CN113380412A - Method for analyzing meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases - Google Patents
Method for analyzing meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases Download PDFInfo
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- 208000024172 Cardiovascular disease Diseases 0.000 title claims abstract description 93
- 208000026106 cerebrovascular disease Diseases 0.000 title claims abstract description 92
- 230000002526 effect on cardiovascular system Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 92
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 32
- 238000000556 factor analysis Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 37
- 238000010219 correlation analysis Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 33
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 claims description 33
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 claims description 31
- 230000034994 death Effects 0.000 claims description 19
- 231100000517 death Toxicity 0.000 claims description 19
- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 claims description 13
- 238000012216 screening Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 238000012098 association analyses Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000007405 data analysis Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 description 10
- 230000006806 disease prevention Effects 0.000 description 8
- 239000003344 environmental pollutant Substances 0.000 description 7
- 231100000719 pollutant Toxicity 0.000 description 7
- 201000010099 disease Diseases 0.000 description 6
- 208000037265 diseases, disorders, signs and symptoms Diseases 0.000 description 6
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 description 5
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 4
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 description 3
- 230000002596 correlated effect Effects 0.000 description 2
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for analyzing meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and relates to the technical field of data analysis; according to the meteorological factor data and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease data, a time series nonlinear Poisson regression GAM model is adopted to construct a correlation analysis model of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, the correlation analysis model is used for carrying out single factor analysis on the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and the correlation analysis model is used for carrying out multi-factor analysis on the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases according to the single factor analysis result.
Description
Technical Field
The invention discloses a method, relates to the technical field of data analysis, and particularly relates to a method for analyzing meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
Background
Various physical factors of the natural environment have great influence on human health, wherein weather changes and season changes are prominent. The disease condition of the middle-aged and old people with cardiovascular diseases is easy to be aggravated by sudden changes of weather every time the weather changes or seasons. In recent years, weather researchers and medical researchers have conducted a plurality of studies on the relationship between weather factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, but the amount of data to be analyzed is enormous, and no clear method has been known so far for analyzing the relevant weather factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems in the prior art, the invention provides an analysis method for meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, which has the characteristics of strong universality, simple and convenient implementation and the like, and has wide application prospect.
The specific scheme provided by the invention is as follows:
a meteorological factor and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease analysis method is characterized in that a time-series GAM model is adopted to construct a correlation analysis model of meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases according to meteorological factor data and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease data, single-factor analysis of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is carried out by using the correlation analysis model, and multi-factor analysis of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is carried out by using the correlation analysis model according to single-factor analysis results.
Furthermore, in the method for analyzing the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, meteorological factor data and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death data are collected, meteorological monitoring data and environmental monitoring data in the meteorological factor data are screened out, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death data in the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease data are used as analysis parameters of the correlation analysis model.
Furthermore, in the analysis method of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, the relevance between the index data in the meteorological monitoring data and the environmental monitoring data and the death data of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is respectively analyzed by a single-factor analysis method and a relevance analysis model.
Furthermore, in the method for analyzing the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, a multi-factor correlation analysis model is constructed by screening index data in meteorological monitoring data and environmental monitoring data according to a single-factor analysis result to perform multi-factor analysis on the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
An analysis system for meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases comprises a construction module and an analysis module,
the building module builds a correlation analysis model of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by adopting a time-series GAM model according to the meteorological factor data and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease data, the analysis module performs single-factor analysis of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by using the correlation analysis model, and performs multi-factor analysis of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by using the correlation analysis model according to a single-factor analysis result.
Furthermore, the system for analyzing the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases further comprises a collecting and screening module, wherein the collecting and screening module collects meteorological factor data and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death data, screens out meteorological monitoring data and environmental monitoring data in the meteorological factor data, and uses cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death data as analysis parameters of the correlation analysis model.
Furthermore, the analysis module in the system for analyzing the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases analyzes the relevance between the index data in the meteorological monitoring data and the environmental monitoring data and the death data of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by a single-factor analysis method and by using a correlation analysis model.
