Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provides a novel regional hydrate deposit structure seabed gas transmission pipeline blockage risk prediction method and system under the influence of an inhibitor, which comprises hydrate generation, transportation, deposition and shedding processes of a seabed pipeline system under the action of the inhibitor. The method realizes the prediction of the blocking risk of the regional submarine gas transmission pipeline, has low cost, wide coverage and high treatment efficiency, and improves the overall safety of submarine pipeline flow.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme: a flow safety early warning method for a seabed gas transmission pipeline with a hydrate deposition structure falling off comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting basic information of all pipelines in the area, wherein the basic information comprises the inner diameter of the pipeline, the outer diameter of the pipeline, the length of the pipeline, the material of the pipeline, the ambient temperature, the type of an inhibitor, the concentration of the inhibitor, the temperature of fluid and the pressure of a fluid inlet; obtaining a hydrate equilibrium triple point through input parameters, fluid pressure and fluid temperature at an inlet of a seabed gas transmission pipeline;
s2, calling a corresponding model from a preset system according to the type and concentration of the inhibitor to obtain the activity of the water of the submarine pipeline system, and calculating to obtain the supercooling degree;
ΔTsub=(teq-ΔtI)-t
ΔTsubrepresented by the degree of supercooling, t, of the control systemeqRepresented by the equilibrium temperature of the control system, t is represented by the temperature of the control system, Δ tIRepresents a shift in equilibrium temperature due to the presence of inhibitor;
ΔtI=-72ln[αW·(1-xI)]
when the inhibitor is a glycol, the inhibitor is,
when the inhibitor is methanol,
when the inhibitor is ethanol,
when the inhibitor is sodium chloride, the inhibitor is,
when the inhibitor is potassium chloride,
αWrepresenting the activity of water in a subsea pipeline system, xIRepresents the molarity of the thermodynamic inhibitor;
the supercooling degree of the pipeline system of the corresponding thermodynamic inhibitor under different concentrations is calculated through a formula arranged in the supercooling degree module; when different pipeline system inhibitors are different, calling different equations from the early warning system to predict the pipeline flow safety;
s3, calculating the hydrate generation amount through a first order kinetic formula of hydrate generation based on the supercooling degree of the pipeline system, and obtaining the variation trend of the hydraulic diameter of the pipeline along with the temperature and the pressure:
wherein
Denotes the amount of hydrate formed per unit time, F
kRepresenting the formation coefficient of hydrates, whose value is related to the flow pattern of the fluid in the submarine pipeline, C
1、C
2Is a constant number, M
gRepresents the average molar mass of the system fluid,
representing the average density of the system fluid, A representing the gas-water interface area in the control system;
A=Adrop+Afilm
wherein A isdropRepresenting the gas-water interface area of the droplets dispersed in the gas phase in the system, AfilmRepresenting the gas-water interface area of a liquid film on the pipe wall of the submarine pipeline in the system;
represents a temperature change per unit length, i.e., a temperature gradient; beta is a
JTRepresents the char water coefficient, U represents the integrated heat transfer coefficient between the fluid and the environment in the control system, T represents the temperature of the fluid in the control system, and T represents the temperature of the fluid in the control system
extRepresenting ambient temperature,. DELTA.H representing hydrate formation being exothermic, Q
mRepresenting the flow rate of fluid in the pipe per unit time, p
mRepresenting the average density of the mixed fluid in the control system, Cp
mRepresenting the heat capacity of the mixed fluid in the control system;
Qm=Qg+Ql
Qgrepresenting the flow rate of gas per unit time in the control system, QlRepresenting the flow rate of liquid per unit time in the control system;
s4, gradually thickening the hydrate film, namely when the water conservancy diameter is reduced, the flowing speed of the fluid in the pipeline is continuously increased, and meanwhile, the flowing shearing force is continuously increased; due to the porous property of the structure of the hydrate film, namely the deposition structure, the deposition structure falls off, so that the water conservancy diameter is increased, and the blocking condition of a local pipeline is temporarily relieved;
σ
wrepresenting flow shear of the pipe system, D
hRepresenting the hydraulic diameter of the piping system,
representing a pressure gradient of the pipeline system;
σw(x,t)=σhDh(x,ts)=Df(x,ts)
σhrepresenting the critical shear force of the hydrate deposit structure, DfRepresents a stable hydrate film structure, tsRepresenting the corresponding time of the falling moment of the hydrate deposition structure;
Dh(x,ts)=Df(x,ts),xs<x<x(ts)
Dh(x,ts)=Df(x,t),x≥x(ts)
xsrepresenting the corresponding place at the moment of the falling off of the hydrate structure;
s5, judging whether the hydrate film falls off or not, updating the hydraulic diameter of the pipeline system when the porous deposition structure falls off, obtaining the pressure difference of the inlet and the outlet of the pipeline according to a pressure drop formula, determining that the submarine pipeline is blocked when the pressure difference of the two ends of the inlet and the outlet of the pipeline reaches a preset value, judging the state of the early warning system, and prompting early warning information for platform equipment;
representing pressure changes per unit length in the pipe, f representing the coefficient of friction, p
nsRepresenting the density of the fluid in the control system without sliding friction, D
hRepresenting hydraulic diameter in a subsea pipeline, v
mRepresenting the flow rate of the mixed fluid within the control system.
