CN113159700A - Convergence demand prediction accident emergency material scheduling modeling method for mine emergency rescue central station - Google Patents
Convergence demand prediction accident emergency material scheduling modeling method for mine emergency rescue central station Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to an accident emergency material scheduling modeling method for a mine emergency rescue central station with aggregated demand prediction. The method comprises the steps of collecting mine accident information; converting the single mine accident rescue point problem with convergence capacity into a specific multi-mine accident rescue point resource allocation and transportation problem by using a space-time conversion method; describing a model total target by using a pulse demand fluctuation function; defining a new mine accident emergency material demand proportion coefficient to obtain a recurrence formula of demand prediction; and finally, constructing a model based on the pulse demand fluctuation function and demand prediction. According to the mine accident emergency material scheduling method, the characteristics of mine accident emergency material time sequence convergence and the requirement information of the mine accident emergency materials in the actual mine accident emergency process are considered to be continuously changed along with the dynamic evolution of the accident, and the mine accident emergency material scheduling is carried out by combining the time sequence convergence and the requirement prediction, so that the mine accident emergency material scheduling is more consistent with the actual emergency requirement, the rescue time is shortened, and the cost is saved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to an accident emergency material scheduling modeling method for a mine emergency rescue central station with aggregated demand prediction, and belongs to the technical field of mine accident emergency management.
Background
Because various hazards of mines are more serious and frequent than other industries, the safety problem of mines is always a great subject which troubles the development of the mining industry. Therefore, when an emergency happens in a mine, it is very important to timely and effectively carry out emergency rescue work, and if the requirements of manpower, material resources and financial resources are not supplied in place, huge personnel and economic losses are caused. In addition, mine accidents have certain particularity relative to other conventional sudden accidents, the emergency rescue mine accident emergency material scheduling after the accidents occur is not completed at one time, but is performed under the condition that the emergency rescue mine accident emergency material demand information is continuously updated according to the dynamic evolution of the accidents, and the whole process has obvious time-varying property and dynamic property in time.
At the initial stage of a mine accident, the local emergency department often has insufficient reserve capacity of mine accident emergency materials of the accident to meet the requirement of the disaster-stricken point on the mine accident emergency materials, and the subsequent mine accident emergency materials need time to be prepared. If the mine accident emergency materials for domestic and international rescue successively reach the mine accident emergency material distribution center near the disaster site, or the quantity of the existing mine accident emergency materials for storage is not enough to meet the emergency requirement, a plurality of production enterprises need to be suddenly organized for production compensation. From these circumstances, the characteristics that the emergent goods and materials of mine accident have time sequence and assemble can be seen, and in addition, the consumption of the emergent goods and materials of mine accident also has time sequence consumption. In the existing research, multiple scholars such as Liuchunlin and the like have researched emergency material scheduling models based on continuous consumption, and the emergency material scheduling models with the earliest emergency time have been researched at Zhao Lin level and the like. However, the current research mostly focuses on emergency resource scheduling under large-scale disaster conditions, the research field is macroscopic, and related research on emergency material scheduling of mine accidents is few, so that the requirements of mine safety guarantee cannot be met. According to the method, time sequence convergence and demand prediction of the mine accident emergency materials are comprehensively considered, and a corresponding model is established for mine accident emergency material scheduling after a mine accident occurs.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is as follows: aiming at the problem that the existing research can not meet the requirement of mine emergency resource scheduling, the method for scheduling and modeling the accident emergency materials of the mine emergency rescue central station by gathering demand prediction is provided.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows: an accident emergency material scheduling modeling method for a mine emergency rescue central station with aggregated demand prediction comprises the following specific steps:
step 1, collecting mine accident site information, information of surrounding mine accident emergency material centralized and distributed centers and road condition information after a mine accident occurs;
step 2, converting each converged mine accident emergency material with converged time information into a new virtual mine accident rescue point by a time-space conversion method, wherein the problem is converted from a single mine accident rescue point problem with convergent capacity into a specific determined multi-mine accident rescue point emergency resource allocation and transportation problem;
step 3, a pulse demand fluctuation function is described, the pulse demand fluctuation function describes that mine accident emergency supplies at a single disaster demand point are not met, and therefore the general target of the model is described: the sum of the unmet requirements and the accumulated unsatisfied requirements of mine accident emergency materials at different disaster-affected points is minimum;
step 4, defining a demand proportion coefficient of newly-added mine accident emergency materials to obtain a recurrence formula of demand prediction;
and 5, building a model based on the pulse demand fluctuation function and the demand prediction, and calculating the quantity of mine accident emergency materials needing to be dispatched to each mine accident emergency material demand point by each mine accident emergency material distribution center and the mine accident emergency material convergence points when the sum of the unmet demand accumulation sum of the mine accident emergency materials of different disaster-affected points is minimum.
As a further aspect of the present invention, in the step 1:
the mine accident scene information includes: the mine accident emergency demand point set D and the initial mine accident emergency material demand of the mine accident emergency demand points;
the information of the peripheral mine accident emergency material distribution center comprises: a mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center set S, namely a mine accident rescue point set, the initial mine accident emergency material supply amount of the mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center and the number of the collected mine accident materials;
the road condition information includes: and the generalized time distance t from the rescue point of the mine accident to the emergency demand point of the mine accident.
