CN112711919A - Conductor icing forecasting method and system based on middle and small scale mode coupling - Google Patents
Conductor icing forecasting method and system based on middle and small scale mode coupling Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of disaster prevention and reduction of a power grid, and discloses a wire icing forecasting method and system based on middle and small scale mode coupling. The method comprises the following steps: combining data such as live atmosphere data; simulating and calculating meteorological element data in the future set time of the line region through a mesoscale mode; taking the meteorological element information as an entrance condition and an initial condition of a small-scale mode calculation model; developing a medium and small scale coupling mode interface module, collecting high-precision grid topographic data of a circuit area to be analyzed, inputting the high-precision grid topographic data, inlet conditions, boundary conditions and initial conditions into a medium and small scale coupling mode, and calculating meteorological element data related to micro-terrain icing, wherein the meteorological element data comprises wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure, liquid water content in air, water vapor content and the like; and inputting meteorological element data obtained by a medium and small scale coupling mode as wire icing model data to obtain a real-time icing condition prediction result of the area where the electric wire is located.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of disaster prevention and reduction of a power grid, in particular to a wire icing forecasting method and system based on middle and small scale mode coupling.
Background
With the continuous development of power transmission lines in China, the gradual implementation of development strategies such as western development, western electric power transmission and east transmission, more and more high-voltage and ultrahigh-voltage power transmission lines pass through areas with frequent icing disasters. The icing of the transmission line is easy to cause the safety accident of the power grid, and has great harm to national economy. Therefore, the method can accurately forecast the occurrence and development of the icing of the power transmission line, not only can provide a reasonable scheme for the design of the power transmission line, but also has important significance for guiding the prevention and control of the freezing disaster on the power transmission line.
At present, two methods for predicting the thickness of ice accumulated on the electric wire are respectively an equipment observation method and a method for predicting the ice coating of the wire by using a common inversion algorithm. The device observation methods, such as patent applications CN111047177A and CN110866693A in 2020, refer to observing the condition of the power transmission line through the change conditions of the image, the analysis result of the image data or the sensor value, so as to obtain the ice coating condition of the power transmission line. The equipment observation method can estimate the ice thickness and give an early warning. However, due to the real-time property of the monitoring data, the time for sending out the freezing is very limited, the preparation time for scheduling, operation and maintenance work is greatly reduced, and the early warning effect is not ideal. The algorithm of the common inversion predicts wire icing such as patent CN 105654189A. At present, weather forecasts provided by professional weather stations and WRF models cannot provide accurate weather conditions related to the vicinity of an important power transmission channel corridor and the terrain, the duration of the process of a freezing day and the change of the freezing thickness are not considered in a weather threshold method, particularly, the icing of electric wires is influenced by the high-precision GIS terrain and weather factors, and the objectivity and the accuracy of freezing early warning are reduced.
Therefore, an early warning method considering the influence of the micro-terrain climate of the area where the electric wire is located, the influence of the duration time of the freezing weather process and the ice thickness is needed to be constructed for the important electric transmission channel, the capacity of the important electric transmission channel for coping with the electric wire freezing is improved, the safe and stable operation level of the important electric transmission channel is improved, and meanwhile, a reasonable design scheme is provided for the electric transmission line.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to disclose a wire icing forecasting method and system based on small and medium scale mode coupling, provide a reasonable scheme for the design of a power transmission line, and provide technical support for guiding the forecasting and early warning of freezing disasters on the power transmission line.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention discloses a wire icing forecasting method based on medium and small scale mode coupling, which comprises the following steps:
step S1, combining with the live atmosphere data, calculating meteorological element data in the future set time of the line area through mesoscale mode simulation; the meteorological element data comprise wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure and liquid water content of air;
step S2, developing a small and medium-scale coupling mode interface module, and taking the meteorological data information as small-scale mode calculation model program entry conditions and initial conditions;
s3, collecting high-precision grid topographic data of a circuit area to be analyzed, inputting the high-precision grid topographic data, an entrance condition, a boundary condition and an initial condition into a medium and small scale coupling mode, and calculating meteorological information data which are related to micro-topography and ice coating and comprise wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure, air liquid water content and water vapor content in a medium and small scale coupling mode;
and step S4, inputting meteorological element data obtained by the medium and small scale coupling mode as wire icing model data to obtain a real-time icing condition prediction result of the area where the wire is located.
