CN113283678A - Fan site selection risk assessment method, system, equipment and storage medium - Google Patents
Fan site selection risk assessment method, system, equipment and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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- 238000003860 storage Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 11
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 title claims description 19
- 238000012546 transfer Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 9
- 238000004590 computer program Methods 0.000 claims description 12
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 claims description 11
- 230000034994 death Effects 0.000 claims description 8
- 231100000517 death Toxicity 0.000 claims description 8
- 230000006870 function Effects 0.000 claims description 8
- VNWKTOKETHGBQD-UHFFFAOYSA-N methane Chemical compound C VNWKTOKETHGBQD-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000009826 distribution Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 239000003345 natural gas Substances 0.000 claims description 2
- 239000003208 petroleum Substances 0.000 claims description 2
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- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 abstract description 3
- 238000010187 selection method Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
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- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 description 3
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- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 description 1
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- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 244000144972 livestock Species 0.000 description 1
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 description 1
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
- Y02A90/10—Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02B—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
- Y02B10/00—Integration of renewable energy sources in buildings
- Y02B10/30—Wind power
Abstract
The invention discloses a method, a system, equipment and a storage medium for evaluating fan site selection risks, and belongs to the field of site selection of wind power plants. Direct risk information and indirect risk information near the fan are obtained through fan information and point coordinates, the direct risk information is subdivided into point risks and community risks, and the indirect risk information comprises a dangerous transfer function of high-risk article types near the fan. Compared with the existing fan site selection method, the method disclosed by the invention can be used for accurately evaluating the risk near the fan, has extremely high operability, is suitable for the fans installed in different topographic characteristics, can be used for systematically evaluating the influence of fan site selection points on the life safety of the attached human, is beneficial to helping wind power plant developers to select safe wind power plant sites, reduces the possibility of safety accidents of the wind power plant, and provides a basis for reducing the fan site selection risk.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of site selection of wind power plants, and relates to a method, a system, equipment and a storage medium for evaluating site selection risk of a fan.
Background
In recent years, the wind power generation industry is rapidly developed, and the reasonable and effective fan layout can improve the output efficiency of the fans, so that the annual energy production of the wind power plant is maximized. The site selection of the wind power plant mainly comprises macro site selection and micro site selection, wherein the macro site selection is to establish the position of the wind power plant according to wind energy resources, and after the geographical position of the wind power plant is established, the specific position of each fan needs to be established through the micro site selection. The advantages and disadvantages of the wind power plant are mainly considered by factors such as the utilization rate of each fan to wind energy, the influence of fan noise, the fan building cost and maintenance cost, the annual generated energy of the wind power plant is maximized, the building cost and noise pollution are minimized, and the optimal result is achieved. At present, the arrangement and the micro site selection of wind turbine units in complex terrains are mainly carried out by using professional software such as WindSim and MetadynWT according to wind measurement data of a wind measurement tower in the whole year, data of a local meteorological station in multiple years and the like, and due to the representativeness of the wind measurement tower and the calculation error of the software, the actual generated energy of the wind turbine units after production operation cannot be expected, and even accidents influencing the normal and safe operation of the wind turbine units occur. The existing micro-site selection of the wind turbine of the wind power plant is usually carried out around resource maximization or benefit maximization, and systematic evaluation on site selection risks of the wind turbine is neglected, so that the accident rate of the wind turbine is obviously increased.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defect of inaccurate risk assessment of fan site selection in the prior art, and provides a fan site selection risk assessment method and system.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme to realize the purpose:
a fan site selection risk assessment method comprises the following steps:
acquiring fan information of a wind power plant to be evaluated and point location coordinates of fans;
acquiring risk information of the fan based on the point location coordinates, wherein the risk information comprises direct risk information and indirect risk information; direct risk information includes terrain, population density, and building density; the indirect risk information comprises high-risk article information;
when the resident population in the fan risk influence range is less than 10 people, the direct risk information is the point location risk;
when the resident population in the fan risk influence range is larger than 10 people, the direct risk information comprises point location risk and community risk;
the indirect risk is a risk transfer function obtained based on the high-risk article types in the fan risk influence range;
and evaluating the total risk coefficient in the fan risk influence range based on the direct risk information and the indirect risk information.
Preferably, the fan information includes hub height, blade length, and mass, volume, and density of the components of the fan.
Preferably, the risk information of the wind turbine is acquired based on the point location coordinates, and the specific operation is as follows:
dividing risk areas and acquiring risk information of the risk areas;
the risk area is a circular area with the point position of the fan as the center of a circle, and the radius of the circle is larger than or equal to 1 km.
