CN112801413A - Photovoltaic power station generated power prediction method and device - Google Patents
Photovoltaic power station generated power prediction method and device Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for predicting the generating power of a photovoltaic power station and related equipment, and the scheme comprises the following steps: acquiring actual power generation power data of each photovoltaic power generation area; judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding and the influence degree based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, and recording the moment when the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by the cloud cluster shadow shielding; calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference of the moments of the photovoltaic power generation areas which are influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow; the method and the device have the advantages that the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the advancing path is predicted based on the advancing path, the advancing speed and the influence degree of the cloud cluster, and the reliability of ultra-short-term power prediction of the photovoltaic power generation areas is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic equipment, in particular to a method and a device for predicting the power generation power of a photovoltaic power station.
Background
The power generation power of the photovoltaic power station is directly related to the amount of sunlight radiation received by the surface of the photovoltaic component, and the power generation power is influenced by meteorological factors and has the characteristics of randomness and volatility. The accurate photovoltaic power prediction is provided for the photovoltaic power station, so that support can be provided for operation and maintenance of the power station, and the state diagnosis and evaluation of equipment of the photovoltaic power station are facilitated; the power dispatching support can provide support for power dispatching and coordinate the coordination of other controllable power supplies, energy storage and photovoltaic power generation.
The photovoltaic power generation power prediction can be divided into medium and long term power prediction, short term power prediction and ultra-short term power prediction on the time scale, wherein the medium and long term power prediction is generally more than one week, the short term power prediction is 1-3 days, the ultra-short term power prediction is 0-4 hours, and the time resolution of the short term and ultra-short term prediction is at least 15 minutes. In the ultra-short-period power prediction, the shadow formed by the sunshine sheltered by the cloud cluster changes along with the movement and the generation and the elimination of the cloud cluster, and is the main reason for causing the large fluctuation of the generating power of the photovoltaic power station.
At present, a method for predicting the generated power of a photovoltaic power station mainly adopts a neural network algorithm, a support vector machine algorithm and the like to perform short-term prediction based on statistical analysis or machine learning of historical meteorological data and output power data of the photovoltaic power station, but the schemes do not relate to cloud image data and are difficult to predict the generated power mutation caused by cloud cluster shielding on an ultra-short-term time scale. In part of methods, the moving condition of the cloud cluster is estimated according to the meteorological cloud pictures, so that the solar irradiance is predicted, but the time resolution and the spatial resolution of the common meteorological cloud pictures are 30 minutes and 2.5 kilometers respectively, so that the method is not suitable for ultra-short-term prediction requirements.
In recent years, with the development of charge coupled device technology and digital image processing technology, ground remote sensing cloud measuring instruments such as ground sky imagers and the like can be used for better monitoring the aerial cloud cluster on a photovoltaic power station in real time, for example, the Chinese patent with the application number of 201310215543.0 can perform ultra-short-term power prediction on the output power of the photovoltaic power station according to the ground cloud graph, analyze the influence of the cloud cluster on the power generation of the photovoltaic power station, the minimum time resolution can reach 30 seconds, and the requirement of ultra-short-term time scale can be met.
For another example, in chinese patent application No. 201710638833.4, the technical solution disclosed in the patent is to form a unit array sensor by using a plurality of power sensors, arrange the unit array sensors in a circular array with a photovoltaic power plant as a center, and obtain a cloud cluster motion vector and photovoltaic power generation power at a current position by monitoring and comparing data of the sensors, thereby accurately and continuously predicting power generation power of the photovoltaic power plant located at the center position after several minutes.
The applicant finds, through research, that the method for performing ultra-short-term power prediction according to the foundation cloud chart in chinese patent 201310215543.0 has the following disadvantages: 1) when the cloud blocks the photovoltaic power station to cause irradiation reduction, the height and the thickness of the cloud cluster influence the irradiation reduction degree, the information of the height and the thickness of the cloud cluster is difficult to obtain by the foundation cloud picture, the influence of cloud cluster shadow on irradiation is difficult to accurately predict, and prediction errors can be caused. 2) The ground sky imager has a small monitoring range, so that the ground sky imager can move out of the monitoring range quickly when the cloud cluster moves at a high speed. The predicted time scale may not meet the requirement of the ultra-short term 4 hours.
