CN113050195A - Hourly resolution precipitation process identification method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an identification method for an hourly resolution precipitation process, which comprises the following steps: the method comprises the following steps of 1, identification method and 2, wherein the strength quantitative calculation method is a calculation method based on the combined action of three indexes of precipitation strength, duration and coverage range, and the method has the following advantages: the method forms a quantitative intensity calculation method suitable for the small-resolution precipitation process of the sites and the regions in China, has high precision, has practical applicability and improves the pertinence and the service benefits of meteorological service; the method solves the practical problem of identifying the precipitation process from the small time resolution suitable for China.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of weather forecast, and particularly relates to an identification method for an hourly resolution precipitation process.
Background
At present, precipitation generated by a weather system is mainly in a process, precipitation forecast and service are carried out according to the process, precipitation has obvious regional difference, and the spatial and temporal distribution of the process precipitation is not uniform, so that the identification and the strength evaluation of the beginning and the ending of the precipitation process in the weather forecast service business are mainly artificially and subjectively identified and judged, and the subjectivity is strong.
Due to the high disaster-causing characteristics of the strong rainfall process and the rainstorm process, students have more researches on the definition and evaluation methods of the strong rainfall process and the rainstorm process, for example, when the ginger army (2005) researches the space-time concentration of the strong rainfall process in China, the strong rainfall process is divided into a heavy rainfall process and a rainstorm process, and when zhangjiao (2012) defines the continuous strong rainfall process of the river basin, the condition that at least 1 station continuously generates more than or equal to 50mm of rainfall every day is pointed out. The method comprises the steps of studying strong precipitation process timing of a Chinese Shanghai region by Limna delavayi Diels and Dingyihui (2013), determining that the strong precipitation process is strong precipitation when the conditions that more than 3 stations are met and daily precipitation amount is more than magnitude of heavy rain (10mm) in 11 basic stations are determined, and taking strong precipitation events which are continuous or only separated by 1 day as a precipitation process for statistics. Chen Qing (2014) defines that the station number of the designated days with the precipitation amount of more than or equal to 10mm in the strong precipitation process in Hunan is more than or equal to 30 as the starting date of the strong precipitation process, and the day before the station number of less than or equal to 20 as the ending date of the strong precipitation process. Wew Weak (2015) uses 1/3 where the daily precipitation exceeds the 85 percentile threshold in summer to account for the total number of stations as the standard for the heavy precipitation process in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river. Selecting 3 indexes of an average precipitation amount, an extreme precipitation intensity value and a coverage range based on the daily precipitation data in the aged autumn (2006) to establish a Liaoning province regional rainstorm process rapid evaluation model based on a distance function; the courtesy incense (2008) defines a comprehensive evaluation index of the rainstorm process of the Jilin by using 3 indexes of average rainfall of the rainstorm, the maximum daily rainfall of the area and the rainstorm range and carries out grade division; the shore Finland (2009) determines the identification index of the regional rainstorm process in the Hubei province by adopting rainstorm, heavy rainstorm and extra-large rainstorm station number, and establishes a regional rainstorm disaster risk estimation method based on a distance function; zheng nations (2011) select indexes of average daily precipitation, maximum daily precipitation, coverage area and duration of the area, and establish a rainstorm event assessment model of the upstream of the Chinese Huaihe river by using a probability statistical method; in consideration of spatial continuity and time continuity of regional extreme events, Tu (2011) objectively identifies a rainstorm process in the eastern region of China by adopting a method combining hierarchical clustering and Euclidean distance, and Qianweihong (2011) judges the continuity of single-station rainstorm and aggregates the station rainstorm according to the adjacent distances of continuous strong precipitation stations, so that regional strong precipitation events are objectively identified. The Yuan-Chi (2012) uses daily rainfall data to select 4 indexes of average rainfall, rainfall intensity, coverage area and duration to calculate the recurrence period and divide the grade of the rainstorm process, and a comprehensive evaluation model of the rainstorm process is established on the basis of weight analysis; wuzheng (2012) determines the rainstorm assessment index and the assessment vector of the Chinese Haihe river basin area, and utilizes the Euclidean distance function method to realize the evaluation of the rainstorm grade of the Chinese Haihe river basin. Thunderstorm (2012) determines regional rainstorm process of China yellow river midstream river dragon interval based on the areas of 25mm and 50mm rain areas; the Zhouyan (2014) determines the regional rainstorm process standard of Fujian province by adopting rainstorm, heavy rain and intermediate rain station numbers, and adopts 4 factors of duration, influence range, process accumulated precipitation and maximum daily precipitation of the regional rainstorm process to comprehensively weight and construct a regional rainstorm process comprehensive strength quantitative evaluation method; the Wangchun study (2016) adopts the coincidence ratio of the number of concentrated rainstorm stations, the number of heavy rain stations and the number of heavy rain stations in continuous days as the judgment index of the regional rainstorm process of the Sichuan basin in China; the cattle Ruo (2017) judges the regional rainstorm process of the east region of China at 95 degrees E in an subjective and objective combination mode, and carries out comprehensive evaluation by adopting a method of effectively accumulating rainstorms. The five red rain (2019) defines the standard of the regional rainstorm process of the Guangdong province in China, and a comprehensive strength evaluation method of the regional rainstorm process of the Guangdong province in China based on 4 indexes of duration, rainstorm range, maximum daily precipitation and maximum process precipitation is constructed. The leaf palace show (2019) determines an objective identification method of a Chinese regional rainstorm process by adopting the number of rainstorm adjacent stations and the central distance of a rainstorm area, and a comprehensive intensity evaluation model of the regional rainstorm process is constructed on the basis of the average intensity, duration and average range of the rainstorm process. The method is characterized in that the Linelan (2020) establishes a regional persistent strong precipitation process definition index by adopting a method of sliding average, percentile and point-surface correlation analysis based on ground daily precipitation data and aiming at embodying the regionality, the persistence and the disaster causing of the strong precipitation process.
