CN112766816A - Activity security risk assessment method, system and equipment - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides an activity safety risk assessment management method, which comprises the following steps: a risk identification step; a risk analysis step; and a risk evaluation step; wherein the risk analysis step further comprises the steps of: executing multi-level layering according to the property of the risk factors to form a risk factor classification subset of each level; determining single risk evaluation indexes and weights thereof in the risk factor classification subsets of each level; wherein the risk assessment step further comprises the steps of: determining the risk value of each layered single risk factor classification subset; performing a total risk score calculation; and performing a safety risk rating based on the total risk score.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of computers, in particular to an activity safety risk assessment method, system and equipment.
Background
Security risk assessment is the core and key to security management for large activities. The method is a process of utilizing qualitative and quantitative methods (including various mathematical principles, models and risk databases), comprehensively and widely collecting hazard factors which may cause various large-scale activity dangers or safety case events (accidents) through multiple channels, identifying various potential threats, weaknesses and loopholes in advance, evaluating the risk category grade and the influence which may be caused, early warning and preparing for hazard consequences, making coping safety strategies and solutions, and providing scientific basis for avoiding, adjusting risks and managing decisions.
The risk assessment of the safety of large-scale activities is a very mature business in foreign countries, particularly developed countries, the official large-scale activities are generally carried out by police, the civil large-scale activities are generally operated by professional security companies, and the risk assessment is already listed as a high-end security service item in the operating range of foreign security companies. The time for introducing risk assessment in large-scale activities in China is still short, although some theoretical research achievements and working experiences are accumulated preliminarily, the risk assessment is still carried out in a research stage by public security organs mainly aiming at minor influential major official activities (such as Olympic games, world exposition and Advance exposition); and for large-scale public sexual activity risk assessment, the method is lack of standardization, the methods are different in all places, and the market is more disordered. Meanwhile, the risk assessment practitioner has the problems of lack of theoretical knowledge, single assessment method, hard template set and the like in the actual operation process. The safety management regulations for sexual activities of large masses do not specify the subject of risk assessment of large activities, nor specify whether the conditions are necessary for declaration. At present, the safety risk assessment of large-scale activities mainly adopts a subjective qualitative assessment method, has high randomness, lacks a quantitative safety risk assessment method and an intelligent and automatic calculation, processing and management system and equipment, and influences the scientific continuous development of the business to a certain extent.
Disclosure of Invention
One of the objectives of the present invention is to provide an activity security risk assessment method, system and device, which can perform large-scale activity security risk identification more conveniently at a mobile terminal and a computer terminal, scientifically apply mathematical principles and model systems to efficiently perform quantitative risk analysis and risk assessment, automatically calculate and assess risk types and grades faced by assessment, automatically match risk management and control strategies and security solutions, and implement real-time management on the whole process of activity security risk assessment work even in the absence of a historical risk database, thereby improving the informatization, intellectualization and precision levels of large-scale activity security risk assessment work.
In order to achieve at least one of the objects of the present invention, the present invention provides an activity security risk assessment method including the steps of:
a risk identification step;
a risk analysis step; and
a risk evaluation step;
wherein the risk analysis step further comprises the steps of: executing multi-level layering according to the property of the risk factors to form a risk factor classification subset of each level; determining single risk evaluation indexes and weights thereof in the risk factor classification subsets of each level;
wherein the risk assessment step further comprises the steps of: determining the risk value of each layered single risk factor classification subset; performing a total risk score calculation; and performing a safety risk rating based on the total risk score.
In some embodiments, the fuzzy hierarchical analysis model is established to process and calculate the weight of the single risk evaluation index in each level risk factor classification subset.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps:
comparing every two single evaluation indexes in each risk factor classification subset by a plurality of experts and constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix by using triangular fuzzy numbers; and
and carrying out pairwise importance comparison on any two single evaluation indexes in each risk factor classification subset, assigning values and feeding back the values to an evaluation interface.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps: and establishing a triangular fuzzy number model to represent pairwise judgment matrixes, establishing a triangular fuzzy number operation model and a comparison least square method model, and obtaining a sequencing result of the single evaluation index.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps: and performing consistency check on the constructed fuzzy judgment matrix.
In some embodiments, the step of calculating the RI value of the random consistency index and the formula are performed as follows:
constructing 1000 n-order random forward and inverse matrix models;
calculating the average value k of the maximum eigenvalues of 1000 matrixes;
RI＝(k-n)/(n-1)。
in some embodiments, the hierarchical analysis structure model is established to process and calculate the weight of the single risk evaluation index in each level risk factor classification subset.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps: analyzing and establishing a hierarchical analysis structure model, and executing the ranking of the importance degree of the related evaluation indexes of each hierarchy.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps:
for the sequencing in each layer, executing the judgment of pairwise comparison of a series of single evaluation indexes, and quantizing each judgment according to the ratio scale to form a judgment matrix; and
and a step of calculating the single-level ordering, namely calculating the eigenvector of the judgment matrix and the corresponding maximum eigenvalue, so as to calculate the weight value of the relative importance of each level factor relative to one factor in the previous level.
