CN113379311A - Method, device, equipment and storage medium for judging shale gas resource evaluation reliability - Google Patents
Method, device, equipment and storage medium for judging shale gas resource evaluation reliability Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention is applicable to the technical field of shale gas resources, and provides a method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for judging the evaluation reliability of shale gas resources, wherein the judging method comprises the following steps: obtaining an evaluation result to be judged; the total number of data volumes of target shale gas geology evaluation parameters corresponding to the evaluation result is N, and the data volumes of the actually used target shale gas geology evaluation parameters are M; uniformly randomly dividing N target shale gas geological evaluation parameters into K groups; respectively calculating a first result of the single-factor variance analysis based on the F distribution and a second result based on the relation strength analysis of the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter when K takes different values; determining all target Ks which accord with a preset rule in Ks with different values; and if the ratio of the N to the maximum target K is greater than M, judging that the evaluation result is unreliable, otherwise, judging that the evaluation result is reliable. The reliability of the shale gas resource evaluation result can be judged by adopting the method and the device.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of shale gas resources, in particular to a method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for judging evaluation reliability of shale gas resources.
Background
The key and difficult point of shale gas resource evaluation always lies in how to provide scientific and reasonable resource quantity or reserve, and the evaluation and processing of related geological parameters are undoubtedly the most main factors capable of directly influencing the resource quantity calculation accuracy. The shale gas resource evaluation work has rich content, various data and miscellaneous data, and whether accurate, reasonable and scientific evaluation results can be submitted finally is the most concerned problem of numerous scholars and institutions.
However, in the field of shale gas resources, a judgment method for judging whether the evaluation result is reliable is lacked.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for judging the evaluation reliability of a shale gas resource, and aims to solve the problem that whether an evaluation result is reliable or not is lacked in the field of shale gas resources.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for determining evaluation reliability of a shale gas resource, including:
obtaining an evaluation result to be judged; the total number of data volumes of target shale gas geology evaluation parameters corresponding to the evaluation result is N, the data volumes of the target shale gas geology evaluation parameters actually used by the evaluation result are M, and both N and M are positive integers;
uniformly dividing N target shale gas geological evaluation parameters into K groups randomly, wherein K is a positive integer and is more than or equal to 2 and less than or equal to N;
respectively calculating a first result of the single-factor variance analysis based on the F distribution and a second result based on the relation strength analysis of the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter when K takes different values;
determining all target Ks which accord with a preset rule in Ks with different values; the preset rule is that a first result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a first threshold value, and a second result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a second threshold value;
and if the ratio of the N to the maximum target K is greater than M, judging that the evaluation result is unreliable, otherwise, judging that the evaluation result is reliable.
In one possible implementation, the calculating the first result of the F distribution-based one-way anova of the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter when K takes different values includes:
when K takes a first value, calculating the sum of squares of errors in groups and the sum of squares of errors between groups of the first value, wherein the first value is any one of different values;
calculating the intra-group mean square error and the inter-group mean square error of the first numerical number of groups according to the degree of freedom of the intra-group square sum and the degree of freedom of the inter-group square sum;
and determining the ratio of the inter-group mean square error and the intra-group mean square error of the first numerical value of the groups as a first result of taking the first numerical value of K.
In one possible implementation, the first threshold is a corresponding F value in the F distribution table of the degree of freedom of the intra-group error sum of squares and the degree of freedom of the inter-group error sum of squares.
In one possible implementation manner, respectively calculating second results of the relationship strength analysis based on the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter when K takes different values, includes:
when K takes a second value, calculating the sum of squares of errors in groups and the sum of squares of errors between groups of the second value, wherein the second value is any one of different values;
and determining a ratio of the interclass squared error sum to the total squared error sum for the second number of groups as a second result of the second number of K values, wherein the total squared error sum is a sum of the interclass squared error sum and the total squared error sum for the second number of groups.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a device for determining reliability of shale gas resource evaluation, including:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring an evaluation result to be judged; the total number of data volumes of target shale gas geology evaluation parameters corresponding to the evaluation result is N, the data volumes of the target shale gas geology evaluation parameters actually used by the evaluation result are M, and both N and M are positive integers;
the grouping module is used for randomly and uniformly dividing the N target shale gas geology evaluation parameters into K groups, wherein K is a positive integer and is more than or equal to 2 and less than or equal to N;
the calculation module is used for respectively calculating a first result of the single-factor analysis of variance based on the F distribution and a second result based on the relationship strength analysis of the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter when the K takes different values;
the determining module is used for determining all target Ks which accord with a preset rule in the Ks with different values; the preset rule is that a first result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a first threshold value, and a second result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a second threshold value;
and the judging module is used for judging that the evaluation result is unreliable if the ratio of the N to the maximum target K is greater than M, or judging that the evaluation result is reliable.
