CN112733361A - Optimal regulation and control method for grassland animal husbandry and related products - Google Patents
Optimal regulation and control method for grassland animal husbandry and related products Download PDFInfo
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- CN112733361A CN112733361A CN202110011690.0A CN202110011690A CN112733361A CN 112733361 A CN112733361 A CN 112733361A CN 202110011690 A CN202110011690 A CN 202110011690A CN 112733361 A CN112733361 A CN 112733361A
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of ecological balance, and provides an optimal regulation and control method for grassland animal husbandry and a related product, wherein the method comprises the steps of utilizing a pre-constructed grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model based on climate change and human activities to carry out dynamic simulation on a grassland animal husbandry system; then, evaluating the simulation result by utilizing a pre-constructed evaluation index system; and finally, making animal husbandry optimization regulation and control schemes under different scenes on the grassland animal husbandry system according to the evaluation result, and facilitating the sustainable development of animal husbandry.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ecological balance, in particular to an optimal regulation and control method for grassland animal husbandry and a related product.
Background
With the climate change and the increase of the resource utilization intensity, the ecological degradation of the grassland is intensified. The development of animal husbandry faces the challenges of strong herding intensity, strong human activities such as urbanization and the like, and sharp contradiction between grasses and livestock. Herd balance is an important goal and means of grassland management. The forage balance refers to a state that the amount of forage provided by grassland and other ways is balanced with the amount of livestock required in a certain time and space. The grass-livestock balance accounting indexes comprise 4 aspects of pasture yield, availability ratio, livestock feed intake, livestock carrying capacity and the like, the grass-livestock balance emphasizes a biological feedback mechanism between forage and animals, and the main management means comprises the bearing capacity of a conservation grassland, the control of the livestock carrying capacity, the diversification of herdsman living, and the like.
However, at present, there is no systematic optimization regulation and control technology method that comprehensively considers the grassland grass yield, the livestock carrying capacity, the herdsman and the influence and feedback mechanism of the three from the perspective of the grassland animal husbandry system, which is not beneficial to overall coordination of grassland ecological protection and animal husbandry development.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the technical problems in the prior art, the invention provides an optimal regulation and control method for grassland animal husbandry and related products, wherein the influence and feedback mechanism of grassland grass yield, livestock carrying capacity, herdsman and the three are comprehensively considered, the dynamics simulation is carried out on a grassland animal husbandry system, and then the evaluation is carried out through an animal husbandry sustainability evaluation index system, so that the future animal husbandry optimal regulation and control strategy is determined, and the sustainable development of the animal husbandry is facilitated.
Specifically, the method is mainly realized by the following technical scheme:
a grassland animal husbandry optimization regulation and control method based on climate change and human activities comprises the following steps:
carrying out dynamic simulation on the grassland animal husbandry system by utilizing a pre-constructed grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model based on climate change and human activities;
evaluating the simulation result by utilizing a pre-constructed evaluation index system;
and making animal husbandry optimization regulation and control schemes under different situations for the grassland animal husbandry system according to the evaluation result.
Preferably, initializing the grassland animal husbandry system dynamics model using the multi-source data is also included.
Preferably, the multi-source data comprises: grassland area, grass production, water area, livestock stock-keeping quantity, livestock slaughter quantity, livestock production value, pasture livestock-carrying rate, herdsman quantity, herdsman's accreditation and income.
Preferably, the multi-source data obtaining method includes: sample survey, remote sensing image and statistics.
Preferably, the performing dynamic simulation on the grassland animal husbandry system specifically includes:
the grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model comprises a grassland system module, a livestock system module and a herdsman system module;
the grassland system module simulates the future grassland area and the grass yield based on the grassland utilization and the productivity data;
the livestock system module simulates the livestock carrying capacity based on the grass yield and supplementary feeding data;
the herdsman system module simulates the number of herdsmen based on herdsman population change, the birth count and the consumption level data.
Preferably, evaluating the results of the simulation comprises: animal husbandry sustainability evaluation.
Preferably, the animal husbandry sustainability is assessed by the formula:
wherein v isiThe indexes include grassland area, grass production, water body area, livestock stock-keeping quantity, livestock slaughtering quantity, livestock production, pasture stock-carrying rate, herdsman number, herdsman life and income, and the index values include z1、z2、z3、z4And z5Wherein z is1＜z2＜z3＜z4＜z5，wiRepresenting the weights of the indexes of animal husbandry sustainability evaluation.
The utility model provides a meadow animal husbandry optimizes regulation and control device based on climatic change and human activity, includes simulation module, index evaluation module and optimizes regulation and control module:
the simulation module carries out dynamic simulation on the grassland animal husbandry system by utilizing a pre-constructed grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model based on climate change and human activities and sends a simulation result to the index evaluation module; the index evaluation module evaluates the simulation result by utilizing a pre-constructed evaluation index system; the optimization regulation and control module makes animal husbandry optimization regulation and control schemes under different situations for the grassland animal husbandry system according to the evaluation result of the index evaluation module.
