CN113379218A - Market state evaluation method and evaluation system based on cigarette sales data - Google Patents
Market state evaluation method and evaluation system based on cigarette sales data Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a market state evaluation method and an evaluation system based on cigarette sales data, starting from the most root factors influencing the cigarette market state, in particular to the analysis and evaluation of the market state by comprehensively introducing the quantity factor index, the price factor index, the storage factor index, the circulation factor index and the like in an innovative way, deeply researching the influence path and logic of each factor on the market state, then selecting a proper evaluation index, the indexes are subjected to statistical analysis and processing, accurate and reliable calculation formulas are provided for the quantity index, the price index and the storage index, and finally, the market state evaluation comprehensive index capable of comprehensively and objectively reflecting the market state level is calculated.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of cigarette market analysis, in particular to a market state evaluation method and system based on cigarette sales data.
Background
As an important backbone of national economy, tobacco tax has been an important source of national financial income. Under the new trend that the Chinese economy is shifted to high-quality development from a high-speed growth stage, the tobacco industry better adapts to the requirements of the era, keeps growth power and potential and provides new kinetic energy for the high-quality development of the national economy. In 2019, the national tobacco bureau Zhang Jianmin has proposed a sixteen-character policy of total amount control, slight tightening balance, reasonable acceleration and continuous high value. In 4 months of 2020, the sixteen-character policy is further refined by the iron vice captain of the national tobacco administration section, and the concept of 'pretty, flat, soft' is provided. Therefore, how to accurately and effectively evaluate the cigarette market is not only the basis for realizing oriented reform of the cigarette marketing market, but also the basis and the difficulty of future cigarette marketing work. In the specific work, the evaluation of the cigarette market state does not need to simply refine and qualitatively judge 'slightly tight balance', but needs to measure a 'measuring scale', adopts a proper index system and a scientific calculation method to carry out quantitative analysis and accurate research and judgment on the cigarette market, so that a new pattern of future cigarette market development is clearly drawn, the core position of market state regulation and control in the cigarette marketing work is laid, a cigarette marketing work closed loop of 'from state to state' is created, and the great revolution of 'one set of chess' in the national cigarette industry is introduced.
In the prior art, researches related to cigarette market states mainly focus on aspects of market state evaluation indexes, cigarette market state monitoring, cigarette marketing strategy regulation, brand management and the like. For example, in the document of research and application of an intelligent evaluation model of cigarette market running state (tobacco science and technology, 2018, 51(7): 96-102), the intelligent evaluation model of the cigarette market running state is constructed by adopting a big data technology and a machine learning algorithm, and compared with the problems of unscientific evaluation, low efficiency and the like of the traditional market running state, the method can timely and accurately reflect the health condition and the development trend of cigarette brands. In the application of the five-element analysis method in the regulation and control of the cigarette marketing strategy (Chinese market 2020, 28: 131-132), the five-element analysis method comprising the commercial stock-sale ratio, the foot rate, the foot order, the market price and the social inventory is applied to the evaluation of the cigarette market state and the release strategy of the main goods source.
From the above, most of the existing documents start the research on the cigarette market from one aspect, the research method is to select related indexes as much as possible for data modeling, but some indexes are not detailed and precise in selection analysis and calculation, and index design related to cigarette market state evaluation does not have a consistent compiling method and principle, so that the cigarette market state evaluation under different standards is different due to uncertainty of index selection and non-uniformity of the index compiling method, and further the scientificity and comparability of results are influenced.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention aims to provide a market state evaluation method based on cigarette sales data, aiming at the defects of the existing research, starting from the most root factors influencing the cigarette market state, the quantity factor index, the price factor index, the storage factor index and the cigarette circulation factor are comprehensively introduced into the measure of the market state, the influence path and the logic of each factor on the market state are deeply explored, then the proper evaluation index is selected, the indexes are statistically analyzed and processed, finally, the index capable of comprehensively and objectively reflecting the market state level is calculated, and the purposes of scientific measure, unified standard and accurate quantification of the market state are achieved.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the market state evaluation method based on cigarette sales data comprises the following steps:
s1, connecting with each tobacco bureau database, and acquiring historical batch zero data, batch zero price difference, circulation price, stock-sale ratio, inflow and outflow of true and false cigarettes and other market acquisition data of cigarettes of each brand in different regional consumption markets;
s2, preprocessing data: the method comprises the steps of extracting sales data classification definition quantity factor indexes, price factor indexes, storage factor indexes and circulation factor indexes of various models and specifications, wherein the quantity factor indexes comprise the number of required customers, strategy quantity, ordering quantity and required quantity data, the price factor indexes comprise retail price, wholesale price, guide price and circulation price data, the storage factor indexes comprise customer stock-sales ratio and broken goods rate data, and the circulation factor indexes comprise outflow check quantity and inflow check quantity data;
s3, calculating each evaluation index:
s31: and (3) calculating a quantity index: calculating a quantity index reflecting the regional market supply and demand relationship according to the quantity factor index;
s32: and (3) calculating a price index: calculating a price index reflecting market profitability or profit according to the price factor index;
s33: and (3) storage index calculation: calculating a stock index reflecting the total stock of the cigarettes in the market according to the stock factor index;
s4, calculating a market state evaluation comprehensive index: and according to the quantity index, the price index and the storage index calculated in the step S3, performing composite calculation to obtain a market state evaluation comprehensive index for pre-judging the future market state, wherein the market state evaluation comprehensive index is used as the launching basis of the cigarette sales sources of various specifications.
