CN113378480A - Remaining service life prediction-based method and system for maintaining underwater Christmas tree system according to situations - Google Patents

Remaining service life prediction-based method and system for maintaining underwater Christmas tree system according to situations Download PDF

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CN113378480A
CN113378480A CN202110752771.6A CN202110752771A CN113378480A CN 113378480 A CN113378480 A CN 113378480A CN 202110752771 A CN202110752771 A CN 202110752771A CN 113378480 A CN113378480 A CN 113378480A
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valve
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蔡宝平
王远东
刘永红
孔祥地
张妍平
刘贵杰
冯强
李心成
葛伟凤
吴奇兵
吴奇霖
纪仁杰
刘增凯
李荣康
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China University of Petroleum East China
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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of petroleum engineering, and particularly relates to an underwater Christmas tree system condition maintenance method and system based on residual service life prediction. The method for maintaining the underwater Christmas tree system according to the situation based on the residual service life prediction comprises the following six steps: the method comprises the steps of establishing a degradation impact model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, establishing an incomplete maintenance model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, establishing a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, establishing a spare part model of the underwater Christmas tree system, establishing an optional maintenance model of the underwater Christmas tree system and determining a maintenance decision threshold of the underwater Christmas tree system. The underwater Christmas tree system based on residual service life prediction is an on-condition maintenance system, which comprises five parts: the system comprises an underwater Christmas tree production loop data acquisition module, an underwater Christmas tree annular loop data acquisition module, an underwater Christmas tree chemical agent injection loop data acquisition module, an underwater Christmas tree sensor data collection and storage module and an underwater Christmas tree maintenance decision subsystem.

Description

Remaining service life prediction-based method and system for maintaining underwater Christmas tree system according to situations
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of petroleum engineering, and particularly relates to an underwater Christmas tree system condition maintenance method and system based on residual service life prediction.
Background
The underwater Christmas tree is a key facility of an underwater production system and is widely applied to offshore oil exploitation. The subsea tree is mainly composed of system components such as a well head connector, a tubing hanger, a blanking plug, a tree cap, a tree body, a valve and various passages, and is mainly used for daily production management such as hanging a tubing string which is put into a well, sealing an annular space of an oil casing, controlling and adjusting oil well production, ensuring operation, testing and paraffin removal. The underwater Christmas tree is less influenced by sea level environment, and can be suitable for deep water or ultra-deep water oil and gas development, so that the underwater Christmas tree is concerned and developed vigorously.
Because the subsea tree works on the seabed for a long time, the problems of difficult installation, high maintenance cost, high maintenance difficulty and the like are caused by the complex structure and the complex operating conditions of the subsea tree. Once the subsea tree breaks down, huge economic losses can be brought, and even damage to the marine environment and casualties can be caused. The existing maintenance mode is usually timing maintenance, the maintenance cost is high, and the problems of over-maintenance and under-maintenance are easily caused. The condition maintenance is a maintenance mode for making maintenance decision based on the degradation state of the assembly, can effectively reduce the problems of over maintenance and under maintenance, and reduces the maintenance cost while ensuring the safety of the system. Therefore, an optional maintenance method and system for the subsea tree system based on remaining service life prediction is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects in the prior art, the invention provides an underwater Christmas tree system on-condition maintenance method and system based on residual service life prediction.
In order to realize the purpose, the method for maintaining the underwater Christmas tree system according to the situation based on the residual service life prediction comprises the following 6 steps:
s1: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a degradation impact model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree according to historical fault data:
s11: and establishing an internal degradation model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree. Modeling an internal degradation process of each component of the underwater Christmas tree into a gamma process;
s12: and establishing an external impact model of the marine environment of each component of the underwater Christmas tree. Modeling an external impact process of the marine environment of each component of the underwater Christmas tree into a poisson process;
s2: according to the maintenance data of the underwater Christmas tree system and the degradation data after maintenance, an incomplete maintenance model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is established, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s21: establishing a degradation state reduction model after incomplete maintenance of each component of the underwater Christmas tree;
s22: establishing a degradation acceleration model after the incomplete maintenance of each component of the underwater Christmas tree by combining the incomplete maintenance times of each component of the underwater Christmas tree;
s3: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree based on a neural network algorithm according to historical fault data of the underwater Christmas tree system, and specifically comprising the following steps:
s31: establishing a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in a normal degradation state based on a neural network algorithm;
s32: establishing a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree under incomplete maintenance based on a neural network algorithm;
s4: establishing a spare part model of an underwater Christmas tree system, wherein the specific implementation of the step is as follows:
the model of the underwater Christmas tree system spare parts adopts a spare part strategy of (S, S), wherein S is the minimum quantity of the sum of the spare parts of each component of the underwater Christmas tree owned by the underwater Christmas tree system, S is the maximum quantity of the sum of the spare parts of each component of the underwater Christmas tree owned by the underwater Christmas tree system, and each underwater Christmas tree component has only one spare part at most;
s5: establishing an optional maintenance model of the underwater Christmas tree system, determining the maintenance mode of each component of the underwater Christmas tree with the current maintenance time as an optimization target by using the minimum ratio of the maintenance cost of the current maintenance time of the underwater Christmas tree system to the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system after maintenance, and determining the ordering condition of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system after the current maintenance time according to the consumption condition of the spare parts, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s51: diagnosing and analyzing data such as pressure, flow, temperature, leakage and the like acquired by sensors of all components of the underwater Christmas tree every unit period time T to obtain degradation states of all components of the underwater Christmas tree;
s52: inputting the degradation state of each component of the underwater Christmas tree into a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in a normal degradation state to obtain a residual service life prediction value of each component of the underwater Christmas tree and a residual service life prediction value of an underwater Christmas tree system;
s53: according to the degradation state of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, the predicted value of the residual service life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree and the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system, and meanwhile, maintenance decision is carried out by combining spare part data of the underwater Christmas tree system, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s531: when the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system is higher than the safe residual service life threshold ST of the underwater Christmas tree system, turning to S51, otherwise, starting maintenance preparation work;
s532: after the maintenance preparation work is finished, determining the maintenance mode of each component of the underwater Christmas tree by using an underwater Christmas tree system according to a situation maintenance genetic algorithm;
s533: after the components of the underwater Christmas tree are maintained according to the maintenance mode determined in the S532, determining the ordering quantity and the ordering type of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system according to the service condition of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system;
s6: and determining an optimal maintenance decision threshold value of the underwater Christmas tree system, namely a safe remaining service life threshold value ST of the underwater Christmas tree system and a strategy threshold value (S, S) of spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system, by taking the minimum maintenance cost of the underwater Christmas tree system in unit time as a target.
The underwater Christmas tree system based on residual service life prediction is an on-condition maintenance system, which comprises 5 parts: the system comprises an underwater Christmas tree production loop data acquisition module, an underwater Christmas tree annular loop data acquisition module, an underwater Christmas tree chemical agent injection loop data acquisition module, an underwater Christmas tree sensor data collection and storage module and an underwater Christmas tree maintenance decision subsystem.
The data acquisition module of the production loop of the underwater Christmas tree comprises a production main valve sensor group, a production wing valve sensor group, a production isolation valve sensor group, a well surface control underground safety valve sensor group and a production throttle valve sensor group.
The underwater Christmas tree annulus loop data acquisition module comprises an annulus main valve sensor group, an annulus wing valve sensor group, a change-over valve sensor group and an annulus access valve sensor group.
The underwater Christmas tree chemical agent injection loop data acquisition module comprises a methanol injection valve sensor group, a first chemical agent injection valve sensor group and a second chemical agent injection valve sensor group.
The maintenance decision subsystem of the underwater Christmas tree comprises a degradation state diagnosis module of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, a residual service life prediction module of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, an on-demand maintenance module of the underwater Christmas tree system, a standby component library module of the underwater Christmas tree system and a maintenance decision result display module of the underwater Christmas tree system.
