CN113177748B - Gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage evaluation method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for evaluating earthquake damage of a gas transmission pipeline, which comprises the following steps: collecting basic data of the gas transmission pipeline, dividing the gas transmission pipeline into a plurality of evaluation units and formulating evaluation indexes; determining the value of each evaluation index in each evaluation unit; quantifying the values of all qualitative indexes; and all the evaluation indexes are summarized into different risk factors; respectively determining the weights of the quantitative indexes and the qualitative indexes in each evaluation unit; establishing a criterion layer to obtain a single-index undetermined measurement matrix of each risk factor; establishing a target layer to obtain a multi-index comprehensive measure evaluation vector; the risk level of each evaluation unit is identified. The method is used for solving the problems that in the prior art, the evaluation mode of the gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage risk evaluation is not comprehensive and subjectivity is too strong, and the purposes of improving the accuracy of the gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage risk evaluation and providing a more scientific and effective evaluation method are achieved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage evaluation, in particular to a gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage evaluation method.
Background
Over the years, the cases of safety function loss of a gas supply system due to earthquake damage are as follows: if earthquake happens to a certain place in the United states in a certain year, the gas system is caused to generate 15 multiplied by 104Air leakage can cause several fires; when a large earthquake occurs in a certain area in Japan in a certain year, the gas pipeline is broken to cause gas leakage, 459 parts are totally ignited, the burning area reaches tens of thousands of square meters, and a large amount of casualties are caused. The damage of the gas pipeline in a certain city is very serious when a super earthquake happens in a certain place in the west of China in a certain year, the underground pipeline is broken by more than 10 places, the underground pipeline to be rebuilt reaches 50 kilometers, and the economic loss of the gas transmission and distribution system in the whole city is about 6700 ten thousand yuan. Therefore, the safety accidents of the gas transmission pipeline caused by the earthquake can bring serious damage to the life and property safety of people. Under the condition, the earthquake damage risk of the gas transmission pipeline is scientifically and accurately evaluated, and a scientific evaluation method is necessary to be provided for a decision-making layer and management personnel of a gas enterprise.
In the prior art, the application of risk evaluation in the field of gas pipeline earthquake disasters also belongs to a new field, most evaluation methods belong to qualitative analysis, and the expected purpose is difficult to realize well. Although a few quantitative evaluation methods also appear in the prior art, the methods rarely discuss the uncertainty problem in the risk of the gas transmission pipeline, the evaluation factors are incomplete, the method for acquiring the weight of each evaluation index is more subjective, and the accuracy and the objectivity of the evaluation result are seriously influenced.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage evaluation method, which aims to solve the problems that in the prior art, the evaluation mode of gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage risk evaluation is not comprehensive and subjectivity is too strong, and the purposes of improving the accuracy of gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage risk evaluation and providing a more scientific and effective evaluation method are achieved.
The invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a method for evaluating earthquake damage of a gas transmission pipeline comprises the following steps:
step S1, collecting basic data of the gas transmission pipeline, dividing the gas transmission pipeline into a plurality of evaluation units based on the basic data, and formulating evaluation indexes;
s2, determining the value of each evaluation index in each evaluation unit, and dividing the evaluation index into a quantitative index and a qualitative index; quantifying the values of all qualitative indexes; and all the evaluation indexes are summarized into different risk factors;
step S3, determining the weight of the quantitative index and the qualitative index in each evaluation unit respectively;
step S4, establishing a criterion layer to obtain a single index undetermined measurement matrix of each risk factor;
step S5, establishing a target layer based on the weight obtained in the step S3 and the single index uncertain measure matrix of each risk factor obtained in the step S4 to obtain a multi-index comprehensive measure evaluation vector;
step S6 identifies the risk level of each evaluation unit.
Aiming at the problem that the evaluation mode of the gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage risk evaluation in the prior art is not comprehensive, the invention firstly provides a gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage evaluation method, the method firstly collects basic data of a gas transmission pipeline to be evaluated, the pipeline is divided into a plurality of evaluation units through the basic data, the specific division method can be classified according to the characteristics of the pipeline and the characteristics along the pipeline, and technicians in the field can perform adaptive division according to specific application scenes; and formulating an evaluation index for evaluating the earthquake damage risk of the gas transmission pipeline. And then, carrying out value taking on the corresponding evaluation index in each evaluation unit. The evaluation indexes are divided into quantitative indexes capable of quantitative evaluation and qualitative indexes capable of only qualitative evaluation; for quantitative indexes, values can be directly taken; however, as for qualitative indexes in the risk evaluation of the gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage, the qualitative indexes are mostly selected to be ignored in the prior art, so that the evaluation indexes are relatively unilateral. The method quantifies the value of the qualitative index, takes the qualitative index as an unavailable important content in the evaluation index to participate in subsequent evaluation content, and ensures the integrity and comprehensiveness of the evaluation index from the source. The method comprises the steps of setting a plurality of risk factors, wherein each risk factor comprises a plurality of evaluation indexes, and respectively summarizing the evaluation indexes into different risk factors; of course, each risk factor may include both quantitative and qualitative indicators. Then, the weight of each quantitative index and each qualitative index is independently determined for each evaluation unit. Finally, introducing an uncertain measurement theory, and establishing a criterion layer to obtain a single-index uncertain measurement matrix of each risk factor; establishing a target layer based on the obtained weight of each evaluation index and the single-index uncertain measure matrix of each risk factor to obtain a multi-index comprehensive measure evaluation vector; and finally identifying the risk level of each evaluation unit.
