CN113269381A - Method for quantitatively evaluating reservoir formation probability of oil and gas reservoir - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for quantitatively evaluating reservoir forming probability of an oil and gas reservoir, which relates to the technical field of rock oil reservoir development and comprises the following steps: obtaining reservoir formation conditions of the target reservoir; analyzing the reservoir formation mode of the target reservoir according to the three-dimensional seismic data and the drilling data; screening out decisive reservoir conditions from the reservoir conditions according to the exploration and/or production stage of the reservoir; obtaining the structural classification of the target reservoir and carrying out quantitative evaluation on each structural classification unit of the reservoir according to the decisive reservoir formation condition; establishing a calculation formula of the quantitative representation parameters of the hydrocarbon-containing probability of the target reservoir, carrying out quantitative scoring on each structural classification unit, and calculating to obtain the quantitative representation parameters of the hydrocarbon-containing probability of each structural classification unit; and determining the hydrocarbon-bearing probability critical value of the target reservoir according to geological conditions so as to determine the reservoir forming probability of the target reservoir. The accumulation probability given by the invention has the advantages of clear conclusion, practical achievement and strong operability and accuracy.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of petroleum exploration and development, in particular to a method for quantitatively evaluating reservoir formation probability of an oil-gas reservoir.
Background
Whether a trap can form a hydrocarbon reservoir with certain development value is controlled by multiple geological conditions, namely, oil production conditions, reservoir conditions, cap conditions, trap conditions, migration conditions and storage conditions, wherein the trap conditions, the migration conditions and the configuration relationship of the trap conditions and the migration conditions are the most critical elements of the hydrocarbon reservoir.
In the oil and gas exploration process, the evaluation of the trap oil and gas content is more and more emphasized. At present, evaluation on trap hydrocarbon-containing property is mainly carried out aiming at 4 aspects of trap geological feature analysis, main control factor analysis of trap hydrocarbon-containing property, trap reservoir formation mechanism research and trap comprehensive evaluation. At present, mode identification or reservoir formation mechanism identification methods are mostly adopted to evaluate reservoir formation probability of oil and gas reservoirs in the prior art, but evaluation methods of trap hydrocarbon content have differences in different basins, different structural zones, different trap types and different exploration degrees, so that reservoir formation research in the prior art is mode analysis and qualitative analysis, a quantitative or semi-quantitative evaluation method is not developed, the limitation of the qualitative evaluation method brings great risk to evaluation of trap hydrocarbon content, and the evaluation technology of the method needs to be deeply researched.
Disclosure of Invention
The method aims to solve the problem that a geological model with single data or research results cannot meet accurate description of a complex reservoir in the prior art, and provides a method for quantitatively evaluating the reservoir forming probability of an oil and gas reservoir for an oil field with the complex reservoir.
In order to achieve the above object, the present application provides the following technical solutions: a method for quantitatively evaluating the reservoir forming probability of an oil and gas reservoir comprises the following steps:
acquiring a reservoir forming condition of a target reservoir according to geological data, well logging interpretation, seismic data and well drilling data of the target reservoir; the reservoir forming conditions comprise oil production conditions, reservoir conditions, cap layer conditions, trapping conditions, migration conditions and storage conditions;
analyzing a reservoir formation mode of the target reservoir according to the three-dimensional seismic data and the well drilling data of the target reservoir;
screening out decisive reservoir forming conditions from the reservoir forming conditions of the target reservoir according to the exploration and/or production stage of the target reservoir;
obtaining the structural classification of the target reservoir according to the geological data and the drilling data of the target reservoir, and quantitatively evaluating each structural classification unit of the target reservoir according to the decisive reservoir forming condition of the target reservoir;
establishing a calculation formula of the quantitative representation parameter of the hydrocarbon-containing probability of the target reservoir, carrying out quantitative scoring according to each structural classification unit of the target reservoir, and calculating to obtain the quantitative representation parameter of the hydrocarbon-containing probability of each structural classification unit of the target reservoir;
and determining the hydrocarbon-bearing probability critical value of the target reservoir according to the geological condition of the target reservoir, and determining the reservoir forming probability of the target reservoir according to the hydrocarbon-bearing probability critical value of the target reservoir.
In the technical scheme, the distribution conditions of the target reservoir, the oil source and the conduction fault can be obtained according to the three-dimensional seismic data and the well drilling data of the target reservoir, so that the whole process from generation to conduction of oil and gas to the reservoir is obtained, and the process is called an oil and gas reservoir formation mode. In the above technical solution, the geological condition refers to the oil column height of each structural classification unit disclosed by the well drilling data.
