CN113095536A - Electric power market auxiliary service green certificate compensation method and system - Google Patents

Electric power market auxiliary service green certificate compensation method and system Download PDF

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CN113095536A
CN113095536A CN202010020927.7A CN202010020927A CN113095536A CN 113095536 A CN113095536 A CN 113095536A CN 202010020927 A CN202010020927 A CN 202010020927A CN 113095536 A CN113095536 A CN 113095536A
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袁浩
刘秋华
薛必克
吕建虎
杨争林
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides a green certificate compensation method and a green certificate compensation system for auxiliary service of an electric power market, which are used for acquiring the actual generated energy of the day and the predicted transaction generated energy of the day in the past; calculating deviation amount according to the current actual power generation amount and the current predicted transaction power generation amount data; and compensating the electric power market auxiliary service according to the deviation amount. The problem of unfair occupation of renewable energy power generation on auxiliary service resources is solved, and fair development of an auxiliary service market is promoted.

Description

Electric power market auxiliary service green certificate compensation method and system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of power markets, in particular to a power market auxiliary service green license compensation method and system.
Background
The quota system is combined with green certificate transaction, and the functions of finding out the real price of the renewable energy, reflecting the currency value of the external characteristics of the renewable energy, guiding the investment of the renewable energy and the optimization planning of a power grid, and stimulating the production and consumption of the renewable energy can be achieved. Under the condition of large-scale renewable energy grid connection, the power system needs conventional energy to provide enough flexibility to deal with uncertainty of renewable energy output, so a perfect auxiliary service market needs to be established, and the enthusiasm of a market main body for providing flexible auxiliary service is stimulated. At present, auxiliary services in China are shared and complemented according to power generation internet surfing cost, the expenses are collected regularly, the compensation of the auxiliary services in different periods is the same, no provisions about renewable energy power generation management exist, quantitative differences of the quality and performance of the auxiliary services are lacked, and fairness is difficult to embody. However, the requirement of massive renewable energy access in China currently causes the auxiliary service cost of the power system to be greatly increased, if the cost is completely unfair borne by the whole system according to the existing auxiliary service cost compensation mechanism, a new auxiliary service cost allocation and compensation mechanism is needed to encourage a system service provider to provide auxiliary service for renewable energy access.
Under the influence of weather and environment, the output of renewable energy sources has the characteristics of volatility, uncertainty and the like, especially the output of wind energy and solar power generation cannot be accurately predicted, and the predicted error amount is further increased along with the increase of the installed scale. The variation probability of the wind energy and the solar energy power generation near the predicted value approximately follows normal distribution, and the prediction accuracy directly influences the supply requirement of auxiliary services. The characteristics of renewable energy sources can cause the reduction of the proportion of the rotational inertia of an accessed power system, the increase of the capacity and mileage of AGC (automatic generation control) control frequency modulation, the expansion of peak-valley difference of an electric quantity balance market, the improvement of equipment failure rate and the like, thereby increasing the cost of auxiliary service. With the large-scale development of renewable energy power generation, the demand of the system for the auxiliary service of the conventional power supply is increased, and whether the conventional power supply can provide enough auxiliary service is crucial to the development of renewable energy power generation, although the effect is not particularly easy to accurately and clearly evaluate and is generally underestimated in the actual operation process. It is necessary to take full account of the additional cost of its consumption as a renewable energy source.