The method for predicting the power according to the ground-based sensor in the Chinese patent 201710638833.4 has the following disadvantages: the sensor has the advantages of wide arrangement range, long communication line, high construction difficulty and high cost, and is difficult to find a sensor installation position meeting the requirements under the conditions of complex field terrain conditions, dense distributed photovoltaic surrounding buildings and the like.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, embodiments of the present invention provide a method and an apparatus for predicting generated power of a photovoltaic power station, so as to achieve ultra-short-term accurate prediction of the generated power of the photovoltaic power station.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the embodiments of the present invention provide the following technical solutions:
a method for predicting the generated power of a photovoltaic power station comprises the following steps:
acquiring actual power generation power data of each photovoltaic power generation area;
judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding and the influence degree based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, and recording the moment when the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by the cloud cluster shadow shielding;
calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference of the moments of the photovoltaic power generation areas which are influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow;
and predicting the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the traveling path based on the traveling path, the traveling speed and the influence degree of the cloud cluster.
Optionally, in the method for predicting the generated power of the photovoltaic power station, the photovoltaic power generation area refers to a photovoltaic power generation station or a photovoltaic string.
Optionally, in the method for predicting the generated power of the photovoltaic power station, based on a comparison result between the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud shadow shielding and the influence degree are determined, including:
acquiring theoretical power generation data of the photovoltaic power generation area under clear sky;
judging whether the difference between the actual power generation data and the theoretical power generation data is larger than a preset difference value or not, and when the difference value is larger than the preset difference value, indicating that the power generation power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding;
and when the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow, taking the ratio of the actual generated power data to the theoretical generated power data as the influence degree of the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area influenced by the cloud cluster shadow.
Optionally, in the method for predicting the generated power of the photovoltaic power station, the theoretical power generation data is the generated power data of the photovoltaic power generation area in a clear sky meteorological parameter, and the clear sky meteorological parameter refers to actual generated power data corresponding to the actual generated power data.
Optionally, in the method for predicting the generated power of the photovoltaic power station, the step of calculating the advancing path and the advancing speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference between the moments of the photovoltaic power stations affected by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow includes:
and acquiring longitude and latitude coordinate values of each photovoltaic power station, and calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the longitude and latitude coordinate values and the difference value of the moment when each photovoltaic power station is influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow.
A photovoltaic power plant generated power prediction apparatus comprising:
the actual power acquisition unit is used for acquiring actual power generation power data of each photovoltaic power generation area;
the shielding judgment unit is used for judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is shielded and influenced by cloud cluster shadows and judging the influence degree of the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, and recording the moment when the photovoltaic power station is shielded and influenced by the cloud cluster shadows;
the cloud cluster advancing parameter calculating unit is used for calculating and obtaining an advancing path and an advancing speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference value of the moment when each photovoltaic power station is influenced by the shielding of cloud cluster shadow;
and the generated power prediction unit is used for predicting the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the traveling path based on the traveling path, the traveling speed and the influence degree of the cloud cluster.
Optionally, in the device for predicting the generated power of the photovoltaic power station, the photovoltaic power generation area refers to a photovoltaic power generation station or a photovoltaic string.
Optionally, in the device for predicting the generated power of the photovoltaic power station, the shielding judgment unit is specifically configured to, when judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is shielded by cloud shadows and influenced by the cloud cluster shadows based on the comparison result between the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data:
acquiring theoretical power generation data of the photovoltaic power generation area under clear sky;
judging whether the difference between the actual power generation data and the theoretical power generation data is larger than a preset difference value or not, and when the difference value is larger than the preset difference value, indicating that the power generation power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding;
and when the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow, taking the ratio of the actual generated power data to the theoretical generated power data as the influence degree of the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area influenced by the cloud cluster shadow.
Optionally, in the device for predicting the generated power of the photovoltaic power station, the theoretical power generation data is the generated power data of the photovoltaic power generation area in a clear sky meteorological parameter, and the clear sky meteorological parameter refers to actual generated power data corresponding to the actual generated power data.