In the technical scheme, the traps with higher reservoir probability can be screened out quickly through the quantitative calculation of the oil and gas reservoir probability of the target reservoir, and different traps are sequenced on the basis of the reservoir probability, so that a basis is provided for evaluating the well implementation sequence; meanwhile, based on a large amount of data of the formed sand bodies, a quantitative evaluation chart of two key factors, namely a trap condition and a migration condition, is established; in addition, the technical scheme also explores the critical probability value of the oil-gas reservoir formation, and the reservoir formation probability of the target reservoir can be quickly obtained through the critical probability value of the oil-gas reservoir formation.
Further, the crude oil condition is obtained by acquiring the relative position of the crude oil depression position where the target reservoir is located and the target reservoir through a geological structure diagram of the geological data;
the reservoir condition obtains reservoir spread characteristics and sedimentary facies characteristics of the target reservoir through the stratum distribution in the geological data, the drilling data and the seismic data;
the cover layer condition is obtained by comparing each small layer in the stratum distribution of the target reservoir and according to the position of the small layer where the stable mudstone is located in the drilling data;
the trap condition is interpreted through a seismic structure in the seismic data to obtain trap characteristics and trap amplitude of the target reservoir;
acquiring fault distribution of the target reservoir layer through fault seismic interpretation of the target reservoir layer in the seismic data under the migration condition;
the preservation condition is obtained by the cap condition. And when the mudstone of the target reservoir is stable and thick, the default storage condition of the target reservoir is better.
It should be noted that the above 6 reservoir formation conditions of the target reservoir are obtained by evaluating geological data, well logging interpretation, seismic data and well drilling data of the target reservoir.
Further, the analyzing the reservoir-forming mode of the target reservoir according to the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir comprises the following steps:
tracking and explaining the fault of the deep-cut oil source by using the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir, and comprehensively judging the distribution of the fault of the oil source by combining fault activity analysis;
depicting and explaining the lapping condition of a secondary fault and an oil source fault by using the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir;
the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir stratum are utilized to explain the structural form of the target reservoir stratum and depict the trap characteristic of the target reservoir stratum;
and comprehensively simulating the process from generation to oil source fault conduction, from oil source fault conduction to secondary fault conduction, to lateral conduction into the reservoir, and finally to trap formation of the oil-gas reservoir, so as to obtain the formation mode of the target reservoir.
In the technical scheme, the fault of the deep-cut oil source is also called an oil source fault, and the oil source refers to oil-bearing hydrocarbon crude rock. The fault activity can be generally obtained from fault distance, the larger the fault distance is, the stronger the activity is, and the fault distance can be directly obtained from three-dimensional seismic data interpretation. The distribution of the oil source fault is also obtained from the three-dimensional seismic data interpretation, the fault on the plane develops near the crude oil pit and longitudinally extends to the layer position where the hydrocarbon original rock develops, and the fault is judged to be the oil source fault if the fault distance is large. The secondary fault is generally shallow in the longitudinal direction and does not extend to the development layer of the source rock, and the oil source fault extends to the development layer of the source rock. The cross section of the three-dimensional seismic data can visually see the lapping condition of the fault. The lap joint analysis of the fault prepares for the establishment of an oil and gas transmission and guide system, and the oil source fault transmission and guide score is higher than that of the secondary fault transmission and guide score when the migration condition is quantitatively evaluated.
Further, when the target reservoir is in an oil field exploration stage, the decisive reservoir conditions comprise oil production conditions, reservoir conditions, cap rock conditions, trap conditions, migration conditions and storage conditions;
when the target reservoir is in the field development phase, the determinative reservoir conditions include trap conditions and migration conditions.
The oil field is generally divided into an oil field exploration phase and an oil field development phase. The process of finding and developing the oil field is called the oil field development stage when the oil field abandonment is known after the oil field investment and development in the oil field exploration stage.
For the initial exploration, because the drilling data is less, the recognition of the accumulation mode is less, the accumulation main control factors are relatively more, and generally, the conditions of 6-step accumulation are considered. But the discovered mature oil field needs rolling evaluation to search more reserve reserves, and the oil production condition, the reservoir condition, the cap layer condition and the preservation condition are all mature knowledge, so the key factors of the reservoir formation are mainly the trapping condition and the migration condition.