As a further scheme of the invention, the concrete method for converting each converged mine accident emergency material with converged time information into a new virtual mine accident exit point by a space-time conversion method in the step 2 is as follows:
step 2.1: defining parameters and variables;
S＝{S1,S2,…,Snthe mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center (mine accident rescue point) is set, D is { D ═ D1,D2,…,DmIs a set of mine accident emergency demand points, Si(i-1, 2, …, n) initial mine incidentThe supply amount of emergency materials is si，Dj(j ═ 1,2, …, m) the initial mine accident emergency material demand is djAnd they satisfy
Namely, the supply of the mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center in the initial dispatching stage can not meet the demand of the mine accident emergency demand point, and the mine accident goes out of the rescue point SiEmergency demand point D for mine accidentsjHas a wide time distance of tij；
Step 2.2: converting the supply set to obtain a new set of mine accident rescue points;
suppose that the original mine accident should be taken care of by gathering and scattering the material SiHas ki(kiBelongs to N) mine accident emergency materials which are gathered, each gathered mine accident emergency material with gathering time information is converted into a new virtual mine accident rescue point to be processed, and the set of the new mine accident rescue points after conversion is defined as:
step 2.3: calculating the generalized time distance from the supply point to the mine accident emergency demand point in the new set;
the converted supply Point has two attributes S'i′(S′i′,t′i′j)，S′i′Mine accident emergency material supply quantity, t 'as supply point in new set'i′jThe generalized time distance from the supply point to the mine accident emergency demand point in the new set is defined, and the time from the new mine accident exit rescue point to the mine accident emergency demand point is represented by the original time plus the convergence time, namely:
wherein
Emergency material collecting and distributing center S for mine accidentsiThe convergence time of (c).
As a further scheme of the invention, the step 3 describes a single disaster-suffering demand point D by an impulse demand fluctuation functionjThe specific method for meeting the unmet requirements of emergency materials of mine accidents comprises the following steps:
step 3.1: obtaining a supply point set S ' ═ { S ' after space-time conversion '1,S′2,S′3,…,S′n′With the demand point DjIs a time distance vector t 'of destination'j＝(t′1j,t′2j,t′3j,…,t′n′j)；
Step 3.2: arranging the time distances in the vector into a sequence in ascending order
Step 3.3: setting a demand point DjThe pulse demand arrival time of
Wherein T isj1＝0；
Step 3.4: inserting the pulse time in step 3.3 into the time-distance ascending sequence in step 3.2 to form a new ascending sequence
At this time
Step 3.5: marking each time in the new ascending sequence at a demand point DjThe function curve of each time interval is a straight line perpendicular to the longitudinal axis on the horizontal axis of the demand fluctuation function, and the longitudinal axis values of each straight line are different. In the first time interval, the requirement curve is a straight line which is perpendicularly intersected with the longitudinal axis, and the ordinate of the point which is intersected with the longitudinal axis is the requirement point DjInitial requirement ofD is obtainedj1；
Step 3.6: during other periods of time
The ordinate value of the demand curve is dependent on
The situation of (2) changes:
(1) if it is
Belong to t'jSequence, i.e. in
When a certain batch of mine accident emergency materials arrive at the moment, the longitudinal axis value of the straight line at the time period is the longitudinal axis value of the straight line at the last time period minus the arrival quantity x of the mine accident emergency materialsi′j，xi′jIs taken to be 0 to its corresponding maximum supply point when x isi′jWhen the time is equal to 0, the emergency supplies of the mine accidents do not arrive, and the straight line of the time interval continues to the next time interval;
(2) if it is
Belonging to the demand pulse time vector TjI.e. in
Adding a pulse demand at the moment, wherein the vertical axis value of the straight line in the period is the vertical axis value of the straight line in the last period plus the pulse demand djr；
Step 3.7: step 3.1 to step 3.6 are integrated to obtain the mine accident emergency demand point DjPulse demand fluctuation of
The function is a recursive function:
step 3.8: based on step 37 description of the pulse demand fluctuation function, a single demand point D can be obtainedjThe unmet requirements of mine accident emergency materials are as follows: the area of a graph formed by the pulse demand fluctuation function and a coordinate axis in a surrounding mode is represented by the following expression:
as a further scheme of the present invention, the specific method for defining the demand proportion coefficient of the newly-added emergency materials of the mine accident in step 4 to obtain the recurrence formula of the demand forecast includes:
step 4.1: due to the demand point DjThe arrival time of the pulse demand and the demand are different, and the demand information of the emergency materials of the mine accident is continuously changed along with the dynamic evolution of the accident, so that the proportion coefficient of the demand of the emergency materials of the newly added mine accident at each decision time can be defined as follows:
wherein
Is composed of
The emergent material demand of the mine accident at any moment,
is composed of
The mine accident emergency material demand at different times and their values at different times satisfy the following formula:
wherein xi′jIs composed of
The arrival amount of the mine accident emergency material at that time, djrIs composed of
The pulse demand generated at a time, and k1、k2Is 0 or 1, so the above formula can be divided into the following four cases:
(1) when k is1＝k2When the value is 0:
is shown in
No mine accident emergency material arrives at the disaster site
No pulse requirement is generated at the disaster point at the moment;
(2)k1＝0、k2when the value is 1:
is shown in
No mine accident emergency material arrives at the disaster site
The time disaster point generates pulse demand with djr；
(3)k1＝1、k2When the value is 0:
is shown in
The emergency materials of the mine accident arrive at the disaster site at the moment, and the arrival quantity of the emergency materials of the mine accident is xi′jIn a
No pulse requirement is generated at the disaster point at the moment;
(4)k1＝1、k2when the value is 1:
is shown in
The emergency materials of the mine accident arrive at the disaster site at the moment, and the arrival quantity of the emergency materials of the mine accident is xi′jIn a
The disaster-affected point at any moment also generates pulse demand, and the pulse demand is djr；
Step 4.2: the demand point D in the process of dispatching the emergency materials of the mine accidents is obtained through the step 4.1jThe mine accident emergency material demand prediction recurrence relation is as follows:
when in use
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
when in use
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
……
when in use
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
wherein
Emergency demand point D for mine accidentjThe initial pulse demand.
