CN113129166A - Power grid risk calculation method and device - Google Patents
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Abstract
The embodiment of the invention provides a power grid risk calculation method and device, and relates to the field of risk evaluation of power systems. The method comprises the following steps: under the condition that the risk power transmission line is determined, value ranges of total attack resources of typhoons and total defense resources of a power grid are determined, attack and defense resource combinations formed by the total attack resources and the total defense resources are determined according to the value ranges, attack strategy sets and defense strategy sets corresponding to all the defense resource combinations are determined, and fault probabilities of the risk power transmission line under all the attack and defense resource combinations are obtained; acquiring a payment matrix of a typhoon and power grid game according to the fault probability of each risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination and the power grid loss caused by the fault of each risk power transmission line; and solving Nash equilibrium according to the payment matrix, and calculating the total amount of resources distributed by each risk power transmission line in the Nash equilibrium solution corresponding to all attack and defense resource combinations for determining the vulnerability of each risk power transmission line.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of risk assessment of power systems, in particular to a power grid risk calculation method and device.
Background
Typhoon is a natural disaster with extremely strong destructive power, is often a high-incidence season in autumn and summer, and suffers from typhoon disasters about 10 times per year in the southeast coastal areas of China on average.
The maximum wind power level of the typhoon center can reach more than 8 levels (>17m/s), the maximum wind speed is even more than 56m/s, 150mm-300mm of precipitation can be generated in a short time in the area where the typhoon passes, the destructiveness is strong, and the power system cannot be fortunate.
In the prior art, damaged transmission lines in a power grid are often rush-repaired after typhoons occur, but the damage degree of each transmission line to the power grid when the transmission line breaks down under the attack of the typhoons cannot be estimated in advance, so that the transmission line which needs to pay attention to in particular is determined, and rush-repair resources are deployed in advance to the vicinity of the transmission line which causes the largest influence to the power grid when the transmission line breaks down.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention provides a power grid risk calculation method and device, which are used for predicting a power transmission line with the largest influence on a power grid when a fault occurs under typhoon attack, deploying emergency repair resources to the vicinity of the power transmission line in advance, and solving the problem that emergency repair cannot be timely performed when the power transmission line fails.
In order to achieve the above object, the embodiments of the present invention provide the following technical solutions:
in a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a power grid risk calculation method, where the method includes:
determining a risk power transmission line according to the typhoon data, wherein the risk power transmission line is a power transmission line which can be influenced by a wind speed greater than or equal to a threshold value in a power grid;
determining a first value range and a second value range, wherein the first value range is the value range of the total amount of attack resources of typhoon, and the second value range is the value range of the total amount of defense resources of the power grid;
determining an attack strategy set and a defense strategy set corresponding to each attack and defense resource group in an attack and defense resource group set, wherein the attack and defense resource group set comprises: the total amount of each attack resource is combined with the total amount of each defense resource to form attack and defense resource combination; the attack strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource combination comprises the following steps: each allocation strategy for allocating attack resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line, wherein a defense strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource combination comprises: each allocation strategy is used for allocating defense resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line;
acquiring the fault probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set;
acquiring a payment matrix of the typhoon and the power grid game according to the fault probability of each risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination and the power grid loss caused by the fault of each risk power transmission line;
solving Nash equilibrium according to the payment matrix, wherein an attack strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal attack strategy in the attack strategy set, and a defense strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal defense strategy in the defense strategy set;
determining the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line, wherein the total amount of resources corresponding to any risk power transmission line is the sum of the number of attack resources and the number of defense resources distributed to the risk power transmission line in Nash equilibrium corresponding to each attack and defense resource combination;
and determining the vulnerability of each risk power transmission line when the typhoon passes through the scene according to the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line, wherein the total amount of resources corresponding to the risk power transmission line is positively correlated with the vulnerability of the risk power transmission line.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the typhoon data includes: the longitude and latitude coordinates of the typhoon center, the wind ring radius of the typhoon and the wind direction of the typhoon.