In one possible implementation, the calculation module is further configured to:
when K takes a first value, calculating the sum of squares of errors in groups and the sum of squares of errors between groups of the first value, wherein the first value is any one of different values;
calculating the intra-group mean square error and the inter-group mean square error of the first numerical number of groups according to the degree of freedom of the intra-group square sum and the degree of freedom of the inter-group square sum;
and determining the ratio of the inter-group mean square error and the intra-group mean square error of the first numerical value of the groups as a first result of taking the first numerical value of K.
In one possible implementation, the first threshold is a corresponding F value in the F distribution table of the degree of freedom of the intra-group error sum of squares and the degree of freedom of the inter-group error sum of squares.
In one possible implementation, the calculation module is further configured to:
when K takes a second value, calculating the sum of squares of errors in groups and the sum of squares of errors between groups of the second value, wherein the second value is any one of different values;
and determining a ratio of the interclass squared error sum to the total squared error sum for the second number of groups as a second result of the second number of K values, wherein the total squared error sum is a sum of the interclass squared error sum and the total squared error sum for the second number of groups.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, which includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and the processor implements the steps of the method according to the first aspect when executing the computer program.
In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the computer program implements the steps of the method according to the first aspect.
The embodiment of the invention provides a method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for judging shale gas resource evaluation reliability, which can group the obtained evaluation results to be judged, namely, N target shale gas geological evaluation parameters are randomly and uniformly divided into K groups, then a first result of F distribution-based one-factor variance analysis and a second result of relationship strength analysis of the target shale gas geological evaluation parameters when K takes different values are respectively calculated, and then all target Ks which accord with a preset rule are determined in the Ks with different values. And finally, judging whether the evaluation result is reliable or not according to the relation between the ratio of the N to the maximum target K and the size of the M. The evaluation condition of the shale gas resource is fundamentally constrained by the calculated lower threshold of the minimum data volume required by the shale gas resource, and the purpose of controlling the reliability of the resource evaluation result from the source can be achieved, so that the reliability of any evaluation result can be judged based on the lower threshold of the minimum data volume.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments or the prior art descriptions will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without inventive exercise.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart illustrating steps of a method for determining shale gas resource evaluation reliability according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for determining shale gas resource evaluation reliability according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In the following description, for purposes of explanation and not limitation, specific details are set forth, such as particular system structures, techniques, etc. in order to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the invention. It will be apparent, however, to one skilled in the art that the present invention may be practiced in other embodiments that depart from these specific details. In other instances, detailed descriptions of well-known systems, devices, circuits, and methods are omitted so as not to obscure the description of the present invention with unnecessary detail.
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the following description is made by way of specific embodiments with reference to the accompanying drawings.
The geological science is a descriptive science at first, along with the technical progress, the experimental test means are gradually diversified, the precision is continuously improved, the petroleum geologist can be helped to carry out seismic section delineation, sediment environment division, lithology and organic matter type determination and the like by reading and analyzing the internal change rule of data, and the subsequent shale gas exploration, development and deployment work is guided further according to the internal relation and logical relation between the petrogeology and the geological knowledge. In the process, if the data volume is small or the data variation degree is large, the variation trend presented by regression fitting is not true and objective, and the credibility of resource calculation and even exploration deployment schemes is greatly reduced. In addition, the shale gas profitable area and the target area to be evaluated are more in the range of the whole country, if all data in the whole area are processed and counted indiscriminately regardless of the block size and the data type and grade, the time and the labor are consumed, and the embarrassing situation that the uniform geological knowledge is difficult to obtain due to the heterogeneity of the data is possibly caused.
Unlike the parameters of other fields, geological data itself has strong heterogeneity in time and space, which comes from differences in data distribution characteristics or internal change rules caused by the original structural background, deposition environment or geological characteristics when the layer system is formed, and on the other hand, the data abundance is different in the horizontal and vertical mastery degrees due to the limitation of surface topography or method means. The former is beneficial to understanding the cause mechanism and mechanism of shale gas formation and enrichment under different geological backgrounds; but the latter can become tripartite stones on geological knowledge roads of the shale gas reservoir.