The principles of the uncertain measure theory introduced in this application are as follows:
when the target layer is evaluated, all the evaluation factors of the criterion layer are the set of the composition factor space and are recorded asZ. Is provided withz 1，z 2，...z n Is located within the spatial setnIndividual factor, then factor spaceZExpressed as:
Z={z 1，z2，...zn}（1-1）
if any evaluation factorz i (i=1,2,...,n) ComprisesmAn indexf 1，f 2，...f mThen, the factor is evaluatedz i Index space ofFIs formed byf 1，f 2，...f mThis is achieved bymA set of individual indicators, i.e.F={f 1，f 2，...f m}. If it is usedz ij Is shown asiA factorz i AboutFirst, thejAn indexf j (j=1,2,...,m) Is measured, thenz i Expressed as:
Z i={z i1，zi2，...zim}（1-2）
if at allz ij Is provided withpAn evaluation gradeC 1，C 2，... C p Then evaluate the spaceCExpressed as:
C={C 1，C2，... ，C p }（1-3）
wherein, the evaluation spaceCThe following two conditions are satisfied:
equations (1-4) indicate that all the evaluation levels together constitute an evaluation space. Equations (1-5) indicate the independence of any two ratings from one another.
For evaluation spaceCTo (1)kAn evaluation gradeC k If present, if presentC k ＞C k+1(k=1,2...,p-1) (orC k ＜C k+1) I.e. satisfyC 1＞C 2＞…＞C p (orC 1＜C 2＜…＜C p ) Said Chinese character is C 1 , C 2 ,..., C p Is the ordered partition class of the evaluation space C.
Will take a valuez ij Belonging to the evaluation gradeC k Degree of (D) is recorded asμ ijk =μ(μ ij ∈C k ) And is andμthe following conditions are satisfied:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,i=1,2,...,n，j=1,2,...,m，k=1,2,...,pthe term "formula (1-6)" indicates the interval [0,1]A certain number ofμ ij Belonging to the evaluation gradeC k The degree of (2) is called "normalization" in terms of equations (1-7) and "additivity" in terms of equations (1-8). Will satisfy the formulas (1-6), (1-7) and (1-8) at the same timeμReferred to as uncertain measures, short measures.
Further, the basic data comprise pipe diameter, wall thickness, pipes, service life, population density, seismic fortification intensity and station yard distribution. The basic data includes the above parameters, but is not meant to be limited to the above parameters. Through the selection of the basic data, the gas transmission pipelines can be efficiently classified, and then the evaluation unit can be accurately divided.
Further, the evaluation index includes: seismic magnitude-frequency coefficient, seismic peak acceleration along the line, fault, seismic geological disaster, outer diameter, wall thickness, operating pressure, burial depth, pipe, service life, pipeline joint, seismic fortification intensity, leakage degree, building density, population density, H2S concentration, carbon emission and natural reserve;
the risk factors include:
the earthquake risk factors comprise the following evaluation indexes: seismic level-frequency coefficient, seismic peak acceleration along the line, fault, seismic geological disaster;
the risk factors of the vulnerability of the pipeline comprise the following evaluation indexes: external diameter, wall thickness, operating pressure, buried depth, pipe, service life, pipeline joint and seismic fortification intensity;
the disaster damage risk factors comprise the following evaluation indexes: degree of leakage, building density, population density, H2S concentration, carbon emission, natural reserve.
The scheme has the advantages of comprehensiveness and systematization in the setting of the evaluation indexes, overcomes the defects of one-sided evaluation indexes and insufficient consideration factors in the prior art, and improves the accuracy of the final evaluation result. And each evaluation index is respectively and correspondingly summarized into one of earthquake risk factors, pipeline vulnerability risk factors and disaster loss risk factors, and the risk factors are divided into three large directions to be considered, so that the calculation amount is favorably reduced, and the modeling efficiency is improved. In addition, disaster loss risk factors are brought into evaluation in the scheme, namely, the failure result is taken as one of main factors of gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage risk evaluation, the defect that the failure result is ignored in the traditional evaluation mode is overcome, and the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage risk evaluation are obviously improved.
Further, the method for determining the weight of the quantitative index comprises the following steps:
s311, designing orthogonal tests of a plurality of quantitative indexes under different factor levels;
s312, carrying out numerical simulation on the buried pipeline under the action of the earthquake by adopting a time course analysis method;
step S313, solving the grey correlation degree of each quantitative index relative to the normal form equivalent stress based on the numerical simulation result; and carrying out normalization processing on the grey correlation degree of each quantitative index to obtain the weight of each quantitative index.
The scheme adopts an orthogonal test to reduce the calculation condition; meanwhile, grey correlation calculation of each quantitative index with respect to normal equivalent stress (von Mises stress) is introduced, the problem that in the prior art, the weight of the quantitative index is assigned by depending on experts and the subjectivity is too strong is solved, the objectivity and the accuracy of the weight value of the quantitative index can be obviously improved, and the interference of human factors is reduced. The purpose of introducing grey correlation degree to solve and convert is to convert the numerically simulated pipeline vibration force response analysis result into a quantitative weight value of an index.
