (e) manufacturer production and delivery status; (f) Financial and trade policies and variations anticipate, (g) war, major security events, major hygiene events, strikes, nuisances, etc. (h) lease terms; (i) Alternative or substitution is anticipated for new types of vehicles to appear, etc.
Fig. 8 is a block diagram of the structure of an electronic device of an embodiment of the present invention, which includes, as shown in fig. 8, a Central Processing Unit (CPU) 801 that can execute various appropriate actions and processes according to a program stored in a Read Only Memory (ROM) 802 or a program loaded from a storage section 808 into a Random Access Memory (RAM) 803. In the RAM 803, various programs and data required for system operation are also stored. The CPU 801, ROM 802, and RAM 803 are connected to each other by a bus 804. An input/output (I/O) interface 805 is also connected to the bus 804.
The following components are connected to the I/O interface 805: an input portion 806 including a keyboard, mouse, etc.; an output portion 807 including a display such as a Cathode Ray Tube (CRT), a Liquid Crystal Display (LCD), and a speaker; a storage section 808 including a hard disk or the like; and a communication section 809 including a network interface card such as a LAN card, a modem, or the like. The communication section 809 performs communication processing via a network such as the internet. The drive 810 is also connected to the I/O interface 805 as needed. A removable medium 811 such as a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a magneto-optical disk, a semiconductor memory, or the like is mounted on the drive 810 as needed so that a computer program read out therefrom is mounted into the storage section 808 as needed.
The flowcharts and block diagrams in the figures illustrate the architecture, functionality, and operation of possible implementations of systems, methods and computer program products according to various embodiments of the present application. In this regard, each block in the flowchart or block diagrams may represent a module, segment, or portion of code, which comprises one or more executable instructions for implementing the specified logical function(s). It should also be noted that, in some alternative implementations, the functions noted in the block may occur out of the order noted in the figures. For example, two blocks shown in succession may, in fact, be executed substantially concurrently, or the blocks may sometimes be executed in the reverse order, depending upon the functionality involved. It will also be noted that each block of the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, and combinations of blocks in the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, can be implemented by special purpose hardware-based systems which perform the specified functions or acts, or combinations of special purpose hardware and computer instructions.
The present application also provides a computer readable storage medium, which may be a computer readable storage medium included in the aircraft and engine reference value measurement system adjusted according to the maintenance status in the above embodiment; or may be a computer-readable storage medium, alone, that is not incorporated into an electronic device. The computer readable storage medium stores one or more programs for use by one or more processors in performing the aircraft and engine baseline value measurement method adjusted for maintenance conditions described in the present application.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical scheme described in the foregoing embodiments can be modified or some or all of the technical features thereof can be replaced by equivalents; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit of the invention.
Claims (8)
1. The method for measuring and calculating the reference value of the aircraft and the engine adjusted according to the maintenance state is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
obtaining basic data of an aircraft and an engine, wherein the basic data comprises: main stream factory price, configuration and configuration list and adjustment project of the basic model catalog price, basic configuration and special configuration of the airplane and the engine, actual factory price data of the asset to be tested, international main stream manufacturer maintenance price data of major maintenance event, and production date of the airplane and the engine; the number of flight hours of the new machine, the number of flight hours of the last overhaul, the number of landing cycles of the new machine, the number of landing cycles of the last overhaul and the service calendar life data;
Based on the basic data, constructing a data matrix, and calculating the reference values of the aircraft and the engine in an aircraft asset value evaluation data calculation model, namely calculating the reference values of the aircraft and the engine at the current and future time points by taking the configuration and the maintenance state as technical basis;
based on the reference value measurement and calculation, secondary adjustment is carried out according to main market constraint conditions, so that the market value range of a certain aircraft or engine is measured;
based on the basic data, constructing a data matrix, and calculating the reference values of the aircraft and the engine in an aircraft asset value evaluation data measuring and calculating model, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
taking the navigable state of the system as a precondition to acquire basic data and time-of-flight data of the aircraft and the engine;
constructing a data matrix for the time-of-day data, and performing data screening;