Further, the quantitatively evaluating each construction unit of the target reservoir comprises quantitatively evaluating a trap condition and quantitatively evaluating a migration condition.
Further, the trap condition quantitative evaluation is carried out according to the trap type of the target reservoir; the trap types of the target reservoir stratum comprise a back-to-back trap, a broken block trap and a lithologic trap; the construction unit is the trap type of the target reservoir in the trap condition quantitative evaluation;
it should be noted that the trapping condition has a certain relationship with the oil-gas content, and the better the trapping condition, the higher the possibility of oil-gas content. Statistics show that the conditions of anticline and broken anticline trap are optimal, and then the conditions are broken block trap and lithologic trap. The quantitative evaluation score of the anticline trap is 0.9-1.0; the quantitative evaluation score of the broken dorsiflexion includescence is 0.9-1.0; the quantitative evaluation score of the fault block trap is 0.8-0.9, and the quantitative evaluation score of the lithologic trap is 0.6-0.7.
And obtaining the trap condition quantitative evaluation layout of the target reservoir according to the distribution and quantitative evaluation result of each construction unit of the target reservoir. Preferably, the trapping condition quantitative evaluation layout of the target reservoir is applied to a mature constructed reservoir.
Further, the migration condition quantitative evaluation is carried out according to whether the migration fault is an oil source fault or not and the relationship between the migration dredging system and the oil source or the oil source fault.
Furthermore, the types of the migration dredging system comprise direct dredging of a dredging source fault, miss-dredging source fault of a secondary fault, and migration of the dredging source fault by a gravel rock framework after fault dredging; the construction unit is the type of a migration and dispersion system of the target reservoir stratum in the quantitative evaluation of migration conditions;
the quantitative evaluation score of the direct dredging of the channel fault is 0.9-1.0, the quantitative evaluation score of the secondary fault overlapping the channel fault is 0.7-0.8, and the quantitative evaluation score of the sandstone framework after fault guidance is 0.6-0.7.
Further, the calculation formula of the quantitative characterization parameter of the hydrocarbon containing probability is as follows:
P＝Ptrap ring*PMigration；
Wherein, the PTrap ringQuantitatively evaluating the trap condition of the target reservoir;
the P isMigrationQuantitatively evaluating the migration condition of the target reservoir.
By geological analysis and quantitative scoring of the trapping condition and the migration condition, the oil-gas containing probability P of evaluating the trapping can be comprehensively obtained. The larger the P value, the greater the probability of accumulation.
Further, the hydrocarbon-containing probability threshold is obtained by:
carrying out trap condition quantitative scoring and migration condition quantitative scoring according to all traps drilled in the target reservoir, and calculating to obtain quantitative characterization parameters of hydrocarbon-containing probability;
and counting the height of an oil column of the existing well drilling of the target reservoir stratum, establishing a scatter diagram of the oil-gas-containing probability value P and the height of the oil column, and determining the critical value of the oil-gas-containing probability according to the principle that the height of the oil column is greater than 0 when the value is greater than P and is less than 0 when the value is less than P.
When the quantitative characterization parameter P of the hydrocarbon-containing probability is larger than 0.5, the trapping and reservoir-forming probability of the target reservoir stratum is high; and when the quantitative characterization parameter P of the hydrocarbon-containing probability is less than 0.5, the trap of the target reservoir is a water layer.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the application discloses a method for quantitatively evaluating the reservoir formation probability of an oil-gas reservoir, traps with higher reservoir formation probability can be screened out quickly through quantitative calculation of the reservoir formation probability of the oil-gas reservoir, different traps are sequenced based on the reservoir formation probability, and a basis is provided for the implementation sequence of an evaluation well; the invention explores the critical probability value of the oil and gas reservoir formation in the research area, and the result has higher goodness of fit with the actual drilling situation. The quantitative evaluation chart provided by the invention has the advantages of convenient operation, clear conclusion, practical result and strong operability and accuracy.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for quantitatively evaluating reservoir formation probability of a hydrocarbon reservoir as disclosed in some embodiments of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic illustration of a reservoir pattern of an oilfield according to embodiments disclosed in some embodiments of the invention;
FIG. 3 is a template for quantitative evaluation of the entrapment conditions of an oilfield according to an embodiment disclosed in some embodiments of the invention;
FIG. 4 is a template for quantitative evaluation of migration conditions for an oilfield according to embodiments disclosed in some embodiments of the inventions;
FIG. 5 is a cross-sectional view of a reservoir formation process at an oilfield according to an embodiment of the disclosure disclosed in some embodiments of the invention;
FIG. 6 is a plan view of a reservoir formation process for an oilfield according to an embodiment disclosed in some embodiments of the invention;
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to test examples and specific embodiments. It should be understood that the scope of the above-described subject matter is not limited to the following examples, and any techniques implemented based on the disclosure of the present invention are within the scope of the present invention.
