CN113255956A - Urban atmospheric pollution prediction method - Google Patents
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- 239000000779 smoke Substances 0.000 claims abstract description 6
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for predicting urban atmospheric pollution, which comprises the following steps: (A1) carrying out navigation in a city to obtain pollution sources and pollution concentration data; carrying out grid division on the navigation area; (A2) combining the pollution concentration data with grid division to obtain the grid data of the pollution concentration of the city; (A3) collecting geographic and meteorological data of the city to obtain a diffusion dilution matrixT(ii) a (A4) Substituting the pollution concentration gridding data and the diffusion dilution matrix into a narrow smoke cloud dilution matrix to obtain a pollution source intensity matrix with local characteristics, and further obtaining pollution source intensity dataQ(ii) a (A5) To obtain the diffusion concentration of the pollutionC(ii) a (A6) And superposing the predicted concentration after the source strong diffusion on any grid to obtain the gridded atmospheric pollution predicted concentration. The invention has the advantages of accurate prediction and the likeAnd (4) point.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to atmospheric pollution, in particular to a method for predicting urban atmospheric pollution.
Background
PM2.5Is one of the important pollutants in the atmosphere, and is suitable for the atmospheric environment and human bodyHealth is seriously compromised. Currently about PM2.5The monitoring technology of (2) is mature, and the PM is monitored at present2.5The pollution prediction technology is mainly based on an air quality model (WRF-Chem, CMAQ, CAMx and the like) or a characteristic data machine training method.
Conventional PM2.5The pollution prediction method needs a large amount of monitoring data and has a large investment. Local source list data are needed for prediction work based on the air quality mode, and many areas in China do not have complete source lists and are long in updating year limit, so that local characteristics and timeliness of prediction results are poor. But only consider big data machine training method, not consider PM from environmental point of view2.5Predicting PM in atmospheric pollution processes from emission sources to diffusion2.5There are limitations and defects in concentration.
In order to reduce the environmental monitoring cost, increase the environmental monitoring flexibility and solve the problem of pain points of lack of locality and lack of process property of the pollution prediction result, the patent provides a city atmospheric pollution prediction method, such as atmospheric PM2.5A pollution prediction method.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a method for predicting urban atmospheric pollution.
The purpose of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
the urban atmospheric pollution prediction method comprises the following steps:
(A1) carrying out navigation in a city to obtain pollution sources and pollution concentration data;
carrying out grid division on the navigation area;
(A2) combining the pollution concentration data with grid division to obtain the grid data of the pollution concentration of the city;
(A3) collecting geographic and meteorological data of the city to obtain a diffusion dilution matrix T;
(A4) substituting the pollution concentration gridding data and the diffusion dilution matrix into a narrow smoke cloud dilution matrix to obtain a pollution source intensity matrix with local characteristics, so as to obtain pollution source intensity data Q;
(A5) the concentration of the pollution diffusion C is obtained,
ux、uyand uzAre wind velocity vectors in x, y, z directions, respectively, H is the pollution source height, σx、σy、σzDiffusion parameters in the x, y and z directions respectively, and t is time;
(A6) and superposing the predicted concentration after the source strong diffusion on any grid to obtain the gridded atmospheric pollution predicted concentration.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. compared with the traditional fixed station monitoring, the sailing mobile monitoring has the advantages of flexible operation, wide monitoring range, high spatial resolution and the like;
2. the demand of data volume is small, and the data usability is strong based on the one-time sailing acquisition source under the condition that the urban atmospheric emission source is stable;
3. the Gaussian diffusion model with the introduced time parameters considers the superposition effect of the smoke clusters, and the optimized Gaussian model has higher accuracy in multi-source diffusion simulation;
4. compared with a large-scale prediction mode, the method combining the source intensity inversion and the multi-source diffusion model is more suitable for the pollutant prediction in a small-scale range;
5. and the subsequent pollution prediction is carried out based on the actually measured data, and the method has the advantages of strong effectiveness, definite local pollution characteristics and the like.
