CN112785053A - Method and system for forecasting urban drainage basin flood - Google Patents
Method and system for forecasting urban drainage basin flood Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a system for predicting urban drainage basin flooding, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining the rain type space-time distribution of the urban area according to historical data; establishing a flood simulation scene library by simulating parameters under different scenes of the area by utilizing a refined flood model according to the rain type space-time distribution and the river course flood boundary conditions; establishing a rainstorm flood relational expression and an inland inundation simulation relational expression based on simulation data; correcting the acquired rainfall forecast data according to the rainfall type space-time distribution, and dividing different scenes; and performing data matching on the rainstorm flood relation and the waterlogging simulation relation and different scenes, and when the matching degree is greater than preset, using the simulation data in the flood simulation scene library as the information for forecasting the flood of the urban drainage basin. The method can quickly calculate the peak flow and the total flood volume of each node in the forecast period, the positions of the ponding points, the ponding depths, the ponding duration and other information, realizes quick forecast and research and judgment of urban flood disasters, and strives for precious time for flood control and drainage emergency management.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of hydrologic prediction, in particular to a method and a system for forecasting urban drainage basin flooding.
Background
The flood disaster is one of natural disasters causing the greatest loss to people in the world at present, and is influenced by urban rain island effect, frequent short-time strong rainfall in urban areas, special terrain topography and underlying surface conditions, and the superposition of disaster-causing factors such as population, social economy and the like, so that the risk and uncertainty of the urban flood disaster are greatly increased.
The numerical model is an important technical means for city flood control and disaster reduction, as the city flood model becomes more and more refined, simulation elements and parameters become more and more abundant, model development is highly dense and mismatched with monitoring information, model algorithm redundancy is continuously increased, and due to the natural properties of large flow capacity and fast convergence of the city drainage basin, the problems that the time required for forecasting, simulating and calculating the city drainage basin flood is long and the time reserved for flood control command decision-making is short exist.
Disclosure of Invention
Therefore, the method and the system for forecasting the urban drainage basin flood provided by the invention overcome the defects that the time for forecasting, simulating and calculating the urban drainage basin flood is longer and the time for reserving flood control command decisions is short in the prior art.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
in a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting urban drainage basin flooding, including:
extracting a historical rainfall data set of the urban area to be predicted, analyzing rainfall time sequence samples of rainfall stations of each field in preset time, and determining rainfall type space-time distribution of the urban area;
simulating flood characteristic parameters and ponding characteristic parameters of each river channel node under different scenes of the area by using a refined flood model according to the rain type space-time distribution and the river channel flood boundary conditions, and establishing a flood simulation scene library;
establishing a rainstorm flood relational expression and an waterlogging simulation relational expression based on simulation data of the flood simulation scene library;
according to the rainfall type space-time distribution, the rainfall data of the rainfall forecasting process is corrected, and the safety scene and the adverse scene are divided; and respectively carrying out data matching on the rainstorm flood relational expression and the waterlogging simulation relational expression with the safety situation and the adverse situation, and when the matching degree is greater than a preset value, taking corresponding simulation data in the flood simulation situation library as the information for forecasting the flood of the urban drainage basin.
In one embodiment, the step of determining a rain-type spatiotemporal distribution of the urban area comprises:
calculating the rainfall proportion of each rainfall station of each field in the preset time according to the rainfall time sequence sample of each rainfall station of each field in the urban area to be predicted in the preset time;
dividing the weather moving path of each field of the area based on a k-means algorithm; clustering analysis is carried out on the weather moving path and the rainfall proportion by using a k-means algorithm, and the rainfall types of all rainfall stations are extracted in a classified manner;
constructing a Thiessen polygon according to the positions of the rainfall stations, and dividing the rainfall type spatial distribution of the rainfall stations; and determining the rain type space-time distribution of the area based on the rain type of the rainfall at each rainfall station and the corresponding rain type space distribution.
