CN113435631A - Flood forecasting method and system, readable storage medium and computing device - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a flood forecasting method, a flood forecasting system, a readable storage medium and computing equipment.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a flood forecasting method, a flood forecasting system, a readable storage medium and computing equipment, and belongs to the field of reservoir scheduling.
Background
China is located on the west coast of the Pacific, the region is wide, the terrain is complex, and the continental monsoon climate is very obvious, so that the two characteristics of uneven distribution of water resource regions and time course change are caused. The precipitation quantity decreases from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, and the precipitation quantity can be divided into five regions of rainy, humid, semi-arid and arid zones in sequence.
The water and soil resource imbalance phenomenon in China is caused because the regional distribution of the precipitation is very uneven, the flow field of the Yangtze river and the cultivated land in the south of the Yangtze river only account for 36 percent of the whole country, and the water resource amount accounts for 80 percent of the whole country; in the three watersheds of yellow river, Huai river and sea, the water resource amount only accounts for 8 percent of the whole country, the cultivated land accounts for 40 percent of the whole country, and the water and soil resources have very different differences.
In the wavy plain areas in the midwest and the north of China, the landform is monotonous, the ground elevation difference is only dozens of meters, the intertidal zone is narrow and does not develop, the width is about 10-100 m generally, and the social and economic development is severely restricted due to drought and water shortage, so that a large number of small reservoirs are built due to the influence of natural conditions and economic conditions, and the method is a better way for solving the water resource shortage in similar areas.
Because a large number of small reservoirs are distributed in the river basin, the flood fighting effect in the flood season is obvious, and therefore, certain influence is caused on flood forecasting.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a flood forecasting method, a flood forecasting system, a readable storage medium and a computing device, which solve the problems disclosed in the background art.
In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a flood forecasting method comprises the steps of,
constructing a dynamic rainfall time matrix according to the historical rainfall and the future simulated rainfall of each rainfall station; the historical rainfall is the rainfall of a plurality of time periods before the current time point, and the future simulated rainfall is the simulated rainfall of a plurality of time periods after the current time point;
calculating a dynamic water level time matrix according to the dynamic rainfall time matrix, the position correlation of the rainfall station and the water level stations, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station;
calculating a dynamic overflow flow time matrix according to the dynamic water level time matrix and the characteristics of the spillway of each reservoir;
calculating and forecasting the overflow warehousing flow at the dam site of the reservoir by adopting an equal-flow time line method according to the river channel parameters and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix of each water level station;
calculating and forecasting the warehousing flow according to the overflow warehousing flow and the interval warehousing flow;
and (4) carrying out flood forecasting according to the forecast warehousing flow.
Calculating a dynamic water level time matrix according to the dynamic rainfall time matrix, the position correlation of the rainfall station and the water level stations, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station,
according to the position correlation of the rainfall station and the water level station, constructing the weight between the water level station and the rainfall station with correlation;
for each water level station, calculating a surface rainfall array of each water level station according to the historical rainfall and the future simulated rainfall of the associated rainfall station and the weight between the water level station and the associated rainfall station;
and calculating a dynamic water level time matrix according to the surface rainfall array, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station.
The dynamic water level time matrix has the calculation formula of,
wherein SW (I, J) is the water level of the J-th time period of the I-th water level station; SW (I, J-1) is the water level of the J-1 th time period of the I water level station; SW (I, J) and SW (I, J-1) are elements in the dynamic water level time matrix; mk (J) is the water evaporation amount of the water level station in the J-th period; QS (I, J) is the water intake quantity of the J-th time interval of the I-th water level station; fall (I, J) is the face rainfall array of the ith water level station at the J th time period.
The formula for calculating the dynamic overflow flow time matrix is,
Flow(I,J)＝BIH(I,J)
wherein, Flow (I, J) is the overflow Flow of the J-th period of the I-th reservoir, and is an element in a dynamic overflow Flow time matrix; b isIIs the comprehensive parameter of the width of the overflow weir crest of the I-th reservoir,
mIcorrection factor for the I-th reservoir spillway, bIIs the characteristics of the I-th reservoir spillway; h (I, J) is the comprehensive parameter of the top height of the overflow weir of the I-th reservoir,
SW (I, J) is the water level of the J-th time period of the I-th water level station, the water level stations are in one-to-one correspondence with the reservoirs, and H0(I) is the overflow weir crest elevation of the I-th reservoir.