As an optional implementation of the embodiment of the present invention, the threshold wind speed is 25 m/s.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the first value range and the second value range are both [1, M ];
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
and in order to round N/2 downwards, N is the number of the risk power transmission lines.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the obtaining of the failure probability of the risky power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set includes:
acquiring the fault probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set according to the following formula:
wherein, PkFor the probability of the occurrence of the fault of the dangerous power transmission line under the attack and defense resource combination K, akTotal number of attack resources for attack and defense resource combination K, dkTotal number of defense resources to attack and defense resource combination K, c1，c2Is a constant.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the power grid loss is calculated by a direct current power flow method.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the method further includes:
sequencing the risk power transmission lines according to the vulnerability of the risk power transmission lines to obtain a sequencing result of each risk power transmission line;
and outputting a sequencing result.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a power grid risk calculation apparatus, including:
the positioning module is used for determining a risk power transmission line according to the typhoon data, wherein the risk power transmission line is a power transmission line which can be influenced by a wind speed greater than or equal to a threshold value in a power grid;
the value taking module is used for determining a first value taking range and a second value taking range, wherein the first value taking range is the value taking range of the total amount of attack resources of typhoon, and the second value taking range is the value taking range of the total amount of defense resources of the power grid;
the allocation module is used for determining an attack strategy set and a defense strategy set corresponding to each attack and defense resource group in an attack and defense resource group set, wherein the attack and defense resource group set comprises: the total amount of each attack resource is combined with the total amount of each defense resource to form attack and defense resource combination; the attack strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource combination comprises the following steps: each allocation strategy for allocating attack resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line, wherein a defense strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource combination comprises: each allocation strategy is used for allocating defense resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line;
the statistical module is used for acquiring the fault probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set;
the acquisition module is used for acquiring a payment matrix of games of the attacking party and the defending party according to the fault probability of each risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination and the power grid loss caused by the fault of each risk power transmission line;
the processing module is used for solving Nash equilibrium according to the payment matrix, wherein an attack strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal attack strategy in the attack strategy set, and a defense strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal defense strategy in the defense strategy set;
the computing module is used for determining the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line, wherein the total amount of resources corresponding to any risk power transmission line is the sum of the number of attack resources and the number of defense resources distributed to the risk power transmission line in Nash equilibrium corresponding to each attack and defense resource combination;
and the determining module is used for determining the vulnerability of each risk power transmission line when the typhoon passes through the scene according to the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line, wherein the total amount of resources corresponding to the risk power transmission lines is positively correlated with the vulnerability of the risk power transmission lines.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the typhoon data includes: the longitude and latitude coordinates of the typhoon center, the wind ring radius of the typhoon and the wind direction of the typhoon.
As an optional implementation of the embodiment of the present invention, the threshold wind speed is 25 m/s.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the first value range and the second value range are both [1, M ];
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
and in order to round N/2 downwards, N is the number of the risk power transmission lines.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the statistical module is specifically configured to obtain the failure probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set according to the following formula:
wherein, PkFor the probability of the occurrence of the fault of the dangerous power transmission line under the attack and defense resource combination K, akTotal number of attack resources for attack and defense resource combination K, dkTotal number of defense resources to attack and defense resource combination K, c1，c2Is a constant.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the obtaining module is specifically configured to calculate the power grid loss by using a direct current power flow method.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the power grid risk calculation apparatus further includes: and the sequencing module is used for sequencing the risk power transmission lines according to the vulnerability of the risk power transmission lines to obtain the sequencing result of the risk power transmission lines.
And the output module is used for outputting the sequencing result.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer device, including: a memory for storing a computer program and a processor; the processor is configured to execute the steps of the grid risk calculation method according to the first aspect or any one of the optional embodiments of the first aspect when the computer program is invoked.
In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, where the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the grid risk calculation method according to the first aspect or any optional implementation manner of the first aspect.
The power grid risk calculation method provided by the embodiment of the invention determines an attack strategy set and a defense strategy set corresponding to each attack and defense resource group in an attack and defense resource group set formed by combining the total amount of each attack resource with the total amount of each defense resource under the conditions of determining a risk power transmission line according to typhoon data, determining a first value range of the total amount of attack resources of typhoons and determining a second value range of the total amount of defense resources of a power grid; acquiring the fault probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set; acquiring a payment matrix of games of the attacking party and the defending party according to the fault probability of each risk power transmission line under each attacking and defending resource combination and the power grid loss caused by the fault of each risk power transmission line; solving Nash equilibrium according to the payment matrix, wherein an attack strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal attack strategy in the attack strategy set, and a defense strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal defense strategy in the defense strategy set; determining the sum of the number of attack resources and the number of defense resources distributed to each risky power transmission line in Nash equilibrium corresponding to each attack and defense resource combination; and determining the vulnerability of each risk power transmission line when the typhoon passes through the boundary. In the embodiment of the invention, it is assumed that typhoon and power grid can carry out autonomous game by using corresponding attack resources and defense resources, typhoon attacks the risk power transmission line by using the attack resources to destroy the power grid, the power grid resists typhoon by using the defense resources and protects the risk power transmission line to minimize the damage of typhoon to the power grid, in the game, the embodiment of the invention firstly considers all possible attack and defense resource combinations, and combines all possible attack strategies under the attack and defense resource combination with each defense strategy under the attack and defense resource combination aiming at each attack and defense resource combination, so as to obtain all attack and defense strategy combinations under the attack and defense resource combination, and combines the fault probability of each power transmission line under each attack and defense strategy combination and the loss of the power grid after the fault, and an attack and defense strategy combination (Nash equilibrium) with game equilibrium exists, in the Nash, the attack strategy of typhoon is a strategy which can maximize the damage degree of the power grid when playing with the power grid, the defense strategy of the power grid is a strategy which can minimize the damage degree of the power grid, namely, the attack strategy in the strategy combination with nash equilibrium is the optimal strategy which can be adopted by typhoon, the defense strategy is the optimal strategy which can be adopted by the power grid, because if any party changes the own strategy, the typhoon and the power grid only increase the benefit of the other party when playing with the other party by using any strategy which is not in the nash equilibrium strategy combination, the sum of the quantity of attack resources and defense resources distributed on each risk power transmission line under the strategy combination in nash equilibrium can obtain the vulnerability of the risk power transmission line under the corresponding attack and defense resource total quantity combination, and sum the quantity of attack resources and defense resources distributed by each risk power transmission line in nash equilibrium corresponding to all attack and defense resource combinations, the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line can be determined, and as the total amount of resources corresponding to the risk power transmission lines is more, the risk power transmission lines are more fragile, the emergency repair resources can be deployed to the positions near the risk power transmission lines with high fragility in advance, and the emergency repair is facilitated in time.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the invention and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention.