The above-mentioned prior art and developments with respect to precipitation processes are thus known:
1. the method is concentrated on two aspects of a strong rainfall process and a rainstorm process, does not consider a strong rainfall process, a medium rainfall process or a weak rainfall process, and cannot meet the requirements for identification and evaluation of the rainfall process in weather forecast service;
2. the rainstorm or the heavy rain is defined according to the national standard GB/T28592-;
3. the heavy rainfall process and the rainstorm process researched by the scholars are based on a daily scale, the rainfall process is not identified and quantitatively evaluated from a small time scale at present, but the precise evaluation on the rainfall process is required by the refined demand of the meteorological service;
4. as the short-time strong rainfall which is very easy to cause disasters, the evaluation method of the rainfall process does not consider the short-time strong rainfall, and the matching degree of the rainfall with the disasters is influenced.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for identifying an hourly resolution precipitation process, which can overcome the technical problems, and comprises the following steps:
step 1.1, when identifying the station precipitation process, considering the regional difference of the station, the disaster critical threshold and the extraction method of the station threshold suitable for China, determining the threshold of the station extraction by a percentile method, wherein the identification of the station precipitation process simultaneously meets the following two conditions: a: the station precipitation process is defined as that the precipitation amount reaches 80 percentile values in the order from small to large when the precipitation amount reaches 1 hour to the historical hour, and is defined as that the precipitation amount does not reach 80 percentile values at any moment for more than 8 continuous hours; b: the daily precipitation of the site reaches a 90-percentile value in the sequence from small to large of the historical daily precipitation;
step 1.2, when the regional rainfall process is identified, the complexity of the Chinese rainfall process is considered, and the regional rainfall process not only covers the large-scale rainfall process of the south and north China, but also only appears at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river in China or the Jingjin Ji in China, and even appears in small regions of a single city (district) in China. Under the condition of meeting the Chinese applicability, from the aspect of Chinese national weather service, the method is divided into two conditions of a large area and a small area, wherein the large area refers to the south, the north or any area which is larger than or equal to the area 1/3 of China, and the distance between sites is considered during process identification; the small area refers to a Chinese basin, 32 provinces (autonomous regions, directly administered cities) or any area smaller than 1/3 of Chinese area, the distance between stations is not considered during process identification, and in order to ensure that the objectively identified precipitation process and the weather system precipitation process have high matching degree, three parameter values with the best matching degree with the precipitation process recorded by a Chinese central weather station according to the weather system are found out by adjusting parameters through continuous tests, namely adjusting the distance between adjacent stations in the precipitation process, the minimum station number or proportion of precipitation recorded at a single time and the maximum interval time of two moments belonging to the one-time precipitation process, wherein the three parameter values specifically comprise the following steps:
step 1.2.1, large area: starting to define that the station number reaching the entry threshold value and the distance between the adjacent stations is less than 900 kilometers accounts for 5% or more or 40 stations in the evaluation area, ending to define that the station number reaching the entry threshold value and the distance between the adjacent stations is less than 900 kilometers accounts for less than 5% or more or less than 40 stations in the evaluation area, when the distance between the stations is calculated, assuming that the earth is a sphere, the radius is the average radius of the earth (R is 6371.004 kilometers), when the Longitude of 0 degree is taken as the reference, the earth surface distance between any two points on the surface of the earth can be calculated according to the Longitude and Latitude of the Longitude of 0 degree, the Longitude and Latitude of the point A is (LonA, LatA), the Longitude and Latitude of the point B is (LonB, LatB), the Longitude and Longitude of 0 degree is taken as the positive value of east Longitude (Longitude), the Longitude of west warp (-Longitude), and the Latitude of 90-Latitude are taken in north (90-Latitude), the south Latitude is 90+ Latitude value (90+ Latitude), the processed points A and B are counted as (MLonA, MLatA) and (MLonB, MLatB), and the following formula for calculating the distance between the two points can be obtained by triangle derivation:
C＝sin(MLatA)*sin(MLatB)*cos(MLonA-MLonB)+cos(MLatA)*cos(MLatB)……(1),
Distance＝R*Arccos(C)*Pi/180……(2),
in the above formula (2), R and Distance are expressed in kilometers;
step 1.2.2, small area: the number of stations reaching the entry threshold value accounts for 10% or more or 40 or more of the stations in the evaluation area at the beginning, and the number of stations reaching the entry threshold value for more than 8 continuous hours accounts for less than 10% or more or less than 40 of the stations in the evaluation area at the end;
