CN112801470B - Life-cycle management system and evaluation method for offshore wind power - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a life-cycle management system and an evaluation method of offshore wind power, which comprise the following steps: the system comprises a general overview module, a development situation module, a resource planning module, a capital construction module, a constructed and investment planning module, a prediction module, a production module, a transaction module, a wind field evaluation module, a production planning module, an early warning module, a risk module, an operation, operation and maintenance module, a profit module, a income module and a safety module, and an integrated evaluation method for resource planning, capital construction, production, risk, transaction and operation and maintenance is constructed according to the process.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of offshore wind power, in particular to a life-cycle management system and an evaluation method of offshore wind power.
Background
In recent years, new energy industries are rapidly developed, wind power becomes the third largest power supply of China after coal power and hydropower, onshore wind energy resources of China are fully utilized, with subsidence of onshore wind power heat, China gradually transfers targets to the sea, the offshore wind energy resources are fully utilized, and offshore wind power projects are vigorously developed.
At present, the early investment of offshore wind power is large, the average investment cost is high, the middle-term construction environment is complex, and the later maintenance cost is also high, so that the management of the offshore wind power in the whole life period is very important, however, the research on the management and evaluation method of the whole life period of the offshore wind power is less, and the management of the whole life period of the offshore wind power is not facilitated.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a life-cycle management system and an evaluation method for offshore wind power.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a life-cycle management system for offshore wind power, the system being characterized in that it comprises: the system comprises a general overview module, a development situation module, a resource planning module, a capital construction, established and investment planning module, a prediction module, a production module, a transaction module, a wind field evaluation module, a production planning module, an early warning and risk module, an operation, operation and maintenance, profit and income module and a safety module.
The general overview module comprises capacity development conditions, fan scales, accumulated electric quantity, resource conditions, health conditions, energy conservation and emission reduction conditions and the like, and is mainly used for carrying out overall description analysis on aspects of development, production, operation and the like.
The development situation module comprises a signing installation machine, an approval installation machine, a commissioning installation machine, utilization hours and the like, and is mainly used for analyzing the development condition of offshore wind power in nearly five years.
The resource planning module comprises resource exploitability, resource exploitation, hydrological conditions, geological conditions and the like, and analyzes future resource exploitability by analyzing conditions such as water depth, geology and the like of the current sea area, so as to provide early support for future development and investment planning.
The capital construction, established and investment planning module comprises the completion conditions of four stages of planning projects, start-up projects, approval projects and annual commissioning, analyzes the annual capital construction execution condition based on the annual resource investment planning condition, and provides evaluation basis for capital construction, production and the like.
The prediction module comprises a short-term prediction accuracy, an ultra-short-term prediction accuracy, a short-term prediction maximum deviation, an ultra-short-term prediction maximum deviation, a short-term prediction root mean square error and an ultra-short-term prediction root mean square error of each wind power plant in the region, and provides data support for production planning, transaction evaluation, operation and maintenance and the like through calculation of indexes of the short-term prediction and the ultra-short-term prediction of each wind power plant in the region.
The production module comprises the effective wind hours and the actual delivery hours of each month in the area, the lost electric quantity of each month, the unplanned shutdown lost electric quantity, the fault shutdown lost electric quantity and the like, the electric quantity loss reason and the occupation ratio are determined through the calculation of production indexes, and data support is provided for production evaluation, transaction evaluation and the like.
The transaction module comprises a guarantee acquisition electric quantity, a cross-provincial transaction electric quantity, a guarantee acquisition electric price, a cross-provincial transaction electric price, a guarantee acquisition income, a cross-provincial transaction income, a medium-long term contract electric quantity, a medium-long term contract electric price, a medium-long term contract income, a spot transaction electric quantity and the like, and all income of electric quantity transaction is calculated to provide a data basis for transaction evaluation.
The wind field evaluation module comprises the utilization hours, the effective wind hours, the utilization rate, the fault loss hours, the prediction accuracy rate, the work order completion rate and the like of each wind power plant under the region, calculates the operation indexes of each wind field, follows the real-time operation condition of the wind field, and provides an evaluation basis for production, operation and maintenance and the like.