As a further scheme of the present invention, in step 5, a specific method for constructing a model aiming at minimizing the sum of unmet demand accumulations of emergency supplies of mine accidents at different disaster-affected points comprises:
step 5.1: defining parameters and variables;
defining parameters and variables as: s is an initial mine accident emergency material distribution center set; s' is a set of mine accident emergency material supply points after space-time conversion; d is a demand point set; x is the number ofi′jIs a decision variable and represents a supply point S 'in the mine accident emergency material supply point set after time-space conversion'i′To the demand point DjActual mine accident emergency material quantity distribution; k is a radical ofiEmergency material collecting and distributing center S for gathering initial mine accidentsiThe number of the mine accident supplies is gathered; ljFor demand point D in the scheduling processjThe number of times the pulse demand of (2) occurs;
emergency material collecting and distributing center S for initial mine accidentsiGathering mine accident emergency materials;
is the demand point DjL ofjThe pulse requirement; djiIs the demand point DjI demand forecasts; siEmergency material collecting and distributing center S for initial mine accidentsiThe reserve amount of emergency materials of mine accidents; s'i′Is a mine accident emergency material supply point S 'after space-time conversion'i′The supply amount of emergency materials for mine accidents; t is tijEmergency material collecting and distributing center S for mine accidentsiTo the demand point DjGeneralized time distance of (d);
emergency material collecting and distributing center S for mine accidentsiThe convergence time of (a); t'i′jRepresenting supply points S 'in mine accident emergency material supply point set after space-time conversion'i′To the demand point DjGeneralized time distance of (d);
is the demand point DjThe required demand per pulse of (a);
is the demand point DjA predicted amount of each demand forecast of;
is the demand point DjThe time of occurrence of each pulse demand of (a);
step 5.2: model assumption;
(1) the efficiency problem of the allocated mine accident emergency materials is not considered, namely the mine accident emergency materials are delivered to represent that the part of the requirements are met;
(2) supposing that secondary requirements caused by low rescue efficiency of emergency materials of mine accidents or low quality of emergency materials of mine accidents are not considered;
(3) under the assumption that the direct transverse mine accident emergency material scheduling among supply points is not considered, the situation of insufficient transportation capacity is not considered, and meanwhile, as the mine accident emergency materials are gathered continuously, the total gathered mine accident emergency material quantity is considered to meet the sum of all pulse requirements in the overall view;
step 5.3: constructing a model;
according to the problem description, a mine accident emergency material scheduling model with pulse requirements of discrete convergence force can be constructed, the goal of the whole system is that the sum of the unmet requirements and accumulation of mine accident emergency materials of different disaster-affected points is minimum, and the functional expression is as follows:
the model constraints are:
the expression of the above formula is that under the condition of considering the mine accident emergency material convergence and the multi-stage demand pulse, the whole mine accident emergency material supply quantity is equal to the whole demand quantity, namely the whole supply and demand balance is realized;
expression of above is for supply point S'i′The sum of the mine accident emergency material amount dispatched to each demand point is equal to the mine accident emergency material supply amount of the mine accident emergency material amount;
the above formula is expressed as for the demand point DjAnd D, transferring to emergency material supply points for mine accidentsjThe sum of all mine accident emergency material quantity is equal to the sum of pulse demand quantity generated by the self multi-stage;
the above formula is expressed as for the demand point DjAnd D, transferring to emergency material supply points for mine accidentsjThe sum of all mine accident emergency material quantities is equal to the sum of the mine accident emergency material demand forecast quantities of each period;
The expression of the above formula is supply point S'i′Transporting to the demand point DjThe value range of the mine accident emergency material quantity can not be larger than the accumulated demand quantity of the mine accident emergency material at the previous stage of the demand point, if xi′jAnd if the value is zero, the emergency materials for the mine accident are not dispatched and transported.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: according to the mine accident emergency material scheduling method, time sequence aggregation and demand prediction of mine accident emergency materials are comprehensively considered, each aggregated mine accident emergency material with aggregation time information is converted into a new virtual mine accident rescue point by using a time-space conversion method, the problem of a single mine accident rescue point with aggregation capacity is converted into the problem of special and definite multi-mine accident rescue point resource allocation and transportation, and a mine accident emergency material scheduling model which aims at the minimum sum of unmet demands of mine accident emergency materials of different disaster points is constructed by using a pulse demand fluctuation function, so that the scheduling of the mine accident emergency materials is more suitable for actual emergency demands, the rescue time is shortened, and the cost is saved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of the mine accident emergency material transfer scheduling with the requirements for gathering mine accident emergency materials and pulses of the present invention.
Detailed Description
Example 1: as shown in fig. 1-2, a method for modeling emergency material scheduling for an emergency mine rescue center station with aggregated demand prediction includes the following steps:
step 1, collecting mine accident site information, information of surrounding mine accident emergency material centralized and distributed centers and road condition information after a mine accident occurs;
as a further aspect of the present invention, in the step 1:
the mine accident scene information includes: the mine accident emergency demand point set D and the initial mine accident emergency material demand of the mine accident emergency demand points;
the information of the peripheral mine accident emergency material distribution center comprises: a mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center set S, namely a mine accident rescue point set, the initial mine accident emergency material supply amount of the mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center and the number of the collected mine accident materials;
the road condition information includes: and the generalized time distance t from the rescue point of the mine accident to the emergency demand point of the mine accident.
