CN112700164A - Quantitative evaluation method and system of energy system and readable medium - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a quantitative evaluation method, a system and a readable medium of an energy system, comprising the following steps: s1, determining a plurality of evaluation indexes according to the energy system, and determining the index weight by adopting an analytic hierarchy process; s2, calculating the numerical value of the evaluation index according to the condition of the area to be measured; s3, carrying out dimensionless treatment on the numerical value of the evaluation index; and S4, multiplying the numerical value of the evaluation index subjected to non-dimensionalization processing by the corresponding index weight to obtain the score of a certain evaluation index, accumulating the scores of all the evaluation indexes to obtain the score of the energy system in the region to be measured, and quantitatively evaluating the energy system through the score of the energy system. The energy system energy distribution evaluation system can quantitatively evaluate the influence of energy system consumption side, supply side and energy environment, and can provide reference for energy distribution of each region.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a quantitative evaluation method, a quantitative evaluation system and a readable medium for an energy system, and belongs to the technical field of energy evaluation.
Background
With the rapid development of social economy, extensive energy exploitation and utilization cannot meet the requirements of current economic development, serious environmental problems can be caused, and transformation to low-carbon clean energy is urgently needed, so that the problems of climate change, atmospheric pollution and the like are solved. Although the need of energy transformation in China has reached a consensus, because the breadth of our country is broad, the resource endowment of each area is different, and the consumption condition of energy is also different, in order to realize low-carbon transformation of energy without influencing economic development, comprehensive evaluation needs to be carried out on energy systems in each area, thereby laying a foundation for development planning of energy systems. However, at present, a relatively complete and reasonable energy system evaluation method does not exist.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above problems, it is an object of the present invention to provide a method, a system, and a readable medium for quantitatively evaluating an energy system, which can quantitatively evaluate the influence of energy system on the consumption side, the supply side, and the energy environment, and can provide a reference for energy distribution in each region.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme: a quantitative evaluation method of an energy system comprises the following steps: s1, determining a plurality of evaluation indexes according to the energy system, and determining the index weight by adopting an analytic hierarchy process; s2, calculating the numerical value of the evaluation index according to the condition of the area to be measured; s3, carrying out dimensionless treatment on the numerical value of the evaluation index; and S4, multiplying the numerical value of the evaluation index subjected to non-dimensionalization processing by the corresponding index weight to obtain the score of a certain evaluation index, accumulating the scores of all the evaluation indexes to obtain the score of the energy system in the region to be measured, and quantitatively evaluating the energy system through the score of the energy system.
Further, the energy system includes three criteria layers, respectively: energy consumption side, supply side and externality, the evaluation index of consumption side includes: unit GDP energy consumption, energy consumption elastic coefficient of everyone non-material production department and electric power consumption ratio; the evaluation indexes on the supply side include: the proportion of non-fossil energy to primary energy, the proportion of coal to primary energy and the proportion of non-fossil energy in electric power; the evaluation indexes of the externality include: produce average CO2Annual emission and local average NOxAnnual emission and local average SO2Annual emission and ground-average annual emission of smoke dust.
Further, the evaluation index includes a positive evaluation index and a negative evaluation index, the score of the evaluation index is higher as the value of the positive evaluation index is higher, and the score of the evaluation index is lower as the value of the negative evaluation index is higher.
Further, the method for determining the index weight in step S1 is as follows: s1.1, comparing the evaluation indexes pairwise, and rating according to the importance degree of the evaluation indexes, aijThe two results are the results of comparing the importance of the element i and the element j, and the matrix formed by the final two results is the judgment matrix A ═ a (a)ij)n×n(ii) a S1.2, calculating a weight vector W and a characteristic root lambda of a judgment matrix A by adopting a geometric square root method; s1.3, sorting the evaluation indexes of each layer according to the weight vector W and the characteristic root lambda of the judgment matrix A, and carrying out consistency check on each evaluation index; s1.4, calculating the total weight of all the evaluation indexes of each layer, and carrying out consistency check on the evaluation indexes of the layers.
Further, in step S1.2, the calculation formulas of the weight vector W and the feature root λ of the judgment matrix a are respectively:
wherein λ ismaxTo determine the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix, (AW)iRepresenting the ith element of the vector AW.