and 2, carrying out an intensity quantitative calculation method, namely a calculation method based on the combined action of three indexes of precipitation intensity, duration and coverage range of precipitation process intensity, and carrying out research based on the intensity evaluation of the precipitation process with hour resolution by improving the three index definitions and algorithms of precipitation intensity, duration and coverage range for refining the time resolution to hour:
step 2.1, rainfall intensity index:
the rainfall intensity is one of disaster-causing factors of the rainstorm disaster, particularly the disaster-causing risk of strong rainfall in short duration of 1 hour, 3 hours and 6 hours is larger, the influence of rainfall is considered, and the maximum rainfall R in 1 hour in the process is considered when the rainfall intensity index is calculated1max3 hours of sliding for maximum precipitation RSliding 3maxMaximum precipitation R in 6-hour slidingSlide 6maxAnd process hour average precipitation RProcess averagingThe four elements of the magnitude are,
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
in the formula (3), RProcess averagingIs the average precipitation per process hour; h is the number of site process hours;
by taking the space-time distribution characteristics, the regional differences and the disaster threshold of precipitation into consideration, the hourly precipitation data of 2410 China national weather observation stations in 1951-2018 are utilized, and the hourly precipitation, the 3-hour sliding precipitation and the 6-hour sliding precipitation are arranged from small to large, and the corresponding values of 90%, 95%, 98%, 99%, 99.5%, 99.8%, 99.9%, 99.95%, 99.98%, 99.99% and 100% of percentiles are extracted to form an hourly precipitation intensity matrix R1Sliding 3 hours precipitation intensity matrix R 36 hours of sliding precipitation intensity matrix R6The formula is as follows:
in formula (4), i is 2410, and j is 11; i is the number of sites; j is the number of percentile values; r isijIs the hour precipitation value corresponding to the jth percentile of the ith station; rr (rr) ofijIs the 3-hour precipitation quantity value corresponding to the jth percentile of the ith station; rrrijIs a 6-hour precipitation quantity value corresponding to the jth percentile of the ith station; in order to unify the four elements for describing the rainfall intensity into a comparable dimension, an index division method is adopted, the station difference is considered, and an hourly rainfall intensity matrix R is adopted13 hours of sliding precipitation intensity matrix R 36 hours of sliding precipitation intensity matrix R6Divided by site index as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 precipitation Strength index partitioning
The maximum amount of precipitation R at 1 hour at each site was determined by referring to column 1 of Table 11maxAverage hourly precipitation RProcess averagingCorresponding 1 hour maximum precipitation intensity index I1maxAnd process hour average precipitation intensity index IProcess averagingIn comparison with column 2, the maximum precipitation R for 3 hours of each station slip is found3maxCorresponding maximum rainfall intensity index I in 3 hours of sliding3maxIn comparison with column 3, the maximum precipitation R for 6 hours at each station was found6maxCorresponding maximum rainfall intensity index I of 6 hours of sliding6maxAnd (3) integrating the combined action of the elements and calculating the station rainfall intensity index, wherein the formula is as follows:
in the formula (5), I is a precipitation intensity index; a. b, c and d are weight coefficients, different areas with the weight coefficients a, b, c and d can be properly adjusted according to different disaster-causing elements, and the weight average is 0.25 when the large-area precipitation process is calculated;
step 2.2, duration index:
the duration of the station precipitation process is from the beginning to the end of the precipitation process, the duration is defined as the hours of the recording process, and the formula is as follows:
in the formula (6), T is an effective precipitation time index; k is a rainfall attenuation index, h is the number of hours in the recording process, regarding the attenuation index K, different seasons in different regions are different, and the attenuation index K has close relation with the local disaster prevention and reduction capability, and the value K is 0.8 by taking day as a unit, and the value of the method is 0.98 by taking hour as a unit;
step 2.3, coverage index:
coverage (C)P) The ratio of the station N in the precipitation process to the station N in the evaluation area is recorded as the hour precipitation, and the formula is as follows:
in the formula (7), N is the number of the stations recorded in the precipitation process, and N is the total number of the stations in the evaluation area;
considering the correspondence with the magnitude of the intensity and duration of the precipitation, the precipitation coverage index (C) is defined as:
C＝10*CP……(8)，
in the formula (8), CPIs the coverage area;
step 2.4, calculating the comprehensive strength index in the precipitation process:
according to the method for calculating the comprehensive intensity index of the station and regional rainfall process, which is provided by the invention, the comprehensive intensity index of the station rainfall process is the combined action of the rainfall intensity and the duration, and the comprehensive intensity index RSI of the station rainfall process is calculated by the following formula:
RSI＝I*T……(9)，
in formula (9), I is a precipitation intensity index; t is a duration index;