The quota system is a mandatory provision made by a country or a region in a legal manner on the share of the renewable energy power generation market, and requires that the minimum proportion of the renewable energy power is included in the power generated, distributed or consumed by a manufacturer, a power grid or a user, and an effective renewable energy power generation combination is defined. Research shows that the quota system not only can promote the development of renewable energy industry and improve the investment and output of green electricity, but also can stimulate the technical innovation of green power plants and reduce the power generation cost; thereby optimizing the energy structure and improving the social welfare level. The quota system can achieve the development goal of the renewable energy industry at lower social cost and administrative cost. The green certificate system is a matching system implemented by quota system, wherein the green certificate is a certificate which can be traded and can be converted into currency, and represents a certain amount of green electricity. The green certificate demand is formed by a quota bearer, and the supply is formed by a green power plant merchant; demand and supply together determine the green certificate price. Regarding the price of the green certificate, the green power plant manufacturer includes the difference between the cost of generating electricity by renewable energy sources and the cost of generating electricity by non-renewable energy sources, and the environmental positive effect caused by the fact that the former replaces the latter is reflected from the aspect of an energy system. The green certificate reflects the added value of the renewable energy, the electricity selling side purchases the green certificate from the green certificate market under the current market condition, and the power generator can determine the development strategy of the renewable energy according to the green certificate market price and the cost for building the renewable energy power generation, so that the real cost of the renewable energy is found. The quota-based green certificate trading market can weaken the information asymmetry and discover the real price of renewable energy through market competition. However, renewable energy consumption needs to fully mobilize thermal power and hydropower to provide auxiliary service potential. The obligation of green power generation is embodied by green certificate added value, and the service cost of auxiliary renewable energy sources safely connected to the power grid, namely all the cost from green power generation to complete consumption, not only the production cost of green power, is included. The target requirement of quota system is the benign consumption of renewable energy system, not the accumulation of simple green energy source which sacrifices the stability of power grid and the quality of electric energy, therefore the incentive requirement generated by quota system should also include the auxiliary service which provides the safety quality of electric energy supply.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects of the prior art, the invention provides an electric power market auxiliary service green license compensation method, which is improved by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a formally submitted prediction transaction power generation curve of the current day and an acquired actual power generation curve of the current day;
calculating the electric quantity corresponding to the curve deviation according to the current actual power generation curve and the current predicted transaction power generation curve data;
compensating the electric power market auxiliary service according to the electric quantity corresponding to the curve deviation;
and the electric quantity corresponding to the curve deviation is the deviation quantity.
Preferably, the calculating a curve deviation amount according to the current-day actual power generation curve and the current-day predicted transaction power generation curve data includes:
when the actual power generation amount at a certain time point of the day is larger than the predicted transaction power generation amount of the day, subtracting the predicted transaction power generation amount of the day from the actual power generation amount at the certain time point of the day to obtain a forward deviation amount;
when the actual power generation amount at a certain time point of the day is smaller than the predicted transaction power generation amount of the day, subtracting the predicted transaction power generation amount from the actual power generation amount at the certain time point of the day to obtain a reverse deviation amount;
and calculating deviation values of all time points of the current day to obtain the total curve deviation value of the current day.
Preferably, the deviation amount is calculated by the following equation:
Figure BDA0002360723890000021
in the formula, Q (d, i) is the actual power generation amount, P (d, i) represents the predicted transaction power generation amount, d represents the date, i represents the time point, S represents the deviation amount, and n is the number of time points.
Preferably, the value of the number n of the time points is determined by the acquisition frequency.
Preferably, the calculating the corresponding green license number according to the curve deviation amount to compensate the electric power market auxiliary service includes:
calculating corresponding green certificates according to the deviation amount and the green certificate proportion coefficient;
for compensating for power market assistance services.
Preferably, the calculation formula of the green certificate is as follows:
Gs.d=S*Kr
wherein Kr represents the deviation electric quantity green syndrome proportionality coefficient, S represents the deviation quantity, and Gs.d represents the green syndrome.
Based on the same inventive concept, the invention also provides an electric power market auxiliary service green license compensation system, and the improvement is that the system comprises: the device comprises a power generation data acquisition module, a deviation calculation module and a compensation module;
the power generation data acquisition module is used for acquiring a formally submitted prediction transaction power generation curve of the current day in the past and an acquired actual power generation curve of the current day;
the deviation calculation module is used for calculating curve deviation amount according to the current actual power generation curve and the current predicted transaction power generation curve data, and integrating the electric quantity at each moment to obtain the total integral deviation amount of the current day;
and the compensation module is used for calculating the corresponding green certificate quantity according to the deviation amount and compensating the electric power market auxiliary service.