Preferably, the point location risk obtaining process is as follows:
determining a fan failure mode based on fan information;
searching corresponding failure frequency and the corresponding death number according to the failure mode;
acquiring a risk parameter of a failure mode based on failure frequency and death number;
and summing the risk parameters of the failure modes to obtain the point location risk.
Preferably, the community risk obtaining process comprises:
determining a fan failure mode based on fan information;
acquiring the building position and the safety level of the building within the influence range near the fan based on the point position coordinates;
acquiring population density distribution within an influence range near the fan based on the point location coordinates;
calculating indoor risks and outdoor risks corresponding to the failure modes based on different fan failure modes;
and obtaining the community risk based on the summation of the indoor risk and the outdoor risk.
Preferably, the high-risk article types include petroleum pipelines, overground natural gas pipelines, transformer substations and chemical containers.
A fan site selection risk assessment system comprises:
the wind turbine information acquisition module is used for acquiring wind turbine information of the wind power plant, and the wind turbine information comprises the height of a hub, the length of a blade and the mass, volume and density of each component of a wind turbine;
the point location coordinate acquisition module is used for acquiring point location coordinates of fans of the wind power plant;
the risk information acquisition module is respectively interacted with the fan information acquisition module and the point location coordinate acquisition module and comprises a direct risk information acquisition unit and an indirect risk information acquisition unit;
the direct risk information acquisition unit acquires point location risks and community risks in a fan risk influence range based on fan information and point location coordinates;
the indirect risk information acquisition unit acquires a risk transfer function of high-risk article types in the fan risk influence range based on the point position coordinates;
and the data processing and evaluating module is interacted with the risk information acquiring module and is used for carrying out data processing on the risk information and evaluating the total risk coefficient in the fan risk influence range according to the data processing result.
A terminal device comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program which is stored in the memory and can run on the processor, and the processor executes the computer program to realize the steps of the fan site selection risk assessment method.
A computer-readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method for assessing a risk of site selection for a wind turbine.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention discloses a fan site selection risk assessment method, which includes the steps of obtaining direct risk information and indirect risk information near a fan through fan information and point position coordinates, subdividing the direct risk information into point position risks and community risks, and enabling the indirect risk information to include a risk transfer function of high-risk article types near the fan. The method almost comprises all the danger information near the fan, and compared with the existing fan site selection method, the method provided by the invention considers all the danger coefficients, so that the risk near the fan can be accurately evaluated. The method has high operability, is suitable for the fans installed in different topographic characteristics, can systematically evaluate the influence of the fan site selection point on the life safety of the attachment human, is beneficial to helping wind power plant developers to select safe wind power plant sites, reduces the possibility of safety accidents of the wind power plants, and provides a basis for reducing the fan site selection risk.
Further, the fan information includes the height of the hub, the length of the blades and the mass, the volume and the density of each component of the fan, wherein the height of the hub and the length of the blades directly influence the range of the risk area, and the mass, the volume, the density and other parameters of the wind parts directly influence the potential risk.
Further, dividing risk areas and acquiring risk information of the risk areas; the risk area is a circular area with the point location of the fan as the center of a circle, the radius of the circle is required to fully consider the factors of terrain and wind resources, and the radius is more than or equal to 1 km.
Further, a fan failure mode, such as blade breakage, tower collapse, nacelle drop, etc., is determined.
The invention also discloses an evaluation system for the fan site selection risk, which comprises a fan information acquisition module, a point position coordinate acquisition module, a risk information acquisition module and a data processing evaluation module, wherein the risk information acquisition module also comprises a direct risk information acquisition unit and an indirect risk information acquisition unit.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating a risk of site selection of a wind turbine according to the present invention;
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical solutions of the present invention better understood, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that the terms "comprises," "comprising," and "having," and any variations thereof, are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions, such that a process, method, system, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of steps or elements is not necessarily limited to those steps or elements expressly listed, but may include other steps or elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus.
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings:
example 1
As shown in fig. 1, a method for evaluating a risk of fan site selection includes the following steps:
step 1) acquiring accurate coordinates of fan information and point positions to be evaluated;
step 2) collecting risk information near the point location of the fan;
step 3), dividing the total risk R into a direct risk assessment R _ direct and an indirect risk assessment R _ index;
step 4), analyzing point position risk R _ (location-specific) in the direct risk;
step 5) when the standing population in the fan risk influence range is larger than 10 persons, analyzing the community risk R _ social in the direct risk;
step 6) judging the types of nearby high-risk articles according to the nearby risk information collected in the step 2);
step 7) selecting a corresponding risk transfer function according to the high-risk article types judged in the step 6), and calculating an indirect risk R _ index;
and step 8) adding the point location risk R _ (location-specific) and the community risk R _ social calculated in the step 4) and the step 5) respectively and the indirect risk R _ index calculated in the step 7) to obtain a total risk of site selection of the fan, wherein the total risk includes R ═ R + R _ index + R _ (location-specific).
