CN113325488A - Method and system for predicting gust occurrence range in strong convection weather - Google Patents
Method and system for predicting gust occurrence range in strong convection weather Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a system for predicting the gust occurrence range in strong convection weather, wherein the prediction method comprises the following steps: acquiring weather forecast field data of a numerical weather mode in an area range; calculating a precipitation influence area below the strong convection weather system according to the acquired weather forecast field data; calculating the moving direction and the moving speed of the strong convection weather system according to the acquired weather forecast field data; and judging the occurrence range of the gust by combining the moving direction and the moving speed of the precipitation influence area and the strong convection weather system. According to the method, the occurrence range of the gust in the strong convection weather can be objectively and accurately judged by acquiring the weather forecast field data of the numerical weather mode and through a series of processing, and the method provides disaster prevention technical support for the industries such as aviation, traffic, electric power, communication and the like, and has important scientific significance and application value.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method for forecasting extreme strong wind weather, in particular to a method and a system for forecasting the gust occurrence range in strong convection weather.
Background
The gust is the maximum wind speed when the instantaneous wind speed is more than 5m/s of the average wind speed within two minutes or ten minutes, the gust caused by strong convection weather has great harm to aviation, traffic, electric power, communication, buildings and the like, and the extreme gust weather can also cause the faults of tower collapse, wire breakage, insulator flashover, unsmooth communication and the like of the power transmission line, thereby bringing great inconvenience to the production and life of people and causing serious loss to social economy.
To reduce losses due to strong convective gusts, it is necessary to accurately predict the regions where high winds occur. The large wind area is usually located in the influence range of the gust wind front in strong convection weather, home and abroad scholars develop some subjective judgment models for the gust wind front, and the influence range of the gust wind front is roughly judged by combining with a weather forecast field through the subjective judgment of weather forecasters. However, the area affected by strong wind cannot be objectively determined, the accuracy of predicting strong wind by the traditional numerical weather mode is low, and the TS score is only 0.07.
Therefore, it is a difficult problem how to objectively output the influence range of gust by using the data of the weather forecast field and accurately forecast the area affected by the strong wind.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the defects in the prior art, the invention aims to provide a method and a system for predicting the gust occurrence range in strong convection weather, which can objectively and accurately predict the gust occurrence range in the strong convection weather according to the weather forecast field data of a numerical weather mode.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme.
A method for predicting the occurrence range of gusts in strong convection weather comprises the following steps:
step 101, acquiring weather forecast field data of a numerical weather mode in an area range;
102, calculating a precipitation influence area below the strong convection weather system according to the acquired weather forecast field data;
103, calculating the moving direction and the moving speed of the strong convection weather system according to the acquired weather forecast field data;
and step 104, judging the occurrence range of the gust by combining the precipitation influence area and the moving direction and the moving speed of the strong convection weather system.
Further, in the step 101, the step of,
the weather forecast field data includes a wind speed, a wind direction, and a rainwater mixing ratio in a vertical direction of each grid point.
Further, the step 102 specifically includes:
firstly, judging whether each grid point is positioned in a precipitation influence area; and traversing all the grid points to judge the precipitation influence area.
Further, when the following formula is satisfied, it can be determined that the grid point is located in the precipitation influence area:
in the formula, qrK is the vertical layer number, and N is an empirical constant.
Further, the step 103 specifically includes:
the moving speed of the strong convection weather system is as follows:
the moving direction of the strong convection weather system is:
wherein,
the east-west and north-south direction average wind speed components for each grid point, respectively.
Further, the average wind speed components in the east-west and south-north directions for each grid point are:
wherein k is the number of mode layers, k3/4Number of layers, k, representing the distance from the ground to the top of the atmosphere 3/4 in the forecast fieldhNumber of layers u representing the distance from the ground to the top of the atmosphere 1/2 in the forecast fieldk、vkEast-west and north-south components of the k-layer wind speed, respectively.