Preferably, the deviation calculating module includes: a positive bias unit, a negative bias unit and a total bias unit;
the positive deviation unit is used for subtracting the predicted transaction generating capacity at the time point of the day from the actual generating capacity at the time point of the day to obtain a positive deviation amount when the actual generating capacity at the time point of the day is larger than the predicted transaction generating capacity at the time point of the day;
the negative deviation unit is used for subtracting the predicted transaction generating capacity at the time point of the day from the actual generating capacity at the time point of the day to obtain a reverse deviation amount when the actual generating capacity at the time point of the day is smaller than the predicted transaction generating capacity at the time point of the day;
and the total deviation unit is used for calculating the deviation amount of each time point on the current day to obtain the total curve deviation amount on the current day.
Preferably, the compensation module further comprises a green certificate unit and a service unit;
the green certificate unit is used for calculating the corresponding green certificate quantity according to the deviation amount and the green certificate proportion coefficient;
the service unit is used for compensating the auxiliary service of the electric power market.
Compared with the closest prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention discloses a green certificate compensation method for auxiliary service of an electric power market, which comprises the following steps: acquiring the actual power generation amount of the day and the predicted trading power generation amount of the day before the day; calculating deviation amount according to the current actual power generation amount and the current predicted transaction power generation amount data; according to the deviation amount, the auxiliary service of the power market is compensated, and the renewable energy power generator is promoted to improve the prediction accuracy of self output while the auxiliary service provider is stimulated to provide high-quality auxiliary service.
A green certificate compensation method for auxiliary service of an electric power market indirectly compensates an auxiliary service provider through green certificate value, solves the problem of unfair occupation of auxiliary service resources by renewable energy power generation, promotes fair development of the auxiliary service market, and improves electric energy quality under the current renewable energy quota scheme.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flowchart of a power market auxiliary service green license compensation method provided by the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the relationship between the deviation of the prediction curve and green evidence provided by the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of renewable energy and auxiliary services participating in a green license transaction according to the present invention;
fig. 4 is a structural diagram of the electric power market auxiliary service green license compensation system provided by the invention.
Detailed Description
The following describes embodiments of the present invention in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. The method for subtracting the green certificate corresponding to the deviation of the actual power generation curve and the predicted curve of the renewable energy is adopted, the system design that the green certificate can be obtained by the power generation amount of all the renewable energy is converted into the method for obtaining the green certificate corresponding to the power generation amount subtracted by the deviation by the renewable energy provider, and the green certificate corresponding to the subtracted deviation is used for compensating the auxiliary service. The method adopts the renewable energy power generation curve predicted in the day to participate in green syndrome calculation. The implementation principle and a schematic diagram of the relationship between the deviation of the prediction curve and the green certificate are shown in fig. 2, wherein firstly, in fig. 2, the actual renewable energy power generation amount and the corresponding green certificate are shown, and the basic principle of generating the green certificate quantity according to the renewable energy power generation amount is unchanged; showing the deviation relation between the power generation prediction curve and the actual power generation curve; and thirdly, reflecting the electric quantity relation corresponding to the curve deviation.
Example 1:
as shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides a power market auxiliary service green license compensation method, which comprises the following steps:
step 1: acquiring a forecasted transaction power generation curve of the day before and formally submitted and an acquired actual power generation curve of the day;
step 2: calculating curve deviation amount according to the current actual power generation curve and the current predicted transaction power generation curve data;
and step 3: and calculating the corresponding green certificate number according to the curve deviation value, and compensating the electric power market auxiliary service.
The step 1 comprises the following steps:
firstly, a forecasted transaction power generation curve of the day before the date submitted formally and an acquired actual power generation curve of the day need to be acquired, and then the following calculation is carried out by the two curves.
The step 2 comprises the following steps:
for convenience of description, the positive deviation electric quantity may be directly deducted from the actual electric quantity according to a ratio of 1:1, the negative deviation electric quantity is deducted from the actual electric quantity according to a ratio of 1:1, and the actual proportionality coefficient may be adjusted according to the characteristics of different renewable energy sources.
