CN112837507A

CN112837507A - Sea wave pre-alarm quality evaluation method and device

Info

Publication number: CN112837507A
Application number: CN202110171017.3A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 姚圣康; 徐丽丽; 郑晓琴; 梁颖瑜; 管琴乐; 张婕
Original assignee: State Oceanic Administration East China Sea Forecast Center
Current assignee: State Oceanic Administration East China Sea Forecast Center
Priority date: 2021-02-08
Filing date: 2021-02-08
Publication date: 2021-05-25

Abstract

The invention provides a method and a device for evaluating the quality of a wave pre-alarm, which comprises the following steps: acquiring inspection and evaluation elements of sea wave pre-alarming, pre-alarming data to be detected and live observation data; if the pre-alarm data has trend change, dividing the forecast aging of the pre-alarm data into a change time period and a non-change time period, and determining the change time period of the forecast aging, the evaluation information of the change time period and the evaluation information of the non-change time period; performing quality evaluation on the pre-warning data of each time period according to the evaluation information and the observation information of each time period; and if the cyclone occurs within the forecast time limit, judging whether the quality evaluation is effective according to whether the center of the live cyclone enters the forecast sea area and the distance between the center of the live cyclone and the observation point. The invention can solve the problem of quantitative evaluation of trend change and cyclone influence in the sea wave pre-warning, and improves the objectivity, scientificity and fairness of evaluation.

Description

Sea wave pre-alarm quality evaluation method and device

Technical Field

The invention relates to the technical field of ocean forecast inspection, in particular to a method and a device for evaluating the wave pre-alarm quality, which do not relate to wave numerical forecast.

Background

Wave forecasting in China began in 1966, and wave warning began in 2007. The national unified wave forecasting and alarm issuing standard was implemented in 2006 (GB/T19721.2-2005). In 2017, after improvement and enrichment are carried out on sea wave alarm level division, pre-alarm content, release formats, release modes and the like, a new standard is released (GB/T19721.2-2017).

The sea wave forecasting and alarming quality is closely related to the marine disaster prevention and reduction and the lives and properties of people in China, so that the quality evaluation of the issued forecasting and alarming is an important link in the marine forecasting service work, and is also an important standard of the management department in the aspects of quality evaluation of marine forecasting mechanisms at all levels, classification and grading of forecaster and the like.

The national standard GB/T19721.2-2017 mainly specifies the release frequency, format, timeliness, content and the like, no clear regulation is provided on the release mode of the wave height value and the wave direction, wave height and/or wave direction exist in the wave forecast released by various levels of ocean forecasting mechanisms in China at present, and alarm levels and wave height exist in the wave alarm. Wherein, the forecast types of wave height, wave direction and alarm level are shown in table 1; the trend changes of the distribution wave height, the wave direction and the alarm level are greatly different, the trend changes are not forecasted in some cases, and the trend changes are forecasted in some cases but not forecasted in the trend change time period, as shown in table 2.

The ocean wave observation data are less, the early wave pre-alarm quality evaluation main method is to evaluate according to three wave real-time analysis graphs at 08, 14 and 20 hours every day, and the forecast quality belongs to subjective evaluation because real-time data obtained by various ocean forecasting mechanisms are different and the deviation of the analyzed real-time graphs is larger, and the method has no scientific and unified evaluation method and standard evaluation flow and lacks objectivity, scientificity and fairness.

In 2010, the quantity of ocean buoys distributed offshore in China is gradually increased, nearly 50 large ocean buoys distributed offshore in China are up to 2020, small buoys are distributed on main shore sections along the shore, most forecast sea areas at 125 degrees in the west are almost covered, and the quality of the distributed wave pre-warning alarm is inspected and evaluated by using live observation data. In order to improve the technical level of the ocean forecast service, it is necessary to apply the live observation data to quantitatively evaluate the issued pre-alarms.

TABLE 1 wave height, wave direction, alarm level forecast types

TABLE 2 wave Pre-alarm trend Change types

In the quantitative evaluation process, how to solve the problem that a live observation point is an area on the sea and a forecast sea area is an area, and when the trend of sea wave forecast changes, how to scientifically and objectively evaluate is a problem worthy of being solved.

Disclosure of Invention

The invention aims to provide a method and a device for evaluating the quality of a wave pre-alarm, which are used for solving the problem of quantitative evaluation when the trend of the wave pre-alarm changes in the prior art.

The technical scheme provided by the invention is as follows:

a wave pre-alarm quality assessment method comprises the following steps: acquiring inspection and evaluation elements of the wave pre-alarm, wherein the inspection and evaluation elements comprise one or more of wave height, wave direction and alarm level; acquiring pre-alarm data to be detected of the inspection and evaluation elements and live observation data within forecast timeliness of the pre-alarm data; if the pre-alarm data has trend change, dividing the forecast aging of the pre-alarm data into a change time period and a non-change time period, determining the change time period of the forecast aging and the evaluation information of the change time period, and determining the evaluation information of the non-change time period and the non-change time period according to the change time period; acquiring observation information of each time period of the forecast aging according to the live observation data; and evaluating the forecast quality of each time period according to the evaluation information and the observation information of each time period.

The invention also provides a wave pre-warning quality evaluation device, which comprises: the wave pre-alarming system comprises an information acquisition module, a data processing module and a data processing module, wherein the information acquisition module is used for acquiring inspection and evaluation elements of wave pre-alarming, and the inspection and evaluation elements comprise one or more of wave height, wave direction and alarming level; acquiring pre-alarm data to be detected of the inspection and evaluation elements and live observation data within forecast timeliness of the pre-alarm data; the evaluation information determining module is used for dividing the forecast aging of the pre-warning data into a change time period and a non-change time period if the pre-warning data has trend change, determining the change time period of the forecast aging and the evaluation information of the change time period, and determining the evaluation information of the non-change time period and the non-change time period according to the change time period; the forecast quality evaluation module is used for acquiring observation information of each time period of the forecast aging according to the live observation data; and evaluating the forecast quality of each time period according to the evaluation information and the observation information of each time period.

The method and the device for evaluating the pre-alarm quality of the sea waves provided by the invention can at least bring the following beneficial effects:

1. according to the invention, the forecast quality is evaluated by determining the change time periods and the evaluation information thereof and combining the evaluation information of each time period with the observation information, so that the difficult problem of evaluation of trend change in the sea wave pre-warning is solved, and the objectivity, scientificity and fairness of evaluation are improved.

2. The invention solves the problem of point-to-surface problem existing in the cyclone influence by judging whether the cyclone enters the forecast sea area in the forecast time period and whether the cyclone is far from the observation point.

3. The invention improves the quality of the pre-warning products of sea waves, promotes the forecaster to improve the forecasting level, and further improves the disaster prevention and reduction emergency service capability of each level of forecasting mechanisms.