the comprehensive intensity of the regional precipitation process is the combined action of 3 indexes including precipitation intensity, coverage and duration, and the comprehensive intensity index (RPI) of the regional precipitation process is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (10), RSI is a comprehensive strength index of a station precipitation process, n is the number of stations recorded in the precipitation process, and C is a coverage range index;
step 2.5, strength grade division in the precipitation process:
extracting and evaluating the rainfall process of different area ranges of 32 provinces (China autonomous region and China direct administration city) of China, south and north with China mountain-Huaihe as boundary and provincial level administrative division, applying a formula (9) and a formula (10) to calculate the rainfall process comprehensive intensity index of 1981 plus 2018 China, China south, China north and China 32 provinces (China autonomous region and China direct administration city), analyzing the probability density distribution of the intensity index of single-station and regional rainfall process, dividing the rainfall process into five levels of extreme, extra-strong, strong and strong according to the occurrence probability of about 1%, 5%, 10%, 15% and 69%, dividing the intensity levels of single-station and regional rainfall process into five levels as shown in table 2, dividing the single-station rainfall process comprehensive intensity index (RSI) into five index ranges according to four nodes of 30, 50, 90 and 150, the comprehensive intensity index (RPI) of the regional precipitation process is divided into five index ranges according to four nodes of 80, 180, 400 and 800, and the five index ranges respectively represent medium, strong, extra-strong and extreme levels.
TABLE 2 comprehensive intensity ratings for single station and regional precipitation processes
The method has the following advantages:
1. the method provides an identification method of the hourly resolution precipitation process, defines the starting and ending conditions of the station, large area and small area precipitation processes, establishes a quantitative calculation method of the comprehensive intensity of the hourly resolution precipitation process, and defines the intensity grade division standard of the precipitation process;
2. the method defines the full-scope precipitation process from the hour resolution, considers the distance between adjacent stations, embodies the characteristics of flaking and neutrality of the precipitation process, enhances the matching degree with the weather system, realizes the definition and the objective extraction rationality and scientificity of the precipitation process, improves the usability, can identify the precipitation process in the Chinese range, and has the time precision reaching the hour resolution;
3. the method combines the regional difference, the space distribution characteristics during rainfall and the disaster threshold, realizes the rainfall process identification method suitable for any site and area (south north China, China drainage basin and China province) in east China and west China, south China and north China from a small time resolution, has Chinese universality, and can be selectively used in meteorological service according to requirements;
4. the method forms the intensity quantitative calculation method of the rainfall process with the small resolution suitable for the sites and the regions in China, has high precision, is suitable for the sites and the regions in China, has the advantages that the detection and demonstration display results are all in line with the actual situation, is oriented to the business application requirements, qualitatively divides the intensity of the rainfall process into weak, medium, strong, extra strong and extreme 6 grades, has practicability, can also carry out historical comparison, and improves the pertinence and the service benefits of the meteorological service;
5. according to the method, the maximum rainfall amount in 1 hour, the maximum rainfall amount in 3 hours in sliding, the maximum rainfall amount in 6 hours in sliding and the average rainfall amount in hour are simultaneously considered when the rainfall intensity is set, the attenuation influence of the transpiration and evaporation effects on rainfall is considered in the duration, the effective rainfall time is set, the rainfall intensity and the duration are set, the degree of coincidence with the disaster is improved, and the possible disaster-causing situation can be analyzed from the comprehensive intensity index of the rainfall process;
6. the method solves the problem that the method is suitable for identifying the rainfall process from the hour resolution in China in a practical manner, realizes the weather system matching, and identifies the full-range rainfall process from the hour resolution, including the weak rainfall process, the medium rainfall process, the strong rainfall process, the extra-strong rainfall process and the extreme rainfall process.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of an hourly resolution precipitation process identification method according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of an hourly resolution precipitation process assessment software interface according to the method of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic illustration of the statistical evaluation of rainfall process in southern areas according to the method of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic illustration of a statistical evaluation of rainfall process in northern areas according to the method of the present invention;
FIG. 52011 is a diagram of statistical evaluation of rainfall process in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river in China;
FIG. 62016 is a schematic diagram showing statistical evaluation of rainfall process at a site in the middle and downstream Yangtze river from 30/6/7/5/06.