Compared with the prior art, the effective gain effect of the invention is as follows: the method and the system for maintaining the underwater Christmas tree system according to the situation based on the residual service life prediction take the real-time state of the underwater Christmas tree system into consideration during maintenance, combine the maintenance cost of the underwater Christmas tree system with the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system, and adopt a more reasonable maintenance mode for each component of the underwater Christmas tree.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a block diagram of an optional maintenance method for an underwater Christmas tree system based on remaining useful life prediction;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of a model of degradation impact of components of the subsea tree;
FIG. 3 is a model diagram of the prediction of the remaining useful life of each component of the subsea tree based on a neural network algorithm;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of an optional maintenance of the subsea tree system;
FIG. 5 is a flow chart of an optimized genetic algorithm for situational maintenance of an underwater Christmas tree system;
FIG. 6 is an encoding diagram of a genetic algorithm for the on-demand maintenance of an underwater Christmas tree system;
FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram of an optional maintenance genetic algorithm crossover operation and mutation operation of the subsea tree system;
FIG. 8 is a schematic view of a subsea tree system;
FIG. 9 is a schematic diagram of an in-situ maintenance system for a subsea tree system based on remaining life prediction.
101, subsea tree production circuit, 102, subsea tree production master valve, 103, subsea tree well face control downhole safety valve, 104, subsea tree production wing valve, 105, subsea tree production throttle valve, 106, subsea tree production isolation valve, 107, subsea tree annulus circuit, 108, subsea tree annulus master valve, 109, subsea tree annulus wing valve, 110, subsea tree diverter valve, 111, subsea tree annulus access valve, 112, subsea tree chemical injection circuit, 113, subsea tree methanol injection valve, 114, subsea tree chemical injection valve one, 115, subsea tree chemical injection valve two, 201, subsea tree production circuit data acquisition module, 202, production master valve sensor set, 203, production master valve pressure sensor, 204, production master valve temperature sensor, 205, Production main valve flow sensor, 206, production main valve acoustic emission sensor, 207, production wing valve sensor group, 208, production wing valve pressure sensor, 209, production wing valve temperature sensor, 210, production wing valve flow sensor, 211, production wing valve acoustic emission sensor, 212, production isolation valve sensor group, 213, production isolation valve pressure sensor, 214, production isolation valve temperature sensor, 215, production isolation valve flow sensor, 216, production isolation valve acoustic emission sensor, 217, well face control downhole safety valve sensor group, 218, well face control downhole safety valve pressure sensor, 219, well face control downhole safety valve temperature sensor, 220, well face control downhole safety valve flow sensor, 221, well face control downhole safety valve acoustic emission sensor, 222, production throttle valve sensor group, 223, production throttle valve pressure sensor, 224. production throttle temperature sensor, 225, production throttle flow sensor, 226, production throttle acoustic emission sensor, 227, subsea tree annulus loop data acquisition module, 228, annulus main valve sensor set, 229, annulus main valve pressure sensor, 230, annulus main valve temperature sensor, 231, annulus main valve flow sensor, 232, annulus main valve acoustic emission sensor, 233, annulus wing valve sensor set, 234, annulus wing valve pressure sensor, 235, annulus wing valve temperature sensor, 236, annulus wing valve flow sensor, 237, annulus wing valve acoustic emission sensor, 238, diverter valve sensor set, 239, diverter valve pressure sensor, 240, diverter valve temperature sensor, 241, diverter valve flow sensor, 242, diverter valve acoustic emission sensor, 243, annulus admission valve sensor set, 244, annulus admission valve pressure sensor, 245. an annulus intake valve temperature sensor, 246, an annulus intake valve flow sensor, 247, an annulus intake valve acoustic emission sensor, 248, a subsea tree chemical injection loop data acquisition module, 249, a methanol injection valve sensor group, 250, a methanol injection valve pressure sensor, 251, a methanol injection valve temperature sensor, 252, a methanol injection valve flow sensor, 253, a methanol injection valve acoustic emission sensor, 254, a chemical injection valve sensor group, 255, a chemical injection valve pressure sensor, 256, a chemical injection valve temperature sensor, 257, a chemical injection valve flow sensor, 258, a chemical injection valve acoustic emission sensor, 259, a chemical injection valve sensor group, 260, a chemical injection valve pressure sensor, 261, a chemical injection valve temperature sensor, 262, a chemical injection valve flow sensor, 263. the system comprises two acoustic emission sensors of a chemical agent injection valve, a 264 underwater Christmas tree sensor data collection and storage module, 301 an underwater Christmas tree maintenance decision subsystem, 302 an underwater Christmas tree component degradation state diagnosis module, 303 an underwater Christmas tree component residual service life prediction module, 304 an underwater Christmas tree system condition maintenance module, 305 an underwater Christmas tree system spare part library module, 306 and an underwater Christmas tree system maintenance decision result display module.
Detailed Description
The present invention will now be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for maintaining an underwater Christmas tree system based on residual service life prediction according to the situation comprises the following 6 steps:
s1: as shown in fig. 2, establishing a degradation impact model of each component of the subsea tree according to historical fault data specifically includes the following steps:
s11: and establishing an internal degradation model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree. Modeling the internal degradation process of each component of the underwater Christmas tree as a gamma process, and determining the degradation x of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in unit period time TTIndependent of each other and subject to a gamma distribution, as follows:
Figure BDA0003145576650000071
Figure BDA0003145576650000072
wherein, f (x)Tα, β) is a gamma distribution density function, α is a shape parameter of the gamma distribution, β is an inverse scale parameter of the gamma distribution, and Γ (x)T) For the gamma function, the shape parameters and inverse scale parameters of the gamma distribution are determined from historical data.
Total amount of internal degradation X of each component of subsea tree in unit cycle time ttComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003145576650000073
wherein x isT kThe degradation amount of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in the kth unit cycle time is shown, wherein k is a unit cycle time number;
s12: and establishing an external impact model of the marine environment of each component of the underwater Christmas tree. And modeling the external impact process of the marine environment of each component of the underwater Christmas tree into a Poisson process. For any timeSegment t1,t2Is greater than or equal to 0, has
Figure BDA0003145576650000074
Wherein N is the number of times that each component of the underwater Christmas tree is impacted by the external of the marine environment, and N isc(t1+t2) Is t1+t2Number of external impacts on the marine environment, N, on a time periodc(t1) Is t1Number of times of external impacts on the marine environment, P { N), on a time periodc(t1+t2)-Nc(t1) N is at any value of t2And the probability of the occurrence of n times of external impact of the marine environment in the time period, wherein lambda is a parameter of Poisson distribution and is determined by historical data.
Intensity x of external impact on marine environment on components of subsea treesThat is, the amount of degeneration caused by external impact in marine environment follows normal distribution as follows:
Figure BDA0003145576650000081
wherein, f (x)s) And the density function is a normally distributed density function, mu is the mean value of the external impact strength of the marine environment, and sigma is the variance of the external impact strength of the marine environment, and is determined by historical data.
Total amount of external impact X in marine environmentSComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003145576650000082
wherein x isS hThe number of the external impact quantity of the marine environment at the h time is the number of the external impact times of the marine environment at the Ns and the number of the external impact times of the marine environment at the h time.
The degradation state X of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is the total internal degradation amount XtAnd total amount of external impact X of marine environmentSAnd (c) the sum, i.e.:
X＝Xt+XS
under the condition of not adopting maintenance and replacement, the degradation state of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is only increased but not reduced along with the increase of time.