Optionally, in the photovoltaic power plant generated power prediction apparatus, the cloud cluster travelling parameter calculating unit is specifically configured to, when calculating the travelling path and travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on a difference between moments of the photovoltaic power plants influenced by the cloud cluster shadow, calculate:
and acquiring longitude and latitude coordinate values of each photovoltaic power station, and calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the longitude and latitude coordinate values and the difference value of the moment when each photovoltaic power station is influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow.
A photovoltaic power plant generated power prediction device apparatus comprising:
a memory and a processor; the memory stores a program adapted for execution by the processor, the program for:
acquiring actual power generation power data of each photovoltaic power generation area;
judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding and the influence degree based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, and recording the moment when the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by the cloud cluster shadow shielding;
calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference of the moments of the photovoltaic power generation areas which are influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow;
and predicting the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the traveling path based on the traveling path, the traveling speed and the influence degree of the cloud cluster.
Based on the technical scheme, the scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention obtains the actual power generation power data of each photovoltaic power generation area; judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding and the influence degree based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, and recording the moment when the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by the cloud cluster shadow shielding; calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference of the moments of the photovoltaic power generation areas which are influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow; and predicting the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the traveling path based on the traveling path, the traveling speed and the influence degree of the cloud cluster. The actual influence degree of cloud cluster shadow on the power generation of the photovoltaic power generation region is obtained through analyzing the change condition of the power generation power of the photovoltaic power generation region when the cloud cluster shadow is shielded, the power generation power of the photovoltaic power generation region is predicted based on the actual influence degree of the cloud cluster shadow on the power generation of the photovoltaic power generation region, and the accuracy is high. Based on the data that cloud blocking has occurred in a part of photovoltaic power generation areas in the area, the future cloud blocking situation of a plurality of photovoltaic power generation areas in the area can be predicted. The photovoltaic power generation area is used as a data source, and devices such as a ground sky imager and a foundation sensor do not need to be additionally installed, so that the cost is low and the photovoltaic power generation area is easy to realize.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting the generated power of a photovoltaic power station, disclosed in an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for predicting generated power of a photovoltaic power station, disclosed in an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a photovoltaic power plant generated power prediction device disclosed in an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
In order to realize the photovoltaic power station generated power prediction method in the photovoltaic power generation area under the condition that the cloud cluster shelters from the influence, the method comprises the following steps:
step S101: acquiring actual power generation power data of each photovoltaic power generation area;
in the scheme, the photovoltaic power generation area can refer to an integral area of the photovoltaic power generation station, and can also refer to a photovoltaic group string or a photovoltaic module in the photovoltaic power generation station, and when the photovoltaic power generation area refers to the photovoltaic group string or the photovoltaic module in the photovoltaic power generation station, the accuracy of the prediction result of the technical scheme disclosed by the application is higher.
Step S102: judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding and the influence degree based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, and recording the moment when the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by the cloud cluster shadow shielding;
in this scheme, the cloud layers have different thicknesses and have different degrees of influence on the generated power data of the photovoltaic power generation region, for example, the generated power when the photovoltaic power generation region is shielded by a thick cloud cluster is a1, the generated power when the photovoltaic power generation region is shielded by a thin cloud cluster is a2, and the generated power is a1 and is less than the generated power is a 2. In the scheme, the obtained actual power generation data at a certain moment is recorded as Ps, the meteorological parameter corresponding to the photovoltaic power generation area corresponding to the moment is obtained, the meteorological parameter is a clear sky meteorological parameter, namely, the meteorological parameter under the cloud cluster condition is not considered, the meteorological parameter is a meteorological parameter used for calculating the power generation of the photovoltaic power generation area, the power generation data of the photovoltaic power generation area matched with the clear sky meteorological parameter is obtained and recorded as P1 and recorded as theoretical power generation data, the Ps and the P1 are compared, if the Ps is less than the P1 and the difference between the Ps and the P1 is greater than a preset difference value, and after a period of time, the difference value between the Ps and the P1 is reduced to a degree smaller than the preset difference value, which indicates that the photovoltaic power generation area is shielded by the cloud cluster, and the influence degree is Ps/Pl, namely, the ratio of the actual power generation data to the theoretical power generation data,
in the technical solution disclosed in the embodiment of the present application, the theoretical power generation data may also be calculated according to the actual power generation condition of the photovoltaic power generation region, for example, in the technical solution disclosed in the embodiment of the present application, the actual power generation power data provided by the photovoltaic power generation region may be counted, the actual power generation power data provided by the photovoltaic power generation region is divided into a plurality of power intervals, and an average power value corresponding to the power interval having the longest specific duration is used as the theoretical power generation data, for example, the total duration of the output power of the photovoltaic power generation region being a is 1 hour, and the total duration of the output power of the photovoltaic power generation region being B is 1 minute, then a is used as the theoretical power generation data.