According to the method, simulation is carried out through a backward iteration method, the fact that pressure and temperature changes in a control body under the influence of an inhibitor and water conservancy diameter real-time updating caused by instability of a hydrate deposition structure can be known through the formula, pressure difference between the inlet end and the outlet end of a pipeline continuously changes, and finally the pressure difference reaches a preset value of an early warning module, flow safety of the pipeline is simulated and predicted through the parameters, and whether a submarine gas pipeline is blocked or not is judged.
This patent is through introducing droing of hydrate deposition structure for early warning system tracks the dynamic change of pipe-line system water conservancy diameter more easily, and then makes the prediction system more press close to the actual production condition, later recycles the hydrate formation volume in the first-order hydrate formation formula calculation pipeline under the inhibitor effect, thereby more accurate to the time and the place prediction that take place the hydrate jam in the pipeline, more accurate to the flow security judgement of whole system.
The invention also provides a dynamic regional submarine gas pipeline flow safety prediction system, which is used for realizing the regional submarine gas pipeline flow safety prediction method, and comprises the following steps:
the acquisition module is used for collecting basic information of all pipelines in the region, wherein the basic information comprises the inner diameter of the pipeline, the outer diameter of the pipeline, the length of the pipeline, the material of the pipeline, the ambient temperature, the temperature of fluid, the flow of the fluid, the pressure of a fluid inlet, the type, concentration and volume ratio of an inhibitor and the water content ratio;
the supercooling degree module and the thermodynamic inhibitor have been practically applied in the oil and gas field for more than 60 years, have remarkable effects and are adopted by most oil exploitation platforms at present. The module calculates the activity of water according to the concentration of the thermodynamic inhibitor, so as to obtain the supercooling degree of the gas transmission pipeline system;
and the hydrate generation module is used for obtaining the total hydrate generation amount of the system by utilizing a first-order kinetic equation of hydrate generation based on the supercooling degree and the gas-water interface area of the submarine pipeline system. Based on physical conditions, the generation amount of the hydrate cannot be a negative value, so that the condition that no hydrate is generated if the obtained supercooling degree in the supercooling degree module is a negative value or equal to 0 is limited, the condition that the phase change occurs in a pipeline if the supercooling degree is more than 0 is considered, and the heat transfer and the pressure distribution are violently changed due to the phase change.
The hydraulic diameter module, at a low inhibitor concentration, although the hydrate formation is inhibited, still has a certain amount of hydrate formation, most of which will follow the flow of the fluid to the discharge pipeline. A small part of the water flow is settled and attached to the pipe wall due to gravity and flow factors, so that the flow diameter of the fluid is reduced, the quantity describing the flow diameter is called water conservancy diameter, and the water conservancy diameter is the limit of the flow velocity of the fluid in the system under the condition of constant flow of the submarine pipeline;
the module that drops, based on-the-spot result conjecture and laboratory observation, it is two kinds to discover the deposit structure of hydrate in the pipe-line system because its structure divide into compact sclausura stable structure and porous unstable structure, wherein unstable porous structure can take place the phenomenon of droing, this patent has proposed the solution to this kind of phenomenon, utilize the hydraulic diameter of pipeline and the flow shearing force of pressure gradient calculation system, the stress of the unstable structure that flow shearing force and early warning system predetermine in the rethread comparison pipeline, make pipeline water conservancy diameter update, reach hydraulic diameter dynamic change's effect.