S2: according to the maintenance data of the underwater Christmas tree system and the degradation data after maintenance, an incomplete maintenance model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is established, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s21: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a degradation state reduction model after incomplete maintenance of all components of the underwater Christmas tree, and specifically comprising the following steps:
obtaining the degradation state X of each component of the underwater Christmas tree after incomplete maintenance according to the maintenance data of the underwater Christmas tree and the degradation data after maintenancejLower than the degraded state X before service, but higher than the degraded state X after the last incomplete servicej-1。
Modeling degradation state distribution of each component of the subsea tree after incomplete maintenance as Xj-1To (X-X)j-1)·0.6+Xj-1As follows:
Figure BDA0003145576650000091
wherein f isXjIs a uniformly distributed density function, and j is the number of times of incomplete maintenance of the component;
s22: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a degradation acceleration model after incomplete maintenance of each component of the underwater Christmas tree by combining the incomplete maintenance times of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, and specifically comprises the following contents:
after the components of the underwater Christmas tree are not completely maintained, the degradation acceleration is shown on the parameters of an internal degradation model and an external impact model of a marine environment as follows:
αj＝α+κ·j
μj＝τj·μ
wherein alpha isjFor the shape parameter, μ, of the internally degenerated gamma distribution after the jth incomplete repairjAfter the jth incomplete maintenance, all components of the subsea tree bearThe average value of the external impact strength of the marine environment. Tau and kappa are degradation acceleration coefficients, tau is more than 1 and is determined by historical data;
s3: as shown in fig. 3, the method for establishing a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree based on a neural network algorithm according to historical fault data of the underwater Christmas tree system specifically comprises the following steps:
s31: and establishing a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in a normal degradation state based on a neural network algorithm. Degradation state X of each component of underwater Christmas tree at adjacent monitoring time by using residual service life prediction model under normal degradation state of each component of underwater Christmas tree based on neural network algorithmt-1And XtThe unit cycle time t and t-1 of work in the corresponding degradation state and the incomplete maintenance times j in the current degradation state are used as input quantity of the neural network, the input quantity is input into an input layer of the neural network, and residual service life data Rul of all components of the underwater Christmas tree in the normal degradation state are output at an output layer through two hidden layers of 3 nodes R;
s32: and establishing a residual service life prediction model of the underwater Christmas tree based on a neural network algorithm under the condition of incomplete maintenance of each component. Neural network algorithm-based residual service life prediction model for incomplete maintenance of components of subsea tree, and degradation state X of components of subsea tree before maintenance at maintenance timetThe unit cycle time t of work at the maintenance time, and the degradation state X of each component of the underwater Christmas tree after incomplete maintenancejAnd the incomplete maintenance times j are used as the input quantity of the neural network, input into an input layer of the neural network, pass through two hidden layers of 3 nodes R, and output the remaining service life data Rul of the incomplete maintenance of each component of the underwater Christmas tree on an output layer;
obtaining a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree with prediction precision meeting the use requirement through multiple times of training;
s4: establishing a spare part model of an underwater Christmas tree system, wherein the specific implementation of the step is as follows:
the model of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system adopts a spare part strategy of (S, S), wherein S is the minimum quantity of the sum of the spare parts of each component of the underwater Christmas tree owned by the underwater Christmas tree system, S is the maximum quantity of the sum of the spare parts of each component of the underwater Christmas tree owned by the underwater Christmas tree system, and each underwater Christmas tree component has only one spare part at most. The initial quantity of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system is S, when the underwater Christmas tree system is maintained, the components of the underwater Christmas tree are replaced, namely the spare parts are used, if the quantity of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system is lower than S, the spare parts of the components of the underwater Christmas tree are ordered according to the sequence of ordering the spare parts from low to high of predicted values of the residual service life of the components of the underwater Christmas tree, and the quantity of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system is supplemented to S. Ordering spare parts, generating ordering cost, the spare parts can be used for replacement after the ordering period is over, and generating spare part storage cost until the spare parts are not used;
s5: as shown in fig. 4, an optional maintenance model of the underwater christmas tree system is established, a maintenance mode of each component of the underwater christmas tree with the optimal current maintenance time is determined by taking the minimum ratio of the maintenance cost of the current maintenance time of the underwater christmas tree system to the predicted value of the remaining service life of the underwater christmas tree system after maintenance as an optimization target, and the ordering condition of the spare parts of the underwater christmas tree system after the current maintenance time is determined according to the consumption condition of the spare parts, which specifically comprises the following steps:
s51: diagnosing and analyzing data such as pressure, flow, temperature, leakage and the like acquired by sensors of all components of the underwater Christmas tree every unit period time T to obtain degradation states of all components of the underwater Christmas tree;
s52: inputting the degradation state of each component of the underwater Christmas tree into a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in a normal degradation state to obtain a residual service life prediction value of each component of the underwater Christmas tree and a residual service life prediction value of an underwater Christmas tree system, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
inputting the degradation state and the working life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree at the current moment, the degradation state and the working life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree at the previous moment and the incomplete maintenance frequency at the current moment into a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in the normal degradation state based on a neural network algorithm, and obtaining the residual service life of each component of the underwater Christmas treeUsing life prediction value to simultaneously predict Rul remaining service life of subsea tree systemsysThe predicted value of the residual service life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is defined as the following value:
Rulsys＝min(Rul1,Rul2,...,RulN)
wherein N is the number of subsea tree components, Rul1Prediction of remaining useful life for the 1 st component of subsea tree, Rul2Prediction of remaining useful life for subsea tree 2 nd component, RuliPrediction of remaining useful life for the ith sub-assembly of a subsea tree, RulNPredicting a residual service life prediction value of the Nth component of the underwater Christmas tree;
s53: according to the degradation state of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, the predicted value of the residual service life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree and the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system, and meanwhile, maintenance decision is carried out by combining spare part data of the underwater Christmas tree system, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s531: when the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system is higher than the safe residual service life threshold ST of the underwater Christmas tree system, turning to S51, otherwise, starting maintenance preparation work;
service preparation includes renting a service vessel, preparing a service tool, and hiring a service person. Repair preparation costs include rental repair vessel costs, repair tools costs, and repair personnel costs. During the maintenance preparation work, the subsea tree system remains in a working state and continues to degrade, which can cause shutdown losses if the subsea tree system fails. The time consumed for the maintenance preparation work is the maintenance preparation time LT;
s532: after the maintenance preparation work is finished, determining the maintenance mode of each component of the underwater Christmas tree by using the underwater Christmas tree system according to the situation maintenance genetic algorithm, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
according to the spare part condition of the underwater Christmas tree system, all components of the underwater Christmas tree are divided into components with spare parts and components without spare parts. The underwater Christmas tree component with the spare parts has three options of maintenance-free, incomplete maintenance and replacement, and the underwater Christmas tree component without the spare parts only has two options of maintenance-free and incomplete maintenance.
Maintenance cost C of subsea tree system at current maintenance timemIncluding subsea tree system maintenance preparation cost cSAnd cost of maintenance of various components of subsea tree cg. Maintenance costs of various components of subsea tree cgCost C for preventive incomplete maintenance including the normal functioning of the components of the subsea treeipmAnd preventive replacement cost CprAnd cost C of incomplete repair after failure of each component of subsea treeicmAnd cost of replacement after the fact Ccr. Because the degradation degree of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is more serious when the component of the underwater Christmas tree breaks down and the maintenance is more difficult, the cost of the afterwards incomplete maintenance and the cost of the afterwards replacement of each component of the underwater Christmas tree are higher than the cost of the preventability incomplete maintenance and the cost of the preventability replacement, and the maintenance cost C of the underwater Christmas tree system at the current maintenance time is higher than the cost of the preventability incomplete maintenance and the cost of the preventability replacementmAs follows:
Figure BDA0003145576650000121
Figure BDA0003145576650000122
wherein i is the number of the subsea tree components, N is the number of the subsea tree components, cg iCost of maintenance for ith subsea tree component, ci ipmFor preventive incomplete maintenance costs of component i, ci icmFor the cost of ex-situ incomplete repair of component i, ci prFor preventive replacement costs of component i, ci crFor the cost of the subsequent replacement of component i, qiFor a preventive incomplete repair factor, y, of component iiIs the after incomplete repair factor, r, of component iiIs a preventive replacement factor, p, of component iiFor the later replacement coefficient of the component i, when the coefficient is 1, the component i adopts the maintenance mode, and each component can only selectOne way of maintenance, when all 0, indicates that no maintenance operation is taken.