Step S103: calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference of the moments of the photovoltaic power generation areas which are influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow;
according to the scheme, after the moment when each photovoltaic power generation area is shielded and influenced by cloud cluster shadows is obtained through calculation, the longitude and latitude coordinates of each photovoltaic power generation area are obtained, and the advancing speed and the advancing path of the cloud end relative to the photovoltaic power generation areas on the ground can be calculated and obtained based on the moment when each photovoltaic power generation area is shielded and influenced by the cloud cluster shadows and the distance and the azimuth relation among the photovoltaic power generation areas.
Step S104: predicting the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the traveling path based on the traveling path, the traveling speed and the influence degree of the cloud cluster;
in this step, after the traveling path and the traveling speed of the cloud cluster are obtained through calculation, the time when the cloud cluster blocks the next photovoltaic power generation area can be calculated based on the traveling speed and the traveling path, and then the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the traveling path is predicted based on the degree of influence.
The technical scheme disclosed by the embodiment has the following beneficial effects:
1) the prediction accuracy is higher
The actual influence degree of cloud cluster shadow on the power generation of the photovoltaic power generation region is obtained through analyzing the change condition of the power generation power of the photovoltaic power generation region when the cloud cluster shadow is shielded, the power generation power of the photovoltaic power generation region is predicted based on the actual influence degree of the cloud cluster shadow on the power generation of the photovoltaic power generation region, and the accuracy is high.
2) Prediction of a plurality of photovoltaic power generation areas can be realized
Based on the data that cloud blocking has occurred in a part of photovoltaic power generation areas in the area, the future cloud blocking situation of a plurality of photovoltaic power generation areas in the area can be predicted.
3) Low cost and high operability
The photovoltaic power generation area is used as a data source, and devices such as a ground sky imager and a foundation sensor do not need to be additionally installed, so that the cost is low and the photovoltaic power generation area is easy to realize.
Furthermore, the method and the device can calculate the shielding time of the cloud cluster according to the recovery time of the actual generated power data of the photovoltaic power generation area shielded by the cloud cluster and the moment when the photovoltaic power station is shielded by the cloud cluster shadow, and can accurately predict the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the travelling path based on the shielding time of the cloud cluster, the travelling path, the travelling speed and the influence degree.
And acquiring longitude and latitude coordinate values of each photovoltaic power station, and calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the longitude and latitude coordinate values and the difference value of the moment when each photovoltaic power station is influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow.
Furthermore, the thickness degree, the advancing direction and the advancing speed of the cloud cluster can be changed in the advancing process, so that the influence degree, the advancing direction and the advancing speed can be updated in real time based on the real-time measurement result.
Corresponding to the above method embodiment, the present application also discloses a photovoltaic power station generated power prediction apparatus, and in this embodiment, the specific working content of each unit please refer to the content of the above method embodiment
The photovoltaic power station generated power prediction device provided by the embodiment of the invention is described below, and the photovoltaic power station generated power prediction device described below and the photovoltaic power station generated power prediction method described above can be referred to correspondingly.
Referring to fig. 2, the apparatus may include:
the actual power acquisition unit 1 corresponds to the step S101 in the method, and is configured to acquire actual power generation power data of each photovoltaic power generation area;
the shielding judgment unit 2 corresponds to the step S102 in the method, and is configured to judge whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is shielded by cloud cluster shadows and judge the degree of influence of the generated power based on the comparison result between the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, and record the time when the photovoltaic power station is shielded by the cloud cluster shadows;
the cloud cluster advancing parameter calculating unit 3 corresponds to the step S103 in the method, and is configured to calculate an advancing path and an advancing speed of the cloud cluster based on a difference between times at which the photovoltaic power stations are affected by the cloud cluster shadow;
the generated power prediction unit 4, corresponding to step S104 in the above method, is configured to predict the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the travel path based on the travel path, the travel speed, and the influence degree of the cloud cluster.