In one embodiment, the rainfall ratio of each session in the preset time is calculated by the following formula:
xi＝max{Pi j},j∈[1,n]
wherein m is the number of rainfall stations; n is the total number of rainfall fields; t is a rainfall period; x is the number ofiPresetting a time rainfall time sequence for the ith rainfall station; pi jIs the total rainfall amount of the j-th rainfall of the ith rainfall station in the preset time,
the rainfall of the ith rainfall station in the preset time according to the t-th time period in the rainfall sequence;
presetting the total rainfall amount for the ith rainfall station at a preset time;
the rainfall ratio of the ith time period in the rainfall sequence of the ith rainfall station is obtained.
In one embodiment, the forecast rainfall process is used as a safety situation, and the forecast rainfall process corrected by the actual rainfall pattern is used as an adverse situation.
In one embodiment, a refined flood model is applied to simulate flood characteristic parameters and ponding characteristic parameters of each river channel node in different situations of the area, and a flood simulation situation library is established, including:
according to the design of the rain type and the rainfall rain type, distinguishing the long duration scene from the short duration scene, acquiring river channel flood boundary conditions with frequency corresponding to the long duration scene and the short duration scene, applying a refined flood model for simulation, generating parameters of peak flow and total flood amount, area water point positions, water depth and water duration of all river channel rainfall stations, and constructing a flood simulation scene library.
In one embodiment, the rainfall data obtained for the forecasted rainfall event is modified by the following formula:
in the formula ,
the corrected rainfall for the t-th time period of the ith area; piThe total amount of rainfall forecast for the ith area;
is the rainfall proportion of the ith area in the t period.
In one embodiment, the establishing of the rainstorm flood relational expression and the waterlogging simulation relational expression based on the simulation data of the flood simulation scenario library comprises: establishing a linear regression mathematical expression as a rainstorm flood relational expression according to linear relations among the total flood amount, the peak flow and the peak time of different scenes; and establishing a linear regression mathematical expression as an inland inundation simulation relational expression according to the linear relation among the depth of the ponding, the duration of the ponding and the range of the ponding in different scenes.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a system for predicting urban drainage basin flooding, including:
the rainfall type space-time distribution determining module is used for extracting a rainfall data set of historical scenes of the urban area to be predicted, analyzing rainfall time sequence samples of rainfall stations of each scene in preset time and determining the rainfall type space-time distribution of the urban area;
the flood simulation scene library establishing module is used for simulating flood characteristic parameters and ponding characteristic parameters of each river channel node under different scenes of the area by utilizing a refined flood model according to the rainfall type space-time distribution and the river channel flood boundary conditions, and establishing a flood simulation scene library;
the flood and waterlogging relational expression establishing module is used for establishing a rainstorm flood relational expression and a waterlogging relational expression based on the simulation data of the flood simulation scene library;
the urban drainage basin flood information forecasting module is used for correcting the acquired rainfall data in the rainfall forecasting process according to the rainfall type space-time distribution and dividing safety scenes and adverse scenes; and respectively carrying out data matching on the rainstorm flood relational expression and the waterlogging simulation relational expression with the safety situation and the adverse situation, and when the matching degree is greater than a preset value, taking corresponding simulation data in the flood simulation situation library as the information for forecasting the flood of the urban drainage basin.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a terminal, including: the urban river basin flood prediction method comprises at least one processor and a memory which is in communication connection with the at least one processor, wherein the memory stores instructions which can be executed by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor, so that the at least one processor executes the urban river basin flood prediction method according to the first aspect of the embodiment of the invention.
In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, where computer instructions are stored, and the computer instructions are configured to cause the computer to execute the method for predicting urban drainage flood according to the first aspect of the embodiment of the present invention.