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without inventive exercise.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart illustrating steps of a power grid risk calculation method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a second flowchart illustrating steps of a power grid risk calculation method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a diagram of a power grid structure provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a block diagram of a risk calculation device for a power grid according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a block diagram of a power grid risk calculation apparatus according to another embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is an internal structural view of a computer device in one embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order that the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention may be more clearly understood, a solution of the present invention will be further described below. It should be noted that the embodiments of the present invention and features of the embodiments may be combined with each other without conflict.
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention, but the present invention may be practiced in other ways than those described herein; it is to be understood that the embodiments described in this specification are only some embodiments of the invention, and not all embodiments.
The terms "first" and "second," and the like, in the description and in the claims of the present invention are used for distinguishing between synchronized objects, and are not used to describe a particular order of objects. For example, the first range of values and the second range of values are used to distinguish between different ranges of values, and are not used to describe a particular order of the ranges of values.
In the embodiments of the present invention, words such as "exemplary" or "for example" are used to mean serving as examples, illustrations or descriptions. Any embodiment or design described as "exemplary" or "e.g.," an embodiment of the present invention is not necessarily to be construed as preferred or advantageous over other embodiments or designs. Rather, use of the word "exemplary" or "such as" is intended to present concepts related in a concrete fashion.
An embodiment of the present invention provides a power grid risk calculation method, which, referring to fig. 1, includes the following steps S101 to S108:
and S101, determining the risk power transmission line according to the typhoon data.
The risk power transmission line is a power transmission line which can be influenced by wind speed greater than or equal to a threshold value in a power grid.
Optionally, the typhoon data includes: the longitude and latitude coordinates of the typhoon center, the wind ring radius of the typhoon and the wind direction of the typhoon.
Optionally, the threshold wind speed is 25 m/s.
Specifically, the typhoon data is not limited to the above types, and may include all data that can help to accurately judge the typhoon attack range, the threshold wind speed may be taken according to factors such as the actual firmness of the power grid, and the like, and in the embodiment of the present invention, the power transmission line affected by the wind circle of 25m/s or more is determined as the risk power transmission line.
S102, determining a first value range and a second value range.
The first value range is the value range of the total amount of attack resources of typhoon, and the second value range is the value range of the total amount of defense resources of the power grid.
Specifically, the attack resources of the typhoon are resources which can be utilized when the typhoon attacks the power grid, and the defense resources of the power grid are resources which can be utilized when the power grid and the typhoon game play.
Optionally, both the first value range and the second value range are [1, M ];
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
and in order to round N/2 downwards, N is the number of the risk power transmission lines.
Illustratively, when the number of the risk power transmission lines is 6, the first value range and the second value range are both [1,3], and when the number of the risk power transmission lines is 5, the first value range and the second value range are both [1,2], it should be noted that the first value and the second value are both integers in the corresponding value ranges.
S103, determining an attack strategy set and a defense strategy set corresponding to each attack and defense resource group in the attack and defense resource group set.
Wherein the set of attack and defense resources comprises: the total amount of each attack resource is combined with the total amount of each defense resource to form attack and defense resource combination; the attack strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource group comprises: each allocation strategy for allocating attack resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line, wherein a defense strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource group comprises: and each allocation strategy is used for allocating defense resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line.
Illustratively, the attack and defense resource group is (A)i,Dj)，AiRepresenting the total amount of attacking resources, DjRepresenting the total amount of defense resources, and recording the risk transmission line as { L1，L2，……，LNWhen attacked by typhoon }When 6 risk transmission lines exist in the power grid, if N is 6, A isi∈{1，2，3}，DjE to {1, 2, 3}, and attack and defense resource group (A)i,Dj) E { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (3,1), (3,2), (3,3) }, that is, there are 9 attack and defense resource sets in total.