According to the river channel parameters and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix of each water level station, an equal flow time line method is adopted to calculate and forecast the overflow warehousing flow at the dam site of the reservoir,
calculating the time of each overflow flow reaching the forecast reservoir dam site according to the river channel parameters of each water level station and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix;
and calculating the overflow warehousing flow at the forecast reservoir dam site according to the time of each overflow flow reaching the forecast reservoir dam site and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix.
The formula for calculating the time of each overflow flow reaching the forecast reservoir dam site is as follows,
wherein T (I, J) is the overflow flow of the I-th reservoir in the J-th time period and the time of arriving at the forecast reservoir dam site; l (I), B (I) are the length of the river channel between the overflow point and the dam site of the reservoir I and the average width of the river channel respectively; flow (I, J) is the overflow Flow for the jth interval of the ith reservoir.
The formula for calculating the overflow warehousing flow is
FlowTotal(J)＝∑Flow(I,J)*T(I,J)
Wherein, FlowTotal (J) is the overflow warehousing flow at the forecast reservoir dam site in the J-th time period; t (I, J) is the overflow flow of the I-th reservoir in the J-th time period and the time of arriving at the forecast reservoir dam site; flow (I, J) is the overflow Flow for the jth interval of the ith reservoir.
A flood forecasting system comprises a plurality of flood forecasting units,
a rainfall time matrix construction module: constructing a dynamic rainfall time matrix according to the historical rainfall and the future simulated rainfall of each rainfall station; the historical rainfall is the rainfall of a plurality of time periods before the current time point, and the future simulated rainfall is the simulated rainfall of a plurality of time periods after the current time point;
a water level time matrix calculation module: calculating a dynamic water level time matrix according to the dynamic rainfall time matrix, the position correlation of the rainfall station and the water level stations, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station;
an overflow flow time matrix calculation module: calculating a dynamic overflow flow time matrix according to the dynamic water level time matrix and the characteristics of the spillway of each reservoir;
the overflow warehousing flow calculation module: calculating and forecasting the overflow warehousing flow at the dam site of the reservoir by adopting an equal-flow time line method according to the river channel parameters and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix of each water level station;
the forecast warehousing flow calculation module: calculating and forecasting the warehousing flow according to the overflow warehousing flow and the interval warehousing flow;
a forecasting module: and (4) carrying out flood forecasting according to the forecast warehousing flow.
A computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs, the one or more programs comprising instructions, which when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform a flood forecasting method.
A computing device comprising one or more processors, one or more memories, and one or more programs stored in the one or more memories and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, the one or more programs including instructions for performing a flood forecasting method.
The invention achieves the following beneficial effects: the method calculates the overflow warehousing flow based on the matrix transformation algorithm, adopts a fine processing method similar to gridding, fully considers the flood retaining functions of a plurality of medium and small reservoirs, greatly improves the forecasting precision, and provides a highly effective technical support for reservoir dispatching.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereby.
As shown in fig. 1, a flood forecasting method includes the following steps:
step 1, constructing a dynamic rainfall time matrix according to historical rainfall and future simulated rainfall of each rainfall station; the historical rainfall is the rainfall of a plurality of time periods before the current time point, and the future simulated rainfall is the simulated rainfall of a plurality of time periods after the current time point;
step 2, calculating a dynamic water level time matrix according to the dynamic rainfall time matrix, the position correlation of the rainfall stations and the water level stations, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station;
step 3, calculating a dynamic overflow flow time matrix according to the dynamic water level time matrix and the characteristics of the spillway of each reservoir;
step 4, calculating and forecasting the overflow warehousing flow at the dam site of the reservoir by adopting an equal flow time line method according to the river channel parameters and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix of each water level station;
step 5, calculating and forecasting the warehousing flow according to the overflow warehousing flow and the interval warehousing flow;
and 6, forecasting the flood according to the forecast warehousing flow.
The method calculates the overflow warehousing flow based on the matrix transformation algorithm, adopts a fine processing method similar to gridding, fully considers the flood retaining functions of a plurality of medium and small reservoirs, greatly improves the forecasting precision, and provides a highly effective technical support for reservoir scheduling.