The technical scheme of the invention has the following advantages:
according to the urban drainage basin flood prediction method and system, the rain type space-time distribution of urban areas is determined according to historical data; establishing a flood simulation scene library by simulating parameters under different scenes of the area by utilizing a refined flood model according to the rain type space-time distribution and the river course flood boundary conditions; establishing a rainstorm flood relational expression and an inland inundation simulation relational expression based on simulation data; correcting the acquired rainfall forecast data according to the rainfall type space-time distribution, and dividing different scenes; and performing data matching on the rainstorm flood relation and the waterlogging simulation relation and different scenes, and when the matching degree is greater than preset, using the simulation data in the flood simulation scene library as the information for forecasting the flood of the urban drainage basin. The method can quickly calculate the peak flow and the total flood volume of each node in the forecast period, the positions of the ponding points, the ponding depths, the ponding duration and other information, realizes quick forecast and research and judgment of urban flood disasters, and strives for precious time for flood control and drainage emergency management.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings can be obtained by those skilled in the art without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a specific example of a method for predicting urban drainage basin flooding according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of 6 rain types in Beijing;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of 6 rain profiles in Beijing;
fig. 4 is a diagram illustrating a relationship between rainfall and peak flow of the zhanjiawan gate according to the embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a block diagram of a system for predicting urban drainage basin flooding according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a composition diagram of a specific example of a terminal according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, and it should be understood that the described embodiments are some, but not all embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
In addition, the technical features involved in the different embodiments of the present invention described below may be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.
Example 1
The method for predicting the urban drainage basin flooding provided by the embodiment of the invention, as shown in fig. 1, comprises the following steps:
step S1: and extracting a historical rainfall data set of the urban area to be predicted, analyzing rainfall time sequence samples of rainfall stations of each field in preset time, and determining rainfall type space-time distribution of the urban area.
In the embodiment of the invention, according to the historical rainfall data set of the urban area to be predicted, the maximum 24-hour rainfall time sequence of each station is extracted, the proportion of the rainfall per time interval to the maximum 24-hour rainfall total amount is calculated, and by way of example only, not by way of limitation, the selection of the corresponding event section is performed according to actual requirements in actual application.
In the embodiment of the invention, the step of determining the rain-type space-time distribution of the urban area comprises the following steps: calculating the rainfall proportion of each rainfall station of each field in the preset time according to the rainfall time sequence sample of each rainfall station of each field in the urban area to be predicted in the preset time; dividing the weather moving path of each field of the area based on a k-means algorithm; clustering analysis is carried out on the weather moving path and the rainfall proportion by using a k-means algorithm, and the rainfall types of all rainfall stations are extracted in a classified manner; constructing a Thiessen polygon according to the positions of the rainfall stations, and dividing the rainfall type spatial distribution of the rainfall stations; and determining the rain type space-time distribution of the area based on the rain type of each rainfall station and the rain type space distribution of the corresponding field.
In the embodiment of the invention, the rainfall proportion of each field in the preset time is calculated by the following formula:
xi＝max{Pi j},j∈[1,n]
wherein m is the number of rainfall stations; n is the total number of rainfall fields; t is a rainfall period; x is the number ofiPresetting a time rainfall time sequence for the ith rainfall station; pi jIs the total rainfall amount of the j-th rainfall of the ith rainfall station in the preset time,
the rainfall of the ith rainfall station in the preset time according to the t-th time period in the rainfall sequence;
presetting the total rainfall amount for the ith rainfall station at a preset time;
the rainfall ratio of the ith time period in the rainfall sequence of the ith rainfall station is obtained.
Step S2: and simulating flood characteristic parameters and ponding characteristic parameters of each river channel node under different scenes of the area by using a refined flood model according to the rain type space-time distribution and the river channel flood boundary conditions, and establishing a flood simulation scene library.