Drawings

The above features, technical features, advantages and implementations of a method and apparatus for evaluating the quality of a wave pre-warning will be further described in the following detailed description of preferred embodiments in a clearly understandable manner with reference to the accompanying drawings.

FIG. 1 is a flow chart of one embodiment of a wave pre-alarm quality assessment method of the present invention;

FIG. 2 is a flow diagram for one embodiment of step S500 of FIG. 1 for wave quality assessment;

FIG. 3 is a flow diagram for one embodiment of step S500 of FIG. 1 for wave direction quality assessment;

FIG. 4 is a flow diagram for one embodiment of step S500 of FIG. 1 for alarm level quality assessment;

FIG. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of one embodiment of the wave pre-warning quality assessment apparatus of the present invention;

FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of the structure of one embodiment of the single-session evaluation unit of FIG. 5 for wave quality evaluation;

FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of the single-period evaluation unit of FIG. 5 for wave direction quality evaluation;

FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of the single-session evaluation unit of FIG. 5 for alarm level quality evaluation.

Detailed Description

In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following description will be made with reference to the accompanying drawings. It is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some examples of the invention, and that for a person skilled in the art, other drawings and embodiments can be derived from them without inventive effort.

For the sake of simplicity, the drawings only schematically show the parts relevant to the present invention, and they do not represent the actual structure as a product. In addition, in order to make the drawings concise and understandable, components having the same structure or function in some of the drawings are only schematically depicted, or only one of them is labeled. In this document, "one" means not only "only one" but also a case of "more than one".

In an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 1, a method for evaluating the pre-alarm quality of ocean waves includes:

step S100, obtaining inspection and evaluation elements of the wave pre-alarm.

The inspection evaluation elements of the wave pre-alarm comprise one or more of wave height, wave direction and alarm level, wherein the wave height is effective wave height, and the wave direction is main wave direction. If the test evaluation elements have multiple types, the forecast quality of each element is evaluated respectively. For example, the check evaluation elements in the wave forecast can be wave height and wave direction, and the check evaluation elements in the wave alarm can be alarm level and wave height.

Since the wave height forecast quality evaluation of the sea wave alarm is completely the same as the wave height forecast quality evaluation method of the sea wave forecast, the following description is only given by way of example from the wave height, the wave direction and the alarm level of the sea wave alarm of the sea wave forecast, and the wave height forecast quality evaluation of the sea wave alarm can refer to the wave height forecast quality evaluation example of the sea wave forecast.

Step S200 acquires pre-warning data to be detected of the inspection evaluation element and live observation data within the forecast time of the pre-warning data.

Wave pre-warning data and wave live observation data (data measured from a sea live observation point) in a pre-warning sea area are obtained, and pre-warning data and corresponding live observation data of the inspection and evaluation elements are obtained.

For example, the wave height and the wave direction of the sea wave forecast are checked and evaluated, and the wave height forecast and the wave direction forecast are respectively obtained from the published sea wave forecast. And if the alarm level and the wave height of the sea wave alarm are checked and evaluated, respectively acquiring an alarm level and a wave height forecast from the issued sea wave alarm.

Forecasting the time period of validity refers to the time period of validity of forecasting, generally starting from the time of publishing of forecasting and continuing to forecast the time period of validity. Since the wave alarm is generally issued in advance, the forecast timeliness of the pre-alarm data of the inspection and evaluation elements acquired from the wave alarm is a time period of continuing the forecast effective time from the alarm issuing time delayed by the preset time. Since whether to delay the preset time only affects the specific numerical value of the forecast time without affecting the logic of the present invention, for simplicity, the following description is based on advance issuance without considering alarms.

For example, taking the estimated wave height as an example, the predicted wave height of a certain sea wave issued at 08 m is 2.0-3.0 m, which is the pre-alarm data to be detected, and taking the effective prediction time of 24 hours as an example, the prediction time is (09 hours to 08 hours) in the next day. And the wave height observation data in the forecast time is the live observation data corresponding to the pre-alarm data.

Step S300 determines whether there is a trend change in the pre-warning data.

Specifically, the wave pre-warning mode includes:

the first form of forecasting: the trend is not changed, such as sea wave forecast NE2.0-3.0 (namely wave direction NE, wave height 2.0-3.0 m), and sea wave alarm blue 2.5-3.0 (namely alarm level blue, wave height 2.5-3.0 m).

The second form of forecasting: there is a trend change and there is a definite period of change. Such as: sea wave forecast NE2.0-3.0 PM SE 3.0-4.0 (wave height changes from 2.0-3.0 m PM to 3.0-4.0 m PM, wave direction changes from NE PM to SE); sea wave alarm blue 2.5-3.0 pm yellow 3.5-4.0 (i.e. alarm level changes from blue pm to yellow, wave height changes from 2.5-3.0 m pm to 3.5-4.0 m); the change trend is included, and the change time interval is afternoon.

The third form of forecasting: there was a trend change with no period of change. For example, sea wave forecast NE2.0-3.0 → SE 3.0-4.0 (wave height changes from 2.0-3.0 m to 3.0-4.0 m, wave direction NE changes to SE), sea wave alarm blue 2.5-3.0 → yellow 3.5-4.0 (i.e. alarm level changes from blue to yellow, wave height changes from 2.5-3.0 m to 3.5-4.0 m); including a trend of change with no period of change.

In step S310, if the pre-warning data does not have a trend change, the forecast aging of the pre-warning data corresponds to a time period, and the evaluation information of the time period is determined according to the pre-warning data.

For pre-warning data (i.e. the first form of forecasting) where there is no trend change, the whole forecasting age corresponds to one time period. For example, taking a sea wave forecast NE2.0-3.0 m in a certain sea area issued at 08 hours as an example, the pre-warning data of the wave height is 2.0-3.0, the pre-warning data of the wave direction is NE, the forecast time period is (09 hours to 08 hours in the next day), and the whole forecast time period corresponds to a time period.

The assessment information is information derived from the pre-alarm data for verification assessment. For the pre-alarm data of the interval value type, the average value thereof is adopted as the corresponding evaluation information. For example, the pre-alarm data of the wave height is 2.0-3.0 meters, and the corresponding evaluation information is 2.5 meters (also called evaluation wave height). For a single value type of pre-warning data, its evaluation information is equal to the pre-warning data.

The pre-alarm data NE of wave direction, the evaluation information (also called evaluation wave direction) is NE. For the symbol type pre-alarm data, it needs to be converted into a corresponding numerical value as evaluation information in practical application. But for ease of description, the present application continues to symbolize evaluation information. For example, the wave direction is represented by azimuth in the prediction, and different azimuths correspond to different angles, and in practical application, the predicted wave direction (azimuth) needs to be converted into a corresponding estimated wave direction (degree) according to the following wave direction conversion table.

