CN113222284A - Urban development prediction method and system based on sustainable target - Google Patents

Urban development prediction method and system based on sustainable target Download PDF

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CN113222284A
CN113222284A CN202110602612.8A CN202110602612A CN113222284A CN 113222284 A CN113222284 A CN 113222284A CN 202110602612 A CN202110602612 A CN 202110602612A CN 113222284 A CN113222284 A CN 113222284A
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解大
王西田
王晨磊
潘明杰
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Abstract

The invention provides a method and a system for predicting urban development based on a sustainable target, which relate to the technical field of urban development trend prediction and comprise the following steps: step S1: inputting population, economy and resource data of a certain city; step S2: establishing a mathematical model of the population-economy-resource system of the city; step S3: establishing a system dynamic model of the city considering intermediate variables; step S4: predicting the development trend of the city according to the requirement; step S5: and outputting a prediction result. The method can take urban sustainable development as a target, considers the interaction among three subsystems of population, economy and resources and the influence on the urban development, and can reflect the sustainability of the urban development more accurately and in detail according to the prediction result; meanwhile, the model constructed by the method can more delicately depict the internal operation mode of the system, so that the development trend of the city can be more accurately predicted.

Description

Urban development prediction method and system based on sustainable target
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of urban development trend prediction, in particular to an urban development prediction method and system based on a sustainable target.
Background
Future developments in cities will bring many opportunities and challenges to the country and world. The method has the advantages that the key influence factors of future development of the city are analyzed, the future development trend of the city is known, and the method has important significance for the country, the government and the people. Before forecasting the development trend of the city, the structure of the city system and key elements influencing the system development need to be determined. These key elements can be grouped into three categories, with the goal of urban sustainable development: population, economy and resources, which are interrelated, each is a subsystem, as shown in fig. 1.
The chinese patent publication No. CN101901462A discloses a dynamic analysis method for bearing capacity of an urban ecosystem, which comprises the following steps: the dynamic process and action relation of driving elements of the urban social economic system are simulated by using system dynamics; establishing a response relation between the driving element and the supply and demand of the biological resources through a construction submodule; performing ecological footprint accounting by adopting an ecological footprint comprehensive accounting algorithm; different ecological regulation and control scenes are designed to regulate and control and optimize the urban sustainable development trend by taking the feasibility and the sustainable development target as the standard.
In the aspect of a prediction method of urban development trend, the differential autoregressive moving average model ARIMA algorithm combines an autoregressive model, a moving average model and a differential algorithm, is a classic algorithm for medium-long term time sequence prediction, and has the characteristics of flexibility and accuracy. However, the ARIMA model is only based on historical data, so that erroneous estimation of the mutation amount may occur in long-term prediction.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a method and a system for predicting urban development based on a sustainable target.
According to the urban development prediction method and system based on the sustainable target, the scheme is as follows:
in a first aspect, a sustainable goal-based urban development prediction method is provided, the method comprising:
step S1: inputting population, economy and resource data of a certain city;
step S2: establishing a mathematical model of the population-economy-resource system of the city;
step S3: establishing a system dynamic model of the city considering intermediate variables;
step S4: predicting the development trend of the city according to the requirement;
step S5: and outputting a prediction result.
Preferably, in step S2, a mathematical model of the population system is established:
Figure BDA0003093119690000021
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003093119690000022
represents the general population of a city;
Figure BDA0003093119690000023
and
Figure BDA0003093119690000024
respectively representing the migration rate, the birth rate, the death rate and the labor ratio;
Figure BDA0003093119690000025
and
Figure BDA0003093119690000026
respectively representing immigration population, birth population, death population and labor force quantity;
Figure BDA0003093119690000027
represents the best of a cityThe number of large load-bearing population.
Preferably, in step S2, a mathematical model of the economic system is established, which includes a production function representing an economic-technical relationship between the input elements and the output;
wherein the input elements mainly comprise capital input, labor input and human capital input, and the production function is expressed as:
GDP(t)＝f(L,K,H,t)
wherein GDP represents total domestic production value, L, K and H represent labor, capital and human capital investment, respectively; t is time.