In the embodiment of the invention, a refined flood model is applied to simulate flood characteristic parameters and ponding characteristic parameters of each river channel node in different situations of the area, and a flood simulation situation library is established, which comprises the following steps: according to the design of the rain type and the rainfall rain type, distinguishing the long duration scene from the short duration scene, acquiring river channel flood boundary conditions with frequency corresponding to the long duration scene and the short duration scene, applying a refined flood model for simulation, generating parameters of peak flow and total flood amount, area water point positions, water depth and water duration of all river channel rainfall stations, and constructing a flood simulation scene library.
In a specific embodiment, long duration and short duration scenarios are distinguished according to design rain type and rainfall rain type, the long duration is selected to be 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years and 100 years, the short duration is selected to be 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years, which are taken as examples only, but not limited thereto, and the corresponding long duration and short duration years are selected according to actual requirements in practical application; inputting corresponding frequency river channel flood boundary conditions, for example, performing rainfall distribution through Chicago rain patterns, and performing scene setting on rainstorm spatial distribution according to a similar rain pattern distribution rule in a research area, which is only taken as an example and is not limited to the example, and in practical application, setting corresponding boundary conditions according to practical requirements; and simulating by using a refined flood model, simulating and outputting the peak flow and the total flood amount of each river hydrological station, and information such as the position of the regional ponding point, the depth of the ponding, the duration of the ponding and the like, and constructing a flood simulation scene library.
Step S3: and establishing a rainstorm flood relational expression and an waterlogging simulation relational expression based on the simulation data of the flood simulation scene library.
In the embodiment of the invention, a linear regression mathematical expression is established according to the linear relation among the total flood amount, the peak flow and the peak time of different scenes, and is used as a torrential rain flood relation; and establishing a linear regression mathematical expression as an inland inundation simulation relational expression according to the linear relation among the depth of the ponding, the duration of the ponding and the range of the ponding in different scenes.
Step S4: according to the rainfall type space-time distribution, the rainfall data of the rainfall forecasting process is corrected, and the safety scene and the adverse scene are divided; and respectively carrying out data matching on the rainstorm flood relational expression and the waterlogging simulation relational expression with the safety situation and the adverse situation, and when the matching degree is greater than a preset value, taking corresponding simulation data in the flood simulation situation library as the information for forecasting the flood of the urban drainage basin.
In the embodiment of the invention, the rainfall forecasting process is taken as a safety scene, and the rainfall forecasting process after the actual rainfall type correction is taken as an adverse scene.
In a specific embodiment, the subjective forecast climate mode is flood risk early warning and flood scheduling basic data, the spatial resolution is 1km of grids, the time resolution is 1h, the rainfall process is predicted for 24h in the future, and the coverage range of 24h rainfall exceeding one year (rainfall >47mm) is extracted based on a subjective forecast climate mode forecast product; correcting and forecasting the rainfall process by using the extracted rainfall pattern to serve as the worst situation, and taking the forecasted rainfall process as the safest situation; and respectively calculating the peak flow and the total flood of each river channel node of the two situations according to rainfall characteristic parameters in combination with a rainstorm flood quantitative expression and a simulation scenario library, and calling the most similar waterlogging simulation scenario to quickly predict the floods.
In the embodiment of the invention, the rainfall data of the rainfall forecasting process is corrected by the following formula:
in the formula ,
the corrected rainfall for the t-th time period of the ith area; piThe total amount of rainfall forecast for the ith area;
is the rainfall proportion of the ith area in the t period.