Further, the method for carrying out numerical simulation on the buried pipeline under the action of the earthquake comprises the following steps:
step S3121, inputting three-dimensional seismic motion as seismic wave, and carrying out amplitude modulation processing on the seismic wave according to the following formula:
in the formula:A'(t)for adjusted seismic wave time-course curve at any timetAn acceleration value of;
A' max the adjusted seismic wave time-course curve is the peak value acceleration value;
A(t)at any time of the in-situ seismic wave time-course curvetAn acceleration value of;
A max the peak value acceleration value is the in-situ seismic wave time-course curve;
s3122, establishing a numerical model based on finite element calculation software;
and S3123, performing pipeline seismic dynamic response calculation in finite element calculation software based on the seismic waves and the established numerical model to obtain a normal form equivalent stress statistical result of the pipeline under the action of different intensity earthquakes.
According to the scheme, the pipeline seismic dynamic response analysis is introduced through a numerical simulation means, and then quantitative optimization is carried out on quantitative index weight. Meanwhile, in order to convert the numerically-simulated pipeline ground vibration force response analysis result into the weighted value of the index, the gray correlation degree is required to be used for solving and converting.
In addition, the inventor finds that the original record of the seismic wave is a local result recorded by different seismic stations, so that the original time-course record cannot meet the requirements of seismic motion input with different intensities required by numerical simulation in the application, and the invention performs amplitude modulation processing on the seismic wave before the numerical simulation so as to overcome the problem.
Further, step S313 includes:
step S3131, determining a reference sequenceX 0 Comparison of sequencesX i ；
WhereinX 0 ={x 0 (t)}，X i ={x i (t)}，t=1,2,...,n， i=1,2,...,m(ii) a Wherein n is the total test times, t is the test times number,im is the number of the comparison sequence, and m is the total number of the comparison sequence;
step S3132, calculating a relative rate of change of the reference sequence by the following formulak 0(t) Comparing the relative rates of change of the sequencesk i (t)：
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,y 0(t+1) represents the difference between the t +1 th evaluation index and the t-th evaluation index in the reference sequence;y i (t+1) represents the difference between the t +1 th and the t-th evaluation index values in the comparison sequence;
step S3133, calculating a gray correlation coefficient between each reference sequence and the comparison sequence
：
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,k i (t) Relative rates of change for the comparison sequences;k 0(t) Is a reference sequenceRelative rate of change of;ithe sequence number of the comparison sequence; when in usey i (t+1) Andy 0(t+1) when the signs are the same or all 0, the molecules take positive signs, otherwise, the molecules take negative signs;
step S3134, calculating gray correlation degree of each quantitative index with respect to the normal form equivalent stressγ i ：
Step S3135, normalizing the gray correlation of each quantitative index according to the following formula to obtain the weight of each quantitative indexw i
The scheme refines the weight specific calculation process of the quantitative index: first, a reference sequence and a comparison sequence are determined, the reference sequence is setX 0 ={x 0 (t) }, comparison of sequencesX i ={x i (t) }; and then calculating the relative change rate, wherein the relative change rate is divided into the relative change rate of the reference sequence and the relative change rate of the comparison sequence in the scheme. Then calculating gray correlation coefficients between each reference sequence and the comparison sequence based on the calculation result of the relative change rate, and solving the gray correlation degree of each quantitative index about the normal form equivalent stress based on the gray correlation coefficients
(ii) a In the formulaγ i Denotes a reference sequenceX 0 And comparing the sequencesX i The grey correlation degree between the two;γ i has uniqueness with the value range of [ -1, 1 [)]The size of which can characterize each influencing factor (comparative sequence)) The importance of the correlation with a reference index (reference sequence). Finally, the grey correlation degree value range is [ -1, 1 [ -1 [ ]]And weight value range [0,1 ]]So that a formula for converting the gray correlation degree of S3135 and the weight is proposed, i.e., the gray correlation degree of each quantitative index is normalized to obtain the weight of each quantitative index.
Further, the method for determining the weight of the qualitative index comprises the following steps:
s321, establishing a hierarchical structure model;
step S322, establishing a comparison matrixA；
Step S323, calculating an importance ranking index;
step S324, establishing a judgment matrixB；
Step S325, obtaining a judgment matrixBIs transmitted to the matrixC；
Step S326, obtaining a transfer matrixCIs optimized to the transfer matrixD；
Step S327, calculating a pseudo-optimal consistent matrixB'；
Step S328, calculating a pseudo-optimal consistent matrixB'Feature vector ofW i ；
Step S329, obtaining the weight of qualitative indexW' i ：
The scheme refines the specific calculation process of the weight of the qualitative index:
firstly, converting a research object into a structural model with hierarchy and conditioning, and then establishing a comparison matrix; the actual data of the comparison matrix comes from expert experience, so that the expert questionnaire design is firstly carried out before the comparison matrix is established, then the comparison matrix is established, and the subsequent steps are sequentially carried out. The scheme overcomes the defect that the weight of the qualitative index is difficult to quantify in the prior art, and has obvious progress compared with the prior art.
Further, the single-index undetermined measure matrix is expressed as:
i=1,2；j=1,2,...,m'；k=1,2,...,p；；
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,μ ijk a measure function corresponding to the kth evaluation level of the jth index of the ith factor;m'is the total number of indexes;pthe total number of evaluation grades is;kthe k-th evaluation scale.