The evaluation of the scale and the quantity of the shale gas is a huge challenge, and the resource quantity calculation is expanded on the basis of geological knowledge to form a numerical result of quantitative representation, so that the aim of resource evaluation is fulfilled. The shale gas resource evaluation work has rich content, various data and miscellaneous data, and whether accurate, reasonable and scientific evaluation results can be submitted finally is the most concerned problem of numerous scholars and institutions.
Due to the uncertainty of geological variables and the heterogeneity of shale gas reservoir conditions, the inaccurate measurement characteristic in shale gas resource evaluation always exists. By analyzing the shale gas evaluation workflow, the integrity of the geological evaluation workflow, the rationality of selecting a resource amount calculation formula, the scientificity of determining a parameter system and the accuracy and precision of the used parameters can be found to play a main control role in the accuracy and the credibility of the evaluation result.
At present, many scholars and experts at home and abroad develop detailed and comprehensive research and discussion on shale gas enrichment and reservoir macroscopic geological conditions, shale gas reservoir physical properties, shale gas storage conditions, resource amount calculation method optimization and the like, and a concept and a method for qualitatively describing evaluation processes, method optimization and the like and judging the coincidence degree between a final evaluation result and geological knowledge according to the qualitative description are provided, but according to the precision and the breadth of mastered data and data, particularly whether the data or sample amount can reach the calculation conditions for resource amount calculation, even further evaluating the reliability of the result are not provided and discussed.
The shale gas resource evaluation is mainly numerical reflection of geological cognition degree, and in the resource quantity calculation process, although only a few parameters (direct parameters) participate in calculation, the shale gas resource evaluation actually needs a great deal of support of all-aspect data (indirect parameters). The wider the data containing field, the higher the parameter acquisition accuracy and even the more the data possession, the more accurate the final evaluation result.
Therefore, how much data can represent all samples in the minimum evaluation unit, how much minimum data amount is required for different regions, different layers and different types of parameters to achieve statistical confidence, or what the confidence of the evaluation result obtained in the data-lacking block is, is a necessary, important and urgent task.
The invention provides a method for determining the data volume lower limit threshold required by resource volume calculation in different evaluation units based on the calculation conditions of the resource volume calculation, improves the integrity and systematicness of shale gas resource evaluation work content, and lays a foundation for further discussing the work of the shale gas resource evaluation result credibility. The method not only can reduce the workload to the maximum extent on the premise of ensuring the scientific and reasonable, but also can control the credibility of the evaluation result from the source, and has strong geological significance and practical significance.
It should be noted that, in order to discuss the minimum lower limit of the geological data amount required by the evaluation object, it is actually necessary to specify how much data can represent the statistical population in a given area, that is, to discuss how to ensure the representativeness and typicality of the sample to the population under the condition of the minimum data amount.
In order to solve the problem of the prior art, embodiments of the present invention provide a method, an apparatus, a device, and a storage medium for determining evaluation reliability of a shale gas resource. First, a method for determining the shale gas resource evaluation reliability provided by the embodiment of the invention is described below.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for determining the shale gas resource evaluation reliability according to the embodiment of the present invention may include the following steps:
and step S110, obtaining an evaluation result to be judged.
The total number of data volumes of target shale gas geology evaluation parameters corresponding to the evaluation result is N, the data volumes of the target shale gas geology evaluation parameters actually used by the evaluation result are M, and both N and M are positive integers;
in some embodiments, the evaluation result to be judged may be an evaluation result of any area containing the shale gas resource, for example, the evaluation result of the shale gas resource in the Fuling area. In addition, the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter may be any parameter used to evaluate shale gas resources, such as a reservoir total organic carbon mass fraction, TOC.
And S120, randomly and uniformly dividing the N target shale gas geological evaluation parameters into K groups.
Wherein K is a positive integer and is more than or equal to 2 and less than or equal to N.
In some embodiments, the random and uniform grouping means that N target shale gas geology evaluation parameters are randomly grouped, and it is ensured that the number of scores in each group is consistent, for example, the number of scores in each group differs by no more than one.
And S130, respectively calculating a first result of the single-factor analysis of variance based on the F distribution and a second result based on the relationship strength analysis of the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter when K takes different values.
In some embodiments, for the first result, the calculation process may be as follows: when K takes a first value, calculating the sum of squares of errors in groups and the sum of squares of errors between groups of the first value, wherein the first value is any one of different values; calculating the intra-group mean square error and the inter-group mean square error of the first numerical number of groups according to the degree of freedom of the intra-group square sum and the degree of freedom of the inter-group square sum; and determining the ratio of the inter-group mean square error and the intra-group mean square error of the first numerical value of the groups as a first result of taking the first numerical value of K.