Further, the step 104 specifically includes:
according to the calculated moving direction of the precipitation influence area and the strong convection weather system, the gust occurrence range in the strong convection weather is located in the preset threshold distance range in the front of the precipitation influence area and extends along the moving direction of the strong convection weather system.
Further, the preset threshold distance range is 0-18 km.
A system for predicting the gust occurrence range in strong convection weather comprises a weather forecast field data acquisition module, a precipitation influence area calculation module, a moving direction and moving speed calculation module and a gust occurrence range judgment module;
the weather forecast field data acquisition module is used for acquiring weather forecast field data of a numerical weather mode in an area range;
the precipitation influence area calculation module is used for calculating a precipitation influence area below the strong convection weather system according to the acquired weather forecast field data;
the moving direction and moving speed calculation module is used for calculating the moving direction and moving speed of the strong convection weather system according to the acquired weather forecast field data;
and the gust occurrence range judging module is used for judging the gust occurrence range by combining the moving direction and the moving speed of the precipitation influence area and the strong convection weather system.
The invention has the advantages that compared with the prior art,
according to the method, the occurrence range of the gust in the strong convection weather can be objectively and accurately judged by acquiring the weather forecast field data of the numerical weather mode and through a series of processing, and the method provides disaster prevention technical support for the industries such as aviation, traffic, electric power, communication and the like, and has important scientific significance and application value.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flowchart of a method for predicting the gust occurrence range in strong convection weather according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a spatial location distribution of extracted meteorological data for a research area at 21 o-22 o 1/6/2015 in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a spatial distribution diagram of precipitation in a research area and the moving direction of a strong convection weather system at 21 st-22 st 1 st 6 th month 2015 according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 shows the range of impact of the gust front in the study area between 21 and 22 days 1/6/2015 in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present application is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, and the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereby.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for predicting the gust occurrence range in strong convection weather specifically includes the following steps:
step 101, acquiring weather forecast field data of a numerical weather mode in an area range;
specifically, the weather forecast field data includes, but is not limited to, precipitation amount at each grid point and wind speed, wind direction, and rain mixing ratio in the vertical direction.
Specifically, a mesoscale meteorological model (WRF) is combined with re-analysis data of the united states environment prediction center (NCEP), and a strong convection weather system near the proctor county of the north of lake at 21-22 days 1/6/2015 is subjected to numerical forecasting to obtain a meteorological forecasting field, wherein a forecasting area is shown in fig. 2.
102, calculating a precipitation influence area below the strong convection weather system according to the acquired meteorological data;
specifically, the step 102 includes:
the precipitation impact area under a strong convection weather system is calculated using the following equation (1):
in the formula, qrThe mixing ratio of rainwater in the vertical direction is given in g/kg, k is the number of vertical layers, and N is an empirical constant, usually taken to be 8.
When the formula (1) is satisfied, it can be determined that the grid point is located in the precipitation influence area. And traversing all the grid points to judge the precipitation influence area.
103, calculating the moving direction and the moving speed of the strong convection weather system according to the acquired meteorological data;
specifically, the step 103 includes:
and (5) calculating the moving speed and the moving direction of the strong convection weather system by combining the wind speed and the wind direction in the vertical direction of each grid point. Wherein the average wind speed component for each grid point is:
wherein u and v are respectively east-west and south-north direction components of wind speed, k is the number of mode layers, and k is3/4Number of layers, k, representing the distance from the ground to the top of the atmosphere 3/4 in the forecast fieldhNumber of floors representing the distance from the ground to the top of the atmosphere 1/2 in the forecasted field.
The average wind speeds in the east-west and north-south directions, respectively.
The average moving speed of a strong convection weather system is:
the moving direction of the strong convection weather system is:
therefore, the moving speed and the moving direction of the strong convection weather system in each grid point can be accurately calculated.
And step 104, calculating the influence range of the gust front by combining the obtained precipitation influence area and the moving direction and the moving speed of the strong convection weather system, namely judging the gust occurrence range.