Corresponding to the method, the photovoltaic power generation area refers to a photovoltaic power generation station or a photovoltaic group string or even a photovoltaic module.
Corresponding to the method, when the shielding judgment unit judges whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by the shielding of cloud cluster shadow and the influence degree based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, the shielding judgment unit is specifically configured to:
acquiring theoretical power generation data of the photovoltaic power generation area under clear sky;
judging whether the difference between the actual power generation data and the theoretical power generation data is larger than a preset difference value or not, and when the difference value is larger than the preset difference value, indicating that the power generation power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding;
and when the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow, taking the ratio of the actual generated power data to the theoretical generated power data as the influence degree of the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area influenced by the cloud cluster shadow.
Corresponding to the method, the theoretical power generation data is the power generation power data of the photovoltaic power generation area under the clear sky meteorological parameters of the photovoltaic power generation area, and the clear sky meteorological parameters refer to actual power generation power data corresponding to the actual power generation power data.
Corresponding to the method, the cloud cluster advancing parameter calculating unit is specifically configured to, when calculating the advancing path and the advancing speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference between the moments of the photovoltaic power stations affected by the cloud cluster shadow, perform:
and acquiring longitude and latitude coordinate values of each photovoltaic power station, and calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the longitude and latitude coordinate values and the difference value of the moment when each photovoltaic power station is influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow.
Fig. 3 is a hardware structure diagram of a photovoltaic power plant generated power prediction device according to an embodiment of the present invention, which is shown in fig. 3 and includes: the photovoltaic power plant generated power prediction apparatus may include: at least one processor 100, at least one communication interface 200, at least one memory 300, and at least one communication bus 400;
in the embodiment of the present invention, the number of the processor 100, the communication interface 200, the memory 300, and the communication bus 400 is at least one, and the processor 100, the communication interface 200, and the memory 300 complete the communication with each other through the communication bus 400; it is clear that the communication connections shown by the processor 100, the communication interface 200, the memory 300 and the communication bus 400 shown in fig. 3 are merely optional;
optionally, the communication interface 200 may be an interface of a communication module, such as an interface of a GSM module;
the processor 100 may be a central processing unit CPU or an application Specific Integrated circuit asic or one or more Integrated circuits configured to implement embodiments of the present invention.
Wherein, the processor 100 is specifically configured to:
acquiring actual power generation power data of each photovoltaic power generation area;
judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding and the influence degree based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, and recording the moment when the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by the cloud cluster shadow shielding;
calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference of the moments of the photovoltaic power generation areas which are influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow;
and predicting the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the traveling path based on the traveling path, the traveling speed and the influence degree of the cloud cluster.
For convenience of description, the above devices are described as being divided into various modules by functions, and are described separately. Of course, the functionality of the various modules may be implemented in the same one or more software and/or hardware implementations of the invention.
The embodiments in the present specification are described in a progressive manner, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from the other embodiments. In particular, the method or apparatus embodiments are substantially similar to the method embodiments and therefore are described in a relatively simple manner, and reference may be made to some of the descriptions of the method embodiments for related areas. The above-described embodiments of the method and apparatus are merely illustrative, and the units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the present embodiment. One of ordinary skill in the art can understand and implement it without inventive effort.
Those of skill would further appreciate that the various illustrative elements and algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware, computer software, or combinations of both, and that the various illustrative components and steps have been described above generally in terms of their functionality in order to clearly illustrate this interchangeability of hardware and software. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the implementation. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present invention.
The steps of a method or algorithm described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be embodied directly in hardware, in a software module executed by a processor, or in a combination of the two. A software module may reside in Random Access Memory (RAM), memory, Read Only Memory (ROM), electrically programmable ROM, electrically erasable programmable ROM, registers, hard disk, a removable disk, a CD-ROM, or any other form of storage medium known in the art.
It is further noted that, herein, relational terms such as first and second, and the like may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
The previous description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
Claims (10)
1. A method for predicting the generated power of a photovoltaic power station is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring actual power generation power data of each photovoltaic power generation area;
judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding and the influence degree based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, and recording the moment when the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by the cloud cluster shadow shielding;
calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference of the moments of the photovoltaic power generation areas which are influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow;
and predicting the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the traveling path based on the traveling path, the traveling speed and the influence degree of the cloud cluster.