For the second result, the calculation process may be as follows: when K takes a second value, calculating the sum of squares of errors in groups and the sum of squares of errors between groups of the second value, wherein the second value is any one of different values; and determining a ratio of the interclass squared error sum to the total squared error sum for the second number of groups as a second result of the second number of K values, wherein the total squared error sum is a sum of the interclass squared error sum and the total squared error sum for the second number of groups.
And step S140, determining all target K meeting the preset rule in the K with different values.
The preset rule is that a first result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a first threshold value, and a second result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a second threshold value.
In some embodiments, for the first threshold, it may take the corresponding F value in the F distribution table for the degree of freedom of the intra-group sum of squared errors and the degree of freedom of the inter-group sum of squared errors. For the second threshold, R is typically2The sample is more than or equal to 30% to be considered as having a significant influence on the whole, so the second threshold value can be any positive percentage less than 30%.
And S150, if the ratio of the N to the maximum target K is greater than M, judging that the evaluation result is unreliable, otherwise, judging that the evaluation result is reliable.
In some embodiments, after all the target K are obtained, the largest target K may be determined according to the size order, and correspondingly, the grouping is performed according to the largest target K, and the obtained number of the groups is the smallest number of all the target K, that is, the ratio of N to the largest target K. Since each group obtained by grouping the maximum target K may represent the population, the number of groups obtained in each group is the lower threshold of the data amount for generating a reliable evaluation result.
In this way, if the ratio of N to the maximum target K is greater than the data amount M of the target shale gas geology evaluation parameter actually used by the evaluation result to be judged, it is considered that the data amount adopted by the evaluation result to be judged is not enough to support the generation of the evaluation result, and it is reasonable to consider that the evaluation result is unreliable. Correspondingly, if the ratio of the N to the maximum target K is smaller than the data quantity M of the target shale gas geology evaluation parameter actually used by the evaluation result to be judged, the data quantity adopted by the evaluation result to be judged is enough to support the generation of the evaluation result, and the evaluation result is reasonably considered to be reliable.
It should be noted that, the reliability of the evaluation result can be comprehensively judged by adopting a manner of scoring or giving a weight value in combination with the minimum lower limit values of the multiple target shale gas geology evaluation parameters, so as to improve the accuracy of the judgment.
In order to better understand the method for determining the shale gas resource evaluation reliability provided by the embodiment of the invention, a specific embodiment is provided below for explanation.
Taking the total with the sample capacity of n of the evaluation result to be judged as an example, randomly dividing the evaluation result into k groups of samples, wherein each group of samples has n/k as m individuals, and searching for k which can ensure the minimum difference among the individuals in each group of samples and has the maximum difference among different groups by continuously adjusting k.
The specific implementation steps are as follows:
(1) the data volume n of a certain sheet of rock-gas geological evaluation parameter is taken as a total, each group of data volume is controlled to be the same, namely the sample data volume is m, the group number is k (m x k n), and the data total is randomly grouped (n)1，n2，……，ni……，nk)
(2) Calculate the average of each group of samples, and record as
Then there are:
(3) calculate the overall mean, note
Then there is
(4) The sum of the squares of the errors in each group (sum of the squares of the residuals) is calculated and recorded as SSE, if any
(5) The sum of squared errors (the sum of squared factors) between the groups was found and recorded as SSA, which is the sum of squared errors between the groups
(6) The sum of squares of all data error magnitudes in the reaction population is called the sum of squares, which is denoted as SST and is composed of two parts, namely SSE and SSA, namely SST ═ SSE + SSA;
(7) the degree of freedom of the SSE is (n-k), i.e., k mean values can be determined; the degree of freedom of SSA is (k-1);
(8) the mean square error MSE in the group is obtained
(9) Obtain the mean square error MSA between groups
(10) Comparing the mean square errors between the groups to obtain a statistic F to be tested, wherein the statistic F comprises:
where the statistic F characterizes the difference between the "within-group variance and the between-group variance". If the difference between the two is small and the F value is small, the fact that no system error exists between the groups is indicated, namely the mean square error between the groups is not obviously different from the mean square error in the groups, at the moment, each sample has no obvious influence on the population, and any sample can represent the population.