TABLE 3 conversion table of forecast wave direction (azimuth) and evaluation wave direction (degree)

Similar situations exist for the alarm level, which in practice needs to be converted to a corresponding numerical level. For ease of description, the present application continues to literally represent assessment information.

For another example, taking a sea wave alarm of a certain sea area issued at 08 m as blue 2.5-3.0 m as an example, the pre-alarm data of the alarm level is blue, and the evaluation information of the alarm level is equal to the pre-alarm data; the forecast age (also called alarm age) is (09 hours to 08 hours) regardless of the advance release.

In step S320, if the pre-warning data has a trend change, the forecast aging of the pre-warning data is divided into a change time period and a non-change time period, and the change time period of the forecast aging and the evaluation information of the change time period are determined.

Step S321 determines the non-varying time period of the forecast aging and the evaluation information of the non-varying time period according to the varying time period of the forecast aging.

Specifically, if the pre-warning data has trend change, the forecast aging is divided into at least two time periods, and each time period belongs to a change time period or a non-change time period.

The minimum unit of the time period is the forecast time period. The current ocean forecast time period is shown in table 4, and can be adjusted theoretically, which is not limited by the present application.

TABLE 4 forecast time periods and their corresponding time ranges

Forecast time period	Beijing time
		Daytime	08:00～20:00
Night time	20:00～08:00
		Morning (am)	05:00～08:00
In the morning	08:00～11:00
		Noon is a Chinese traditional musical instrument	11:00～14:00
In the afternoon	14:00～17:00
		In the evening	17:00～20:00
Last half night	20:00～23:00
		In the middle of the night	23:00～02:00
In the middle of the night	02:00～05:00

With respect to the previous period, a period in which the evaluation information has changed is referred to as a changed period, a period in which the evaluation information has not changed is referred to as an unchanged period, and the unchanged period inherits the evaluation information of the previous period. If the pre-alarm data has N trend changes, N change time periods exist in the corresponding forecast timeliness.

And when all the changed time periods are determined, the time period left in the forecast aging is a non-changed time period. The first time period is a non-varying time period, and evaluation information thereof is acquired from the pre-warning data. And the evaluation information of other non-change time periods is determined according to the principle that the non-change time period inherits the evaluation information of the previous time period. Therefore, in the forecast quality evaluation of the pre-warning data with trend changes, the key is to determine the change time period of forecast aging and the evaluation information of the change time period.

If the pre-alarm data has trend change and contains change time periods (namely, the pre-alarm data adopts a second forecasting form), determining the change time period of forecasting time according to the change time periods of the pre-alarm data, and determining the evaluation information of the change time period according to the trend change of the pre-alarm data (namely, the evaluation information of the change time periods in the pre-alarm data).

For example, taking the wave height forecast of the sea wave forecast released at 08 pm of 2.0-3.0 pm of 3.0-4.0 as an example, the forecast time is (09 pm to 08 pm), and the change time period is pm (14: 00-17: 00). Therefore, the forecast time period is divided into three sections, namely a first time period (09: 00-13: 00, non-change time period), a second time period (14: 00-17: 00, change time period) and a third time period (18: 00-08 days, non-change time period). The evaluation information of the first time period is 2.5 (namely, the forecast wave height is averaged to be 2.0-3.0); the second time period is a change time period, and the evaluation information of the change time period in the pre-alarm data is taken as the evaluation information of the change time period, namely the evaluation wave height is 3.5; the third time period is a non-change time period, and inherits the evaluation information of the previous time period, namely the evaluation wave height is 3.5.

For another example, taking the wave height forecast 2.0-3.0 issued at 08 hours, the first half night 3.0-4.0, the second half night 4.0-5.0 as an example, the forecast aging is (09 hours to 08 days), and there are two variation periods, namely, the first half night (20: 00-23: 00) and the second half night (02: 00-05: 00 on the second day), so the forecast aging is divided into five periods, namely, the first period (09: 00-19: 00, non-variation period), the second period (20: 00-23: 00, first variation period), the third period (23: 00-02: 00, non-variation period), the fourth period (02: 00-05, second variation period) and the fifth period (06: 00-08, non-variation period). The evaluation information of the first variation period was 3.5 (first trend variation), and the evaluation information of the second variation period was 4.5 (second trend variation). The evaluation information of the first to fifth periods is the evaluation wave heights 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, and 4.5, respectively.

For another example, taking the wave direction forecast "E afternoon SE" of the wave forecast issued at 08 as an example, the forecast time is (09 hours to 08 days), and there is a change period, which is afternoon (14:00 to 17: 00). The forecast time period is divided into three sections, namely a first time period (09: 00-13: 00, non-change time period), a second time period (14: 00-17: 00, change time period) and a third time period (18: 00-08 days, non-change time period). The evaluation wave directions of the first time period to the third time period are respectively as follows: E. SE, SE.

For another example, taking the alarm level "blue afternoon yellow" of the wave alarm issued at 08 as an example, the forecast time is (09 hours to 08 days), and the forecast has a change time period, which is afternoon (14:00 to 17: 00). The forecast time period is divided into three sections, namely a first time period (09: 00-13: 00, non-change time period), a second time period (14: 00-17: 00, change time period) and a third time period (18: 00-08 days, non-change time period). The evaluation wave directions of the first time period to the third time period are respectively as follows: blue, yellow.

If the pre-warning data has trend change and does not contain a change time period (namely the pre-warning data adopts a third forecasting form), determining a change time period for forecasting the aging according to the live observation data, and determining the evaluation information of the change time period according to the trend change of the pre-warning data.

Searching for live observation data from a second forecast period of forecast timeliness; if the observation information reaching the trend change is obtained in the searching process, the forecast time period in which the observation time point of the observation information reaching the first time is located is used as the change time period for forecasting the aging, and the evaluation information corresponding to the trend change is used as the evaluation information of the change time period.

For example, taking the wave height forecast of the sea wave forecast issued at 08 th 2.0-3.0 → 3.0-4.0 as an example, the forecast adopts a third forecast form, and the forecast time is (09 th-08 th day). And (3) searching live observation data from a second forecast time period (the first forecast time period is morning, the second forecast time period is noon, and 11 noon in the example) of forecasting the aging, assuming that the wave height is increased to 3.5 m at 15 hours, namely the trend change is achieved, the wave height is the observation time point of the observation information which is reached at the first time at 15 hours, and taking the forecast time period (14: 00-17: 00 at afternoon) at 15 hours as the change time period of forecasting the aging. The evaluation information (evaluation wave height 3.5) corresponding to the trend change is taken as the evaluation information of the change period.

Therefore, the forecast time period is divided into three sections, namely a first time period (09: 00-13: 00, non-change time period), a second time period (14: 00-17: 00, change time period) and a third time period (18: 00-08 days, non-change time period). The evaluation information of the first time period to the third time period is evaluation wave heights 2.5, 3.5 and 3.5 respectively.

