CN112966900A - Accessibility evaluation method for endowment institution based on improved potential model - Google Patents

Accessibility evaluation method for endowment institution based on improved potential model Download PDF

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CN112966900A
CN112966900A CN202110149559.0A CN202110149559A CN112966900A CN 112966900 A CN112966900 A CN 112966900A CN 202110149559 A CN202110149559 A CN 202110149559A CN 112966900 A CN112966900 A CN 112966900A
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夏清涛
武田艳
陈震
唐春雷
王旭
张若晨
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Abstract

The invention provides an improved potential model-based accessibility evaluation method for an endowment institution, which introduces a demand side threshold, designs a three-level service radius according to the scale of the endowment institution, improves a potential model by adding a region priority matching principle, takes a residential area as a research unit, and can carry out space accessibility research on the endowment institution for an area based on a GIS technology. The improved potential model considers the factors of subjective and objective levels such as the service radius of the endowment institution, the population number of the old people at the residential site, the limit travel distance (threshold value) and the like, can more scientifically and reasonably measure the accessibility of the space of the endowment institution, can obtain the conditions of endowment resources of the old people in the accuracy quantity area, and provides reference for scientific and effective planning, reasonable site selection and layout of the endowment facilities.

Description

Accessibility evaluation method for endowment institution based on improved potential model
Technical Field
The invention relates to an improved potential model-based accessibility evaluation method for an endowment institution.
Background
The space accessibility is an important reference index for judging whether the layout of various facilities is reasonable. The scientific evaluation of the spatial accessibility of the service facilities is an important basis for judging the difference of regional services and optimizing the spatial configuration of resources. The spatial accessibility of the regional endowment institution is scientifically and reasonably measured, and the regional difference of the regional endowment institution is known, so that a development strategy is specifically formulated, and the method has great significance for realizing spatial fairness and balanced development.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide an improved potential model-based accessibility assessment method for an endowment institution.
In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides an improved potential model-based reachability assessment method for an endowment institution, comprising:
step S1, three-dimensional data of travel time, space and scale of the living points of the endowment institutions and the old people are obtained;
step S2, introducing a Newton universal gravitation model, and constructing a basic potential model on the basis of the model;
step S3, feature consideration variables of the endowment institutions and the population living points of the old people are introduced, the basic potential model is optimized, and an improved potential model is obtained;
step S4, importing the acquired three-dimensional data into Arcgis to create an attribute table, and calculating the accessibility according to the improved potential model based on the attribute table;
and step S5, performing visual analysis on the calculated reachability by using a relevant interpolation method and hot and cold point clustering in an interpolation module of the Arcgis, and accordingly finishing the reachability evaluation of the endowment institution.
Further, in the above method, step S1 includes:
step 1.1: acquiring webpage information of the endowment institution and the elderly population living site by using an API (application programming interface) of a Baidu map and a Gade map, and crawling spatial data of the endowment institution and the elderly population living site in the information by means of a Python program;
step 1.2: inquiring a civil bureau and a statistical bureau official network, and acquiring scale data of the service capacity of the endowment institution and the population living points of the old people, wherein the mechanism for the service capacity of the endowment institution can provide bed numbers for quantification;
step 1.3: and acquiring the shortest driving time from the resident points of the old people to different endowment institutions by means of the path planning function of the Baidu map API.
Further, in the above method, step S2 includes:
step 2.1: by taking the concept of the physical field as a reference, introducing a Newton universal gravitation model into the geographic field;
step 2.2: introducing population scale influence factors Vj on the basis of a Newton universal gravitation model, and constructing a basic potential model:
Figure BDA0002932181910000021
wherein
Figure BDA0002932181910000022
In the formula, PkRepresents the population number at k; m and n respectively represent the number of the elderly population living sites and the elderly care institutions; dkj βRepresenting the impedance between the elderly population dwelling point k and the elderly care institution with a coefficient of friction beta.