Further, the method for performing consistency check on the evaluation indexes in step S1.3 is as follows: and calculating a consistency index CI, obtaining average random consistency RI, and calculating a consistency ratio CR which is CI/RI, wherein when CR is less than 0.10, the judgment matrix A is considered to have consistency, otherwise, the judgment matrix is corrected.
Further, the calculation formula of the consistency index CI is as follows:
wherein λ ismaxAnd n is the number of evaluation indexes for judging the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix.
Further, the formula of the non-dimensionalization processing in step S3 is:
the forward direction index is as follows:
negative direction index:
wherein: si,jThe percentile score result of the area j is shown for the index i; i isi,jIs the value of the I evaluation index of the region j, Ii, nationwideIs a national value of the i evaluation index.
The invention also discloses a quantitative evaluation system of the energy system, which comprises the following components: the weight calculation module is used for determining a plurality of evaluation indexes according to the energy system and determining the index weight by adopting an analytic hierarchy process; the evaluation index module is used for calculating the numerical value of the evaluation index according to the condition of the area to be measured; the non-dimensionalization module is used for carrying out non-dimensionalization processing on the numerical value of the evaluation index; and the energy system scoring module is used for multiplying the numerical value of the evaluation index subjected to non-dimensionalization processing by the corresponding index weight to obtain the score of a certain evaluation index, accumulating the scores of all the evaluation indexes to obtain the score of the energy system in the region to be measured, and quantitatively evaluating the energy system through the score of the energy system.
The invention also discloses a computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, the computer program being executed by a processor to implement the quantitative evaluation method of an energy system according to any one of the above.
Due to the adoption of the technical scheme, the invention has the following advantages: the invention provides 11 indexes under the criteria layers of an energy consumption side, a supply side, externality and the like, determines the weight coefficient of each index by adopting an analytic hierarchy process, obtains the comprehensive quantitative evaluation result of each region by carrying out dimensionless processing on the index value and finally calculating, is favorable for more clearly discovering the advantages and the disadvantages of the energy system development in different regions, and is favorable for making local energy development planning according to local conditions.
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Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a quantitative evaluation method of an energy system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is described in detail by way of specific embodiments in order to better understand the technical direction of the present invention for those skilled in the art. It should be understood, however, that the detailed description is provided for a better understanding of the invention only and that they should not be taken as limiting the invention. In describing the present invention, it is to be understood that the terminology used is for the purpose of description only and is not intended to be indicative or implied of relative importance.
The invention provides a quantitative evaluation method, a system and a readable medium of an energy system, which provide 11 indexes in total under the criteria layers of an energy consumption side, a supply side, externality and the like, determine the weight coefficient of each index by adopting an analytic hierarchy process, and finally calculate the comprehensive quantitative evaluation result of each area by dimensionless processing of index values. The scheme of the invention is illustrated by the following specific examples.
Example one
The embodiment discloses a quantitative evaluation method of an energy system, which comprises the following steps:
s1, determining a plurality of evaluation indexes according to the energy system, and determining the index weight by adopting an analytic hierarchy process.
The evaluation indexes of the energy system are shown in table 1, wherein the energy system comprises three criteria layers, which are respectively: energy consumption side, supply side and externality, the evaluation index of consumption side includes: unit GDP energy consumption, energy consumption elastic coefficient of everyone non-material production department and electric power consumption ratio; the evaluation indexes on the supply side include: the proportion of non-fossil energy to primary energy, the proportion of coal to primary energy and the proportion of non-fossil energy in electric power; the evaluation indexes of the externality include: produce average CO2Annual emission and local average NOxAnnual emission and local average SO2Annual emission and ground-average annual emission of smoke dust. The evaluation indexes comprise positive evaluation indexes and negative evaluation indexes, the higher the numerical value of the positive evaluation index is, the higher the score of the evaluation index is, and the higher the numerical value of the negative evaluation index is, the lower the score of the evaluation index is.
Table 1 evaluation index table of energy system
The method for determining the index weight in step S1 includes:
s1.1, comparing the evaluation indexes pairwise, and rating according to the importance degree of the evaluation indexes, aijThe two results are the results of comparing the importance of the element i and the element j, and the matrix formed by the final two results is the judgment matrix A ═ a (a)ij)n×n. The importance degree rating of the evaluation index is shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 importance degree rating Table of evaluation index
| Factor i to factor j | Quantized value |
| Of equal importance | 1 |
| Of slight importance | 3 |
| Of greater importance | 5 |
| Of strong importance | 7 |
| Of extreme importance | 9 |
| Intermediate values of two adjacent judgments | 2，4，6，8 |
S1.2, calculating a weight vector W and a characteristic root lambda of the judgment matrix A by adopting a geometric square root method.