Adopting an underwater Christmas tree component without maintenance operation, wherein the predicted values of the degradation state and the residual service life are unchanged; the degradation state of the underwater Christmas tree component adopting the replacement operation is 0, and the predicted value of the residual service life is changed into an initial value; adopting the incomplete maintenance operation to the underwater Christmas tree component, and according to the incomplete maintenance model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, estimating the degradation state X of the underwater Christmas tree component after incomplete maintenancej-mThe average of the degradation states after defined as incomplete repair is as follows:
Xj-m＝0.5·[(X-Xj-1)·0.6+2·Xj-1]
degraded State X before maintenance of subsea Tree Assembly that would take incomplete maintenancetTime t per unit cycle of work before repair, estimated value X of degradation state after incomplete repairj-mAnd inputting the incomplete maintenance times j into a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree based on the neural network algorithm under the incomplete maintenance to obtain a predicted value of the residual service life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree after maintenance. Taking the minimum value in the predicted values of the residual service lives of all the components of the subsea tree as the predicted value Rul of the residual service life of the subsea tree system after maintenancesys-m。
The minimum ratio of the maintenance cost of the underwater Christmas tree system at the current maintenance time to the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system after maintenance is taken as an optimization target, and the following steps are shown:
Figure BDA0003145576650000131
and determining the maintenance mode of each component of the underwater Christmas tree by using the condition maintenance genetic algorithm of the underwater Christmas tree system. The encoding scheme is shown in fig. 5, where 0 indicates no maintenance, 1 indicates incomplete maintenance, and 2 indicates replacement. One chromosome includes 12 codes, each representing a maintenance mode for 12 corresponding components. The maintenance mode of the underwater Christmas tree component is influenced by the state of the spare part of the underwater Christmas tree component, when the component has the spare part, the state of the spare part is 1, and when the component does not have the spare part, the state of the spare part is 0. The components with spare parts have three options of 0, 1 and 2, and the components without spare parts have two options of 0 and 1.
The optimization process of the genetic algorithm for the situation-based maintenance of the underwater Christmas tree system is shown in FIG. 6, and the specific optimization process is as follows:
first, a population is initialized, and a plurality of groups of chromosomes are randomly generated.
In order to avoid the possible maintenance combinations that are significantly different from the optimal solution due to the randomness of the genetic algorithm, it is necessary to define the maintenance modes of the components that meet certain requirements and filter the undesirable chromosomes as follows:
1. when the underwater Christmas tree component has no spare parts, if the predicted value of the residual service life of the component is lower than the safety threshold value, incomplete maintenance is required;
2. when the underwater Christmas tree component has spare parts, if the predicted value of the residual service life of the component is lower than the safety threshold value, incomplete maintenance or replacement is required;
3. when the subsea tree component has spare parts, if the component fails and the number of incomplete maintenance times is more than 3, the component must be replaced;
4. when the underwater Christmas tree component has spare parts, the degradation state of the component is lower than 0.7, the component is not subjected to incomplete maintenance, and the component is not replaced;
5. when the degradation state of the underwater Christmas tree component is lower than 0.4, the component is not maintained and replaced incompletely;
and then calculating the maintenance cost of the current maintenance time of the underwater Christmas tree system and the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system after maintenance according to the maintenance mode of each component represented by each chromosome. The ratio of the maintenance cost of the current maintenance time of the underwater Christmas tree system to the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system after maintenance is taken as the adaptive value W of each chromosome, and the adaptive value is as follows:
Figure BDA0003145576650000141
and secondly, performing cross operation, mutation operation and selection operation for selecting a better chromosome and performing next iteration operation. Crossover operation and mutation operation as shown in fig. 7, crossover operation is to randomly generate crossover points and to swap the chromosome fragments after the crossover points in adjacent chromosomes. Mutation operations are random changes of the encoded value of a certain position of a chromosome. The new maintenance mode obtained by the mutation operation meets the requirement of the spare part state of the subsea tree component, namely, the component without the spare part cannot be changed into a replacement maintenance mode. The selection operation adopts a roulette method.
Finally, judging whether a termination condition, namely the maximum iteration number, is met, if the termination condition is met, outputting an optimal maintenance mode of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, and if not, continuing to execute the iteration process until the termination condition is met;
s533: after the components of the underwater Christmas tree are maintained according to the maintenance mode determined in S532, the ordering quantity and the ordering type of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system are determined according to the service condition of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
number of spare parts N of subsea tree system after maintenancezhComprises the following steps:
Nzh＝S-Nr
wherein N isrThe number is changed for the components.
When the number of spare parts is NzhWhen the number is not less than s, spare parts do not need to be ordered; when the number is less than s, the spare parts need to be ordered, and the number N of the spare parts needs to be orderedorComprises the following steps:
Nor＝S-Nzh
the ordering type of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system is determined according to the sequence of predicted values of the residual service lives of all components of the underwater Christmas tree after maintenance from low to high;
s6: the method comprises the following steps of determining an optimal maintenance decision threshold value of the underwater Christmas tree system, namely a safe remaining service life threshold value ST of the underwater Christmas tree system and a strategy threshold value (S, S) of spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system, by taking the minimum unit time maintenance cost of the underwater Christmas tree system as a target, and specifically comprising the following contents:
determining total cost of maintenance C for subsea tree systemz. The total maintenance cost of the subsea tree system includes the total working time t of the subsea tree systemzMaintenance cost C of period subsea tree system at each maintenance timemAnd the cost of ordering spare parts of subsea tree system cbjAnd storage cost cccAnd shutdown loss due to subsea tree system failure cDThe method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003145576650000151
wherein N isfFor the period of generating shutdown loss, M is the total maintenance times of the underwater Christmas tree system, l is the serial number of the maintenance times of the underwater Christmas tree system, Cl mThe maintenance cost of the subsea tree system at the first maintenance time is the maintenance cost;
minimum cost C for unit time maintenance of subsea tree systemtz(ST, S, S) is used as a target, a traversing method is used for determining a safe residual service life threshold ST of the underwater Christmas tree system and a strategy threshold (S, S) of spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system, and the optimization target is as follows:
Figure BDA0003145576650000161
wherein, STminAnd STmaxUpper and lower limits, s, of a safe remaining service life threshold ST for an subsea tree systemminAs a lower limit of the number of spare parts, SmaxThe upper limit of the number of spare parts.
As shown in fig. 8, a subsea tree system comprising a subsea tree production loop 101, a subsea tree annulus loop 107, and a subsea tree chemical injection loop 112; wherein the subsea tree production circuit 101 comprises a subsea tree production main valve 102, a subsea tree well surface control downhole safety valve 103, a subsea tree production wing valve 104, a subsea tree production throttle valve 105, and a subsea tree production isolation valve 106, when the oil is normally produced, the valves of the subsea tree production circuit 101 are all kept in an open state, the oil of the subsea oil well is flushed into the tree pipe, sequentially passes through the subsea tree well surface control downhole safety valve 103, the subsea tree production main valve 102, and the subsea tree production wing valve 104, then the yield of the oil is regulated by the subsea tree production throttle valve 105, finally passes through the subsea tree production isolation valve 106 to enter the production manifold, when the temperature or pressure of the subsea tree production circuit exceeds the maximum value of the set value, the subsea tree production main valve 102, the subsea tree production wing valve 104, and the subsea tree production isolation valve 106 are sequentially closed according to circumstances, isolating a passage between the underwater Christmas tree and the production manifold to prevent dangerous accidents; the subsea tree annulus circuit 107 comprises a subsea tree annulus main valve 108, a subsea tree annulus wing valve 109, a subsea tree annulus changeover valve 110 and a subsea tree annulus access valve 111, when leakage occurs between the oil pipe and the casing, if the temperature or pressure of the subsea tree annulus circuit 107 exceeds the maximum value of the set value, the subsea tree annulus main valve 108 and the subsea tree annulus wing valve 109 are opened, the leaked oil gas is discharged through the annulus channel, and if the pressure value continues to increase, the subsea tree changeover valve 110 and the subsea tree production wing valve 104 are opened, and the leaked oil gas is returned to the subsea tree production circuit 101 through the changeover channel; the underwater Christmas tree chemical injection loop 112 comprises an underwater Christmas tree methanol injection valve 113, an underwater Christmas tree chemical injection valve I114 and an underwater Christmas tree chemical injection valve II 115, and the injection flow of various chemical agents is controlled by controlling the opening degrees of the underwater Christmas tree methanol injection valve 113, the chemical injection valve I114 and the chemical injection valve II 115.
As shown in fig. 9, the subsea tree system maintenance system based on remaining service life prediction includes 5 parts: an underwater Christmas tree production loop data acquisition module 201, an underwater Christmas tree annulus loop data acquisition module 227, an underwater Christmas tree chemical injection loop data acquisition module 248, an underwater Christmas tree sensor data collection and storage module 264 and an underwater Christmas tree maintenance decision-making subsystem 301.