based on the screened time-service data, selecting major maintenance events with the maintenance cost occupying absolute proportion, including structural overhaul of more than the C level of the machine body, engine performance recovery, time-service part replacement, landing gear overhaul, auxiliary power unit performance recovery and deep repair, calculating value adjustment change values for maintenance states corresponding to each major maintenance event, combining the value adjustment values of each core item in each major maintenance event with international mainstream manufacturer maintenance price data of the major maintenance event, and summing to obtain value accumulation adjustment values;
According to the rated theoretical value of the aircraft 'full life state' and 'half life state' with model, configuration and configuration characteristics, the condition of modification and addition and subtraction items are considered, and then the accumulated adjustment value measured based on time-of-life data is counted, so that the reference value of the single aircraft according to maintenance state adjustment is obtained;
calculating a value adjustment change value for the maintenance state corresponding to each major maintenance event based on the filtered time-of-day data, wherein the value adjustment reference value of each major maintenance event measured through accumulation comprises:
calculating the percentage delta AV of consumption corresponding to the major maintenance event based on the data meeting the preset condition to obtain the value AV of the aircraft or the engine adjusted corresponding to the current maintenance state;
ΔAV＝ΔAV％*EventCost；
wherein FH is the number of flight hours; FC is the number of landing cycles in flight; MO is calendar deadline calculated in calendar months; TSO is the number of flight hours since the last overhaul given a time of day; TBO is overhaul interval time; after comparing and screening with the rated time life and hour cycle ratio given by MPD, the same time life data with the largest consumption and the deepest influence is selected by accumulating the consumption TSO and the given total TBO based on 'first come';
based on the relative full life deviation accumulated adjustment value Sigma delta AV and the half life deviation accumulated adjustment value Sigma delta AV 'of each major maintenance event, delta AV'% =delta AV% -50%, delta AV '% is the proportion of half life deviation, on the basis of calculating the half life reference value by a 20-year or 25-year linear fold method, calculating the reference value adjusted according to the maintenance state under different paths, namely the deviation attenuation factor coefficient, by using different full life/half life value data to deduct the accumulated adjustment values Sigma delta AV and Sigma delta AV', and then obtaining the adjusted reference value corresponding to all major maintenance events under the current maintenance state of the aircraft;
Adjusted value AV = full time state value assuming the current maintenance state time point "zero" of the time of day-full life deviation adjustment value AV:
AV＝Full Life-ΔAV
AV＝Full Life-∑ΔAV；
using the ratio of the half-life offset Δav '% to the half-life offset adjustment value Δav', AV is also obtained:
AV’＝(△AV％-50％)*Event Cost；
AV＝Half Life-∑△AV’。
2. the value measurement method according to claim 1, wherein constructing an engine asset value evaluation data measurement model based on the base data, calculating an engine reference value, and adjusting the engine reference value in accordance with a maintenance state comprises:
taking the navigable state as a precondition to acquire basic data and time-of-flight data of the engine;
constructing a data matrix for the time-of-day data, and performing data screening;
calculating a value adjustment change value for the maintenance state corresponding to the engine performance recovery and the time and life part replacement based on the screened time and life data, and summing to obtain a value accumulation adjustment value;
according to the rated theoretical value of the 'full life state' of the engine with model, configuration and configuration characteristics, the condition of modification and the increment and decrement are considered, and then the accumulated adjustment value measured based on the time and life data is counted, so that the reference value of the single engine according to the adjustment of the maintenance state is obtained.
3. The value measurement method of claim 2, further comprising calculating the value of the rented asset pack by cash flow discounting with a revenue method in addition to the lease if the asset is traded for additional lease.
4. The value measurement method of claim 2, wherein the significant maintenance event comprises:
structural inspection and maintenance of the fuselage above class C, engine performance restoration and replacement of life parts, gear major repair, auxiliary power unit performance restoration, and deep repair involving replacement of life parts.
5. The value measurement method according to claim 2, wherein calculating the value adjustment change value for the maintenance state corresponding to the engine performance recovery and the time-service-part replacement, and summing up the value adjustment value, includes:
calculating a performance recovery and percentage of deviation of time-of-life part replacement from full and half-lives based on the screened time-of-life data;
the cumulative adjustment values ΣΔav and ΣΔav' for the performance recovery and time-to-life part replacement are obtained based on the performance recovery and time-to-life part replacement price data for the amounts of the relative full and half-life deviations of the engine asset.