Step 2, converting each converged mine accident emergency material with converged time information into a new virtual mine accident rescue point by a time-space conversion method, wherein the problem is converted from a single mine accident rescue point problem with convergent capacity into a specific determined multi-mine accident rescue point emergency resource allocation and transportation problem;
as a further scheme of the invention, the concrete method for converting each converged mine accident emergency material with converged time information into a new virtual mine accident exit point by a space-time conversion method in the step 2 is as follows:
step 2.1: defining parameters and variables;
S＝{S1,S2,…,Snthe mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center (mine accident rescue point) is set, D is { D ═ D1,D2,…,DmIs a set of mine accident emergency demand points, Si(i-1, 2, …, n) with an initial mine accident emergency material supply quantity of si，Dj(j ═ 1,2, …, m) the initial mine accident emergency material demand is djAnd they satisfy
Namely, the supply of the mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center in the initial dispatching stage can not meet the demand of the mine accident emergency demand point, and the mine accident goes out of the rescue point SiEmergency demand point D for mine accidentsjHas a wide time distance of tij；
Step 2.2: converting the supply set to obtain a new set of mine accident rescue points;
suppose that the original mine accident should be taken care of by gathering and scattering the material SiHas ki(kiBelongs to N) mine accident emergency materials which are gathered, each gathered mine accident emergency material with gathering time information is converted into a new virtual mine accident rescue point to be processed, and the set of the new mine accident rescue points after conversion is defined as:
step 2.3: calculating the generalized time distance from the supply point to the mine accident emergency demand point in the new set;
the converted supply Point has two attributes S'i′(S′i′,t′i′j)，S′i′Mine accident emergency material supply quantity, t 'as supply point in new set'i′jThe generalized time distance from the supply point to the mine accident emergency demand point in the new set is defined, and the time from the new mine accident exit rescue point to the mine accident emergency demand point is represented by the original time plus the convergence time, namely:
wherein
Emergency material collecting and distributing center S for mine accidentsiThe convergence time of (a);
step 3, a pulse demand fluctuation function is described, the pulse demand fluctuation function describes that mine accident emergency supplies at a single disaster demand point are not met, and therefore the general target of the model is described: the sum of the unmet requirements and the accumulated unsatisfied requirements of mine accident emergency materials at different disaster-affected points is minimum;
as a further scheme of the invention, the step 3 describes a single disaster-suffering demand point D by an impulse demand fluctuation functionjThe specific method for meeting the unmet requirements of emergency materials of mine accidents comprises the following steps:
step 3.1: obtaining a supply point set S ' ═ { S ' after space-time conversion '1,S′2,S′3,…,S′n′With the demand point DjIs a time distance vector t 'of destination'j＝(t′1j,t′2j,t′3j,…,t′n′j)；
Step 3.2: arranging the time distances in the vector into a sequence in ascending order
Step 3.3: setting a demand point DjThe pulse demand arrival time of
Wherein T isj1＝0；
Step 3.4: inserting the pulse time in step 3.3 into the time-distance ascending sequence in step 3.2 to form a new ascending sequence
At this time
Step 3.5: marking each time in the new ascending sequence at a demand point DjOn the horizontal axis of the demand fluctuation function, the function curve of each time intervalThe lines are all straight lines perpendicular to the longitudinal axis, and the longitudinal axis values of all the straight lines are different. In the first time interval, the requirement curve is a straight line which is perpendicularly intersected with the longitudinal axis, and the ordinate of the point which is intersected with the longitudinal axis is the requirement point DjInitial demand d ofj1；
Step 3.6: during other periods of time
The ordinate value of the demand curve is dependent on
The situation of (2) changes:
(1) if it is
Belong to t'jSequence, i.e. in
When a certain batch of mine accident emergency materials arrive at the moment, the longitudinal axis value of the straight line at the time period is the longitudinal axis value of the straight line at the last time period minus the arrival quantity x of the mine accident emergency materialsi′j，xi′jIs taken to be 0 to its corresponding maximum supply point when x isi′jWhen the time is equal to 0, the emergency supplies of the mine accidents do not arrive, and the straight line of the time interval continues to the next time interval;
(2) if it is
Belonging to the demand pulse time vector TjI.e. in
Adding a pulse demand at the moment, wherein the vertical axis value of the straight line in the period is the vertical axis value of the straight line in the last period plus the pulse demand djr；
Step 3.7: the steps 3.1 to 3.6 are combined,
obtaining the mine accident emergency demand point DjThe pulse demand fluctuation function of (a) is a recursive function:
step 3.8: based on the description of the pulse demand fluctuation function in step 3.7, a single demand point D can be obtainedjThe unmet requirements of mine accident emergency materials are as follows: the area of a graph formed by the pulse demand fluctuation function and a coordinate axis in a surrounding mode is represented by the following expression:
step 4, defining a demand proportion coefficient of newly-added mine accident emergency materials to obtain a recurrence formula of demand prediction;
as a further scheme of the present invention, the specific method for defining the demand proportion coefficient of the newly-added emergency materials of the mine accident in step 4 to obtain the recurrence formula of the demand forecast includes:
step 4.1: due to the demand point DjThe arrival time of the pulse demand and the demand are different, and the demand information of the emergency materials of the mine accident is continuously changed along with the dynamic evolution of the accident, so that the proportion coefficient of the demand of the emergency materials of the newly added mine accident at each decision time can be defined as follows:
wherein
Is composed of
The emergent material demand of the mine accident at any moment,
is composed of
The mine accident emergency material demand at different times and their values at different times satisfy the following formula:
wherein xi′jIs composed of
The arrival amount of the mine accident emergency material at that time, djrIs composed of
The pulse demand generated at a time, and k1、k2Is 0 or 1, so the above formula can be divided into the following four cases:
(1) when k is1＝k2When the value is 0:
is shown in
No mine accident emergency material arrives at the disaster site
No pulse requirement is generated at the disaster point at the moment;
(2)k1＝0、k2when the value is 1:
is shown in
No mine accident emergency material reaches disaster-affected pointIn a
The time disaster point generates pulse demand with djr；
(3)k1＝1、k2When the value is 0:
is shown in
The emergency materials of the mine accident arrive at the disaster site at the moment, and the arrival quantity of the emergency materials of the mine accident is xi′jIn a
No pulse requirement is generated at the disaster point at the moment;
(4)k1＝1、k2when the value is 1:
is shown in
The emergency materials of the mine accident arrive at the disaster site at the moment, and the arrival quantity of the emergency materials of the mine accident is xi′jIn a
The disaster-affected point at any moment also generates pulse demand, and the pulse demand is djr；
Step 4.2: the demand point D in the process of dispatching the emergency materials of the mine accidents is obtained through the step 4.1jThe mine accident emergency material demand prediction recurrence relation is as follows:
when in use
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
when in use
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
……
when in use
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
wherein
Emergency demand point D for mine accidentjThe initial pulse demand.