(12) According to a given significance level alpha, the degree of freedom d of the molecule is looked up in an F distribution tablef1K-1, distribution degree of freedom df2N-k corresponds toCritical value of (F)α。
If F>FαIf so, the system error exists among the groups, and each group of samples can not represent the whole indiscriminately;
if F<FαAnd if so, the grouping mode is reasonable, and the data quantity in each group is the lower limit value of the minimum data quantity required by the calculation of the resource quantity required by the user.
Wherein the significance level α and the confidence interval PrHas a relationship of PrIn general, α is usually 0.05.
(13) Considering that there must be some relation between the samples and the population as long as the square sum of the inter-group factors is not zero, that is, the influence of the samples on the population is only a matter of significance or not. At this time, the bondable relation strength R2Judging the relationship between the sample and the population, statistically, it is generally considered that R is reached230% of the expressible samples had a significant impact on the population, where:
taking the Fuling area as an example, TOC data of the total organic carbon mass fraction of a reservoir of Wufeng-Longmaxi shale as an example, verification is carried out. The TOC data comprises 60 data individuals in total, and the total is divided into 6 groups of 10 data (table one); or the population was divided into 3 groups of 20 data each (table two).
Obtaining the F values in the table according to the calculation steps, and dividing the F values into 6 groups by taking 95% confidence as a standarda＝2.387，F>FaThe difference between groups is large; and for F divided into 3 groupsa＝3.169，F<FaAnd can be regarded as no difference between groups. In addition, the slave statistic R2It can be seen that when 6 groups of 10 data volumes are taken, the correlation between the sample and the population is close to the statistical significance limit (30%), namely, for the tectonic geological background of the Fuling box-shaped anticline, a resource calculation value with high accuracy is required, and the lower limit threshold of the data volume is 20. Data used if the evaluation result to be judged isIf the amount is less than 20, it is considered to be unreliable.
Watch 1
Watch two
It is worth mentioning that since no discussion is carried out aiming at the minimum data volume lower limit threshold value required by resource volume calculation at present, the establishment of the proposal and the implementation method means of the proposal is prior to the resource volume calculation work, the shale gas resource evaluation condition is fundamentally restricted, and the purpose of controlling the reliability of the resource evaluation result from the source can be finally achieved. Has stronger prospect, development and innovation. In addition, based on the working requirement and geological knowledge of shale gas resource evaluation, relevant geological data are sorted, processed and analyzed by a statistical means, all sample information in an evaluation unit is comprehensively considered, the influence of artificial subjective factors is reduced, and the authenticity, objectivity and reliability of an analysis result are improved.
In addition, the invention develops and evaluates the data, and carries out a series of work such as preprocessing, standardization and the like in the using process, so that the obtained result can be transversely compared among different blocks, different series of layers and even different types of parameters, and the practicability is stronger. Moreover, based on the data processing result obtained by the method, the geological specificity of the blocks with different shale gas enrichment and reservoir formation geological backgrounds can be indirectly represented, the internal logicality and the connectivity between numerical characteristics and geological knowledge are enhanced, and the significance is stronger.
In the embodiment of the invention, the obtained evaluation results to be judged can be grouped, namely, the N target shale gas geology evaluation parameters are randomly and uniformly divided into K groups, then, a first result of the F distribution-based single-factor variance analysis and a second result of the relationship strength analysis of the target shale gas geology evaluation parameters when K takes different values are respectively calculated, and then, all the target Ks which accord with the preset rule are determined in the Ks with different values. And finally, judging whether the evaluation result is reliable or not according to the relation between the ratio of the N to the maximum target K and the size of the M. The evaluation condition of the shale gas resource is fundamentally constrained by the calculated lower threshold of the minimum data volume required by the shale gas resource, and the purpose of controlling the reliability of the resource evaluation result from the source can be achieved, so that the reliability of any evaluation result can be judged based on the lower threshold of the minimum data volume.
It should be noted that, based on the lower threshold of the minimum data size, the method may also be used to guide how to generate a reliable evaluation result of the shale gas resource, and the specific processing is as follows:
firstly, randomly and averagely dividing preset shale gas geological evaluation parameters with Q data volumes of a target area into P groups.
Wherein Q and P are positive integers, and P is more than or equal to 2 and less than or equal to Q.
In some embodiments, the target area may be any area containing shale gas resources, such as the Fuling area. The shale gas geological evaluation parameters may be any parameter used to evaluate shale gas resources, such as the reservoir total organic carbon mass fraction TQC.
Secondly, a first result of the single-factor analysis of variance based on the F distribution and a second result based on the relationship strength analysis, which are preset shale gas geological evaluation parameters when the P takes different values, are respectively calculated.
Then, all targets P meeting the preset rule are determined in the P with different values.