Detailed Description
Embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. As shown in fig. 1, the method of the present invention comprises the following steps:
step 1.1, when identifying the station precipitation process, considering the regional difference of the station, the disaster critical threshold and the extraction method of the station threshold suitable for China, determining the threshold of the station extraction by a percentile method, wherein the identification of the station precipitation process simultaneously meets the following two conditions: a: the station precipitation process is defined as that the precipitation amount reaches 80 percentile values in the order from small to large when the precipitation amount reaches 1 hour to the historical hour, and is defined as that the precipitation amount does not reach 80 percentile values at any moment for more than 8 continuous hours; b: the daily precipitation of the site reaches a 90-percentile value in the sequence from small to large of the historical daily precipitation;
step 1.2, when the regional rainfall process is identified, the complexity of the Chinese rainfall process is considered, and the regional rainfall process not only covers the large-scale rainfall process of the south and north China, but also only appears at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river in China or the Jingjin Ji in China, and even appears in small regions of a single city (district) in China. Under the condition of meeting the Chinese applicability, from the aspect of Chinese national weather service, the method is divided into two conditions of a large area and a small area, wherein the large area refers to the south, the north or any area which is larger than or equal to the area 1/3 of China, and the distance between sites is considered during process identification; the small area refers to a Chinese basin, 32 provinces (autonomous regions, directly administered cities) or any area smaller than 1/3 of Chinese area, the distance between stations is not considered during process identification, and in order to ensure that the objectively identified precipitation process and the weather system precipitation process have high matching degree, three parameter values with the best matching degree with the precipitation process recorded by a Chinese central weather station according to the weather system are found out by adjusting parameters through continuous tests, namely adjusting the distance between adjacent stations in the precipitation process, the minimum station number or proportion of precipitation recorded at a single time and the maximum interval time of two moments belonging to the one-time precipitation process, wherein the three parameter values specifically comprise the following steps:
step 1.2.1, large area: starting to define that the station number reaching the entry threshold value and the distance between the adjacent stations is less than 900 kilometers accounts for 5% or more or 40 stations in the evaluation area, ending to define that the station number reaching the entry threshold value and the distance between the adjacent stations is less than 900 kilometers accounts for less than 5% or more or less than 40 stations in the evaluation area, when the distance between the stations is calculated, assuming that the earth is a sphere, the radius is the average radius of the earth (R is 6371.004 kilometers), when the Longitude of 0 degree is taken as the reference, the earth surface distance between any two points on the surface of the earth can be calculated according to the Longitude and Latitude of the Longitude of 0 degree, the Longitude and Latitude of the point A is (LonA, LatA), the Longitude and Latitude of the point B is (LonB, LatB), the Longitude and Longitude of 0 degree is taken as the positive value of east Longitude (Longitude), the Longitude of west warp (-Longitude), and the Latitude of 90-Latitude are taken in north (90-Latitude), the south Latitude is 90+ Latitude value (90+ Latitude), the processed points A and B are counted as (MLonA, MLatA) and (MLonB, MLatB), and the following formula for calculating the distance between the two points can be obtained by triangle derivation:
C＝sin(MLatA)*sin(MLatB)*cos(MLonA-MLonB)+cos(MLatA)*cos(MLatB)……(1)，
Distance＝R*Arccos(C)*Pi/180……(2)，
in the above formula (2), R and Distance are expressed in kilometers;
step 1.2.2, small area: the number of stations reaching the entry threshold value accounts for 10% or more or 40 or more of the stations in the evaluation area at the beginning, and the number of stations reaching the entry threshold value for more than 8 continuous hours accounts for less than 10% or more or less than 40 of the stations in the evaluation area at the end;
and 2, carrying out an intensity quantitative calculation method, namely a calculation method based on the combined action of three indexes of precipitation intensity, duration and coverage range of precipitation process intensity, and carrying out research based on the intensity evaluation of the precipitation process with hour resolution by improving the three index definitions and algorithms of precipitation intensity, duration and coverage range for refining the time resolution to hour:
step 2.1, rainfall intensity index:
the rainfall intensity is one of disaster-causing factors of the rainstorm disaster, particularly the disaster-causing risk of strong rainfall in short duration of 1 hour, 3 hours and 6 hours is larger, the influence of rainfall is considered, and the maximum rainfall R in 1 hour in the process is considered when the rainfall intensity index is calculated1max3 hours of sliding for maximum precipitation RSliding 3maxMaximum precipitation R in 6-hour slidingSlide 6maxAnd process hour average precipitation RProcess averagingThe four elements of the magnitude are,
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
in the formula (3), RProcess averagingIs the average precipitation per process hour; h is the number of site process hours;
by taking the space-time distribution characteristics, the regional differences and the disaster threshold of precipitation into consideration, the hourly precipitation data of 2410 China national weather observation stations in 1951-2018 are utilized to arrange the hourly precipitation, the 3-hour sliding precipitation and the 6-hour sliding precipitation from small to large, and the percentiles of 90 percent, 95 percent, 98 percent, 99 percent, 99.5 percent, 99.8 percent, 99.9 percent are extractedThe values of% 99.95%, 99.98%, 99.99% and 100% form an hourly precipitation intensity matrix R1Sliding 3 hours precipitation intensity matrix R 36 hours of sliding precipitation intensity matrix R6The formula is as follows:
in the formula (4), i 2410, j 11, i is the station number, j is the percentile number, rijIs the hour precipitation value rr corresponding to the jth percentile of the ith stationijIs the 3-hour precipitation value, rrr, corresponding to the jth percentile of the ith stationij6-hour rainfall value corresponding to the jth percentile of the ith station, an exponential division method is adopted for unifying four elements for describing rainfall intensity into a comparable dimension, station difference is considered, and an hour rainfall intensity matrix R is obtained13 hours of sliding precipitation intensity matrix R 36 hours of sliding precipitation intensity matrix R6Divided by site index as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 precipitation Strength index partitioning
The maximum amount of precipitation R at 1 hour at each site was determined by referring to column 1 of Table 11maxAverage hourly precipitation RProcess averagingCorresponding 1 hour maximum precipitation intensity index I1maxAnd process hour average precipitation intensity index IProcess averagingIn comparison with column 2, the maximum precipitation R for 3 hours of each station slip is found3maxCorresponding maximum rainfall intensity index I in 3 hours of sliding3maxIn comparison with column 3, the maximum precipitation R for 6 hours at each station was found6maxCorresponding maximum rainfall intensity index I of 6 hours of sliding6maxAnd (3) integrating the combined action of the elements and calculating the station rainfall intensity index, wherein the formula is as follows:
in the formula (5), I is a precipitation intensity index; a. b, c and d are weight coefficients, different areas with the weight coefficients a, b, c and d can be properly adjusted according to different disaster-causing elements, and the weight average is 0.25 when the large-area precipitation process is calculated;
step 2.2, duration index:
the duration of the station precipitation process is from the beginning to the end of the precipitation process, the duration is defined as the hours of the recording process, and the formula is as follows:
in the formula (6), T is an effective precipitation time index; k is a rainfall attenuation index, h is the number of hours in the recording process, regarding the attenuation index K, different seasons in different regions are different, and the attenuation index K has close relation with the local disaster prevention and reduction capability, and the value K is 0.8 by taking day as a unit, and the value of the method is 0.98 by taking hour as a unit;
step 2.3, coverage index:
coverage (C)P) The ratio of the station N in the precipitation process to the station N in the evaluation area is recorded as the hour precipitation, and the formula is as follows:
in the formula (7), N is the number of the stations recorded in the precipitation process, and N is the total number of the stations in the evaluation area;
considering the correspondence with the magnitude of the intensity and duration of the precipitation, the precipitation coverage index (C) is defined as:
C＝10*CP……(8)，
in the formula (8), CPIs the coverage area;
step 2.4, calculating the comprehensive strength index in the precipitation process:
according to the method for calculating the comprehensive intensity index of the station and regional rainfall process, which is provided by the invention, the comprehensive intensity index of the station rainfall process is the combined action of the rainfall intensity and the duration, and the comprehensive intensity index RSI of the station rainfall process is calculated by the following formula:
RSI＝I*T……(9)，
in formula (9), I is a precipitation intensity index; t is a duration index;
the comprehensive intensity of the regional precipitation process is the combined action of 3 indexes including precipitation intensity, coverage and duration, and the comprehensive intensity index (RPI) of the regional precipitation process is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (10), RSI is a comprehensive strength index of a station precipitation process, n is the number of stations recorded in the precipitation process, and C is a coverage range index;
step 2.5, strength grade division in the precipitation process:
extracting and evaluating the rainfall process of different area ranges of 32 provinces (China autonomous region and China direct administration city) of China, south and north with China mountain-Huaihe as boundary and provincial level administrative division, applying a formula (9) and a formula (10) to calculate the rainfall process comprehensive intensity index of 1981 plus 2018 China, China south, China north and China 32 provinces (China autonomous region and China direct administration city), analyzing the probability density distribution of the intensity index of single-station and regional rainfall process, dividing the rainfall process into five levels of extreme, extra-strong, strong and strong according to the occurrence probability of about 1%, 5%, 10%, 15% and 69%, dividing the intensity levels of single-station and regional rainfall process into five levels as shown in table 2, dividing the single-station rainfall process comprehensive intensity index (RSI) into five index ranges according to four nodes of 30, 50, 90 and 150, the comprehensive intensity index (RPI) of the regional precipitation process is divided into five index ranges according to four nodes of 80, 180, 400 and 800, and the five index ranges respectively represent medium, strong, extra-strong and extreme levels.
TABLE 2 comprehensive intensity ratings for single station and regional precipitation processes
As shown in fig. 1, the method of the present invention comprises three steps:
(1) the precipitation process is defined so as to realize the objective automatic extraction of the precipitation process at any station and region in China range with the hour resolution;
(2) the intensity quantitative calculation method realizes the comprehensive intensity quantitative calculation of the small-resolution precipitation process of any station, large area and small area;
(3) and (4) grading, which is to meet the requirements of business application, and grading the precipitation process into weak, medium, strong, extra strong and extreme 6 grades so as to improve the practicability of the business.