Furthermore, the analysis module in the system for analyzing the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases screens the index data in the meteorological monitoring data and the environmental monitoring data to form a multi-factor correlation analysis model according to the single-factor analysis result so as to perform multi-factor analysis on the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
A kind of meteorological factor and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease analytical equipment, including at least one memorizer and at least one processor;
the at least one memory to store a machine readable program;
the at least one processor is used for calling the machine readable program to execute the method for analyzing the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
The invention has the advantages that:
the invention provides an analysis method of meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, which can analyze the correlation between the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases aiming at mass data, can acquire the correlation between relatively single index data and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by a single-factor analysis method, further performs multi-factor analysis by a plurality of index data, can accurately analyze the correlation between the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, realizes the collection of a plurality of data sources for forecast analysis, improves the analysis efficiency, can be widely applied, promotes the development of disease prevention industry, and provides data support for providing forecast service of disease incidence change caused by weather change and guiding civil disease prevention and treatment for information media.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of the process of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is further described below in conjunction with the following figures and specific examples so that those skilled in the art may better understand the present invention and practice it, but the examples are not intended to limit the present invention.
The invention provides a method for analyzing meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, which comprises the steps of constructing a correlation analysis model of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by adopting a time-series GAM model according to meteorological factor data and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease data, carrying out single-factor analysis on the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by utilizing the correlation analysis model, and carrying out multi-factor analysis on the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by utilizing the correlation analysis model according to a single-factor analysis result.
The method can accurately analyze the relevance of meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, realizes the collection of multiple data sources for forecast analysis, improves the analysis efficiency, can be widely applied, promotes the development of disease prevention industry, provides data support for information media to provide forecast service of disease incidence change caused by weather change for the masses of people and guide civil disease prevention and treatment, and particularly provides basis for the prevention and control of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
In particular applications, in some embodiments of the method of the invention, the application process is as follows:
collecting meteorological factor data and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease data as analyzed original data, wherein the meteorological factor data comprises meteorological monitoring data, environmental monitoring data and the like of a meteorological office, the environmental monitoring data mainly studies atmospheric pollutant monitoring data, and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease data mainly collects resident cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death data.
Adopting a GAM (generalized additive model) model of a time sequence to construct an association analysis model of meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, wherein a basic model can be expressed as:
Log[E(Yi)]＝s(time,bs＝"cr",df1)+as.factor(week)+Holiday
e (Yi) is the observation day; expected value of the number of Yi deaths; time is a time series variable; s (…, bs ═ cr ") is the cubic spline smoothing function, df1 is the degree of freedom in time; week is a week dummy variable. as factor () is a classification function; and Holiday is a Holiday dummy variable. When single-factor analysis is carried out, meteorological monitoring data and atmospheric pollutant monitoring data are processed by a mixed factor, and a correlation analysis model can be established by adjusting the degree of freedom of a basic model according to the minimum principle of AIC, such as:
2Ln[E(Y)]＝s(time,bs＝"cr",df1)+as.factor(week)+Holiday+s(SO2i-j,bs＝”cr”,df)+s(NO2i-j,bs＝”cr”,df)+s(PM10i-j,bs＝”cr”,df)+α
the correlation of atmospheric pollutant monitoring data to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death can be analyzed, and the atmospheric pollutant SO2, NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 data are all entered into a model. The degree of single correlation between the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death and different atmospheric pollutants is shown according to the magnitude of the correlation coefficient. The correlation coefficient takes a value between-1 and + 1. If the correlation coefficient is positive, the explanatory variable is positively correlated with the death of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and the explanatory variable shows the same change trend along with the increase or decrease of the variable; if the correlation coefficient is negative, the explanatory variable is negatively correlated with the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death, the variation trend is opposite to the variable, and the correlation degree is evaluated by using a t test.
The correlation between the meteorological monitoring data and the death of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases can be adjusted according to the meteorological data such as air temperature term and air pressure term. And analyzing by using the adjusted correlation analysis model, wherein the correlation of the air temperature items is better under the normal condition, the correlation degree of various air temperature items and diseases is sequentially the lowest air temperature > the average air temperature > the highest air temperature, and the air pressure items also have good correlation, wherein the correlation degree is sequentially the water air pressure > the air pressure.
Through the single-factor analysis, index data such as meteorological elements, atmospheric pollutants and the like with meaningful single-correlation analysis, high correlation and good fitting degree are selected to establish a multi-factor GAM correlation analysis model. Ignoring long-term effects, days of the week and other confounding factors, assuming that meteorological factors, atmospheric pollutants and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases have a linear relationship, further screening factors to construct a stepwise regression prediction model and performing complex correlation coefficient analysis and F significance test.
The correlation analysis model can be further optimized by using the training set and the test set data, so that the analysis data is more accurate.