Further, the quantitative index calculation formula in step S31 is as follows:
wherein: the policy subscription rate is subscription amount/policy amount, and the demand satisfaction rate is subscription amount/demand amount.
Further, the strategic step-size ratio and
the value range of (A) is 0 to 1.
Further, the price index calculation formula in step S32 is as follows:
wherein: the retail price/guide price reflects the price change of the sales link, and the larger the value is, the more the cigarette with the standard is in high price; the circulation price/wholesale price reflects the price change of the circulation link and is used as a correction of the retail price index, and when the circulation price is greater than the wholesale price, the retail price index is positively promoted; when the circulation price is less than the wholesale price, the retail price index is reversely lowered.
Further, correcting the price index standardization:
the normalized valence index ranges from 0 to 1.
Further, in step S33, the stored index calculation formula is:
modified storage index log10The storage index is the index of the index,
wherein the corrected customer stock-sales ratio is the customer stock-sales ratio x (1-outage rate),
the ratio of the number of customers with the demand, the stock of the last week of 0 and the orders of the week and the last week of 0 to the total number of the customers is adopted as the outage rate, and the value range of the standardized stock index is 0-1.
Further, the market state evaluation comprehensive index calculation formula in step S4 is as follows:
the value range of the market state evaluation comprehensive index is 0-1.
The value range of the market state evaluation comprehensive index is divided into five intervals by a box separation method, and the five intervals are matched and correspond to five market states of a pretty market, a tight market, a flat market, a loose market and a soft market, wherein the market state evaluation comprehensive index range (0-0.262) corresponds to a soft market, (0.262-0.402) corresponds to a loose market, (0.402-0.577) corresponds to a flat market, and (0.577-0.705) corresponds to a tight market, and (0.705-1) corresponds to a pretty market.
Further, calculating the correction direction of the market state evaluation comprehensive index according to the circulation factor index, calculating a market activity level threshold value t as the annual acquisition quantity/annual sales quantity of the cigarettes of a certain specification, and correcting the market state evaluation comprehensive index upwards when the average acquisition quantity of the cigarettes of the certain specification flows into the acquisition quantity in nearly 8 weeks or the average sales quantity of the cigarettes of the specification in nearly 8 weeks is more than t; and when the average outflow check quantity of the cigarettes of a certain specification in nearly 8 weeks/the average sales quantity of the cigarettes of the specification in nearly 8 weeks is larger than t, downward correcting the comprehensive market state evaluation index.
Further, the evaluation system of the market state evaluation method based on the cigarette sales data comprises an intermediate database, a data graphic display interface and a goods source release module, wherein the intermediate database is arranged on the cloud server and connected with the databases of the tobacco bureaus, the data graphic display interface comprises a large visual dynamic data display screen, and the goods source release module comprises a regional cigarette market state analysis module and a cigarette release week strategy generation module with various model specifications.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. the invention starts from the most root factors influencing the cigarette market state, particularly creatively and comprehensively introduces a quantity factor index, a price factor index, a storage factor index, a circulation factor index and the like into the analysis and evaluation of the market state, deeply explores the influence path and logic of each factor on the market state, selects a proper evaluation index, performs statistical analysis and processing on the index, finally calculates the market state evaluation comprehensive index capable of comprehensively and objectively reflecting the market state level, and achieves the purposes of scientific measure, unified standard and accurate market state quantification.