The time (accurate to hours) of beginning and ending of the rainfall process in southern China, northern China in 2013 and the rainfall process in the middle and downstream areas of Yangtze river in 2011 China, the coverage proportion, the comprehensive intensity index and the grade are calculated by using an hour resolution rainfall process identification method, as shown in figures 3-6, and as shown in figure 6, the comprehensive intensity index and the grade of the rainfall process in the middle and downstream areas of Yangtze river in China from 2016, 6, 30, 20 to 7, 5 and 06, the results can be directly applied to the weather forecast service business.
The hour scale rainfall process statistics and the accurate evaluation of the method are used for representing one of important methods of strong, weak, rich and little rainwater, are important weather forecast service works and products which are needed urgently, are also used for case warehousing, archiving and historical comparison of historical rainfall processes, are key research indexes of accurate risk evaluation and influence estimation of the rainstorm disaster, establish a foundation for hour scale dynamic risk evaluation of the rainstorm disaster and provide a basis for disaster evolution characteristic analysis.
The Chinese regional scope related by the invention is subject to the territory official published by China.
The above description is only for the specific embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the scope of the present disclosure should be covered within the scope of the present invention claimed in the appended claims.
Claims (3)
1. An hour resolution precipitation process identification method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, an identification method is used for finely identifying the precipitation process according to the hourly resolution, classifying and identifying the precipitation process according to different spatial scales and aiming at sites, large areas and small areas in a Chinese range, increasing the matching degree of the precipitation process and a weather system, and accurately identifying the precipitation process of the large areas based on the proximity principle;
and 2, carrying out an intensity quantitative calculation method, namely a calculation method based on the combined action of three indexes of precipitation intensity, duration and coverage range of precipitation process intensity, and carrying out research on the intensity evaluation of the precipitation process based on the hour resolution by improving the three index definitions and algorithms of the precipitation intensity, the duration and the coverage range to refine the time resolution to hours.
2. The method for identifying an hour-resolution precipitation process according to claim 1, wherein the step 1 comprises the following steps:
step 1.1, when identifying the station precipitation process, considering the regional difference of the station, the disaster critical threshold and the extraction method of the station threshold suitable for China, determining the threshold of the station extraction by a percentile method, wherein the identification of the station precipitation process simultaneously meets the following two conditions: a: the station precipitation process is defined as that the precipitation amount reaches 80 percentile values in the order from small to large when the precipitation amount reaches 1 hour to the historical hour, and is defined as that the precipitation amount does not reach 80 percentile values at any moment for more than 8 continuous hours; b: the daily precipitation of the site reaches a 90-percentile value in the sequence from small to large of the historical daily precipitation;
step 1.2, when identifying regional rainfall process, considering the complexity of the Chinese rainfall process, wherein the regional rainfall process comprises a large-scale rainfall process covering the south and north of China, a small-region rainfall process only appearing at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river or the Beijing Ji of China, and even in a single urban area of China; under the condition of meeting the Chinese applicability, from the aspect of Chinese national weather service, the method is divided into two conditions of a large area and a small area, wherein the large area refers to the south, the north or any area which is larger than or equal to the area 1/3 of China, and the distance between sites is considered during process identification; the small area refers to a Chinese basin, 32 provinces and municipalities, a direct district city or any area smaller than 1/3 of Chinese area, the distance between stations is not considered during process identification, in order to ensure that the objectively identified precipitation process and the weather system precipitation process have high matching degree, three parameter values with the best matching degree with the precipitation process recorded by the weather system by continuously testing and adjusting parameters, namely adjusting the distance between adjacent stations recorded in the precipitation process, the minimum station number or proportion of single-time recorded precipitation and the maximum interval time of two moments belonging to one precipitation process, are found out, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1.2.1, large area: starting to define that the station number reaching the entry threshold value and the distance between the adjacent stations is less than 900 kilometers accounts for 5% or more or 40 stations in the evaluation area, ending to define that the station number reaching the entry threshold value and the distance between the adjacent stations is less than 900 kilometers accounts for less than 5% or more or less than 40 stations in the evaluation area, when the distance between the stations is calculated, assuming that the earth is a sphere, the radius is the average radius R of the earth is 6371.004 kilometers, when the Longitude of 0 degree is taken as the reference, the earth surface distance between any two points on the surface of the earth can be calculated according to the Longitude and Latitude of the Longitude of 0 degree, the Longitude and Latitude of the point A is (LonA, LatA), the Longitude and Latitude of the point B is (LonB, LatB), the Longitude and Longitude of east Longitude and west Longitude is taken as the positive value (Longitude), and the Longitude of west is taken as the negative value (-Longitude), and the Latitude of 90-Latitude is taken as the north value (90-Latitude), the south Latitude is 90+ Latitude value (90+ Latitude), the processed points A and B are counted as (MLonA, MLatA) and (MLonB, MLatB), and the following formula for calculating the distance between the two points can be obtained by triangle derivation:
C＝sin(MLatA)*sin(MLatB)*cos(MLonA-MLonB)+cos(MLatA)*cos(MLatB)……(1)，
Distance＝R*Arccos(C)*Pi/180……(2)，
in the above formula (2), R and Distance are expressed in kilometers;
step 1.2.2, small area: the number of stations reaching the entry threshold is defined as 10% or more or 40 or more of the number of stations in the evaluation area at the beginning, and the number of stations reaching the entry threshold for 8 or more consecutive hours or less is defined as less than 10% or more or less than 40 of the number of stations in the evaluation area at the end.
