CN113065215A - Method and device for predicting operation situation of expressway - Google Patents
Method and device for predicting operation situation of expressway Download PDFInfo
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- CN113065215A CN113065215A CN202110303036.7A CN202110303036A CN113065215A CN 113065215 A CN113065215 A CN 113065215A CN 202110303036 A CN202110303036 A CN 202110303036A CN 113065215 A CN113065215 A CN 113065215A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
- G06F30/10—Geometric CAD
- G06F30/18—Network design, e.g. design based on topological or interconnect aspects of utility systems, piping, heating ventilation air conditioning [HVAC] or cabling
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
- G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
- G08G1/0125—Traffic data processing
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F2111/00—Details relating to CAD techniques
- G06F2111/02—CAD in a network environment, e.g. collaborative CAD or distributed simulation
Abstract
The invention relates to a method and a device for predicting an operation situation of an expressway. Based on the situation prediction method, the driving scenes of a plurality of drivers on the expressway to be predicted are simulated through the real driving simulation of the traffic simulation system, the obtained prediction data are close to the real expressway situation, the interference of subjective factors or accidental factors on the expressway situation prediction is avoided, and the accuracy of the expressway operation situation prediction is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of traffic management, in particular to a method and a device for predicting an operation situation of a highway.
Background
In order to ensure that the expressway runs safely and smoothly, an expressway operation manager needs to monitor the running condition of the expressway at any time, and adopts expressway management and control measures on events which occur or possibly occur and affect the expressway operation so as to ensure the safety and smoothness of the expressway and the driving safety. Under normal circumstances, special traffic guarantees such as holiday peaks, traffic accident handling, emergency and rescue/guard, and the like need to prejudge the situation of the expressway, and prepare corresponding emergency expressway management and control and traffic guarantee plans. To properly manage and control the highway in a timely manner, the operation situation of the highway needs to be accurately predicted. The method is very important for preventing accidents, accurately handling traffic accidents and reducing accident loss, and can ensure the operation safety of the highway, improve the service level of the highway and increase the operation income of the highway.
At present, the traditional methods for predicting the situation of the expressway mainly comprise three methods: first, estimation-future traffic flow and its distribution are estimated, typically by personal experience; secondly, supposing-a method for predicting the situation of the expressway by taking the social and economic environment change as a parameter by generally adopting historical synchronization data as a reference; and thirdly, calculating, namely representing the operation rule of the highway traffic flow by a mathematical model to calculate the situation prediction of the highway.
However, the situation prediction method for estimating the future traffic flow and the distribution thereof according to personal experience is obviously lack of scientificity and normalcy, and has large influence of subjective factors; however, the situation prediction method using historical contemporaneous data as a reference is limited. Because the history can not be replayed, and the factors influencing the traffic situation evolution, such as traffic flow, flow composition, traffic space-time distribution, weather, highway conditions and the like, are difficult to completely reappear, the method for predicting the situation by taking the historical contemporaneous data as reference has certain analysis and reference functions, is used for predicting the situation, greatly reduces the accuracy rate, and is difficult to apply to traffic operation management; it is extremely difficult to use mathematical models to infer the situation. Traffic is a huge system, and factors influencing traffic situation are very many, so that a mathematical model for expressing the evolution of the traffic situation is very complicated; on the other hand, some small probability of sporadic factors may be very large for the evolution of traffic situation, for example, although only one novice driver in 1 ten thousand cars drives slowly, the probability of traffic congestion caused by the same is very large. This also illustrates the difficulty of using mathematical models to express the evolution of traffic situation and to implement methods for situation prediction.
In summary, it can be seen that the conventional method for predicting the situation of the expressway has the above drawbacks.
Disclosure of Invention
Therefore, it is necessary to provide a method and an apparatus for predicting an operation situation of a highway, aiming at the defects of the conventional method for predicting the situation of the highway.
A method for predicting the operation situation of a highway comprises the following steps:
acquiring traffic flow data and highway condition data of a highway to be predicted;
converting the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures;
loading traffic flow data and highway management and control measures into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, and obtaining prediction data for predicting the situation of the highway to be predicted; the highway management and control measures are adaptive to the traffic simulation system.