An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing, when executing the computer program, some or all of the steps of any of the above methods for optimized regulation of grassland animal husbandry based on climate change and human activity.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the influence of climate change and human activities is comprehensively considered, the dynamics simulation is carried out on the grassland animal husbandry system, and then the evaluation is carried out through the animal husbandry sustainability evaluation index system, so that the future animal husbandry optimization regulation strategy is determined, and the problems of grassland degradation, aggravation of conflict between grassland and livestock, enhancement of human activities such as grazing and urbanization and the like in the animal husbandry development are solved.
Drawings
1. FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a typical grazing area animal husbandry system dynamics model in Mongolian according to an embodiment of the present invention;
2. fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of unmanned aerial vehicle herd grazing and settlement point monitoring in an embodiment of the invention;
3. fig. 3(a) is a schematic view of a dynamics model of an ecological economic system of the animal husbandry in the alpine animal husbandry in the embodiment of the invention, and 3(b) is a graph showing the change of livestock stocking, newly-added livestock and livestock slaughtering along with time;
4. FIG. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an optimized regulating device for grassland animal husbandry based on climate change and human activities according to an embodiment of the present invention;
5. fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the core idea of the present invention more clearly understood, the following detailed description will be made with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Example one
The embodiment of the invention provides a grassland animal husbandry optimal regulation and control method based on climate change and human activities, and the grassland animal husbandry optimal regulation and control method is explained by taking Mongolian animal husbandry optimal regulation and control as an example.
Case areas are arranged in typical grazing places such as forest grassland, typical grassland, desert grassland and the like of Mongolian countries, multi-source data are integrated, and a dynamics model of a Mongolian typical grassland animal husbandry system is constructed based on a Vensim DSS environment. The model comprises a grassland system module, a livestock system module and a herdsman system module, a module variable interaction and causal relationship flow diagram (shown in figure 1) is drawn, the grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model is initialized by adopting multi-source data, the change rate of each horizontal variable is determined by fitting the statistical law among the variables, a quantitative expression equation between the variables is established, and the grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model is started to carry out dynamic simulation on the Mongolian typical animal husbandry system.
Wherein, the acquisition mode of the multi-source data comprises: sample survey, remote sensing image and statistics, specifically, in a typical grazing land, 3-5 treatments and 3 repetitions are set selectively, vegetation ecology and soil quality survey samples are established, grassland vegetation soil samples are surveyed in growing seasons, and aboveground biomass, coverage, diversity and dominant species are surveyed. And measuring the pH value, the volume weight, the water content and the texture of the soil in a corresponding sample prescription, collecting rhizosphere soil samples, and measuring organic matters, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and total potassium. And analyzing the influence of the grassland with different utilization strengths on the vegetation and the soil.
As shown in fig. 2, herd grazing behavior monitoring includes real-time monitoring of herd numbers and livestock grazing behaviors by using an animal-worn sensor in combination with DJ unmanned aerial vehicle aerial photography, to achieve integrated analysis of animal-environment.
Institutional interviews and in-house questionnaires: grassland management, herd quantity and structure, herdsman's livelihood.
Model simulation and integrated analysis: an animal husbandry system dynamics model is constructed by adopting SD (system dynamics, system dynamics theory), and future Land utilization is simulated by adopting FLUS (future Land Use simulation).
The grassland animal husbandry system dynamics model comprises horizontal variables: grassland area, livestock stock-keeping quantity and herdsman population, auxiliary variable: newly increased livestock volume, livestock slaughtering volume, herdsman income, supplementary feeding cost, grass yield, livestock feed intake and the like, and the control variables are as follows: climate profile, market price, population size and urbanization, level of consumption, etc.
Specifically, the grassland system module simulates the future grassland area and the grass yield based on the grassland utilization and the productivity data;
the livestock system module simulates the livestock carrying capacity based on the grass yield and supplementary feeding data;
the herdsman system module simulates the number of herdsmen based on herdsman population change, the birth count and the consumption level data.
And evaluating the simulated result by utilizing a pre-constructed evaluation index system, analyzing the development current situation, the existing problems and the balanced situation of the grassland and livestock in Mongolia, screening the main indexes of the development of the livestock such as grassland area, grass production, water and water source areas, livestock stock quantity, slaughter quantity, sales volume, herd structure, herdsman quantity, herdsman livelihood and income and the like, and constructing the Mongolia sustainability evaluation index system comprising the evaluation of the comprehensive sustainability indexes of the grassland and livestock.