The production planning module comprises monthly planned power generation capacity, monthly actual power generation capacity, monthly power completion rate and the like, follows up the operation installation in real time according to resource planning, investment planning and infrastructure construction conditions, and analyzes the monthly planned power generation capacity, the lost power and the actual power generation capacity in a contrastive manner according to the results of prediction analysis and production operation analysis, so as to analyze the execution condition of the production plan in the region.
The early warning and risk module comprises typhoon early warning, lightning stroke early warning, icing early warning and earthquake early warning, and predicts the appearance condition, appearance probability and occurrence risk level of extreme weather in a future week through a weather forecast data structure, so that warning information is provided for production, operation and maintenance, and major accidents and economic losses of enterprises are avoided.
The operation, operation and maintenance, profit and income module comprises a degree electricity net profit, a degree electricity maintenance fee, a unit capacity operation maintenance fee, a degree electricity profit, an electric quantity sales income, a cost, a net profit and the like, and according to the calculated costs and profits, the operation condition of the enterprise is analyzed, the cost of the enterprise is reduced, and the economic benefit of the enterprise is improved.
The safety module comprises continuous non-fault operation days, safe production days, natural disaster accidents, equipment failure times and the like, production, operation and maintenance under extreme weather are avoided according to early warning and risk forecasting results, personnel and equipment safety is guaranteed, non-fault operation and safe production of enterprises are guaranteed, and economic benefits of the enterprises are improved.
A method for evaluating the life cycle of offshore wind power comprises the following steps:
(1) establishing an offshore wind power static data model according to the contents required to be displayed by the general overview module and the development situation module;
(2) an integrated evaluation method from construction to production to operation and maintenance is constructed according to a resource planning module, a capital construction, established and investment planning module, a prediction module, a production module, a transaction module, a wind field evaluation module, a production planning module, an early warning and risk module and an operation, operation and maintenance, profit and income module, and comprises a resource planning, capital construction, production, risk, transaction and operation and maintenance evaluation method. Establishing a resource planning evaluation method according to basic data of a resource planning module; constructing a capital construction evaluation method according to the basic data of the capital construction, established and investment planning modules; constructing a production evaluation method according to the basic data of the prediction module and the production module, and displaying a calculation result through a wind field evaluation module; constructing a risk evaluation method according to the early warning and risk module basic data; constructing a transaction evaluation method according to the transaction module and basic data of the operation, operation and maintenance, profit and income module; and constructing an operation and maintenance evaluation method according to the basic data of the operation, operation and maintenance, profits and income modules.
Further, the resource planning evaluation method specifically comprises the following steps:
R＝Vd/Vp；
wherein R is resource development proportion, VdTo a developed amount, VpIs the projected volume.
Further, the infrastructure evaluation method specifically comprises the following steps:
Rs＝Ps/Pp；
wherein R issTo the operating rate, PsFor start-up project, PpIs a planning project.
Further, the production evaluation method specifically comprises the following steps:
where RMSE is the root mean square error, PMiIs the actual power at time i, PPiAnd the predicted power at the moment i, Cap is the total starting capacity of the wind power plant, and n is the number of all samples.
R＝(1-RMSE)*100％；
Wherein R is the accuracy.
H＝Q/PW；
Wherein H is the real generation hours, Q is the real generation amount, PWIs the installed capacity.
Further, the risk evaluation method specifically comprises the following steps:
(1) the lightning stroke grades are divided into three grades: the probability that the first level is lightning activity is very high, the probability that the second level is lightning activity is very high, and the probability that the third level is possible to generate the lightning activity;
(2) the typhoon grade is divided into four levels: the first level is that the average wind power reaches 6 levels and above, and below 8 levels; the second level is that the average wind power reaches 8 levels and above, and is below 10 levels; the third level is that the average wind power reaches 10 levels and above, and is below 12 levels; the four levels are average wind power of 12 levels and above.