According to the method for predicting the operation situation of the expressway, the traffic flow data and the expressway condition data of the expressway to be predicted are obtained, the expressway condition data are converted into corresponding expressway control measures, and finally the traffic flow data and the expressway control measures are loaded into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, so that prediction data for predicting the situation of the expressway to be predicted are obtained. Based on the situation prediction method, the driving scenes of a plurality of drivers on the expressway to be predicted are simulated through the real driving simulation of the traffic simulation system, the obtained prediction data are close to the real expressway situation, the interference of subjective factors or accidental factors on the expressway situation prediction is avoided, and the accuracy of the expressway operation situation prediction is improved.
In one embodiment, the process of converting the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures includes the steps of:
and converting the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures according to the simulation operation requirements of the traffic simulation system.
In one embodiment, the highway management and control measures include speed limitation, vehicle restriction, or lane change.
In one embodiment, a process of loading traffic flow data and highway management and control measures into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation and obtaining prediction data for predicting a highway situation to be predicted includes the steps of:
loading traffic flow data and highway management and control measures to a traffic simulation system to instruct the traffic simulation system to control simulation personnel to drive a preset vehicle in a preset driving mode in a preset driving scene; the preset driving scene comprises a preset driving environment and a preset driving highway;
and acquiring operation data of driving executed by each simulated person as prediction data.
In one embodiment, the predictive data includes key operational indicators of future traffic situations.
In one embodiment, the key operation indicators include toll station entrance traffic flow, toll station exit traffic flow, block traffic flow between two toll stations, block travel time, block average speed, or congestion parameters.
In one embodiment, the traffic flow data comprises real-time vehicle traffic flow data of toll gate entrances, toll gate exits or portals between toll gates of the highway to be predicted;
the highway condition data includes highway fencing arrangement data or highway affected condition data.
An apparatus for predicting an operation situation of a highway, comprising:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring traffic flow data and highway condition data of a highway to be predicted;
the data conversion module is used for converting the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures;
the data deduction module is used for loading the traffic flow data and the highway management and control measures into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, and obtaining prediction data used for predicting the situation of the highway to be predicted; the highway management and control measures are adaptive to the traffic simulation system.
According to the expressway operation situation prediction device, the expressway condition data are converted into corresponding expressway control measures after the traffic flow data and the expressway condition data of the expressway to be predicted are obtained, and finally the traffic flow data and the expressway control measures are loaded into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, so that prediction data used for predicting the expressway situation to be predicted are obtained. Based on the situation prediction method, the driving scenes of a plurality of drivers on the expressway to be predicted are simulated through the real driving simulation of the traffic simulation system, the obtained prediction data are close to the real expressway situation, the interference of subjective factors or accidental factors on the expressway situation prediction is avoided, and the accuracy of the expressway operation situation prediction is improved.
A computer storage medium having stored thereon computer instructions which, when executed by a processor, implement the method for predicting highway operation situation of any of the above embodiments.
The computer storage medium obtains traffic flow data and highway condition data of a highway to be predicted, converts the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures, and finally loads the traffic flow data and the highway management and control measures into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, so that prediction data for predicting the situation of the highway to be predicted is obtained. Based on the situation prediction method, the driving scenes of a plurality of drivers on the expressway to be predicted are simulated through the real driving simulation of the traffic simulation system, the obtained prediction data are close to the real expressway situation, the interference of subjective factors or accidental factors on the expressway situation prediction is avoided, and the accuracy of the expressway operation situation prediction is improved.
A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the method for predicting highway operation situation according to any of the above embodiments when executing the program.
The computer equipment obtains traffic flow data and highway condition data of the highway to be predicted, converts the highway condition data into corresponding highway control measures, and finally loads the traffic flow data and the highway control measures into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, so that prediction data for predicting the situation of the highway to be predicted are obtained. Based on the situation prediction method, the driving scenes of a plurality of drivers on the expressway to be predicted are simulated through the real driving simulation of the traffic simulation system, the obtained prediction data are close to the real expressway situation, the interference of subjective factors or accidental factors on the expressway situation prediction is avoided, and the accuracy of the expressway operation situation prediction is improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting an operation situation of an expressway according to an embodiment;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a method for predicting the operation situation of a highway according to another embodiment;
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of an embodiment of an apparatus for predicting highway operation situation;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of an internal structure of a computer according to an embodiment.