The preset rule is that a first result corresponding to the target P is smaller than a first threshold, and a second result corresponding to the target P is smaller than a second threshold.
It should be noted that, the processing in steps S120-S140 may be referred to for the above processing, and is not described here again.
And finally, generating an evaluation result of the shale gas resource amount of the target area according to any one group corresponding to the maximum target P.
In some embodiments, after all the targets P are obtained, the largest target P may be determined in order of magnitude. In this way, the preset shale gas geological evaluation parameters with the data volume of Q in the target area are randomly and averagely divided into the minimum target P groups, and each group can represent the total, so that any one group corresponding to the maximum target P can be grouped to serve as the data basis of the shale gas resource volume of the evaluation target area. And then, generating an evaluation result of the shale gas resource amount of the target area according to a general process of resource evaluation.
Based on the method for judging the shale gas resource evaluation reliability provided by the embodiment, correspondingly, the invention also provides a specific implementation manner of the device for judging the shale gas resource evaluation reliability, which is applied to the method for judging the shale gas resource evaluation reliability. Please see the examples below.
As shown in fig. 2, an apparatus 200 for determining shale gas resource evaluation reliability is provided, the apparatus comprising:
an obtaining module 210, configured to obtain an evaluation result to be determined; the total number of data volumes of target shale gas geology evaluation parameters corresponding to the evaluation result is N, the data volumes of the target shale gas geology evaluation parameters actually used by the evaluation result are M, and both N and M are positive integers;
the grouping module 220 is used for randomly and uniformly dividing the N target shale gas geology evaluation parameters into K groups, wherein K is a positive integer and is more than or equal to 2 and less than or equal to N;
a calculating module 230, configured to calculate a first result of the single-factor analysis of variance based on F distribution and a second result based on the relationship strength analysis of the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter when K takes different values, respectively;
a determining module 240, configured to determine all target ks that meet a preset rule among the ks with different values; the preset rule is that a first result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a first threshold value, and a second result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a second threshold value;
and a judging module 250, configured to judge that the evaluation result is unreliable if the ratio of N to the maximum target K is greater than M, and otherwise judge that the evaluation result is reliable.
In one possible implementation, the calculation module is further configured to:
when K takes a first value, calculating the sum of squares of errors in groups and the sum of squares of errors between groups of the first value, wherein the first value is any one of different values;
calculating the intra-group mean square error and the inter-group mean square error of the first numerical number of groups according to the degree of freedom of the intra-group square sum and the degree of freedom of the inter-group square sum;
and determining the ratio of the inter-group mean square error and the intra-group mean square error of the first numerical value of the groups as a first result of taking the first numerical value of K.
In one possible implementation, the first threshold is a corresponding F value in the F distribution table of the degree of freedom of the intra-group error sum of squares and the degree of freedom of the inter-group error sum of squares.
In one possible implementation, the calculation module is further configured to:
when K takes a second value, calculating the sum of squares of errors in groups and the sum of squares of errors between groups of the second value, wherein the second value is any one of different values;
and determining a ratio of the interclass squared error sum to the total squared error sum for the second number of groups as a second result of the second number of K values, wherein the total squared error sum is a sum of the interclass squared error sum and the total squared error sum for the second number of groups.
In the embodiment of the invention, the obtained evaluation results to be judged can be grouped, namely, the N target shale gas geology evaluation parameters are randomly and uniformly divided into K groups, then, a first result of the F distribution-based single-factor variance analysis and a second result of the relationship strength analysis of the target shale gas geology evaluation parameters when K takes different values are respectively calculated, and then, all the target Ks which accord with the preset rule are determined in the Ks with different values. And finally, judging whether the evaluation result is reliable or not according to the relation between the ratio of the N to the maximum target K and the size of the M. The evaluation condition of the shale gas resource is fundamentally constrained by the calculated lower threshold of the minimum data volume required by the shale gas resource, and the purpose of controlling the reliability of the resource evaluation result from the source can be achieved, so that the reliability of any evaluation result can be judged based on the lower threshold of the minimum data volume.
Fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 3, the electronic apparatus 3 of this embodiment includes: a processor 30, a memory 31 and a computer program 32 stored in said memory 31 and executable on said processor 30. The processor 30 executes the computer program 32 to implement the steps in the above-mentioned embodiments of the method for determining the evaluation reliability of the shale gas resource, such as the steps 110 to 150 shown in fig. 1. Alternatively, the processor 30, when executing the computer program 32, implements the functions of the modules/units in the above-mentioned device embodiments, such as the functions of the modules 210 to 250 shown in fig. 2.