The animal husbandry sustainability is evaluated by the following formula:
wherein v isiThe indexes include grassland area, grass production, water body area, livestock stock-keeping quantity, livestock slaughtering quantity, livestock production, pasture stock-carrying rate, herdsman number, herdsman life and income, and the index values include z1、z2、z3、z4And z5Wherein z is1＜z2＜z3＜z4＜z5，wiRepresenting the weights of the indexes of animal husbandry sustainability evaluation.
For example, according to the indexes from inferior to superior, the indexes are respectively endowed with scores of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, and when g is shown in Table 11Is (50,100)]Then, the grasslandThe area is 4. And each index weight w of animal husbandry sustainability evaluationiThe method is determined by adopting a hierarchical analysis AHP (analytic hierarchy Process).
TABLE 1
In Table 1, g1: grassland area change ratio (%), g2: grass yield change (%) g3: water area change rate (%), (ii) water area change rate [% ], and (iii) water area change rate [% ], and1: livestock stock rate of change (%), (ii) livestock stock rate of change [% ]2: rate of change of animal husbandry output (%), l3: animal loading (%) in the pasture h1: percent change of per capita livestock occupancy (%), h2: average income of herdsmen/average income of urban and rural residents, h3: the herd accounts for diversity (individual).
And finally, making animal husbandry optimization regulation and control schemes under different situations for the grassland animal husbandry system according to the evaluation results.
The sustainable animal husbandry system should be a negative feedback, dynamic adaptive system for drafting stock. Once the storage capacity exceeds the carrying capacity, the storage capacity needs to be increased to be in a balanced state by means of increasing the output capacity and the like.
The method drives the grass yield by climate situation data, simulates urbanization by population migration, simulates market fluctuation by livestock products and forage grass price, simulates human activity influence by herdsman's livelihood and consumption level, and simulates policy influence such as ecological compensation. And by changing the regulation variables and comparing the dynamic changes of the animal husbandry system under different regulation and control situations, an animal husbandry optimization regulation and control strategy is provided.
Specifically, based on the fifth-stage global climate assimilation international coupling pattern comparison plan CMIP 5(coupled model intercourse Project Phase 5), air temperature and precipitation data in year 2020 and 2050 of Mongolian countries under the situation of the Representative Concentration path RCP4.5 (regenerative communication Pathway) are acquired, and a Future Land utilization change scenario Simulation model GeoSOS-plus (Future Land Use) is adopted in combination with factors of Land utilization, traffic, industry and environment policies, so as to simulate Future Land utilization, especially grassland scenarios. CMIP 5 provides 2006 + 2100 year monthly global climate mode assimilation data, selects 2020 + 2050 year monthly average temperature and precipitation data under the circumstance of CMCC-CM mode RCP4.5 concentration, adopts GeoSOS-FLUS to simulate the future grassland area based on 1990 + 2020 grassland utilization data, and inputs model data: and (5) outputting a model after the land is grown up: and classifying grid data of the predicted annual land.
The method is characterized in that balance of first and second productivity is taken as an optimization target, exogenous variables such as climate change, population management and control, herd quantity control and government intervention are taken as control variables, dynamic change processes of endogenous variables such as grassland area, grass production, livestock stock quantity and herdsman income under different control scenes are simulated, comparison and optimization of animal husbandry control schemes are carried out by evaluating sustainability of an animal husbandry system, and finally animal husbandry optimization control strategies are provided from the aspects of bearing capacity management and control, space layout optimization, multifunctional land coordination and the like.
For example, as shown in fig. 3, a grassland-livestock-population system is considered, based on herdsman research, sample survey and remote sensing data, a qiangtang plateau herdsman scale SD model is constructed, system evolution dynamics in 2011-. Proposing a proposal for relieving the conflict between natural conservation and animal husbandry development: the method comprises the steps of returning from pasture to wild, centralized optimization of residential sites, industrial transformation and characteristic development, and strengthening systematic research on grasses, livestock, beasts and people.
Example two
The utility model provides a meadow animal husbandry optimizes regulation and control device based on climatic change and human activity, as shown in fig. 4, includes simulation module, index evaluation module and optimizes regulation and control module:
the simulation module carries out dynamic simulation on the grassland animal husbandry system by utilizing a pre-constructed grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model based on climate change and human activities and sends a simulation result to the index evaluation module; the index evaluation module evaluates the simulation result by utilizing a pre-constructed evaluation index system; the optimization regulation and control module makes animal husbandry optimization regulation and control schemes under different situations for the grassland animal husbandry system according to the evaluation result of the index evaluation module.
Preferably, the system further comprises an initialization module for initializing the grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model by using the multi-source data.
