CN113298425A - Analysis, evaluation and prediction method and system for aviation operation risk - Google Patents
Analysis, evaluation and prediction method and system for aviation operation risk Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an analysis, evaluation and prediction method and a system for aviation operation risk, belonging to the technical field of aviation service, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the information collection end obtains event information in aviation work and sends the event information to the analysis end; the analysis end determines the property of the event after acquiring the event information, identifies a hazard source contained in the information, records measures of workers for handling the event, generates an event report and sends the event report to an event library; the assessment forecasting end accesses the event library, determines the incentive of the event, calculates the risk value of the aviation working state by using an assessment model and outputs risk evaluation and risk trend; and displaying the risk evaluation and the risk trend in the aviation work through the display end in a visualized manner. The method comprises the steps of collecting emergency events in the aviation operation process, sending the events to an analysis end for structured processing, generating a format of an event report, and evaluating and predicting risks of the events by an evaluation prediction end to obtain a visual risk evaluation and risk trend display table.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of aviation operation service, in particular to an aviation operation risk analysis, evaluation and prediction method and system.
Background
Unsafe events are frequently generated in the daily operation process of an airline company, and ICAO, CAAC and the airline company have complete mandatory requirements and program guidance for collection, reporting, analysis and disposal of the unsafe events. The daily operation of an airline company is supported by a large number of information systems, automatic triggering and collection (including QAR, FOC, AOC, MIS and the like) of a large number of events are realized, and the airline company is ensured to master the operation events at the first time by combining with a perfect active reporting mechanism (including but not limited to employee reports, captain reports, hidden danger reports and the like).
However, the data volume is huge, and the staff is not available to supervise the collected information in real time, so that the problems of large workload, low efficiency and easy error in the supervision of the aviation operation exist, and the huge data is inconvenient for the management staff to check, so that the risk and the risk trend existing in the aviation operation cannot be intuitively judged.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide an analysis, evaluation and prediction method and a system for aviation operation risks, aiming at solving the problems that the monitoring efficiency is low, the monitoring is not intuitive enough and the risks cannot be predicted due to huge data quantity when unsafe events occur in aviation operation.
The invention realizes the aim through the following technical scheme, and an analysis, evaluation and prediction method for aviation operation risk comprises the following steps:
the information collection end obtains event information in aviation work and sends the event information to the analysis end;
the analysis end determines the property of the event after acquiring the event information, identifies a hazard source contained in the information, records measures of workers for handling the event, generates an event report and sends the event report to an event library;
the assessment forecasting end accesses the event library, determines the incentive of the event, calculates the risk value of the aviation working state by using an assessment model and outputs risk evaluation and risk trend;
and displaying the risk evaluation and the risk trend in the aviation work through the display end in a visualized manner.
Preferably, the event information collected by the information collection end is data reported after an event is triggered in aviation work, wherein the data is divided into active report data, system trigger data and event survey data.
Preferably, the event nature determined by the analysis end is an unsafe condition event and a major risk event, and the unsafe condition event and the major risk event are judged by a risk value in an aviation operation manual.
Preferably, the unsafe condition event is provoked by a fault factor, which is an event caused by the action or non-action of the operator deviating from the organization or from the operator's intent or expectation, and a threat factor, which is an event or fault outside the control of the operator, resulting in an event that increases the complexity of the operation.
Preferably, the method for determining the cause of the unsafe condition event comprises:
calculating unsafe state event occurrence conditions having a correlation with the generation of an unsafe state through a multiple linear regression algorithm;
and calculating the contribution degree of each condition causing the unsafe state event to occur to obtain the occupation ratio of the threat factor condition and the error factor condition in the overall condition, thereby determining the incentive in the unsafe state event.
Preferably, the evaluation algorithm of the risk evaluation model at the evaluation prediction end is a scenario analysis method, a monte carlo simulation method, an event tree analysis method or a bayesian analysis method.
An analysis, evaluation and prediction system for aviation operation risk, which uses the analysis, evaluation and prediction method, and comprises the following steps:
the information collection end is provided with a data receiving port and a data sending port and is used for collecting event information in aviation work and forwarding the event information;
the analysis end is used for acquiring the event information of the information collection end, performing property analysis, danger source identification, record processing measures and generating an event report on the event information;
an event repository for storing event reports;
the evaluation prediction end is used for carrying out risk evaluation and risk trend prediction on the events in the event report;
and the display end is used for displaying the data evaluated and predicted by the evaluation and prediction end.
