CN113095637A - Method and system for evaluating economic feasibility of bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology - Google Patents
Method and system for evaluating economic feasibility of bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A method and a system for evaluating the economic feasibility of a bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology are disclosed, wherein a patent database is obtained by acquiring a patent application file and a policy file related to bioenergy and carbon dioxide capture and sequestration, according to the title, abstract and keywords of the patent application file, and a policy database is obtained according to the full text of the policy file; the method comprises the steps of identifying theme distribution and word distribution of a database through machine learning according to a patent database and a policy database, identifying the BECCS technology with the inventive prospect according to the theme distribution and the word distribution of the database, constructing an energy-saving and emission-reducing benefit evaluation framework through an energy-saving supply curve, evaluating the energy-saving and emission-reducing benefits of the BECCS technology through the energy-saving and emission-reducing benefit evaluation framework, and having the advantages of being comprehensive, accurate, strong in prospect and the like.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of technical and economic evaluation, and particularly relates to a method and a system for evaluating the economic feasibility of bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies.
Background
The traditional method for evaluating the economic feasibility of the technology mainly aims at the prior art, lacks consideration on the development trend of the technology, has weak foresight and strong one-sidedness, and cannot meet the planning and deployment requirements of emerging technologies under the background of big data. Biological Energy and Carbon Capture and Storage technology (Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage, BECCS) is an important green technology, can reduce Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and is vital to coping with climate change and realizing sustainable development. As a negative emission approach which is most likely to realize commercial deployment, at present, there is no intelligent technical scheme for evaluating the energy saving and emission reduction benefit of the BECCS technology based on a future perspective, so that research and development of a method and a system for evaluating the economic feasibility of the BECCS technology to realize energy saving and emission reduction benefit evaluation of the BECCS technology become a technical problem to be solved urgently by researchers in the field.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a method and a system for evaluating the economic feasibility of bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies, and overcomes the defects of weak prospect, strong one-sidedness and the like of the traditional method.
A method for assessing the economic viability of bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies comprising the steps of:
s1: obtaining patent application documents and policy documents related to the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies;
s2: obtaining a patent database through word segmentation operation based on the title, abstract and key words of the patent application file; meanwhile, a policy database is obtained through word segmentation operation based on the file content of the policy file;
s3: obtaining the subject distribution and word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology from the patent database and the policy database by adopting a machine learning mode;
s4: identifying an energy-saving technology with a negative emission effect in a patent database and a policy database according to the theme distribution and the word distribution;
s5: taking at least 3 related patents as judgment standards with development prospects, and acquiring bioenergy with development prospects and a carbon capture and sequestration technology from the energy-saving technology;
s6: according to the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with the development prospect, the energy-saving emission-reduction cost and the energy-saving emission-reduction potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with the development prospect are evaluated through an energy-saving supply curve;
s7: and evaluating the energy saving and emission reduction benefits of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospect according to the energy saving and emission reduction cost and the energy saving and emission reduction potential.
Further, the patent application documents and policy documents related to bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies are specifically:
keywords include bioenergy and carbon dioxide capture and storage, bioenergy, biofuel, negative emissions or carbon capture and storage patent applications, keywords include policy documents for biomass power generation.
Further, the patent application document is obtained through a Derman database of a core set of Web of Science database, and the policy document is obtained through a Cervus elaphus Chinensis database.
Further, the step S3 of obtaining the subject distribution and word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology from the patent database and the policy database by machine learning specifically includes:
creating a DT matrix according to the patent database and the policy database;
and constructing a Dirichlet distribution topic model according to the DT matrix to obtain topic distribution and word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology.
Further, the evaluation method of the energy saving and emission reduction cost and the energy saving and emission reduction potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospects specifically comprises the following steps:
s61: constructing an energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework, wherein the energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework comprises emission-reduction cost and emission-reduction potential analysis, profit-loss balance analysis, synergistic benefit analysis and sensitivity analysis;
s62: according to the energy-saving and emission-reducing benefit evaluation framework, the energy-saving and emission-reducing cost and the energy-saving and emission-reducing potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospects are evaluated, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
obtaining the carbon value of the newly-built biomass power plant during profit-loss balance according to an emission reduction cost calculation formula;
estimating the biological energy with development prospect and the synergistic benefit of the carbon capture and sequestration technology according to the economic loss of the energy-saving and coal price, the emission reduction and carbon price, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide, the inhalable particles, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide and the inhalable particles to the environment;
and changing the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy, respectively substituting the changed discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy into the emission reduction cost calculation formula, judging whether the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy can cause the increase or decrease of the emission reduction cost or not, and obtaining the corresponding increase and decrease so as to realize the sensitivity analysis of the emission reduction cost on the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy.