In a specific embodiment, the river basin of Beijing urban cool water is taken as a research area, and the area of the river basin is 655km2Taking 12-day rainfall in 8 months in 2020 as an example:
firstly, according to 276 times of strong convection weather moving path data in total in Beijing cities, 6 main moving paths are extracted, and a k-means algorithm parameter k is determined to be 6 types based on the main moving paths. Northwest road 1: the source is located in the dam head area at the junction of the ocean river valley and the Mongolian plateau. Moving to the south east along the Yanghe and the Yongding river valley near Zhang Bei, Wanquan and Zhang Jiakou; northwest road 2: starting from the west segment of a 150km big horse group mountain away from the northwest of Beijing, moving to the south through Chicheng, Haoyoushan, Yanqing and Chang; ③ west road: produced in mountain areas such as Taizhitang, Linchen, etc. in the west of Beijing and spread to east or northeast; fourthly, north road: produced in east section of Maqun mountain, through dam head, Yanqing, Jundu mountain, Changping, and other areas; the east road: move from north east to south west; sixthly, locally generating: it is only 6%. Aiming at historical rainfall data, extracting a maximum 24-hour rainfall sequence of each station, and calculating the proportion of rainfall per time interval to the maximum 24-hour rainfall total; taking the result as a historical rainstorm data set, applying a k-means algorithm to perform clustering analysis, and identifying the rainfall type of each rainfall station; as shown in fig. 2, for the identified 6 rain type types. Based on the positions of rainfall stations in the drainage basin, a Thiessen polygon is constructed, and the rain type spatial distribution is divided, as shown in FIG. 3, the distribution situation is 6 rain types.
Constructing a flood simulation scene library, which comprises the following specific steps: setting of rainfall scene for 24 h: according to the Beijing hydrology manual-rainstorm atlas, the maximum total rainfall amounts of 1h, 6h and 24h in different reappearance periods in the research area range are inquired, and the 24h designed rainfall process is calculated. Short-duration 1h rainfall scenario setting: and calculating the design rainfall by using a rainstorm intensity formula, and distributing the rainfall process based on the Chicago rainfall pattern. According to the storm distribution rule of the cold water river basin, setting the storm spatial distribution scene respectively upstream, midstream or downstream according to the general rainfall and storm centers of the whole basin. Setting a design rainfall scene based on a refined flood model, and simulating peak flow and total flood of each river channel node, and characteristic parameters of regional ponding depth, ponding total volume and ponding duration. And integrating the information to establish a flood simulation scene library.
Establishing a rainstorm flood quantitative relation, which comprises the following specific steps: and (4) carrying out statistical analysis on the linear relation between the total rainfall amount and the peak flow and the total flood amount, and establishing a linear regression mathematical expression. As shown in fig. 4, taking the zhanjia bay as an example, the zhanjia bay has a better linear relationship between the total rainfall and the peak flow, the correlation coefficient reaches 0.99, and the fitting relationship between the rainfall and the peak flow is as follows: y-0.0043 x2+5.48 x-27.34.
Forecasting the rainstorm flood, which comprises the following steps: based on the forecast product of the subjective forecast climate mode, the rainfall capacity exceeding one year meeting (rainfall capacity) in the future 24h is extracted according to the total forecast rainfall>47mm/h) rainfall fall area range; multiplying the total amount of the forecast rainfall by the rain type proportion of each unit to obtain a corrected forecast rainfall process; taking the rainfall forecasting process as the safest scene, correcting the rainfall forecasting process by utilizing the actual rainfall pattern as the worst scene, and calculating the peak flow, the total flood and the flood of each river channel node according to the rainfall characteristic parameters and combining the quantitative expression of the rainstorm and the floodFor a long time. The results show that: calculating the peak flow of Zhangjia Bay gate to be 216m according to the established rainstorm flood quantitative relation3(s) measured flow rate of 211m3The relative error is 2 percent, and the simulation effect is good; and calling the most similar waterlogging simulation scene according to the calculation result, and matching the simulation scenes in the scene library to find 69 simulated waterlogging and waterlogging points. And according to the result, issuing flood forecast information.