The calculation formulas of the weight vector W and the characteristic root lambda of the judgment matrix A are respectively as follows:
wherein λ ismaxTo determine the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix, (AW)iRepresenting the ith element of the vector AW.
S1.3, ranking the evaluation indexes of each layer according to the weight vector W and the characteristic root lambda of the judgment matrix A, and carrying out consistency check on each evaluation index.
The method for carrying out consistency check on the evaluation indexes comprises the following steps: and calculating a consistency index CI, obtaining average random consistency RI, and calculating a consistency ratio CR which is CI/RI, wherein when CR is less than 0.10, the judgment matrix A is considered to have consistency, otherwise, the judgment matrix is corrected.
The consistency index CI is calculated as follows:
wherein λ ismaxAnd n is the number of evaluation indexes for judging the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix.
The average random consistency index RI is obtained by looking at table 3.
TABLE 3 average random consistency index
| n | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| RI | 0 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.89 | 1.12 | 1.24 |
n is the number of evaluation indexes.
S1.4, calculating the total weight of all the evaluation indexes of each layer, and carrying out consistency check on the evaluation indexes of the layers.
S2 calculates the numerical value of the evaluation index based on the state of the region to be measured.
The numerical value of the evaluation index is determined by the total energy consumption of the current year and the last year, the energy data of the third industry and the living expense, the population of the permanent residence, the GDP of the region, the total power consumption of the current year, the consumption of the local non-fossil energy, the external input (output) power, the consumption of coal, the power generation of the local non-fossil energy, the local power generation, the CO2And major atmospheric pollutants (NO)x、SO2Smoke, dust) and urban area.
S3 is a step of non-dimensionalizing the numerical value of the evaluation index.
In the dimensionless treatment, the optimal value (the positive evaluation index is the maximum value and the negative evaluation index is the minimum value) of each region is taken as 100 points, the corresponding score of the national index values is recorded as 60 points, so that the score scale of the specific evaluation index is determined, and the rest index values are scored according to equal-proportion interpolation.
The formula of the non-dimensionalization process is as follows:
the forward direction index is as follows:
negative direction index:
wherein: si,jThe percentile score result of the area j is shown for the index i; i isi,jIs the value of the I evaluation index of the region j, Ii, nationwideIs a national value of the i evaluation index. For a single index, the scoring interval is 0-100 points; if the above calculation result is a negative value, the result is recorded as 0.
And S4, multiplying the numerical value of the evaluation index subjected to non-dimensionalization processing by the corresponding index weight to obtain the score of a certain evaluation index, accumulating the scores of all the evaluation indexes to obtain the score of the energy system in the region to be measured, and quantitatively evaluating the energy system through the score of the energy system.
Example two
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment discloses a quantitative evaluation system of an energy system, which comprises:
the weight calculation module is used for determining a plurality of evaluation indexes according to the energy system and determining the index weight by adopting an analytic hierarchy process;
the evaluation index module is used for calculating the numerical value of the evaluation index according to the condition of the area to be measured;
the non-dimensionalization module is used for carrying out non-dimensionalization processing on the numerical value of the evaluation index;
and the energy system scoring module is used for multiplying the numerical value of the evaluation index subjected to non-dimensionalization processing by the corresponding index weight to obtain the score of a certain evaluation index, accumulating the scores of all the evaluation indexes to obtain the score of the energy system in the region to be measured, and quantitatively evaluating the energy system through the score of the energy system.
EXAMPLE III
In order to explain the technical scheme of the invention in more detail, the implementation is described by taking a specific example as an example.
Selecting 30 Chinese provinces as evaluation objects, and quantitatively evaluating the energy system of the provinces in 2017, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
s1, determining a plurality of evaluation indexes according to the energy system, and determining the index weight by adopting an analytic hierarchy process.
And determining the index weight by adopting an analytic hierarchy process. Firstly, a judgment matrix is constructed, the evaluation indexes are compared pairwise by adopting relative scales, and the grade is evaluated according to the importance degree of the evaluation indexes. And then calculating the characteristic vector and the characteristic root of the judgment matrix by adopting a geometric mean method (square root method). Then, carrying out hierarchical single ordering and consistency check. And finally, carrying out total hierarchical ordering and consistency check. The final weights of the levels of the determined index system are shown in table 4.