In the scheme, the factor space is considered Z={z 1，z2，...znEach factor in } z i={z i1，z i2，...z im Each index of } ofz ijAccording to the evaluation spaceC={C 1，C2，... ，C p Constructively constructing each index by using linear uncertain measure functionz ijThe corresponding measure function:
Further, the method for calculating the multi-index comprehensive measure evaluation vector comprises the following steps: calculating measure vectors of risk factors of the criterion layer; and calculating a multi-index uncertain measure evaluation matrix based on each measure vector, and establishing a multi-index comprehensive measure evaluation vector.
Further, the identification method of the risk level k comprises the following steps:
in the formula, lambda is confidence coefficient;xto evaluate the unit number；k 0To an evaluation unitxBelong to the firstk 0An evaluation classC k0；μ xl To an evaluation unitxCorrespond toC k0An undetermined measure of grade;pthe total number of evaluation grades.
The risk grade of appraising the space in this application is orderly, and gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage risk level increases thereupon along with the grade rising. According to the concept of uncertain measures, each risk level is an ordered segmentation class of the evaluation space. The risk identification by utilizing the maximum membership criterion for the ordered space is inaccurate, so the scheme introduces a confidence criterion to determine the risk level, and finally obtains the identification method of the risk level k.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:
1. the evaluation method for the earthquake damage of the gas transmission pipeline, disclosed by the invention, has the advantages that the value of the qualitative index is subjected to quantitative treatment, the qualitative index is taken as an indispensable important content in the evaluation index to participate in subsequent evaluation content, and the integrity and comprehensiveness of the evaluation index are ensured.
2. The gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage evaluation method has the advantages of comprehensiveness and systematization in the setting of the evaluation indexes, overcomes the defects of one-sided evaluation indexes and insufficient consideration factors in the prior art, and improves the accuracy of the final evaluation result. Each evaluation index is respectively and correspondingly summarized into one of earthquake risk factors, pipeline vulnerability risk factors and disaster loss risk factors, and the risk factors are divided into three large directions to be considered, so that the calculation amount is reduced, and the modeling efficiency is improved; and disaster damage risk factors are brought into evaluation, namely, the failure consequence is taken as one of main factors of gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage risk evaluation, the defect that the failure consequence is ignored in the traditional evaluation mode is overcome, and the comprehensiveness and the accuracy of the gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage risk evaluation are obviously improved.
3. The invention relates to a gas transmission pipeline seismic damage evaluation method, which introduces pipeline seismic power response analysis through a numerical simulation means, and further carries out quantitative optimization on quantitative index weight; orthogonal tests are also adopted to reduce the calculation conditions; meanwhile, grey correlation calculation of each quantitative index with respect to normal equivalent stress is introduced, the problem that in the prior art, the weight of the quantitative index is obtained by means of assignment of experts and subjectivity is too strong is solved, objectivity and accuracy of quantitative index weight value obtaining can be remarkably improved, and interference of human factors is reduced.
4. The gas transmission pipeline earthquake damage evaluation method overcomes the defects that detailed data related to the earthquake damage of the gas transmission pipeline is insufficient and objective quantification of the weight of a qualitative index is difficult in the prior art, and has obvious progress compared with the prior art.
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The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the embodiments of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiment(s) of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the principles of the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a schematic view of a risk assessment process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a hierarchical model in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a seismic acceleration time history in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to examples and accompanying drawings, and the exemplary embodiments and descriptions thereof are only used for explaining the present invention and are not meant to limit the present invention.
Example 1:
a method for evaluating the earthquake damage of a gas transmission pipeline is shown in figure 1 and comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting basic data of the gas transmission pipeline, dividing the gas transmission pipeline into a plurality of evaluation units based on the basic data, and formulating evaluation indexes;
the basic data comprise pipe diameter, wall thickness, pipes, service life, population density, seismic fortification intensity and station distribution;
the evaluation meansThe label includes: seismic magnitude-frequency coefficient, seismic peak acceleration along the line, fault, seismic geological disaster, outer diameter, wall thickness, operating pressure, burial depth, pipe, service life, pipeline joint, seismic fortification intensity, leakage degree, building density, population density, H2S concentration, carbon emission and natural reserve;
s2, determining the value of each evaluation index in each evaluation unit, and dividing the evaluation index into a quantitative index and a qualitative index; quantifying the values of all qualitative indexes; and all the evaluation indexes are summarized into different risk factors;
s3, determining the weight of the quantitative index and the qualitative index in each evaluation unit respectively;
s4, establishing a criterion layer to obtain a single-index undetermined measurement matrix of each risk factor;
s5, establishing a target layer based on the weight obtained in the step S3 and the single-index uncertain measurement matrix of each risk factor obtained in the step S4 to obtain a multi-index comprehensive measurement evaluation vector;
and S6, identifying the risk level of each evaluation unit.
In this embodiment, the risk factors are classified into three categories:
the earthquake risk factors comprise the following evaluation indexes: seismic level-frequency coefficient, seismic peak acceleration along the line, fault, seismic geological disaster;
the risk factors of the vulnerability of the pipeline comprise the following evaluation indexes: external diameter, wall thickness, operating pressure, buried depth, pipe, service life, pipeline joint and seismic fortification intensity;
the disaster damage risk factors comprise the following evaluation indexes: degree of leakage, building density, population density, H2S concentration, carbon emission, natural reserve.