Further, the transaction evaluation method specifically comprises the following steps:
the guaranteed acquisition income is the guaranteed acquisition electric quantity and the guaranteed acquisition electric price;
the cross-provincial transaction income is cross-provincial transaction electric quantity and cross-provincial transaction electricity price;
further, the operation and maintenance evaluation method specifically comprises the following steps:
the net profit of kilowatt-hour is the net profit/real generating capacity.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial technical effects:
according to the method, through the integrated construction of modules such as resource planning, prediction, transaction and production, a visual platform is provided for offshore wind power from construction, production to operation maintenance, and the construction and operation conditions of offshore wind power at each stage can be intuitively known; providing guidance opinions for group development planning and investment construction through calculation and analysis of the construction and evaluation methods of the resource planning and infrastructure module; through the construction and evaluation of the production and transaction modules, the operation condition of offshore wind power can be intuitively known, the generated energy is effectively guided to be improved, the operation cost is reduced, and the support is provided for cost reduction and efficiency improvement; through the construction and evaluation of the early warning and operation and maintenance module, operation and maintenance personnel can be effectively guided to carry out on-site operation and maintenance work, the operation and maintenance efficiency is improved, and the operation and maintenance cost is reduced.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a basic block diagram of a regional offshore wind power life management system;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a regional offshore wind power life cycle assessment method.
Detailed Description
Embodiments of the invention are described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings:
the offshore wind power whole-life intelligent management system in Jiangsu province mainly comprises: the system comprises a Jiangsu province offshore wind power general overview module, a Jiangsu province offshore wind power development situation module, a resource planning module, capital construction, established and investment planning module, a prediction module, a production module, a transaction module, a wind field evaluation module, a production plan module, an early warning, a risk module, an operation, operation and maintenance module, a profit and income module and a safety module.
The general overview module of offshore wind power in Jiangsu province comprises the development condition of offshore wind power capacity, the scale of a fan, accumulated electric quantity, resource condition, health condition, energy conservation and emission reduction condition and the like.
The offshore wind power development situation module of Jiangsu province comprises a signing installation, an approval installation, a commissioning installation, a utilization hour number and the like of offshore wind power of Jiangsu province.
The resource planning module comprises the exploitable amount of offshore wind power resources, the developed amount of resources, hydrological conditions, geological conditions and the like in Jiangsu province.
The capital construction, established and investment planning module comprises the completion conditions of four stages of offshore wind power planning project, start-up project, approval project and annual commissioning in Jiangsu province.
The prediction module comprises short-term prediction accuracy, ultra-short-term prediction accuracy, short-term prediction maximum deviation, ultra-short-term prediction maximum deviation, short-term prediction root mean square error and ultra-short-term prediction root mean square error of all offshore wind power plants in Jiangsu province and each offshore wind power plant in Jiangsu province.
The production modules comprise the effective wind hours, the real generation hours and the loss electric quantity of each month of offshore wind power in Jiangsu province, the loss electric quantity of unplanned shutdown, the loss electric quantity of fault shutdown and the like.
The transaction module comprises a guarantee acquisition electric quantity, a cross-provincial transaction electric quantity, a guarantee acquisition electric price, a cross-provincial transaction electric price, a guarantee acquisition income, a cross-provincial transaction income, a medium and long-term contract electric quantity, a medium and long-term contract electric price, a medium and long-term contract income, a spot-shipment transaction electric quantity and the like.
The wind field evaluation module comprises the utilization hours, the effective wind hours, the utilization rate, the failure loss hours, the prediction accuracy, the work order completion rate and the like of each offshore wind power plant in Jiangsu province.
The production planning module comprises offshore wind power monthly planned generating capacity, monthly actual generating capacity, monthly electric quantity completion rate and the like in Jiangsu province.
The early warning and risk module comprises a typhoon early warning, a lightning stroke early warning, an ice coating early warning and an earthquake early warning of an offshore wind farm in Jiangsu province.
The operation, operation and maintenance, profit and income module comprises the electricity consumption net profit, the electricity consumption maintenance cost, the unit capacity operation maintenance cost, the electricity consumption profit, the electricity sales income, the cost and the net profit of offshore wind power of Jiangsu province.
The safety modules comprise continuous no-fault operation days of offshore wind power in Jiangsu province, safe production days, natural disaster accidents, equipment fault times and the like.