In some embodiments, the step of calculating the hierarchical order further comprises the steps of: and constructing a feature vector method calculation model to solve a feature equation to obtain a feature vector and a corresponding maximum feature value thereof.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps: and calculating the relative weight of the single evaluation index, and performing consistency check.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps: calculating each individual risk value by the following formula: risk measure is risk probability x risk severity x weight.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps:
calculating a total risk amount, wherein the total risk amount is equal to the product of the risk amount of each classification subset and the weight thereof, and then summing the products,
firstly, calculating the actual risk quantity of each index in the subset, namely the product of each index evaluation value and the index in the subset weight, and then summing the actual risk quantities of all the indexes in the subset to obtain the actual risk quantity of the subset; secondly, respectively calculating the maximum value and the minimum value of each index risk quantity of the subset, namely the product of the possible maximum value and the possible minimum value of each index and the index in the subset weight, and then respectively summing the maximum value and the minimum value of all index risk quantities of the subset to obtain the maximum value and the minimum value of the risk quantity of the subset; thirdly, dividing the difference between the actual risk amount and the minimum risk amount of the subset by the difference between the maximum risk amount and the minimum risk amount of the subset, and finally multiplying by 100 to obtain a risk amount value between 0 and 100.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps:
when the total risk value is 80-100, the activity risk level is rated as extremely high risk;
when the total risk value is between 60 and 80 and does not contain 80, the activity risk level is evaluated as high risk;
when the total risk value is between 31 and 60 and does not contain 60, the activity risk level is rated as medium risk; and
when the total risk value is between 0 and 30 and does not contain 30, the activity risk rating is low risk.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps: importing and deleting each risk classification subset table data; performing expert quantity expansion and assignment; performing a subset number expansion and performing each subset index expansion; and deriving each subset evaluation score, three single indexes with highest risk, a total score, a final risk grade and a risk evaluation report in the grade evaluation.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps: and carrying out on-site survey on each single evaluation index to acquire data and simultaneously carrying out safety inspection.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps: the substitution verification step of the data and the step of manually calculating the checking accuracy.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps: and feeding back risk control countermeasures.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps: matching a risk control scheme database according to the subset with higher risk and the single index; and feeding back a risk management and control suggestion in the assessment report according to the assessment grade.
In some embodiments, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises an environment establishing step and a risk disposing step.
In some embodiments, the risk factors include participant risk factors, activity environment risk factors, equipment, facility, and item risk factors, security management action risk factors, and special event risk factors.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is also provided a computer readable storage medium, having stored thereon a computer program, which, when being executed by a processor, performs the steps of the activity security risk assessment method.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is also provided an active security risk assessment apparatus including:
a memory for storing a software application,
a processor for executing the software application,
wherein each program of the software application correspondingly performs the steps of the activity security risk assessment method of claim.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is also provided an activity security risk assessment system including:
an account management subsystem, a third party institution management subsystem, an operator management subsystem, an expert management subsystem, a basic data management subsystem, a risk control measure database and a field security reconnaissance management subsystem,
wherein the expert management subsystem includes an additional expert management unit, a modification expert management unit, and a deletion expert management unit, the additional expert management unit configured to: acquiring and storing personal information data of an expert in an expert information database, the modified expert management unit being configured to: acquiring and modifying personal information data of an expert, the delete expert management unit being configured to: deleting personal information data of an expert;
wherein the third party organization management subsystem comprises an additional organization management unit, a modification organization management unit and a deletion organization management unit, the additional organization management unit is configured to: receiving and storing third party organization information data to a third party organization information database, the modification organization management unit being configured to: acquiring and modifying third party organization information data, the deletion organization management unit being configured to: deleting the third party organization information data;
the third-party organization management subsystem further comprises a task management unit, wherein the task management unit comprises a newly added task module, a task modification module and a task deletion module, and the newly added task module is configured as follows: obtain and store task information data to a task information database, the modify task module configured to: modifying task information data, the delete task module configured to: deleting the task information data;
wherein the operator management subsystem comprises a task audit management unit and an expert allocation management unit, the task audit management unit is configured to: receiving and processing a task auditing instruction, responding to the information of a system interface and the received accessory information, and feeding back corresponding auditing opinion information and information whether the task passes or not; the expert allocation management unit is configured to: receiving a task auditing pass instruction, acquiring and matching task information, and executing expert allocation;
wherein the site safety reconnaissance management subsystem is configured to: acquiring and processing task information to be surveyed, and feeding back risk index information;
the basic data management subsystem is provided with a risk index management unit, the risk index management unit comprises a newly-added risk index module, a risk index modification module, a risk index deletion module, a specific risk index setting module and an evaluation basis setting module, and the newly-added risk index module is configured to: obtaining and storing risk indicator information to the risk control measure database, the modify risk indicator module configured to: modifying risk indicator information, the delete risk indicator module deleting risk indicator information, the set specific risk indicator module configured to: storing and setting specific risk index information, wherein the setting evaluation basis module is configured to: and setting evaluation basis information corresponding to the specific risk index information in the specific risk index setting module.
In some embodiments, the risk index management unit of the basic data management subsystem transmits the set specific risk index information and corresponding evaluation basis information to the site safety survey management subsystem, so that a survey crew can perform site survey by the information displayed by the site safety survey management subsystem.
In some embodiments, the activity safety risk assessment system further comprises a system management subsystem, the expert management subsystem is further provided with an index weight calculation unit, the site safety survey management subsystem acquires site survey data information corresponding to the approved task, and the system management subsystem automatically calculates the score obtained by the task based on the site survey data information.