The heat transfer module, in this early warning system, the heat transfer module contains 3 bold, is the heat that joule-thomson effect, the interaction and the phase transition of environment produced respectively. Joule-thomson effect refers to the temperature change of the fluid in the pipe flow due to a drastic change in pressure; the environment interaction means that the temperature of fluid transported by a submarine pipeline is usually higher than the environment temperature, so that the temperature of the fluid in the pipeline is continuously reduced to a hydrate stable region in the process of submarine long-distance transportation; the temperature change caused by phase change is easy to generate the hydrate under the conditions of high pressure and low temperature, and the environment of the submarine pipeline is just the hydrate generation interval, and the reaction is an exothermic reaction that gas molecules react with liquid water molecules to become solid.
In the field measurement of the pressure module, due to the particularity of a submarine pipeline system, data capable of being directly detected is limited, most relevant numerical values are obtained in an approximate range through an empirical formula by monitoring pressure changes, and therefore the pressure changes of a fluid inlet and a fluid outlet have great significance for evaluating the flow safety in the whole pipeline system. The pressure drop is increased due to hydrate generation, hydraulic diameter reduction and the like, the viscosity of the fluid is increased due to the hydrate generation, and the system needs larger energy to drive the fluid to advance; the water conservancy diameter of the pipeline is reduced due to adsorption and sedimentation of the hydrate, so that the pressure drop is greatly influenced, and in addition, the pressure difference between an inlet and an outlet is also increased due to the loss of gas and liquid caused by the generation of the hydrate;
and the early warning module is used for giving an early warning to the operating platform or carrying out related pipeline safety operation when the pressure drop before and after the system judges reaches a preset value, such as heating a pipeline or cleaning the pipeline.
The design of the invention simulates physical and chemical changes in the actual flow process of the conveying pipeline, reveals the formation, sedimentation mode and flow blockage condition of the hydrate in the submarine pipeline under the influence of inhibitors with different concentrations, so as to provide reference for the safety scheme design of the submarine pipeline, better provide technical support for the exploitation of the hydrate in the sea area, and have practical and scientific significance. Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
the method has the advantages that the dynamic change of the water conservancy diameter of the pipeline caused by the instability of the sedimentary structure is realized, the problem of the existing prediction of the flow safety of the pipeline is solved, and the vacancy of the prediction and evaluation of the flow safety risk of the existing regional submarine gas transmission pipeline is made up;
according to field data and experimental observation, the layered structure of hydrate deposition is considered, the dynamic change of the hydraulic diameter of the pipeline, namely the dynamic change of the pressure drop of the inlet and the outlet of the pipeline, can be realized, the flow condition of the submarine gas pipeline can be accurately predicted by a prediction system, and the overall safety of the submarine pipeline flow is obviously predicted;
the method can evaluate the regional submarine gas pipeline more accurately, can predict the overall level of the regional submarine pipeline, can process each section of submarine pipeline with different risks more accurately, reduces the transport risk of the submarine pipeline, and changes passive monitoring and processing on the flow safety of the submarine gas pipeline into active prediction and coping.
The method fills the blank of predicting the seabed gas transmission pipeline, and takes the falling of the hydrate deposition structure into consideration of the flowing safety of the pipeline, so that the early warning system is closer to the practical application and can more accurately predict the pipeline blocking time and place.