Illustratively, the computer program 32 may be partitioned into one or more modules/units that are stored in the memory 31 and executed by the processor 30 to implement the present invention. The one or more modules/units may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing specific functions, which are used to describe the execution of the computer program 32 in the electronic device 3. For example, the computer program 32 may be divided into the modules 210 to 250 shown in fig. 2.
The electronic device 3 may be a desktop computer, a notebook, a palm computer, a cloud server, or other computing devices. The electronic device may include, but is not limited to, a processor 30, a memory 31. It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that fig. 3 is merely an example of the electronic device 3, and does not constitute a limitation of the electronic device 3, and may include more or less components than those shown, or combine certain components, or different components, for example, the electronic device may also include input output devices, network access devices, buses, etc.
The Processor 30 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), other general purpose Processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, discrete Gate or transistor logic device, discrete hardware component, or the like. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like.
The memory 31 may be an internal storage unit of the electronic device 3, such as a hard disk or a memory of the electronic device 3. The memory 31 may also be an external storage device of the electronic device 3, such as a plug-in hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) Card, a Flash memory Card (Flash Card), and the like, which are provided on the electronic device 3. Further, the memory 31 may also include both an internal storage unit and an external storage device of the electronic device 3. The memory 31 is used for storing the computer program and other programs and data required by the electronic device. The memory 31 may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, only the above-mentioned division of the functional units and modules is illustrated, and in practical applications, the above-mentioned function distribution may be performed by different functional units and modules according to needs, that is, the internal structure of the apparatus is divided into different functional units or modules to perform all or part of the above-mentioned functions. Each functional unit and module in the embodiments may be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated in one unit, and the integrated unit may be implemented in a form of hardware, or in a form of software functional unit. In addition, specific names of the functional units and modules are only for convenience of distinguishing from each other, and are not used for limiting the protection scope of the present application. The specific working processes of the units and modules in the system may refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and are not described herein again.
In the above embodiments, the descriptions of the respective embodiments have respective emphasis, and reference may be made to the related descriptions of other embodiments for parts that are not described or illustrated in a certain embodiment.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the various illustrative elements and algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware or combinations of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the implementation. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present invention.
In the embodiments provided in the present invention, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus/terminal device and method may be implemented in other ways. For example, the above-described embodiments of the apparatus/terminal device are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the modules or units is only one logical division, and there may be other divisions when actually implemented, for example, a plurality of units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not executed. In addition, the shown or discussed mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection may be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, and may be in an electrical, mechanical or other form.
The units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the embodiment.
In addition, functional units in the embodiments of the present invention may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated into one unit. The integrated unit can be realized in a form of hardware, and can also be realized in a form of a software functional unit.
The integrated modules/units, if implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as separate products, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, all or part of the processes in the method according to the above embodiments may also be implemented by a computer program, which may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above embodiments of the method for determining the shale gas resource evaluation reliability may be implemented. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, usb disk, removable hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer Memory, Read-Only Memory (ROM), Random Access Memory (RAM), electrical carrier wave signals, telecommunications signals, software distribution medium, and the like. It should be noted that the computer readable medium may contain content that is subject to appropriate increase or decrease as required by legislation and patent practice in jurisdictions, for example, in some jurisdictions, computer readable media does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunications signals as is required by legislation and patent practice.
The above-mentioned embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; such modifications and substitutions do not substantially depart from the spirit and scope of the embodiments of the present invention, and are intended to be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A judgment method for evaluation reliability of shale gas resources is characterized by comprising the following steps:
obtaining an evaluation result to be judged; the total number of data volumes of target shale gas geology evaluation parameters corresponding to the evaluation result is N, the data volumes of the target shale gas geology evaluation parameters actually used by the evaluation result are M, and both N and M are positive integers;
uniformly dividing N target shale gas geological evaluation parameters into K groups randomly, wherein K is a positive integer and is more than or equal to 2 and less than or equal to N;
respectively calculating a first result of the single-factor variance analysis based on the F distribution and a second result based on the relation strength analysis of the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter when K takes different values;
determining all target Ks which accord with a preset rule in Ks with different values; the preset rule is that the first result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a first threshold value, and the second result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a second threshold value;
and if the ratio of the N to the maximum target K is greater than M, judging that the evaluation result is unreliable, otherwise, judging that the evaluation result is reliable.