In some embodiments, the index weight unit of the expert management subsystem obtains the index weights after the experts compare with each other and score and evaluate the scores and calculate the index weights through a model algorithm, and feeds the index weights back to the system management subsystem, and the system management subsystem obtains and summarizes the evaluation information of each expert and generates and feeds back an activity safety risk evaluation report.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of steps of a method for active security risk assessment according to one embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2A to 2F are schematic diagrams of the activity security risk assessment method according to the above embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of the activity security risk assessment method according to the above embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of the activity security risk assessment method according to the above embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of the activity security risk assessment method according to the above embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 6A to 6C are schematic diagrams of the activity security risk assessment method according to the above embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 7A to 7B are schematic diagrams of the activity security risk assessment method according to the above embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 8A to 8D are schematic diagrams of the activity security risk assessment method according to the above embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 9A-9T are schematic diagrams of an active security risk assessment system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 10A to 10D are schematic views of the activity security risk assessment system according to the above-described embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description is presented to disclose the invention so as to enable any person skilled in the art to practice the invention. The preferred embodiments in the following description are given by way of example only, and other obvious variations will occur to those skilled in the art. The basic principles of the invention, as defined in the following description, may be applied to other embodiments, variations, modifications, equivalents, and other technical solutions without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
It is understood that the terms "a" and "an" should be interpreted as meaning that a number of one element or element is one in one embodiment, while a number of other elements is one in another embodiment, and the terms "a" and "an" should not be interpreted as limiting the number.
The present invention relates to a computer program. Fig. 1 is a flow chart of an activity safety risk assessment method according to the present invention, which illustrates a solution for controlling or processing an external object or an internal object of a computer by executing a computer program prepared according to the above flow on the basis of a computer program processing flow to solve the problems of the present invention. By the activity safety risk assessment method, various mathematical models, principles, methods and risk databases can be utilized by a computer system, various potential threats and weaknesses of large-scale activities can be identified in advance through comprehensive and multi-channel wide collection of dangerous and harmful factors which can cause various large-scale activity emergencies, the grades of the risk types faced by the activities are assessed, early warning is carried out on dangerous consequences, coping strategies and safety solutions are made, assessment efficiency, accuracy, automation degree and universality are improved, scientific basis is provided for safety management decisions, and it can be understood that the computer not only refers to equipment such as a desktop computer, a notebook computer, a tablet computer and the like, but also comprises other intelligent electronic equipment which can operate according to programs and process data.
As shown in fig. 1, a preferred embodiment of the activity security risk assessment method according to the present invention includes the following steps:
s0: establishing an environment;
s1: a risk identification step;
s2: a risk analysis step;
s3: a risk evaluation step; and
s9: and (5) risk disposal step.
Wherein the risk analysis step S2 includes the steps of:
s21: executing multi-level layering according to the property of the risk factors to form a risk factor classification subset of each level;
s22: determining the weight of a single risk evaluation index in each level risk factor classification subset;
it is worth mentioning that the risk factors include participant risk factors, activity environment risk factors, equipment, facility and goods risk factors, security management measures risk factors, and special event risk factors.
Each risk factor classification subset in step S21 contains several individual indexes, i.e., items with single property and single function related to security evaluation, and may contain several inspection contents.
Further, in step S22, a fuzzy hierarchical analysis model is established to process and calculate the weight of the single risk evaluation index in each level risk factor classification subset.
It can be understood by those skilled in the art that, in the fuzzy hierarchical analysis model, the weight of each single evaluation index is determined by using a fuzzy hierarchical analysis method, because in the weight determination process, factors influencing the weight have subjective factors such as the knowledge structure, the judgment level and the personal preference of experts, and the factors have ambiguity and cannot be measured by using an accurate scale, and fuzzy mathematics can reflect the degree of fuzzy relation by using the membership. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is a theoretical process which combines fuzzy theory and traditional analytic hierarchy process and fully considers the thinking ambiguity of people. In order to make decision more reasonable and better reflect the ambiguity of human judgment, the triangle fuzzy number shown in fig. 2A and fig. 2B is adopted to represent two-by-two judgment matrixes, and the operation of the triangle fuzzy number and the comparison least square method are used to obtain the sequencing of elements, so that the AHP is expanded to be a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) which can be used in a fuzzy environment.
It should be noted that, in step S22, establishing a fuzzy hierarchical analysis model to process and calculate the weight of the single risk evaluation index in each first-level risk factor classification subset, the method further includes the following steps:
s221: comparing every two single evaluation indexes and objects in each risk factor classification subset by T experts and constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix by triangular fuzzy numbers; and
s222: any two individual evaluation indexes in each risk factor classification subset are subjected to pairwise importance comparison and fed back to the evaluation interface, for example, the fed back content of the evaluation page is the importance degree of R4 'number of participants' in the participant classification compared with R5 'participant source'.
It is to be appreciated that, in a particular embodiment, FIG. 2C illustrates a triangle fuzzy variable language in step S22. The fuzzy judgment matrix is a generalization of the AHP judgment matrix and is composed of triangular fuzzy numbers, as shown in fig. 2C. More specifically, in a specific embodiment, the corresponding integrated fuzzy judgment matrix can be calculated according to the formula (4.8) in fig. 2D, see table 4.1 in fig. 2E and table 4.2 in fig. 2F, and further, U is calculated according to the formula (4.7) in fig. 2B1The integrated importance degree value of each secondary index relative to other secondary indexes. Further, U is calculated according to the formula (4.9) in FIG. 2D1Each secondary indicator is more important than the degree of likelihood of the other secondary indicators.
