CN112700159A - Method for establishing tourism circulation evaluation model of rural homestead - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for establishing a tourism circulation evaluation model of a rural homestead, which comprises the following steps: the method comprises the following steps of 1, determining the risk types of different main bodies in the tourism circulation process of the rural home base; further comprising: risk faced by farmers, risk faced by social capital, risk faced by village groups. Wherein, the risk that peasant household faces includes again specifically: (1) unfair risk of revenue distribution; (2) a risk of living; (3) a risk of living environment; (4) inadequate risk of policy awareness; (5) risk of social capital breach. According to the invention, the tourism circulation risks of the homestead are distinguished from different benefit subject perspectives, so that the subsequent refinement and study of the risks are facilitated; a risk matrix is constructed according to the risk influence degree and the risk occurrence probability, the risk of tourism circulation of the home is quantitatively evaluated, and then the key risk factors are accurately identified and controlled through sequencing, so that support can be provided for relevant policy measures for perfecting the use rights of the home circulation and the appropriate release home.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of rural homestead circulation, and particularly relates to a method for establishing a tourism circulation evaluation model of a rural homestead.
Background
The rural home base becomes a key system arrangement for supporting farmers to live in the music industry and maintaining long-term security of the rural areas for a long time. With the progress of urbanization and agricultural rural modernization, the existing home system is not suitable for the development of rural economy and society, and the call sound of the reform of the home system and the use right of living home is higher and higher. Because of the interests of hundreds of millions of farmers, the improvement of the home system always adheres to the judicious and stable advancing attitude, and the important status and the function of risk management and control in the evolution and transition process of the home system are revealed.
Rural tourism is an effective way for overall planning urban and rural development and implementing a rural happy strategy. According to the latest monitoring data of the rural part of agriculture, the number of visitors in leisure agriculture and village in 2019 exceeds 32 hundred million, the business income exceeds 8500 million yuan, and the wide development prospect is shown. Under the guidance and support of relevant policies, the development of rural tourism depending on the homesteads becomes an important means for checking the use right and asset functions of the homesteads and increasing the property income of farmers all over the country. Although the method of using the homestead for the related business activities of tourism is already common in some areas rich in tourism resources, with the improvement and implementation of the 'three-right split' reform of the homestead, the standard tourism circulation of the homestead is still at the starting stage, particularly, foreign social capital is introduced in the circulation modes of leasing, entering, cooperation and the like, new problems and potential risks may be brought by the appearance of new participating bodies in the circulation and subsequent development and operation processes of the homestead, and if the risks are not controlled and prevented, huge hidden dangers may be brought to the development and stability of the rural social economy and the rural lives.
At present, qualitative analysis methods based on typical cases are mainly adopted for evaluating the house circulation risk. According to the method, by questionnaire survey on a farmer level and analysis of a plurality of typical homestead circulation cases, qualitative study, judgment, induction and carding are carried out on the homestead circulation risks in the aspects of household economic risks, social security risks, decision participation risks, residence condition risks and the like, and corresponding precautionary countermeasures are provided according to various risk types.
The defects of the qualitative analysis method for the homestead circulation risk based on the typical case mainly comprise:
(1) the risk receptor focuses on the main body of the farmer, and the visual angle is single and not comprehensive enough. Risks are often personal and it is necessary to differentiate the risks according to the respective stakeholders of the homestead flow.
(2) The risk influence degree is large or small, the risk occurrence probability is high or low, and the key risk cannot be accurately identified and controlled through general qualitative analysis.
(3) The risk research and judgment of the typical case is regional and limited, and the reference and the applicability of other areas are further discussed and promoted.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the defects in the prior art and provides a method for establishing a tourism circulation evaluation model of a rural homestead.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the method for establishing the tourism circulation evaluation model of the rural homestead comprises the following steps:
step 1, determining the risk types of different main bodies in the tourism circulation process of the rural homestead;
the method mainly comprises the following steps: risk faced by farmers, risk faced by social capital, risk faced by village groups.