A system for evaluating economic feasibility of biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies comprises a file acquisition module, a database acquisition module, a machine learning module, a technology identification module, a judgment module, a first evaluation module and a second evaluation module;
the file acquisition module is used for acquiring patent application files and policy files related to the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology;
the database acquisition module is used for obtaining a patent database through word segmentation operation based on the title, abstract and key words of the patent application file; meanwhile, a policy database is obtained through word segmentation operation based on the file content of the policy file;
the machine learning module is used for acquiring the subject distribution and the word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology from the patent database and the policy database in a machine learning mode;
the technology identification module is used for identifying energy-saving technologies with negative emission effects in a patent database and a policy database according to the theme distribution and the word distribution;
the judgment module is used for acquiring bioenergy with development prospect and a carbon capture and sequestration technology from the energy-saving technology by taking not less than 3 related patents as judgment standards with development prospect;
the first evaluation module is used for evaluating the energy-saving emission-reducing cost and the energy-saving emission-reducing potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with the development prospect through an energy-saving supply curve according to the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with the development prospect;
and the second evaluation module is used for evaluating the energy saving and emission reduction benefits of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospects according to the energy saving and emission reduction cost and the energy saving and emission reduction potential.
Further, the machine learning module comprises a matrix acquisition unit and a distribution acquisition unit;
the matrix acquisition unit is used for creating a DT matrix according to the patent database and the policy database;
the distribution obtaining unit is used for constructing a Dirichlet distribution topic model according to the DT matrix to obtain topic distribution and word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology.
Further, the first evaluation module comprises a framework construction unit and an evaluation unit;
the framework construction unit is used for constructing an energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework, wherein the energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework comprises emission-reduction cost and emission-reduction potential analysis, profit-loss balance analysis, synergistic benefit analysis and sensitivity analysis;
the evaluation unit is used for evaluating the energy saving and emission reducing cost and the energy saving and emission reducing potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospect according to the energy saving and emission reducing benefit evaluation framework, and specifically comprises the following steps:
obtaining the carbon value of the newly-built biomass power plant during profit-loss balance according to an emission reduction cost calculation formula;
estimating the biological energy with development prospect and the synergistic benefit of the carbon capture and sequestration technology according to the economic loss of the energy-saving and coal price, the emission reduction and carbon price, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide, the inhalable particles, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide and the inhalable particles to the environment;
and changing the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy, respectively substituting the changed discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy into the emission reduction cost calculation formula, judging whether the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy can cause the increase or decrease of the emission reduction cost or not, and obtaining the corresponding increase and decrease so as to realize the sensitivity analysis of the emission reduction cost on the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy.
Has the advantages that:
1. a method for evaluating economic feasibility of a bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology comprises the steps of obtaining patent application documents and policy documents related to bioenergy and carbon dioxide capture and sequestration, obtaining a patent database according to titles, abstracts and keywords of the patent application documents, and obtaining a policy database according to full texts of the policy documents; the method comprises the steps of identifying theme distribution and word distribution of a database through machine learning according to a patent database and a policy database, identifying the BECCS technology with the inventive prospect according to the theme distribution and the word distribution of the database, constructing an energy-saving and emission-reducing benefit evaluation framework through an energy-saving supply curve, evaluating the energy-saving and emission-reducing benefits of the BECCS technology through the energy-saving and emission-reducing benefit evaluation framework, and having the advantages of being comprehensive, accurate, strong in prospect and the like.