According to the urban drainage basin flood prediction method provided by the embodiment of the invention, the rain type space-time distribution of urban areas is determined according to historical data; establishing a flood simulation scene library by simulating parameters under different scenes of the area by utilizing a refined flood model according to the rain type space-time distribution and the river course flood boundary conditions; establishing a rainstorm flood relational expression and an inland inundation simulation relational expression based on simulation data; correcting the acquired rainfall forecast data according to the rainfall type space-time distribution, and dividing different scenes; and performing data matching on the rainstorm flood relation and the waterlogging simulation relation and different scenes, and when the matching degree is greater than preset, using the simulation data in the flood simulation scene library as the information for forecasting the flood of the urban drainage basin. The method can quickly calculate the peak flow and the total flood volume of each node in the forecast period, the positions of the ponding points, the ponding depths, the ponding duration and other information, realizes quick forecast and research and judgment of urban flood disasters, and strives for precious time for flood control and drainage emergency management.
Example 2
The embodiment of the present invention provides a system for predicting urban drainage basin flooding, as shown in fig. 5, including:
the rainfall type space-time distribution determining module 1 is used for extracting a rainfall data set of historical occasions of the urban area to be predicted, analyzing rainfall time sequence samples of rainfall stations of each occasion in preset time, and determining the rainfall type space-time distribution of the urban area; this module executes the method described in step S1 in embodiment 1, and is not described herein again.
The flood simulation scene library establishing module 2 is used for simulating flood characteristic parameters and ponding characteristic parameters of each river channel node under different scenes of the area by utilizing a refined flood model according to the rainfall type space-time distribution and the river channel flood boundary conditions, and establishing a flood simulation scene library; this module executes the method described in step S2 in embodiment 1, and is not described herein again.
The flood and waterlogging relational expression establishing module 3 is used for establishing a rainstorm flood relational expression and a waterlogging relational expression based on the simulation data of the flood simulation scene library; this module executes the method described in step S3 in embodiment 1, and is not described herein again.
The urban drainage basin flood information forecasting module 4 is used for correcting the acquired rainfall data in the rainfall forecasting process according to the rainfall type space-time distribution and dividing a safe scene and an adverse scene; respectively carrying out data matching on the rainstorm flood relational expression and the waterlogging simulation relational expression with the safety situation and the adverse situation, and when the matching degree is greater than a preset value, taking corresponding simulation data in the flood simulation scene library as information for forecasting the flood of the urban drainage basin; this module executes the method described in step S4 in embodiment 1, and is not described herein again.
The embodiment of the invention provides a prediction system of urban drainage basin flooding, which determines the rain type space-time distribution of an urban area according to historical data; establishing a flood simulation scene library by simulating parameters under different scenes of the area by utilizing a refined flood model according to the rain type space-time distribution and the river course flood boundary conditions; establishing a rainstorm flood relational expression and an inland inundation simulation relational expression based on simulation data; correcting the acquired rainfall forecast data according to the rainfall type space-time distribution, and dividing different scenes; and performing data matching on the rainstorm flood relation and the waterlogging simulation relation and different scenes, and when the matching degree is greater than preset, using the simulation data in the flood simulation scene library as the information for forecasting the flood of the urban drainage basin. The method can quickly calculate the peak flow and the total flood volume of each node in the forecast period, the positions of the ponding points, the ponding depths, the ponding duration and other information, realizes quick forecast and research and judgment of urban flood disasters, and strives for precious time for flood control and drainage emergency management.