Preferably, the simulation module comprises a pre-constructed grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model based on climate change and human activities, and the grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model comprises a grassland system module, a livestock system module and a herdsman system module; the grassland system module simulates the future grassland area and the grass yield based on the grassland utilization and the productivity data; the livestock system module simulates the livestock carrying capacity based on the grass yield and supplementary feeding data; the herdsman system module simulates the number of herdsmen based on herdsman population change, the birth count and the consumption level data.
Preferably, the index evaluation module is specifically used for animal husbandry sustainability evaluation, and specifically is evaluated by the following formula:
wherein v isiExpressing the values of various indexes of the sustainability of the animal husbandry, wherein the indexes comprise grassland area, grass production, water body area, livestock stock keeping quantity, livestock slaughtering quantity, animal husbandry production value, livestock carrying rate of a pasture, the number of herdsmen, the livelihood and income, and the values of the indexes comprise z1、z2、z3、z4And z5Wherein z is1＜z2＜z3＜z4＜z5，wiRepresenting the weight of each index of animal husbandry sustainability.
The grassland animal husbandry optimal regulation and control device based on the climate change and the human activities in the embodiment of the invention corresponds to the grassland animal husbandry optimal regulation and control method based on the climate change and the human activities in the embodiment, and the corresponding functions are realized.
EXAMPLE III
An electronic device, as shown in fig. 5, comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement some or all of the steps of any of the methods for the optimized regulation and control of grassland animal husbandry based on climate change and human activity.
The foregoing detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention has been presented for the purpose of illustrating the principles and implementations of the present invention, and the description of the embodiments is only provided to assist understanding of the core concepts of the present invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, there may be variations in the specific embodiments and the application scope, and in summary, the content of the present specification should not be construed as a limitation to the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. A grassland animal husbandry optimization regulation and control method based on climate change and human activities is characterized by comprising the following steps:
carrying out dynamic simulation on the grassland animal husbandry system by utilizing a pre-constructed grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model based on climate change and human activities;
evaluating the simulation result by utilizing a pre-constructed evaluation index system;
and making animal husbandry optimization regulation and control schemes under different situations for the grassland animal husbandry system according to the evaluation result.
2. The method of claim 1, further comprising initializing a grassland animal husbandry system dynamics model using the multi-source data.
3. A method for optimized regulation of grassland animal husbandry based on climate change and human activity as claimed in claim 2, wherein the multi-source data comprises: grassland area, grass production, water area, livestock stock-keeping quantity, livestock slaughter quantity, livestock production value, pasture livestock-carrying rate, herdsman quantity, herdsman's accreditation and income.
4. A method as claimed in claim 3, wherein the multi-source data is obtained by a method including: sample survey, remote sensing image and statistics.
5. The method for optimizing and controlling grassland animal husbandry based on climate change and human activities according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the performing dynamic simulation on the grassland animal husbandry system specifically comprises:
the grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model comprises a grassland system module, a livestock system module and a herdsman system module;
the grassland system module simulates future grassland area and grass yield based on grassland utilization and productivity data;
the livestock system module simulates the livestock carrying capacity based on the grass yield and supplementary feeding data;
the herdsman system module simulates the number of herdsmen based on herdsman population change, the birth count and the consumption level data.
6. A method as claimed in claim 5, wherein the evaluation of the results of the simulation comprises: animal husbandry sustainability evaluation.
7. A method of optimised regulation of grassland animal husbandry based on climate change and human activity as claimed in claim 6, wherein animal husbandry sustainability is assessed by the following formula:
wherein v isiThe values of various indexes representing the sustainability evaluation of animal husbandry, wherein the indexes comprise grassland area and grass yieldWater area, livestock stock-keeping quantity, livestock slaughtering quantity, livestock production value, stock farm animal-carrying rate, herdsman quantity, herdsman livelihood and income, wherein the index value comprises z1、z2、z3、z4And z5Wherein z is1＜z2＜z3＜z4＜z5，wiRepresenting the weights of the indexes of animal husbandry sustainability evaluation.
8. The utility model provides a meadow animal husbandry optimizes regulation and control device based on climatic change and human activity which characterized in that, includes simulation module, index evaluation module and optimizes regulation and control module:
the simulation module carries out dynamic simulation on the grassland animal husbandry system by utilizing a pre-constructed grassland animal husbandry system dynamic model based on climate change and human activities and sends a simulation result to the index evaluation module; the index evaluation module evaluates the simulation result by utilizing a pre-constructed evaluation index system; the optimization regulation and control module makes animal husbandry optimization regulation and control schemes under different situations for the grassland animal husbandry system according to the evaluation result of the index evaluation module.
9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in said memory and executable on said processor, characterized in that said processor, when executing said computer program, implements the steps of a method for optimized regulation of grassland animal husbandry based on climate change and human activity as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 8.
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