And 5, building a model based on the pulse demand fluctuation function and the demand prediction, and calculating the quantity of mine accident emergency materials needing to be dispatched to each mine accident emergency material demand point by each mine accident emergency material distribution center and the mine accident emergency material convergence points when the sum of the unmet demand accumulation sum of the mine accident emergency materials of different disaster-affected points is minimum.
As a further scheme of the present invention, in step 5, a specific method for constructing a model aiming at minimizing the sum of unmet demand accumulations of emergency supplies of mine accidents at different disaster-affected points comprises:
step 5.1: defining parameters and variables;
defining parameters and variables as: s is an initial mine accident emergency material distribution center set; s' is a mine accident emergency material supply point after space-time conversionGathering; d is a demand point set; x is the number ofi′jIs a decision variable and represents a supply point S 'in the mine accident emergency material supply point set after time-space conversion'i′To the demand point DjActual mine accident emergency material quantity distribution; k is a radical ofiEmergency material collecting and distributing center S for gathering initial mine accidentsiThe number of the mine accident supplies is gathered; ljFor demand point D in the scheduling processjThe number of times the pulse demand of (2) occurs;
emergency material collecting and distributing center S for initial mine accidentsiGathering mine accident emergency materials;
is the demand point DjL ofjThe pulse requirement; djiIs the demand point DjI demand forecasts; siEmergency material collecting and distributing center S for initial mine accidentsiThe reserve amount of emergency materials of mine accidents; s'i′Is a mine accident emergency material supply point S 'after space-time conversion'i′The supply amount of emergency materials for mine accidents; t is tijEmergency material collecting and distributing center S for mine accidentsiTo the demand point DjGeneralized time distance of (d);
emergency material collecting and distributing center S for mine accidentsiThe convergence time of (a); t'i′jRepresenting supply points S 'in mine accident emergency material supply point set after space-time conversion'i′To the demand point DjGeneralized time distance of (d);
is the demand point DjThe required demand per pulse of (a);
is the demand point DjA predicted amount of each demand forecast of;
is the demand point DjThe time of occurrence of each pulse demand of (a);
step 5.2: model assumption;
(1) the efficiency problem of the allocated mine accident emergency materials is not considered, namely the mine accident emergency materials are delivered to represent that the part of the requirements are met;
(2) supposing that secondary requirements caused by low rescue efficiency of emergency materials of mine accidents or low quality of emergency materials of mine accidents are not considered;
(3) under the assumption that the direct transverse mine accident emergency material scheduling among supply points is not considered, the situation of insufficient transportation capacity is not considered, and meanwhile, as the mine accident emergency materials are gathered continuously, the total gathered mine accident emergency material quantity is considered to meet the sum of all pulse requirements in the overall view;
step 5.3: constructing a model;
according to the problem description, a mine accident emergency material scheduling model with pulse requirements of discrete convergence force can be constructed, the goal of the whole system is that the sum of the unmet requirements and accumulation of mine accident emergency materials of different disaster-affected points is minimum, and the functional expression is as follows:
the model constraints are:
the expression of the above formula is that under the condition of considering the mine accident emergency material convergence and the multi-stage demand pulse, the whole mine accident emergency material supply quantity is equal to the whole demand quantity, namely the whole supply and demand balance is realized;
expression of above is for supply point S'i′The sum of the mine accident emergency material amount dispatched to each demand point is equal to the mine accident emergency material supply amount of the mine accident emergency material amount;
the above formula is expressed as for the demand point DjAnd D, transferring to emergency material supply points for mine accidentsjThe sum of all mine accident emergency material quantity is equal to the sum of pulse demand quantity generated by the self multi-stage;
the above formula is expressed as for the demand point DjAnd D, transferring to emergency material supply points for mine accidentsjThe sum of all mine accident emergency material quantities is equal to the sum of the mine accident emergency material demand forecast quantities of each period;
The expression of the above formula is supply point S'i′Transporting to the demand point DjThe value range of the mine accident emergency material quantity can not be larger than the accumulated demand quantity of the mine accident emergency material at the previous stage of the demand point, if xi′jAnd if the value is zero, the emergency materials for the mine accident are not dispatched and transported.