Preferably, the total domestic production value is calculated according to three industries, namely:
Figure BDA0003093119690000028
wherein, YiIs the domestic total production value, p, of the ith industryiRepresents the proportion of the ith industry;
Figure BDA0003093119690000029
in the formula, GDPincRepresents the GDP increase;
Figure BDA00030931196900000210
denotes the GDP growth rate, ptechThe contribution rate of the progress of the technology is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000211
indicates the labor growth rate, pkRepresents a capital growth rate; llaborAnd lkRepresenting the labor elasticity coefficient and the capital elasticity coefficient.
Preferably, in step S2, a mathematical model of the resource system is established:
Figure BDA0003093119690000031
Figure BDA0003093119690000032
Figure BDA0003093119690000033
Figure BDA0003093119690000034
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003093119690000035
which represents the total amount of resources,
Figure BDA0003093119690000036
which represents the amount of the initial resources,
Figure BDA0003093119690000037
which indicates the amount of resource regeneration,
Figure BDA0003093119690000038
represents the resource consumption (i water, SW, WW);
Figure BDA0003093119690000039
it means water for agricultural irrigation,
Figure BDA00030931196900000310
it represents the water consumption of the industry,
Figure BDA00030931196900000311
representing domestic water;
Figure BDA00030931196900000312
the amount of solid waste generated is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000313
the solid waste treatment capacity is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000314
representing the solid waste treatment rate;
Figure BDA00030931196900000315
the amount of the produced wastewater is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000316
the treatment amount of the waste water is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000317
the wastewater treatment rate is shown.
In a second aspect, a sustainable goal based urban development prediction system is provided, the system comprising:
model M1: inputting population, economy and resource data of a certain city;
model M2: establishing a mathematical model of the population-economy-resource system of the city;
model M3: establishing a system dynamic model of the city considering intermediate variables;
model M4: predicting the development trend of the city according to the requirement;
model M5: and outputting a prediction result.
Preferably, a mathematical model of the population system is established in the model M2:
Figure BDA00030931196900000318
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA00030931196900000319
represents the general population of a city;
Figure BDA00030931196900000320
and
Figure BDA00030931196900000321
respectively indicate the migration rate, the migration rate and the birthRate, mortality, and labor rate;
Figure BDA00030931196900000322
and
Figure BDA00030931196900000323
respectively representing immigration population, birth population, death population and labor force quantity;
Figure BDA00030931196900000324
representing the maximum bearer population for the city.
Preferably, a mathematical model of the economic system is established in the model M2, and the mathematical model comprises a production function, which represents the economic-technical relation between input elements and output;
wherein the input elements mainly comprise capital input, labor input and human capital input, and the production function is expressed as:
GDP(t)＝f(L,K,H,t)
wherein GDP represents total domestic production value, L, K and H represent labor, capital and human capital investment, respectively; t is time.
Preferably, the total domestic production value is calculated according to three industries, namely:
Figure BDA0003093119690000041
wherein, YiIs the domestic total production value, p, of the ith industryiRepresents the proportion of the ith industry;
Figure BDA0003093119690000042
in the formula, GDPincRepresents the GDP increase;
Figure BDA0003093119690000043
denotes the GDP growth rate, ptechThe contribution rate of the progress of the technology is shown,
Figure BDA0003093119690000044
indicates the labor growth rate, pkRepresents a capital growth rate; llaborAnd lkRepresenting the labor elasticity coefficient and the capital elasticity coefficient.
Preferably, the module M2 establishes a mathematical model of the resource system:
Figure BDA0003093119690000045
Figure BDA0003093119690000046
Figure BDA0003093119690000047
Figure BDA0003093119690000048
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003093119690000049
which represents the total amount of resources,
Figure BDA00030931196900000410
which represents the amount of the initial resources,
Figure BDA00030931196900000411
which indicates the amount of resource regeneration,
Figure BDA00030931196900000412
represents the resource consumption (i water, SW, WW);
Figure BDA00030931196900000413
it means water for agricultural irrigation,
Figure BDA00030931196900000414
it represents the water consumption of the industry,
Figure BDA00030931196900000415
representing domestic water;
Figure BDA00030931196900000416
the amount of solid waste generated is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000417
the solid waste treatment capacity is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000418
representing the solid waste treatment rate;
Figure BDA00030931196900000419
the amount of the produced wastewater is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000420
the treatment amount of the waste water is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000421
the wastewater treatment rate is shown.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. the method aims at urban sustainable development, considers the interaction among three subsystems of population, economy and resources and the influence on urban development, and can reflect the sustainability of urban development more accurately and in detail according to the prediction result;
2. the model can more carefully depict the internal operation mode of the system, thereby realizing more accurate prediction of the development trend of the city.
