CN113033882B - Method for predicting residual life of vehicle-mounted electronic system - Google Patents
Method for predicting residual life of vehicle-mounted electronic system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for predicting the residual life of a vehicle-mounted electronic system with high algorithm optimization degree and accurate prediction result, which comprises the following steps of B1, acquiring load working conditions and evaluation index data in real time by a sensor in the running process of the vehicle-mounted electronic system, and storing the data in an upper computer memory; B2. determining a critical value M0 of the evaluation index; B3. resampling the load working condition and the evaluation index at intervals of delta t to obtain a current value Mj of the evaluation index, and calculating the current degradation rate vj of the evaluation index; B4. calculating the residual life Lj at each moment according to the evaluation index critical value M0 in the B2, the evaluation index current value Mj in the B3 and the degradation rate vj; B5. calculating the activation energy variation Pm; B6. when the activation energy variation amount Pm has an inflection point and is the minimum value, the corresponding predicted life at the moment is displayed and notified to a user.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of electronic system evaluation, in particular to a method for predicting the residual life of a vehicle-mounted electronic system.
Background
Automotive electronics is considered a revolution in the development of automotive technology. The degree of automobile electronization is regarded as an important mark for measuring the level of modern automobiles, and is the most important technical measure for developing new automobile types and improving the performance of the automobiles. Automobile manufacturers consider increasing the number of automotive electronics and promoting automotive electronics to be important effective means for capturing the future automobile market.
The automobile electronic is a general term for automobile body electronic control devices and vehicle-mounted electronic control devices. The electronic control device for the automobile body comprises an engine control system, a chassis control system and an electronic control system for the automobile body.
The most important role of automotive electronics is to improve the safety, comfort, economy and entertainment of automobiles. The electric control system is composed of sensors, a microprocessor MPU, an actuator, dozens or even hundreds of electronic components and parts thereof. According to statistics, from 1989 to 2000, the proportion of electronic devices on each vehicle in the whole vehicle manufacturing cost is increased from 16% to more than 23%. In some luxury cars, the number of single-chip microcomputers used reaches 48, and the electronic products account for more than 50% of the cost of the whole car. Therefore, whether the vehicle-mounted electronic system can normally operate or not becomes a new key point in the field of maintenance in the automobile industry at present, and the personal safety of a driver is directly concerned.
In the prior art, the method is used for carrying out regular replacement according to the life cycle of a vehicle-mounted electronic system calculated in advance after an automobile leaves a factory, and carrying out system self-check when the automobile is started. The service life calculation model of the conventional vehicle-mounted electronic system directly applies an Arrhenius model, considers that activation energy is a constant, and fits a service life curve through temperature and endurance service life. The service life curve fitted by the existing method is generally linear, simple and visual, and wide in application range, but the technical problem that the actual residual service life of a vehicle-mounted electronic system cannot be reflected in real time exists.
In fact, the activation of the electronic system can change in real time during the operation of the vehicle due to various influencing factors, and many conditions can cause the service life of the electronic system to be greatly shortened. The use of fixed activation can result in an extrapolated calculated life that is much greater than its true remaining life. Even if the electronic components have structural failures, the service life predicted by using the model still has a large margin, so that the model cannot be directly applied to predict the service life of the vehicle-mounted electronic system.