The subsea tree production loop data collection module 201 includes a production main valve sensor group 202, a production wing valve sensor group 207, a production isolation valve sensor group 212, a surface control downhole safety valve sensor group 217, and a production choke valve sensor group 222. The production master valve sensor group 202 includes a production master valve pressure sensor 203, a production master valve temperature sensor 204, a production master valve flow sensor 205, and a production master valve acoustic emission sensor 206, is attached to the subsea tree production master valve 102, and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, temperature, and flow data of the oil received by the subsea tree production master valve 102, and the leakage condition of the valve body. The production wing valve sensor group 207 comprises a production wing valve pressure sensor 208, a production wing valve temperature sensor 209, a production wing valve flow sensor 210 and a production wing valve acoustic emission sensor 211, is attached to the underwater christmas tree production wing valve 104, and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, temperature and flow data of oil borne by the underwater christmas tree production wing valve 104 and the leakage condition of a valve body. The production isolation valve sensor group 212 includes a production isolation valve pressure sensor 213, a production isolation valve temperature sensor 214, a production isolation valve flow sensor 215, and a production isolation valve acoustic emission sensor 216, and is attached to the subsea tree production isolation valve 106, and is respectively used for monitoring pressure, temperature, and flow data of oil borne by the subsea tree production isolation valve 106, and a leakage condition of a valve body. The surface control downhole safety valve sensor group 217 comprises a surface control downhole safety valve pressure sensor 218, a surface control downhole safety valve temperature sensor 219, a surface control downhole safety valve flow sensor 220 and a surface control downhole safety valve acoustic emission sensor 221, is attached to the underwater Christmas tree surface control downhole safety valve 103, and is respectively used for monitoring pressure, temperature and flow data of oil borne by the underwater Christmas tree surface control downhole safety valve 103 and leakage conditions of a valve body. The production throttle sensor group 222 includes a production throttle pressure sensor 223, a production throttle temperature sensor 224, a production throttle flow sensor 225 and a production throttle acoustic emission sensor 226, which are attached to the subsea tree production throttle 105 and are respectively used for monitoring the pressure, temperature and flow data of the oil borne by the subsea tree production throttle 105 and the leakage condition of the valve body.
The subsea tree annulus loop data collection module 227 includes an annulus master valve sensor set 228, an annulus wing valve sensor set 233, a crossover valve sensor set 238, and an annulus access valve sensor set 243. The annulus master sensor group 228 includes an annulus master pressure sensor 229, an annulus master temperature sensor 230, an annulus master flow sensor 231, and an annulus master acoustic emission sensor 232, is attached to the subsea tree annulus master 108, and is configured to monitor pressure, temperature, and flow data of the oil received by the subsea tree annulus master 108, and a leakage condition of the valve body, respectively. The annular wing valve sensor group 233 comprises an annular wing valve pressure sensor 234, an annular wing valve temperature sensor 235, an annular wing valve flow sensor 236 and an annular wing valve acoustic emission sensor 237, is attached to the underwater Christmas tree annular wing valve 109, and is used for monitoring the pressure, temperature and flow data of oil borne by the underwater Christmas tree annular wing valve 109 and the leakage condition of the valve body. The switch valve sensor group 238 comprises a switch valve pressure sensor 239, a switch valve temperature sensor 240, a switch valve flow sensor 241 and a switch valve acoustic emission sensor 242, which are attached to the subsea tree switch valve 110 and are respectively used for monitoring the pressure, temperature and flow data of the oil liquid borne by the subsea tree switch valve 110 and the leakage condition of the valve body. The annulus access valve sensor group 243 comprises an annulus access valve pressure sensor 244, an annulus access valve temperature sensor 245, an annulus access valve flow sensor 246 and an annulus access valve acoustic emission sensor 247, is attached to the subsea tree annulus access valve 111, and is used for monitoring the pressure, temperature and flow data of oil borne by the subsea tree annulus access valve 111 and the leakage condition of the valve body.
Subsea tree chemical injection circuit data acquisition module 248 includes methanol injection valve sensor group 249, first chemical injection valve sensor group 254, and second chemical injection valve sensor group 259. The methanol injection valve sensor group 249 comprises a methanol injection valve pressure sensor 250, a methanol injection valve temperature sensor 251, a methanol injection valve flow sensor 252 and a methanol injection valve acoustic emission sensor 253, is attached to the underwater xmas tree methanol injection valve 113, and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, temperature and flow data of methanol liquid borne by the underwater xmas tree methanol injection valve 113 and the leakage condition of a valve body. The first chemical injection valve sensor group 254 includes a first chemical injection valve pressure sensor 255, a first chemical injection valve temperature sensor 256, a first chemical injection valve flow sensor 257, and a first chemical injection valve acoustic emission sensor 258, and is attached to the first subsea tree chemical injection valve 114, and is configured to monitor pressure, temperature, and flow data of the chemical liquid received by the first subsea tree chemical injection valve 114, and a leakage condition of the valve body, respectively. The second chemical injection valve sensor set 259 includes a second chemical injection valve pressure sensor 260, a second chemical injection valve temperature sensor 261, a second chemical injection valve flow sensor 262 and a second chemical injection valve acoustic emission sensor 263, is attached to the second underwater christmas tree chemical injection valve 115, and is respectively used for monitoring pressure, temperature and flow data of chemical liquid borne by the second underwater christmas tree chemical injection valve 115 and leakage conditions of a valve body.
The subsea tree sensor data collection and storage module 264 is connected with the production main valve sensor group 202, the production wing valve sensor group 207, the production isolation valve sensor group 212, the surface control downhole safety valve sensor group 217, the production throttle valve sensor group 222, the annulus main valve sensor group 228, the annulus wing valve sensor group 233, the switching valve sensor group 238, the annulus inlet valve sensor group 243, the methanol injection valve sensor group 249, the chemical injection valve sensor group 254 and the chemical injection valve sensor group 259 through signal cables, and is used for collecting and storing signals collected by the sensors.
The underwater Christmas tree maintenance decision subsystem 301 comprises an underwater Christmas tree component degradation state diagnosis module 302, an underwater Christmas tree component residual service life prediction module 303, an underwater Christmas tree system optional maintenance module 304, an underwater Christmas tree system spare part library module 305 and an underwater Christmas tree system maintenance decision result display module 306. The degradation state diagnosis module 302 receives the sensor data of the sensor data collection and storage module 264 of the subsea tree through a signal cable, and is used for diagnosing the degradation state of each component of the subsea tree; the residual service life prediction module 303 of each component of the underwater Christmas tree receives the degradation state of each component of the underwater Christmas tree obtained by the degradation state diagnosis module 302 of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, and a residual service life prediction value of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is obtained through a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree; the underwater Christmas tree system maintenance module 304 receives the predicted value of the residual service life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree and the data of the underwater Christmas tree system spare part library module 305, which are obtained by predicting the residual service life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree by the underwater Christmas tree system residual service life prediction module 303, obtains the optimal maintenance mode of each component of the underwater Christmas tree and the ordering quantity and the ordering type of the underwater Christmas tree system spare parts through the underwater Christmas tree system maintenance model according to the situation, and finally displays the optimal maintenance mode, the ordering quantity and the ordering type of each component of the underwater Christmas tree system spare part to maintenance operators through the underwater Christmas tree system maintenance decision result display module 306.