Detailed Description
S1, collecting basic information of all pipelines in the area, wherein the basic information comprises inner diameters of the pipelines, outer diameters of the pipelines, lengths of the pipelines, materials of the pipelines, ambient temperature, types of inhibitors, concentrations of the inhibitors, fluid temperatures, fluid inlet pressures and the like. Obtaining a hydrate equilibrium triple point through input parameters, fluid pressure and fluid temperature at an inlet of a seabed gas transmission pipeline;
s2, calling a corresponding model from a preset system according to the type and concentration of the inhibitor to obtain the activity of the water of the submarine pipeline system, and calculating the supercooling degree of the submarine gas pipeline system;
s3, calculating the generation amount of the hydrate through a first-order kinetic formula of the generation of the hydrate based on the supercooling degree of the pipeline system, and obtaining the dynamic change of the hydraulic diameter of the pipeline and the change trend of the temperature and the pressure in the pipeline;
s4, when the hydrate film gradually thickens, namely the water conservancy diameter is reduced, the flowing speed of fluid in the pipeline is continuously increased, and meanwhile, the flowing shearing force is continuously increased, and due to the fact that the structure of the hydrate film, namely the porous property of the deposition structure, the deposition structure falls off, the water conservancy diameter is increased, and the blocking condition of a local pipeline is temporarily relieved;
and S5, after judging whether the hydrate film falls off or not, updating the hydraulic diameter of the pipeline system, obtaining the pressure difference of the inlet and the outlet of the pipeline according to a pressure drop formula, determining that the submarine pipeline is blocked when the pressure difference of the two ends of the inlet and the outlet of the pipeline reaches a preset value, judging the state of the early warning system, and prompting early warning information for the platform equipment.
Further, the step S2 includes:
ΔTsub=(teq-ΔtI)-t
ΔTsubrepresented by the degree of supercooling, t, of the control systemeqRepresented by the equilibrium temperature of the control system, t is represented by the temperature of the control system, Δ tIRepresenting a shift in equilibrium temperature due to the presence of inhibitor.
Δt
I=-72ln[α
W·(1-x
I)]&When the inhibitor is ethylene glycol
x
IRepresents the molar concentration of molecules of the thermodynamic inhibitor. The supercooling degrees of the pipeline systems of the corresponding thermodynamic inhibitors at different concentrations can be calculated through the formulas arranged in the three supercooling degree modules. Alpha is alpha
WRepresenting the activity of water in a subsea pipeline system, x
IRepresents the molar concentration of molecules of the thermodynamic inhibitor. Therefore, when different pipeline system inhibitors are different, different equations are called from the early warning system to predict the pipeline flow safety.
Further, the step S3 includes:
wherein
Denotes the amount of hydrate formed per unit time, F
kRepresenting the formation coefficient of hydrates, whose value is related to the flow pattern of the fluid in the submarine pipeline, C
1、C
2Is a constant number, M
gRepresents the average molar mass of the system fluid,
represents the average density of the system fluid and A represents the gas-water interface area in the control system.
A=Adrop+Afilm
Wherein A isdropRepresenting the gas-water interface area of the droplets dispersed in the gas phase in the system, AfilmRepresenting the gas-water interface area of a liquid film on the pipe wall of the submarine pipeline in the system.
Representing the change in temperature per unit length, i.e. the temperature gradient, beta
JTRepresents the char water coefficient, U represents the integrated heat transfer coefficient between the fluid and the environment in the control system, T represents the temperature of the fluid in the control system, and T represents the temperature of the fluid in the control system
extRepresenting ambient temperature,. DELTA.H representing hydrate formation being exothermic, Q
mRepresenting the flow rate of fluid in the pipe per unit time, p
mRepresenting the average density of the mixed fluid in the control system, Cp
mRepresenting the heat capacity of the mixed fluid within the control system.
Qm=Qg+Ql
QgRepresenting the flow rate of gas per unit time in the control system, QlRepresenting the flow rate of liquid per unit time in the control system.
Further, the step S4 includes:
representing flow shear of the pipe system, D
hRepresenting the hydraulic diameter of the piping system,
representing the pressure gradient of the pipe system.
σw(x,t)=σhDh(x,ts)=Df(x,ts)
σhRepresenting the critical shear force of the hydrate deposit structure, DfRepresents a stable hydrate film structure, tsRepresenting the corresponding time at the moment when the hydrate deposit structure falls off.
Dh(x,ts)=Df(x,ts) When x iss<x<x(ts)
Dh(x,ts)=Df(x, t) when x ≧ x (t)s)
xsThe model represents the corresponding place of the shedding moment of the hydrate structure, so that the simulation early warning system can update the hydraulic diameter of the pipeline system after the porous sedimentary structure is shed, and the updated hydraulic diameter is used for simulation prediction in the subsequent iterative calculation.