In the oil and gas exploration process, the evaluation of the trap oil and gas content is more and more emphasized. At present, evaluation on trap hydrocarbon-containing property is mainly carried out aiming at 4 aspects of trap geological feature analysis, main control factor analysis of trap hydrocarbon-containing property, trap reservoir formation mechanism research and trap comprehensive evaluation. The evaluation is mostly carried out by adopting a mode recognition method or a hiding mechanism recognition method. And different traps with different basins, different structural zones, different trap types and different exploration degrees exist, and the evaluation method of trap oil-gas content also has difference.
In order to solve the technical problem, the inventor proposes a method for quantitatively evaluating the reservoir forming probability of the oil and gas reservoir in the application, and referring to fig. 1, the method comprises the following steps:
s1: obtaining geological data, logging interpretation, seismic data and well drilling data of a target reservoir stratum, and obtaining the reservoir forming conditions of the target reservoir stratum; the reservoir forming conditions comprise oil production conditions, reservoir conditions, cap layer conditions, trapping conditions, migration conditions and storage conditions;
s2: analyzing a reservoir formation mode of the target reservoir according to the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir;
s3: screening out decisive reservoir forming conditions from the reservoir forming conditions of the target reservoir according to the exploration and/or production stage of the target reservoir;
s4: obtaining the structural classification of the target reservoir according to the geological data and the drilling data of the target reservoir, and quantitatively evaluating each structural classification unit of the target reservoir according to the decisive reservoir forming condition of the target reservoir;
s5: establishing a calculation formula of the quantitative representation parameter of the hydrocarbon-containing probability of the target reservoir, carrying out quantitative scoring according to each structural classification unit of the target reservoir, and calculating to obtain the quantitative representation parameter of the hydrocarbon-containing probability of each structural classification unit of the target reservoir;
s6: and determining the hydrocarbon-bearing probability critical value of the target reservoir according to the geological condition of the target reservoir, and determining the reservoir forming probability of the target reservoir according to the hydrocarbon-bearing probability critical value of the target reservoir.
In step S1, the crude oil condition is obtained by obtaining a relative position between a crude oil depression position where the target reservoir is located and the target reservoir through a geological structure map of the geological data;
the reservoir condition obtains reservoir spread characteristics and sedimentary facies characteristics of the target reservoir through the stratum distribution in the geological data, the drilling data and the seismic data;
the cover layer condition is obtained by comparing each small layer in the stratum distribution of the target reservoir and according to the position of the small layer where the stable mudstone is located in the drilling data;
the trap condition is interpreted through a seismic structure in the seismic data to obtain trap characteristics and trap amplitude of the target reservoir;
acquiring fault distribution of the target reservoir layer through fault seismic interpretation of the target reservoir layer in the seismic data under the migration condition;
the preservation condition is obtained by the cap condition. And when the mudstone of the target reservoir is stable and thick, the default storage condition of the target reservoir is better.
It should be noted that the above 6 reservoir formation conditions of the target reservoir are obtained by evaluating geological data, well logging interpretation, seismic data and well drilling data of the target reservoir.
In step S2, the analyzing the reservoir formation pattern of the target reservoir according to the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir includes the following steps:
s21: tracking and explaining the fault of the deep-cut oil source by using the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir, and comprehensively judging the distribution of the fault of the oil source by combining fault activity analysis;
s22: depicting and explaining the lapping condition of a secondary fault and an oil source fault by using the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir;
s23: the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir stratum are utilized to explain the structural form of the target reservoir stratum and depict the trap characteristic of the target reservoir stratum;
s24: and comprehensively simulating the process from generation to oil source fault conduction, from oil source fault conduction to secondary fault conduction, to lateral conduction into the reservoir, and finally to trap formation of the oil-gas reservoir, so as to obtain the formation mode of the target reservoir.