Claims (6)

1. The method for maintaining the underwater Christmas tree system according to the situation based on the residual service life prediction is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method comprises the following 6 steps:
s1: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a degradation impact model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree according to historical fault data:
s11: establishing an internal degradation model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, modeling the internal degradation process of each component of the underwater Christmas tree into a gamma process, and determining the degradation x of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in unit cycle time TTIndependent of each other and subject to a gamma distribution, as follows:
Figure FDA0003145576640000011
Figure FDA0003145576640000012
wherein, f (x)Tα, β) is a gamma distribution density function, α is a shape parameter of the gamma distribution, β is an inverse scale parameter of the gamma distribution, and Γ (x)T) Is gammaA function, wherein the shape parameter and the inverse scale parameter of the gamma distribution are determined by historical data;
total amount of internal degradation X of each component of subsea tree in unit cycle time ttComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003145576640000013
wherein x isT kThe degradation amount of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in the kth unit cycle time is shown, wherein k is a unit cycle time number;
s12: establishing an external impact model of the marine environment of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, modeling the external impact process of the marine environment of each component of the underwater Christmas tree into a poisson process, and carrying out any time period t1,t2Is greater than or equal to 0, has
Figure FDA0003145576640000014
Wherein N is the number of times that each component of the underwater Christmas tree is impacted by the external of the marine environment, and N isc(t1+t2) Is t1+t2Number of external impacts on the marine environment, N, on a time periodc(t1) Is t1Number of times of external impacts on the marine environment, P { N), on a time periodc(t1+t2)-Nc(t1) N is at any value of t2The probability of the occurrence of n times of external impacts of the marine environment in a time period, wherein lambda is a parameter of Poisson distribution and is determined by historical data;
intensity x of external impact on marine environment on components of subsea treesThat is, the amount of degeneration caused by external impact in marine environment follows normal distribution as follows:
Figure FDA0003145576640000021
wherein, f (x)s) Density of normal distributionDetermining a function, wherein mu is the mean value of the external impact strength of the marine environment, and sigma is the variance of the external impact strength of the marine environment according to historical data;
total amount of external impact X in marine environmentSComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003145576640000022
wherein x isS hThe number is the external impact quantity of the marine environment at the h time, Ns is the external impact times of the marine environment, and h is the external impact times number of the marine environment;
the degradation state X of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is the total internal degradation amount XtAnd total amount of external impact X of marine environmentSAnd (c) the sum, i.e.:
X＝Xt+XS
under the condition of not adopting maintenance and replacement, along with the increase of time, the degradation state of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is only increased but not reduced;
s2: according to the maintenance data of the underwater Christmas tree system and the degradation data after maintenance, an incomplete maintenance model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is established, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s21: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a degradation state reduction model after incomplete maintenance of all components of the underwater Christmas tree, and specifically comprising the following steps:
obtaining the degradation state X of each component of the underwater Christmas tree after incomplete maintenance according to the maintenance data of the underwater Christmas tree and the degradation data after maintenancejLower than the degraded state X before service, but higher than the degraded state X after the last incomplete servicej-1；
Modeling degradation state distribution of each component of the subsea tree after incomplete maintenance as Xj-1To (X-X)j-1)·0.6+Xj-1As follows:
Figure FDA0003145576640000031
wherein f isXjIs a uniformly distributed density function, and j is the number of times of incomplete maintenance of the component;
s22: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a degradation acceleration model after incomplete maintenance of each component of the underwater Christmas tree by combining the incomplete maintenance times of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, and specifically comprises the following contents:
after the components of the underwater Christmas tree are not completely maintained, the degradation acceleration is shown on the parameters of an internal degradation model and an external impact model of a marine environment as follows:
αj＝α+κ·j
μj＝τj·μ
wherein alpha isjFor the shape parameter, μ, of the internally degenerated gamma distribution after the jth incomplete repairjAfter the jth incomplete maintenance, the average value of the external impact strength of the marine environment borne by each component of the underwater Christmas tree; tau and kappa are degradation acceleration coefficients, tau is more than 1 and is determined by historical data;
s3: the method comprises the following steps of establishing a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree based on a neural network algorithm according to historical fault data of the underwater Christmas tree system, and specifically comprising the following steps:
s31: establishing a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in a normal degradation state based on a neural network algorithm, and predicting the degradation state X of each component of the underwater Christmas tree at the adjacent monitoring time by using the residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in the normal degradation state based on the neural network algorithmt-1And XtThe unit cycle time t and t-1 of work in the corresponding degradation state and the incomplete maintenance times j in the current degradation state are used as input quantity of the neural network, the input quantity is input into an input layer of the neural network, and residual service life data Rul of all components of the underwater Christmas tree in the normal degradation state are output at an output layer through two hidden layers of 3 nodes R;
s32: establishing a residual service life prediction model under the condition of incomplete maintenance of each component of the underwater Christmas tree based on a neural network algorithm, and maintaining each component of the underwater Christmas tree in a dimensional mode by using the residual service life prediction model under the condition of incomplete maintenance of each component of the underwater Christmas tree based on the neural network algorithmDegraded state X before repair time maintenancetThe unit cycle time t of work at the maintenance time, and the degradation state X of each component of the underwater Christmas tree after incomplete maintenancejAnd the incomplete maintenance times j are used as the input quantity of the neural network, input into an input layer of the neural network, pass through two hidden layers of 3 nodes R, and output the remaining service life data Rul of the incomplete maintenance of each component of the underwater Christmas tree on an output layer;
obtaining a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree with prediction precision meeting the use requirement through multiple times of training;
s4: establishing a spare part model of an underwater Christmas tree system, wherein the specific implementation of the step is as follows:
the model of the subsea tree system spare parts adopts a spare part strategy of (S, S), wherein S is the minimum quantity of the sum of the components and spare parts of the subsea tree owned by the subsea tree system, S is the maximum quantity of the sum of the components and spare parts of the subsea tree owned by the subsea tree system, each subsea tree component has only one spare part at most, the initial quantity of the subsea tree system spare parts is S, when the subsea tree system is maintained and the subsea tree components are replaced, namely the spare parts are used, if the quantity of the subsea tree system spare parts is lower than S, the spare parts of the subsea tree components are ordered according to the sequence of ordering the spare parts from low to high of the predicted value of the remaining service life of the subsea tree components, so that the quantity of the subsea tree system spare parts is supplemented to S, the spare parts are ordered, the ordering cost is generated, and the spare parts can be replaced and used after the ordering period is finished, and spare part storage costs are incurred until unused;
s5: establishing an optional maintenance model of the underwater Christmas tree system, determining the maintenance mode of each component of the underwater Christmas tree with the current maintenance time as an optimization target by using the minimum ratio of the maintenance cost of the current maintenance time of the underwater Christmas tree system to the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system after maintenance, and determining the ordering condition of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system after the current maintenance time according to the consumption condition of the spare parts, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s51: diagnosing and analyzing data such as pressure, flow, temperature, leakage and the like acquired by sensors of all components of the underwater Christmas tree every unit period time T to obtain degradation states of all components of the underwater Christmas tree;
s52: inputting the degradation state of each component of the underwater Christmas tree into a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in a normal degradation state to obtain a residual service life prediction value of each component of the underwater Christmas tree and a residual service life prediction value of an underwater Christmas tree system, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
inputting the degradation state and the working life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree at the current moment, the degradation state and the working life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree at the previous moment and the incomplete maintenance frequency at the current moment into a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree in the normal degradation state based on a neural network algorithm to obtain a residual service life prediction value of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, and simultaneously, inputting the residual service life prediction value Rul of each component of the underwater Christmas tree systemsysThe predicted value of the residual service life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is defined as the following value:
Rulsys＝min(Rul1,Rul2,...,RulN)
wherein N is the number of subsea tree components, Rul1Prediction of remaining useful life for the 1 st component of subsea tree, Rul2Prediction of remaining useful life for subsea tree 2 nd component, RuliPrediction of remaining useful life for the ith sub-assembly of a subsea tree, RulNPredicting a residual service life prediction value of the Nth component of the underwater Christmas tree;
s53: according to the degradation state of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, the predicted value of the residual service life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree and the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system, and meanwhile, maintenance decision is carried out by combining spare part data of the underwater Christmas tree system, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s531: when the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system is higher than the safe residual service life threshold ST of the underwater Christmas tree system, turning to S51, otherwise, starting maintenance preparation work;
service preparation includes renting a service vessel, preparing a service tool, hiring a service person; repair preparation costs include rental repair vessel costs, repair tools costs, and repair personnel costs; during the maintenance preparation work period, the underwater Christmas tree system keeps a working state and continues to degrade, and if the underwater Christmas tree system breaks down, the shutdown loss is caused; the time consumed for the maintenance preparation work is the maintenance preparation time LT;
s532: after the maintenance preparation work is finished, determining the maintenance mode of each component of the underwater Christmas tree by using the underwater Christmas tree system according to the situation maintenance genetic algorithm, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