In order to solve the above technical problem, patent document CN108304685A discloses a method and a system for predicting the remaining life of a nonlinear degradation device, the method comprising: constructing a potential degradation model of the nonlinear degradation equipment according to the time uncertainty parameter, the individual difference parameter and the measurement uncertainty parameter of the nonlinear degradation equipment; acquiring sampling data of each nonlinear degradation device at different moments; determining parameters of a potential degradation model of the nonlinear degradation equipment according to sampling data of the nonlinear degradation equipment at different moments; determining a residual life prediction model according to the nonlinear degradation equipment potential degradation model after the parameters are determined; and determining the residual life value of the nonlinear degradation equipment according to the residual life prediction model. According to the method, the time uncertainty, the individual difference and the measurement uncertainty of the nonlinear degradation equipment are comprehensively considered, so that a potential degradation model of the nonlinear degradation equipment is constructed, the residual service life of the nonlinear degradation equipment is predicted, and the accuracy of service life prediction is improved. But the invention has complex calculation mode and is not suitable for vehicle-mounted computers.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is as follows: the existing vehicle-mounted electronic system can not accurately predict and reflect the actual residual life of the vehicle-mounted electronic system in real time.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides a vehicle-mounted electronic system residual life prediction method with high algorithm optimization degree and accurate prediction result, which comprises the following steps
B1. In the running process of the vehicle-mounted electronic system, load working conditions and evaluation index data are collected in real time through a sensor and stored in an upper computer memory;
B2. determining a critical value M0 of the evaluation index;
B3. resampling the load working condition and the evaluation index at intervals of delta t to obtain a current value Mj of the evaluation index, and calculating the current degradation rate vj of the evaluation index;
B4. calculating the residual life Lj at each moment according to the evaluation index critical value M0 in the B2, the evaluation index current value Mj in the B3 and the degradation rate vj;
B5. calculating the activation energy variation Pm;
B6. and when the activation energy variation amount Pm has an inflection point and is the minimum value, displaying the corresponding predicted service life at the moment and informing a user, and when the activation energy variation amount Pm has no inflection point or an inflection point but is not the minimum value, returning to the step B3. continuously calculating. The method has the creation points that the internal memory occupied by the operation of the algorithm is saved by sampling at intervals; when the minimum value at the inflection point of the activation energy curve is detected, an alarm is given, because the change rate of the activation energy at the minimum value is minimum, the degradation rate of the vehicle-mounted electronic system is minimum, and the electronic system is accelerated to degrade after the minimum value is detected, so that the method gives notice before the accelerated degradation, a driver has sufficient replacement time, and accidents caused by sudden failure during driving are avoided.
Preferably, the load condition and evaluation index data include one or more of ambient temperature, humidity, electronic system current, leakage current, output voltage, resistance value and dielectric coefficient.
Preferably, the calculation formula of the current degradation rate vj in the step B3 is
In the formula, the sampling sequence number j is i +1, and if the degradation rate calculation value is negative, the absolute value is taken.
Preferably, the calculation formula of Pm in the step B5. is
Where m ═ j +1, kbAnd T is a Boltzmann constant and is a temperature change value under a load condition.
Preferably, step B6. takes the earlier sampling time point as the remaining life of the electronic system when the amount of change in the activation energy between two adjacent activation energy is the minimum.
Preferably, when the evaluation index data includes a plurality of data, the service life of the vehicle-mounted electronic system is predicted according to each evaluation index data, and then the minimum value of the calculated plurality of remaining service lives L is taken as the remaining service life to be substituted for the calculation of the activation energy in step B5.
Preferably, the step b3.Δ t is an integer multiple of the least common multiple of the sampling times of the different sensors. On one hand, the influence of irrelevant variables can be avoided by uniform frequency acquisition, the prediction reliability is increased, on the other hand, the sampling interval is properly enlarged, the memory proportion of the vehicle-mounted computer occupied by operation can be reduced, and the burden of the vehicle-mounted computer is reduced.
The substantial effects of the invention are as follows: the notification is made before the accelerated degradation so that the driver has sufficient replacement time to avoid accidents due to sudden failure while driving. The technical problem that the actual residual life of the vehicle-mounted electronic system cannot be accurately predicted and reflected in real time in the conventional vehicle-mounted electronic system is solved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the first embodiment.
Detailed Description
The following provides a more detailed description of the present invention, with reference to the accompanying drawings.
As shown in fig. 1, the technical problem to be solved by the first embodiment of the present invention is: the existing vehicle-mounted electronic system can not accurately predict and reflect the actual residual life of the vehicle-mounted electronic system in real time.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides a vehicle-mounted electronic system residual life prediction method with high algorithm optimization degree and accurate prediction result, which comprises the following steps
B1. In the running process of the vehicle-mounted electronic system, load working condition and evaluation index data are collected in real time through a sensor and stored in an upper computer memory;
B2. determining a critical value M0 of the evaluation index;
B3. resampling the load working condition and the evaluation index at intervals of delta t to obtain a current value Mj of the evaluation index, and calculating the current degradation rate vj of the evaluation index;
B4. calculating the residual life Lj at each moment according to the evaluation index critical value M0 in the B2, the evaluation index current value Mj in the B3 and the degradation rate vj;
B5. calculating the activation energy variation Pm;
B6. and when the activation energy variation amount Pm has an inflection point and is the minimum value, displaying the corresponding predicted service life at the moment and informing a user, and when the activation energy variation amount Pm has no inflection point or has an inflection point but is not the minimum value, returning to the step B3.
The present invention is described in terms of a method for measuring the remaining life of a vehicle-mounted power supply control unit.