For another example, taking the wave direction prediction "E → SE" of the wave prediction issued at 08 as an example, the prediction time period is (09 hours to 08 hours) by using the third prediction mode. And (3) searching live observation data from the second forecast time period (11 noon) of the forecast aging, and assuming that the wave direction is SE at 15, namely the trend change is reached, the wave direction is the first observed time point of the observation information at 15, and taking the forecast time period (14: 00-17: 00 in the afternoon) at 15 as the change time period of the forecast aging. The trend change (SE) serves as evaluation information of the change time period.

Therefore, the forecast time period is divided into three sections, namely a first time period (09: 00-13: 00, non-change time period), a second time period (14: 00-17: 00, change time period) and a third time period (18: 00-08 days, non-change time period). The evaluation wave directions of the first time period to the third time period are respectively as follows: E. SE, SE.

For another example, taking the alarm level "blue → yellow" of the wave alarm issued at 08 hours as an example, the forecast aging is (09 hours to 08 days), the live observation data is searched from the second forecast time period (11 hours) of the forecast aging, and if the observation level corresponding to the maximum wave height at 15 hours reaches the trend change (i.e., the yellow level), 15 hours is the observation time point of the observation information which is reached first, and the forecast time period (i.e., 14:00 to 17:00 in the afternoon) at 15 hours is taken as the change time period of the forecast aging. The trend change (yellow) serves as evaluation information of the change period.

Therefore, the forecast time period is divided into three sections, namely a first time period (09: 00-13: 00, non-change time period), a second time period (14: 00-17: 00, change time period) and a third time period (18: 00-08 days, non-change time period). The alarm levels of the first time period to the third time period are respectively as follows: blue, yellow.

Further, if the observation time point of the observation information which is reached first is in a plurality of forecast time periods, the forecast time period which is reached first is taken as the change time period of the forecast time effectiveness.

For example, taking the wave height forecast of the wave forecast released at 08 th 2.0-3.0 → 3.0-4.0 as an example, if the wave height is increased to 3.5 m when 14 th is measured in the search of the live observation data, 14 th is the observation time point of the observation information which reaches the trend change first. And when the time is 14 hours in two forecast periods (11: 00-14: 00 noon and 14: 00-17: 00 afternoon), taking the forecast period which reaches first as the change period of forecast aging, namely, the noon as the change period of forecast aging. The trend changes as evaluation information of the change time period.

Therefore, the forecast time period is divided into three sections, namely a first time period (09: 00-10: 00, non-change time period), a second time period (11: 00-14: 00, change time period) and a third time period (15: 00-08 days, non-change time period). The evaluation information of the first time period to the third time period is evaluation wave heights 2.5, 3.5 and 3.5 respectively.

For another example, taking the wave direction prediction "E → SE" of the wave prediction issued at 08 as an example, if the wave direction is SE at 14, that is, the trend change is reached, in the search of the live observation data, 14 is the observation time point of the observation information which is reached first. And when the time is 14 hours in two forecast periods (11: 00-14: 00 noon and 14: 00-17: 00 afternoon), taking the forecast period which reaches first as the change period of forecast aging, namely, the noon as the change period of forecast aging. The trend changes as evaluation information of the change period.

The forecast time is divided into three sections, namely a first time section (09: 00-10: 00, non-change time section), a second time section (11: 00-14: 00, change time section) and a third time section (15: 00-08 days, non-change time section). The evaluation wave directions of the first time period to the third time period are respectively as follows: E. SE, SE.

For another example, taking the warning level "blue → yellow" of the wave warning issued at 08 as an example, the forecast time period is (09 hours to 08 days), live observation data is searched from the second forecast time period (11 noon) of the forecast time period, and if the observation level corresponding to the maximum wave height value at 14 reaches the trend change (i.e., the yellow level), 14 hours is the observation time point of the observation information which is reached first. And when the time is 14 hours in two forecast periods (11: 00-14: 00 noon and 14: 00-17: 00 afternoon), taking the forecast period which reaches first as the change period of forecast aging, namely, the noon as the change period of forecast aging. The trend change (yellow) serves as evaluation information of the change period.

Therefore, the forecast time period is divided into three sections, namely a first time period (09: 00-10: 00, non-change time period), a second time period (11: 00-14: 00, change time period) and a third time period (15: 00-08 days, non-change time period). The alarm levels of the first time period to the third time period are respectively as follows: blue, yellow.

Optionally, if the observation information reaching the trend change is not obtained, setting a change time period for forecasting the aging according to a first preset rule, and taking the evaluation information corresponding to the trend change as the evaluation information of the change time period.

For example, taking the wave height forecast of the wave forecast issued at 08 th 2.0-3.0 → 3.0-4.0 as an example, the forecast time is (09 th-08 th day). If the observation information reaching the trend change (3.5) is not searched in the search of the live observation data, the last two periods (a preset rule, or other rules, which is only an example) are set as the change time period of the forecast time. The last two forecast periods of forecast time are respectively 02: 00-05: 00 in the late night and 05: 00-08: 00 in the morning, the time period (02: 00-08: 00 in the next day) formed by the two forecast periods is a change time period, and the trend change (the evaluation wave height is 3.5) is used as the evaluation information of the change time period.

Therefore, the forecast time is divided into two sections, namely a first time section (09: 00-the next day (01: 00) and a non-change time section) and a second time section (02: 00-08: 00) respectively. The evaluation information of the first time period to the second time period is evaluation wave heights 2.5 and 3.5, respectively.

For another example, taking the wave direction prediction "E → SE" of the ocean wave prediction issued at 08 as an example, if the observation information reaching the trend change (SE) is not searched in the search of the live observation data, the last two time intervals are set as the change time periods of the prediction time. The last two forecast periods of forecast time are respectively 02: 00-05: 00 in the late night and 05: 00-08: 00 in the morning, the time period (02: 00-08: 00 in the next day) formed by the two forecast periods is a change time period, and the trend change (wave direction SE) is used as evaluation information of the change time period.

The forecast time is divided into two sections, namely a first time section (09: 00-the next day (01: 00) and a non-change time section) and a second time section (02: 00-08: 00) respectively. The evaluation information of the first to second time periods is E, SE, respectively.

For another example, taking the alarm level "blue → yellow" of the wave alarm issued at 08 as an example, the forecast time period is (09 hours to 08 hours next day). If the observation information reaching the trend change (SE) is not searched in the search of the live observation data, the last two periods are set as the change time periods of the forecast aging. The last two forecast periods of forecast aging are respectively 02: 00-05: 00 in the late night and 05: 00-08: 00 in the morning, the time period (02: 00-08: 00 in the next day) formed by the two forecast periods is a change time period, and the trend change (yellow) is used as evaluation information of the change time period. The trend change (yellow) serves as evaluation information of the change period.