2. The method of predicting generated power of a photovoltaic power plant according to claim 1, wherein said photovoltaic power generation area is a photovoltaic power plant or a string of photovoltaic groups.
3. The method for predicting the generated power of the photovoltaic power station according to claim 1, wherein the step of judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding and the influence degree based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data comprises the steps of:
acquiring theoretical power generation data of the photovoltaic power generation area under clear sky;
judging whether the difference between the actual power generation data and the theoretical power generation data is larger than a preset difference value or not, and when the difference value is larger than the preset difference value, indicating that the power generation power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding;
and when the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow, taking the ratio of the actual generated power data to the theoretical generated power data as the influence degree of the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area influenced by the cloud cluster shadow.
4. The method for predicting the generated power of the photovoltaic power plant according to claim 1, wherein the theoretical power generation data is the generated power data of the photovoltaic power generation area under a clear sky meteorological parameter, and the clear sky meteorological parameter refers to actual generated power data corresponding to the actual generated power data.
5. The method for predicting the generated power of the photovoltaic power stations according to claim 1, wherein the step of calculating the traveling path and the traveling speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference of the moments of the photovoltaic power stations affected by the cloud cluster shadow comprises the following steps:
and acquiring longitude and latitude coordinate values of each photovoltaic power station, and calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the longitude and latitude coordinate values and the difference value of the moment when each photovoltaic power station is influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow.
6. A photovoltaic power plant generated power prediction device characterized by comprising:
the actual power acquisition unit is used for acquiring actual power generation power data of each photovoltaic power generation area;
the shielding judgment unit is used for judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is shielded and influenced by cloud cluster shadows and judging the influence degree of the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, and recording the moment when the photovoltaic power station is shielded and influenced by the cloud cluster shadows;
the cloud cluster advancing parameter calculating unit is used for calculating and obtaining an advancing path and an advancing speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference value of the moment when each photovoltaic power station is influenced by the shielding of cloud cluster shadow;
and the generated power prediction unit is used for predicting the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the traveling path based on the traveling path, the traveling speed and the influence degree of the cloud cluster.
7. The photovoltaic power plant generated power prediction device of claim 6 wherein the photovoltaic power generation area is referred to as a photovoltaic power plant or a string of photovoltaic strings.
8. The device for predicting the generated power of the photovoltaic power plant according to claim 6, wherein the occlusion determination unit, when determining whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is affected by occlusion of cloud shadows and the degree of the impact based on the comparison result between the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, is specifically configured to:
acquiring theoretical power generation data of the photovoltaic power generation area under clear sky;
judging whether the difference between the actual power generation data and the theoretical power generation data is larger than a preset difference value or not, and when the difference value is larger than the preset difference value, indicating that the power generation power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding;
and when the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow, taking the ratio of the actual generated power data to the theoretical generated power data as the influence degree of the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area influenced by the cloud cluster shadow.
9. The photovoltaic power plant generated power prediction apparatus of claim 6, wherein the cloud travel parameter calculation unit is specifically configured to, when calculating the travel path and the travel speed of the cloud based on a difference between times at which the respective photovoltaic power plants are affected by cloud shadow occlusion, specifically:
and acquiring longitude and latitude coordinate values of each photovoltaic power station, and calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the longitude and latitude coordinate values and the difference value of the moment when each photovoltaic power station is influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow.
10. A photovoltaic power plant generated power prediction device apparatus characterized by comprising:
a memory and a processor; the memory stores a program adapted for execution by the processor, the program for:
acquiring actual power generation power data of each photovoltaic power generation area;
judging whether the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by cloud cluster shadow shielding and the influence degree based on the comparison result of the actual generated power data and the theoretical generated power data, and recording the moment when the photovoltaic power generation area is influenced by the cloud cluster shadow shielding;
calculating to obtain a travelling path and a travelling speed of the cloud cluster based on the difference of the moments of the photovoltaic power generation areas which are influenced by the shielding of the cloud cluster shadow;
and predicting the generated power of each photovoltaic power generation area on the traveling path based on the traveling path, the traveling speed and the influence degree of the cloud cluster.
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