Example 2:
a method for evaluating the earthquake damage of a gas transmission pipeline takes a gas source pipeline part in a long gas transmission pipeline in a Sichuan basin as an example: the length of the gas transmission pipeline reaches more than 300 km, more than 50 percent of the pipeline is positioned in a mountain area with the seismic fortification intensity of 6 intensity or more, the topographic and geological conditions are complex, and the fracture structure is active. The gas source pipeline is used for natural gas supply tasks in the aspects of life, industry, traffic and the like of more than 200 million people in a certain city, so that the safe operation management of the gas source pipeline in the earthquake frequency region is very important. In this embodiment, a pipeline between two gas distribution stations is selected for evaluation application, and the specific evaluation process is as follows:
firstly, the length of the gas transmission pipeline is 29.179km, and the designed daily gas supply quantity is 15.0 multiplied by 104m3. According to the basic data (pipe diameter, wall thickness, pipe material, service life, population density, seismic fortification intensity, station yard and the like) of the line-along characteristics of the section of pipeline, the section of pipeline is divided into 7 evaluation units corresponding to 7 pipe sections.
And secondly, determining the value of each evaluation index in each evaluation unit according to the pipeline basic data collected in the earlier stage and the investigation condition. Taking the evaluation unit pipe segment 1 (designated as evaluation unit 1) as an example, the details of the basic data are shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 evaluation Unit 1 evaluation index basic data description
The qualitative index was quantified according to the rating scale quantification method and formed into a rating scale as shown in table 2, and table 3 is a rating scale description of the qualitative index in table 2.
TABLE 2 grading Standard of evaluation index of earthquake damage Risk of gas pipeline
TABLE 3 qualitative index rating Scale Specification
According to the classification criteria shown in tables 2 and 3, the specific value results of the evaluation indexes in table 1 are determined, as shown in table 4:
table 4 summary of evaluation unit 1 index value results
Thirdly, determining the weight of the evaluation index
1. Determining the weight of the quantitative index:
1) design of orthogonal experiments
In the present example, a 5-factor 5-level combination scheme was designed by an orthogonal test method, the level settings of each quantitative index are shown in table 5,L 25(55) The orthogonal test design table is shown in table 6.
TABLE 5 horizontal setting of the quantitative indices
TABLE 6 orthogonal experimental design sheet
2) Numerical simulation of buried pipeline under earthquake action
The time course analysis method is a method for solving the structural dynamic equation by integrating according to the elastic (or inelastic) performance of materials and components. The vibration equation of the multi-degree-of-freedom system under the action of ground motion is that the equation can solve the acceleration, displacement and speed of the structural system at each moment, and further calculate the internal force of the structure. In this equation:x-multi-degree-of-freedom system horizontal displacement;x'-multi-degree of freedom system speed;x''-multi-degree of freedom system acceleration;x g ''-horizontal acceleration of ground motion of a multi-degree-of-freedom system;M-a quality matrix;C-a damping matrix;K-a stiffness matrix.
Based on a time-course analysis method, a numerical model of the buried pipeline is established by using finite element software, and on the basis, typical seismic waves are selected to perform seismic dynamic response calculation on each group of working conditions in an orthogonal test table. The specific application steps of the calculation method in this embodiment are as follows:
(1) inputting seismic waves: the numerical simulation of the buried pipeline under the action of the earthquake adopts a time-course analysis method, and three-dimensional earthquake motion is input in finite element software ABAQUS as the input of earthquake waves of pipeline ground vibration force response analysis.
In this embodiment, a typical wenchuan wave is selected, and an acceleration time course is used as a seismic input, and a time course curve is shown in fig. 3. According to the horizontal axial direction in GB50011-2010 anti-seismic design Specification for buildings: horizontal and transverse: vertical acceleration maximum = 1: 0.85: the 0.65 recommendation takes values of input values for horizontal lateral and vertical seismic motions.
Since the original recording of Wenchuan seismic waves is the local result recorded by different seismic stations, the original time-course recording cannot meet the requirements of seismic motion input with different intensities (6-10 intensities) required by numerical simulation, and the seismic waves are subjected to formula before numerical simulation
Amplitude modulation processing is carried out. In the formula:A'(t)-adjusted seismic time-history at any timetAn acceleration value of;A' max -the peak acceleration value of the adjusted seismic time-travel curve;A(t)any time of in-situ seismic wave time-course curvetAn acceleration value of;A max -peak acceleration value of the in-situ seismic time course.
The adjusted peak acceleration values of the seismic wave time-course curve corresponding to different intensities are valued by referring to the corresponding relation between the seismic fortification intensity and the design basic seismic acceleration value specified in GB50011-2010 building seismic design Specification and the appendix G of the comparison table of the site seismic peak acceleration and the seismic intensity in GB 18306-2015-China seismic motion parameter plot.