Further, in the above method, step S3 includes:
step 3.1: setting a multi-level service radius D according to the service capability of the endowment institutionjSetting effective service radiuses of all levels to be 2 hours, 1 hour and 0.5 hour in sequence according to the levels of 3 large-sized, medium-sized and small-sized endowment institutions;
step 3.2: set the limit travel time D of the oldi(ii) a The principle of priority consideration of the area is combined;
step 3.3: will support the effective service radius of the old organization's grade, the limit trip of the oldTime DiAnd the area self priority consideration principle is used as a characteristic consideration variable, the basic potential model is optimized, and the improved potential model is as follows:
Figure BDA0002932181910000031
wherein
Figure BDA0002932181910000032
In the formula: k represents an elderly population residence point; pkNumber of elderly people 60 years old and older, representing the residential quarters of the elderly population; vjA representative population size factor; sjRepresenting the service capability of the endowment institution; dijRepresenting the time impedance between an aged population living point i and an aged maintenance organization j based on the road network distance; beta is the regional coefficient of friction and the accessibility is measured in bed number per elderly.
Further, in the above method, the step S4 includes:
step 4.1: importing the acquired space data and scale data of the supply and demand endowment institutions and the elderly population living points and the shortest driving time from the elderly population living points to different endowment institutions into Arcgis to create a corresponding attribute list;
step 4.2: based on the attribute table and by means of an improved potential model, the accessibility of the aged population point endowment institution is calculated in two steps:
the first step is to set a search radius d according to the scale of the endowment institution j with the endowment institution j as the center0Calculating the population size influence factor VjAnd Sj/VjIf the endowment means j is an endowment means without any special limitation, the search radius d needs to be set0All demand points P within the range ofk/Dij βSuperposing and summing; if j is an endowment organization with administrative region limitation, only the demand points in the service region are included in the calculation;
secondly, setting a search radius d according to the limit travel distance of the resident point i of the aged population by taking the resident point i of the aged population as a center1Applying the improved potential model to obtain the total supply-demand ratio (reachability) considering the distance attenuation factor, and searching the radius d1All the endowment institutions in the area are not provided with the limited barriers, and then the radius d is searched1All the endowment institution points in the region are involved in calculation; if a certain endowment organization only preferentially serves the local old people, the calculation is not included.
Further, in the above method, the step S5 includes:
step 5.1: comparing statistical errors of several commonly used interpolation methods in the Arcgis, and selecting the interpolation method with the minimum error for interpolation analysis;
step 5.2: and carrying out visual display on the calculated accessibility by means of an interpolation analysis toolbox of Arcgis and hot and cold point analysis, and finishing accessibility evaluation of the endowment institution according to the visual display, thereby proposing a suggestion on space optimization configuration of the endowment institution in the area.
Compared with the prior art, the method introduces a demand side threshold, designs a three-level service radius according to the scale of the endowment institution, improves a potential model according to the principle of adding the preferential matching of the region, takes the residential area as a research unit, and can carry out the spatial accessibility research of the endowment institution on the region based on the GIS technology. The improved potential model considers the factors of subjective and objective levels such as the service radius of the endowment institution, the population number of the old people at the residential site, the limit travel distance (threshold value) and the like, can more scientifically and reasonably measure the accessibility of the space of the endowment institution, can obtain the conditions of endowment resources of the old people in the accuracy quantity area, and provides reference for scientific and effective planning, reasonable site selection and layout of the endowment facilities.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a senior citizens' reachability evaluation method based on an improved potential model according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a spatial distribution diagram of an ancient institution in Shanghai Shangxian district according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of the distribution of the population of the elderly in Shanghai Shangxian district according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an interpolation analysis of accessibility of the endowment institution in Shanghai Fengxian district according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a distribution diagram of accessible cold and hot spots of the aged population in Shanghai Shangxian district according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in further detail below.
As shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides an improved potential model-based method for assessing reachability of an endowment institution, comprising:
step S1, three-dimensional data of travel time, space and scale of the living points of the endowment institutions and the old people are obtained;
step S2, introducing a Newton universal gravitation model, and constructing a basic potential model on the basis of the model;
step S3, feature consideration variables of the endowment institutions and the population living points of the old people are introduced, the basic potential model is optimized, and an improved potential model is obtained;
step S4, importing the acquired three-dimensional data into Arcgis to create an attribute table, and calculating the accessibility according to the improved potential model based on the attribute table;
and step S5, performing visual analysis on the calculated reachability by using a relevant interpolation method and hot and cold point clustering in an interpolation module of the Arcgis, and accordingly finishing the reachability evaluation of the endowment institution.
Preferably, step S1 includes:
step 1.1: acquiring webpage information of the endowment institution and the old people living site by using an API (application program interface) of a Baidu map and a Gade map, and crawling spatial data such as POI (Point of interest) of the endowment institution and the old people living site in the information by using a Python program, wherein the spatial data mainly comprises attributes such as longitude and latitude, names and the like;
step 1.2: inquiring a civil bureau and a statistical bureau official network, and acquiring scale data of the service capacity of the endowment institution and the population living points of the old people, wherein the mechanism for the service capacity of the endowment institution can provide bed numbers for quantification;
step 1.3: by means of a path planning function of a Baidu map API (application program interface), the shortest driving time from an elderly population living point to different endowment institutions is obtained so as to represent travel time data between supply and demand parties.
Preferably, step S2 includes:
step 2.1: by taking the concept of the physical field as a reference, introducing a Newton universal gravitation model into the geographic field;
step 2.2: introducing population scale influence factors Vj on the basis of a Newton universal gravitation model, and constructing a basic potential model:
Figure BDA0002932181910000051
wherein
Figure BDA0002932181910000052
In the formula, PkRepresents the population number at k; m and n respectively represent the number of the elderly population living sites and the elderly care institutions; dkj βRepresenting the impedance between the elderly population dwelling point k and the elderly care institution with a coefficient of friction beta.
Preferably, step S3 includes:
step 3.1: setting a multi-level service radius D according to the service capability of the endowment institutionjSetting the effective service radius of each level to be 2 hours, 1 hour and 0.5 hour in sequence according to the levels of 3 old institutions of large scale (more than 300 beds), medium scale (100-300 beds) and small scale (less than 100 beds);
step 3.2: set the limit travel time D of the oldi(threshold value); the regional self priority consideration principle is combined (administrative 'barriers' are set by part of the endowment institutions, and the regional self priority consideration principle is used for preferentially serving the aged population in the region);
step 3.3: effective service radius of the aged care organization grade and limit travel time D of the oldiAnd the area self priority consideration principle is used as a characteristic consideration variable, the basic potential model is optimized, and the improved potential model is as follows:
Figure BDA0002932181910000061
wherein
Figure BDA0002932181910000062
In the formula: k represents an elderly population residence point; pkNumber of elderly people 60 years old and older, representing the residential quarters of the elderly population; vjA representative population size factor; sjRepresenting the service capability of the endowment institution (the number of beds owned by the institution); dijRepresenting the time impedance (also called time cost) between the elderly population living point i and the elderly care institution j based on the road network distance; beta is the regional coefficient of friction and the accessibility is measured in bed number per elderly.
Preferably, step S4 includes:
step 4.1: importing the acquired space data and scale data of the supply and demand endowment institutions and the elderly population living points and the shortest driving time from the elderly population living points to different endowment institutions into Arcgis to create a corresponding attribute list;
step 4.2: based on the attribute table and by means of an improved potential model, the accessibility of the aged population point endowment institution is calculated in two steps:
the first step is to set a search radius d according to the scale of the endowment institution j with the endowment institution j as the center0Calculating the population size influence factor vjAnd Sj/VjIf the endowment means j is an endowment means without any special limitation, the search radius d needs to be set0All demand points P within the range ofk/Dij βSuperposing and summing; if j is an endowment organization with administrative region limitation, only the demand points in the service region are included in the calculation;
secondly, setting a search radius d according to the limit travel distance of the resident point i of the aged population by taking the resident point i of the aged population as a center1Applying the improved potential model to obtain the total supply-demand ratio (reachability) considering the distance attenuation factor, and searching the radius d1All the endowment institutions in the area are not provided with the limited barriers, and then the radius d is searched1All the endowment mechanisms in the regionPoints are all included in the calculation; if a certain endowment organization only preferentially serves the local old people, the calculation is not included.