according to the spare part condition of the underwater Christmas tree system, dividing each component of the underwater Christmas tree into a component with a spare part and a component without the spare part; the underwater Christmas tree component with the spare part has three options of maintenance-free, incomplete maintenance and replacement, and the underwater Christmas tree component without the spare part only has two options of maintenance-free and incomplete maintenance;
maintenance cost C of subsea tree system at current maintenance timemIncluding subsea tree system maintenance preparation cost cSAnd cost of maintenance of various components of subsea tree cg(ii) a Maintenance costs of various components of subsea tree cgCost C for preventive incomplete maintenance including the normal functioning of the components of the subsea treeipmAnd preventive replacement cost CprAnd cost C of incomplete repair after failure of each component of subsea treeicmAnd cost of replacement after the fact Ccr(ii) a Because the degradation degree of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is more serious when the component of the underwater Christmas tree breaks down and the maintenance is more difficult, the cost of the afterwards incomplete maintenance and the cost of the afterwards replacement of each component of the underwater Christmas tree are higher than the cost of the preventability incomplete maintenance and the cost of the preventability replacement, and the maintenance cost C of the underwater Christmas tree system at the current maintenance time is higher than the cost of the preventability incomplete maintenance and the cost of the preventability replacementmAs follows:
Figure FDA0003145576640000061
Figure FDA0003145576640000062
wherein i is the number of the subsea tree components, N is the number of the subsea tree components, cg iCost of maintenance for ith subsea tree component, ci ipmFor preventive incomplete maintenance costs of component i, ci icmFor the cost of ex-situ incomplete repair of component i, ci prFor preventive replacement costs of component i, ci crFor the cost of the subsequent replacement of component i, qiFor a preventive incomplete repair factor, y, of component iiIs the after incomplete repair factor, r, of component iiIs a preventive replacement factor, p, of component iiWhen the coefficient is 1, the component i adopts the maintenance mode, each component only can select one maintenance mode, and when the coefficients are 0, the component i adopts no maintenance operation;
adopting an underwater Christmas tree component without maintenance operation, wherein the predicted values of the degradation state and the residual service life are unchanged; the degradation state of the underwater Christmas tree component adopting the replacement operation is 0, and the predicted value of the residual service life is changed into an initial value; adopting the incomplete maintenance operation to the underwater Christmas tree component, and according to the incomplete maintenance model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, estimating the degradation state X of the underwater Christmas tree component after incomplete maintenancej-mThe average of the degradation states after defined as incomplete repair is as follows:
Xj-m＝0.5·[(X-Xj-1)·0.6+2·Xj-1]
degraded State X before maintenance of subsea Tree Assembly that would take incomplete maintenancetTime t per unit cycle of work before repair, estimated value X of degradation state after incomplete repairj-mInputting the incomplete maintenance times j into a residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree based on a neural network algorithm under the incomplete maintenance to obtain a residual service life prediction value of each component of the underwater Christmas tree after maintenance; taking the minimum value in the predicted values of the residual service lives of all the components of the subsea tree as the predicted value Rul of the residual service life of the subsea tree system after maintenancesys-m；
The minimum ratio of the maintenance cost of the underwater Christmas tree system at the current maintenance time to the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system after maintenance is taken as an optimization target, and the following steps are shown:
Figure FDA0003145576640000071
determining the maintenance mode of each component of the underwater Christmas tree by using an underwater Christmas tree system according to a situation maintenance genetic algorithm; the coding mode is that 0 represents maintenance, 1 represents incomplete maintenance and 2 represents replacement; one chromosome includes 12 codes, which respectively represent the maintenance modes of 12 corresponding components; the maintenance mode of the underwater Christmas tree component is influenced by the state of spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree component, when the component has the spare parts, the state of the spare parts is 1, and when the component has no spare parts, the state of the spare parts is 0; the components with spare parts have three options of 0, 1 and 2, and the components without spare parts have two options of 0 and 1;
the optimization process of the genetic algorithm for the situation-based maintenance of the underwater Christmas tree system is shown as follows:
firstly, initializing a population and randomly generating a plurality of groups of chromosomes;
in order to avoid the possible maintenance combinations that are significantly different from the optimal solution due to the randomness of the genetic algorithm, it is necessary to define the maintenance modes of the components that meet certain requirements and filter the undesirable chromosomes as follows:
1. when the underwater Christmas tree component has no spare parts, if the predicted value of the residual service life of the component is lower than the safety threshold value, incomplete maintenance is required;
2. when the underwater Christmas tree component has spare parts, if the predicted value of the residual service life of the component is lower than the safety threshold value, incomplete maintenance or replacement is required;
3. when the subsea tree component has spare parts, if the component fails and the number of incomplete maintenance times is more than 3, the component must be replaced;
4. when the underwater Christmas tree component has spare parts, the degradation state of the component is lower than 0.7, the component is not subjected to incomplete maintenance, and the component is not replaced;
5. when the degradation state of the underwater Christmas tree component is lower than 0.4, the component is not maintained and replaced incompletely;
then, calculating the maintenance cost of the current maintenance time of the underwater Christmas tree system and the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system after maintenance, which are generated by maintaining each component according to the maintenance mode represented by each chromosome; the ratio of the maintenance cost of the current maintenance time of the underwater Christmas tree system to the predicted value of the residual service life of the underwater Christmas tree system after maintenance is taken as the adaptive value W of each chromosome, and the adaptive value is as follows:
Figure FDA0003145576640000081
secondly, performing cross operation, mutation operation and selection operation for selecting a better chromosome and performing next iteration operation; the crossing operation is to randomly generate a crossing point and to exchange the positions of chromosome segments after the crossing point in the adjacent chromosomes; the mutation operation is to randomly change the coding value of a certain position of the chromosome; the new maintenance mode obtained by the variation operation is required to meet the requirement of the spare part state of the underwater Christmas tree assembly, namely, the maintenance mode of replacement cannot be changed for the assembly without the spare part; the selection operation adopts a roulette method;
finally, judging whether a termination condition, namely the maximum iteration number, is met, if the termination condition is met, outputting an optimal maintenance mode of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, and if not, continuing to execute the iteration process until the termination condition is met;
s533: after the components of the underwater Christmas tree are maintained according to the maintenance mode determined in S532, the ordering quantity and the ordering type of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system are determined according to the service condition of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
number of spare parts N of subsea tree system after maintenancezhComprises the following steps:
Nzh＝S-Nr
wherein N isrThe number of components is changed;
when the number of spare parts is NzhWhen the number is not less than s, spare parts do not need to be ordered; when the number is less than s, the spare parts need to be ordered, and the number N of the spare parts needs to be orderedorComprises the following steps:
Nor＝S-Nzh
the ordering type of the spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system is determined according to the sequence of predicted values of the residual service lives of all components of the underwater Christmas tree after maintenance from low to high;
s6: the method comprises the following steps of determining an optimal maintenance decision threshold value of the underwater Christmas tree system, namely a safe remaining service life threshold value ST of the underwater Christmas tree system and a strategy threshold value (S, S) of spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system, by taking the minimum unit time maintenance cost of the underwater Christmas tree system as a target, and specifically comprising the following contents:
determining total cost of maintenance C for subsea tree systemzThe total maintenance cost of the subsea tree system includes the total working time t of the subsea tree systemzMaintenance cost C of period subsea tree system at each maintenance timemAnd the cost of ordering spare parts of subsea tree system cbjAnd storage cost cccAnd shutdown loss due to subsea tree system failure cDThe method comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003145576640000091
wherein N isfFor the period of generating shutdown loss, M is the total maintenance times of the underwater Christmas tree system, l is the serial number of the maintenance times of the underwater Christmas tree system, Cl mThe maintenance cost of the subsea tree system at the first maintenance time is the maintenance cost;
minimum cost C for unit time maintenance of subsea tree systemtz(ST, S, S) is used as a target, a traversing method is used for determining a safe residual service life threshold ST of the underwater Christmas tree system and a strategy threshold (S, S) of spare parts of the underwater Christmas tree system, and the optimization target is as follows:
Figure FDA0003145576640000101
wherein, STminAnd STmaxUpper and lower limits, s, of a safe remaining service life threshold ST for an subsea tree systemminAs a lower limit of the number of spare parts, SmaxIs the upper limit of the number of spare parts;
the method for maintaining the underwater Christmas tree system according to the situation based on the residual service life prediction is applied to the underwater Christmas tree system maintaining system based on the residual service life prediction, and the system comprises 5 parts: the system comprises an underwater Christmas tree production loop data acquisition module, an underwater Christmas tree annular loop data acquisition module, an underwater Christmas tree chemical agent injection loop data acquisition module, an underwater Christmas tree sensor data acquisition and storage module and an underwater Christmas tree maintenance decision subsystem;
the underwater production tree production loop data acquisition module comprises a production main valve sensor group, a production wing valve sensor group, a production isolation valve sensor group, a well surface control underground safety valve sensor group and a production throttle valve sensor group;
the underwater Christmas tree annulus loop data acquisition module comprises an annulus main valve sensor group, an annulus wing valve sensor group, a change-over valve sensor group and an annulus inlet valve sensor group;
the underwater Christmas tree chemical agent injection loop data acquisition module comprises a methanol injection valve sensor group, a first chemical agent injection valve sensor group and a second chemical agent injection valve sensor group;
the maintenance decision subsystem of the underwater Christmas tree comprises a degradation state diagnosis module of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, a residual service life prediction module of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, an on-demand maintenance module of the underwater Christmas tree system, a standby component library module of the underwater Christmas tree system and a maintenance decision result display module of the underwater Christmas tree system.