In order to perform the rainfall measurement, a rain gauge is installed at each rainfall station, the rain gauge can only perform real-time rainfall measurement, that is, each historical rainfall is a rainfall measured in real time, and a future simulated rainfall is a predicted rainfall, so that the whole dynamic rainfall time matrix can be:
wherein Rain (K, J) is rainfall of the Kth rainfall station in the J th time period; in general, a dynamic rainfall time matrix is constructed by using rainfall of the first 3 days and rainfall of the last 3 days of the current time point, and 1 hour is taken as a time period;
if Rain (k, j) is the rainfall of the kth rainfall station in the jth period, and is the historical rainfall, it can be expressed as:
Rain(k,j)＝(Times(k,j)-Times(k,j-1))*0.5
wherein Times (k, j) is the tipping frequency of the tipping bucket rain gauge in the j time period of the kth rain gauge station, Times (k, j-1) is the tipping frequency of the tipping bucket rain gauge in the j-1 time period of the kth rain gauge station, and 0.5 is the capacity of the tipping bucket of the rain gauge, which indicates that the rainfall is 0.5mm after one-time tipping.
According to the dynamic rainfall time matrix, the position correlation of the rainfall stations and the water level stations, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station, calculating the dynamic water level time matrix, wherein the specific process comprises the following steps:
21) according to the position correlation of the rainfall station and the water level station, constructing the weight between the water level station and the rainfall station with correlation;
each reservoir corresponds to a water level station, one water level station can be associated with one or more rainfall stations, if the I water level station is associated with k rainfall stations, the Area corresponding to the I water level station is Area total (I), and the Area represented by the k rainfall station in the Area range is AreakThen the weight between the I-th water level station and the k-th rainfall station can be calculated as
22) For each water level station, calculating a surface rainfall array of each water level station according to the historical rainfall and the future simulated rainfall of the associated rainfall station and the weight between the water level station and the associated rainfall station;
assuming that Fall (I, J) is the surface rainfall array of the ith water station in the jth period, then Fall (I, J) [ [ Rain (1, J) × weight [ ]1 Rain(2,J)*Weigh2 … Rain(k,J)*Weighk]；
The surface rainfall arrays of all the water level stations can construct a surface rainfall matrix.
23) Calculating a dynamic water level time matrix according to the surface rainfall array, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station;
the dynamic water level time matrix has the calculation formula of,
wherein SW (I, J) is the water level of the J-th time interval of the I-th water level station, SW (I, J-1) is the water level of the J-th time interval of the I-th water level station, SW (I, J) and SW (I, J-1) are elements in a dynamic water level time matrix, MK (J) is the water evaporation capacity of the J-th time interval of the water level station, the water evaporation capacity is basically a fixed value in each time interval of each year, each water level station is basically the same in the same time interval for the same basin, namely, the water evaporation capacity is independent of the water level station and only related to the time interval, QS (I, J) is the water taking capacity of the J-th time interval of the I-th water level station, the value is related to the plan of each small water taking, and is related to the activities of industrial and agricultural production, life and the like around the water level station.
The dynamic overflow flow time matrix can be calculated by combining the dynamic water level time matrix with the characteristics of the spillway of each reservoir according to the following formula:
Flow(I,J)＝BIH(I,J)
the water level stations correspond to the reservoirs one by one, the subscripts of the reservoirs also use I, namely the I-th water level station corresponds to the I-th reservoir, and the Flow (I, J) is the overflow Flow of the I-th reservoir in the J-th time period and is an element in a dynamic overflow Flow time matrix; b isIIs the comprehensive parameter of the width of the overflow weir crest of the I-th reservoir,
mIcorrection factor for the I-th reservoir spillway, bIIs the characteristics of the I-th reservoir spillway; h (I, J) is the comprehensive parameter of the top height of the overflow weir of the I-th reservoir,
h0(I) is the I-th reservoir weir crest elevation.
And calculating the overflow warehousing flow at the forecast reservoir dam site by using the dynamic overflow flow time matrix and the river channel parameters of each water level station and adopting an equal flow time line method. Because the regulation and storage effect of the river channel is not considered in the traditional equal flow time line method, the influence of the flow on the flow speed is not considered, and the subsequent precision is influenced, the traditional equal flow time line method is improved, and the specific process is as follows:
41) calculating the time of each overflow flow reaching the forecast reservoir dam site according to the river channel parameters of each water level station and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix;
the specific calculation formula is as follows:
wherein T (I, J) is the overflow flow of the I-th reservoir in the J-th time period and the time of arriving at the forecast reservoir dam site; l (I), B (I) are the length of the river channel between the overflow point and the dam site of the reservoir I and the average width of the river channel respectively.