Preferably, step S5 includes:
step 5.1: comparing statistical errors of several commonly used interpolation methods in the Arcgis, and selecting the interpolation method with the minimum error for interpolation analysis;
step 5.2: and (4) visually displaying the calculated accessibility by means of an interpolation analysis tool box of Arcgis and a cold-hot spot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi), and finishing accessibility evaluation of the endowment institution according to the calculated accessibility, thereby proposing a suggestion on space optimization configuration of the endowment institution in the region.
Here, the general methods for evaluating the spatial accessibility mainly include: a scale method, a shortest distance method, a spatial syntax, a mobile search method, a potential model method, and the like. Compared with other methods, the potential model method comprehensively considers the air barrier (distance or time) and distance attenuation effects of the supply and demand parties, and can reflect the facility acquisition conditions of the residential points in the research area to a certain extent. When an existing learner uses a potential model to research accessibility of a spatial region, a county or town street is usually selected as a minimum research unit. In fact, such research units still have the characteristic of being large and can only approximately describe the accessibility of the research area. The invention therefore subdivides the research unit into populated areas (residence commissions) and can thus map the differences in accessibility to the different requesting parties to the greatest possible extent.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention introduces a demand side threshold, designs a three-level service radius according to the scale of the endowment institution, improves a potential model by adding a region priority matching principle, takes a residential area as a research unit, and can carry out spatial accessibility research on the endowment institution for the region based on a GIS technology. The improved potential model considers the factors of subjective and objective levels such as the service radius of the endowment institution, the population number of the old people at the residential site, the limit travel distance (threshold value) and the like, can more scientifically and reasonably measure the accessibility of the space of the endowment institution, can obtain the conditions of endowment resources of the old people in the accuracy quantity area, and provides reference for scientific and effective planning, reasonable site selection and layout of the endowment facilities.
Specifically, in this example, the step S1 includes:
step 1.1: logging in a Baidu and God map open platform, acquiring an application key, acquiring webpage information of an ancient institution and an old person oral point (village, living committee) in Shanghai Shangxian area through an API (application programming interface), and crawling spatial data such as POI (Point of interest) of the institution and the old person in the information by means of an autonomously developed Python program, wherein the spatial data mainly comprises attributes such as longitude and latitude, names and the like;
step 1.2: logging in the civil government office official network of Shanghai city Fengxian district to acquire the number S of beds owned by the endowment institution in the districtjMeanwhile, the data of the aged population above 60 years of the town street committee and the village committee are obtained through the district statistical bureau. Respectively importing the two types of data into Arcgis, and drawing a distribution diagram of the ancient institutions in the Fengxian area and the population of the old people, wherein the detailed diagram is shown in FIGS. 2 and 3;
step 1.3: by taking the geographic position of each living committee (village committee) in the sagexin area as an initial position and the position of an aging institution as an end point, acquiring the shortest time required by driving between the two points by means of a route planning function in an API (application program interface) of an open platform network service of a Baidu map;
step S2 is to introduce a gravitation model according to the literature reading method and add a population scale influencing factor VjConstructing a basic potential model;
in this example, the step S3 is to set a multi-level service radius D for introducing the service capability of the senior citizen' S institution into the modeljAnd setting limit travel time D of the old in Fengxian districtiAdding a region self priority consideration principle, and constructing a final potential model:
Figure BDA0002932181910000081
wherein
Figure BDA0002932181910000082
In the formula: k represents a residential point; pkRepresenting the population of the elderly, with a population count of 60 years and older; vjRepresentsA population size factor; sjExpressing the service capability (the number of beds owned by the institution) of the endowment institution in the Fengxian region; dijRepresenting the time impedance (also called time cost) between the elderly population living point i and the elderly care institution j based on the road network distance; β is the regional coefficient of friction, which in this example takes the value 1; the accessibility dimension is the number of beds/aged person, multiplied by 1000 in the final result.