2. The method for the on-the-fly maintenance of an underwater Christmas tree system based on residual service life prediction of claim 1, wherein: the production main valve sensor group of the data acquisition module of the production loop of the underwater Christmas tree comprises a production main valve pressure sensor, a production main valve temperature sensor, a production main valve flow sensor and a production main valve acoustic emission sensor, is attached to the production main valve of the underwater Christmas tree and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, the temperature and the flow data of oil borne by the production main valve of the underwater Christmas tree and the leakage condition of a valve body; the production wing valve sensor group comprises a production wing valve pressure sensor, a production wing valve temperature sensor, a production wing valve flow sensor and a production wing valve acoustic emission sensor, is pasted on the production wing valve of the underwater Christmas tree, and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, the temperature and the flow data of oil borne by the production wing valve of the underwater Christmas tree and the leakage condition of the valve body; the production isolation valve sensor group comprises a production isolation valve pressure sensor, a production isolation valve temperature sensor, a production isolation valve flow sensor and a production isolation valve acoustic emission sensor, is attached to the production isolation valve of the underwater Christmas tree, and is respectively used for monitoring pressure, temperature and flow data of oil borne by the production isolation valve of the underwater Christmas tree and the leakage condition of the valve body; the surface control underground safety valve sensor group comprises a surface control underground safety valve pressure sensor, a surface control underground safety valve temperature sensor, a surface control underground safety valve flow sensor and a surface control underground safety valve acoustic emission sensor, is pasted on the surface control underground safety valve of the underwater Christmas tree, and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, the temperature and the flow data of oil borne by the surface control underground safety valve of the underwater Christmas tree and the leakage condition of a valve body; the production throttle valve sensor group comprises a production throttle valve pressure sensor, a production throttle valve temperature sensor, a production throttle valve flow sensor and a production throttle valve acoustic emission sensor, is attached to the production throttle valve of the underwater Christmas tree, and is respectively used for monitoring pressure, temperature and flow data of oil borne by the production throttle valve of the underwater Christmas tree and the leakage condition of the valve body.
3. The method for the on-the-fly maintenance of an underwater Christmas tree system based on residual service life prediction of claim 1, wherein: the annular main valve sensor group of the underwater Christmas tree annular loop data acquisition module comprises an annular main valve pressure sensor, an annular main valve temperature sensor, an annular main valve flow sensor and an annular main valve acoustic emission sensor, is attached to the underwater Christmas tree annular main valve and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, the temperature and the flow data of oil borne by the underwater Christmas tree annular main valve and the leakage condition of a valve body; the annular wing valve sensor group comprises an annular wing valve pressure sensor, an annular wing valve temperature sensor, an annular wing valve flow sensor and an annular wing valve acoustic emission sensor, is pasted on the annular wing valve of the underwater Christmas tree, and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, the temperature and the flow data of oil borne by the annular wing valve of the underwater Christmas tree and the leakage condition of the valve body; the conversion valve sensor group comprises a conversion valve pressure sensor, a conversion valve temperature sensor, a conversion valve flow sensor and a conversion valve acoustic emission sensor, is attached to the conversion valve of the underwater Christmas tree, and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, the temperature and the flow data of oil borne by the conversion valve of the underwater Christmas tree and the leakage condition of the valve body; the annular space entering valve sensor group comprises an annular space entering valve pressure sensor, an annular space entering valve temperature sensor, an annular space entering valve flow sensor and an annular space entering valve acoustic emission sensor, and is pasted on the underwater Christmas tree annular space entering valve and used for monitoring the leakage conditions of pressure, temperature, flow data and a valve body of oil born by the underwater Christmas tree annular space entering valve respectively.
4. The method for the on-the-fly maintenance of an underwater Christmas tree system based on residual service life prediction of claim 1, wherein: the methanol injection valve sensor group of the chemical agent injection loop data acquisition module of the underwater Christmas tree comprises a methanol injection valve pressure sensor, a methanol injection valve temperature sensor, a methanol injection valve flow sensor and a methanol injection valve acoustic emission sensor, is attached to the methanol injection valve of the underwater Christmas tree, and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, temperature and flow data of methanol liquid borne by the methanol injection valve of the underwater Christmas tree and the leakage condition of a valve body; the first sensor group of the chemical agent injection valve comprises a first pressure sensor of the chemical agent injection valve, a first temperature sensor of the chemical agent injection valve, a first flow sensor of the chemical agent injection valve and a first acoustic emission sensor of the chemical agent injection valve, is attached to the first chemical agent injection valve of the underwater Christmas tree and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, the temperature and the flow data of the chemical agent liquid borne by the first chemical agent injection valve of the underwater Christmas tree and the leakage condition of the valve body; the second sensor group of the chemical agent injection valve comprises a second pressure sensor of the chemical agent injection valve, a second temperature sensor of the chemical agent injection valve, a second flow sensor of the chemical agent injection valve and a second acoustic emission sensor of the chemical agent injection valve, is pasted on the second chemical agent injection valve of the underwater Christmas tree and is respectively used for monitoring the pressure, the temperature and the flow data of the chemical agent liquid born by the second chemical agent injection valve of the underwater Christmas tree and the leakage condition of the valve body.
5. The method for the on-the-fly maintenance of an underwater Christmas tree system based on residual service life prediction of claim 1, wherein: the sensor data collecting and storing module of the underwater Christmas tree is connected with a production main valve sensor group through a signal cable, a production wing valve sensor group, a production isolation valve sensor group, a well surface control underground safety valve sensor group, a production throttle valve sensor group, an annulus main valve sensor group, an annulus wing valve sensor group, a change-over valve sensor group, an annulus inlet valve sensor group, a methanol injection valve sensor group, a chemical agent injection valve sensor group and a chemical agent injection valve sensor group, and is used for collecting and storing signals collected by the sensors.
6. The method for the on-the-fly maintenance of an underwater Christmas tree system based on residual service life prediction of claim 1, wherein: the degradation state diagnosis module of each component of the underwater Christmas tree maintenance decision subsystem receives the sensor data of the sensor data collection and storage module of the underwater Christmas tree through a signal cable and is used for diagnosing the degradation state of each component of the underwater Christmas tree; the residual service life prediction module of each component of the underwater Christmas tree receives the degradation state of each component of the underwater Christmas tree obtained by the degradation state diagnosis module of each component of the underwater Christmas tree, and a residual service life prediction value of each component of the underwater Christmas tree is obtained through the residual service life prediction model of each component of the underwater Christmas tree; the underwater Christmas tree system condition maintenance module receives the residual service life prediction value of each component of the underwater Christmas tree and the module data of the underwater Christmas tree system spare part database, which are obtained by predicting the residual service life of each component of the underwater Christmas tree by the underwater Christmas tree system condition prediction module, obtains the optimal maintenance mode of each component of the underwater Christmas tree and the ordering quantity and the ordering type of the underwater Christmas tree system spare parts through the underwater Christmas tree system condition maintenance module, and finally displays the optimal maintenance mode, the ordering quantity and the ordering type of each component of the underwater Christmas tree system spare part to maintenance operators through the underwater Christmas tree system maintenance decision result display module.
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