The attack strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource group is recorded as
Denotes the attacking resource as AiThe total number of allocation policies for all possible attack resources in case (2); the corresponding set of defense strategies is
Denotes defensive resources as DjThe total number of allocation policies for all possible defensive resources in the case of (2).
Set of attack strategies
Each element in the system corresponds to a distribution strategy for distributing attack resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line by typhoons, and the defense strategy set is
Each element in the group corresponds to an allocation strategy of the power grid for allocating defense resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line, for example, in the attack and defense resource group (A)i,Dj) When the ratio is (2,2),
representation collection
There are 15 attack resource allocation strategies in total, one of which is (0,0,0,0,1,1) representing the line L5And a line L6Each of which is allocated an attack resource of 1,
representation collection
There are 15 allocation strategies for defensive resources in total, one of which is (0,1,0,1,0,0), indicating the line L2And a line L4Each of which is allocated a defensive resource of 1.
And S104, acquiring the fault probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set.
Optionally, the failure probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set is obtained according to the following formula:
wherein, PkFor the probability of the occurrence of the fault of the dangerous power transmission line under the attack and defense resource combination K, akTotal number of attack resources for attack and defense resource combination K, dkTotal number of defense resources to attack and defense resource combination K, c1，c2Is a constant.
Exemplary in a resource group (A)i,Dj) When the power transmission line fails to (2,2), the probability of the power transmission line failing is
According to the fault probability of each risk transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination and when each risk transmission line breaks downThe resulting grid loss is performed as follows in step S105.
And S105, obtaining a payment matrix of the typhoon and the power grid game.
Optionally, the grid loss is calculated by a direct current power flow (DC-OPF) method.
For example, a power transmission line L affected by typhoon is included in a certain power grid1、L2、L3、L4、L5、L6Considering the case where the attack and defense resources are (0,0,0,0,1,1) and (0,0,0,0,1,1), respectively, the line L is calculated5Fault probability P of5Line L6Fault probability P of6Calculating the line L of the power grid through the direct current tide5Loss LS in case of individual fault5Line L6Loss LS in case of individual fault6And a line L5、L6Loss of LS in simultaneous fault condition5_6Then, the expectation of loss of the grid in the case of the attack and defense resources being (0,0,0,0,1,1) and (0,0,0,0,1,1) is E ═ P5(1-P6)LS5+P6(1-P5)LS6+P5P6LS5_6The payment of the attacking party (typhoon) in this situation is E, and the payment of the defending party (power grid) in this situation is-E. The payment columns of the attacking and defending parties under different attacking and defending resource allocation combinations form a matrix, and the payment matrix is obtained, as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1
And S106, solving Nash equilibrium according to the payment matrix.
Wherein the attack strategy in the nash equilibrium is an optimal attack strategy in the attack strategy set, and the defense strategy in the nash equilibrium is an optimal defense strategy in the defense strategy set.
Specifically, when the combination of the attack strategy and the defense strategy meets nash balance, if typhoon changes the attack strategy of itself to play with the power grid, the income of itself will be reduced, that is, the severity of breaking the power grid will be reduced.
For example, referring to fig. 3, fig. 3 is a grid structure of a power grid affected by typhoon, where the number of nodes of the power grid system is 5, which are respectively denoted as: bus 1, Bus 2, Bus 3, Bus 4, Bus 5, there are a generator and a load on every node, and the load demand that corresponds is 50MW, 170MW, 90MW, 30MW, 300MW respectively, and the risk transmission circuit between Bus 1 and Bus 2 is L1And the risk power transmission circuit between Bus 1 and Bus 2 is L1And the risk power transmission circuit between Bus 2 and Bus 3 is L2And the risk power transmission circuit between Bus 1 and Bus 3 is L3And the risk power transmission circuit between Bus 1 and Bus 4 is L4And the risk power transmission circuit between Bus 3 and Bus 5 is L5And the risk power transmission circuit between Bus 4 and Bus 5 is L6Risk transmission line L1、L2、L3、L4、L5、L6The values per unit are 0.336pu, 0.215pu, 0.126pu, 0.180pu, 0.336pu, 0.130pu, respectively, and the parameters are shown in Table 2.
TABLE 2
The resource groups of attack and defense are (A)i,Dj) When the sum of (2,2) is greater, in a policy combination formed by satisfying the nash equilibrium attack policy and the defense policy, the attack policy of the typhoon is (0,0,0,0,1,1), and the defense policy of the power grid is (0,0,0,0,1,1), and the policy combination indicates that the typhoon uses 2 attack resources on the risk power transmission line L5、L6One is distributed, and for the distribution strategy of typhoon attack resources, the defense strategy of the power grid is a risk power transmission line L5、L6The damage degree of the power grid can be minimized when one defense resource is distributed, and similarly, when the attack strategy of the typhoon is (0,0,0,0,1,1) in the face of the defense strategy (0,0,0,0,1,1) of the power grid, the damage degree of the power grid can be maximized.