The method for evaluating the offshore wind power life cycle in Jiangsu province is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) establishing a static data model of offshore wind power in Jiangsu province;
(2) and constructing an integrated evaluation method of resource planning, capital construction, production, risk, transaction and operation and maintenance according to the process.
The offshore wind power resource development ratio R of Jiangsu province is as follows:
R＝Vd/Vp；
wherein R is resource development proportion, VdTo a developed amount, VpIs the projected volume.
The capital construction evaluation method specifically comprises the following steps:
operating rate R of offshore wind power in Jiangsu provincesComprises the following steps:
Rs＝Ps/Pp；
wherein, PsFor start-up project, PpIs a planning project.
The production evaluation method specifically comprises the following steps:
the root mean square error RMSE of offshore wind power prediction in Jiangsu province is as follows:
where RMSE is the root mean square error, PMiIs the actual power at time i, PPiAnd the predicted power at the moment i, Cap is the total starting capacity of the wind power plant, and n is the number of all samples.
The offshore wind power prediction accuracy R in Jiangsu province is as follows:
R＝(1-RMSE)*100％；
the actual number of hours H of offshore wind power in Jiangsu province is as follows:
H＝Q/PW；
wherein Q is the actual power generation amount, PWIs the installed capacity.
The offshore wind power risk level of Jiangsu province is as follows:
(1) the lightning stroke grade is three, namely, lightning activity can occur;
(2) the typhoon level is one, i.e. the average wind power is 6 levels or above, and 8 levels or below.
Severe offshore wind power guaranteed acquisition income S of Jiangsu provincegComprises the following steps:
Sg＝Qg*Pg；
wherein Q isgFor the purpose of ensuring the acquisition of electricity, PgThe electricity price is purchased for guarantee.
Cross-province trading income S of offshore wind power of Jiangsu provincepComprises the following steps:
Sp＝Qp*Pp；
wherein Q ispFor trading electric quantity across provinces, PpThe electricity price is traded across provinces.
Wind power electricity net profit C of Jiangsu province offshoregComprises the following steps:
Cg＝CS/Q
wherein, CSIs a net profit.
Claims (6)
1. A method for evaluating the life cycle of offshore wind power is based on a life cycle management system of the offshore wind power, and the life cycle management system of the offshore wind power comprises the following steps:
a general overview module: the system comprises a capacity development condition, a fan scale, accumulated electric quantity, a resource condition, a health condition and an energy-saving and emission-reducing condition, and is used for carrying out overall description analysis in the aspects of development, production and operation;
a development situation module: the method comprises signing installation, approval installation, commissioning installation and utilization hours, and is used for analyzing the development condition of offshore wind power within five years;
a resource planning module: the method comprises the steps of analyzing future resource exploitability by analyzing the water depth and geological conditions of the current sea area, and providing early support for future development and investment planning;
capital construction, established and investment planning module: the method comprises the completion conditions of four stages of planning projects, start-up projects, approval projects and annual commissioning, and the execution condition of annual capital construction is analyzed based on the annual resource investment planning condition to provide evaluation basis for capital construction and production;
a prediction module: the method comprises the steps of calculating short-term and ultra-short-term prediction indexes of each wind power plant in the region to provide data support for production planning, transaction evaluation and operation and maintenance;
a production module: the method comprises the steps of calculating production indexes, determining the reason and occupation ratio of electric quantity loss, and providing data support for production evaluation and transaction evaluation, wherein the effective wind hours and real generation hours of each month in the region, the electric quantity loss of each month, the electric quantity loss of an unplanned shutdown, and the electric quantity loss of a fault shutdown are included;
a transaction module: the method comprises the steps of ensuring acquisition electric quantity, cross-provincial transaction electric quantity, ensuring acquisition electric price, cross-provincial transaction electric price, ensuring acquisition income, cross-provincial transaction income, medium and long-term signed electric quantity, medium and long-term signed electric price, medium and long-term signed income and spot commodity transaction electric quantity, and data basis is provided for transaction evaluation by calculating all income of electric quantity transaction;
the wind field evaluation module comprises the utilization hours, the effective wind hours, the utilization rate, the fault loss hours, the short-term prediction accuracy, the ultra-short-term prediction accuracy and the work order completion rate of each wind power plant in the area, and provides an evaluation basis for production, operation and maintenance by calculating the operation indexes of each wind field and following the real-time operation condition of the wind field;