2. A system for evaluating the economic feasibility of bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies comprises a file acquisition module, a database acquisition module, a machine learning module, a technology identification module, a judgment module, a first evaluation module and a second evaluation module; acquiring patent application files and policy files related to capture and sealing of bioenergy and carbon dioxide by a file acquisition module, acquiring a patent database by a database acquisition module according to titles, abstracts and keywords of the patent application files, and acquiring a policy database according to the full text of the policy files; the machine learning module is adopted to recognize the topic distribution and the word distribution of the database through machine learning according to the patent database and the policy database, the technology recognition module and the judgment module recognize the BECCS technology with development prospect according to the topic distribution and the word distribution of the database, finally, an energy-saving and emission-reducing benefit evaluation frame is constructed through the two evaluation modules according to an energy-saving supply curve, and the energy-saving and emission-reducing benefit evaluation frame evaluates the energy-saving and emission-reducing benefits of the BECCS technology, so that the machine learning system has the advantages of being comprehensive, accurate, strong in prospect and the like.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating the economic feasibility of the BECCS technology of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a block diagram of the BECCS technical economic feasibility assessment system of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a frame diagram of the BECCS technology energy conservation and emission reduction benefit evaluation of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a graph of emission reduction cost and emission reduction potential output for the BECCS technique of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a diagram of the analysis of the profit-loss equilibrium coal price and the profit-loss equilibrium carbon price of the BECCS technology of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a diagram of a BECCS technology synergy analysis of the present invention;
FIG. 7(a) is a graph of a sensitivity analysis of emission reduction cost versus current exposure for the BECCS technique of the present invention;
FIG. 7(b) is a graph of sensitivity of emission reduction cost to carbon price for the present invention BECCS technology;
FIG. 7(c) is a graph of a sensitivity of emission reduction costs to government subsidies for the BECCS technology of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical solutions better understood by those skilled in the art, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application.
Example one
As shown in fig. 1, a method for evaluating the economic feasibility of bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies, comprising the following steps:
s1: obtaining patent application documents and policy documents related to the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies; optionally, the patent application document and the policy document specifically include: keywords include bioenergy and carbon dioxide capture and storage, bioenergy, biofuel, negative emissions or carbon capture and storage patent applications, keywords include policy documents for biomass power generation.
It should be noted that the patent application document is obtained through a Derman database of the core set of Web of Science database, and the policy document is obtained through a Cervus elaphus Ching database.
S2: obtaining a patent database through word segmentation operation based on the title, abstract and key words of the patent application file; meanwhile, a policy database is obtained through word segmentation operation based on the file content of the policy file;
s3: obtaining the subject distribution and the word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology from the patent database and the policy database by adopting a machine learning mode, and specifically comprises the following steps:
creating a DT matrix according to the patent database and the policy database;
and constructing a Dirichlet distribution topic model according to the DT matrix to obtain topic distribution and word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology.
S4: identifying an energy-saving technology with a negative emission effect in a patent database and a policy database according to the theme distribution and the word distribution;
s5: taking at least 3 related patents as judgment standards with development prospects, and acquiring bioenergy with development prospects and a carbon capture and sequestration technology from the energy-saving technology;
s6: according to the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospect, the energy-saving and emission-reducing cost and the energy-saving and emission-reducing potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospect are evaluated through an energy-saving supply curve, and specifically the method comprises the following steps:
s61: constructing an energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework, wherein the energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework comprises emission-reduction cost and emission-reduction potential analysis, profit-loss balance analysis, synergistic benefit analysis and sensitivity analysis;
s62: according to the energy-saving and emission-reducing benefit evaluation framework, the energy-saving and emission-reducing cost and the energy-saving and emission-reducing potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospects are evaluated, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
obtaining the carbon value of the newly-built biomass power plant during profit-loss balance according to an emission reduction cost calculation formula;
estimating the biological energy with development prospect and the synergistic benefit of the carbon capture and sequestration technology according to the economic loss of the energy-saving and coal price, the emission reduction and carbon price, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide, the inhalable particles, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide and the inhalable particles to the environment;
and changing the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy, respectively substituting the changed discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy into the emission reduction cost calculation formula, judging whether the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy can cause the increase or decrease of the emission reduction cost or not, and obtaining the corresponding increase and decrease so as to realize the sensitivity analysis of the emission reduction cost on the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy.
S7: and evaluating the energy saving and emission reduction benefits of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospect according to the energy saving and emission reduction cost and the energy saving and emission reduction potential.
Example two
Based on the above embodiments, the invention provides an evaluation system for economic feasibility of biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies, which comprises a file acquisition module, a database acquisition module, a machine learning module, a technology identification module, a judgment module, a first evaluation module and a second evaluation module.