It should be noted that, in the step S2, when the target reservoir is in the exploration phase of the oil field, the decisive reservoir conditions include oil production conditions, reservoir conditions, cap rock conditions, trap conditions, migration conditions and storage conditions;
when the target reservoir is in the field development phase, the determinative reservoir conditions include trap conditions and migration conditions.
For the initial exploration, because the drilling data is less, the recognition of the accumulation mode is less, the accumulation main control factors are relatively more, and generally, the conditions of 6-step accumulation are considered. But the discovered mature oil field needs rolling evaluation to search more reserve reserves, and the oil production condition, the reservoir condition, the cap layer condition and the preservation condition are all mature knowledge, so the key factors of the reservoir formation are mainly the trapping condition and the migration condition.
It should be noted that, in the step S3, the performing quantitative estimation on each structural unit of the target reservoir includes performing quantitative estimation on a trapping condition and performing quantitative estimation on a migration condition.
It should be noted that the trap condition quantitative evaluation is performed according to the trap type of the target reservoir; the trap types of the target reservoir stratum comprise a back-to-back trap, a broken block trap and a lithologic trap; the construction unit is the trap type of the target reservoir in the trap condition quantitative evaluation;
it should be noted that the trapping condition has a certain relationship with the oil-gas content, and the better the trapping condition, the higher the possibility of oil-gas content. Statistics show that the conditions of anticline and broken anticline trap are optimal, and then the conditions are broken block trap and lithologic trap. The quantitative evaluation score of the anticline trap is 0.9-1.0; the quantitative evaluation score of the broken dorsiflexion includescence is 0.9-1.0; the quantitative evaluation score of the fault block trap is 0.8-0.9, and the quantitative evaluation score of the lithologic trap is 0.6-0.7.
And obtaining the trap condition quantitative evaluation layout of the target reservoir according to the distribution and quantitative evaluation result of each construction unit of the target reservoir. Preferably, the trapping condition quantitative evaluation layout of the target reservoir is applied to a mature constructed reservoir.
In step S4, the migration condition quantitative evaluation is performed based on whether the migration fault is an oil source fault or not and the relationship between the migration dredging system and the oil source or the oil source fault.
The type of the transportation dredging system comprises direct dredging of a communication source fault, miss-connected communication source fault of a secondary fault, and transportation of a gravel rock framework after dredging of the fault; the construction unit is the type of a migration and dispersion system of the target reservoir stratum in the quantitative evaluation of migration conditions;
the quantitative evaluation score of the direct dredging of the channel fault is 0.9-1.0, the quantitative evaluation score of the secondary fault overlapping the channel fault is 0.8-0.9, and the quantitative evaluation score of the sandstone framework after fault guidance is 0.6-0.7.
In step S5, the quantitative characterization parameter of the hydrocarbon-containing probability is calculated as:
P＝Ptrap ring*PMigration；
Wherein, the PTrap ringQuantitatively evaluating the trap condition of the target reservoir;
the P isMigrationQuantitatively evaluating the migration condition of the target reservoir.
By geological analysis and quantitative scoring of the trapping condition and the migration condition, the oil-gas containing probability P of evaluating the trapping can be comprehensively obtained. The larger the P value, the greater the probability of accumulation.
It should be noted that, for a single structural unit, its trap type and migration system are determined, and only values corresponding to the layout are needed, and if different structural units are all anticline traps, the relative sizes are determined by comparing the structural amplitudes. Directly multiplying to obtain P value.
In step S6, the hydrocarbon-containing probability threshold is obtained by:
carrying out trap condition quantitative scoring and migration condition quantitative scoring according to all traps drilled in the target reservoir, and calculating to obtain quantitative characterization parameters of hydrocarbon-containing probability;
and counting the height of an oil column of the existing well drilling of the target reservoir stratum, establishing a scatter diagram of the oil-gas-containing probability value P and the height of the oil column, and determining the critical value of the oil-gas-containing probability according to the principle that the height of the oil column is greater than 0 when the value is greater than P and is less than 0 when the value is less than P.
The method is verified by taking a certain oil field as an example.
The oil field is located in the south sea area of the Bohai sea, and structurally located in a sunken northwest depression of a yellow river mouth and a low-bulge south-bound large fault descent tray of the Bohai sea. The fault development in the oil field range is of a broken anticline structure controlled by a big fault of a north boundary, the faults are distributed in the east-west direction, and the shallow level faults divide the oil field into different fault blocks.