2. The quantity index, the price index and the storage index obtained by the calculation and analysis formula are good in reliability, an index system containing the factors of the quantity, the price, the storage and the flow of the cigarettes is constructed, and then the comprehensive index for scientifically measuring the cigarette market state is obtained.
3. The invention provides new standards and requirements for the establishment of some marketing indexes and data acquisition during data preprocessing, and is beneficial to promoting the global conspiracy and effective development of future cigarette marketing work and market state evaluation.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating the distribution of storage index values according to the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a large screen graphical interface for visualization of dynamic data display in the evaluation system of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the following figures and specific examples:
before developing a market state evaluation system based on provincial and municipal linked cigarette sales data, the inventor constructs an evaluation system comprising four integers of 'quantity', 'price', 'storage' and 'flow' based on four factors of supply and demand quantity, profit level, available supply capacity and circulation condition of a cigarette market by analyzing and screening all original cigarette marketing indexes in sales data of various provincial and municipal regions one by one; wherein, the three factors of 'amount', 'price' and 'storage' are mutually influenced and jointly act on the market state; the circulation of the cigarettes is an illegal circulation phenomenon which is bred under the influence of the driving of high profit and unbalanced supply of goods sources, thereby not only disturbing the normal order of the cigarette monopoly market, but also influencing the benefit of consumers; particularly, the circulation of the cigarettes is a game of market supply and demand to a great extent, and is inevitably fed back to the market state, so that the real market state level is covered, the market state measurement is distorted and distorted to a certain extent, and therefore, the cigarette circulation factors are required to be used for correcting the market state indexes reflected by the quantity, price and storage, and the accurate quantification and effective measurement of the market state are further realized.
Table 1 shows the cigarette market state influencing factors and the main indexes thereof:
TABLE 1
Table 2 is the original index associated with the quantity factor index therein:
| numbering | Index name | Description of the index | Index class |
| 1 | Number of days of company outage | Original index | Quantitative factor |
| 2 | Purchase amount | Original index | Quantitative factor |
| 3 | Policy volume | Original index | Quantitative factor |
| 4 | Demand volume | Original index | |
| 5 | Amount of orders | Original index | |
| 6 | Total number of customers | Original index | Quantitative factor |
| 7 | Number of clients with newspaper demand | Original index | Quantitative factor |
| 8 | Number of clients ordering | Original index | |
| 9 | Number of disconnected customers | Original index | |
| 10 | Number of policy target clients | Original index | Quantitative factor |
TABLE 2
The impact of the "volume" factor on market status: as shown in the above table, the original indexes reflecting the "volume" factor include 10 indexes such as company outage days, purchase volume, strategy volume, demand volume, and the like, and each index has the following specific functions:
(1) purchase quantity: the tobacco business company purchases the quantity from the industrial company, the index comprises two main bodies of the business company and the industrial company, and the business company reflects a wholesale link and does not relate to a main body of a retail user.
(2) Strategy amount: the maximum limit of the tobacco commercial company with a certain specification to be sold to the retail user, the index comprises two main bodies of the commercial company and the retail user, and the supply end of the cigarette wholesale and retail links is reflected.
(3) Demand amount: the demand reported by the retail user to the commercial company has indexes including two main bodies of the commercial company and the retail user, and reflects the demand end of the cigarette wholesale and retail links.
(4) Order quantity: the actual ordering amount of the retail user from the commercial company comprises two main bodies of the commercial company and the retail user, and reflects the demand end of the cigarette wholesale and retail links.
(5) Social sales volume: the actual sales volume of the retail user and the index comprise two main bodies of the retail user and the consumer, and the relationship between the retail user and the consumer in the cigarette retail process is reflected.
In conclusion, three original indexes of strategy quantity, order quantity and demand quantity are closely related to the supply and demand relationship of the market. From the supply perspective, the order quantity directly reflects the degree of response of the demand side to the supplier strategy quantity; from a demand perspective, the order quantity directly reflects the degree of satisfaction of the supplier to the demand quantity of the demand party.