The file acquisition module is used for acquiring patent application files and policy files related to the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology; optionally, the patent application document and the policy document specifically include: keywords include bioenergy and carbon dioxide capture and storage, bioenergy, biofuel, negative emissions or carbon capture and storage patent applications, keywords include policy documents for biomass power generation.
It should be noted that the patent application document is obtained through a Derman database of the core set of Web of Science database, and the policy document is obtained through a Cervus elaphus Ching database.
The database acquisition module is used for obtaining a patent database through word segmentation operation based on the title, abstract and key words of the patent application file; meanwhile, a policy database is obtained through word segmentation operation based on the file content of the policy file;
the machine learning module is used for acquiring the subject distribution and the word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology from the patent database and the policy database in a machine learning mode; the machine learning module comprises a matrix acquisition unit and a distribution acquisition unit; the matrix acquisition unit is used for creating a DT matrix according to the patent database and the policy database; the distribution obtaining unit is used for constructing a Dirichlet distribution topic model according to the DT matrix to obtain topic distribution and word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology.
The technology identification module is used for identifying energy-saving technologies with negative emission effects in a patent database and a policy database according to the theme distribution and the word distribution;
the judgment module is used for acquiring bioenergy with development prospect and a carbon capture and sequestration technology from the energy-saving technology by taking not less than 3 related patents as judgment standards with development prospect;
as shown in fig. 3, the first evaluation module is configured to evaluate the energy saving and emission reduction cost and the energy saving and emission reduction potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with a development prospect through an energy saving supply curve according to the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with a development prospect; the first evaluation module comprises a framework construction unit and an evaluation unit;
the framework construction unit is used for constructing an energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework, wherein the energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework comprises emission-reduction cost and emission-reduction potential analysis, profit-loss balance analysis, synergistic benefit analysis and sensitivity analysis;
the evaluation unit is used for evaluating the energy saving and emission reducing cost and the energy saving and emission reducing potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospect according to the energy saving and emission reducing benefit evaluation framework, and specifically comprises the following steps:
obtaining the carbon value of the newly-built biomass power plant during profit-loss balance according to an emission reduction cost calculation formula;
estimating the biological energy with development prospect and the synergistic benefit of the carbon capture and sequestration technology according to the economic loss of the energy-saving and coal price, the emission reduction and carbon price, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide, the inhalable particles, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide and the inhalable particles to the environment;
and changing the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy, respectively substituting the changed discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy into the emission reduction cost calculation formula, judging whether the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy can cause the increase or decrease of the emission reduction cost or not, and obtaining the corresponding increase and decrease so as to realize the sensitivity analysis of the emission reduction cost on the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy.
And the second evaluation module is used for evaluating the energy saving and emission reduction benefits of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospects according to the energy saving and emission reduction cost and the energy saving and emission reduction potential.
Fig. 4 is a diagram of output of emission reduction cost and emission reduction potential of the BECCS technology in an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 4, a column width in the diagram represents a technology emission reduction potential, a column height represents a technology emission reduction cost, and a technology with an emission reduction cost lower than a critical carbon value represents that the current stage has emission reduction economic feasibility, otherwise, the current stage does not have emission reduction economic feasibility.
Fig. 5 is an analysis diagram of profit-loss balance coal price and profit-loss balance carbon price of BECCS technology according to an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 5, the shape in fig. 5 represents a combination of coal price, carbon price, and critical carbon price, different shapes represent different carbon dioxide price levels, and black triangles, black squares, black diamonds, and black circles represent combination points when carbon dioxide prices are 30 yuan/ton, 43 yuan/ton, 116 yuan/ton, and 186 yuan/ton, respectively.
Fig. 6 is a diagram of a BECCS technology synergistic benefit analysis in an embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 6, 3 lines in the diagram respectively represent critical price lines for three cases where only energy saving benefits, energy saving and carbon dioxide emission reduction benefits, and energy saving and carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emission reduction synergistic benefits are considered, where an area above the critical price lines is a cost effective area, and the cost effective area is expanded as the synergistic benefits are brought into a cost calculation range.