Preferably, the mesoscale mode employs WRF (Weather Research and Weather Research, forecast), and the miniscale mode employs CFD (computational fluid dynamics) general-purpose software.
Preferably, the step S2 further includes: and (3) corresponding the point of the large grid WRF with the point of the small grid of the CFD by linear interpolation, and taking the WRF result after interpolation processing as the boundary condition and the initial condition of the small-scale mode calculation model program.
Preferably, in the small scale mode calculation model program in step S2, the CFD multi-phase flow model is implemented by using a vof (volume of flow) algorithm.
Preferably, the step S4 adopts a Jones equivalent ice thickness model calculation and a Makkonen icing model; the formula of the rime equivalent ice thickness model of Jones is as follows:
wherein Req is the ice thickness of the ice growth, PiIs the amount of precipitation per unit time, pwDensity of water, piIs the density of ice. ViIs the wind speed, WiThe water content is liquid water content during precipitation;
when the ground temperature rises to zero or above and no freezing rain is generated, the accumulated ice melting formula is started:
dM＝-0.087-0.08T
wherein T is the temperature at the current moment, and dM is the mass of accumulated ice melting in unit time;
the Makkonen icing model is realized by adopting the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
is the amount of mass increase of accumulated ice per unit time, a1As a collision rate, a2For the capture rate, a3For freezing rate, v is the effective particle velocity, i.e. wind speed, w is the liquid water content, and S is the effective ice accretion cross section.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention further discloses a wire icing forecasting system based on medium and small scale mode coupling, which includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and capable of running on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of the above method when executing the computer program.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. according to the technical scheme, the weather element numerical value of the corridor of the important power transmission channel is obtained through weather mode WRF and CFD coupling simulation, the accuracy of the selection of the weather elements can reach 30 meters or even 1 meter, and the accuracy and pertinence of the conductor ice thickness are improved.
2. According to the technical scheme, the influence of the duration time of the ice thickness weather process is considered, and the influence degree of the ice thickness event of the lead on the power grid is fully reflected.
3. According to the technical scheme, according to the weather element forecast result and by combining the landform and the circuit structure parameters of the important power transmission channel, the timeliness of ice thickness early warning can be improved, and the influence of installing force sensors and other on-line monitoring devices on the important power transmission channel can be avoided.
4. According to the technical scheme, the ice thickness early warning considers the duration time of the weather process and the influence of ice growth and fusion, so that the ice thickness early warning result is more credible, and the practicability of the ice thickness early warning is improved.
5. According to the technical scheme, the ice thickness early warning result with high resolution can be used for carrying out ice thickness early warning on the towers of the important power transmission channels, and the practicability is high.
The present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the invention and not to limit the invention. In the drawings:
fig. 1 is a flowchart of a wire icing forecasting method based on small and medium scale mode coupling according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The embodiments of the invention will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings, but the invention can be implemented in many different ways as defined and covered by the claims.
Example 1
The embodiment discloses a wire icing forecasting method based on small and medium scale mode coupling, as shown in fig. 1, comprising the following steps:
step S1, combining with the live atmosphere data, calculating meteorological element data in the future set time of the line area through mesoscale mode simulation; the meteorological element data comprise wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure and liquid water content of air.
And step S2, developing a small and medium-scale coupling mode interface module, and taking the meteorological data information as the entrance condition and the initial condition of the small-scale mode calculation model program.
And S3, collecting high-precision grid topographic data of the circuit area to be analyzed, inputting the high-precision grid topographic data, the entrance condition, the boundary condition and the initial condition into a medium and small scale coupling mode, and calculating meteorological information data which are related to micro-topography and ice coating and comprise wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure, air liquid water content and water vapor content in a medium and small scale coupling mode.
And step S4, inputting meteorological element data obtained by the medium and small scale coupling mode as wire icing model data to obtain a real-time icing condition prediction result of the area where the wire is located.