2. The method for determining the evaluation reliability of the shale gas resource according to claim 1, wherein the step of respectively calculating the first result of the F-distribution-based one-way anova of the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter when K takes different values comprises the steps of:
when K takes a first value, calculating the square sum of errors in groups and the square sum of errors between groups of the first value, wherein the first value is any one of the different values;
calculating the intra-group mean square error and the inter-group mean square error of the first numerical number of groups according to the degree of freedom of the intra-group square sum and the degree of freedom of the inter-group square sum;
determining a ratio of inter-group mean square error to intra-group mean square error of the first number of packets as the first result of K taking the first number.
3. The method for determining the evaluation reliability of the shale gas resource as claimed in claim 2, wherein the first threshold is an F value corresponding to the degree of freedom of the intra-group sum of squared errors and the degree of freedom of the inter-group sum of squared errors in an F distribution table.
4. The method for determining the shale gas resource evaluation reliability as claimed in claim 1, wherein the respectively calculating the second result based on the relationship strength analysis of the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter when K takes different values comprises:
when K takes a second value, calculating the square sum of errors in groups and the square sum of errors between groups of the second numerical value, wherein the second value is any one of the different numerical values;
determining a ratio of a sum of squared errors between groups to a sum of squares of errors between groups of the second numerical grouping to the second result with K taken to be the second numerical value, wherein the sum of squares of errors between groups to the sum of squares of errors of the second numerical grouping is the sum of squares of errors between groups to the sum of squares of errors of the second numerical grouping.
5. The utility model provides a judgment device of shale gas resource evaluation reliability which characterized in that includes:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring an evaluation result to be judged; the total number of data volumes of target shale gas geology evaluation parameters corresponding to the evaluation result is N, the data volumes of the target shale gas geology evaluation parameters actually used by the evaluation result are M, and both N and M are positive integers;
the grouping module is used for randomly and uniformly dividing the N target shale gas geology evaluation parameters into K groups, wherein K is a positive integer and is more than or equal to 2 and less than or equal to N;
the calculation module is used for respectively calculating a first result of the single-factor analysis of variance based on the F distribution and a second result based on the relationship strength analysis of the target shale gas geological evaluation parameter when the K takes different values;
the determining module is used for determining all target Ks which accord with a preset rule in the Ks with different values; the preset rule is that the first result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a first threshold value, and the second result corresponding to the target K is smaller than a second threshold value;
and the judging module is used for judging that the evaluation result is unreliable if the ratio of the N to the maximum target K is greater than M, and otherwise, judging that the evaluation result is reliable.
6. The apparatus for determining the reliability of shale gas resource evaluation as claimed in claim 5, wherein the calculation module is further configured to:
when K takes a first value, calculating the square sum of errors in groups and the square sum of errors between groups of the first value, wherein the first value is any one of the different values;
calculating the intra-group mean square error and the inter-group mean square error of the first numerical number of groups according to the degree of freedom of the intra-group square sum and the degree of freedom of the inter-group square sum;
determining a ratio of inter-group mean square error to intra-group mean square error of the first number of packets as the first result of K taking the first number.
7. The apparatus for determining the evaluation reliability of the shale gas resource as claimed in claim 6, wherein the first threshold is an F value corresponding to the degree of freedom of the intra-group sum of squared errors and the degree of freedom of the inter-group sum of squared errors in an F distribution table.
8. The apparatus for determining the reliability of shale gas resource evaluation as claimed in claim 5, wherein the calculation module is further configured to:
when K takes a second value, calculating the square sum of errors in groups and the square sum of errors between groups of the second numerical value, wherein the second value is any one of the different numerical values;
determining a ratio of a sum of squared errors between groups to a sum of squares of errors between groups of the second numerical grouping to the second result with K taken to be the second numerical value, wherein the sum of squares of errors between groups to the sum of squares of errors of the second numerical grouping is the sum of squares of errors between groups to the sum of squares of errors of the second numerical grouping.
9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the steps of the method according to any of claims 1 to 4 are implemented when the computer program is executed by the processor.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 4.
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| CN116842327A (en) * | 2023-05-18 | 2023-10-03 | 中国地质大学（北京） | Method, device and equipment for processing abnormal data in resource quantity evaluation |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN116842327A (en) * | 2023-05-18 | 2023-10-03 | 中国地质大学（北京） | Method, device and equipment for processing abnormal data in resource quantity evaluation |
| CN116842327B (en) * | 2023-05-18 | 2024-05-10 | 中国地质大学（北京） | Method, device and equipment for processing abnormal data in resource quantity evaluation |
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