The reservoir formation pattern of the oil field is analyzed according to the three-dimensional seismic data of the oil field, and the analysis result is shown in fig. 2. It can be seen from fig. 2 that F1 and F7 are oil source segment layers, and F5, F8, F13 and F11 are secondary faults, wherein F8, F13 and F11 are lapped on an oil source fault F1. After oil gas is generated, the oil gas is transported to a 4-well area through an F1 fault, the oil gas in a 1-well area is transported and conducted through an F1 through source fault, the oil gas in a secondary fault is transported and conducted again through an F8, the oil gas in a 6-well area is transported and conducted through a source fault F7, and finally the oil gas enters a reservoir layer to form a reservoir, so that an oil gas reservoir forming mode of a certain oil field is formed.
Since the oil field is a mature oil field, the key factors for the oil field to become reservoirs are mainly trapping conditions and migration conditions. Performing quantitative evaluation on the trapping conditions of the oil field, wherein the evaluation result is shown in figure 3; the migration condition of the oil field was quantitatively evaluated, and the evaluation result is shown in fig. 4.
The formula is calculated according to the quantitative characterization parameters of the oil-gas containing probability:
P＝Ptrap ring*PMigration；
And (3) calculating to obtain quantitative characterization parameters of the oil-gas-containing probability of the oil field, and obtaining a reservoir formation process layout of the oil field, referring to fig. 5 and 6. From the figure, it can be seen that the oil field has three traps, and the quantitative evaluation of the hydrocarbon-containing gas is carried out on the three traps, and the hydrocarbon-containing gas probability values of 3 traps are given:
and (3) trap 1: and (4) directly conducting the normal fault, cutting off the back and closing the inclined ring, calculating to obtain the oil-gas reservoir probability value P which is 0.9, and actually drilling to reveal the height of an oil column of 10 m.
And (3) trap 2: and (4) conducting by overlapping the secondary fault with the normal fault, blocking the oil reservoir, calculating to obtain the oil-gas reservoir formation probability value P which is 0.64, and actually drilling to reveal the height of the 4m oil column.
And (3) trap: and (4) carrying out secondary fault overlap common source fault + conglomerate skeleton conduction, carrying out back-off inclined trap, calculating to obtain an oil-gas accumulation probability value P which is 0.72, and actually drilling to reveal the height of an oil column of 6 m.
Total drilling revealed exploratory reserves in excess of 300 million squares.
Therefore, the oil-gas-containing property evaluation method provided by the invention is convenient to operate, clear in conclusion, practical in result and strong in operability and accuracy.
The preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail, however, the present invention is not limited to the specific details of the above embodiments, and various simple modifications may be made to the technical solution of the present invention within the technical idea of the present invention, and these simple modifications are within the protective scope of the present invention.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents and improvements made within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for quantitatively evaluating the reservoir forming probability of an oil and gas reservoir is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a reservoir forming condition of a target reservoir according to geological data, well logging interpretation, seismic data and well drilling data of the target reservoir; the reservoir forming conditions comprise oil production conditions, reservoir conditions, cap layer conditions, trapping conditions, migration conditions and storage conditions;
analyzing a reservoir formation mode of the target reservoir according to the three-dimensional seismic data and the well drilling data of the target reservoir;
screening out decisive reservoir forming conditions from the reservoir forming conditions of the target reservoir according to the exploration and/or production stage of the target reservoir;
obtaining the structural classification of the target reservoir according to the geological data and the drilling data of the target reservoir, and quantitatively evaluating each structural classification unit of the target reservoir according to the decisive reservoir forming condition of the target reservoir;
establishing a calculation formula of the quantitative representation parameter of the hydrocarbon-containing probability of the target reservoir, carrying out quantitative scoring according to each structural classification unit of the target reservoir, and calculating to obtain the quantitative representation parameter of the hydrocarbon-containing probability of each structural classification unit of the target reservoir;
and determining the hydrocarbon-bearing probability critical value of the target reservoir according to the geological condition of the target reservoir, and determining the reservoir forming probability of the target reservoir according to the hydrocarbon-bearing probability critical value of the target reservoir.