6. A value measurement system for an aircraft adjusted for maintenance conditions, the value measurement system comprising:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring basic data of the aircraft and the engine; wherein the base data comprises: main stream factory price, configuration and configuration list and adjustment project of the basic model catalog price, basic configuration and special configuration of the airplane and the engine, actual factory price data of the asset to be tested, international main stream manufacturer maintenance price data of major maintenance event, and production date of the airplane and the engine; the number of flight hours of the new machine, the number of flight hours of the last overhaul, the number of landing cycles of the new machine, the number of landing cycles of the last overhaul and the service calendar life data;
The first calculation module constructs a data matrix based on the asset time-of-life data, and performs comparison screening according to rated time-of-life and hour cycle ratio given by MPD (maintenance planning file) by taking the basis of 'category selection with strong correlation of physical properties' and 'first arrival criterion'; selecting the time and life data with the greatest consumption and the deepest influence;
the second calculation module is used for measuring the value adjustment value of each core single item in each major maintenance event and summing the value adjustment values to obtain a value accumulation adjustment value;
the third calculation module considers the condition of adding modification and the addition and subtraction items according to the rated theoretical values of the 'full life state' and the 'half life state' of the aircraft with the model, the configuration and the configuration characteristics, and then counts the accumulated adjustment values measured based on the time-life data to obtain the reference value of the single aircraft according to the adjustment of the maintenance state;
the fourth calculation module is used for considering the condition of modification and increasing and decreasing items according to the rated theoretical value of the 'full life state' of the engine with the model, the configuration and the configuration characteristics, and then counting the accumulated adjustment value measured based on the time-life data to obtain the reference value of the adjustment of the single engine according to the maintenance state;
the adjustment module is used for adjusting the aircraft reference value and the engine reference value according to the market factor constraint condition to obtain a market value range;
The first calculation module is further configured to calculate a value adjustment change value for a maintenance state corresponding to each major maintenance event based on the filtered time-of-day data, and the accumulated value adjustment reference value of each major maintenance event measured includes:
calculating the percentage delta AV of consumption corresponding to the major maintenance event based on the data meeting the preset condition to obtain the value AV of the aircraft or the engine adjusted corresponding to the current maintenance state;
ΔAV＝ΔAV％*EventCost；
wherein FH is the number of flight hours; FC is the number of landing cycles in flight; MO is calendar deadline calculated in calendar months; TSO is the number of flight hours since the last overhaul given a time of day; TBO is overhaul interval time; after comparing and screening with the rated time life and hour cycle ratio given by MPD, the same time life data with the largest consumption and the deepest influence is selected by accumulating the consumption TSO and the given total TBO based on 'first come';
based on the relative full life deviation accumulated adjustment value Sigma delta AV and the half life deviation accumulated adjustment value Sigma delta AV 'of each major maintenance event, delta AV'% =delta AV% -50%, delta AV '% is the proportion of half life deviation, on the basis of calculating the half life reference value by a 20-year or 25-year linear fold method, calculating the reference value adjusted according to the maintenance state under different paths, namely the deviation attenuation factor coefficient, by using different full life/half life value data to deduct the accumulated adjustment values Sigma delta AV and Sigma delta AV', and then obtaining the adjusted reference value corresponding to all major maintenance events under the current maintenance state of the aircraft;
Adjusted value AV = full time state value assuming the current maintenance state time point "zero" of the time of day-full life deviation adjustment value AV:
AV＝Full Life-ΔAV
AV＝Full Life-∑ΔAV；
using the ratio of the half-life offset Δav '% to the half-life offset adjustment value Δav', AV is also obtained:
AV’＝(△AV％-50％)*Event Cost；
AV＝Half Life-∑ΔAV’。
7. an electronic device, comprising:
a processor; a memory for storing processor-executable instructions;
wherein the processor is configured to implement the method of any of claims 1-5 by executing the executable instructions.
8. A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon computer instructions which, when executed by a processor, implement the steps of the method of any of claims 1-5.
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