In this embodiment, the step S4 includes:
step 4.1: importing the obtained POI, scale and other data of the supply and demand parties (the endowment institution and the elderly population) in the Shanghai Shangxian district into Arcgis to create a corresponding attribute table.
Step 4.2: firstly, setting a search radius d according to the scale of j by taking any one of endowment institutions j in Fengxian district of the Shanghai city as the center0Calculating the population size influence factor VjAnd Sj/Vj. If j is an aging institution without special restriction, all the demand points P in the search range need to be searchedk/Dij βSuperposing and summing; if j indicates an endowment organization with administrative region limitation, only the demand points in the service region need to be included in the calculation. Secondly, setting a search radius d according to the limit travel distance of any one of the elderly population demand points i in the Fengxian area as a center1And applying an improved potential model to obtain the total supply-demand ratio (accessibility) considering the distance attenuation factor. If all the endowment institutions in the search area are not provided with the limiting barriers, all the endowment institution points in the range need to be included in the calculation; if an organization only preferentially serves the local elderly population, no calculations are included. Finally, the accessibility of any rural committee and living committee endowment institution in the Fengxian district of Shanghai city can be obtained.
In this embodiment, the step S5 includes:
step 5.1: the MEAN error value (MEAN) and the Root MEAN Square Error (RMSE) of four interpolation methods of a trend surface fitting model, an IDW model, a Splines model and a Kriging model are compared, and the condition that the common Kriging model is most suitable to use is determined;
step 5.2: the spatial accessibility interpolation analysis and the cold-hot spot cluster analysis (Getis-Ord Gi) of the ancient institution in the ancient culture area are respectively carried out by means of the Arcgis interpolation module and the cluster analysis module, and the visualization results are detailed in a figure 4 and a figure 5.
The figure shows that the spatial accessibility distribution of the ancient institution in the Fengxian area considering the priority principle is intensified, wherein the spatial accessibility of the ancient institution in the central part area is obviously higher, and the accessibility of the coastal area is obviously lower; the accessibility shows a more obvious trend of gradually reducing from the central urban area to the periphery; some villages and towns in the middle area have the phenomenon that endowment mechanisms are dense and endowment resources are relatively concentrated.
The embodiments in the present description are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other.
Those of skill would further appreciate that the various illustrative elements and algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware, computer software, or combinations of both, and that the various illustrative components and steps have been described above generally in terms of their functionality in order to clearly illustrate this interchangeability of hardware and software. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the implementation. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present invention. It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made in the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Thus, if such modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalents, the present invention is also intended to include such modifications and variations.

Claims (6)

1. An improved potential model-based accessibility assessment method for an endowment institution, which is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1, three-dimensional data of travel time, space and scale of the living points of the endowment institutions and the old people are obtained;
step S2, introducing a Newton universal gravitation model, and constructing a basic potential model on the basis of the model;
step S3, feature consideration variables of the endowment institutions and the population living points of the old people are introduced, the basic potential model is optimized, and an improved potential model is obtained;
step S4, importing the acquired three-dimensional data into Arcgis to create an attribute table, and calculating the accessibility according to the improved potential model based on the attribute table;
and step S5, performing visual analysis on the calculated reachability by using a relevant interpolation method and hot and cold point clustering in an interpolation module of the Arcgis, and accordingly finishing the reachability evaluation of the endowment institution.
2. The improved potential energy model-based endowment institution reachability evaluation method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S1 comprises:
step 1.1: acquiring webpage information of the endowment institution and the elderly population living site by using an API (application programming interface) of a Baidu map and a Gade map, and crawling spatial data of the endowment institution and the elderly population living site in the information by means of a Python program;
step 1.2: inquiring a civil bureau and a statistical bureau official network, and acquiring scale data of the service capacity of the endowment institution and the population living points of the old people, wherein the mechanism for the service capacity of the endowment institution can provide bed numbers for quantification;
step 1.3: and acquiring the shortest driving time from the resident points of the old people to different endowment institutions by means of the path planning function of the Baidu map API.