2. The method for quantitatively evaluating the reservoir forming probability of oil and gas as claimed in claim 1, wherein the oil-producing condition is obtained by acquiring the relative position of the oil-producing depression position where the target reservoir is located and the target reservoir through a geological structure map of the geological data;
the reservoir condition obtains reservoir spread characteristics and sedimentary facies characteristics of the target reservoir through the stratum distribution in the geological data, the drilling data and the seismic data;
the cover layer condition is obtained by comparing each small layer in the stratum distribution of the target reservoir and according to the position of the small layer where the stable mudstone is located in the drilling data;
the trap condition is interpreted through a seismic structure in the seismic data to obtain trap characteristics and trap amplitude of the target reservoir; acquiring fault distribution of the target reservoir layer through fault seismic interpretation of the target reservoir layer in the seismic data under the migration condition;
the preservation condition is obtained by the cap condition.
3. The method for quantitatively evaluating the hydrocarbon reservoir deposit probability according to claim 1, wherein the analyzing the deposit formation pattern of the target reservoir according to the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir comprises the following steps:
tracking and explaining the fault of the deep-cut oil source by using the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir, and comprehensively judging the distribution of the fault of the oil source by combining fault activity analysis;
depicting and explaining the lapping condition of a secondary fault and an oil source fault by using the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir;
the three-dimensional seismic data of the target reservoir stratum are utilized to explain the structural form of the target reservoir stratum and depict the trap characteristic of the target reservoir stratum;
and comprehensively simulating the process from generation to oil source fault conduction, from oil source fault conduction to secondary fault conduction, to lateral conduction into the reservoir, and finally to trap formation of the oil-gas reservoir, so as to obtain the formation mode of the target reservoir.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein when the target reservoir is in an exploration phase of an oil field, the determinative reservoir conditions include oil production conditions, reservoir conditions, cap conditions, trap conditions, migration conditions, and storage conditions;
when the target reservoir is in the field development phase, the determinative reservoir conditions include trap conditions and migration conditions.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the quantitatively evaluating each constitutional unit of the target reservoir includes quantitatively evaluating a trap condition and quantitatively evaluating a migration condition.
6. The method for quantitatively evaluating the reservoir formation probability of a hydrocarbon reservoir according to claim 5, wherein the trap condition quantitative evaluation is performed according to the trap type of the target reservoir; the trap types of the target reservoir stratum comprise a back-to-back trap, a broken block trap and a lithologic trap; the construction unit is the trap type of the target reservoir in the trap condition quantitative evaluation;
the quantitative evaluation score of the anticline trap is 0.9-1.0; the quantitative evaluation score of the broken dorsiflexion includescence is 0.9-1.0; the quantitative evaluation score of the fault block trap is 0.8-0.9, and the quantitative evaluation score of the lithologic trap is 0.6-0.7.
7. The method of claim 5, wherein the migration condition quantitative evaluation is based on whether the migration fault is an oil source fault and the relationship between the migration dredging system and the oil source or the oil source fault.
8. The method for quantitatively evaluating the reservoir forming probability of the oil and gas reservoir according to claim 7, wherein the migration dredging system types comprise direct dredging of a drift fault, miss-grown dredging of a secondary fault, migration of a gravel framework after fault dredging; the construction unit is the type of a migration and dispersion system of the target reservoir stratum in the quantitative evaluation of migration conditions;
the quantitative evaluation score of the direct dredging of the channel fault is 0.9-1.0, the quantitative evaluation score of the secondary fault overlapping the channel fault is 0.7-0.8, and the quantitative evaluation score of the sandstone framework after fault guidance is 0.6-0.7.
9. The method for quantitatively evaluating the reservoir formation probability of a hydrocarbon reservoir according to claim 1, wherein the quantitative characterization parameter for the hydrocarbon-bearing probability is calculated by the formula:
P＝Ptrap ring*PMigration；
Wherein, the PTrap ringQuantitatively evaluating the trap condition of the target reservoir;
the P isMigrationQuantitatively evaluating the migration condition for the target reservoir。
10. The method of quantitatively evaluating the reservoir formation probability of a hydrocarbon reservoir according to claim 1, wherein: the hydrocarbon-containing probability threshold is obtained by the following steps:
carrying out trap condition quantitative scoring and migration condition quantitative scoring according to all traps drilled in the target reservoir, and calculating to obtain quantitative characterization parameters of hydrocarbon-containing probability;
and counting the height of an oil column of the existing well drilling of the target reservoir stratum, establishing a scatter diagram of the oil-gas-containing probability value P and the height of the oil column, and determining the critical value of the oil-gas-containing probability according to the principle that the height of the oil column is greater than 0 when the value is greater than P and is less than 0 when the value is less than P.
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