Fig. 7(a), 7(b), and 7(c) are graphs of sensitivity analysis of emission reduction cost of BECCS technology to discount rate, carbon price, and government subsidy, respectively, according to an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 7(a), 7(b), and 7(c), where different lines indicate emission reduction cost of technology at different levels of depreciation rate, carbon price, and government subsidy;
specifically, the carbon dioxide price level when the depreciation rate changes to take a value in fig. 7(a) is 30 yuan/ton, the government patch is 0, the depreciation rate when the carbon price changes to take a value in fig. 7(b) is 5%, the government patch is 0, the depreciation rate when the government patch changes to take a value in fig. 7(c) is 5%, and the carbon dioxide price level is 30 yuan/ton.
In summary, the invention discloses a method and a system for evaluating economic feasibility of bioenergy and Carbon dioxide Capture and sequestration technology (Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage, BECCS), wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring patent application documents and policy documents related to capture and sequestration of bioenergy and carbon dioxide; obtaining the title, abstract and key words of the patent application file according to the patent application file to obtain a patent database; identifying theme distribution and word distribution thereof through machine learning according to the patent database; identifying an energy-saving technology with a negative emission effect in a patent database according to the theme distribution and the word distribution thereof; according to the policy file, obtaining the title and the content of the policy file to obtain a policy database; identifying subject distribution and word distribution thereof through machine learning according to the policy database; identifying an energy-saving technology with a negative emission effect in a policy database according to the theme distribution and the word distribution thereof; according to the energy-saving technology with the negative emission effect in the patent database and the policy database, identifying the biological energy and carbon dioxide trapping and sealing technology with development prospect; according to the biological energy and carbon dioxide trapping and sealing technology with development prospect, the energy-saving and emission-reducing cost and the energy-saving and emission-reducing potential of the technology are calculated through an energy-saving supply curve; according to the energy-saving and emission-reducing cost and the energy-saving and emission-reducing potential of the energy-saving supply curve calculation technology, outputting an energy-saving and emission-reducing benefit analysis chart of the biological energy and carbon dioxide capture and sequestration technology; therefore, the method can overcome the defects of strong one-sidedness, weak foresight and the like of the traditional method.
The present invention may be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential attributes thereof, and it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made herein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined in the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for assessing the economic viability of bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies, comprising the steps of:
s1: obtaining patent application documents and policy documents related to the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies;
s2: obtaining a patent database through word segmentation operation based on the title, abstract and key words of the patent application file; meanwhile, a policy database is obtained through word segmentation operation based on the file content of the policy file;
s3: obtaining the subject distribution and word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology from the patent database and the policy database by adopting a machine learning mode;
s4: identifying an energy-saving technology with a negative emission effect in a patent database and a policy database according to the theme distribution and the word distribution;
s5: taking at least 3 related patents as judgment standards with development prospects, and acquiring bioenergy with development prospects and a carbon capture and sequestration technology from the energy-saving technology;
s6: according to the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with the development prospect, the energy-saving emission-reduction cost and the energy-saving emission-reduction potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with the development prospect are evaluated through an energy-saving supply curve;
s7: and evaluating the energy saving and emission reduction benefits of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospect according to the energy saving and emission reduction cost and the energy saving and emission reduction potential.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the patent application and policy documents related to bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration are specifically:
keywords include bioenergy and carbon dioxide capture and storage, bioenergy, biofuel, negative emissions or carbon capture and storage patent applications, keywords include policy documents for biomass power generation.
3. The method for evaluating the economic feasibility of bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies as claimed in claim 1, wherein the patent application documents are obtained from the Derman database of the core set of the Web of Science database, and the policy documents are obtained from the Chi database of Cervus elaphus L.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the step S3 of obtaining the subject distribution and word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology from the patent database and policy database by machine learning comprises:
creating a DT matrix according to the patent database and the policy database;
and constructing a Dirichlet distribution topic model according to the DT matrix to obtain topic distribution and word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology.