Meanwhile, the invention provides an analysis system for meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, which comprises a construction module and an analysis module,
the building module builds a correlation analysis model of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by adopting a time sequence nonlinear Poisson regression GAM model according to the meteorological factor data and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease data, the analysis module performs single-factor analysis of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by utilizing the correlation analysis model, and performs multi-factor analysis of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by utilizing the correlation analysis model according to a single-factor analysis result. The information interaction, execution process and other contents between the modules in the system are based on the same concept as the method embodiment of the present invention, and specific contents can be referred to the description in the method embodiment of the present invention, and are not described herein again. Similarly, the system can accurately analyze the relevance of meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, realizes the collection of multiple data sources for forecast analysis, improves the analysis efficiency, can be widely applied, promotes the development of disease prevention industries, provides forecast service of disease incidence change caused by weather change for the masses of people and provides data support for guiding civil disease prevention and treatment for information media, and particularly provides basis for the prevention and control of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
The invention also provides a device for analyzing meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, which comprises at least one memory and at least one processor;
the at least one memory to store a machine readable program;
the at least one processor is used for calling the machine readable program to execute the method for analyzing the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. The contents of information interaction, readable program process execution and the like of the processor in the device are based on the same concept as the method embodiment of the present invention, and specific contents can be referred to the description in the method embodiment of the present invention, and are not described herein again. Similarly, the device can accurately analyze the relevance of meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, realizes the collection of multiple data sources for forecast analysis, improves the analysis efficiency, can be widely applied, promotes the development of disease prevention industries, provides forecast service of disease incidence change caused by weather change for the masses of people and provides data support for guiding civil disease prevention and treatment for information media, and particularly provides basis for the prevention and control of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
It should be noted that not all steps and modules in the processes and system structures in the preferred embodiments are necessary, and some steps or modules may be omitted according to actual needs. The execution order of the steps is not fixed and can be adjusted as required. The system structure described in the above embodiments may be a physical structure or a logical structure, that is, some modules may be implemented by the same physical entity, or some modules may be implemented by a plurality of physical entities, or some components in a plurality of independent devices may be implemented together.
The above-mentioned embodiments are merely preferred embodiments for fully illustrating the present invention, and the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. The equivalent substitution or change made by the technical personnel in the technical field on the basis of the invention is all within the protection scope of the invention. The protection scope of the invention is subject to the claims.
Claims (9)
1. A method for analyzing meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is characterized in that a time-series GAM model is adopted to construct an association analysis model of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases according to meteorological factor data and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease data, single-factor analysis of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is carried out by using the association analysis model, and multi-factor analysis of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is carried out by using the association analysis model according to single-factor analysis results.
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method comprises collecting meteorological factor data and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death data, and screening meteorological monitoring data and environmental monitoring data from the meteorological factor data, wherein cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death data are used as analysis parameters of the correlation analysis model.
3. The method as claimed in claim 2, wherein the correlation between the index data of the weather monitoring data and the death data of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is analyzed by a single factor analysis method using a correlation analysis model.
4. The method as claimed in claim 3, wherein a multi-factor correlation analysis model is constructed by screening the index data in the weather monitoring data and the environmental monitoring data according to the single-factor analysis result to perform multi-factor analysis of the weather factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
5. An analysis system for meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is characterized by comprising a construction module and an analysis module,
the building module builds a correlation analysis model of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by adopting a time-series GAM model according to the meteorological factor data and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease data, the analysis module performs single-factor analysis of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by using the correlation analysis model, and performs multi-factor analysis of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by using the correlation analysis model according to a single-factor analysis result.
6. The system for analyzing meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases according to claim 5, further comprising a collecting and screening module, wherein the collecting and screening module collects meteorological factor data and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death data, screens meteorological monitoring data and environmental monitoring data in the meteorological factor data, and uses cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease death data as analysis parameters of the correlation analysis model.
7. The system for analyzing meteorological factors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases according to claim 6, wherein the analysis module analyzes the relevance between the index data and the death data of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in the meteorological monitoring data and environmental monitoring data respectively by a single factor analysis method and a relevance analysis model.
8. The system of claim 7, wherein the analysis module is configured to set up a multi-factor correlation analysis model by using the index data of the meteorological monitoring data and the environmental monitoring data according to the single-factor analysis result, so as to perform multi-factor analysis of the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
9. A kind of meteorological factor and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease analytical equipment, its characteristic is to include at least one memorizer and at least one processor;
the at least one memory to store a machine readable program;
the at least one processor is used for calling the machine readable program to execute the method for analyzing the meteorological factors and the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases according to any one of claims 1 to 4.
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Patent Citations (4)
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| CN107680680A (en) * | 2017-09-07 | 2018-02-09 | 广州九九加健康管理有限公司 | Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease method for prewarning risk and system based on accurate health control |
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