42) Calculating the overflow warehousing flow at the forecast reservoir dam site according to the time of each overflow flow reaching the forecast reservoir dam site and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix;
FlowTotal(J)＝∑Flow(I,J)*T(I,J)
wherein, FlowTotal (J) is the overflow warehousing flow at the forecast reservoir dam site in the J-th time period.
And on the basis of the overflow warehousing flow, adding the interval warehousing flow to obtain a forecast warehousing flow, and carrying out flood forecast according to the forecast warehousing flow. The overflow flow rate of the stagnant flood area is large and reaches 80-90%, so that the accuracy of the flow rate of the flood forecasting warehouse is correspondingly improved after the accuracy of the flow rate of the flood warehouse is improved, and the accuracy of the flood forecasting is also improved.
The method can realize the calculation of the overflow flow of the medium and small reservoirs in the dense distribution in the stagnant flood area, breaks through the limitation that the forecast period does not exceed the convergence time of a river channel in the short-term flood forecast, prolongs the forecast period by 10-20 hours, greatly improves the flood forecast precision of the stagnant flood area, provides enough preparation time for reservoir flood control dispatching, provides technical support for protecting the life and property safety of people at the downstream of the reservoir in the flood period, and has general reference significance for the short-term flood forecast of the stagnant flood area.
A flood forecasting system, comprising:
a rainfall time matrix construction module: constructing a dynamic rainfall time matrix according to the historical rainfall and the future simulated rainfall of each rainfall station; the historical rainfall is the rainfall of a plurality of time periods before the current time point, and the future simulated rainfall is the simulated rainfall of a plurality of time periods after the current time point;
a water level time matrix calculation module: calculating a dynamic water level time matrix according to the dynamic rainfall time matrix, the position correlation of the rainfall station and the water level stations, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station;
an overflow flow time matrix calculation module: calculating a dynamic overflow flow time matrix according to the dynamic water level time matrix and the characteristics of the spillway of each reservoir;
the overflow warehousing flow calculation module: calculating and forecasting the overflow warehousing flow at the dam site of the reservoir by adopting an equal-flow time line method according to the river channel parameters and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix of each water level station;
the forecast warehousing flow calculation module: calculating and forecasting the warehousing flow according to the overflow warehousing flow and the interval warehousing flow;
a forecasting module: and (4) carrying out flood forecasting according to the forecast warehousing flow.
A computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs, the one or more programs comprising instructions, which when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform a flood forecasting method.
A computing device comprising one or more processors, one or more memories, and one or more programs stored in the one or more memories and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, the one or more programs including instructions for performing a flood forecasting method.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and any modifications, equivalent replacements, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention are included in the scope of the claims of the present invention which are filed as the application.
Claims (10)
1. A flood forecasting method, characterized by: comprises the steps of (a) preparing a mixture of a plurality of raw materials,
constructing a dynamic rainfall time matrix according to the historical rainfall and the future simulated rainfall of each rainfall station; the historical rainfall is the rainfall of a plurality of time periods before the current time point, and the future simulated rainfall is the simulated rainfall of a plurality of time periods after the current time point;
calculating a dynamic water level time matrix according to the dynamic rainfall time matrix, the position correlation of the rainfall station and the water level stations, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station;
calculating a dynamic overflow flow time matrix according to the dynamic water level time matrix and the characteristics of the spillway of each reservoir;
calculating and forecasting the overflow warehousing flow at the dam site of the reservoir by adopting an equal-flow time line method according to the river channel parameters and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix of each water level station;
calculating and forecasting the warehousing flow according to the overflow warehousing flow and the interval warehousing flow;
and (4) carrying out flood forecasting according to the forecast warehousing flow.
2. A flood forecasting method as claimed in claim 1, wherein: calculating a dynamic water level time matrix according to the dynamic rainfall time matrix, the position correlation of the rainfall station and the water level stations, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station,
according to the position correlation of the rainfall station and the water level station, constructing the weight between the water level station and the rainfall station with correlation;
for each water level station, calculating a surface rainfall array of each water level station according to the historical rainfall and the future simulated rainfall of the associated rainfall station and the weight between the water level station and the associated rainfall station;
and calculating a dynamic water level time matrix according to the surface rainfall array, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station.