Example 2: as shown in fig. 1-2, the embodiment is the same as embodiment 1, except that:
step 1: after the mine accident occurs, acquiring mine accident site information, information of peripheral mine accident emergency material centralized and distributed centers and road condition information:
in this embodiment, there are 3 disaster-affected points, so the set of mine accident emergency demand points D { D }1,D2，D3There are 2 mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing centers nearby, so the set of mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing centers (mine accident rescue point) S ═ S1,S2The stock quantity of the mine accident emergency materials existing in the mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center at the initial stage of the mine accident is si＝(s1,s2) (21,17), the parameters of the mine accident emergency materials gathered to the two mine accident emergency material distribution centers are shown in table 1, the impulse demand situation of the disaster-affected point, namely the mine accident emergency material demand point, to each stage of the mine accident emergency materials is shown in table 2, the demand prediction situation of the mine accident emergency material demand point to each stage of the mine accident emergency materials is shown in table 3, and the time-distance parameters from the mine accident emergency material distribution centers to the disaster-affected point is shown in table 4;
table 1: parameters of mine accident emergency materials gathered to mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center
Table 2: mine accident emergency material demand point to mine accident emergency material pulse demand condition at each stage
Table 3: prediction condition of mine accident emergency material demand point to demands of mine accident emergency materials at each stage
Table 4: time distance (t) from mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center to disaster-affected pointij) Parameter(s)
Step 2: obtaining a new mine accident emergency material supply point set S' of 9 mine accident emergency material supply points by using a space-time conversion method:
S′＝{S′1,S′2,S′3,S′4,S′5,S′6,S′7,S′8,S′9}＝{S1,S11,S12,S13,S14,S2,S21,S22,S23}
mine accident emergency material quantity vector s 'of 9 converted mine accident emergency supply points'i：
s′i＝(s′1,s′2,s′3,s′4,s′5,s′6,s′7,s′8,s′9)＝(21,5,7,12,13,17,8,15,6)
By the formula
Calculating the time distance t 'from each point of the new mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center set to the disaster affected point after conversion'i′jThe parameters are shown in Table 5;
table 5: the converted time distance parameters from each point to the disaster point of the new mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center set
And step 3: constructing a function model taking the minimum sum of the unmet requirements and accumulation of the mine accident emergency materials at different disaster-affected points as a target:
the objective function is:
the model constraints are:
the expression of the above formula is that under the condition of considering the mine accident emergency material convergence and the multi-stage demand pulse, the whole mine accident emergency material supply quantity is equal to the whole demand quantity, namely the whole supply and demand balance is realized;
expression of above is for supply point S'i′The sum of the mine accident emergency material amount dispatched to each demand point is equal to the mine accident emergency material supply amount of the mine accident emergency material amount;
the above formula is expressed as for the demand point DjAnd D, transferring to emergency material supply points for mine accidentsjThe sum of all mine accident emergency material quantity is equal to the sum of pulse demand quantity generated by the self multi-stage;
the above formula is expressed as for the demand point DjAnd D, transferring to emergency material supply points for mine accidentsjThe sum of the emergency material amount of all mine accidents is equal to the mine accidents of each periodThe sum of the forecasted quantity of the emergency material demand;
The expression of the above formula is supply point S'i′Transporting to the demand point DjThe value range of the mine accident emergency material quantity can not be larger than the accumulated demand quantity of the mine accident emergency material at the previous stage of the demand point, if xi′jAnd if the value is zero, the emergency materials for the mine accident are not dispatched and transported.
And substituting all the parameters into a pulse demand fluctuation function, a demand prediction recurrence formula and an objective function, and solving under the constraint condition of the model, wherein the optimal solution of the decision variables of the mine accident emergency material scheduling scheme is shown in the table 6.
Table 6: decision variable optimal solution of mine accident emergency material scheduling scheme
The emergency material scheduling scheme of the mine accident is shown as follows:
distribution center S1Original 21 unit mine accident emergency material supply demand point D1，S1Gathering mine accident emergency material S11Allocating 5 unit mine accident emergency materials to demand points D1Gathering mine accident emergency material S12Allocating 3 unit mine accident emergency supplies to demand points D1Allocating 4 units of emergency materials for unit mine accident to demand points D3Gathering mine accident emergency material S13Allocating 6 unit mine accident emergency materials to demand points D1Allocating 6 unit mine accident emergency material to demand points D3Gathering mine accident emergency material S14Allocating 13 unit mine accident emergency materials to demand points D2(ii) a Distribution center S2Original 17 unit mine accident emergency materials are allocated to the demand point D2Allocating 11 unit mine accident emergency supplies to demand points D3，S2Assembled mine accident emergency material S213 units of mine accident emergency material allocation demand points D25 units of mine accident emergency material allocation demand points D3Gathering mine accident emergency material S2215 unit mine accident emergency material allocation demand points D3Gathering mine accident emergency material S23Allocating 6 single-unit mine accident emergency supplies to demand points D1The total accumulation of the system under this deployment scenario is not met with the minimum goal.
While the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the embodiments shown in the drawings, the present invention is not limited to the embodiments, and various changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the present invention within the knowledge of those skilled in the art.
Claims (6)
1. An accident emergency material scheduling modeling method for a mine emergency rescue central station with aggregated demand prediction is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method comprises the following specific steps:
step 1, collecting mine accident site information, information of surrounding mine accident emergency material distribution centers and road condition information after a mine accident occurs;
step 2, converting each converged mine accident emergency material with converged time information into a new virtual mine accident rescue point by a time-space conversion method, wherein the problem is converted from a single mine accident rescue point problem with convergent capacity into a specific determined multi-mine accident rescue point emergency resource allocation and transportation problem;
step 3, a pulse demand fluctuation function is described, the pulse demand fluctuation function describes that mine accident emergency supplies at a single disaster demand point are not met, and therefore the general target of the model is described: the sum of the unmet requirements and the accumulated unsatisfied requirements of mine accident emergency materials at different disaster-affected points is minimum;
step 4, defining a demand proportion coefficient of newly-added mine accident emergency materials to obtain a recurrence formula of demand prediction;
and 5, constructing a model based on the pulse demand fluctuation function and the demand prediction, and calculating the quantity of mine accident emergency materials which need to be dispatched to each mine accident emergency material demand point by each mine accident emergency material distribution center and the mine accident emergency material convergence points when the sum of the unmet demand accumulation sum of the mine accident emergency materials of different disaster-suffering points is minimum.