Drawings
Other features, objects and advantages of the invention will become more apparent upon reading of the detailed description of non-limiting embodiments with reference to the following drawings:
FIG. 1 is a diagram of the relationship between subsystems in a city in the present application;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of a population subsystem architecture in the present application;
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of an economic subsystem in the present application;
FIG. 4 is a diagram of a resource subsystem architecture in the present application;
FIG. 5 is a block diagram of a system dynamics model of the present application;
fig. 6 is a curve showing the variation of research and development expenses and total production value in 2017 in a certain region of china.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in detail with reference to specific examples. The following examples will assist those skilled in the art in further understanding the invention, but are not intended to limit the invention in any way. It should be noted that it would be obvious to those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. All falling within the scope of the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention provides a sustainable target-based urban development prediction method, which specifically comprises the following steps:
step S1: inputting population, economy and resource data of a certain city;
step S2: establishing a mathematical model of the population-economy-resource system of the city;
step S3: establishing a system dynamic model of the city considering intermediate variables;
step S4: predicting the development trend of the city according to the requirement;
step S5: and outputting a prediction result comprising population indexes (general population), economic indexes (GDP) and resource indexes (solid waste, waste water and waste gas), wherein the indexes describe the future sustainable development capability of the city.
The structures of three subsystems in a city, namely a population subsystem, an economic subsystem and a resource subsystem, are as follows.
(1) Population subsystem:
social progress and development cannot be kept away from humans, and urban sustainable development cannot be kept away from human activities and roles played by humans. Population size is a direct quantitative measure of the size of a population's subsystems. In addition to the population quantity, the population subsystem for researching a city also focuses on the quantity of labor force, which is a key index for embodying the population structure. The number, growth rate and structural changes of the population of the workforce in a city together determine the development status of the city. Population subsystems provide labor force guarantee for the development of cities, and the population quantity and structure (mainly the proportion of labor force to the total population) influence the economic development level and the ecological environment quality of the cities, and the influence is profound and complicated.
Referring to fig. 2, the population number of cities is related to natural and social factors. Natural factors mainly refer to birth rate and mortality. Social factors mainly refer to population migration rates and migration rates of cities. Meanwhile, as the resources of one city are limited, the population quantity is hooked with the population bearing capacity of the city. Focusing on the population subsystem of a city, in addition to focusing on population size, it is more important to study the structure of the population. If the population of a city is aging to a severe extent, the labor capacity of the city is definitely not high.
Meanwhile, the population subsystem interacts with the resource subsystem and the economic subsystem. On one hand, the population growth and the population quality improvement can promote the continuous progress of urban science and technology and productivity and further promote the development of education, economy and society; on the other hand, the growth of population consumes more resources and generates more wastes, which puts a great pressure on resource systems and environmental systems and hinders the healthy development of cities.
Therefore, in the development process of the city, the number and the structure of the population need to be well controlled, the pressure on resources and the environment is relieved while the healthy development is realized, and the city can be developed sustainably.
(2) An economic subsystem:
the economic subsystem is a power subsystem belonging to the whole city and is the core part of the whole city. The economy is the foundation, and in order for a city to achieve sustainable development, its economic subsystems must be healthy and active. Only if the economic subsystem is developed quickly and well and is kept stable for a long time, the resource utilization rate of the whole city is higher and higher, the ecological environment is better and better, and the society can be developed continuously for a long time.