Impact of the "price" factor on market status: the relationship between the price of the cigarette and the market state is that the price reflects the quality of the market state through the profitability or the profit level. However, the retail price index of cigarettes in the prior art does not truly reflect the market state and profit margin of cigarettes, and particularly, when the circulation of cigarettes exists in the market, how the profit of the circulation link affects the market state is unknown. Therefore, the retail price, the wholesale price, the guide price and the circulation price related to the cigarette sales link and the circulation link are required to be selected as starting points, and the profit level of the cigarettes is comprehensively examined from two aspects of normal operation and circulation impact. The ratio of the retail price of the cigarette to the guide price is a retail price index, the profit level of a selling link is reflected, and if the retail price index is higher, the market demand of the cigarette is very vigorous, and the corresponding market state is better. The circulation price is the cost of the cigarettes in the circulation process, and the larger the ratio of the circulation price to the wholesale price is, the larger the demand of the cigarettes in the circulation link is, and the better the corresponding market state is.
The impact of the "stock" factor on market status: the "stock" factor reflects the overall stock level of cigarettes in the market, and more directly, the number of days that the existing cigarette stock is available for sale. The larger the stock is, the lower the consumption capacity or demand degree of the cigarette in the market is, and further the market state is lower. On the contrary, if the stock is smaller, the demand of cigarettes on the market is vigorous, the consumption is larger, and the market state is higher. The impact of inventory on market status is negative. And finally, selecting the customer stock-sale ratio and the stock failure rate as key indexes for calculating the stock index through screening and research one by one.
The impact of "flow" factors on market status: "influent and effluent" also reflects, to some extent, the supply and demand relationships of regional markets. When the outflow amount of the cigarette is found in the market, the demand of the current market for the cigarettes is weak, and the market state is loose; when the market has inflow acquisition amount, the demand of the current market for cigarettes is considered to be vigorous, and the market state becomes tight. Therefore, it is most straightforward and effective to examine the impact of cigarette circulation on market conditions based on the amount of in-flow or out-flow findings.
In summary, the market state evaluation method based on cigarette sales data comprises the following steps:
s1, connecting with each tobacco bureau database, and acquiring historical batch zero data of each brand of cigarettes in different regional consumption markets, wherein the historical batch zero data comprises batch zero price difference, circulation price, stock-sale ratio and data collected by inflow and outflow markets of true and false cigarettes;
s2, preprocessing data: the method comprises the steps of extracting sales data classification definition quantity factor indexes, price factor indexes, storage factor indexes and circulation factor indexes of various models and specifications, wherein the quantity factor indexes comprise the number of required customers, strategy quantity, ordering quantity and required quantity data, the price factor indexes comprise retail price, wholesale price, guide price and circulation price data, the storage factor indexes comprise customer stock-sales ratio and broken goods rate data, and the circulation factor indexes comprise outflow check quantity and inflow check quantity data; during data preprocessing, the sales data in the databases of the tobacco bureaus are classified, defined and classified according to various indexes according to the research; python language can be selected for data processing;
s3, calculating each evaluation index:
s31: and (3) calculating a quantity index: calculating a quantity index reflecting the regional market supply and demand relationship according to the quantity factor index; the relationship among the strategy quantity, the demand quantity and the order quantity is as follows:
(1) when the supply is required, the market state is looser, and at the moment, the strategy quantity is required, namely the order quantity/the strategy quantity < the order quantity/the required quantity, namely the strategy order rate < the requirement satisfaction rate;
(2) when the supply is equal to the demand, the market state reaches the balance, and at this time, the strategy amount is equal to the demand amount, that is, the order amount/the strategy amount is equal to the order amount/the demand amount, that is, the strategy order rate is equal to the demand satisfaction rate;
(3) when the demand is supplied, the market state is tighter, and at this time, the strategy quantity is smaller than the demand quantity, namely the order quantity/the strategy quantity, and the order quantity/the demand quantity, namely the strategy order-foot rate;
therefore, two derived indexes of the strategy subscription rate and the demand satisfaction rate not only simultaneously contain the three most important original indexes related to the 'quantity' index, but also reflect the supply and demand relationship to a certain extent,
the calculation formula of the obtained quantity index is as follows:
wherein: the strategy ordering rate is ordering amount/strategy amount, and the demand satisfying rate is ordering amount/demand amount; (1-demand satisfaction rate) is called demand starvation rate; when the strategy ordering rate and the demand shortage rate are higher, the quantity index value for measuring the market state is larger, and the market is more and more beautiful.