5. The method for evaluating the economic feasibility of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology according to claim 1, wherein the method for evaluating the energy saving and emission reduction cost and the energy saving and emission reduction potential of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with a development prospect comprises the following steps:
s61: constructing an energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework, wherein the energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework comprises emission-reduction cost and emission-reduction potential analysis, profit-loss balance analysis, synergistic benefit analysis and sensitivity analysis;
s62: according to the energy-saving and emission-reducing benefit evaluation framework, the energy-saving and emission-reducing cost and the energy-saving and emission-reducing potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospects are evaluated, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
obtaining the carbon value of the newly-built biomass power plant during profit-loss balance according to an emission reduction cost calculation formula;
estimating the biological energy with development prospect and the synergistic benefit of the carbon capture and sequestration technology according to the economic loss of the energy-saving and coal price, the emission reduction and carbon price, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide, the inhalable particles, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide and the inhalable particles to the environment;
and changing the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy, respectively substituting the changed discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy into the emission reduction cost calculation formula, judging whether the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy can cause the increase or decrease of the emission reduction cost or not, and obtaining the corresponding increase and decrease so as to realize the sensitivity analysis of the emission reduction cost on the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy.
6. A system for evaluating economic feasibility of biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies is characterized by comprising a file acquisition module, a database acquisition module, a machine learning module, a technology identification module, a judgment module, a first evaluation module and a second evaluation module;
the file acquisition module is used for acquiring patent application files and policy files related to the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology;
the database acquisition module is used for obtaining a patent database through word segmentation operation based on the title, abstract and key words of the patent application file; meanwhile, a policy database is obtained through word segmentation operation based on the file content of the policy file;
the machine learning module is used for acquiring the subject distribution and the word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology from the patent database and the policy database in a machine learning mode;
the technology identification module is used for identifying energy-saving technologies with negative emission effects in a patent database and a policy database according to the theme distribution and the word distribution;
the judgment module is used for acquiring bioenergy with development prospect and a carbon capture and sequestration technology from the energy-saving technology by taking not less than 3 related patents as judgment standards with development prospect;
the first evaluation module is used for evaluating the energy-saving emission-reducing cost and the energy-saving emission-reducing potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with the development prospect through an energy-saving supply curve according to the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with the development prospect;
and the second evaluation module is used for evaluating the energy saving and emission reduction benefits of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospects according to the energy saving and emission reduction cost and the energy saving and emission reduction potential.
7. The system for assessing the economic viability of bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies as claimed in claim 6, wherein said patent application documents and policy documents relating to bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technologies are in particular:
keywords include bioenergy and carbon dioxide capture and storage, bioenergy, biofuel, negative emissions or carbon capture and storage patent applications, keywords include policy documents for biomass power generation.
8. The system for assessing the economic viability of a bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology according to claim 6 wherein the patent application is obtained by the Derman database of the core set of the Web of Science database and the policy is obtained by the Chi database of Cervus elaphus L.
9. The system for assessing the economic viability of a bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology according to claim 6, wherein said machine learning module comprises a matrix acquisition unit and a distribution acquisition unit;
the matrix acquisition unit is used for creating a DT matrix according to the patent database and the policy database;
the distribution obtaining unit is used for constructing a Dirichlet distribution topic model according to the DT matrix to obtain topic distribution and word distribution of the bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology.
10. The system for assessing the economic viability of a bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration technology according to claim 6, wherein said first assessment module comprises a framework construction unit and an assessment unit;
the framework construction unit is used for constructing an energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework, wherein the energy-saving emission-reduction benefit evaluation framework comprises emission-reduction cost and emission-reduction potential analysis, profit-loss balance analysis, synergistic benefit analysis and sensitivity analysis;
the evaluation unit is used for evaluating the energy saving and emission reducing cost and the energy saving and emission reducing potential of the biological energy and carbon capture and sequestration technology with development prospect according to the energy saving and emission reducing benefit evaluation framework, and specifically comprises the following steps:
obtaining the carbon value of the newly-built biomass power plant during profit-loss balance according to an emission reduction cost calculation formula;
estimating the biological energy with development prospect and the synergistic benefit of the carbon capture and sequestration technology according to the economic loss of the energy-saving and coal price, the emission reduction and carbon price, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide, the inhalable particles, the carbon dioxide, the sulfur dioxide, the nitrogen oxide and the inhalable particles to the environment;
and changing the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy, respectively substituting the changed discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy into the emission reduction cost calculation formula, judging whether the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy can cause the increase or decrease of the emission reduction cost or not, and obtaining the corresponding increase and decrease so as to realize the sensitivity analysis of the emission reduction cost on the discount rate, the carbon price and the government subsidy.
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