It should be noted that step S22 further includes the following steps:
s223: and performing consistency check on the constructed fuzzy judgment matrix.
Since the construction of the judgment matrix may have subjectivity, the judgment result may be inconsistent, and when the inconsistency exceeds a certain range, the judgment result is considered to be unreliable, so that the consistency check in step S223 is required, and the calculation formula is shown in fig. 3.
It is understood that, in a specific embodiment, for the constructed fuzzy judgment matrix a, the calculation step of the "random consistency index" RI value and the formula are performed as follows:
constructing 1000 n-order random positive and negative matrixes A' (elements 0-9 and the reciprocal thereof);
calculating the average value k of the maximum eigenvalues of 1000 matrixes;
RI is calculated as (k-n)/(n-1).
Further, with the activity security risk assessment method of the present invention, fig. 4 shows the weights of the individual risk assessment indicators in the classified subsets of risk factors of each level determined and fed back by the execution of step S22 in the specific embodiment.
Further, in step S22 of the activity safety risk assessment method of the present invention, a hierarchical analysis structure model is established to process and calculate the weight of the single risk evaluation index in each level-one risk factor classification subset. The determination of the evaluation index system is a process of constructing average factors of hierarchical levels, and as security risks affecting the sexual activities of the large masses are numerous and are mostly described conceptually (for example, the influence of natural disasters on the security of the sexual activities of the large masses), specific indexes for measurement must be provided for measurement in order to be measured, analyzed and researched. In a specific embodiment, the established security risk indicator system for the large-scale public activities is shown in fig. 5, and the evaluation factors are divided into four levels: 1 target layer (O), 4 layer factors (A)1～A4) 10 tertiary factors (B)1～B10) 27 quaternary factors (C)1～C27)。
More specifically, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps:
s224: analyzing and establishing a hierarchical analysis structure model, and executing the ranking of the importance degree of the related evaluation indexes of each hierarchy.
More specifically, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps:
s2241: for the sequencing in each layer, executing a series of pairwise comparison judgments of the paired factors, and quantizing the judgments according to the ratio scale to form a judgment matrix;
s2242: a step of calculating the hierarchical single sequence, namely calculating the eigenvector of the judgment matrix and the corresponding maximum eigenvalue; and
s2243: and a step of total hierarchical sorting, which is to calculate layer by layer from top to bottom along the stair structure in sequence.
It should be noted that, in the step of calculating the hierarchical list ranking in step S2242, the method further includes step S22421: and constructing a feature vector method calculation model to solve a feature equation to obtain a feature vector and a corresponding maximum feature value thereof.
It is understood that, in step S22421, the general ones areThe calculation method is a square root method, and the calculation program is as follows: (1) calculating the continuous product M of each row of elements of the judgment matrix BiNamely:
(2) calculating MiThe n-th root, i.e.:
(3) will vector
Normalization, i.e.:
then obtain the vector
W＝(w1,w2,…,wn)T (7.5)
Is the eigenvector of matrix B.
(4) Calculating the corresponding maximum eigenvalue lambdamaxComprises the following steps:
wherein (BW)iIs the ith component of the matrix multiplication BW.
The calculation process of the total hierarchical ranking weight is carried out layer by layer from the highest layer value to the lowest layer. The total sorting weight of the factors in the layer is equal to the sorting weight of the factors in the layer, and the total sorting weight of the factors in the layer is the weighted average value of the single sorting of the factors in the layer with the total sorting weight of the factors in the layer as the weight, namely the combined weight.
Let the upper level factor be A1，A2，...，AmThe known total sort weights are respectively alpha1，α2，...，αmAnd is and
the factors of the lower layer are also known as B1，B2，...，BnCorresponding to the upper level factor A1，A2，...，AmLower layer factor B of1，B2，...，BnThe single rank weights are respectively
And is
Thus, the lower sub-factor BjThe total sort weight is:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is the lower sub-factor BiCorresponding to the upper level factor AiThe single rank weight of (2). If factor Bi
And factor AiIndependently, then get
It is worth mentioning that in step S2241, when two-by-two comparison determination matrices are constructed, the evaluator should repeatedly handle the problem: two factors AiAnd AjWhich is more important, how much more important, and how much more important needs to be given a certain number, a scale (scale) of 1-9 is used, as shown in fig. 6A. Wherein, for a more or less secondary assigned value,as shown in fig. 6B. The decision maker compares the importance of each factor to obtain the result shown in FIG. 6C and the comparison matrix A.
Wherein the matrix
The properties of (A) are as follows:
1.aij＞0
2.aii＝1
3.
it will be appreciated that the 1-9 scale method is one method of quantifying the thought judgment. First, in distinguishing material differences, one always subdivides further with the same, stronger, strong, very strong, and extremely strong language, possibly inserting a compromise proposition between two adjacent poles, so a scale of 1-9 is appropriate for most evaluation judgments. Secondly, psychological practices show that: the resolving power of most people on the same attribute of different objects is between 5 and 9 levels, and the judgment of most people can be reflected by adopting the scale of 1 to 9 levels.
More specifically, the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the following steps:
s2244: the relative weights of the factors are calculated and a consistency check is performed.