Detailed Description
For better understanding of the objects, technical solutions and effects of the present invention, the present invention will be further explained with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples. Meanwhile, the following described examples are only for explaining the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention provides a method for predicting an operation situation of a highway.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a highway operation situation prediction method according to an embodiment, and as shown in fig. 1, the highway operation situation prediction method according to an embodiment includes steps S100 to S102:
s100, acquiring traffic flow data and highway condition data of a highway to be predicted;
the expressway to be predicted comprises an expressway or a commercial expressway.
And acquiring traffic flow data of the expressway to be predicted by arranging traffic flow recording equipment on the expressway to be predicted. In one embodiment, the traffic flow data includes real-time vehicle traffic flow data for toll gate entrances, toll gate exits, or portals between toll gates of the highway to be predicted.
The highway condition data are used for representing highway conditions of the highway to be predicted, and the highway conditions comprise highway lane traffic, lane steering, lane quality and the like. In one embodiment, the highway condition data includes highway fencing schedule data or highway affected condition data. As a preferred embodiment, the highway affected condition data includes highway affected condition data of traffic accidents or incidents known by monitoring/patrolling/receiving police, highway affected condition data monitored by weather forecasts and roadside weather stations, highway affected condition data of other factors (such as traffic guard support, etc.).
S101, converting the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures;
and determining highway management and control measures in the highway type of the highway to be predicted according to the highway condition representation of the highway condition data. In one embodiment, the highway management and control measures include speed limitation, vehicle restriction, or lane change.
In one embodiment, fig. 2 is a flowchart of a highway operation situation prediction method according to another embodiment, and as shown in fig. 2, a process of converting highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures in step S101 includes step S200:
and S200, converting the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures according to the simulation operation requirements of the traffic simulation system.
It is to be noted that the traffic simulation system includes an existing traffic prediction model corresponding to the type of highway of the highway to be predicted. And the highway management and control measures are adaptive to the management and control measures in the traffic prediction model. And after the traffic simulation system is determined, converting the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures according to the simulation operation requirements of the traffic prediction model in the traffic simulation system. For example, highway affected condition data for traffic accidents or incidents known by surveillance/patrol/alarm reception is converted to a speed limit.
S102, loading traffic flow data and highway management and control measures into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, and obtaining prediction data for predicting the situation of the highway to be predicted; the highway management and control measures are adaptive to the traffic simulation system.
The traffic simulation system corresponds to the expressway to be predicted. And applying an existing traffic simulation system corresponding to the highway to be predicted, and inputting traffic flow data and highway control measures as normalized data into the traffic simulation system to obtain normalized standard prediction data.
Based on this, in one embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, a process of loading traffic flow data and highway management and control measures into a traffic simulation system in step S102 to perform simulation operation to obtain prediction data for predicting a highway situation to be predicted includes steps S300 and S301:
s300, loading traffic flow data and highway management and control measures to a traffic simulation system to instruct the traffic simulation system to control a simulator to drive a preset vehicle in a preset driving mode in a preset driving scene; the preset driving scene comprises a preset driving environment and a preset driving highway;
and S301, acquiring operation data of driving executed by each simulated person as prediction data.
It should be noted that the traffic simulation system is different from a traditional traffic prediction mathematical model, namely, the traffic prediction mathematical model is based on calculation of a mathematical method, travel, distribution and other laws of traffic operation are described through a mathematical function and a model, and a prediction result is obtained through mathematical calculation. The traffic simulation system is based on the existing traffic prediction model of the highway to be predicted, and simulates that people drive a specific vehicle (such as a large truck) in a certain environment (such as rainy days) to run on a certain highway (such as a ramp and a curve) according to certain driving habits (such as lane change and rapid acceleration) through a computer system, and the scene that a plurality of drivers run on the highway is simulated, and relevant running data is collected after a period of time to serve as prediction data.
In one embodiment, the predictive data includes Key operational indicators (KPI Key Performance indicators) of future traffic situations. As a preferred embodiment, the key operation indicators include toll station entrance traffic flow, toll station exit traffic flow, inter-zone traffic flow between two toll stations, inter-zone travel time, inter-zone average speed, or congestion parameters. The key operation index is normalized data obtained by a traffic simulation system. And pushing the normalized key operation indexes and related data thereof to highway operation monitoring personnel so as to scientifically implement traffic operation management on the basis of mastering the situation evolution trend.