Preferably, the analysis end comprises an analysis management model, and the analysis management model is used for carrying out structural processing on the data of the event information by a system, a major risk, an unsafe state, a threat, an error and a control measure.
Preferably, a visual display tool is arranged in the display end, and the display tool is used for displaying the risk assessment and the risk trend data to a user through visual processing.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: the method comprises the steps of collecting emergency events in the aviation operation process, sending the events to an analysis end for structured processing, generating a format of an event report, evaluating and predicting risks of the events by an evaluation prediction end, and obtaining a visual risk evaluation and risk trend display table, so that the aviation operation state can be conveniently monitored by an airline company, the aviation operation risk can be reduced, and visual evaluation and prediction results can be more conveniently watched by a user.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the operation of the analytical evaluation prediction method of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a flowchart of a method for determining a cause of an unsafe condition event according to the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of an analytic evaluation prediction system according to the present invention.
FIG. 4 is a diagram of an analysis management model framework according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, a method for analyzing, evaluating and predicting an aviation operation risk includes:
step S1, the information collection end obtains the event information in the aviation work and sends the event information to the analysis end, the event information collected by the information collection end is the data reported after the triggering event in the aviation work, wherein the data is divided into active report data, system triggering data and event investigation data, the active report data is the event data actively reported by the operation and management personnel and comprises a hidden danger report, an employee report and a captain report, and the system triggering data is the data automatically obtained by each acquisition port and comprises QAR, FDM, AOC and MIS.
Step S2, the analysis end obtains event information, determines event properties, identifies risk sources contained in the information, records measures for workers to handle events, generates event reports, and sends the event reports to an event library, the event properties determined by the analysis end are unsafe state events and major risk events, the unsafe state events and the major risk events are judged by risk values in an aviation operating manual, in the aviation operating manual, the risk values of the events are graded, a threshold value is used as a standard for measuring the unsafe state events and the major risk events, events exceeding a certain risk value are defined as the major risk events, events lower than the threshold value are defined as the unsafe state events, the unsafe state events take error factors and threat factors as inducements, the error factors are events caused by deviation from the behavior or non-behavior of operators, and intention or expectation of operators, the threat factors are events or errors beyond the control of operators, which leads to the increase of operation complexity, key factors and factor evaluation which lead to the occurrence of the events are found in a large number of events, and timely and accurately output and early warning are given out to remind an airline company of factors needing important management at present, so that the phenomenon that the factors are overlapped to generate larger operation deviation and unsafe events is avoided.
As shown in fig. 2, the method for determining the cause of the unsafe condition event includes:
step S201, calculating unsafe state event occurrence conditions of relevance between the unsafe state events and the generated unsafe state through a multiple linear regression algorithm;
step S202, calculating the contribution degree of each condition causing the unsafe state event to occur, obtaining the ratio of the threat factor condition and the error factor condition in the overall condition, and determining the incentive in the unsafe state event.
And S3, accessing the event library by the assessment prediction end, determining the incentive of the event, calculating the risk value of the aviation working state by using an assessment model, and outputting risk evaluation and risk trend, wherein the assessment algorithm of the risk assessment model of the assessment prediction end is a scenario analysis method, a Monte Carlo simulation method, an event tree analysis method or a Bayesian analysis method.
And S4, visually displaying the risk evaluation and the risk trend in the aviation work through the display end.
As shown in fig. 3, an analysis, evaluation and prediction system for aviation operation risk, using the analysis, evaluation and prediction method, includes: the information collection end is provided with a data receiving port and a data sending port and is used for collecting event information in aviation work and forwarding the event information; the analysis end is used for acquiring the event information of the information collection end, performing property analysis, danger source identification, record processing measures and generating an event report on the event information; an event repository for storing event reports; the evaluation prediction end is used for carrying out risk evaluation and risk trend prediction on the events in the event report; and the display end is used for displaying the data evaluated and predicted by the evaluation and prediction end.
As shown in fig. 4, the analysis end includes an analysis management model, and the analysis management model is composed of a system, a major risk, an unsafe state, a threat, an error and a control measure, and is used for performing structured processing on data of event information, a generated event report corresponds to each part of the analysis management model, the event information acquired by the information collection end is input into the analysis management model, a manager determines which type of system data of the event belongs to in the aviation operation, then analyzes the unsafe state of the event information, divides the threat and the error cause according to the unsafe state, and refines the control measure for processing the unsafe state, so as to predict the subsequent risk.