In order to avoid information interference generated by local market release of cigarettes of different specifications, a 'demand unsatisfied rate multiplied by demand customer proportion' division number is used as a correction coefficient. The significance of the quantity index at this time is the tension of the market supply and demand relationship.
In order to balance the influence of each sub-index in the calculation of the market state evaluation comprehensive index and not be influenced by dimensions, the quantity index needs to be standardized: make strategy in volume index reserve rate and
the values are all between 0 and 1.
S32: and (3) calculating a price index: calculating a price index reflecting market profitability or profit according to the price factor index; the price index calculation formula is as follows:
wherein: the retail price/guide price reflects the price change of the sales link, and the larger the value is, the more the cigarette with the standard is in high price; the circulation price/wholesale price reflects the price change of the circulation link and is used as a correction of the retail price index, and when the circulation price is greater than the wholesale price, the retail price index is positively promoted; when the circulation price is less than the wholesale price, the retail price index is reversely lowered.
During price index calculation, the numerical range of the price index calculated by adopting historical data is between 0.1 and 1.1, and in order to eliminate unbalanced factors among indexes, the price index is standardized to be between 0 and 1, namely when the retail price index is less than or equal to 0.9, the retail price index is standardized to be 0.01; when the retail price index is larger than or equal to 1.1, the retail price index is normalized to 1, and the price index is normalized and corrected as follows:
the value range of the standardized valence index is 0-1.
S33: and (3) storage index calculation: calculating a stock index reflecting the total stock of the cigarettes in the market according to the stock factor index; in order to calculate the inventory index, a modified customer inventory and sales ratio value needs to be calculated:
the corrected customer stock-sales ratio is the proportion of the number of customers with demand, the stock of the previous week is 0, and the orders of the current week and the previous week are both 0 to the total number of customers, the corrected customer stock-sales ratio is calculated from historical data, the smaller the value is, the tighter the market state is, and for the convenience of calculation and analysis, the reciprocal of the customer stock-sales ratio is selected to calculate the stock index:
when the corrected customer stock-sales ratio is less than 1, corresponding to the situation that the stock is insufficient to maintain the sales volume for 1 day, the stock index is very large, which indicates that the market state is very tight, and is set to 1; when the corrected customer stock-sale ratio is large, the stock index is small, which indicates that the market state is loose and is set to be 0.01, and the value range of the stock index is between 0.01 and 1.
Through calculation and analysis of historical data, the existence index is found to present serious right bias, as shown in fig. 1, in order to weaken the influence of the biased distribution on the abnormal value of the existence index calculation and correct the data to the normal distribution as much as possible, the following logarithmic transformation is adopted:
modified storage index log10The storage index is the index of the index,
the value range of the correction memory index is (-2, 1), and the normalized memory index is calculated for uniform calculation:
the normalized storage index has a value in the range of 0 to 1.
S4, calculating a market state evaluation comprehensive index: according to the quantity index, the price index and the storage index calculated in the step S3, performing composite calculation to obtain a market state evaluation comprehensive index for pre-judging the future market state, wherein the market state evaluation comprehensive index is used as the release basis of cigarette sales sources with various specifications; the market state evaluation comprehensive index calculation formula is as follows:
the value range of the market state evaluation comprehensive index is 0-1.
The value range of the market state evaluation comprehensive index is divided into five intervals by a box dividing method, and the five intervals are matched and correspond to five market states of 'pretty, tight, flat, loose and soft', wherein the market state evaluation comprehensive index range (0-0.262) corresponds to soft, (0.262-0.402) corresponds to loose, (0.402-0.577) corresponds to flat, (0.577-0.705) corresponds to tight, and (0.705-1) corresponds to pretty. The binning method is to smoothly store data values by considering surrounding values, and indicates that the same number of data exist in different bins by "bin depth" and indicates a value interval of each bin value by "bin width". And the market state evaluation comprehensive index is divided into five intervals by adopting a box dividing method, and the five intervals correspond to the five market states, so that visual and vivid display is facilitated.