Referring to fig. 3, the economic subsystem adopts a series of economic influence factors such as national production total value (GDP), investment and the like to characterize economic production operation activities. The effect and influence of the resource subsystem on the economic subsystem are simulated by introducing energy and material resources; the function of the population subsystem on the economic subsystem is characterized by introducing the number of urban population and the like. Meanwhile, the economic subsystem also affects the operation of the population subsystem and the resource subsystem.
The economic subsystem changes resources into products through an industrial chain between industries for circulation in the market, the products become waste to enter a material-energy system of a city after being consumed by human beings, and the waste is converted into new products after being recycled in the material-energy system of the city and then returns to the social major cycle again. The process realizes closed circulation of materials and flow of energy, information and the like, promotes the development of the urban material-energy system, and forms a positive pressure on the urban material-energy system. Meanwhile, the economic development can promote the improvement of the technical level of the whole society and give new feedback to the urban substance-energy system, and the two promote and influence each other.
Raw materials, labor population, energy, fund and the like are used as input of urban economic activities, and materials required by people are produced through urban production activities, so that convenience is provided for daily life of people. Meanwhile, in the process, a lot of byproducts and wastes are generated, and a lot of adverse effects are brought to urban environment. If the relationship between the waste and urban environment brought by urban economic activities cannot be well treated, the sustainable development of cities can be adversely affected. The World Health Organization (WHO) states that the sustainable development of cities should evolve the city economy towards richer efficiency, stability and innovation with minimal use of resources.
(3) The resource subsystem:
resources are a general term for all substances, energy and information that can be utilized by humans under certain conditions. Resources are all the material basis for sustainable development. The most significant resources for urban sustainable development are the resources of the city itself and the abdominal land, mainly mineral resources, biological resources, water resources and various energy resources which can be utilized by the city. The land bears the progress of city development and civilization and is also an important material resource for city construction.
The consumption and utilization of resources are directly related to the emission degree of pollutants, and the utilization and regeneration of the resources are inseparable from the state of an urban substance-energy system. In general, the total amount, consumption status and regeneration capacity of resources are not only closely related to economic subsystems and population subsystems, but also are key factors related to sustainable development of cities. The main relationship of the resource subsystem is described by analyzing and researching key elements in various links of the resource subsystem, the population subsystem and the economic subsystem, and the method is shown in figure 4. The resource subsystem is a huge system, and new material resources and energy resources can be obtained by processing original resources and energy resources. At the same time, the resource subsystem may also produce a portion of the waste, including solid waste, wastewater, and exhaust. After the wastes are input into a material-energy system of a city, the wastes are treated by resource recycling and the like, and then the wastes are returned to a resource subsystem by new material resources or energy, so that the cycle of 'resource-product-wastes-renewable resources' is formed.
The resource subsystem is a guarantee subsystem of the whole system and provides necessary material guarantee for the operation of the whole system, particularly the economic subsystem. Resources are an important foundation for urban development, and cities with insufficient necessary resources are difficult to develop. The unreasonable utilization of resources will lead to resource waste and exhaustion, which gradually hinders the further development of cities. From the resource perspective, the urban sustainable development is to reasonably utilize resources, and continuously improve the use efficiency and the comprehensive utilization level of the resources so as to achieve the long-term sustainable utilization of the resources.
Next, the present invention will be described in more detail.
In step S2, a mathematical model of the urban population-economy-resource system is established:
population system model:
the urbanization process is accelerated, and the proportion of urban population is increased gradually. The main population of a city includes a permanent population and a floating population, and a population system model of the city is characterized in the following formula:
Figure BDA0003093119690000081
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003093119690000082
represents the general population of a city;
Figure BDA0003093119690000083
and
Figure BDA0003093119690000084
respectively representing the migration rate, the birth rate, the death rate and the labor ratio;
Figure BDA0003093119690000085
and
Figure BDA0003093119690000086
respectively representing immigration population, birth population, death population and labor force quantity;
Figure BDA0003093119690000087
representing the maximum bearer population for the city.
An economic system model:
and (4) combining a new economic growth theory, and adopting a production function to depict an economic system model of the city. The production function reflects the economic and technical relation between input elements and output. The input elements include primarily capital, labor, and human capital inputs. The production function can be expressed as:
GDP(t)＝f(L,K,H,t)
wherein GDP represents total domestic production value, L, K and H represent labor, capital and human capital investment, respectively; t is time.