Example 3
An embodiment of the present invention provides a terminal, as shown in fig. 6, including: at least one processor 401, such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), at least one communication interface 403, memory 404, and at least one communication bus 402. Wherein a communication bus 402 is used to enable connective communication between these components. The communication interface 403 may include a Display (Display) and a Keyboard (Keyboard), and the optional communication interface 403 may also include a standard wired interface and a standard wireless interface. The Memory 404 may be a high-speed RAM Memory (Random Access Memory) or a non-volatile Memory (non-volatile Memory), such as at least one disk Memory. The memory 404 may optionally be at least one memory device located remotely from the processor 401. Wherein the processor 401 may execute the urban drainage basin flood prediction method in embodiment 1. A set of program codes is stored in the memory 404, and the processor 401 calls the program codes stored in the memory 404 for executing the prediction method of urban river basin flooding in embodiment 1. The communication bus 402 may be a Peripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus or an Extended Industry Standard Architecture (EISA) bus. The communication bus 402 may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, and the like. For ease of illustration, only one line is shown in FIG. 6, but it is not intended that there be only one bus or one type of bus. The memory 404 may include a volatile memory (RAM), such as a random-access memory (RAM); the memory may also include a non-volatile memory (english: non-volatile memory), such as a flash memory (english: flash memory), a hard disk (english: hard disk drive, abbreviated: HDD) or a solid-state drive (english: SSD); the memory 404 may also comprise a combination of memories of the kind described above. The processor 401 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a Network Processor (NP), or a combination of a CPU and an NP.
The memory 404 may include a volatile memory (RAM), such as a random-access memory (RAM); the memory may also include a non-volatile memory (english: non-volatile memory), such as a flash memory (english: flash memory), a hard disk (english: hard disk drive, abbreviated: HDD) or a solid-state drive (english: SSD); the memory 404 may also comprise a combination of memories of the kind described above.
The processor 401 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a Network Processor (NP), or a combination of a CPU and an NP.
The processor 401 may further include a hardware chip. The hardware chip may be an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a Programmable Logic Device (PLD), or a combination thereof. The PLD may be a Complex Programmable Logic Device (CPLD), a field-programmable gate array (FPGA), a General Array Logic (GAL), or any combination thereof.
Optionally, the memory 404 is also used to store program instructions. The processor 401 may call program instructions to implement the method for predicting urban drainage basin flooding according to the embodiment 1.
An embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, where a computer-executable instruction is stored on the computer-readable storage medium, and the computer-executable instruction may execute the method for predicting urban drainage basin flooding in embodiment 1. The storage medium may be a magnetic Disk, an optical Disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a Flash Memory (Flash Memory), a Hard Disk (Hard Disk Drive, abbreviated as HDD), a Solid State Drive (SSD), or the like; the storage medium may also comprise a combination of memories of the kind described above.
It should be understood that the above examples are only for clarity of illustration and are not intended to limit the embodiments. Other variations and modifications will be apparent to persons skilled in the art in light of the above description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. And obvious variations or modifications of the invention may be made without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for predicting urban drainage basin flooding is characterized by comprising the following steps:
extracting a historical rainfall data set of the urban area to be predicted, analyzing rainfall time sequence samples of rainfall stations of each field in preset time, and determining rainfall type space-time distribution of the urban area;
simulating flood characteristic parameters and ponding characteristic parameters of each river channel node under different scenes of the area by using a refined flood model according to the rain type space-time distribution and the river channel flood boundary conditions, and establishing a flood simulation scene library;
establishing a rainstorm flood relational expression and an waterlogging simulation relational expression based on simulation data of the flood simulation scene library;
according to the rainfall type space-time distribution, the rainfall data of the rainfall forecasting process is corrected, and the safety scene and the adverse scene are divided; and respectively carrying out data matching on the rainstorm flood relational expression and the waterlogging simulation relational expression with the safety situation and the adverse situation, and when the matching degree is greater than a preset value, taking corresponding simulation data in the flood simulation situation library as the information for forecasting the flood of the urban drainage basin.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of determining the rain-type spatial-temporal distribution of the urban area comprises:
calculating the rainfall proportion of each rainfall station of each field in the preset time according to the rainfall time sequence sample of each rainfall station of each field in the urban area to be predicted in the preset time;
dividing the weather moving path of each field of the area based on a k-means algorithm; clustering analysis is carried out on the weather moving path and the rainfall proportion by using a k-means algorithm, and the rainfall types of all rainfall stations are extracted in a classified manner;
constructing a Thiessen polygon according to the positions of the rainfall stations, and dividing the rainfall type spatial distribution of the rainfall stations; and determining the rain type space-time distribution of the area based on the rain type and the rain type space distribution of each rainfall station.