The temperature sensor and the resistance sensor are adopted to collect the environment temperature variation and the insulation resistance of the chip resistor inside the controller when the vehicle-mounted controller runs in real time. The upper computer memory records initial values as:
| load condition | Initial value |
| Variation of ambient temperature | 60K |
TABLE 1
| Evaluation index | Initial value |
| Insulation resistance value of chip resistor | 500 ohm |
TABLE 2
And in the running process of the vehicle, the resampling processor in the memory resamples the real-time data, and the sampling period is 1 hour.
TABLE 3
According to engineering experience, the insulation resistance value of the chip resistor is changed from 500 ohms to 450 ohms, which causes insulation fault of the system, and the critical value of the insulation resistance value of the chip resistor is 450 ohms.
The insulation resistance degradation rate between two resampling times was calculated according to b3, Δ t ═ 1 hour, and the results are shown in table 4
| Count j | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Degradation Rate (ohm/hr) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | Null |
TABLE 4
Null indicates that the evaluation index value has not been collected at this time, and therefore the degradation rate, the remaining life, and the activation energy variation amount cannot be calculated.
The remaining life of the chip resistor was calculated from B4., and the results are shown in Table 5
| Count j | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Residual life (hours) | 10 | 45 | 44 | 43 | 14 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 12.5 | 11.5 | Null |
TABLE 5
Calculating activation energy variation
L2’10 h, L3’When T is 60K and Δ T is 1 hour, 45 hours, the amount of change in activation energy P from sample 2 'to sample 3' is obtained by using equation (4)m：
ΔEa/Δt＝(LN(45)-LN(10))x8.62 x 10-5x 60＝0.0077791eV/K
Calculated sequentially from B5., Table 6 is obtained: the activation energy variation between adjacent remaining lifetimes varies in a regular manner.
TABLE 6
From the above table, the activation energy variation amount P6An inflection point appears and is a minimum. Display remaining life L614 hours. The reason is as follows: the internal activation energy of the vehicle-mounted controller can cause temperature alternation failure under the temperature load.
The above embodiment is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the present invention in any way, and other variations and modifications may be made without departing from the technical scope of the claims.
Claims (5)
1. A method for predicting the residual life of a vehicle-mounted electronic system is characterized by comprising the following steps: comprises the following steps
B1. In the running process of the vehicle-mounted electronic system, load working condition and evaluation index data are collected in real time through a sensor and stored in an upper computer memory;
B2. determining a critical value M0 of the evaluation index;
B3. resampling the load working condition and the evaluation index at intervals of delta t to obtain a current value Mj of the evaluation index, and calculating the current degradation rate vj of the evaluation index;
B4. calculating the residual life Lj at each moment according to the evaluation index critical value M0 in the B2, the evaluation index current value Mj in the B3 and the degradation rate vj;
B5. calculating the activation energy variation Pm;
B6. when the activation energy variation amount Pm has an inflection point and is the minimum value, displaying the corresponding predicted service life at the moment and informing a user, and when the activation energy variation amount Pm has no inflection point or an inflection point but is not the minimum value, returning to the step B3. continuously calculating;
the calculation formula of the current degradation rate vj in the step B3 is
In the formula, a sampling serial number j is i +1, and if the calculated value of the degradation rate is negative, the absolute value of the degradation rate is taken;
the calculation formula of Pm in the step B5. is
Where m ═ j +1, kbAnd T is a Boltzmann constant and is a temperature change value under a load condition.
2. The method for predicting the remaining life of the vehicle-mounted electronic system according to claim 1, wherein: the load working condition and evaluation index data comprise one or more of ambient temperature, humidity, electronic system current, leakage current, output voltage, resistance and dielectric coefficient.
3. The method for predicting the remaining life of the vehicle-mounted electronic system according to claim 1, wherein: step B6. is to take the earlier sampling time point as the remaining life of the electronic system when the two adjacent activation energy variation amounts are both minimum.
4. The method for predicting the remaining life of the vehicle-mounted electronic system according to claim 2, wherein: and when the evaluation index data comprises a plurality of evaluation index data, respectively predicting the service life of the vehicle-mounted electronic system according to each evaluation index data, and then taking the minimum value as the residual service life L.
5. The method for predicting the remaining life of the vehicle-mounted electronic system according to claim 2, wherein: and B3. delta t is taken as an integral multiple of the least common multiple of the sampling time of different sensors.
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