Drawings
The disclosure of the present invention will become more readily understood with reference to the accompanying drawings. As is readily understood by those skilled in the art: these drawings are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. In the figure:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for urban atmospheric pollution prediction according to an embodiment of the invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a prediction result of the urban atmospheric pollution prediction method according to the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
Fig. 1-2 and the following description depict alternative embodiments of the invention to teach those skilled in the art how to make and reproduce the invention. Some conventional aspects have been simplified or omitted for the purpose of teaching the present invention. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that variations or substitutions from these embodiments will be within the scope of the invention. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the features described below can be combined in various ways to form multiple variations of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not limited to the following alternative embodiments, but is only limited by the claims and their equivalents.
Example 1:
fig. 1 shows a flow chart of an urban atmospheric pollution prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 1, the urban atmospheric pollution prediction method includes the following steps:
(A1) carrying out navigation in a city to obtain pollution sources and pollution concentration data;
carrying out grid division on the navigation area;
(A2) combining the pollution concentration data with grid division to obtain the grid data of the pollution concentration of the city;
(A3) collecting geographic and meteorological data of the city to obtain a diffusion dilution matrix T;
(A4) substituting the pollution concentration gridding data and the diffusion dilution matrix into a narrow smoke cloud dilution matrix to obtain a pollution source intensity matrix with local characteristics, so as to obtain pollution source intensity data Q;
(A5) the concentration of the pollution diffusion C is obtained,
ux、uyand uzAre wind velocity vectors in x, y, z directions, respectively, H is the pollution source height, σx、σy、σzDiffusion parameters in the x, y and z directions respectively, and t is time;
(A6) and superposing the predicted concentration after the source strong diffusion on any grid to obtain the gridded atmospheric pollution predicted concentration.
In order to obtain a prediction closer to the actual situation, further, the urban atmospheric pollution prediction method further comprises the following steps:
(A7) kriging interpolation was performed on the predicted concentrations using Arcgis.
To obtain more complete data, further, the geographic and meteorological data include topographical features, temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, rain, pollution source altitude, and atmospheric particulate matter dry and wet settling.
In order to accurately obtain the diffusion coefficient, further, the diffusion parameter is obtained by:
according to the atmospheric diffusion capability grade of the city, diffusion coefficients sigma in the directions of x, y and z are respectively obtained on a PassQuel diffusion curvex、σy、σz。
In order to accurately obtain the atmospheric diffusivity grade, further, the atmospheric diffusivity grade is obtained according to meteorological data, wherein the meteorological data comprises the cloud cover and the wind speed of the city.
Example 2:
urban PM (particulate matter) prediction method for urban atmospheric pollution according to embodiment 1 of the invention2.5Application example in pollution prediction.
In this application example, the urban atmosphere PM2.5A contamination prediction method comprising the steps of:
(A1) carrying out navigation in a city to obtain pollution sources and pollution concentration data;
for PM2.5Carrying out early-stage layout analysis on a heavily polluted city, defining functional districts of the city, and judging typical PM2.5A source of emissions. Develop multi-azimuth PM of a certain city2.5The navigation work is carried out, and the navigation areas comprise highways, factories, residential districts, parks, schools, hospitals, scenic spots, business centers and the like;
obtaining PM of a certain city by means of navigation monitoring2.5High spatial resolution density data, data scoreThe resolution is second level, and basically covers a main area of a certain city;
carrying out grid division on the navigation area: dividing the grid of the internal area by taking the route of the outermost periphery of the navigation as a boundary, wherein the divided grid is 1km multiplied by 1km according to the size of the boundary;
(A2) combining the pollution concentration data with grid division to obtain the grid data of the pollution concentration of the city, which specifically comprises the following steps:
high resolution PM2.5Combining the concentration data with the grids, and performing data dimension reduction treatment to enable each grid point to correspond to one PM2.5Concentration data, namely obtaining PM of a certain city2.5Concentration gridding data;
(A3) collecting geographic and meteorological data of the city, including terrain characteristics, temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, rainfall, pollution source altitude, PM2.5Obtaining a diffusion dilution matrix T by using data such as dry-wet sedimentation and the like, wherein the specific obtaining mode is the prior art in the field;