2. The method for modeling emergency material scheduling for mine emergency rescue central station with aggregated demand prediction according to claim 1, wherein: in the step 1:
the mine accident scene information includes: the mine accident emergency demand point set D and the initial mine accident emergency material demand of the mine accident emergency demand points;
the information of the peripheral mine accident emergency material distribution center comprises: a mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center set S, namely a mine accident rescue point set, the initial mine accident emergency material supply amount of the mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center and the number of the collected mine accident materials;
the road condition information includes: and the generalized time distance t from the rescue point of the mine accident to the emergency demand point of the mine accident.
3. The method for modeling emergency material scheduling for mine emergency rescue central station with aggregated demand prediction according to claim 1, wherein: in the step 2, a specific method for converting each converged mine accident emergency material with converged time information into a new virtual mine accident exit point by a time-space conversion method is as follows:
step 2.1: defining parameters and variables;
S＝{S1,S2,…,Snthe mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center (mine accident rescue point) is set, D is { D ═ D1,D2,…,DmIs a set of mine accident emergency demand points, Si(i-1, 2, …, n) with an initial mine accident emergency material supply quantity of si，Dj(j ═ 1,2, …, m) the initial mine accident emergency material demand is djAnd they satisfy
Namely, the supply of the mine accident emergency material collecting and distributing center in the initial dispatching stage can not meet the demand of the mine accident emergency demand point, and the mine accident goes out of the rescue point SiEmergency demand point D for mine accidentsjHas a generalized time distance of tij；
Step 2.2: converting the supply set to obtain a new set of mine accident rescue points;
suppose that the original mine accident should be taken care of by gathering and scattering the material SiHas ki(kiBelongs to N) mine accident emergency materials which are gathered, each gathered mine accident emergency material with gathering time information is converted into a new virtual mine accident rescue point to be processed, and the set of the new mine accident rescue points after conversion is defined as:
step 2.3: calculating the generalized time distance from the supply point to the mine accident emergency demand point in the new set;
the converted supply Point has two attributes S'i′(S′i′,t′i′j)，S′i′Mine accident emergency material supply quantity, t 'as supply point in new set'i′jThe generalized time distance from the supply point to the mine accident emergency demand point in the new set is defined, and the time from the new mine accident exit rescue point to the mine accident emergency demand point is represented by the original time plus the convergence time, namely:
wherein
Emergency material collecting and distributing center S for mine accidentsiThe convergence time of (c).
4. The method for modeling emergency material scheduling for mine emergency rescue central station with aggregated demand prediction according to claim 1, wherein: in the step 3, the pulse demand fluctuation function describes a single disaster-suffering demand point DjThe specific method for meeting the unmet requirements of emergency materials of mine accidents comprises the following steps:
step 3.1: obtaining a supply point set S ' ═ { S ' after space-time conversion '1，S′2，S′3，…，S′n′With the demand point DjIs a time distance vector t 'of destination'j＝(t′1j,t′2j,t′3j,…,t′n′j)；
Step 3.2: arranging the time distances in the vector into a sequence in ascending order
Step 3.3: setting a demand point DjThe pulse demand arrival time of
Wherein T isj1＝0；
Step 3.4: inserting the pulse time in step 3.3 into the time-distance ascending sequence in step 3.2 to form a new ascending sequence
At this time
Step 3.5: marking each time in the new ascending sequence at a demand point DjOn the horizontal axis of the demand fluctuation function, the function curve of each time interval is a straight line perpendicular to the vertical axis, and the values of the vertical axis of each straight line are different. In the first time interval, the requirement curve is a straight line which is perpendicularly intersected with the longitudinal axis, and the ordinate of the point which is intersected with the longitudinal axis is the requirement point DjInitial demand d ofj1；
Step 3.6: during other periods of time
The ordinate value of the demand curve is dependent on
The situation of (2) changes:
(1) if it is
Belong to t'jSequence, i.e. in
When a certain batch of mine accident emergency materials arrive at the moment, the longitudinal axis value of the straight line at the moment is the value obtained by subtracting the arrival quantity x of the mine accident emergency materials from the longitudinal axis value of the straight line at the last momenti′j，xi′jIs 0 to its corresponding maximum supply point, when x isi′jWhen the time is equal to 0, no mine accident emergency material arrives, and the straight line of the time period continues to the next time period;
(2) if it is
Belonging to the demand pulse time vector TjI.e. in
Time of dayAdding a pulse demand, the longitudinal axis value of the straight line of the period being the longitudinal axis value of the straight line of the last period plus the pulse demand djr；
Step 3.7: step 3.1 to step 3.6 are integrated to obtain the mine accident emergency demand point DjThe pulse demand fluctuation function of (a) is a recursive function:
step 3.8: based on the description of the pulse demand fluctuation function in step 3.7, a single demand point D can be obtainedjThe unmet requirements of mine accident emergency materials are as follows: the area of a graph formed by the pulse demand fluctuation function and a coordinate axis in a surrounding mode is represented by the following expression:
5. the method for modeling emergency material scheduling for mine emergency rescue central station with aggregated demand prediction according to claim 1, wherein: the specific method for defining the demand proportion coefficient of the newly-added mine accident emergency materials in the step 4 to obtain the recurrence formula of the demand forecast comprises the following steps:
step 4.1: due to the demand point DjThe arrival time of the pulse demand is different from the demand, and the demand information of the mine accident emergency materials is constantly changed along with the dynamic evolution of the accident, so that the proportion coefficient of the demand of the newly added mine accident emergency materials at each decision time can be defined as follows:
wherein
Is composed of
The emergent material demand of the mine accident at any moment,