The step 3 comprises the following steps:
and fourthly, reflecting the quantity of green certificates which can be obtained by the renewable energy power generator by adopting a deviation quantity deduction method and the quantity of green certificates which are used for compensating the auxiliary service and are counted by the deviation quantity deduction. According to the method for calculating green licenses based on the principle of subtracting the deviation amount of the prediction curve as described in fig. 2, as shown in the formula, gr.d is the number of green licenses available from daily renewable energy; gs.d number of acquired green certificates for daily supplementary service. The green certificate corresponding to the actual power generation curve Q (d, i) is the sum of Gr.d and Gs.d.
Figure BDA0002360723890000051
Figure BDA0002360723890000052
The curve designed in the formula was collected every five minutes. Q (d, i) is an actual power generation curve, P (d, i) represents a prediction curve, d represents a date, i represents one point every five minutes (288 points/day), Kr represents a deviation electric quantity green scale factor, and reference is made to section 2.2 analysis for adjusting the quantitative relationship between auxiliary services and different renewable energy sources in different regions.
As shown in fig. 3, the renewable energy provider obtains green license through renewable energy power generation, wherein the green license compensation caused by the predicted deviation power is provided to the auxiliary service provider for stimulating the auxiliary service provider to provide service for the renewable energy consumption.
Example 2:
based on the same inventive concept, the present invention further provides an electric power market auxiliary service green license compensation system, as shown in fig. 4, including: the device comprises a power generation data acquisition module, a deviation calculation module and a compensation module;
the power generation data acquisition module is used for acquiring a formally submitted prediction transaction power generation curve of the current day in the past and an acquired actual power generation curve of the current day;
the deviation calculation module is used for calculating curve deviation amount according to the current actual power generation curve and the current predicted transaction power generation curve data, and integrating the electric quantity at each moment to obtain the total integral deviation amount of the current day;
and the compensation module is used for calculating the corresponding green certificate quantity according to the deviation amount and compensating the electric power market auxiliary service.
Preferably, the deviation calculating module includes: a positive bias unit, a negative bias unit and a total bias unit;
the positive deviation unit is used for subtracting the predicted transaction generating capacity at the time point of the day from the actual generating capacity at the time point of the day to obtain a positive deviation amount when the actual generating capacity at the time point of the day is larger than the predicted transaction generating capacity at the time point of the day;
the negative deviation unit is used for subtracting the predicted transaction generating capacity at the time point of the day from the actual generating capacity at the time point of the day to obtain a reverse deviation amount when the actual generating capacity at the time point of the day is smaller than the predicted transaction generating capacity at the time point of the day;
and the total deviation unit is used for calculating the deviation amount of each time point on the current day to obtain the total curve deviation amount on the current day.
Preferably, the compensation module further comprises a green certificate unit and a service unit;
the green certificate unit is used for calculating the corresponding green certificate quantity according to the deviation amount and the green certificate proportion coefficient;
the service unit is used for compensating the auxiliary service of the electric power market.
The invention is designed in such a way that renewable energy sources participate in market trading day before, and the prediction error of the renewable energy sources day before is borne by a frequency modulation and standby unit in the market. The renewable energy sources submit a day-ahead power generation prediction curve (P (d, i)) for calculating the number of green licenses, and after the day operation is finished, the number of green licenses Gs.d corresponding to the auxiliary service is calculated based on the actual power generation curve (Q (d, i)) and the prediction curve (P (d, i)).
The green certificate Gr.d can be traded in a green certificate market for the renewable energy source provider to obtain the green certificate, and the Gs.d can be distributed to the auxiliary service provider for the renewable energy source power generation sharing to compensate the green certificate of the auxiliary service, and the green certificate market trading is used as a reward for providing the auxiliary service.