3. A flood forecasting method as claimed in claim 2, wherein: the dynamic water level time matrix has the calculation formula of,
wherein SW (I, J) is the water level of the J-th time period of the I-th water level station; SW (I, J-1) is the water level of the J-1 th time period of the I water level station; SW (I, J) and SW (I, J-1) are elements in the dynamic water level time matrix; mk (J) is the water evaporation amount of the water level station in the J-th period; QS (I, J) is the water intake quantity of the J-th time interval of the I-th water level station; fall (I, J) is the face rainfall array of the ith water level station at the J th time period.
4. A flood forecasting method as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the formula for calculating the dynamic overflow flow time matrix is,
Flow(I,J)＝BIH(I,J)
wherein, Flow (I, J) is the overflow Flow of the J-th period of the I-th reservoir, and is an element in a dynamic overflow Flow time matrix; b isIIs the comprehensive parameter of the width of the overflow weir crest of the I-th reservoir,
mIcorrection factor for the I-th reservoir spillway, bIIs the characteristics of the I-th reservoir spillway; h (I, J) is the comprehensive parameter of the top height of the overflow weir of the I-th reservoir,
SW (I, J) is the water level of the J-th time period of the I-th water level station, the water level stations are in one-to-one correspondence with the reservoirs, and H0(I) is the overflow weir crest elevation of the I-th reservoir.
5. A flood forecasting method as claimed in claim 1, wherein: according to the river channel parameters and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix of each water level station, an equal flow time line method is adopted to calculate and forecast the overflow warehousing flow at the dam site of the reservoir,
calculating the time of each overflow flow reaching the forecast reservoir dam site according to the river channel parameters of each water level station and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix;
and calculating the overflow warehousing flow at the forecast reservoir dam site according to the time of each overflow flow reaching the forecast reservoir dam site and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix.
6. A flood forecasting method as claimed in claim 5, wherein: the formula for calculating the time of each overflow flow reaching the forecast reservoir dam site is as follows,
wherein T (I, J) is the overflow flow of the I-th reservoir in the J-th time period and the time of arriving at the forecast reservoir dam site; l (I), B (I) are the length of the river channel between the overflow point and the dam site of the reservoir I and the average width of the river channel respectively; flow (I, J) is the overflow Flow for the jth interval of the ith reservoir.
7. A flood forecasting method as claimed in claim 5, wherein: the formula for calculating the overflow warehousing flow is
FlowTotal(J)＝∑Flow(I,J)*T(I,J)
Wherein, FlowTotal (J) is the overflow warehousing flow at the forecast reservoir dam site in the J-th time period; t (I, J) is the overflow flow of the I-th reservoir in the J-th time period and the time of arriving at the forecast reservoir dam site; flow (I, J) is the overflow Flow for the jth interval of the ith reservoir.
8. A flood forecasting system, comprising: comprises the steps of (a) preparing a mixture of a plurality of raw materials,
a rainfall time matrix construction module: constructing a dynamic rainfall time matrix according to the historical rainfall and the future simulated rainfall of each rainfall station; the historical rainfall is the rainfall of a plurality of time periods before the current time point, and the future simulated rainfall is the simulated rainfall of a plurality of time periods after the current time point;
a water level time matrix calculation module: calculating a dynamic water level time matrix according to the dynamic rainfall time matrix, the position correlation of the rainfall station and the water level stations, the water evaporation condition of each water level station and the water taking condition of each water level station;
an overflow flow time matrix calculation module: calculating a dynamic overflow flow time matrix according to the dynamic water level time matrix and the characteristics of the spillway of each reservoir;
the overflow warehousing flow calculation module: calculating and forecasting the overflow warehousing flow at the dam site of the reservoir by adopting an equal-flow time line method according to the river channel parameters and the dynamic overflow flow time matrix of each water level station;
the forecast warehousing flow calculation module: calculating and forecasting the warehousing flow according to the overflow warehousing flow and the interval warehousing flow;
a forecasting module: and (4) carrying out flood forecasting according to the forecast warehousing flow.
9. A computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs, characterized in that: the one or more programs include instructions that, when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform any of the methods of claims 1-7.
10. A computing device, comprising:
one or more processors, one or more memories, and one or more programs stored in the one or more memories and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, the one or more programs including instructions for performing any of the methods of claims 1-7.
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