And executing the following step S107 according to the strategy combination which is formed by the attack and defense strategies and satisfies the Nash equilibrium attack strategy and the defense strategy corresponding to each attack and defense resource group.
And S107, determining the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line.
And the total amount of the resources corresponding to any risk power transmission line is the sum of the number of attack resources and the number of defense resources distributed to the risk power transmission line in Nash equilibrium corresponding to each attack and defense resource combination.
Because a strategy combination formed by satisfying the Nash equilibrium attack strategy and the defense strategy exists under each attack and defense resource group, the risk power transmission line L is calculatedkSum of attack resources NA allocated in all Nash-equilibriakAnd then calculating the risk transmission line LkSum ND of defense resources allocated in all Nash balanceskAccording to each line NAk+NDkThe total amount of resources corresponding to each of the risky power transmission lines can be obtained from the calculation result of (2), and the following step S108 is executed according to the total amount of resources corresponding to each of the risky power transmission lines.
And S108, determining the vulnerability of each risk power transmission line when the typhoon passes through the boundary.
And the total amount of resources corresponding to the risk power transmission line is positively correlated with the vulnerability of the risk power transmission line.
Specifically, the more the total amount of resources corresponding to the risk power transmission line, the more fragile the risk power transmission line is, the more the risk power transmission line is emphasized by both game parties, and correspondingly, the rush-repair resources can be brought close to the risk power transmission line with high fragility in advance, so that the risk power transmission line can be maintained in time when a fault occurs under the attack of typhoon.
Optionally, on the basis of the steps shown in fig. 1, the power grid risk calculation method provided in the embodiment of the present invention may also sequence the risk transmission lines according to the vulnerability of the risk transmission lines, and as shown in fig. 2, the following steps S109 to S110 are executed:
and S109, obtaining the sequencing result of each risk power transmission line.
Specifically, after the vulnerability of each risk power transmission line is obtained in step S108, the corresponding risk power transmission lines are ranked in the order of decreasing vulnerability.
And S110, outputting a sequencing result.
Specifically, in the output ranking results, the higher the ranking is, the greater the risk threatened by the typhoon is, and the ranking results output by the risk transmission lines in the power grid structure shown in fig. 3 according to the vulnerability are: l6 > L5 > L1 > L2 > L3 > L4.
The power grid risk calculation method provided by the embodiment of the invention determines an attack strategy set and a defense strategy set corresponding to each attack and defense resource group in an attack and defense resource group set formed by combining the total amount of each attack resource with the total amount of each defense resource under the conditions of determining a risk power transmission line according to typhoon data, determining a first value range of the total amount of attack resources of typhoons and determining a second value range of the total amount of defense resources of a power grid; acquiring the fault probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set; acquiring a payment matrix of games of the attacking party and the defending party according to the fault probability of each risk power transmission line under each attacking and defending resource combination and the power grid loss caused by the fault of each risk power transmission line; solving Nash equilibrium according to the payment matrix, wherein an attack strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal attack strategy in the attack strategy set, and a defense strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal defense strategy in the defense strategy set; determining the sum of the number of attack resources and the number of defense resources distributed to each risky power transmission line in Nash equilibrium corresponding to each attack and defense resource combination; and determining the vulnerability of each risk power transmission line when the typhoon passes through the boundary. In the embodiment of the invention, it is assumed that typhoon and power grid can carry out autonomous game by using corresponding attack resources and defense resources, typhoon attacks the risk power transmission line by using the attack resources to destroy the power grid, the power grid resists typhoon by using the defense resources and protects the risk power transmission line to minimize the damage of typhoon to the power grid, in the game, the embodiment of the invention firstly considers all possible attack and defense resource combinations, and combines all possible attack strategies under the attack and defense resource combination with each defense strategy under the attack and defense resource combination aiming at each attack and defense resource combination, so as to obtain all attack and defense strategy combinations under the attack and defense resource combination, and combines the fault probability of each power transmission line under each attack and defense strategy combination and the loss of the power grid after the fault, and an attack and defense strategy combination (Nash equilibrium) with game equilibrium exists, in the Nash, the attack strategy of typhoon is a strategy which can maximize the damage degree of the power grid when playing with the power grid, the defense strategy of the power grid is a strategy which can minimize the damage degree of the power grid, namely, the attack strategy in the strategy combination with nash equilibrium is the optimal strategy which can be adopted by typhoon, the defense strategy is the optimal strategy which can be adopted by the power grid, because if any party changes the own strategy, the typhoon and the power grid only increase the benefit of the other party when playing with the other party by using any strategy which is not in the nash equilibrium strategy combination, the sum of the quantity of attack resources and defense resources distributed on each risk power transmission line under the strategy combination in nash equilibrium can obtain the vulnerability of the risk power transmission line under the corresponding attack and defense resource total quantity combination, and sum the quantity of attack resources and defense resources distributed by each risk power transmission line in nash equilibrium corresponding to all attack and defense resource combinations, the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line can be determined, and as the total amount of resources corresponding to the risk power transmission lines is more, the risk power transmission lines are more fragile, the emergency repair resources can be deployed to the positions near the risk power transmission lines with high fragility in advance, and the emergency repair is facilitated in time.