(2) Establishing a numerical model: in the modeling process of the embodiment, the pipe-soil contact is in a surface-to-surface contact type, the outer surface of the pipeline with higher rigidity is set as a main surface, and the inner surface of the soil with lower rigidity is set as a secondary surface. The contact attribute respectively defines normal behavior and tangential behavior, the normal behavior is defined as 'hard' contact, and the contact can be separated after the contact; the tangential behaviour is defined by a "penalty" function, the coefficient of friction between the pipe and the soil mass being taken to be 0.5. The front and back surfaces of the soil body and the pipeline are set as symmetrical constraint 'ZSYMM', and the left and right lateral surfaces of the soil body are set as symmetrical constraint 'XSYMM'. Inputting horizontal axial, horizontal and vertical earthquake motion along a Z axis, an X axis and a Y axis on the bottom surface of the soil body respectively.
The pipeline and soil grid are eight-node linear hexahedron reduction units C3D 8R. Generally speaking, enhancing the grid density can increase the accuracy of model calculation, but the dense grid will result in too long calculation time and too much memory. Therefore, local grids at the contact section of the soil body and the pipeline are refined for improving the working efficiency of the computer, meanwhile, the grid size of the pipeline is subjected to sensitivity analysis, and the analysis result can be used as reference for eliminating error influence brought by the grid size.
In the evaluation unit 1 of this embodiment, when the total number of pipeline grid cells is divided into about 40000, the calculation accuracy is high and the calculation efficiency is fastest, so this embodiment selects the size of the pipeline cell to divide the grid. The final mesh number for the total model is 147392.
(3) Model calculation: and performing pipeline seismic dynamic response calculation in finite element calculation software based on the selected seismic waves and the established numerical model, observing, extracting and recording related data, and preparing for finally solving the weight. The calculation results of this example are as follows:
orthogonal test design numbers 1-5, statistics of pipeline normal form equivalent stress results under 6-intensity seismic action are shown in table 7:
TABLE 7 seismic dynamic response results of orthogonal test design Nos. 1-5
The orthogonal test design number is 6-10, and statistics of the pipeline normal form equivalent stress result under the action of 7-intensity earthquake are shown in a table 8:
TABLE 8 seismic dynamic response results for orthogonal test design Nos. 6-10
③ orthogonal test design No. 11-15, statistics of equivalent stress results of pipeline normal form under 8-intensity earthquake are shown in Table 9:
TABLE 9 seismic dynamic response results for orthogonal test design Nos. 11-15
Orthogonal test design number is 16-20, and statistics of equivalent stress results of pipeline normal forms under 9-intensity seismic action are shown in table 10:
TABLE 10 orthogonal test design Nos. 16-20 seismic dynamic response results
The design number of the orthogonal test is 21-25, and the statistics of the pipeline normal form equivalent stress result under the action of 10-intensity earthquake are shown in a table 11:
TABLE 11 seismic dynamic response results for orthogonal test design Nos. 21-25
3) Grey correlation calculation
(1) Determining a reference sequenceX 0 ={x 0 (t) Comparing the sequencesX i ={x i (t)}: taking the maximum normal form equivalent stress value of the pipeline under the action of earthquake as a reference sequence, and referring to von Mises stress in tables 7 to 11 in detail; to be provided withThe severity, outer diameter, wall thickness, internal pressure, and burial depth of tables 7 to 11 are used as comparison sequences.
(2) Calculating the relative rate of change of the reference sequence by the following formulak 0(t) Comparing the relative rates of change of the sequencesk i (t) The calculation results are shown in table 12.
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,y 0(t+1) represents the difference between the t +1 th evaluation index and the t-th evaluation index in the reference sequence;y i (t+1) represents the difference between the t +1 th and the t-th evaluation index values in the comparison sequence.
TABLE 12 calculation of relative Change Rate
(3) Calculating the grey correlation coefficient between each reference sequence and the comparison sequence
：
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,k i (t) Relative rates of change for the comparison sequences;k 0(t) Is the relative rate of change of the reference sequence;ithe sequence number of the comparison sequence; when in usey i (t+1) Andy 0(t+1) when the signs are the same or all 0, the molecules take positive signs, otherwise, the molecules take negative signs; the calculation results are shown in table 13:
TABLE 13 Grey correlation coefficient calculation results
(4) According to the formula:
TABLE 14 Grey relevance calculation results
(5) Finally, according to the formula
TABLE 15 quantitative index weight calculation results
2. Determining the weight of the qualitative index: the qualitative index weight is determined according to an improved AHP method, the improved AHP method adopts a three-scale method to construct a judgment matrix, the consistency check is not needed for the calculation result, and the method is high in precision and speed.
Establishing a criterion layer to obtain a single-index undetermined measurement matrix of each risk factor;
constructing a corresponding measure function according to the evaluation index value in each risk factor of each pipe section and the index grading standard relationship in the table 2, and solving a corresponding single index measure vector; integrating the single-index measurement vectors to obtain a single-index undetermined measurement matrix of the risk factors of the criterion layer:
i=1,2；j=1,2,...,m'；k=1,2,...,p；
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,μ ijk -a measure function corresponding to the kth evaluation level of the jth index of the ith factor;m'-total number of indicators;p-evaluating the rating total;k-the kth rating.