Example 2
A fan site selection risk assessment method comprises the following steps:
step 1) obtaining accurate coordinates of fan information and point positions to be evaluated, wherein the height of a fan hub is 110m, and the length of a blade is 156 m;
step 2) collecting risk information near the fan point location, and collecting that one livestock farm exists in a circular range of 1km of accessories, wherein 2 people live in a long time, one duty room exists, 1 person live in a long time and one booster station exists;
step 3) dividing the total risk R into direct risk assessment RdirectAnd indirect risk assessment Rindirect；
Step 4) analyzing point position risk R in direct risklocation-specificThe method comprises the following four steps:
step 4.1), the main failure modes of the fan are tower collapse, blade damage and cabin damage;
step 4.2) annual failure frequency f corresponding to tower collapse1Is 5.8 x 10-5Number of deaths n11 person; annual failure frequency f corresponding to blade failure2Is 6.4 x 10-4Number of deaths n20.5 persons; annual failure frequency f corresponding to cabin failure3Is 1.8 x 10-5Number of deaths n30.8 persons;
step 4.3) comparing the failure frequency f in step 4.2)iAnd the corresponding number of deaths niMultiplying to obtain a risk parameter R for changing failure modesi；
R1＝f1*n1＝5.8*10-5
R2＝f2*n2＝3.2*10-4
R3＝f3*n3＝1.4*10-5
Step 4.4) according to a formula, obtaining each failure mode risk parameter R in the step 4.3)iSumming to obtain point location risk Rlocation-specific:
Step 5), the standing population within the fan risk influence range is less than 10 persons, and the community risk R in the direct risk is not analyzedsocietal；
Step 6) judging the types of nearby high-risk articles according to the nearby risk information collected in the step 2), wherein the main high-risk articles are the booster station;
step 7) selecting a corresponding risk transfer function according to the high-risk article types judged in the step 6), and calculating an indirect risk Rindirect＝5.2*10-5；
Step 8) calculating the point position risks R respectively calculated in the steps 4) and 5)location-specificAnd community risk RsocietalAnd indirect risk R calculated in step 7)indirectAnd adding to obtain the total risk R of fan site selection:
R＝Rsocietal+Rindirect+Rlocation-specific＝3.92*10-4+0+5.2*10-5
＝4.42*10-4
example 3
A fan site selection risk assessment system comprises:
the wind turbine information acquisition module is used for acquiring wind turbine information of the wind power plant, and the wind turbine information comprises the height of a hub, the length of a blade and the mass, volume and density of each component of a wind turbine;
the point location coordinate acquisition module is used for acquiring point location coordinates of fans of the wind power plant;
the risk information acquisition module is respectively interacted with the fan information acquisition module and the point location coordinate acquisition module and comprises a direct risk information acquisition unit and an indirect risk information acquisition unit;
the direct risk information acquisition unit acquires point location information and community information within a fan risk influence range based on the fan information and the point location coordinates;
the indirect risk information acquisition unit acquires a risk transfer function of high-risk article types in the fan risk influence range based on the point position coordinates;
and the data processing and evaluating module is interacted with the risk information acquiring module and is used for carrying out data processing on the risk information and evaluating the total risk coefficient in the fan risk influence range according to the data processing result.
Example 4
The method of the present invention, if implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, all or part of the flow of the method according to the embodiments of the present invention may also be implemented by a computer program, which may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method embodiments may be implemented. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. Computer-readable storage media, including both non-transitory and non-transitory, removable and non-removable media, may implement information storage by any method or technology. The information may be computer readable instructions, data structures, modules of a program, or other data. It should be noted that the computer readable medium may contain content that is subject to appropriate increase or decrease as required by legislation and patent practice in jurisdictions, for example, in some jurisdictions, computer readable media does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunications signals as is required by legislation and patent practice. The computer storage medium may be any available medium or data storage device that can be accessed by a computer, including but not limited to magnetic memory (e.g., floppy disk, hard disk, magnetic tape, magneto-optical disk (MO), etc.), optical memory (e.g., CD, DVD, BD, HVD, etc.), and semiconductor memory (e.g., ROM, EPROM, EEPROM, nonvolatile memory (NANDFLASH), Solid State Disk (SSD)), etc.