Further, the evaluation system of the market state evaluation method based on the cigarette sales data comprises an intermediate database, a data graphic display interface and a goods source release module, wherein the intermediate database is arranged on the cloud server and connected with the tobacco bureau databases, and the data intermediate database is constructed to avoid load impact on the existing databases caused by evaluation analysis and query; the data graphical display interface comprises a large visual dynamic data display screen as shown in figure 2, and the goods source delivery module comprises a regional cigarette market state analysis module and a cigarette delivery week strategy generation module with various model specifications.
During actual operation, dynamic sales data are updated every week, tobacco sales are put in sources on time every week, the market state evaluation comprehensive index is continuously analyzed and calculated according to the updated sales data, the calculated market state evaluation comprehensive index can be well used for guiding putting bases of sales sources of various specifications in the next two weeks and two weeks, the market is ensured to be slightly tight and balanced, stock overstock or illegal circulation and commodity circulation are avoided, and the sales profits are guaranteed. After the evaluation system is used up, the system can guide the delivery more timely and accurately along with the continuous accumulation of the operation data.
The market state evaluation comprehensive index and actual data are compared and verified:
and selecting 46 key specifications of cigarette marketing data of Xiamen city from 10 th week to 22 th week in 2019 to 2020 for market state index calculation, wherein due to space limitation, only calculation results of part of specifications from 1 st week to 22 nd week in 2020 are displayed, and verification and effect evaluation are performed according to the calculation results.
The following table 3 shows the results of the fractional and total index calculations for september (blue) at week 1 of 2020 to week 22 of 2020:
TABLE 3
As can be seen from the above table, the quantitative index is centered between 0.72 and 0.76, the valence index is centered between 0.8 and 0.82, the storage index is centered between 0.75 and 0.80, and the market state evaluation comprehensive index is centered between 0.76 and 0.82. In general, the market state of the seven wolfs (blue) in the 1 st week to the 22 nd week of 2020 is good and is at the level of the middle upstream, the calculated values in the table are compared with the practical experience of the actual marketing work of the market, and the results are verified to be basically consistent with the actual behavior of the tobacco sales every week, which shows that the market state evaluation comprehensive index is accurate and the reliability is good, and the seven wolfs (blue) can be used as the release basis of sales sources of various specifications in the future.
Because the market state evaluation comprehensive index does not examine the influence of cigarette circulation factors, in order to further improve the prediction precision, the market state evaluation comprehensive index calculated according to the historical data is compared and verified with the actual market state, and then the market state evaluation comprehensive index is corrected by the circulation factors:
firstly, calculating a market activity level threshold t according to a circulation factor index, wherein the t reflects the proportion of annual circulation acquisition amount occupying market sales volume and serves as a correction judgment reference:
t is the annual quantity of cigarettes of a certain specification;
that is, when the average inflow check quantity of a certain specification cigarette is more than t in nearly 8 weeks (the 8-week data is selected most reasonably according to data statistics, and data more than or less than 8 weeks can also be selected), the average inflow check quantity of the certain specification cigarette in nearly 8 weeks indicates that the total cigarette inflow quantity in the market is larger, and the real market state index is larger than the calculated value, so that the market state comprehensive index needs to be corrected upwards. Accordingly, the market state rating is revised one level upward. For example: if the market state is calculated by the index and is in a tight state, the real market state is pretty;
when the average cigarette outflow check quantity of a certain specification in nearly 8 weeks/the average cigarette sales quantity of the specification in nearly 8 weeks is larger than t, the fact that the total cigarette outflow quantity in the market is large and the real market state index is smaller than the calculated value indicates that the market state index needs to be corrected downwards. Accordingly, the market state rating is revised one level down. For example: and if the index calculates that the market state is in a tight state, the real market state is flat.