Establishing a target layer to obtain a multi-index comprehensive measure evaluation vector;
based on the summarized weight calculation result and the established single-index undetermined measurement matrix of each risk factor, firstly, the measurement vector of the risk factor of the criterion layer is determined and usedμ k1、μ k2Andμ k3respectively representing the measure vectors of earthquake risk, pipeline vulnerability and disaster loss, and calculating a multi-index uncertain measure matrix by adopting a weighted summation method; and calculating a multi-index comprehensive measurement evaluation vector of the earthquake damage risk of the gas transmission pipeline of the target layer by adopting a normalization processing method after the integration.
Sixthly, risk grade identification:
the risk level of the pipe section 1 is determined by using a confidence criterion, and the confidence degree lambda in engineering is generally 0.6 or 0.7. Thus, the formula is identified according to the risk level:
calculating the risk level of the pipe section 1 (evaluation unit 1) by the following specific process:
when the λ =0.7, the number of pulses,μ 1+μ 2+μ 3=0.6907＜0.7，μ 1+μ 2+μ 3+μ 4=0.9221 > 0.7, so tube segment 1 is at a higher risk level C4 when confidence λ takes 0.7;
when the λ =0.6, the number of pulses,μ 1+μ 2=0.3854＜0.6，μ 1+μ 2+μ 3=0.6907 > 0.6, so tube segment 1 is at risk level C3 with confidence λ 0.6;
wherein:k 0-an evaluation unitxBelong to the firstk 0An evaluation classC k0；μ xl -an evaluation unitxCorrespond toC k0An undetermined measure of grade.
Finally, referring to the calculation process of the pipe segment 1, the pipe segments 2 to 7 were evaluated to obtain respective risk levels, and the results are summarized in table 16.
TABLE 16 summary of earthquake damage risk level identification results for pipe segments 1-7
Example 3:
on the basis of the embodiment 2, the weight determination process of the qualitative index is as follows:
step 1, establishing a hierarchical structure model shown in FIG. 2;
step (ii) of3. Calculating importance ranking indicesr i ；
In the formula:
step 5, obtaining a judgment matrixBIs transmitted to the matrixC；
In the formula:c ij =lgb ij ；
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
step 7, solving a pseudo-optimal consistent matrixB'；
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
；
1) ComputingB'Each row of element product ofN i ：
；
2) Root of fang gen
： 
；
3) Normalization
To obtainW i ：
；
Step 9, obtaining the weight of the qualitative indexW' i ：
The weight calculation results of the evaluation indexes finally obtained in this embodiment are shown in table 17, and table 17 includes the weight calculation results of the quantitative indexes and the qualitative indexes:
table 17 evaluation index weight calculation results
Example 4:
on the basis of example 3, the matrix is compared in step 2AData was obtained based on expert questionnaires. In order to overcome the defect caused by the lack of the earthquake damage data of the gas transmission pipeline in the prior art, the embodiment converts the quantitative index weight calculation result calculated by the numerical simulation analysis in the embodiment 2 into an expression mode in the expert questionnaire table according to the requirement, and incorporates the result into the design of the expert questionnaire table, thereby realizing the design optimization of the expert questionnaire table. The specific optimization method comprises the following steps:
based on a comparison matrixAEstablishing an expert questionnaire table, and substituting the calculation result of the quantitative index weight into a comparison matrixAIs/are as followsa ij In the value taking process, the comparison value between two quantitative indexes in the expert questionnaire table is directly assigned, and the comparison value is taken according to the set conditionsa ij Equal to 0 or 1 or 2, so that the assignment can be used as a constant value in an expert questionnaire without scoring the constant value by an expert, thereby remarkably reducing the subjective score of the expert on a comparison matrixAIs that the comparison matrix is improvedAThe objectivity and the accuracy of the method, further, the subjective influence of expert questionnaires on the weight of the qualitative indexes is obviously reduced, and the method has very important significance for optimizing the weight determination of the qualitative indexes.
The method is specifically applied to the embodiment, taking the risk factor of vulnerability of the pipeline as an example, that is: by passing
TABLE 18 expert questionnaire design form of comparison matrix in pipeline vulnerability risk factors
The above-mentioned embodiments are intended to illustrate the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in further detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are merely exemplary embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that, in this document, terms such as "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus.
Claims (8)
1. A method for evaluating earthquake damage of a gas transmission pipeline is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1, collecting basic data of the gas transmission pipeline, dividing the gas transmission pipeline into a plurality of evaluation units based on the basic data, and formulating evaluation indexes;
s2, determining the value of each evaluation index in each evaluation unit, and dividing the evaluation index into a quantitative index and a qualitative index; quantifying the values of all qualitative indexes; and all the evaluation indexes are summarized into different risk factors;
step S3, determining the weight of the quantitative index and the qualitative index in each evaluation unit respectively;
the weight determination method of the quantitative index comprises the following steps:
s311, designing orthogonal tests of a plurality of quantitative indexes under different factor levels;
s312, carrying out numerical simulation on the buried pipeline under the action of the earthquake by adopting a time course analysis method;
step S313, solving the grey correlation degree of each quantitative index relative to the normal form equivalent stress based on the numerical simulation result; normalizing the grey correlation degree of each quantitative index to obtain the weight of each quantitative index;
step S4, establishing a criterion layer to obtain a single index undetermined measurement matrix of each risk factor;
step S5, establishing a target layer based on the weight obtained in the step S3 and the single index uncertain measure matrix of each risk factor obtained in the step S4 to obtain a multi-index comprehensive measure evaluation vector;
step S6, identifying the risk level of each evaluation unit;
the method for carrying out numerical simulation on the buried pipeline under the action of the earthquake comprises the following steps:
step S3121, inputting three-dimensional seismic motion as seismic wave, and carrying out amplitude modulation processing on the seismic wave according to the following formula:
in the formula:A'(t)for adjusted seismic wave time-course curve at any timetAn acceleration value of;
A' max the adjusted seismic wave time-course curve is the peak value acceleration value;
A(t)at any time of the in-situ seismic time curvetAn acceleration value of;
A max the peak value acceleration value is the in-situ seismic wave time-course curve;
s3122, establishing a numerical model based on finite element calculation software;
and S3123, performing pipeline seismic dynamic response calculation in finite element calculation software based on the seismic waves and the established numerical model to obtain a normal form equivalent stress statistical result of the pipeline under the action of different intensity earthquakes.