Optionally, in this embodiment, the mesoscale mode may use WRF, and the miniscale mode uses CFD general-purpose software.
Based on the above gist, the more detailed implementation steps are as follows:
1. collecting topographic data and grid data on the power transmission line to generate WPS data and real atmospheric data on the power transmission line; collecting two-dimensional, three-dimensional and slope gradient data required by the ideal ARW; and simulating and predicting meteorological elements such as high-resolution temperature, wind speed and humidity by using ARW in WRF according to the information and the data.
2. In order to obtain accurate climate flow field information in a local terrain area, a terrain numerical model for CFD calculation is established by utilizing high-precision (30 m, 10 m and 1 m) level GIS elevation terrain; the format of the extracted GIS elevation data is as follows: longitude, latitude and altitude, processing the data, converting the format into a three-dimensional (x, y, z) coordinate form, and performing regularization processing on the coordinates to ensure that the coordinates of each row and each column are uniformly distributed; and importing the three-dimensional coordinate points subjected to regularization into OPEN FOAM, establishing a model, and introducing OPEN FOAM into a division grid, namely completing the establishment of a terrain model for CFD calculation.
3. According to temperature and other meteorological data obtained by WRF, because the grid of WRF is larger and the grid of CFD is smaller, the point of large grid WRF and the point of small grid of CFD are corresponded by linear interpolation. Taking the results of WRF as boundary conditions and initial conditions of CFD multiphase flow; setting a horizontal grid and a vertical grid of the WRF mode to enable the accuracy of the mode in the horizontal direction to reach 1 km; the number of the near-ground vertical grid layers is encrypted in the vertical direction, so that the mode is divided into 17 layers within 1km vertically, and the data transmission requirement of medium and small-scale CFD nesting is basically met.
4. According to the climatic characteristics of each power transmission area, a proper CFD multiphase flow model is selected, and meteorological factors influencing conductor icing can be fully considered; there are models for multi-phase flow selection, such as VOF (volume of flow), mixture (mixture) model, Eulerian (Eulerian) model, etc.
For example, by the VOF algorithm:
where ρ is the fluid density, t is the flow time,
representing the fluid velocity, ωiIs the component of air, water and other elements, and C is any meteorological element, such as problem T. The accurate values of meteorological elements such as temperature, pressure intensity, water content and the like of any lead and iron tower position can be calculated through the multiphase flow.
5. And calculating and predicting the water content, the wind speed, the temperature, the air density and the air viscosity required by the icing model of the conductor in a period of time through the CFD multiphase flow model.
6. Respectively adopting an equivalent ice thickness model of Jones and a Makkonen icing model according to the electric wire ice accumulation model, different topographic data and weather; wherein the equivalent ice thickness model of Jones is the three parts of the judgment of freezing rain and the growth and melting of the thickness of accumulated ice:
(1) judging the freezing rain, wherein the wet bulb temperature Tw at the height of a precipitation formation layer is more than or equal to-6.6 ℃, or one point Tw in a temperature profile from the ground to the formation layer is more than or equal to 0 ℃, and when the IF value (the ratio of ice phase precipitation to total precipitation) is between 0 and 0.85 and the ground surface temperature Tw is less than 0 ℃, judging the freezing rain. The freezing rain ice-deposition mechanism is started when the precipitation type is freezing rain, the ice-deposition state is in the maintenance stage when the precipitation type is snow or rain and snow, and the ice-deposition state is in the melting state when the precipitation type is rain.
(2) After freezing rain occurs, the formula of the rime equivalent ice thickness model of Jones is adopted as follows:
where Req is the ice thickness of the ice growth, P is the precipitation per unit time, ρwDensity of water, piIs the density of ice. ViIs the wind speed, WiIs the liquid water content of precipitation.
(3) When the ground temperature rises to zero or above and no freezing rain is generated, the accumulated ice melting formula is started:
dM＝-0.087-0.08T
wherein T is the temperature at the current moment, and dM is the mass of accumulated ice melting in unit time.