Specifically, the step 104 includes:
and according to the calculated moving direction of the precipitation influence area and the strong convection system, the influence range of the gust front in the strong convection weather is located in a preset threshold distance range in front of the precipitation influence area, the preset threshold distance range is 0-18km, and the distance extends along the moving direction of the strong convection system.
Therefore, the gust occurrence range in strong convection weather can be accurately calculated.
Therefore, the method can objectively and accurately judge the occurrence range of the gust in the strong convection weather by acquiring the weather forecast field data of the numerical weather mode and performing a series of processing, provides disaster prevention technical support for the industries such as aviation, traffic, electric power, communication and the like, and has important scientific significance and application value.
The invention also provides a system for predicting the gust occurrence range in strong convection weather, which specifically comprises a weather forecast field data acquisition module, a precipitation influence area calculation module, a moving direction and moving speed calculation module and a gust occurrence range judgment module.
And the weather forecast field data acquisition module is used for acquiring the weather forecast field data of the numerical weather mode in the area range, including but not limited to precipitation of each grid point and wind speed, wind direction and rainwater mixing ratio in the vertical direction.
And the precipitation influence area calculation module is used for calculating the precipitation influence area below the strong convection weather system according to the acquired meteorological data.
And the moving direction and moving speed calculation module is used for calculating the moving direction and moving speed of the strong convection weather system according to the acquired meteorological data.
And the gust occurrence range judging module is used for calculating the influence range of the gust front by combining the obtained precipitation influence area and the moving direction and the moving speed of the strong convection weather system, namely judging the gust occurrence range.
The invention is explained in further detail below with reference to an application scenario example.
The gale weather caused by the weather of strong convection (squall line) which occurs in Hubei Pieli county at 21-22 days of 1 st day of 6 th month in 2015 is selected as a case to explain the specific implementation process of the method. The method is characterized in that a mesoscale meteorological model (WRF) is combined with re-analysis data of an American environmental prediction center (NCEP) to carry out numerical forecast on meteorological fields near the Hupeh Binre county in an event section, and the spatial distribution of a gust occurrence area is calculated, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
step A, performing numerical prediction on a meteorological field near Hubei Keli county in the event section by using a mesoscale meteorological model (WRF) and combining with re-analysis data of the American environmental prediction center (NCEP), wherein a prediction area is shown in figure 2, and the color filling is the altitude. And obtaining wind speed, wind direction and rainwater mixing ratio data in the vertical direction of each grid point of the area.
Step B, calculating a precipitation influence area under the strong convection weather system by using a formula (1), wherein the result is shown in figure 3, and the proctor county is positioned in front of the precipitation influence area;
step C, calculating the moving direction and the moving speed of the strong convection weather system by using weather forecast data and combining formulas (2) to (5), wherein the result is shown by an arrow in figure 3;
and D, calculating the occurrence range of the gust in the strong convection weather by using the precipitation influence area, the moving direction and the moving speed of the strong convection weather system calculated in the steps B and C, wherein the result is shown in figure 4, the prediction gust occurrence area is shown as a filled color part in figure 4, and 30 minutes at 21 time is that the gust weather occurs in the area, so that the eastern star sinking accident is caused. As shown in fig. 2, the black cross is the "star of east" accident site of sinking ship. The predicted gust occurrence area is more accurate.
In conclusion, the method provided by the embodiment of the invention can objectively and accurately judge the occurrence range of the gust in the strong convection weather, provides disaster prevention technical support for industries such as aviation, traffic, electric power, communication and the like, and has important scientific significance and application value.
The invention has the advantages that compared with the prior art,
according to the method, the occurrence range of the gust in the strong convection weather can be objectively and accurately judged by acquiring the weather forecast field data of the numerical weather mode and through a series of processing, and the method provides disaster prevention technical support for the industries such as aviation, traffic, electric power, communication and the like, and has important scientific significance and application value.