Table 4 evaluation index weight table of energy source system in this embodiment
S2 calculates the numerical value of the evaluation index based on the state of the region to be measured.
In this embodiment, relevant data of 30 provinces (temporary shortage of data in hong Kong, Australia and Tibet) in China in 2017 are collated, data such as population economy, pollutant emission and the like come from the annual book of Chinese statistics, data related to energy come from the annual book of Chinese energy statistics and the annual book of each province statistics, and carbon emission coefficients refer to IPCC published data. Wherein, the GDP gets the result of price at present, the growth rate gets the result of price invariance, and the energy consumption is converted according to the equivalence law. The specific index results are detailed in table 5.
TABLE 5 actual numerical value table of indexes of 30 provincial energy systems in China (2017)
S3 is a step of non-dimensionalizing the numerical value of the evaluation index.
In the dimensionless treatment, the optimal value (the positive evaluation index is the maximum value and the negative evaluation index is the minimum value) of each region is taken as 100 points, the corresponding score of the national index values is recorded as 60 points, so that the score scale of the specific evaluation index is determined, and the rest index values are scored according to equal-proportion interpolation. For a single index, the scoring interval is 0-100 points; if the above calculation result is a negative value, the result is recorded as 0. The dimensionless processing results are shown in table 6.
TABLE 6 Chinese 30 provincial energy system index dimensionless result table (2017)
And S4, multiplying the numerical value of the evaluation index subjected to non-dimensionalization processing by the corresponding index weight to obtain the score of a certain evaluation index, accumulating the scores of all the evaluation indexes to obtain the score of the energy system in the region to be measured, and quantitatively evaluating the energy system through the score of the energy system. The scores for the energy systems are shown in table 7.
TABLE 7 scoring table of 30 provinces energy system in China (2017)
| Nationwide | Beijing | Sichuan | Yunnan province | Guangdong (Chinese character of Guangdong) | Fujian tea | Tianjin | North of a lake | Zhejiang river | Chongqing | Jiangsu |
| 60.0 | 72.4 | 70.3 | 70.3 | 70.1 | 70.1 | 69.4 | 69.1 | 68.8 | 66.1 | 66.0 |
| Shanghai province | Guangxi province | Hunan province | Hainan province | Henan province | Shandong (mountain east) | (Jilin) | (Jiangxi) | (Anhui) | (Qinghai) | Guizhou province |
| 65.6 | 65.0 | 63.4 | 62.7 | 62.2 | 60.5 | 60.3 | 58.5 | 57.4 | 55.9 | 54.0 |
| Shaanxi province | Gansu | Hebei river | Heilongjiang | Liaoning medicine | Inner Mongolia | Xinjiang | Shanxi province | Ningxia | ||
| 51.8 | 45.0 | 44.7 | 44.0 | 43.5 | 41.7 | 39.0 | 36.0 | 26.9 |
As can be seen from Table 7, the southern provinces are superior to the northern provinces and the eastern provinces are superior to the western provinces in the overall evaluation. The five provinces before the whole scoring are Beijing, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangdong and Fujian, while Liaoning, inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shanxi and Ningxia are arranged in the last five places. The analysis of the itemized indexes of table 6 shows that the evaluation result of the energy consumption side is related to the industrial structures of all regions, and the energy consumption of unit GDP is obviously lower than the national level by developing the third industry and high and new manufacturing industries in Beijing, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other provinces. The evaluation results on the energy supply side are influenced by the intrinsic conditions of the energy supply side as well as the industrial structure. In areas rich in non-fossil resources, such as Yunnan, Sichuan and Qinghai, the structural proportion of the non-fossil energy in electric power and primary energy is improved by vigorously mining the local non-fossil resources; and Beijing is guided by policies, the occupation ratio of coal consumption is continuously reduced, external network power is actively introduced, and the occupation ratio of non-fossil energy in primary energy is improved on the premise of ensuring the safety of energy supply. In terms of the influence of an energy system on the environment, the carbon production average emission and the local pollutant emission of Beijing are far lower than the average level in China.