Further, the step S5 includes:
representing pressure changes per unit length in the pipe, f representing the coefficient of friction, p
nsRepresenting the fluid density in the control system without sliding friction, Dh representing the hydraulic diameter in the subsea pipeline, v
mRepresenting the flow rate of the mixed fluid within the control system.
When the technical scheme is adopted for working, firstly, the equilibrium temperature of the pipeline of the ith section is calculated according to the collected pipeline related data of the ith section and the environment data, then the supercooling degree of the pipeline system of the ith section is calculated, the generation amount of hydrate in the pipeline of the ith section is obtained, then the change value of the hydraulic diameter of the pipeline of the ith section along with time can be obtained, the change of the hydraulic diameter along with time influences the initial state of the temperature and the pressure of the (i + 1) th section, and further, the iteration is carried out continuously, so that all values from the fluid inlet to the fluid outlet are obtained. The specific process is as follows:
(1) and setting initial conditions of the system according to the information collected by the collection module, and calling different formulas according to the types of the inhibitors added in the pipeline system.
The data collected includes: the i-th section of the pipeline D has the environmental temperature t of 277KiInner diameter of 0.02m, i-th section of pipeline DoThe outer diameter is 0.025m, the pipeline length Deltax is 0.2m, the inlet pressure of the ith section is kept consistent with the outlet pressure of the ith-1 section, the inlet temperature of the ith section is kept consistent with the outlet temperature of the ith-1 section, and the gas flow Q of the ith section of pipelineg170L/min, the liquid flow of the pipeline at the i section is 2.0L/min, the inhibitor is ethylene glycol, namely MEG, the formula that the inhibitor is ethylene glycol is called to calculate the activity of water, and further according to the amount of the inhibitor added in the system, for example, the amount concentration of the ethylene glycol in the embodiment is 10%, the supercooling degree of the pipeline system at the i section is about 2.2 ℃.
(2) And when the supercooling degree of the ith section is obtained, judging whether the hydrate is generated according to the supercooling degree.
And (3) because the supercooling degree of the ith section is a value larger than 0, determining that the hydrate is generated in the ith section, calling a hydrate first-order kinetic generation formula, and calculating the generation amount of the hydrate in the ith section to be 0.4L/min. Obtaining the deposition thickness of the hydrate to be 0.002m, and calculating the water conservancy diameter D of the ith section of pipelinehIs 0.018 m. The pressure drop of the i-th section is calculated to be 4.7KPa through a pressure gradient and temperature gradient formula, and the temperature gradient is 0.0118 ℃.
(3) After the pressure drop of the ith section of pipeline system is obtained, the flow shearing force sigma of the ith section of fluid is calculatedwIf σ iswThe value of (a) is greater than sigma preset by the early warning systemhDetermining that the porous loose structure of the hydrate deposit in the i-th section of pipeline falls off, and determining the hydraulic diameter DhAnd (6) updating.
The ith segment sigma is obtained by calculationwThe value is 130Pa, and the stress sigma of the deposition structure set by the pipeline of the early warning systemhAt 125Pa, the porous structure of the hydrate film was considered to be exfoliated. And the data is saved and substituted into the initial condition of the next iteration, namely the (i + 1) th section.
(4) And when the flow safety condition of the pipeline at a certain time t is calculated, subtracting the pressure at the pipeline inlet from the pressure at the pipeline outlet to obtain a pressure difference, and if the pressure difference is greater than a preset value of the early warning system.
The pressure difference value of each 100m pipeline which is monitored by the system in a default mode is 1.2MPa, if the pressure difference value calculated by the simulation system is larger than the pressure difference value, the pipeline is determined to be blocked, and the early warning module is started. If the differential pressure value calculated by the embodiment is 1.0MPa, the pipeline is determined not to be blocked, and the early warning module is not started.
The present invention is not limited to the particular embodiments described herein, but is capable of various obvious changes, rearrangements and substitutions as will now become apparent to those skilled in the art without departing from the scope of the invention. Therefore, although the present invention has been described in greater detail by the above embodiments, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and may include other equivalent embodiments without departing from the spirit of the present invention, and the scope of the present invention is determined by the scope of the appended claims.