Therefore, the forecast time period is divided into two periods, namely a first period (09: 00-the next day (01: 00) and a non-change period) and a second period (02: 00-08: 00) respectively. Evaluation information of the first time zone to the second time zone: blue and yellow.

By the mode, the change time period of the third forecasting form and the evaluation information of the change time period can be well determined by virtue of live observation data.

Step S400 acquires observation information for each time period of the forecast age from the live observation data.

And if the inspection and evaluation element is wave height or wave direction and a plurality of live observation values exist at the same time, selecting the highest value of the wave height or the main wave direction value at the same time to participate in inspection and evaluation.

If the inspection and evaluation element is wave height or wave direction and a plurality of observation values of the time period exist in the time period, the observation information of the time period can be obtained according to the observation values of the time periods, for example, the highest value can be obtained for the wave height, and the wave direction at the time of the highest value of the wave height or the wave direction with high occurrence frequency can be selected for the wave direction; the observation values of a plurality of times and the corresponding times can also be used as the observation information of the time period.

And if the inspection evaluation element is the alarm level, acquiring the maximum value of the observed wave height from the live observation data of the time period, obtaining a corresponding observation grade according to the maximum value of the observed wave height, and taking the observation grade as the observation information of the time period.

The wave alarm issues alarm levels which are divided into near shore and offshore situations. The maximum observed wave height was converted to an observed grade according to table 5.

TABLE 5 wave height and grade conversion Table

Grade	Near bank wave height (m)	Grade	Offshore boatheight (m)
				Is free of	≦2.4	/	/
Blue color	2.5～3.4	Is free of	≦5.9
				Yellow colour	3.5～4.4	Yellow colour	6.0～8.9
Orange colour	4.5～5.9	Orange colour	9.0～13.9
				Red colour	≧6.0	Red colour	≧14.0

Step S500 evaluates the forecast quality of the corresponding time period according to the evaluation information and observation information of each time period.

Optionally, if the observation information of a time period has a plurality of observation values of a time, respectively evaluating the forecast quality of the corresponding time period according to the evaluation information of the time period and the observation value of each time to obtain a plurality of corresponding evaluation results; and obtaining the forecast quality evaluation of the time period according to the obtained multiple evaluation results. Alternatively, if each evaluation result includes an evaluation score and a relative error between the predicted value and the measured value, the highest evaluation score of the evaluation results may be used as the final evaluation score, and the smallest relative error of the evaluation results may be used as the final relative error.

For the evaluation of wave height or wave direction, a plurality of time-order observed values may exist in the observed information of a time period. For the evaluation of the alarm level, the observation information of a time period only has one observation value, namely the observation grade of the time period; and evaluating the forecast quality of the corresponding time period according to the alarm level and the observation level of the time period.

And if the wave height of the evaluation element is detected, calculating the wave height prediction quality evaluation index of the corresponding time period according to the evaluation information and the observation information of each time period. And if the wave direction is the checked evaluation element, calculating the wave direction forecast quality evaluation index of the corresponding time period according to the evaluation information and the observation information of each time period. The wave height/wave direction forecast quality evaluation index includes at least one of a relative error and an absolute error of the forecast value and the measured value, and an evaluation score.

In step S600, if the cyclone occurs within the forecast time limit, it is determined whether the forecast quality evaluation of the time period is valid according to the distance between the center of the live cyclone and the forecast sea area and the distance between the center of the live cyclone and the live observation point.

Specifically, the cyclone includes a tropical cyclone and a temperate cyclone.

The density of the marine live observation station is less than that of the forecast range, the forecast sea area is relatively large, the live observation point data can not represent the live condition of the forecast sea area theoretically, particularly when the cyclone affects a certain sea area, the influence of the distance between the center of the cyclone and the live observation point and the forecast sea area on the wave height is large, and at the moment, the observation point data represent the forecast sea area and obviously lose objectivity and fairness.

Detailed analysis and comparison of the sea area near the fishing island and the 4 ocean buoy storms in the Wenzhou open sea when 12 tropical cyclones and 10 temperate cyclones affect the south of the east sea from 2013 to 2014 shows that when the tropical cyclones and the temperate cyclones affect a certain sea area, a certain point in the sea area is applied to represent that the scientific nature and objectivity of assessment of the forecast area are lost.

Therefore, when forecasting the influence of the cyclone on the sea area, whether the center of the live cyclone enters the sea area in the evaluation time period or not is judged according to the central strength of the cyclone, the moving speed of the cyclone and the path change trend, and if the center of the live cyclone enters the sea area, the evaluation data is valid; if not, the evaluation data is invalid.

Further, whether the evaluation is valid may be judged according to the following manner:

a) if the cyclone occurs within the forecast time period and the distance between the 7-level wind circle outer edge of the cyclone and the forecast sea area edge is larger than a first preset distance, such as 250km, the forecast quality evaluation of the time period is valid.

The cyclone is far away from the observation point, so that the influence on the sea area of the observation point is avoided, the recorded data of the observation point can represent the sea area, and the evaluation result is effective.

b) If the cyclone occurs within the forecast time period, and the distance between the 7-level wind circle outer edge of the cyclone and the forecast sea area edge is not more than a first preset distance, such as 250km, and the distance between the 7-level wind circle outer edge and the actual observation point is not more than a second preset distance, such as 40km, the forecast quality evaluation of the time period is valid.

The result shows that the cyclone is close to the observation point, the piece of sea area of the observation point is in the most serious stage of cyclone influence, and the recorded data of the observation point can represent the piece of sea area, so the evaluation result is valid.

c) If the cyclone occurs in the forecast time period and the distance between the 7-level wind circle outer edge of the cyclone and the forecast sea area edge is not more than a first preset distance, such as 250km, but is more than a second preset distance, such as 40km, from the live observation point, the forecast quality evaluation of the time period is valid.

The cyclone distance observation point is in a transition stage, the influence is exerted, but the influence is not large, the wave height difference of each point is large on a straight line from the observation point to the cyclone center point, the recorded data of the observation point cannot represent the sea area, and therefore the evaluation result is invalid.

Further, when the tropical cyclone is influenced, when the judgment principle is applied, whether the evaluation of a certain forecast sea area is effective or not can be determined according to the moving speed and the path change trend of the tropical cyclone in the latest period of the distance forecast time published by a central weather station in China.

In the embodiment, the change time periods and the evaluation information thereof are determined, and the evaluation information of each time period is combined with the observation information to evaluate the pre-alarm quality, so that the difficult problem of evaluating the trend change in the sea wave pre-alarm is solved, and the objectivity, the scientificity and the fairness of evaluation are improved; the influence of the cyclone on the pre-warning quality evaluation is solved by judging whether the cyclone enters the forecast sea area in the forecast time period.