Example 5
In an exemplary embodiment, a computer device is also provided, comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the steps of the inventive method when executing the computer program. The Processor may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), other general purpose Processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), a Field-Programmable gate array (FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, etc.
In conclusion, the method has high operability, is suitable for fans in different topographic characteristics, can systematically evaluate the influence of the fan site selection point on the life safety of the attachment human, is helpful for wind farm developers to select safe wind farm sites, reduces the possibility of safety accidents of the wind farm, and provides a basis for reducing the fan site selection risk.
The above-mentioned contents are only for illustrating the technical idea of the present invention, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereby, and any modification made on the basis of the technical idea of the present invention falls within the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. A fan site selection risk assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring fan information of a wind power plant to be evaluated and point location coordinates of fans;
acquiring risk information of the fan based on the point location coordinates, wherein the risk information comprises direct risk information and indirect risk information; direct risk information includes terrain, population density, and building density; the indirect risk information comprises high-risk article information;
when the resident population in the fan risk influence range is less than 10 people, the direct risk information is the point location risk;
when the resident population in the fan risk influence range is larger than 10 people, the direct risk information comprises point location risk and community risk;
the indirect risk is a risk transfer function obtained based on the high-risk article types in the fan risk influence range;
and evaluating the total risk coefficient in the fan risk influence range based on the direct risk information and the indirect risk information.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the fan information includes a hub height, a blade length, and a mass, a volume, and a density of each component of the fan.
3. The fan site selection risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the risk information of the fan is obtained based on the point location coordinates, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
dividing risk areas and acquiring risk information of the risk areas;
the risk area is a circular area with the point position of the fan as the center of a circle, and the radius of the circle is larger than or equal to 1 km.
4. The fan site selection risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the point location risk obtaining process is as follows:
determining a fan failure mode based on fan information;
searching corresponding failure frequency and the corresponding death number according to the failure mode;
acquiring a risk parameter of a failure mode based on failure frequency and death number;
and summing the risk parameters of the failure modes to obtain the point location risk.
5. The fan site selection risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the community risk obtaining process comprises:
determining a fan failure mode based on fan information;
acquiring the building position and the safety level of the building within the influence range near the fan based on the point position coordinates;
acquiring population density distribution within an influence range near the fan based on the point location coordinates;
calculating indoor risks and outdoor risks corresponding to the failure modes based on different fan failure modes;
and obtaining the community risk based on the summation of the indoor risk and the outdoor risk.
6. The method for assessing the risk of fan site selection according to claim 1, wherein the high-risk species include petroleum pipelines, overground natural gas pipelines, transformer substations and chemical containers.
7. A fan site selection risk assessment system is characterized by comprising:
the wind turbine information acquisition module is used for acquiring wind turbine information of the wind power plant, and the wind turbine information comprises the height of a hub, the length of a blade and the mass, volume and density of each component of a wind turbine;
the point location coordinate acquisition module is used for acquiring point location coordinates of fans of the wind power plant;
the risk information acquisition module is respectively interacted with the fan information acquisition module and the point location coordinate acquisition module and comprises a direct risk information acquisition unit and an indirect risk information acquisition unit;
the direct risk information acquisition unit acquires point location risks and community risks in a fan risk influence range based on fan information and point location coordinates;
the indirect risk information acquisition unit acquires a risk transfer function of high-risk article types in the fan risk influence range based on the point position coordinates;
and the data processing and evaluating module is interacted with the risk information acquiring module and is used for carrying out data processing on the risk information and evaluating the total risk coefficient in the fan risk influence range according to the data processing result.
8. A terminal device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of the method for assessing risk of fan site selection according to any one of claims 1 to 6 when executing the computer program.
9. A computer-readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method for assessing risk of site selection of a wind turbine according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
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2021
- 2021-06-29 CN CN202110730579.7A patent/CN113283678A/en active Pending
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| US8335731B1 (en) * | 2007-12-28 | 2012-12-18 | Vestas Wind Systems A/S | Method of establishing a profitability model related to the establishment of a wind power plant |
| CN107944632A (en) * | 2017-12-06 | 2018-04-20 | 北京天润新能投资有限公司 | A kind of wind farm siting system and site selecting method based on exploitation map |
| CN112634081A (en) * | 2020-12-27 | 2021-04-09 | 中国电建集团河南省电力勘测设计院有限公司 | Systematic plain wind power plant micro-site selection method |
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