3. The method for forecasting the urban watershed flooding according to claim 2, wherein the rainfall proportion of each time within the preset time is calculated by the following formula:
wherein m is the number of rainfall stations; n is the total number of rainfall fields; t is a rainfall period; x is the number ofiPresetting a time rainfall time sequence for the ith rainfall station;
is the total rainfall amount of the j-th rainfall of the ith rainfall station in the preset time,
the rainfall of the ith rainfall station in the preset time according to the t-th time period in the rainfall sequence;
presetting the total rainfall amount for the ith rainfall station at a preset time;
for presetting of the ith rainfall stationAnd (4) the rainfall proportion of the t-th time period in the interval rainfall sequence.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the predicted rainfall event is used as a safety scenario, and the predicted rainfall event after the actual rainfall pattern correction is used as an adverse scenario.
5. The method for predicting urban drainage basin flooding according to claim 1, wherein a fine flooding model is applied to simulate flood characteristic parameters and ponding characteristic parameters of each river channel node under different situations of the area, and a flooding simulation situation library is established, comprising:
according to the design of the rain type and the rainfall rain type, distinguishing the long duration scene from the short duration scene, acquiring river channel flood boundary conditions with frequency corresponding to the long duration scene and the short duration scene, applying a refined flood model for simulation, generating parameters of peak flow and total flood amount, area water point positions, water depth and water duration of all river channel rainfall stations, and constructing a flood simulation scene library.
6. The method for forecasting the flooding of urban watersheds according to claim 3, wherein the rainfall data obtained during the forecast rainfall is corrected by the following formula:
in the formula ,
the corrected rainfall for the t-th time period of the ith area; piThe total amount of rainfall forecast for the ith area;
is the rainfall proportion of the ith area in the t period.
7. The method for predicting urban watershed flooding according to claim 1, wherein the establishing of the torrent flooding relational expression and the waterlogging simulation relational expression based on simulation data of the flooding simulation scenario library comprises: establishing a linear regression mathematical expression as a rainstorm flood relational expression according to linear relations among the total flood amount, the peak flow and the peak time of different scenes; and establishing a linear regression mathematical expression as an inland inundation simulation relational expression according to the linear relation among the depth of the ponding, the duration of the ponding and the range of the ponding in different scenes.
8. A prediction system for urban drainage basin flooding, comprising:
the rainfall type space-time distribution determining module is used for extracting a rainfall data set of historical scenes of the urban area to be predicted, analyzing rainfall time sequence samples of each scene of each rainfall station in preset time, and determining the rainfall type space-time distribution of the urban area;
the flood simulation scene library establishing module is used for simulating flood characteristic parameters and ponding characteristic parameters of each river channel node under different scenes of the area by utilizing a refined flood model according to the rainfall type space-time distribution and the river channel flood boundary conditions, and establishing a flood simulation scene library;
the flood and waterlogging relational expression establishing module is used for establishing a rainstorm flood relational expression and a waterlogging relational expression based on the simulation data of the flood simulation scene library;
the urban drainage basin flood information forecasting module is used for correcting the acquired rainfall data in the rainfall forecasting process according to the rainfall type space-time distribution and dividing safety scenes and adverse scenes; and respectively carrying out data matching on the rainstorm flood relational expression and the waterlogging simulation relational expression with the safety situation and the adverse situation, and when the matching degree is greater than a preset value, taking corresponding simulation data in the flood simulation situation library as the information for forecasting the flood of the urban drainage basin.
9. A terminal, comprising: at least one processor, and a memory communicatively coupled to the at least one processor, wherein the memory stores instructions executable by the at least one processor to cause the at least one processor to perform the method of urban river flood prediction according to any of claims 1-7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions for causing a computer to perform the method for forecasting urban watershed flooding according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
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