The display end is internally provided with a visual display tool, and the visual display tool is used for displaying the risk assessment and the risk trend data to a user through visual processing.
It will be evident to those skilled in the art that the invention is not limited to the details of the foregoing illustrative embodiments, and that the present invention may be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential attributes thereof. The present embodiments are therefore to be considered in all respects as illustrative and not restrictive, the scope of the invention being indicated by the appended claims rather than by the foregoing description, and all changes which come within the meaning and range of equivalency of the claims are therefore intended to be embraced therein. Any reference sign in a claim should not be construed as limiting the claim concerned.
Furthermore, it should be understood that although the present description refers to embodiments, not every embodiment may contain only a single embodiment, and such description is for clarity only, and those skilled in the art should integrate the description, and the embodiments may be combined as appropriate to form other embodiments understood by those skilled in the art.
Claims (9)
1. An analysis, evaluation and prediction method for aviation operation risk is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the information collection end obtains event information in aviation work and sends the event information to the analysis end;
the analysis end determines the property of the event after acquiring the event information, identifies a hazard source contained in the information, records measures of workers for handling the event, generates an event report and sends the event report to an event library;
the assessment forecasting end accesses the event library, determines the incentive of the event, calculates the risk value of the aviation working state by using an assessment model and outputs risk evaluation and risk trend;
and displaying the risk evaluation and the risk trend in the aviation work through the display end in a visualized manner.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the event information collected by the information collection terminal is data reported after an event is triggered in aviation work, and the data is divided into active report data, system trigger data and event survey data.
3. The method for analyzing, evaluating and predicting the aviation operating risk according to claim 1, wherein the event properties determined by the analysis end are an unsafe condition event and a major risk event, and the unsafe condition event and the major risk event are judged by risk values in an aviation operating manual.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the unsafe condition event is caused by error factors and threat factors, the error factors are events caused by behavior or non-behavior of the operating personnel, deviation from organization or intention or expectation of the operating personnel, and the threat factors are events or errors beyond the control of the operating personnel, thereby increasing the complexity of operation.
5. The method for analyzing, evaluating and predicting the aviation operation risk according to claim 4, wherein the method for determining the cause of the unsafe condition event comprises the following steps:
calculating unsafe state event occurrence conditions having a correlation with the generation of an unsafe state through a multiple linear regression algorithm;
and calculating the contribution degree of each condition causing the unsafe state event to occur to obtain the occupation ratio of the threat factor condition and the error factor condition in the overall condition, thereby determining the incentive in the unsafe state event.
6. The method for analyzing, evaluating and predicting the aviation operating risk according to claim 1, wherein an evaluation algorithm of the risk evaluation model at the evaluation and prediction end is a scenario analysis method, a monte carlo simulation method, an event tree analysis method or a bayesian analysis method.
7. An analytical assessment and prediction system for an aviation operation risk using the analytical assessment and prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 6, comprising:
the information collection end is provided with a data receiving port and a data sending port and is used for collecting event information in aviation work and forwarding the event information;
the analysis end is used for acquiring the event information of the information collection end, performing property analysis, danger source identification, record processing measures and generating an event report on the event information;
an event repository for storing event reports;
the evaluation prediction end is used for carrying out risk evaluation and risk trend prediction on the events in the event report;
and the display end is used for displaying the data evaluated and predicted by the evaluation and prediction end.
8. The system of claim 7, wherein the analysis end comprises an analysis management model for performing structured processing on the data of the event information according to the system, the major risks, the unsafe state, the threats, the errors and the control measures.
9. The system for analyzing, evaluating and predicting the aviation operating risk according to claim 7, wherein a visual display tool is built in the display end and is used for displaying the risk evaluation and risk trend data to a user through visual processing.
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| CN110443521A (en) * | 2019-08-15 | 2019-11-12 | 中国国际航空股份有限公司 | Flight operation risk acquisition methods, system and computer equipment |
| CN112368660A (en) * | 2019-05-24 | 2021-02-12 | 空中客车A^3有限责任公司 | Unmanned aerial vehicle risk assessment |
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- 2021-06-17 CN CN202110671627.XA patent/CN113298425A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20170346846A1 (en) * | 2016-05-31 | 2017-11-30 | Valarie Ann Findlay | Security threat information gathering and incident reporting systems and methods |
| CN106503910A (en) * | 2016-10-27 | 2017-03-15 | 扬州大学 | A kind of dynamic man-machine interaction security risk assessment System and method for |
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