Example four
Based on the same inventive concept, the present embodiment discloses a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, the computer program being executed by a processor to implement the quantitative evaluation method of an energy system according to any one of the above.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims. The above description is only for the specific embodiments of the present application, but the scope of the present application is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art can easily conceive of the changes or substitutions within the technical scope of the present application, and shall be covered by the scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (10)
1. A quantitative evaluation method of an energy system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, determining a plurality of evaluation indexes according to the energy system, and determining the index weight by adopting an analytic hierarchy process;
s2, calculating the numerical value of the evaluation index according to the condition of the area to be measured;
s3 performing dimensionless processing on the numerical value of the evaluation index;
and S4, multiplying the numerical value of the evaluation index subjected to non-dimensionalization processing by the corresponding index weight to obtain the score of a certain evaluation index, accumulating the scores of all the evaluation indexes to obtain the score of the energy system in the region to be measured, and quantitatively evaluating the energy system through the score of the energy system.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the energy system comprises three criteria layers, which are: the evaluation indexes of the consumption side comprise: unit GDP energy consumption, energy consumption elastic coefficient of everyone non-material production department and electric power consumption ratio; the evaluation index on the supply side includes: the proportion of non-fossil energy to primary energy, the proportion of coal to primary energy and the proportion of non-fossil energy in electric power; the evaluation index of the externality includes: produce average CO2Annual emission and local average NOxAnnual emission and local average SO2Annual emission and ground-average annual emission of smoke dust.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the evaluation index includes a positive evaluation index whose score is higher as the value of the positive evaluation index is higher and a negative evaluation index whose score is lower as the value of the negative evaluation index is higher.
4. The method for quantitatively evaluating an energy system according to claim 1, wherein the method of determining the index weight in step S1 is:
s1.1, comparing the evaluation indexes pairwise, and rating according to the importance degree of the evaluation indexes, aijThe two results are the results of comparing the importance of the element i and the element j, and the matrix formed by the final two results is the judgment matrix A ═ a (a)ij)n×n；
S1.2, calculating a weight vector W and a characteristic root lambda of the judgment matrix A by adopting a geometric square root method;
s1.3, sorting the evaluation indexes of each layer according to the weight vector W and the characteristic root lambda of the judgment matrix A, and carrying out consistency check on each evaluation index;
s1.4, calculating the total weight of all the evaluation indexes of each layer, and carrying out consistency check on the evaluation indexes of the layers.
5. The method for quantitatively evaluating an energy system according to claim 4, wherein the calculation formulas of the weight vector W and the characteristic root λ of the determination matrix A in the step S1.2 are respectively:
wherein λ ismaxTo determine the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix, (AW)iRepresenting the ith element of the vector AW.
6. The method for quantitatively evaluating an energy system according to claim 4, wherein the method for checking the consistency of the evaluation index in the step S1.3 comprises: and calculating a consistency index CI, obtaining average random consistency RI, and calculating a consistency ratio CR which is CI/RI, wherein when CR is less than 0.10, the judgment matrix A is considered to have consistency, otherwise, the judgment matrix is corrected.
7. The quantitative evaluation method of an energy system according to claim 6, wherein the consistency index CI is calculated as follows:
wherein λ ismaxAnd n is the number of evaluation indexes for judging the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix.
8. The quantitative evaluation method of an energy system according to claim 1, wherein the formula of the non-dimensionalization process in S3 is:
the forward direction index is as follows:
negative direction index:
wherein: si,jThe percentile score result of the area j is shown for the index i; i isi,jIs the value of the I evaluation index of the region j, Ii, nationwideIs a national value of the i evaluation index.
9. A quantitative evaluation system for an energy system, comprising:
the weight calculation module is used for determining a plurality of evaluation indexes according to the energy system and determining the index weight by adopting an analytic hierarchy process;
the evaluation index module is used for calculating the numerical value of the evaluation index according to the condition of the area to be measured;
the non-dimensionalization module is used for carrying out non-dimensionalization processing on the numerical value of the evaluation index;
and the energy system score module is used for multiplying the numerical value of the evaluation index subjected to non-dimensionalization processing by the corresponding index weight to obtain the score of a certain evaluation index, accumulating the scores of all the evaluation indexes to obtain the score of the energy system in the region to be tested, and quantitatively evaluating the energy system through the score of the energy system.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer-readable storage medium has stored thereon a computer program which is executed by a processor to implement the method for quantitative evaluation of an energy system according to any one of claims 1 to 8.
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