In China, the total value of national production is calculated according to three industries, namely
Figure BDA0003093119690000088
Wherein, YiIs the domestic total production value, p, of the ith industryiIndicating the proportion of the ith industry.
Figure BDA0003093119690000089
In the formula, GDPincRepresents the GDP increase;
Figure BDA00030931196900000810
denotes the GDP growth rate, ptechThe contribution rate of the progress of the technology is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000811
indicates the labor growth rate, pkRepresents a capital growth rate; llaborAnd lkRepresenting the labor elasticity coefficient and the capital elasticity coefficient.
Resource system model:
the resource subsystem converts material production data (such as water resources, land resources, mineral resources and the like) and energy resources into GDP in an economic system, and at the same time, some pollution (such as solid waste, waste water, waste gas and the like) is generated. The resource subsystem models are described in the following equations, respectively:
Figure BDA0003093119690000091
Figure BDA0003093119690000092
Figure BDA0003093119690000093
Figure BDA0003093119690000094
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003093119690000095
which represents the total amount of resources,
Figure BDA0003093119690000096
which represents the amount of the initial resources,
Figure BDA0003093119690000097
which indicates the amount of resource regeneration,
Figure BDA0003093119690000098
represents the resource consumption (i water, SW, WW);
Figure BDA0003093119690000099
it means water for agricultural irrigation,
Figure BDA00030931196900000910
it represents the water consumption of the industry,
Figure BDA00030931196900000911
representing domestic water;
Figure BDA00030931196900000912
the amount of solid waste generated is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000913
the solid waste treatment capacity is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000914
representing the solid waste treatment rate;
Figure BDA00030931196900000915
indicating waste water productionThe amount of the raw materials is increased,
Figure BDA00030931196900000916
the treatment amount of the waste water is shown,
Figure BDA00030931196900000917
the wastewater treatment rate is shown.
In step S3, a system dynamics model of the city considering intermediate variables is established:
aiming at the current running situation of a sustainable development urban system, a dynamic model structure diagram of the urban system shown in figure 5 is constructed from a population-economy-resource system and the existing urban material-energy system model from the urban running angle. The operation of the subject variables and intermediate variables in the system is explained in detail below.
Main variables:
the subject variables include the population of the city, total production, solid waste output, sewage production, and waste gas production. The general population of the city is directly determined by immigration, birth and death rate, the population and labor participation rate jointly determine the supply capacity of labor force, and meanwhile, the population is also directly related to energy consumption and solid waste output; the total production value reflects the overall development level of the system and is determined by labor force, per capita production value and capital accumulation, and on the other hand, the total production value is related to the contents of population bearing capacity, labor force cost, energy demand, discharge amount of various wastes and the like and is the core of an economic subsystem; the solid waste output is determined by the total production value, the general population and the like together, and the material energy source related to the material-energy system can be fed back to the urban production system; the sewage and waste gas production amount is an environmental problem which needs to be supported and solved by the environment-friendly fund, and the reasonable treatment of the sewage can generate new water resources to be supplied to social production and living.
It is worth noting that there are things in the model that can be refined, such as the distribution of production totals in different domains, the impact of economic growth on the rate of human mouth change, etc. And by constructing intermediate variables, detail simulation of system change is realized.
Intermediate variables:
the intermediate variable is set to be the technology level, and the technology level reflects the variation conditions of variables such as per capita yield, energy production cost, energy demand and solid waste treatment capacity along with the development of economy.
The trend of the annual total production value, research and development expenditure in certain area of China is shown in FIG. 6, therefore, the relationship between the annual total production value and research and development expenditure can be expressed as:
Figure BDA0003093119690000101
wherein S represents the value of a technology level variable,
Figure BDA0003093119690000102
representing an nth degree polynomial for the variable (m), and likewise, the average yield for humans in the system model can be improved
Figure BDA0003093119690000103
Price per unit energy
Figure BDA0003093119690000104
Energy obtained by solid waste incineration
Figure BDA0003093119690000105
Energy obtained by solid waste landfill
Figure BDA0003093119690000106
Total energy demand
Figure BDA0003093119690000107
And mortality
Figure BDA0003093119690000108
The formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003093119690000109
wherein k is(m)、a(m)、b(m)、c(m)And for the model parameters, obtaining a calculation formula of the influence of the intermediate variable on other parameters through historical data fitting. By matching with the subsystem model, the change rule of each variable of the sustainable development city system in the current operation mode can be obtained.