In one embodiment, the predicted result of the traffic situation is affected by the change of the preset driving scene caused by the road management and control measures. The traffic simulation system actually operates by continuously changing the preset driving scene to simulate the continuous operation of the expressway, so that the simulation operation of the traffic simulation system needs to be carried out in real time and the simulation operation time is limited, the simulation operation time is set to be less than or equal to the preset time period, the effective simulation of the traffic simulation system is facilitated, the simulation workload is reduced, the real-time short-term traffic situation prediction is realized, and the accuracy is improved.
The method for predicting the operation situation of the expressway in any embodiment obtains traffic flow data and expressway condition data of the expressway to be predicted, converts the expressway condition data into corresponding expressway management and control measures, and finally loads the traffic flow data and the expressway management and control measures into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, so that prediction data for predicting the situation of the expressway to be predicted is obtained. Based on the situation prediction method, the driving scenes of a plurality of drivers on the expressway to be predicted are simulated through the real driving simulation of the traffic simulation system, the obtained prediction data are close to the real expressway situation, the interference of subjective factors or accidental factors on the expressway situation prediction is avoided, and the accuracy of the expressway operation situation prediction is improved.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a device for predicting the operation situation of the expressway.
Fig. 3 is a block diagram of an embodiment of a highway operation situation prediction apparatus, and as shown in fig. 3, the highway operation situation prediction apparatus of the embodiment includes a module 100, a module 101, and a module 102:
a data acquisition module 100, configured to acquire traffic flow data and highway condition data of a highway to be predicted;
the data conversion module 101 is used for converting the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures;
the data deduction module 102 is configured to load traffic flow data and highway management and control measures into a traffic simulation system to perform simulation operation, and obtain prediction data used for predicting a highway situation to be predicted; the highway management and control measures are adaptive to the traffic simulation system.
In one embodiment, the data conversion module 101 includes a simulation data conversion module, and the simulation data conversion module is configured to convert the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures according to a simulation operation requirement of the traffic simulation system.
The data deduction module 102 comprises a data loading module and a data prediction module:
the data loading module is used for loading traffic flow data and highway management and control measures to the traffic simulation system so as to instruct the traffic simulation system to control simulation personnel to drive a preset vehicle in a preset driving mode in a preset driving scene; the preset driving scene comprises a preset driving environment and a preset driving highway;
and the data prediction module is used for acquiring the operation data of driving executed by each simulation personnel as prediction data.
According to the expressway operation situation prediction device, the expressway condition data are converted into corresponding expressway control measures after the traffic flow data and the expressway condition data of the expressway to be predicted are obtained, and finally the traffic flow data and the expressway control measures are loaded into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, so that prediction data used for predicting the expressway situation to be predicted are obtained. Based on the situation prediction method, the driving scenes of a plurality of drivers on the expressway to be predicted are simulated through the real driving simulation of the traffic simulation system, the obtained prediction data are close to the real expressway situation, the interference of subjective factors or accidental factors on the expressway situation prediction is avoided, and the accuracy of the expressway operation situation prediction is improved.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a computer storage medium, on which computer instructions are stored, and the instructions are executed by a processor to realize the method for predicting the operation situation of the expressway in any embodiment.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the processes of the methods of the embodiments described above can be implemented by hardware instructions of a computer program, which can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, can include the processes of the embodiments of the methods described above. Any reference to memory, storage, database, or other medium used in the embodiments provided herein may include non-volatile and/or volatile memory, among others. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), Programmable ROM (PROM), Electrically Programmable ROM (EPROM), Electrically Erasable Programmable ROM (EEPROM), or flash memory. Volatile memory can include Random Access Memory (RAM) or external cache memory. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM is available in a variety of forms such as Static RAM (SRAM), Dynamic RAM (DRAM), Synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), Double Data Rate SDRAM (DDRSDRAM), Enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), Synchronous Link DRAM (SLDRAM), Rambus Direct RAM (RDRAM), direct bus dynamic RAM (DRDRAM), and memory bus dynamic RAM (RDRAM).