Based on the same inventive concept, as an implementation of the foregoing method, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, where the terminal device embodiment corresponds to the foregoing method embodiment, and for convenience of reading, details in the foregoing method embodiment are not repeated in this apparatus embodiment one by one, but it should be clear that the terminal device in this embodiment can correspondingly implement all the contents in the foregoing method embodiment.
Fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 4, a terminal device 400 according to this embodiment includes:
the positioning module 401 is configured to determine a risk power transmission line according to the typhoon data, where the risk power transmission line is a power transmission line in a power grid that may be affected by a wind speed greater than or equal to a threshold value;
a value taking module 402, configured to determine a first value taking range and a second value taking range, where the first value taking range is a value taking range of a total amount of attack resources of a typhoon, and the second value taking range is a value taking range of a total amount of defense resources of a power grid;
an allocating module 403, configured to determine an attack policy set and a defense policy set corresponding to each attack and defense resource group in an attack and defense resource group set, where the attack and defense resource group set includes: the total amount of each attack resource is combined with the total amount of each defense resource to form attack and defense resource combination; the attack strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource combination comprises the following steps: each allocation strategy for allocating attack resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line, wherein a defense strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource combination comprises: each allocation strategy is used for allocating defense resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line;
a statistical module 404, configured to obtain a failure probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set;
an obtaining module 405, configured to obtain a payment matrix of a game between an attacking party and a defending party according to fault probabilities of risk power transmission lines in each attack and defense resource combination and power grid loss caused when the risk power transmission lines have faults;
a processing module 406, configured to solve nash equilibrium according to the payment matrix, where an attack policy in nash equilibrium is an optimal attack policy in the attack policy set, and a defense policy in nash equilibrium is an optimal defense policy in the defense policy set;
a calculating module 407, configured to determine a total amount of resources corresponding to each risky power transmission line, where the total amount of resources corresponding to any risky power transmission line is a sum of the number of attack resources and the number of defense resources allocated to the risky power transmission line in a policy combination corresponding to each attack and defense resource combination;
the determining module 408 is configured to determine the vulnerability of each risky power transmission line when the typhoon passes through the scene according to the total amount of resources corresponding to each risky power transmission line, where the total amount of resources corresponding to the risky power transmission line is positively correlated with the vulnerability of the risky power transmission line.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the typhoon data includes: the longitude and latitude coordinates of the typhoon center, the wind ring radius of the typhoon and the wind direction of the typhoon.
As an optional implementation of the embodiment of the present invention, the threshold wind speed is 25 m/s.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the first value range and the second value range are both [1, M ];
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
and in order to round N/2 downwards, N is the number of the risk power transmission lines.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the statistical module is specifically configured to obtain the failure probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set according to the following formula:
wherein, PkFor the probability of the occurrence of the fault of the dangerous power transmission line under the attack and defense resource combination K, akTotal number of attack resources for attack and defense resource combination K, dkTotal number of defense resources to attack and defense resource combination K, c1，c2Is a constant.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the obtaining module is specifically configured to calculate the power grid loss by using a direct current power flow method.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, referring to fig. 5, the electronic device further includes:
and the sorting module 409 is used for sorting the risk power transmission lines according to the vulnerability of the risk power transmission lines and obtaining the sorting result of the risk power transmission lines.
And an output module 410, configured to output the sorting result.
The electronic device provided by this embodiment may execute the power grid risk calculation method provided by the above method embodiment, and the implementation principle and the technical effect are similar, which are not described herein again.
For specific limitations of the electronic device, reference may be made to the above limitations of the grid risk calculation method, which is not described herein again. The various modules in the electronic device described above may be implemented in whole or in part by software, hardware, and combinations thereof. The modules can be embedded in a hardware form or independent from a processor in the computer device, and can also be stored in a memory in the computer device in a software form, so that the processor can call and execute operations corresponding to the modules.