In particular, for A1，A2，...，AnAnd comparing every two to obtain a judgment matrix A and solving a matrix characteristic root. Computing weight vectors and feature roots λmaxThe methods of (1) include the sum and product method, the square root method and the root method. Preferably, a sum-product method which is simple and convenient to calculate is adopted, and the specific calculation steps are as follows:
normalizing A by column, i.e. normalizing each column of the judgment matrix A
Then adding the sum vector according to the rows
Normalizing the obtained sum vector to obtain a weight vector
Computing the maximum characteristic root λ of the matrixmax
Since the judgment matrix is normalized by columns, the sum of each column is 1, and the sum of all elements in the judgment matrix is approximately equal to n (the number of rows and columns), the steps of the second step and the third step can be simplified into row average calculation.
In the presence of a catalyst to obtain lambdamaxThen, consistency check is needed to keep consistency of thought and logic of multi-factor evaluation by an evaluator, so that the evaluation is coordinated and consistent without internal contradictory results, which is a necessary condition for ensuring reliability of evaluation conclusion. When they are completely consistent, the following transfer relationship should exist:
aik＝aijajk (i，j，k＝1，2，…n) (7.13)
otherwise, it is inconsistent. When the two are judged to be completely consistent, λ should be presentmaxN, the remaining characteristic roots are all zero. The consistency index c.i. is:
when consistent, c.i. ═ 0; when not uniform, λ is generallymax>n, and thus, c.i.>0。
Wherein the average random consistency index c.r. is shown in the following table:
average random consistency index c.r.
| |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| RI | 0.58 | 0.9 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1.49 | 1.51 |
Wherein, satisfy
(C.I.)/(C.R.)<0.1 (7.15)
Specifically, in the embodiment of the present invention, for example, taking the security risk assessment of a large exposition as an example, for the second layer factor: environmental factor B1, human factor B2, facility B3, and management factor B4, the judgment matrix shown in fig. 7A is constructed. Considering that the expo is held in autumn and the weather conditions at the place of holding is stable, so the latter is slightly more important than the human factor, it is noted 1/2 at the intersection of the first row and the second column and 2 at the intersection of the second row and the first column. In addition, 1 is written in each of the first row, the second row, the third column, the fourth row, the fourth column, and the fifth row, so that an evaluation index weight list can be prepared, as shown in fig. 7A.
Further, in this embodiment, the inter-hierarchy sorting is to calculate a maximum value of each judgment positive and negative matrix and a feature vector corresponding to the maximum value, obtain a sorting value inside each hierarchy, obtain an importance data sequence of the index layer to the target layer, and obtain a final result. The consistency positive reciprocal matrix B corresponds to a normalized eigenvector ω ═ of (ω) the eigenvalue n1，ω2，…，ωn)，(∑ωi1) is reflecting n factors y ═ y1，y2，y3，…，ynThe proportion of the target z is called the factor Y ═ Y1，y2，y3，…，ynThe weight vector to the target. The method comprises the following steps: solving the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the judgment matrix BmaxReuse of the formula
Bω＝λmaxω (7.16)
Solving the eigenvector omega corresponding to lambda, and obtaining the required sorting weight value of a certain level relative to the upper level after normalization, as shown in fig. 7B. Wherein CI is 0.072, RI is 0.9, CR is 0.0080<0.1, by identity test.
According to the above calculation process, the weight of the second layer factor can be obtained, and the weights can be determined by the same method for the third and fourth layer factors. The weight selection is premised on large activities such as expo. In other variant embodiments, different weight analysis results may occur for other types of large social activities, but the analysis methods are the same.
Further, in the step S3 of the activity safety risk assessment method, the risk evaluation method further includes the following steps:
s31: determining the risk value of each layered single risk factor classification subset;
s32: performing a total risk score calculation; and
s33: and performing safety risk rating according to the total risk score.
Wherein, step S31 further includes the following steps:
s311: calculating each individual risk value by the following formula: risk measure is risk probability x risk severity x weight.
In a specific embodiment, the Risk measure is Risk probability × Risk severity × weight, i.e., Risk is V × L × Xn%. And designing an interface for evaluating each single evaluation index in each subset, wherein each index has one interface, activating the next button after filling, and simultaneously displaying the button for returning to the previous button. For example: r4 "number of participants" within the category of participant (one) gives a scoring value of 0-9 (which may be accurate one digit after the decimal point) for risk severity and a scoring value of 0-9 (which may be accurate one digit after the decimal point) for probability of occurrence, automatically displays the product results and requires filling in the maximum and minimum values. Preferably, the feedback evaluation interface is an interface mode of a digital scale slide bar and a manual filling number.
S312: calculating a risk quantity R for each classification subset(N): take R (one) as an example
For example, R (one) ═ R1×X1％+R2×X2％+.....R14×X14% and X represents the weight of each sub-item of R (one)
R (two) ═ R1×Y1％+R2×Y2％+.....R15×Y15% and Y represents the weight of each sub-item of R (II);
s313: calculate each class subset R (N)maxThe value: take R (one) as an example
R1max＝R1max×X1％+R2max×X2％+.....R14max×X14％；
S314: calculate each class subset R (N)minThe value: take R (one) as an example
R1min＝R1min×X1％+R2min×X2％+.....R14min×X14％；
S315: calculate each classification subset risk measure r (n) r: take R (one) as an example
S316: calculating a total risk amount, wherein the total risk amount is the sum of each classification subset risk amount r (n) r multiplied by the weighted ratio.