Another embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 1 and 2, is a method for evaluating the wave height prediction quality of a wave forecast or a wave alarm, including:

on the basis of the embodiment shown in fig. 1, step S500 evaluates the wave height pre-alarm quality of a time period according to the evaluation information and observation information of the time period, and specifically includes:

the evaluation information is an evaluation wave height, and the observation information is an observation wave height.

Step S510, if the estimated wave height is not greater than a first preset wave height and the observed wave height is not greater than the first preset wave height, accurately forecasting; otherwise, step S520 is executed.

Due to the forecast warning characteristic, the minimum wave height cannot be forecasted, and in order to avoid a large estimation error when the forecast wave height is small, a forecast wave height lower limit is set, namely a first preset wave height, for example, 0.7 m. If the predicted wave height is 0.7 and the observed wave height is below 0.7 m, the error is judged to be 0, and the prediction is considered to be accurate.

Step S520 obtains the wave height absolute error according to the observed wave height and the estimated wave height, and calculates the estimation score of the wave height prediction in the time period according to the wave height absolute error.

The wave height absolute error DH is calculated according to the following formula:

DH＝|FH-MH|

wherein FH is an estimated wave height in meters; MH is the observed wave height in meters.

Calculating the maximum difference between the forecast wave height value of 100 time-sharing and the actually measured wave height value according to the following formula, and recording as a first maximum difference d:

d＝max{0.125×MH，0.3}；

MH is the observed wave height in meters.

Calculating the evaluation score of wave height prediction according to the wave height absolute error and a certain rule, such as:

a) when the absolute error of the wave height is not more than d, the wave height is 100 minutes;

b) when the absolute error of the wave height is larger than d, deducting 5 minutes from 0.1 meter to 0 minute;

the wave height score of a single sea area is the accumulated average of the wave height scores of all the forecast sea areas.

Step S530 calculates a relative error of wave height according to the observed wave height and the estimated wave height.

The relative error R of wave height is calculated according to the following formula_{Wave height}：

Where MH is the observed wave height and FH is the estimated wave height.

The relative error of the wave height of a single sea area is the accumulated average of the wave height of all times of the sea area, and the relative error of the wave height of a single forecast list is the accumulated average of the relative errors of the wave heights of all forecast sea areas. And taking the evaluation score of the wave height prediction and the wave height relative error as the wave height prediction quality evaluation index of the time period.

According to the method, the wave height forecast quality evaluation index is calculated according to the evaluation wave height and the observation wave height, and the wave height forecast is evaluated more objectively, comprehensively and scientifically.

Another embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 1 and 3, is a wave direction prediction quality evaluation method for wave direction prediction of wave prediction, including:

on the basis of the embodiment shown in fig. 1, step S500 evaluates the wave direction prediction quality of a time segment according to the evaluation information and the observation information of the time segment, and specifically includes:

the evaluation information is an evaluation wave direction, and the observation information is an observation wave direction.

Step S521 obtains a wave direction absolute error from the observed wave direction and the estimated wave direction, and calculates an estimation score of the wave direction prediction from the wave direction absolute error.

Calculating the wave direction absolute error X according to the following formula_{Wave direction}：

X_{Wave direction}＝|(FW-MW)mod360-180|；

Wherein FW is an evaluation wave direction in degrees (°); MW is the observed direction of wave, in degrees (°).

Calculating the evaluation score of the wave direction forecast according to the wave direction absolute error and a certain rule, such as:

a) the absolute error of wave direction is not more than 1.5 azimuth full-scale 100 minutes;

b) the error is more than 1.5 azimuths and not more than 2 azimuths, and 1 minute is deducted for each deviation of 1 degree;

c) the error is larger than 2 azimuths, and 5 minutes are deducted for each deviation of 1 degree until 0 minute;

the wave direction score of a single forecast bill is the accumulated average of the wave direction scores of all forecast sea areas.

Step S531 calculates a wave direction relative error according to the observed wave direction and the estimated wave direction.

Calculating wave direction relative error R according to the following formula_{Wave direction}：

Wherein MW is the observation wave direction and unit degree; FW is the estimated wave direction in units of degrees.

The wave direction relative error of the single forecast list is the accumulated average of the wave direction relative errors of all forecast sea areas.

And taking the evaluation score and the wave direction relative error of the wave direction forecast as the wave direction forecast quality evaluation index of the time period.

In the embodiment, the wave direction forecast is evaluated more objectively, comprehensively and scientifically by calculating the wave direction forecast quality evaluation index.

An embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 4, is a wave pre-alarm quality assessment method for the forecast quality assessment of the alarm level of a wave alarm, comprising:

on the basis of the embodiment shown in fig. 1, the step S500 evaluates the forecast quality of the alarm level of a time segment according to the evaluation information and the observation information of the time segment, and specifically includes:

the evaluation information is an alarm level and the observation information is an observation level. Step S532 obtains the alarm level absolute error according to the alarm level and the observation level, and calculates the evaluation score of the alarm level forecast of the time period according to the alarm level absolute error.

The alarm level absolute error DL is calculated according to the following formula:

DL＝|FL-ML|

wherein FL is the alarm level and is dimensionless; ML is the observation grade, dimensionless.

And calculating the evaluation score of the alarm grade forecast according to the absolute error of the alarm grade and a certain rule, such as: the absolute error of the alarm level is 0, and the evaluation result is 100 points; the absolute error of the alarm grade is 1, and the evaluation result is 80 points; the absolute error of the alarm level is 2, and the evaluation result is 60 points; the absolute error of the alarm level is more than 2, and the evaluation result is 40 points.

The wave alarm rating assessment score of a single alarm sheet is the cumulative average of the wave alarm rating assessment scores of all the alarm waters.

Step S532 obtains the alarm level accuracy of the time period according to the observation level and the alarm level.

The alarm level accuracy rate is divided into correct forecast, missing report and empty report. If the alarm level is equal to the observation level, the forecast is correct. And if the alarm level is greater than the observation level, the alarm is empty. And if the alarm level is less than the observation level, the report is missed.

The evaluation score and the alarm grade accuracy of the alarm grade forecast form a quality evaluation index of the alarm grade.

And obtaining a statistical result of the alarm sea area according to the alarm level accuracy of all the wave alarms of the alarm sea area within the specified time, wherein the statistical result comprises the wave alarm accuracy, the empty report rate and the missing report rate.

The sea wave alarm accuracy CS, the empty report rate FAR and the missing report rate PO are counted according to the following formulas:

wherein NA is the accurate forecasting times of the alarm level in the specified time; NB is the number of times of empty reporting of the alarm level in the specified time limit; NC is the number of times of false alarm of alarm level in the specified time.

The alarm accuracy, the empty alarm rate and the missing alarm rate of the single alarm list are the accumulated average of corresponding items of all the alarm sea areas.