In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, which may be a terminal device, and its internal structure diagram may be as shown in fig. 6. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, a communication interface, a display screen, and an input device connected by a system bus. Wherein the processor of the computer device is configured to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device comprises a nonvolatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of an operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The communication interface of the computer device is used for carrying out wired or wireless communication with an external terminal, and the wireless communication can be realized through WIFI, an operator network, Near Field Communication (NFC) or other technologies. The computer program is executed by a processor to implement the grid risk calculation method provided by the above embodiments. The display screen of the computer equipment can be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the input device of the computer equipment can be a touch layer covered on the display screen, a key, a track ball or a touch pad arranged on the shell of the computer equipment, an external keyboard, a touch pad or a mouse and the like.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the architecture shown in fig. 6 is merely a block diagram of some of the structures associated with the disclosed aspects and is not intended to limit the computing devices to which the disclosed aspects apply, as particular computing devices may include more or less components than those shown, or may combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components.
In one embodiment, the electronic device provided by the present application may be implemented in the form of a computer program that is executable on a computer device as shown in fig. 6. The memory of the computer device may store various program modules constituting the electronic device, such as the obtaining module 405 and the processing module 406 shown in fig. 4. The computer program formed by the program modules enables the processor to execute the steps of the power grid risk calculation method described in the specification.
In one embodiment, there is provided a computer device comprising a memory storing a computer program and a processor implementing the following steps when the processor executes the computer program: determining a risk power transmission line according to the typhoon data, wherein the risk power transmission line is a power transmission line which can be influenced by a wind speed greater than or equal to a threshold value in a power grid; determining a first value range and a second value range, wherein the first value range is the value range of the total amount of attack resources of typhoon, and the second value range is the value range of the total amount of defense resources of the power grid; determining an attack strategy set and a defense strategy set corresponding to each attack and defense resource group in an attack and defense resource group set, wherein the attack and defense resource group set comprises: the total amount of each attack resource is combined with the total amount of each defense resource to form attack and defense resource combination; the attack strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource combination comprises the following steps: each allocation strategy for allocating attack resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line, wherein a defense strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource combination comprises: each allocation strategy is used for allocating defense resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line; acquiring the fault probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set; acquiring a payment matrix of the typhoon and the power grid game according to the fault probability of each risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination and the power grid loss caused by the fault of each risk power transmission line; solving Nash equilibrium according to the payment matrix, wherein an attack strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal attack strategy in the attack strategy set, and a defense strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal defense strategy in the defense strategy set; determining the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line, wherein the total amount of resources corresponding to any risk power transmission line is the sum of the number of attack resources and the number of defense resources distributed to the risk power transmission line in the strategy combination corresponding to each attack and defense resource combination; and determining the vulnerability of each risk power transmission line when the typhoon passes through the scene according to the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line, wherein the total amount of resources corresponding to the risk power transmission line is positively correlated with the vulnerability of the risk power transmission line.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the typhoon data includes: the longitude and latitude coordinates of the typhoon center, the wind ring radius of the typhoon and the wind direction of the typhoon.
As an optional implementation of the embodiment of the present invention, the threshold wind speed is 25 m/s.
As an optional implementation manner of the embodiment of the present invention, the first value range and the second value range are both [1, M ];
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
and in order to round N/2 downwards, N is the number of the risk power transmission lines.
In one embodiment, the processor when executing the computer program embodies the following steps:
acquiring the fault probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set according to the following formula:
wherein, PkFor the probability of the occurrence of the fault of the dangerous power transmission line under the attack and defense resource combination K, akTotal number of attack resources for attack and defense resource combination K, dkTotal number of defense resources to attack and defense resource combination K, c1，c2Is a constant.
In one embodiment, the processor when executing the computer program to obtain the payment matrix embodies the following steps:
and calculating the loss of the power grid through a direct current power flow method.
In one embodiment, the processor, when executing the computer program, further performs the steps of:
sequencing the risk power transmission lines according to the vulnerability of the risk power transmission lines to obtain a sequencing result of each risk power transmission line;
and outputting a sequencing result.
The embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, where a computer program is stored on the computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for calculating a risk of a power grid provided in the foregoing method embodiment is implemented, and the implementation principle and the technical effect of the method are similar, and are not described herein again.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media having computer-usable program code embodied in the medium.
Computer readable media include both permanent and non-permanent, removable and non-removable storage media. Storage media may implement information storage by any method or technology, and the information may be computer-readable instructions, data structures, modules of a program, or other data. Examples of computer storage media include, but are not limited to, phase change memory (PRAM), Static Random Access Memory (SRAM), Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), other types of Random Access Memory (RAM), Read Only Memory (ROM), Electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technology, compact disc read only memory (CD-ROM), Digital Versatile Discs (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic cassettes, magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, or any other non-transmission medium that can be used to store information that can be accessed by a computing device. As defined herein, computer readable media does not include transitory computer readable media (transmyedia) such as modulated data signals and carrier waves.
It should be noted that, in this document, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus.