is composed of
The mine accident emergency material demand at different times and their values at different times satisfy the following formula:
wherein xi′jIs composed of
The arrival amount of the mine accident emergency material at that time, djrIs composed of
The pulse demand generated at a time, and k1、k2Is 0 or 1, so the above formula can be divided into the following four cases:
(1) when k is1＝k2When the value is 0:
is shown in
No mine accident emergency material arrives at the disaster site
No pulse requirement is generated at the disaster point at the moment;
(2)k1＝0、k2when the value is 1:
is shown in
No mine accident emergency material arrives at the disaster site
The time disaster point generates pulse demand with djr；
(3)k1＝1、k2When the value is 0:
is shown in
The emergency materials of the mine accident arrive at the disaster site at the moment, and the arrival quantity of the emergency materials of the mine accident is xi′jIn a
No pulse requirement is generated at the disaster point at the moment;
(4)k1＝1、k2when the value is 1:
is shown in
Emergency material arrival disaster prevention caused by mine accidents at momentPoint, and the arrival quantity of emergency materials of mine accidents is xi′jIn a
The disaster-affected point at any moment also generates pulse demand, and the pulse demand is djr；
Step 4.2: the demand point D in the process of dispatching the emergency materials of the mine accidents is obtained through the step 4.1jThe mine accident emergency material demand prediction recurrence relation is as follows:
when in use
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
when in use
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
……
when in use
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
wherein
Emergency demand point D for mine accidentjThe initial pulse demand.
6. The method for modeling emergency material scheduling for mine emergency rescue central station with aggregated demand prediction according to claim 1, wherein: in the step 5, a specific method for constructing a model aiming at minimizing the sum of the unmet requirements and accumulations of mine accident emergency materials at different disaster-affected points comprises the following steps:
step 5.1: defining parameters and variables;
defining parameters and variables as: s is an initial mine accident emergency material distribution center set; s' is a set of mine accident emergency material supply points after space-time conversion; d is a demand point set; x is the number ofi′jIs a decision variable and represents a supply point S 'in the mine accident emergency material supply point set after space-time conversion'i′To the demand point DjActually distributing the emergency material quantity of the mine accidents; k is a radical ofiEmergency material collecting and distributing center S for gathering initial mine accidentsiThe number of the gathered mine accident materials; ljFor demand point D in the scheduling processjThe number of times the pulse demand of (2) occurs;
emergency material collecting and distributing center S for initial mine accidentsiGathering mine accident emergency materials;
is the demand point DjL ofjThe pulse requirement; djiIs the demand point DjI demand forecasts; siEmergency material collecting and distributing center S for initial mine accidentsiThe reserve amount of emergency materials of mine accidents; s'i′Is a mine accident emergency material supply point S 'after space-time conversion'i′The supply amount of emergency materials for mine accidents; t is tijEmergency material collecting and distributing center S for mine accidentsiTo the demand point DjGeneralized time distance of (d);
emergency material collecting and distributing center S for mine accidentsiThe convergence time of (a); t'ijRepresenting supply points S 'in the mine accident emergency material supply point set after space-time conversion'i′To the demand point DjGeneralized time distance of (d);
is the demand point DjThe demand required per pulse of (a);
is the demand point DjA predicted amount of each demand forecast of;
is the demand point DjThe time of occurrence of each pulse demand of (a);
step 5.2: model assumption;
(1) the efficiency problem of allocated mine accident emergency materials is assumed to be not considered, namely the mine accident emergency materials are delivered to represent that the part of the requirements are met;
(2) supposing that secondary requirements caused by low rescue efficiency of emergency materials of mine accidents or poor quality of emergency materials of mine accidents are not considered;
(3) on the assumption that direct transverse mine accident emergency material scheduling between supply points is not considered, the condition of insufficient transportation capacity is not considered, and meanwhile, due to continuous generation of aggregated mine accident emergency materials, the total aggregated mine accident emergency material quantity is considered to meet the sum of all pulse requirements in the overall view;
step 5.3: constructing a model;
according to the problem description, a mine accident emergency material scheduling model with pulse requirements of discrete convergence force can be constructed, the aim of the whole system is that the sum of the unmet requirements and accumulation of mine accident emergency materials at different disaster-affected points is the minimum, and the functional expression is as follows:
the model constraints are:
the expression of the above formula is that under the condition that the mine accident emergency materials and the multi-stage demand pulses are considered to be gathered, the whole mine accident emergency material supply quantity is equal to the whole demand quantity, namely the whole supply and demand balance is realized;
expression of above is for supply point S'i′The sum of the mine accident emergency material amount dispatched to each demand point is equal to the mine accident emergency material supply amount of the mine accident emergency material amount;
the above formula is expressed as for the demand point DjAnd D, transferring to emergency material supply points for mine accidentsjThe sum of all mine accident emergency material quantities is equal to the sum of pulse demand quantities generated in multiple stages;
the above formula is expressed as for the demand point DjAnd D, transferring to emergency material supply points for mine accidentsjThe sum of all mine accident emergency material quantities is equal to the sum of the mine accident emergency material demand forecast quantities of each period;
The expression of the above formula is supply point S'i′Transporting to the demand point DjOf (2) mineThe value range of the mountain accident emergency material quantity cannot be larger than the accumulated demand quantity of the mine accident emergency material at the previous stage of the demand point, if xi′jAnd if the value is zero, the emergency materials for the mine accident are not dispatched and transported.
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