In the embodiment, the alarm level of the sea wave alarm is objectively, comprehensively and scientifically evaluated by calculating the quality evaluation index of the sea wave alarm level and counting the alarm accuracy, the empty report rate and the missing report rate.

In an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 5, an ocean wave pre-alarm quality assessment apparatus includes:

the information acquisition module 100 is used for acquiring inspection and evaluation elements of the wave pre-alarm; and acquiring pre-alarm data to be detected of the inspection and evaluation elements and live observation data within the forecast time of the pre-alarm data.

The inspection evaluation elements of the wave pre-alarm comprise one or more of wave height, wave direction and alarm level, wherein the wave height is effective wave height, and the wave direction is main wave direction. If the test evaluation elements have multiple types, the forecast quality of each element is evaluated respectively.

Obtaining wave pre-alarm data and live observation data in the pre-alarm sea area, and obtaining the pre-alarm data and the corresponding live observation data of the inspection and evaluation element from the wave pre-alarm data and the live observation data. Forecasting the aging refers to forecasting the effective time period.

And a forecast form judging module 200, configured to judge whether the pre-warning data has a trend change.

Specifically, wave forecasting has various forecasting forms, mainly including: the first form of forecasting: no trend change. The second form of forecasting: there is a trend change and there is a definite period of change. The third form of forecasting: there was a trend change with no period of change.

The evaluation information determining module 300 is configured to, if the pre-warning data does not have a trend change, determine that the forecast aging of the pre-warning data corresponds to a time period, and determine evaluation information of the time period according to the pre-warning data.

For the first form of forecasting, the entire forecast age corresponds to a time period. The assessment information is information derived from the pre-alarm data for verification assessment. For the pre-alarm data of the interval value type, the average value thereof is adopted as the corresponding evaluation information. For a single value type of pre-warning data, its evaluation information is equal to the pre-warning data. For the symbol type pre-alarm data, it needs to be converted into a corresponding numerical value as evaluation information in practical application. For example, wave direction data needs to be converted from azimuth to degree. Similar situations exist for the alarm level, which in practice needs to be converted to a corresponding numerical level.

The evaluation information determining module 300 is further configured to, if the pre-warning data has a trend change, divide the forecast aging of the pre-warning data into a change time period and a non-change time period, and determine the change time period of the forecast aging and the evaluation information of the change time period; and determining the non-change time period of the forecast aging and the evaluation information of the non-change time period according to the change time period of the forecast aging.

Specifically, if the pre-warning data has trend change, the forecasting time efficiency is divided into at least two time periods, each time period belongs to a change time period or a non-change time period, and the minimum unit of the time period is the forecasting time period.

If the pre-warning data adopts the second forecasting form, the variation time interval in the pre-warning data is used as the variation time interval for forecasting the aging, and the trend variation of the pre-warning data (namely the evaluation information of the variation time interval in the pre-warning data) is used as the evaluation information of the variation time interval.

And if the pre-warning data adopts a third forecasting form, determining a variation time period for forecasting the aging according to the live observation data, and determining evaluation information of the variation time period according to the trend variation of the pre-warning data.

The forecast quality evaluation module 400 is used for acquiring observation information of each time period of forecast aging according to the live observation data; and evaluating the forecast quality of the corresponding time period according to the evaluation information and the observation information of each time period.

The forecast quality evaluating module 400 includes a single-period evaluating unit 410, and the single-period evaluating unit 410 is configured to evaluate the forecast quality of a corresponding time period according to evaluation information and observation information of the time period.

Optionally, if the observation information of a time period has a plurality of observation values of the time, respectively evaluating the forecast quality of the pre-warning data according to the evaluation information of the time period and the observation value of each time to obtain a plurality of corresponding evaluation results; and obtaining the forecast quality evaluation of the time period according to the obtained multiple evaluation results. Alternatively, each evaluation result includes an evaluation score, and a relative error between the predicted value and the measured value, and the highest evaluation score of the plurality of evaluation results may be taken as the final evaluation score, and the smallest relative error of the plurality of evaluation results may be taken as the final relative error.

And the cyclone influence module 500 is used for judging whether the forecast quality evaluation of the time period is effective or not according to the distance between the center of the live cyclone and the forecast sea area and the distance between the center of the live cyclone and the live observation point in the time period if the cyclone occurs within the forecast time period.

a) and if the cyclone occurs in the forecast time period and the distance between the outer edge of the 7-level wind ring of the cyclone in the time period and the forecast sea area edge is greater than the first preset distance, the forecast quality evaluation of the time period is effective.

b) And if the cyclone occurs in the forecast time period, the distance between the 7-level wind circle outer edge of the cyclone in the time period and the forecast sea area edge is not more than a first preset distance, and the distance between the 7-level wind circle outer edge of the cyclone in the time period and the actual observation point is not more than a second preset distance, the forecast quality evaluation of the time period is effective.

c) And if the cyclone occurs in the forecast time period, and the distance between the 7-level wind circle outer edge of the cyclone in the time period and the forecast sea area edge is not more than the first preset distance, but is more than the second preset distance from the live observation point, the forecast quality evaluation of the time period is effective.

Another embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 5 and 6, is a wave pre-warning quality evaluation device for wave height prediction quality evaluation of wave prediction or wave warning, including:

on the basis of the embodiment shown in fig. 5, the single-period evaluating unit 410 specifically includes:

And the wave height boundary evaluation unit 411 is configured to predict the wave height accurately if the evaluation wave height is not greater than the first preset wave height and the observed wave height is not greater than the first preset wave height.

If the above situation is not satisfied, the wave height normal evaluation unit 412 evaluates the wave height prediction quality for the time period.

The wave height normal evaluation unit 412 is used for obtaining a wave height absolute error according to the observed wave height and the evaluation wave height, and calculating an evaluation score of wave height prediction of the time period according to the wave height absolute error; and calculating the relative error of the wave height according to the observed wave height and the estimated wave height.

And taking the evaluation score of the wave height prediction and the wave height relative error as the wave height prediction quality evaluation index of the time period.

The wave height score of a single sea area is the accumulated average of the wave height scores of all the forecast sea areas. The relative error of the wave height of a single sea area is the accumulated average of the wave height of all times of the sea area, and the relative error of the wave height of a single forecast list is the accumulated average of the relative errors of the wave heights of all forecast sea areas.

Another embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 5 and 7, is a wave direction prediction quality evaluation device for wave prediction of wave prediction, including:

The wave direction evaluation unit 413 is used for obtaining a wave direction absolute error according to the observation wave direction and the evaluation wave direction, and calculating an evaluation score of wave direction prediction according to the wave direction absolute error; and calculating the wave direction relative error according to the observed wave direction and the estimated wave direction.