The method uses the comparison deviation of the day-ahead prediction curve and the actual power generation curve as a basis, but in practical application, the method is not limited to the day-ahead prediction curve, and can also adopt prediction curves of different cycle levels as required to flexibly process and compensate different auxiliary service varieties.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
It should be noted that the above-mentioned embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present application and not for limiting the scope of protection thereof, and although the present application is described in detail with reference to the above-mentioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that after reading the present application, they can make various changes, modifications or equivalents to the specific embodiments of the application, but these changes, modifications or equivalents are all within the scope of protection of the claims to be filed.

Claims (9)

1. A power market auxiliary service green certificate compensation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a forecasted transaction power generation curve of the day before and formally submitted and an acquired actual power generation curve of the day;
calculating curve deviation amount according to the current actual power generation curve and the current predicted transaction power generation curve data;
and calculating the corresponding green certificate number according to the curve deviation value, and compensating the electric power market auxiliary service.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein said calculating a curve deviation amount based on said current day actual power generation curve and said current day predicted trade power generation curve data comprises:
when the actual power generation amount at a certain time point of the day is larger than the predicted transaction power generation amount at a certain time point of the day, subtracting the predicted transaction power generation amount at a certain time point of the day from the actual power generation amount at the certain time point of the day to obtain a forward deviation amount;
when the actual power generation amount at a certain time point of the day is smaller than the predicted transaction power generation amount at a certain time point of the day, subtracting the predicted transaction power generation amount at a certain time point of the day from the actual power generation amount at the certain time point of the day to obtain a reverse deviation amount;
and calculating deviation values of all time points of the current day to obtain the total curve deviation value of the current day.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the deviation is calculated as follows:
Figure FDA0002360723880000011
in the formula, Q (d, i) is the actual power generation amount, P (d, i) represents the predicted transaction power generation amount, d represents the date, i represents the time point, S represents the deviation amount, and n is the number of time points.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the value of the number n of time points is determined by an acquisition frequency.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein said calculating a corresponding green license number from said curve deviation amount to compensate for power market assistance comprises:
calculating corresponding green certificates according to the deviation amount and the green certificate proportion coefficient;
for compensating for power market assistance services.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the green certificate is calculated as follows:
Gs.d=S*Kr
wherein Kr represents the deviation electric quantity green syndrome proportionality coefficient, S represents the deviation quantity, and Gs.d represents the green syndrome.
7. An electric power market auxiliary service green license compensation system, comprising: the device comprises a power generation data acquisition module, a deviation calculation module and a compensation module;
the power generation data acquisition module is used for acquiring a formally submitted prediction transaction power generation curve of the current day in the past and an acquired actual power generation curve of the current day;
the deviation calculation module is used for calculating curve deviation amount according to the current actual power generation curve and the current predicted transaction power generation curve data;
and the compensation module is used for calculating the corresponding green certificate quantity according to the deviation amount and compensating the electric power market auxiliary service.
8. The system of claim 7, wherein the deviation calculation module comprises: a positive bias unit, a negative bias unit and a total bias unit;
the positive deviation unit is used for subtracting the predicted transaction power generation amount of the certain time point on the day from the actual power generation amount of the certain time point on the day to obtain a positive deviation amount when the actual power generation amount of the certain time point on the day is larger than the predicted transaction power generation amount of the certain time point on the day;
the negative deviation unit is used for subtracting the predicted transaction power generation amount of the certain time point on the day from the actual power generation amount of the certain time point on the day to obtain a reverse deviation amount when the actual power generation amount of the certain time point on the day is smaller than the predicted transaction power generation amount of the certain time point on the day;
and the total deviation unit is used for calculating the deviation amount of each time point on the current day to obtain the total curve deviation amount on the current day.
9. The system of claim 7, wherein the compensation module further comprises a green certificate unit and a service unit
The green certificate unit is used for calculating the corresponding green certificate quantity according to the deviation amount and the green certificate proportion coefficient;
the service unit is used for compensating the auxiliary service of the electric power market.
CN202010020927.7A 2020-01-09 2020-01-09 Electric power market auxiliary service green certificate compensation method and system Pending CN113095536A (en)

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