The embodiment of the invention provides a method for predicting urban development based on a sustainable target, which aims at the urban sustainable development, considers the interaction among three subsystems of population, economy and resources and the influence on the urban development, and can reflect the sustainability of the urban development more accurately and in detail according to the prediction result;
the model established in the invention can more carefully depict the internal operation mode of the system, thereby realizing more accurate prediction of the development trend of the city.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that, in addition to implementing the system and its various devices, modules, units provided by the present invention as pure computer readable program code, the system and its various devices, modules, units provided by the present invention can be fully implemented by logically programming method steps in the form of logic gates, switches, application specific integrated circuits, programmable logic controllers, embedded microcontrollers and the like. Therefore, the system and various devices, modules and units thereof provided by the invention can be regarded as a hardware component, and the devices, modules and units included in the system for realizing various functions can also be regarded as structures in the hardware component; means, modules, units for performing the various functions may also be regarded as structures within both software modules and hardware components for performing the method.
The foregoing description of specific embodiments of the present invention has been presented. It is to be understood that the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments described above, and that various changes or modifications may be made by one skilled in the art within the scope of the appended claims without departing from the spirit of the invention. The embodiments and features of the embodiments of the present application may be combined with each other arbitrarily without conflict.

Claims (10)

1. A sustainable objective-based urban development prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1: inputting population, economy and resource data of a certain city;
step S2: establishing a mathematical model of the population-economy-resource system of the city;
step S3: establishing a system dynamic model of the city considering intermediate variables;
step S4: predicting the development trend of the city according to the requirement;
step S5: and outputting a prediction result.
2. A sustainable objective based urban development prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the step S2 is implemented by establishing a mathematical model of a population system:
Figure FDA0003093119680000011
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003093119680000012
represents the general population of a city;
Figure FDA0003093119680000013
and
Figure FDA0003093119680000014
respectively representing the migration rate, the birth rate, the death rate and the labor ratio;
Figure FDA0003093119680000015
and
Figure FDA0003093119680000016
respectively representing immigration population, birth population, death population and labor force quantity;
Figure FDA0003093119680000017
representing the maximum bearer population for the city.
3. A sustainable objective based urban development prediction method according to claim 1, wherein step S2 is implemented by establishing a mathematical model of an economic system, comprising a production function, representing an economic-technical relationship between input elements and output;
wherein the input elements mainly comprise capital input, labor input and human capital input, and the production function is expressed as:
GDP(t)＝f(L,K,H,t)
wherein GDP represents total domestic production value, L, K and H represent labor, capital and human capital investment, respectively; t is time.
4. A sustainable objective based urban development prediction method according to claim 3, wherein the total domestic production value is calculated by three industries:
Figure FDA0003093119680000021
wherein, YiIs the domestic total production value, p, of the ith industryiRepresents the proportion of the ith industry;
Figure FDA0003093119680000022
in the formula, GDPincRepresents the GDP increase;
Figure FDA0003093119680000023
denotes the GDP growth rate, ptechThe contribution rate of the progress of the technology is shown,
Figure FDA0003093119680000024
indicates the labor growth rate, pkRepresents a capital growth rate; llaborAnd lkRepresenting the labor elasticity coefficient and the capital elasticity coefficient.