The wave direction of a single sea area is divided into the accumulated average of the time of the sea area, and the wave direction relative error of a single forecast sheet is the accumulated average of the wave direction relative errors of all forecast sea areas. The wave direction relative error of a single sea area is the accumulated average of all times of the sea area, and the wave direction relative error of a single forecast sheet is the accumulated average of the wave direction relative errors of all forecast sea areas.

An embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 8, is a wave pre-alarm quality assessment apparatus for forecast quality assessment of alarm level of a wave alarm, comprising:

an alarm level evaluation unit 414, configured to obtain an alarm level absolute error according to the alarm level and the observation level, and calculate an evaluation score of the alarm level prediction of the time period according to the alarm level absolute error; and obtaining the alarm level accuracy of the time period according to the observation level and the alarm level. The alarm level accuracy rate is divided into correct forecast, missing report and empty report.

And obtaining a statistical result of the alarm sea area according to the alarm level accuracy of all the wave alarms of the alarm sea area within the specified time, wherein the statistical result comprises the wave alarm accuracy, the empty report rate and the missing report rate. The alarm accuracy, the empty alarm rate and the missing alarm rate of the single alarm list are the accumulated average of corresponding items of all the alarm sea areas.

It should be noted that the embodiment of the device for evaluating the pre-warning quality of ocean waves provided by the invention and the embodiment of the method for evaluating the pre-warning quality of ocean waves provided by the invention are based on the same inventive concept, and the same technical effects can be obtained. Thus, other details of the embodiment for the wave pre-warning quality assessment apparatus can refer to the above description of the embodiment applied to the wave pre-warning quality assessment method.

It should be noted that the above embodiments can be freely combined as necessary. The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, various modifications and decorations can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, and these modifications and decorations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A wave pre-warning quality assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:

acquiring inspection and evaluation elements of the wave pre-alarm, wherein the inspection and evaluation elements comprise one or more of wave height, wave direction and alarm level;

acquiring pre-alarm data to be detected of the inspection and evaluation elements and live observation data within forecast timeliness of the pre-alarm data;

if the pre-alarm data has trend change, dividing the forecast aging of the pre-alarm data into a change time period and a non-change time period, determining the change time period of the forecast aging and the evaluation information of the change time period, and determining the evaluation information of the non-change time period and the non-change time period according to the change time period;

acquiring observation information of each time period of the forecast aging according to the live observation data;

and evaluating the forecast quality of each time period according to the evaluation information and the observation information of each time period.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein if there is a trend change in the pre-warning data, determining all the change time periods of the forecast time and the evaluation information of each change time period comprises:

if the pre-warning data has trend change and does not contain a change time period, searching the live observation data from a second forecast time period of the forecast timeliness;

and if the observation information reaching the trend change is obtained, taking a forecast time period in which the observation time point of the observation information reaching the first time is as a change time period of the forecast time effectiveness, and taking evaluation information corresponding to the trend change as evaluation information of the change time period.

3. The forecast quality evaluating method according to claim 2, wherein said taking a forecast time period in which an observation time point of observation information that is reached first is located as a change time period of the forecast time efficiency includes:

and if the observation time point of the observation information which reaches first is in a plurality of forecast time periods, taking the forecast time period which reaches first as the change time period of the forecast time effectiveness.

4. The forecast quality assessment method according to claim 2, wherein said searching for live observation data is started from a second forecast period of said forecast aging, and thereafter further comprising:

if the observation information reaching the trend change is not obtained, setting the change time period of the forecast aging according to a first preset rule, and taking the evaluation information corresponding to the trend change as the evaluation information of the change time period.

5. The forecast quality evaluating method according to claim 1, wherein:

the inspection and evaluation element is wave height;

evaluating the forecast quality of each time period according to the evaluation information and the observation information of the time period, wherein the evaluation comprises the following steps:

the evaluation information is evaluation wave height, and the observation information is observation wave height;

obtaining a wave height absolute error according to the observed wave height and the evaluation wave height, and calculating an evaluation score of wave height prediction of the time period according to the wave height absolute error;

and calculating the wave height relative error of the time period according to the observed wave height and the estimated wave height.

6. The forecast quality evaluating method according to claim 5, wherein the forecast quality of each time segment is evaluated based on the evaluation information and observation information of the time segment, further comprising:

and if the evaluation wave height is not greater than a first preset wave height and the observation wave height is not greater than the first preset wave height, the forecasting is accurate.

7. The forecast quality evaluating method according to claim 1, wherein:

the inspection and evaluation elements are wave directions;

the evaluation information is an evaluation wave direction, and the observation information is an observation wave direction;

obtaining wave direction absolute errors according to the observation wave directions of the time periods and the evaluation wave directions of the time periods, and calculating evaluation scores of wave direction forecast of the time periods according to the wave direction absolute errors;

and obtaining the wave direction relative error of the time period according to the observed wave direction of the time period and the estimated wave direction of the time period.

8. The forecast quality evaluating method according to claim 1, wherein:

the inspection evaluation element is an alarm level;

the acquiring of the observation information of each time segment of the forecast aging according to the live observation data includes: acquiring a maximum observed wave height value from live observation data of the time period, obtaining a corresponding observation grade according to the maximum observed wave height value, and taking the observation grade as observation information of the time period;

the evaluation information is an alarm level, and the observation information is an observation level;

obtaining an alarm grade absolute error according to the observation grade of the time period and the alarm grade of the time period, and calculating an evaluation score of the alarm grade forecast of the time period according to the alarm grade absolute error;

and obtaining the accuracy of the alarm level of the time period according to the observation level of the time period and the alarm level of the time period.

9. The forecast quality evaluating method according to claim 1, comprising, after evaluating the forecast quality for the time period:

and if the cyclone occurs in the forecast time period, judging whether the forecast quality evaluation of the time period is effective or not according to the distance between the live cyclone center and the forecast sea area and the distance between the live cyclone center and the live observation point.

10. An ocean wave pre-warning quality assessment device, comprising:

the wave pre-alarming system comprises an information acquisition module, a data processing module and a data processing module, wherein the information acquisition module is used for acquiring inspection and evaluation elements of wave pre-alarming, and the inspection and evaluation elements comprise one or more of wave height, wave direction and alarming level; acquiring pre-alarm data to be detected of the inspection and evaluation elements and live observation data within forecast timeliness of the pre-alarm data;

the evaluation information determining module is used for dividing the forecast aging of the pre-warning data into a variation time period and a non-variation time period if the pre-warning data has trend variation, determining all variation time periods of the forecast aging and the evaluation information of each variation time period, and determining the evaluation information of the non-variation time period and the non-variation time period according to the variation time periods;

the forecast quality evaluation module is used for acquiring observation information of each time period of the forecast aging according to the live observation data; and evaluating the forecast quality of each time period according to the evaluation information and the observation information of each time period.