The Makkonen icing model was implemented as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
is the amount of mass increase of accumulated ice per unit time, a1As a collision rate, a2For the capture rate, a3For freezing rate, v is the effective particle velocity, i.e. wind speed, w is the liquid water content, and S is the effective ice accretion cross section.
Meanwhile, simulating the physical variables of the meteorological elements on the fine grid and the conductor icing galloping by utilizing a numerical weather mode and a meteorological data assimilation mode; in the simulation process, high-resolution topographic data are comprehensively considered, and the meteorological parameters are output according to meteorological industry specifications. Dividing an important power transmission channel corridor area into a plurality of grids calculated by CFD (computational fluid dynamics) of 6km by 6km, wherein the CFD adopts a fine grid of 30 meters by 30 meters, each fine grid is represented by W (i, j, k), and each fine grid W (i, j, k) has data of temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, precipitation and ice coating thickness every 15 minutes; forecasting the meteorological elements four times a day, wherein the starting time is 2 points, 8 points, 14 points and 20 points; the output time resolution was 15 minutes per forecast 72 hours into the future.
Example 2
This embodiment is a further modification based on the detailed description of the above embodiment. The embodiment comprises the following steps:
1. WRF topographic data and grid data of the whole large geographical area where the important power transmission channel is located are collected and transmitted to a WRF preprocessing program WPS.
WPS is mainly characterized in that variables in namelist.wps files are set, nesting levels and nesting proportions (which can be set to be 3-5 layers) of a simulation area are defined according to the whole geographical large area where a power transmission channel is located, grid points and grid intervals of an outermost nested area are generally nested into a first layer (d01), a second layer (02) and a third layer (d03), and horizontal resolutions of nested areas of the third layer (d04) are respectively 27km, 9km, 3km and 1 km.
The terrain data required for interpolation (GMTED30 terrain data) is ordered using the geodrid.
Introducing high-precision topographic data into a WRF step:
(1) the required GMTED30m terrain data is downloaded.
(2) And converting the downloaded terrain data file format into the WRF static terrain data format by using gdal software.
(3) Renaming the data after the format conversion, establishing an index file for the data, and storing all the files into a geographical data folder of the WPS.
(4) In geogid under the WPS file, geogid.
WPS in WPS specifies the simulation domain using this data.
Reading meteorological data (meteorological elements given by a meteorological station such as wind speed, temperature, humidity, rainfall and the like) required by ice deposition by using an ungrib. exe program command, and interpolating the meteorological data into a required simulation area; exe program command integrates both to interpolate to the area.
2. According to the grid data of the pre-processing WPS and the real meteorological data of the area where the power transmission channel is located, an ideal data model is combined, and the ARW mode in the WRF is used for simulating meteorological elements such as wind speed, temperature, water content and the like.
Selecting a parameterized schema for WRF:
and topographic data in step 1.
3. And generating a CFD numerical simulation calculation area according to GIS terrain elevation data and a grid division method of a small geographic area where the power transmission channel is located.
The grid resolution of GIS elevation data is generally set to be 30M according to the actual situation of a geographical small area where a power transmission channel is located, wherein the area is generally set to be 6km multiplied by 6km, 6km multiplied by 6km or 10km multiplied by 10km and the like.
4. And generating initial conditions and boundary conditions required by CFD according to meteorological elements such as wind speed, temperature and water content and the like of WRF by combining a WRF large grid and CFD small grid meteorological element linear interpolation scheme.
If the grid size of WRF in the power transmission channel is set to be 1KM, the grid resolution of CFD is 30M, and the grid size is 6 KM. Here only 24 points of the WRF grid need be linearly interpolated to the grid points needed for CFD. The wind speed, temperature, humidity, rainfall and other meteorological parameters on the WRF grid can be converted to the grid with the accuracy of 30M of the CFD through an interpolation function.
5. According to the CFD calculation grid, the initial condition and the boundary condition of the small area where the important power transmission channel is located, the multiphase flow model is used for calculating meteorological elements such as temperature and wind speed required by the electric power ice accretion model.
Selecting a multiphase flow model in CFD: such as the VOF algorithm of embodiment 1 above.