The above description is only an embodiment of the present invention, and not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and all equivalent structural changes made by using the contents of the present specification and the drawings, or applied directly or indirectly to other related technical fields, are included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. The market state evaluation method based on cigarette sales data is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, connecting with each tobacco bureau database, and acquiring historical batch zero data of each brand of cigarettes in different regional consumption markets, wherein the historical batch zero data comprises batch zero price difference, circulation price, stock-sale ratio and data collected by inflow and outflow markets of true and false cigarettes;
s2, preprocessing data: the method comprises the steps of extracting sales data classification definition quantity factor indexes, price factor indexes, storage factor indexes and circulation factor indexes of various models and specifications, wherein the quantity factor indexes comprise the number of required customers, strategy quantity, ordering quantity and required quantity data, the price factor indexes comprise retail price, wholesale price, guide price and circulation price data, the storage factor indexes comprise customer stock-sales ratio and broken goods rate data, and the circulation factor indexes comprise outflow check quantity and inflow check quantity data;
s3, calculating each evaluation index:
s31: and (3) calculating a quantity index: calculating a quantity index reflecting the regional market supply and demand relationship according to the quantity factor index;
s32: and (3) calculating a price index: calculating a price index reflecting market profitability or profit according to the price factor index;
s33: and (3) storage index calculation: calculating a stock index reflecting the total stock of the cigarettes in the market according to the stock factor index;
s4, calculating a market state evaluation comprehensive index: and according to the quantity index, the price index and the storage index calculated in the step S3, performing composite calculation to obtain a market state evaluation comprehensive index for pre-judging the future market state, wherein the market state evaluation comprehensive index is used as the launching basis of the cigarette sales sources of various specifications.
2. The cigarette sales data-based market state evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein: the quantitative index calculation formula in step S31 is:
wherein: the policy subscription rate is subscription amount/policy amount, and the demand satisfaction rate is subscription amount/demand amount.
3. The cigarette sales data-based market state evaluation method according to claim 2, wherein: strategic step coverage rate in the volume index and
the value range of (A) is 0 to 1.
4. The cigarette sales data-based market state evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein: the price index calculation formula in step S32 is:
wherein: the retail price/guide price reflects the price change of the sales link, and the larger the value is, the more the cigarette with the standard is in high price; the circulation price/wholesale price reflects the price change of the circulation link and is used as a correction of the retail price index, and when the circulation price is greater than the wholesale price, the retail price index is positively promoted; when the circulation price is less than the wholesale price, the retail price index is reversely lowered.
5. The cigarette sales data-based market state evaluation method according to claim 4, wherein: and (3) carrying out standardized correction on the price index:
the normalized valence index ranges from 0 to 1.
6. The cigarette sales data-based market state evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein: the memory index calculation formula in step S33 is:
modified storage index log10The storage index is the index of the index,
wherein the corrected customer stock-sales ratio is the customer stock-sales ratio x (1-outage rate),
the ratio of the number of customers with the demand, the stock of the last week of 0 and the orders of the week and the last week of 0 to the total number of customers is the outage rate; the normalized storage index has a value in the range of 0 to 1.
7. The cigarette sales data-based market state evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein: the market state evaluation comprehensive index calculation formula in the step S4 is as follows:
the value range of the market state evaluation comprehensive index is 0-1.
8. The cigarette sales data-based market state evaluation method according to claim 7, wherein: and dividing the value range of the market state evaluation comprehensive index into five intervals by adopting a box separation method, and matching and corresponding to five market states of pretty, tight, flat, loose and soft.
9. The cigarette sales data-based market state evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein: calculating the correction direction of the market state evaluation comprehensive index according to the circulation factor index, calculating the market activity level threshold value t as the annual acquisition quantity/annual sales quantity of the cigarettes with a certain specification, and correcting the market state evaluation comprehensive index upwards when the average acquisition quantity of the cigarettes with the certain specification flows into the cigarettes in nearly 8 weeks or the average sales quantity of the cigarettes in nearly 8 weeks is more than t; and when the average outflow check quantity of the cigarettes of a certain specification in nearly 8 weeks/the average sales quantity of the cigarettes of the specification in nearly 8 weeks is larger than t, downward correcting the comprehensive market state evaluation index.
10. The evaluation system of the cigarette sales data-based market state evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein: the system comprises an intermediate database, a data graphical display interface and a goods source releasing module, wherein the intermediate database is arranged on a cloud server and connected with databases of tobacco bureaus, the data graphical display interface comprises a large visual dynamic data display screen, and the goods source releasing module comprises a regional cigarette market state analysis module and a cigarette releasing week strategy generation module with various model specifications.
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| CN111582931A (en) * | 2020-05-06 | 2020-08-25 | 浪潮软件股份有限公司 | Cigarette market saturation evaluation method and system based on principal component analysis |
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| CN111582931A (en) * | 2020-05-06 | 2020-08-25 | 浪潮软件股份有限公司 | Cigarette market saturation evaluation method and system based on principal component analysis |
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