The present applicant has described and illustrated embodiments of the present invention in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, but it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the above embodiments are merely preferred embodiments of the present invention, and the detailed description is only for the purpose of helping the reader to better understand the spirit of the present invention, and not for limiting the scope of the present invention, and on the contrary, any improvement or modification made based on the spirit of the present invention should fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. A method for predicting the occurrence range of gusts in strong convection weather is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 101, acquiring weather forecast field data of a numerical weather mode in an area range;
102, calculating a precipitation influence area below the strong convection weather system according to the acquired weather forecast field data;
103, calculating the moving direction and the moving speed of the strong convection weather system according to the acquired weather forecast field data;
and step 104, judging the occurrence range of the gust by combining the precipitation influence area and the moving direction and the moving speed of the strong convection weather system.
2. The method for predicting the occurrence range of the gust under the strong convection weather as set forth in claim 1, wherein in the step 101,
the weather forecast field data includes a wind speed, a wind direction, and a rainwater mixing ratio in a vertical direction of each grid point.
3. The method for predicting the occurrence range of the gust under the strong convection weather as claimed in claim 2, wherein the step 102 specifically comprises:
firstly, judging whether each grid point is positioned in a precipitation influence area; and traversing all the grid points to judge the precipitation influence area.
4. The method of predicting the incidence of a gust in strong convective weather according to claim 3,
when the following formula is satisfied, it can be determined that the grid point is located in the precipitation influence area:
in the formula, qrK is the vertical layer number, and N is an empirical constant.
5. The method for predicting the occurrence range of the gust under the strong convection weather according to claim 2, wherein the step 103 specifically comprises:
the moving speed of the strong convection weather system is as follows:
the moving direction of the strong convection weather system is:
wherein,
the east-west and north-south direction average wind speed components for each grid point, respectively.
6. The method for predicting the occurrence range of gusts in strong convective weather according to claim 5,
the average wind speed components in the east-west and south-north directions for each grid point are:
in the formulaK is the number of mode layers, k3/4Number of layers, k, representing the distance from the ground to the top of the atmosphere 3/4 in the forecast fieldhNumber of layers u representing the distance from the ground to the top of the atmosphere 1/2 in the forecast fieldk、vkEast-west and north-south components of the k-layer wind speed, respectively.
7. The method for predicting the occurrence range of the gust under the strong convection weather as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step 104 specifically comprises:
according to the calculated moving direction of the precipitation influence area and the strong convection weather system, the gust occurrence range in the strong convection weather is located in the preset threshold distance range in the front of the precipitation influence area and extends along the moving direction of the strong convection weather system.
8. The method for predicting the occurrence range of the gust in the strong convection weather as claimed in claim 7, wherein the preset threshold distance range is 0-18 km.
9. A system for predicting the gust occurrence range in strong convection weather is characterized by comprising a weather forecast field data acquisition module, a precipitation influence area calculation module, a moving direction and moving speed calculation module and a gust occurrence range judgment module;
the weather forecast field data acquisition module is used for acquiring weather forecast field data of a numerical weather mode in an area range;
the precipitation influence area calculation module is used for calculating a precipitation influence area below the strong convection weather system according to the acquired weather forecast field data;
the moving direction and moving speed calculation module is used for calculating the moving direction and moving speed of the strong convection weather system according to the acquired weather forecast field data;
and the gust occurrence range judging module is used for judging the gust occurrence range by combining the moving direction and the moving speed of the precipitation influence area and the strong convection weather system.
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| CN113917566A (en) * | 2021-09-28 | 2022-01-11 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Micro-terrain meteorological prediction method and system considering efficiency-resource optimal balance |
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| MILOŠ LOMPAR: "《Implementation of a gust front head collapse scheme in the WRF numerical model》", 《ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH》 * |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN113917566A (en) * | 2021-09-28 | 2022-01-11 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Micro-terrain meteorological prediction method and system considering efficiency-resource optimal balance |
| CN113917566B (en) * | 2021-09-28 | 2023-06-27 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Micro-topography meteorological prediction method and system considering efficiency-resource optimal balance |
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Application publication date: 20210831 |