In a specific embodiment, the total risk amount is [ R (one) participant × 15% + R (two) event environment × 15% + R (three) equipment facilities and item × 20% + R (four) security management measures × 20% + R (five) qualification review × 15% + R (six) special event × 15% ] × 100%.
Wherein, step S33 further includes the following steps:
s331: when the total risk value is 80-100, the activity risk level is rated as extremely high risk;
s332: when the total risk value is between 60 and 80 and does not contain 80, the activity risk level is evaluated as high risk;
s333: when the total risk value is between 31 and 60 and does not contain 60, the activity risk level is rated as medium risk; and
s334: when the total risk value is between 0 and 30 and does not contain 30, the activity risk rating is low risk.
It can be understood that in each step of the activity safety risk assessment method, the operation process can be automatically calculated by establishing a mathematical model, and the model can support the user-defined import and deletion of each risk classification subset table data; and the method supports expert quantity expansion, subset quantity expansion and customization and expansion of each subset index.
In the ranking evaluation of step S33, the risk assessment score of each subset, the three highest risk individual indicators, the total score, and the final ranking can be derived.
It is worth mentioning that the activity security risk assessment method of the present invention further includes the following steps:
s6: and carrying out on-site survey on each single evaluation index to acquire data and carrying out safety inspection.
It is worth mentioning that the activity security risk assessment method of the present invention further includes the following steps:
s7: the substitution verification step of the data and the step of manually calculating the checking accuracy.
It is worth mentioning that the activity security risk assessment method of the present invention further includes the following steps:
s8: and feeding back risk control countermeasures.
Wherein, step S8 further includes the following steps:
s81: matching a risk control scheme database according to the subset with higher risk and the single index;
s82: and feeding back an artificial risk control suggestion according to the evaluation grade.
Fig. 8A to 8D are schematic views illustrating a display situation of an activity security risk assessment system using the activity security risk assessment method of the present invention in a system foreground.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the methods of the present invention can be implemented in hardware, software, or a combination of hardware and software. The present invention can be realized in a centralized fashion in at least one computer system, or in a distributed fashion where different elements are spread across several interconnected computer systems. Any kind of computer system or other apparatus adapted for carrying out the methods described herein is suited. A typical combination of hardware and software could be a general purpose computer system with a computer program that, when being loaded and executed, controls the computer system such that it carries out the methods described herein.
In correspondence with the activity security risk assessment method of the present invention, according to another aspect of the present invention, there is also provided an activity security risk assessment apparatus including: a software application, a memory for storing the software application, and a processor for executing the software application. The software application programs can correspondingly execute the steps of the activity security risk assessment method.
A typical combination of hardware and software could be a general purpose computer system with a computer program that, when being loaded and executed, controls the computer system such that it carries out the methods described herein.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the activity security risk assessment device may be embodied as a desktop computer, a notebook, a mobile intelligent device, etc., but the foregoing is merely exemplary and includes other intelligent analysis devices loaded with the software application of the present invention.
The activity security risk assessment method of the present invention may be embedded in a computer program product, which comprises all the features enabling the implementation of the methods described herein. The computer program product is embodied in one or more computer-readable storage media having computer-readable program code embodied therein. According to another aspect of the invention, there is also provided a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program capable, when executed by a processor, of performing the steps of the method of the invention. Computer storage media is media in computer memory for storage of some discrete physical quantity. Computer storage media includes, but is not limited to, semiconductors, magnetic disk storage, magnetic cores, magnetic drums, magnetic tape, laser disks, and the like. It will be appreciated by persons skilled in the art that computer storage media are not limited by the foregoing examples, which are intended to be illustrative only and not limiting of the invention.
In accordance with another aspect of the present invention, there is also provided an activity security risk assessment system corresponding to an embodiment of the method of the present invention, the activity security risk assessment system is an application of the activity security risk assessment method of the present invention to computer program improvement. Fig. 9A-9T illustrate one embodiment of the activity security risk assessment system.
Specifically, the activity security risk assessment system comprises an account management subsystem, a third-party institution management subsystem, an operator management subsystem, an expert management subsystem, a basic data management subsystem, a risk control measure database and a system management subsystem.
The expert management subsystem comprises an additional expert management unit, a modification expert management unit and a deletion expert management unit. The newly-added expert management unit acquires and stores personal information data of experts, such as names, login accounts, ages, sexes, communication information, titles and the like, in an expert information database. The expert modifying management unit acquires and modifies the personal information data of the experts, and the expert deleting management unit deletes the personal information data of the experts.
The third-party organization management subsystem comprises a newly added organization management unit, a modified organization management unit and a deleted organization management unit. The newly-added organization management unit receives and stores third-party organization information data to a third-party organization information database, such as organization names, organization responsible persons, communication information, input time, organization establishment dates and the like.
The third-party organization management subsystem further comprises a task management unit, and the task management unit comprises a newly-added task module, a task modification module and a task deletion module. And the newly added task module acquires and stores task information data to a task information database, such as task title, location, time information, activity type information and the like. The task modification module modifies the task information data, and the task deletion module deletes the task information data.
The operator management subsystem comprises a task auditing management unit and an expert distribution management unit. And the task auditing management unit receives and processes the task auditing instruction, responds to the information of the system interface and the received accessory information, and feeds back corresponding auditing opinion information and information whether the task passes the feedback. And the expert allocation management unit receives the task auditing pass instruction, acquires and matches task information and executes expert allocation.