The foregoing are merely exemplary embodiments of the present invention, which enable those skilled in the art to understand or practice the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
Claims (10)
1. A power grid risk calculation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining a risk power transmission line according to the typhoon data, wherein the risk power transmission line is a power transmission line which can be influenced by a wind speed greater than or equal to a threshold value in a power grid;
determining a first value range and a second value range, wherein the first value range is the value range of the total amount of attack resources of typhoon, and the second value range is the value range of the total amount of defense resources of the power grid;
determining an attack strategy set and a defense strategy set corresponding to each attack and defense resource combination in an attack and defense resource group set, wherein the attack and defense resource group set comprises: the total amount of each attack resource is combined with the total amount of each defense resource to form attack and defense resource combination; the attack strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource group comprises: each allocation strategy for allocating attack resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line, wherein a defense strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource group comprises: each allocation strategy is used for allocating defense resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line;
acquiring the fault probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set;
acquiring a payment matrix of the typhoon and the power grid game according to the fault probability of each risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination and the power grid loss caused by the fault of each risk power transmission line;
solving Nash equilibrium according to the payment matrix, wherein an attack strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal attack strategy in the attack strategy set, and a defense strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal defense strategy in the defense strategy set;
determining the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line, wherein the total amount of resources corresponding to any risk power transmission line is the sum of the number of attack resources and the number of defense resources distributed to the risk power transmission line in Nash equilibrium corresponding to each attack and defense resource combination;
and determining the vulnerability of each risk power transmission line when the typhoon passes through the scene according to the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line, wherein the total amount of resources corresponding to the risk power transmission line is positively correlated with the vulnerability of the risk power transmission line.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the typhoon data comprises: the longitude and latitude coordinates of the typhoon center, the wind ring radius of the typhoon and the wind direction of the typhoon.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the threshold wind speed is 25 m/s.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the first range of values and the second range of values are both [1, M ];
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
and in order to round N/2 downwards, N is the number of the risk power transmission lines.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the obtaining the failure probability of the risky power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set comprises:
acquiring the fault probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set according to the following formula:
wherein, PkFor the probability of the occurrence of the fault of the dangerous power transmission line under the attack and defense resource combination K, akTotal number of attack resources for attack and defense resource combination K, dkTotal number of defense resources to attack and defense resource combination K, c1，c2Is a constant.
6. The method of claim 1,
and calculating the loss of the power grid through a direct current power flow method.
7. The method of claim 1, further comprising:
sequencing the risk power transmission lines according to the vulnerability of the risk power transmission lines to obtain a sequencing result of each risk power transmission line;
and outputting a sequencing result.
8. A grid risk calculation device, comprising:
the positioning module is used for determining a risk power transmission line according to the typhoon data, wherein the risk power transmission line is a power transmission line which can be influenced by a wind speed greater than or equal to a threshold value in a power grid;
the value taking module is used for determining a first value taking range and a second value taking range, wherein the first value taking range is the value taking range of the total amount of attack resources of typhoon, and the second value taking range is the value taking range of the total amount of defense resources of the power grid;
the allocation module is used for determining an attack strategy set and a defense strategy set corresponding to each attack and defense resource group in an attack and defense resource group set, wherein the attack and defense resource group set comprises: the total amount of each attack resource is combined with the total amount of each defense resource to form attack and defense resource combination; the attack strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource combination comprises the following steps: each allocation strategy for allocating attack resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line, wherein a defense strategy set corresponding to any attack and defense resource combination comprises: each allocation strategy is used for allocating defense resources in the attack and defense resource group to the risk power transmission line;
the statistical module is used for acquiring the fault probability of the risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination in the attack and defense resource group set;
the acquisition module is used for calculating the power grid loss through the direct current flow according to the fault probability of each risk power transmission line under each attack and defense resource combination, and acquiring a payment matrix of the game of both the attack and defense parties;
the processing module is used for solving Nash equilibrium according to the payment matrix, wherein an attack strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal attack strategy in the attack strategy set, and a defense strategy in the Nash equilibrium is an optimal defense strategy in the defense strategy set;
the computing module is used for determining the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line, wherein the total amount of resources corresponding to any risk power transmission line is the sum of the number of attack resources and the number of defense resources distributed to the risk power transmission line in Nash equilibrium corresponding to each attack and defense resource combination;
and the determining module is used for determining the vulnerability of each risk power transmission line when the typhoon passes through the scene according to the total amount of resources corresponding to each risk power transmission line, wherein the total amount of resources corresponding to the risk power transmission lines is positively correlated with the vulnerability of the risk power transmission lines.
9. A computer device, comprising: a memory for storing a computer program and a processor; the processor is adapted to perform the steps of the grid risk calculation method of any of claims 1-7 when invoking the computer program.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that a computer program is stored thereon, which computer program, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the grid risk calculation method according to any one of the claims 1-7.
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| CN108769062A (en) * | 2018-06-26 | 2018-11-06 | 国网福建省电力有限公司 | A kind of defence method towards power information physical system multi-Stage Network Attack |
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