5. A sustainable objective based urban development prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the step S2 is implemented by establishing a mathematical model of the resource system:
Figure FDA0003093119680000025
Figure FDA0003093119680000026
Figure FDA0003093119680000027
Figure FDA0003093119680000028
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003093119680000029
which represents the total amount of resources,
Figure FDA00030931196800000210
which represents the amount of the initial resources,
Figure FDA00030931196800000211
which indicates the amount of resource regeneration,
Figure FDA00030931196800000212
represents the resource consumption (i water, SW, WW);
Figure FDA00030931196800000213
it means water for agricultural irrigation,
Figure FDA00030931196800000214
it represents the water consumption of the industry,
Figure FDA00030931196800000215
representing domestic water;
Figure FDA00030931196800000216
the amount of solid waste generated is shown,
Figure FDA00030931196800000217
the solid waste treatment capacity is shown,
Figure FDA00030931196800000218
representing the solid waste treatment rate;
Figure FDA00030931196800000219
the amount of the produced wastewater is shown,
Figure FDA00030931196800000220
the treatment amount of the waste water is shown,
Figure FDA00030931196800000221
the wastewater treatment rate is shown.
6. A sustainable objective-based urban development prediction system, comprising:
model M1: inputting population, economy and resource data of a certain city;
model M2: establishing a mathematical model of the population-economy-resource system of the city;
model M3: establishing a system dynamic model of the city considering intermediate variables;
model M4: predicting the development trend of the city according to the requirement;
model M5: and outputting a prediction result.
7. A sustainable objective based urban development prediction system according to claim 6, wherein the model M2 is a mathematical model of a population system:
Figure FDA0003093119680000031
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003093119680000032
represents the general population of a city;
Figure FDA0003093119680000033
and
Figure FDA0003093119680000034
respectively representing the migration rate, the birth rate, the death rate and the labor ratio;
Figure FDA0003093119680000035
and
Figure FDA0003093119680000036
respectively representing immigration population, birth population, death population and labor force quantity;
Figure FDA0003093119680000037
representing the maximum bearer population for the city.
8. A sustainable objective based urban development prediction system according to claim 6, wherein the model M2 is used to build a mathematical model of an economic system, comprising a production function representing an economic-technical relationship between input elements and output;
wherein the input elements mainly comprise capital input, labor input and human capital input, and the production function is expressed as:
GDP(t)＝f(L,K,H,t)
wherein GDP represents total domestic production value, L, K and H represent labor, capital and human capital investment, respectively; t is time.
9. A sustainable objective based urban development prediction system according to claim 8, wherein the total domestic production value is calculated by three industries:
Figure FDA0003093119680000038
wherein, YiIs the domestic total production value, p, of the ith industryiRepresents the proportion of the ith industry;
Figure FDA0003093119680000039
in the formula, GDPincRepresents the GDP increase;
Figure FDA00030931196800000310
denotes the GDP growth rate, ptechThe contribution rate of the progress of the technology is shown,
Figure FDA00030931196800000311
indicates the labor growth rate, pkRepresents a capital growth rate; llaborAnd lkRepresenting the labor elasticity coefficient and the capital elasticity coefficient.
10. A sustainable objective based urban development prediction system according to claim 6, wherein the module M2 builds a mathematical model of the resource system:
Figure FDA00030931196800000312
Figure FDA0003093119680000041
Figure FDA0003093119680000042
Figure FDA0003093119680000043
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003093119680000044
which represents the total amount of resources,
Figure FDA0003093119680000045
which represents the amount of the initial resources,
Figure FDA0003093119680000046
which indicates the amount of resource regeneration,
Figure FDA0003093119680000047
represents the resource consumption (i water, SW, WW);
Figure FDA0003093119680000048
it means water for agricultural irrigation,
Figure FDA0003093119680000049
it represents the water consumption of the industry,
Figure FDA00030931196800000410
representing domestic water;
Figure FDA00030931196800000411
the amount of solid waste generated is shown,
Figure FDA00030931196800000412
the solid waste treatment capacity is shown,
Figure FDA00030931196800000413
representing the solid waste treatment rate;
Figure FDA00030931196800000414
the amount of the produced wastewater is shown,
Figure FDA00030931196800000415
the treatment amount of the waste water is shown,
Figure FDA00030931196800000416
the wastewater treatment rate is shown.
CN202110602612.8A 2021-05-31 2021-05-31 Urban development prediction method and system based on sustainable target Pending CN113222284A (en)

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Application publication date: 20210806