And the on-site safety reconnaissance management subsystem acquires and processes the information of the task to be reconnaissance and feeds back the information of the risk points.
The basic data management subsystem is provided with a risk index management unit, the risk index management unit comprises a newly-added risk index module, a risk index modification module, a risk index deletion module, a specific risk index setting module and an evaluation basis setting module, and the newly-added risk index module is configured to: obtaining and storing risk indicator information to the risk control measure database, the modify risk indicator module configured to: modifying risk indicator information, the delete risk indicator module deleting risk indicator information, the set specific risk indicator module configured to: storing and setting specific risk index information, wherein the setting evaluation basis module is configured to: and setting evaluation basis information corresponding to the specific risk index information in the specific risk index setting module.
The risk point management unit of the basic data management subsystem sends the set specific risk point information and the corresponding evaluation basis information to the site safety survey management subsystem, so that a survey person can carry out site survey through the information displayed by the site safety survey management subsystem.
The expert management subsystem further comprises an index weight calculation unit, the site safety survey management subsystem obtains site survey data information corresponding to the approved task, and the system management subsystem automatically calculates the score obtained by the task based on the site survey data information.
And the index weight calculation unit of the expert management subsystem acquires the index weights after the expert compares two by two and scores and evaluates and is calculated by a model algorithm, and feeds the index weights back to the system management subsystem. And the system management subsystem acquires and summarizes the evaluation information of each expert, and generates and feeds back an activity safety risk evaluation report.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the present invention has been described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, systems and computer program products according to the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks.
It will be appreciated by persons skilled in the art that the embodiments of the invention described above and shown in the drawings are given by way of example only and are not limiting of the invention. The objects of the invention have been fully and effectively accomplished. The functional and structural principles of the present invention have been shown and described in the examples, and any variations or modifications of the embodiments of the present invention may be made without departing from the principles.
Claims (27)
1. An activity security risk assessment method, characterized in that the activity security risk assessment method comprises the steps of:
a risk identification step;
a risk analysis step; and
a risk evaluation step;
wherein the risk analysis step further comprises the steps of: executing multi-level layering according to the property of the risk factors to form a risk factor classification subset of each level; determining single risk evaluation indexes and weights thereof in the risk factor classification subsets of each level;
wherein the risk assessment step further comprises the steps of: determining the risk value of each layered single risk factor classification subset; performing a total risk score calculation; and performing a safety risk rating based on the total risk score.
2. The activity security risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein a fuzzy hierarchical analysis model is established to process and calculate the weight of the individual risk assessment indicators within each of the first-level risk factor classification subsets.
3. The activity security risk assessment method of claim 2, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of:
comparing every two single evaluation indexes in each risk factor classification subset by a plurality of experts and constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix by using triangular fuzzy numbers; and
and carrying out pairwise importance comparison on any two single evaluation indexes in each risk factor classification subset, assigning values and feeding back the values to an evaluation interface.
4. The activity security risk assessment method of claim 3, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of: and establishing a triangular fuzzy number model to represent pairwise judgment matrixes, establishing a triangular fuzzy number operation model and a comparison least square method model, and obtaining a sequencing result of the single evaluation index.
5. The activity security risk assessment method of claim 3, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of: and performing consistency check on the constructed fuzzy judgment matrix.
6. The activity security risk assessment method of claim 5, wherein the step of calculating the RI value of the random consistency index and the formula are performed as follows:
constructing 1000 n-order random forward and inverse matrix models;
calculating the average value k of the maximum eigenvalues of 1000 matrixes;
RI＝(k-n)/(n-1)。
7. the activity security risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein a hierarchical analysis structure model is established to process and calculate the weight of the individual risk assessment indicators within each of the first-level risk factor classification subsets.
8. The activity security risk assessment method of claim 1, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of: analyzing and establishing a hierarchical analysis structure model, and executing the ranking of the importance degree of the related evaluation indexes of each hierarchy.
9. The activity security risk assessment method of claim 8, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of:
for the sequencing in each layer, executing the judgment of pairwise comparison of a series of single evaluation indexes, and quantizing each judgment according to the ratio scale to form a judgment matrix; and
and a step of calculating the single-level ordering, namely calculating the eigenvector of the judgment matrix and the corresponding maximum eigenvalue, so as to calculate the weight value of the relative importance of each level factor relative to one factor in the previous level.
10. The activity security risk assessment method of claim 9, wherein the step of calculating the hierarchical ranking further comprises the steps of: and constructing a feature vector method calculation model to solve a feature equation to obtain a feature vector and a corresponding maximum feature value thereof.
11. The activity security risk assessment method of claim 9, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of: and calculating the relative weight of the single evaluation index, and performing consistency check.
12. The activity security risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of: calculating each individual risk value by the following formula: risk measure is risk probability x risk severity x weight.
13. The activity security risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of:
calculating a total risk amount, wherein the total risk amount is equal to the product of the risk amount of each classification subset and the weight thereof, and then summing the products,
firstly, calculating the actual risk quantity of each index in the subset, namely the product of each index evaluation value and the index in the subset weight, and then summing the actual risk quantities of all the indexes in the subset to obtain the actual risk quantity of the subset; secondly, respectively calculating the maximum value and the minimum value of each index risk quantity of the subset, namely the product of the possible maximum value and the possible minimum value of each index and the index in the subset weight, and then respectively summing the maximum value and the minimum value of all index risk quantities of the subset to obtain the maximum value and the minimum value of the risk quantity of the subset; thirdly, dividing the difference between the actual risk amount and the minimum risk amount of the subset by the difference between the maximum risk amount and the minimum risk amount of the subset, and finally multiplying by 100 to obtain a risk amount value between 0 and 100.