Alternatively, the integrated unit of the present invention may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium if it is implemented in the form of a software functional module and sold or used as a separate product. Based on such understanding, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention may be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a terminal, or a network device) to execute all or part of the methods of the embodiments of the present invention. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a removable storage device, a RAM, a ROM, a magnetic or optical disk, or various other media that can store program code.
Corresponding to the computer storage medium, in one embodiment, a computer device is further provided, where the computer device includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and the processor executes the computer program to implement any one of the above-described highway operation situation prediction methods.
The computer device may be a terminal, and its internal structure diagram may be as shown in fig. 4. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, a network interface, a display screen, and an input device connected by a system bus. Wherein the processor of the computer device is configured to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device comprises a nonvolatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of an operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The network interface of the computer device is used for communicating with an external terminal through a network connection. The computer program is executed by a processor to implement a method of predicting highway operating situation. The display screen of the computer equipment can be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the input device of the computer equipment can be a touch layer covered on the display screen, a key, a track ball or a touch pad arranged on the shell of the computer equipment, an external keyboard, a touch pad or a mouse and the like
The computer equipment obtains traffic flow data and highway condition data of the highway to be predicted, converts the highway condition data into corresponding highway control measures, and finally loads the traffic flow data and the highway control measures into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, so that prediction data used for predicting the situation of the highway to be predicted are obtained. Based on the situation prediction method, the driving scenes of a plurality of drivers on the expressway to be predicted are simulated through the real driving simulation of the traffic simulation system, the obtained prediction data are close to the real expressway situation, the interference of subjective factors or accidental factors on the expressway situation prediction is avoided, and the accuracy of the expressway operation situation prediction is improved.
The technical features of the above embodiments can be arbitrarily combined, and for the sake of brevity, all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are not described, but should be considered as the scope of the present specification as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features.
The above examples only show some embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the inventive concept, which falls within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for predicting the operation situation of a highway is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring traffic flow data and highway condition data of a highway to be predicted;
converting the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures;
loading the traffic flow data and the highway management and control measures into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, and obtaining prediction data for predicting the situation of the highway to be predicted; and the highway management and control measures are adapted to the traffic simulation system.
2. The method for predicting the operation situation of the expressway according to claim 1, wherein the converting the expressway condition data into the corresponding expressway management and control measures includes the steps of:
and converting the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures according to the simulation operation requirements of the traffic simulation system.
3. The highway operation situation prediction method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the highway management and control measures include speed limitation, vehicle restriction, or lane change.
4. The method for predicting the operation situation of the expressway according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the process of loading the traffic flow data and the expressway management and control measures into a traffic simulation system to perform simulation operation to obtain prediction data for predicting the situation of the expressway to be predicted comprises the steps of:
loading the traffic flow data and the highway management and control measures to a traffic simulation system to instruct the traffic simulation system to control a simulator to drive a preset vehicle in a preset driving mode in a preset driving scene; the preset driving scene comprises a preset driving environment and a preset driving highway;
and acquiring operation data of driving executed by each simulated person as the prediction data.
5. The highway operation situation prediction method according to claim 4, wherein the prediction data comprises key operation indicators of future traffic situations.
6. The method according to claim 5, wherein the key operation index includes a toll station entrance traffic flow, a toll station exit traffic flow, an interval traffic flow between two toll stations, an interval travel time, an interval average speed, or a congestion parameter.
7. The highway operation situation prediction method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the traffic flow data includes real-time vehicle traffic flow data of a toll gate entrance, a toll gate exit or a portal between toll gates of the highway to be predicted;
the highway condition data includes highway fencing arrangement data or highway affected condition data.
8. An apparatus for predicting an operation situation of a highway, comprising:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring traffic flow data and highway condition data of a highway to be predicted;
the data conversion module is used for converting the highway condition data into corresponding highway management and control measures;
the data deduction module is used for loading the traffic flow data and the highway management and control measures into a traffic simulation system to execute simulation operation, and obtaining prediction data used for predicting the situation of the highway to be predicted; and the highway management and control measures are adapted to the traffic simulation system.
9. A computer storage medium having computer instructions stored thereon, wherein the computer instructions, when executed by a processor, implement the highway operation situation prediction method according to any one of claims 1-7.
10. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the processor, when executing the program, implements a highway operation situation prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
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