(A4) substituting the pollution concentration gridding data and the diffusion dilution matrix into a narrow smoke cloud dilution matrix (SSIM) mode to obtain a pollution source strong matrix with local characteristics, so as to obtain pollution source strong data Q;
(A5) the concentration of the pollution diffusion C is obtained,
ux、uyand uzAre wind velocity vectors in x, y, z directions, respectively, H is the pollution source height, σx、σy、σzDiffusion parameters in the x, y and z directions respectively, and t is time;
diffusion parameter σx、σy、σzThe obtaining method is as follows:
according to meteorological factors such as cloud cover, wind speed and sunshine, the atmospheric diffusion capacity is divided into six grades (table 1) of strong instability (A), instability (B), weak instability (C), neutrality (D), less instability (E) and stability (F), and the atmospheric diffusion capacity is obtained according to monitoringDetermining the atmospheric diffusion capacity grade according to meteorological data, substituting the atmospheric diffusion capacity grade into a Passerier (P-G) diffusion curve, and giving out a diffusion coefficient sigma in the directions of x, y and z by the P-G curvex、σy、σz;
TABLE 1
(A6) After t time, all the PM strongly discharged from the source2.5Through the atmospheric diffusion process, interactive diffusion is generated in the urban area grid, the predicted concentration after strong diffusion of all sources at the same grid point is superposed, and the gridded PM is obtained2.5Predicting concentration data;
(A7) taking into account the spatial correlation of the gridded data, Arcgis is adopted for PM2.5Kriging interpolation is carried out on gridding predicted concentration data to ensure that PM of a certain market2.5The concentration prediction result is closer to the actual situation, and the PM which is about to appear in the region can be visually reflected in space2.5Contamination, as shown in fig. 2.
Claims (6)
1. The urban atmospheric pollution prediction method comprises the following steps:
(A1) carrying out navigation in a city to obtain pollution sources and pollution concentration data;
carrying out grid division on the navigation area;
(A2) combining the pollution concentration data with grid division to obtain the grid data of the pollution concentration of the city;
(A3) collecting geographic and meteorological data of the city to obtain a diffusion dilution matrix T;
(A4) substituting the pollution concentration gridding data and the diffusion dilution matrix into a narrow smoke cloud dilution matrix to obtain a pollution source intensity matrix with local characteristics, so as to obtain pollution source intensity data Q;
(A5) the concentration of the pollution diffusion C is obtained,
ux、uyand uzAre wind velocity vectors in x, y, z directions, respectively, H is the pollution source height, σx、σy、σzDiffusion parameters in the x, y and z directions respectively, and t is time;
(A6) and superposing the predicted concentration after the source strong diffusion on any grid to obtain the gridded atmospheric pollution predicted concentration.
2. The urban atmospheric pollution prediction method according to claim 1, further comprising the steps of:
(A7) kriging interpolation was performed on the predicted concentrations using Arcgis.
3. The method of predicting urban atmospheric pollution according to claim 1, wherein said geographic and meteorological data include topographic features, temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, rain, pollution source altitude, and dry and wet precipitation of atmospheric particulates.
4. The urban atmospheric pollution prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that the diffusion parameters are obtained by:
according to the atmospheric diffusion capability grade of the city, diffusion coefficients sigma in the directions of x, y and z are respectively obtained on a PassQuel diffusion curvex、σy、σz。
5. The method of predicting atmospheric pollution in cities of claim 4, wherein said level of atmospheric diffusivity is obtained from meteorological data including cloud cover and wind speed of said cities.
6. The method of predicting urban atmospheric pollution according to claim 1, wherein said pollution concentration data is atmospheric particulate concentration.
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Cited By (2)
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CN115545565A (en) * | 2022-11-24 | 2022-12-30 | 江苏省生态环境大数据有限公司 | Method and system for managing and controlling total amount of pollution discharged from park based on atmospheric environment quality |
CN117370772A (en) * | 2023-12-08 | 2024-01-09 | 北京英视睿达科技股份有限公司 | PM2.5 diffusion analysis method and system based on urban street topography classification |
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Cited By (3)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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CN115545565A (en) * | 2022-11-24 | 2022-12-30 | 江苏省生态环境大数据有限公司 | Method and system for managing and controlling total amount of pollution discharged from park based on atmospheric environment quality |
CN117370772A (en) * | 2023-12-08 | 2024-01-09 | 北京英视睿达科技股份有限公司 | PM2.5 diffusion analysis method and system based on urban street topography classification |
CN117370772B (en) * | 2023-12-08 | 2024-04-16 | 北京英视睿达科技股份有限公司 | PM2.5 diffusion analysis method and system based on urban street topography classification |
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