14. The activity security risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of:
when the total risk value is 80-100, the activity risk level is rated as extremely high risk;
when the total risk value is between 60 and 80 and does not contain 80, the activity risk level is evaluated as high risk;
when the total risk value is between 31 and 60 and does not contain 60, the activity risk level is rated as medium risk; and
when the total risk value is between 0 and 30 and does not contain 30, the activity risk rating is low risk.
15. The activity security risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of: importing and deleting each risk classification subset table data; performing expert quantity expansion and assignment; performing a subset number expansion and performing each subset index expansion; and deriving each subset evaluation score, three single indexes with highest risk, a total score, a final risk grade and a risk evaluation report in the grade evaluation.
16. The activity security risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of: and carrying out on-site survey on each single evaluation index to acquire data and simultaneously carrying out safety inspection.
17. The activity security risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of: the substitution verification step of the data and the step of manually calculating the checking accuracy.
18. The activity security risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of: and feeding back risk control countermeasures.
19. The activity security risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises the steps of: matching a risk control scheme database according to the subset with higher risk and the single index; and feeding back a risk management and control suggestion in the assessment report according to the assessment grade.
20. The activity security risk assessment method of any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the activity security risk assessment method further comprises an environment establishing step and a risk disposing step.
21. The activity security risk assessment method of any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the risk factors include participant risk factors, activity environment risk factors, equipment and goods risk factors, security management measure risk factors, and special event risk factors.
22. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the activity security risk assessment method according to claims 1 to 21.
23. An active security risk assessment device, characterized in that it comprises:
a memory for storing a software application,
a processor for executing the software application,
wherein each program of the software application correspondingly performs the steps of the activity security risk assessment method as claimed in claims 1 to 21.
24. An activity security risk assessment system, comprising:
an account management subsystem, a third party institution management subsystem, an operator management subsystem, an expert management subsystem, a basic data management subsystem, a risk control measure database and a field security reconnaissance management subsystem,
wherein the expert management subsystem includes an additional expert management unit, a modification expert management unit, and a deletion expert management unit, the additional expert management unit configured to: acquiring and storing personal information data of an expert in an expert information database, the modified expert management unit being configured to: acquiring and modifying personal information data of an expert, the delete expert management unit being configured to: deleting personal information data of an expert;
wherein the third party organization management subsystem comprises an additional organization management unit, a modification organization management unit and a deletion organization management unit, the additional organization management unit is configured to: receiving and storing third party organization information data to a third party organization information database, the modification organization management unit being configured to: acquiring and modifying third party organization information data, the deletion organization management unit being configured to: deleting the third party organization information data;
the third-party organization management subsystem further comprises a task management unit, wherein the task management unit comprises a newly added task module, a task modification module and a task deletion module, and the newly added task module is configured as follows: obtain and store task information data to a task information database, the modify task module configured to: modifying task information data, the delete task module configured to: deleting the task information data;
wherein the operator management subsystem comprises a task audit management unit and an expert allocation management unit, the task audit management unit is configured to: receiving and processing a task auditing instruction, responding to the information of a system interface and the received accessory information, and feeding back corresponding auditing opinion information and information whether the task passes or not; the expert allocation management unit is configured to: receiving a task auditing pass instruction, acquiring and matching task information, and executing expert allocation;
wherein the site safety reconnaissance management subsystem is configured to: acquiring and processing task information to be surveyed, and feeding back risk index information;
the basic data management subsystem is provided with a risk index management unit, the risk index management unit comprises a newly-added risk index module, a risk index modification module, a risk index deletion module, a specific risk index setting module and an evaluation basis setting module, and the newly-added risk index module is configured to: obtaining and storing risk indicator information to the risk control measure database, the modify risk indicator module configured to: modifying risk indicator information, the delete risk indicator module deleting risk indicator information, the set specific risk indicator module configured to: storing and setting specific risk index information, wherein the setting evaluation basis module is configured to: and setting evaluation basis information corresponding to the specific risk index information in the specific risk index setting module.
25. The activity safety risk assessment system according to claim 24, wherein the risk index management unit of the basic data management subsystem transmits the set specific risk index information and the corresponding evaluation basis information to the on-site safety survey management subsystem, so that a survey crew can conduct an on-site survey through the displayed information of the on-site safety survey management subsystem.
26. An activity safety risk assessment system according to claim 25, wherein the activity safety risk assessment system further comprises a system management subsystem, the expert management subsystem is further provided with an index weight calculation unit, the site safety survey management subsystem obtains site survey data information corresponding to a task that has been approved, and the system management subsystem automatically calculates the score obtained for the task based on the site survey data information.
27. The activity safety risk assessment system according to claim 26, wherein the index weight unit of the expert management subsystem obtains the index weight after the two-by-two comparison score evaluation of the experts and the model algorithm calculation, and feeds back the index weight to the system management subsystem, and the system management subsystem obtains and summarizes the evaluation information of each expert, and generates and feeds back an activity safety risk assessment report.
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