6. And simulating and predicting the thickness and ice accumulation change condition of the wire of the power transmission line according to the electric wire ice accumulation model and by combining the actual parameters of the wire on the power transmission line. And provide an early warning. The specific implementation is the same as that of embodiment 1, and details are not repeated.
Example 3
Corresponding to the method embodiment, the embodiment provides a micro-terrain area wind farm icing prediction system, which comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, wherein the processor realizes the steps of the method when executing the program.
In summary, the method and system for forecasting wire icing based on small and medium scale mode coupling disclosed by the embodiments of the present invention have the following beneficial effects:
1. according to the technical scheme, the weather element numerical value of the corridor of the important power transmission channel is obtained through weather mode WRF and CFD coupling simulation, the accuracy of the selection of the weather elements can reach 30 meters or even 1 meter, and the accuracy and pertinence of the conductor ice thickness are improved.
2. According to the technical scheme, the influence of the duration time of the ice thickness weather process is considered, and the influence degree of the ice thickness event of the lead on the power grid is fully reflected.
3. According to the technical scheme, according to the weather element forecast result and by combining the landform and the circuit structure parameters of the important power transmission channel, the timeliness of ice thickness early warning can be improved, and the influence of installing force sensors and other on-line monitoring devices on the important power transmission channel can be avoided.
4. According to the technical scheme, the ice thickness early warning considers the duration time of the weather process and the influence of ice growth and fusion, so that the ice thickness early warning result is more credible, and the practicability of the ice thickness early warning is improved.
5. According to the technical scheme, the ice thickness early warning result with high resolution can be used for carrying out ice thickness early warning on the towers of the important power transmission channels, and the practicability is high.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention, and various modifications and changes may be made by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. A wire icing forecasting method based on medium and small scale mode coupling is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1, combining with the live atmosphere data, calculating meteorological element data in the future set time of the line area through mesoscale mode simulation; the meteorological element data comprise wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure and liquid water content of air;
step S2, developing a small and medium-scale coupling mode interface module, and taking the meteorological data information as small-scale mode calculation model program entry conditions and initial conditions;
s3, collecting high-precision grid topographic data of a circuit area to be analyzed, inputting the high-precision grid topographic data, an entrance condition, a boundary condition and an initial condition into a medium and small scale coupling mode, and calculating meteorological information data which are related to micro-topography and ice coating and comprise wind speed, temperature, atmospheric pressure, air liquid water content and water vapor content in a medium and small scale coupling mode;
and step S4, inputting meteorological element data obtained by the medium and small scale coupling mode as wire icing model data to obtain a real-time icing condition prediction result of the area where the wire is located.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the mesoscale mode employs WRF and the miniscale mode employs CFD generic software.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the step S2 further comprises: and (3) corresponding the point of the large grid WRF with the point of the small grid of the CFD by linear interpolation, and taking the WRF result after interpolation processing as the boundary condition and the initial condition of the small-scale mode calculation model program.
4. The method of claim 2, wherein the small scale mode calculation model program in step S2 is implemented by using a VOF algorithm with a CFD multiphase flow model.
5. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the step S4 employs a Jones equivalent ice thickness model calculation and a Makkonen icing model; the formula of the rime equivalent ice thickness model of Jones is as follows:
where Req is the ice thickness of the ice growth, P is the precipitation per unit time, ρwDensity of water, piIs the density of ice. ViIs the wind speed, WiThe water content is liquid water content during precipitation;
when the ground temperature rises to zero or above and no freezing rain is generated, the accumulated ice melting formula is started:
dM＝-0.087-0.08T
wherein T is the temperature at the current moment, and dM is the mass of accumulated ice melting in unit time;
the Makkonen icing model is realized by adopting the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
is the amount of mass increase of accumulated ice per unit time, a1As a collision rate, a2For the capture rate, a3For freezing rate, v is the effective particle velocity, i.e. wind speed, w is the liquid water content, and S is the effective ice accretion cross section.
6. A wire icing forecasting system based on small and medium scale mode coupling, comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and operable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of the method as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 5 when executing the computer program.
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| CN114094603A (en) * | 2021-12-02 | 2022-02-25 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Prediction method and controller for power grid |
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