the production plan module comprises monthly plan power generation, monthly actual power generation and monthly power completion rate, follows up the operation installation in real time according to resource planning, investment planning and capital construction conditions, and contrasts and analyzes monthly plan power generation, lost power and actual power generation according to prediction analysis and production operation analysis results to analyze the execution condition of the production plan of the area;
early warning, risk module: the method comprises typhoon early warning, lightning stroke early warning, ice coating early warning and earthquake early warning, and through a weather forecast data structure, the occurrence condition, the occurrence probability and the occurrence risk level of extreme weather in a future week are predicted, so that warning information is provided for production, operation and maintenance, and major accidents and economic loss of enterprises are avoided;
the management, operation and maintenance, profit and income module comprises: the method comprises the steps of measuring electricity net profit, measuring electricity maintenance cost, unit capacity operation maintenance cost, measuring electricity profit, electric quantity sales income, cost and net profit, analyzing enterprise operation conditions according to the calculated cost and profit, reducing enterprise cost and improving enterprise economic benefit;
a security module: the method comprises the following steps of continuously operating without faults for days, safely producing the days, naturally disaster accidents and equipment fault times, avoiding production, operation and maintenance under extreme weather according to early warning and risk forecasting results, ensuring the safety of personnel and equipment, and ensuring the fault-free operation and safe production of enterprises;
the method for evaluating the life cycle of the offshore wind power comprises the following steps:
(1) establishing a regional offshore wind power static data model according to the contents required to be displayed by the general overview module and the development situation module;
(2) an integrated evaluation method from construction to production to operation and maintenance is constructed according to a resource planning module, a capital construction, established and investment planning module, a prediction module, a production module, a transaction module, a wind field evaluation module, a production planning module, an early warning and risk module and an operation, operation and maintenance, profit and income module, and comprises resource planning, capital construction, production, risk, transaction and operation and maintenance evaluation methods; establishing a resource planning evaluation method according to basic data of a resource planning module; constructing a capital construction evaluation method according to the basic data of the capital construction, established and investment planning modules; constructing a production evaluation method according to the basic data of the prediction module and the production module, and displaying a calculation result through a wind field evaluation module; constructing a risk evaluation method according to the early warning and risk module basic data; constructing a transaction evaluation method according to the transaction module and basic data of the operation, operation and maintenance, profit and income module; and constructing an operation and maintenance evaluation method according to the basic data of the operation, operation and maintenance, profits and income modules.
2. The method for evaluating the life cycle of offshore wind power according to claim 1, wherein the resource planning evaluation method specifically comprises:
R＝Vd/Vp
wherein R is resource development proportion, VdTo a developed amount, VpIs the projected volume.
3. The method for evaluating the life cycle of offshore wind power according to claim 1, characterized in that the capital construction evaluation method specifically comprises:
Rs＝Ps/Pp
wherein R issTo the operating rate, PsFor start-up project, PpIs a planning project.
4. The method for evaluating the life cycle of offshore wind power according to claim 1, characterized in that the production evaluation method specifically comprises:
where RMSE is the root mean square error, PMiIs the actual power at time i, PPiThe predicted power at the moment i, Cap is the total starting capacity of the wind power plant, and n is the number of all samples;
R＝(1-RMSE)*100％
wherein R is the accuracy;
H＝Q/PW
wherein H is the real generation hours, Q is the real generation amount, PWIs the installed capacity.
5. The method for evaluating the life cycle of offshore wind power according to claim 1, characterized in that the trade evaluation method specifically comprises:
the guaranteed acquisition income is the guaranteed acquisition electric quantity and the guaranteed acquisition electric price;
the cross-provincial transaction income is cross-provincial transaction electric quantity and cross-provincial transaction electricity price.
6. The method for evaluating the life cycle of offshore wind power as claimed in claim 1, wherein the operation and maintenance evaluation method specifically comprises:
the net profit of kilowatt-hour is the net profit/real generating capacity.
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