3. The method for identifying an hour-resolution precipitation process according to claim 1, wherein the step 2 comprises the following steps:
step 2.1, rainfall intensity index:
the rainfall intensity is one of disaster-causing factors of the rainstorm disaster, particularly the disaster-causing risk of strong rainfall in short duration of 1 hour, 3 hours and 6 hours is larger, the influence of rainfall is considered, and the maximum rainfall R in 1 hour in the process is considered when the rainfall intensity index is calculated1max3 hours of sliding for maximum precipitation RSliding 3maxMaximum precipitation R in 6-hour slidingSlide 6maxAnd process hour average precipitation RProcess averagingThe four elements of the magnitude are,
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
in the formula (3), RProcess averagingIs the average precipitation per process hour; h is the number of site process hours;
by taking the space-time distribution characteristics, the regional differences and the disaster threshold of precipitation into consideration, the hourly precipitation data of 2410 China national weather observation stations in 1951-2018 are utilized, and the hourly precipitation, the 3-hour sliding precipitation and the 6-hour sliding precipitation are arranged from small to large, and the corresponding values of 90%, 95%, 98%, 99%, 99.5%, 99.8%, 99.9%, 99.95%, 99.98%, 99.99% and 100% of percentiles are extracted to form an hourly precipitation intensity matrix R1Sliding 3 hours precipitation intensity matrix R36 hours of sliding precipitation intensity matrix R6The formula is as follows:
in formula (4), i is 2410, and j is 11; i is the number of sites; j is the number of percentile values; r isijIs the hour precipitation value corresponding to the jth percentile of the ith station; rr (rr) ofijIs the 3-hour precipitation quantity value corresponding to the jth percentile of the ith station; rrrijIs a 6-hour precipitation quantity value corresponding to the jth percentile of the ith station; in order to unify the four elements for describing the rainfall intensity into a comparable dimension, an index division method is adopted, the station difference is considered, and an hourly rainfall intensity matrix R is adopted13 hours of sliding precipitation intensity matrix R36 hours of sliding precipitation intensity matrix R6Dividing according to site indexes;
step 2.2, duration index:
the duration of the station precipitation process is from the beginning to the end of the precipitation process, the duration is defined as the hours of the recording process, and the formula is as follows:
in equation (6): t is an effective precipitation time index; k is a rainfall attenuation index, h is the number of hours in the recording process, regarding the attenuation index K, different seasons in different regions are different, and the attenuation index K has close relation with the local disaster prevention and reduction capability, and the value K is 0.8 by taking day as a unit, and the value of the method is 0.98 by taking hour as a unit;
step 2.3, coverage index:
coverage (C)P) The ratio of the station N in the precipitation process to the station N in the evaluation area is recorded as the hour precipitation, and the formula is as follows:
in equation (7): n is the number of stations recorded in the precipitation process, and N is the total number of stations in the evaluation area;
considering the correspondence with the magnitude of the intensity and duration of the precipitation, the precipitation coverage index (C) is defined as:
C＝10*CP……(8)，
in the formula (8), CPIs the coverage area;
step 2.4, calculating the comprehensive strength index in the precipitation process:
according to the method for calculating the comprehensive intensity index of the station and regional rainfall process, which is provided by the invention, the comprehensive intensity index of the station rainfall process is the combined action of the rainfall intensity and the duration, and the comprehensive intensity index RSI of the station rainfall process is calculated by the following formula:
RSI＝I*T……(9)，
in formula (9), I is a precipitation intensity index; t is a duration index;
the comprehensive intensity of the regional precipitation process is the combined action of 3 indexes including precipitation intensity, coverage and duration, and the comprehensive intensity index (RPI) of the regional precipitation process is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (10), RSI is a comprehensive strength index of a station precipitation process, n is the number of stations recorded in the precipitation process, and C is a coverage range index;
step 2.5, strength grade division in the precipitation process:
extracting and evaluating the precipitation process of different region ranges of 32 provinces of southern and northern provinces and provincial level administrative divisions of China, taking Qinling-Huaihe as a boundary, calculating the comprehensive strength index of precipitation processes of China, China southern, China northern province and China 32 provinces in 2018 by applying a formula (9) and a formula (10), analyzing the probability density distribution of the strength index of single-station and regional precipitation processes, dividing the precipitation process into five levels of extreme, extra-strong, strong and medium according to the occurrence probability of about 1%, 5%, 10%, 15% and 69%, dividing the strength levels of the single-station and regional precipitation processes into five index ranges according to four nodes of 30, 50, 90 and 150, dividing the comprehensive strength index of the single-station precipitation process into five index ranges according to four nodes of 80, 180, 400 and 800, respectively representing medium, strong, extra strong and extreme grades.
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