2. The method for evaluating the earthquake damage of the gas transmission pipeline according to claim 1, wherein the basic data comprises pipe diameter, wall thickness, pipe material, service life, population density, seismic fortification intensity and station yard distribution.
3. The method for evaluating the earthquake damage of the gas transmission pipeline according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation index comprises: seismic magnitude-frequency coefficient, seismic peak acceleration along the line, fault, seismic geological disaster, outer diameter, wall thickness, operating pressure, burial depth, pipe, service life, pipeline joint, seismic fortification intensity, leakage degree, building density, population density, H2S concentration, carbon emission and natural reserve;
the risk factors include:
the earthquake risk factors comprise the following evaluation indexes: seismic level-frequency coefficient, seismic peak acceleration along the line, fault, seismic geological disaster;
the risk factors of the vulnerability of the pipeline comprise the following evaluation indexes: external diameter, wall thickness, operating pressure, buried depth, pipe, service life, pipeline joint and seismic fortification intensity;
the disaster damage risk factors comprise the following evaluation indexes: degree of leakage, building density, population density, H2S concentration, carbon emission, natural reserve.
4. The method for evaluating the earthquake damage of the gas transmission pipeline according to claim 1, wherein the step S313 comprises the following steps:
step S3131, determining a reference sequenceX 0 Comparison of sequencesX i ；
WhereinX 0 ={x 0 (t)}，X i ={x i (t)}，t=1,2,...,n， i=1,2,...,m(ii) a Wherein n is the total test times, t is the test times number,im is the number of the comparison sequence, and m is the total number of the comparison sequence;
step S3132, calculating a relative rate of change of the reference sequence by the following formulak 0(t) Comparing the relative rates of change of the sequencesk i (t)：
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,y 0(t+1) represents the difference between the t +1 th evaluation index and the t-th evaluation index in the reference sequence;y i (t+1) represents the difference between the t +1 th and the t-th evaluation index values in the comparison sequence;
step S3133, calculating a gray correlation coefficient between each reference sequence and the comparison sequence
：
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,k i (t) Relative rates of change for the comparison sequences;k 0(t) Is the relative rate of change of the reference sequence;ithe sequence number of the comparison sequence; when in usey i (t+1) Andy 0(t+1) when the signs are the same or all 0, the molecules take positive signs, otherwise, the molecules take negative signs;
step S3134, calculating gray correlation degree of each quantitative index with respect to the normal form equivalent stressγ i ：
step S3135, normalizing the gray correlation of each quantitative index according to the following formula to obtain the weight of each quantitative indexw i ：
5. The method for evaluating the earthquake damage of the gas transmission pipeline according to claim 1, wherein the method for determining the weight of the qualitative index comprises the following steps:
s321, establishing a hierarchical structure model;
step S322, establishing a comparison matrixA；
Step S323, calculating an importance ranking index;
step S324, establishing a judgment matrixB；
Step S325, obtaining a judgment matrixBIs transmitted to the matrixC；
Step S326, obtaining a transfer matrixCIs optimized to the transfer matrixD；
Step S327, calculating a pseudo-optimal consistent matrixB'；
Step S328, calculating a pseudo-optimal consistent matrixB'Feature vector ofW i ；
Step S329, obtaining the weight of qualitative indexW' i ：
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,findicating the total number of experts.
6. The method for evaluating the earthquake damage of the gas transmission pipeline according to claim 1, wherein the single-index undetermined measure matrix is expressed as:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,i=1,2；j=1,2,...,m'；k=1,2,...,p；
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,μ ijk a measure function corresponding to the kth evaluation level of the jth index of the ith factor;m'is the total number of indexes;pthe total number of evaluation grades is;kthe k-th evaluation scale.
7. The method for evaluating the earthquake damage of the gas transmission pipeline according to claim 1, wherein the method for calculating the multi-index comprehensive measure evaluation vector comprises the following steps: calculating measure vectors of risk factors of the criterion layer; and calculating a multi-index uncertain measure evaluation matrix based on each measure vector, and establishing a multi-index comprehensive measure evaluation vector.
8. The method for evaluating the earthquake damage of the gas transmission pipeline according to claim 1, wherein the risk level identification method comprises the following steps:
in the formula, lambda is confidence coefficient;xis an evaluation unit number;k 0to an evaluation unitxBelong to the firstk 0An evaluation classC k0；μ xl To an evaluation unitxCorrespond toC k0An undetermined measure of grade;pthe total number of evaluation grades.
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