3. The improved potential energy model-based endowment institution reachability evaluation method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S2 comprises:
step 2.1: by taking the concept of the physical field as a reference, introducing a Newton universal gravitation model into the geographic field;
step 2.2: introducing population scale influence factor V on the basis of Newton universal gravitation modeljConstructing a basic potential model:
Figure FDA0002932181900000021
wherein
Figure FDA0002932181900000022
In the formula, PkRepresents the population number at k; m and n respectively represent the number of the elderly population living sites and the elderly care institutions; dkj βRepresenting the impedance between the elderly population dwelling point k and the elderly care institution with a coefficient of friction beta.
4. The improved potential energy model-based endowment institution reachability evaluation method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S3 comprises:
step 3.1: setting a multi-level service radius D according to the service capability of the endowment institutionjSetting effective service radiuses of all levels to be 2 hours, 1 hour and 0.5 hour in sequence according to the levels of 3 large-sized, medium-sized and small-sized endowment institutions;
step 3.2: set the limit travel time D of the oldi(ii) a The principle of priority consideration of the area is combined;
step 3.3: effective service radius of the aged care organization grade and limit travel time D of the oldiAnd the area self priority consideration principle is used as a characteristic consideration variable, the basic potential model is optimized, and the improved potential model is as follows:
Figure FDA0002932181900000023
wherein
Figure FDA0002932181900000024
In the formula: k represents an elderly population residence point; pkNumber of elderly people 60 years old and older, representing the residential quarters of the elderly population; vjA representative population size factor; sjRepresenting the service capability of the endowment institution;Dijrepresenting the time impedance between an aged population living point i and an aged maintenance organization j based on the road network distance; beta is the regional coefficient of friction and the accessibility is measured in bed number per elderly.
5. The improved potential energy model-based endowment institution reachability evaluation method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S4 comprises:
step 4.1: importing the acquired space data and scale data of the supply and demand endowment institutions and the elderly population living points and the shortest driving time from the elderly population living points to different endowment institutions into Arcgis to create a corresponding attribute list;
step 4.2: based on the attribute table and by means of an improved potential model, the accessibility of the aged population point endowment institution is calculated in two steps:
the first step is to set a search radius d according to the scale of the endowment institution j with the endowment institution j as the center0Calculating the population size influence factor VjAnd Sj/VjIf the endowment means j is an endowment means without any special limitation, the search radius d needs to be set0All demand points P within the range ofk/Dij βSuperposing and summing; if j is an endowment organization with administrative region limitation, only the demand points in the service region are included in the calculation;
secondly, setting a search radius d according to the limit travel distance of the resident point i of the aged population by taking the resident point i of the aged population as a center1Applying the improved potential model to obtain the total supply-demand ratio (reachability) considering the distance attenuation factor, and searching the radius d1All the endowment institutions in the area are not provided with the limited barriers, and then the radius d is searched1All the endowment institution points in the region are involved in calculation; if a certain endowment organization only preferentially serves the local old people, the calculation is not included.
6. The improved potential energy model-based endowment institution reachability evaluation method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S5 comprises:
step 5.1: comparing statistical errors of several commonly used interpolation methods in the Arcgis, and selecting the interpolation method with the minimum error for interpolation analysis;
step 5.2: and carrying out visual display on the calculated accessibility by means of an interpolation analysis toolbox of Arcgis and hot and cold point analysis, and finishing accessibility evaluation of the endowment institution according to the visual display, thereby proposing a suggestion on space optimization configuration of the endowment institution in the area.
CN202110149559.0A 2021-02-03 2021-02-03 Accessibility evaluation method for endowment institution based on improved potential model Pending CN112966900A (en)

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