Wherein, the risk that peasant household faces includes again specifically:
(1) unfair risk of revenue distribution;
(2) a risk of living;
(3) a risk of living environment;
(4) inadequate risk of policy awareness;
(5) risk of social capital breach.
The risks faced by social capital include, among others:
(1) a project advancement risk;
(2) risk of operational management;
(3) risk of market instability;
(4) the default risk of farmers.
Wherein, the risk that village group faces includes specifically again:
(1) coordinating and managing risks;
(2) risk of rural social instability;
(3) the country feature disappears risk;
(4) risk of rural ecological destruction.
Step 2, constructing a risk matrix
Constructing a risk matrix from two dimensions of risk influence degree and risk occurrence probability so as to determine the level of risk;
a. and (3) taking the different kinds of risks in the step (1) as evaluation objects, and respectively assigning values from two dimensions of risk influence degree and risk occurrence probability. Wherein, the risk influence degree is sequentially assigned with 0 to 5 according to 'no influence', 'weak disadvantage', 'mild disadvantage', 'general disadvantage' and 'extreme disadvantage'; the risk occurrence probability is respectively assigned with 1 and 0 according to occurrence probability and non-occurrence probability;
b. and (4) assigning values to the variables, summing and averaging the values, and respectively determining the levels of the risk influence degree and the risk occurrence probability according to the following division standards. The risk influence degree grades are respectively determined as ' serious ', ' general ', ' small ' and ' small ' grades according to the intervals of (4,5 ', (3,4 ', (2,3 ',) (1, 2) and [0,1] and the like of the calculated mean values after being assigned according to the risk influence degree, and the risk occurrence probability grades are respectively determined as ' high ', ' general ', ' low ' and ' low ' grades according to the intervals of (0.9,1.0], (0.6,0.9], (0.4,0.6], (0.1, 0.4) and [0,0.1] and the like of the calculated mean values after being assigned according to the risk occurrence probability.
c. And finally determining the tourism and circulation risk level of the home base by combining the risk influence degree and the occurrence probability level in pairs.
Step 3. ordering of Risk types
By measuring and calculating the sequence values of the risk influence degree and the occurrence probability, the qualitative risk level is converted into the Borda number through calculation of the model, and the sequencing of all risks can be realized. The larger the Borda number, the smaller the Borda order value; the risk with the highest Borda number, with a Borda ranking of 0, indicates that this risk is the most critical of all risks. The calculation formula for the Borda number is as follows:
bi＝∑(N-Rik)
wherein, biBorda number representing risk i; n represents the total number of risks, since the present invention involves three different principals of interest, N is 5, 4, 4; k represents a certain criterion, namely k is 1 to represent the risk influence degree, and k is 2 to represent the risk occurrence probability; rikIndicating the ordinal value of risk i under criterion k. Ri1And Ri2The calculation method is the same, with Ri1For example, the calculation formula is as follows:
Ri1＝Ij＝Cj+(1+Mj)/2
where j represents the level of risk impact, i.e., j ═ {1,2,3,4,5} represents "very severe", "more severe", "generally", "less" and "very small", respectively; i isjA rank value representing the impact level of the jth risk; mjRepresenting the number of impact levels for the jth risk.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides a method for establishing a tourism circulation evaluation model of a rural homestead, which mainly has the following beneficial effects: (1) the risk of tourism circulation of the homestead is distinguished from the perspective of different benefit subjects, and subsequent refinement and study of the risk are facilitated. (2) According to the first-hand data obtained by questionnaire survey, a risk matrix is constructed through risk influence degree and risk occurrence probability, quantitative evaluation and verification are conducted on the tourism circulation risk of the homestead, and then through sequencing, accurate identification and control of key risk factors, display reference basis can be provided for relevant policy measures for perfecting homestead circulation and proper homestead use right.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the steps of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the technical solutions of the present invention are described below clearly and completely, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, not all embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention discloses a method for establishing a tourism circulation evaluation model of a rural homestead, which comprises the following steps:
1. tourism circulation risk research and judgment of homestead based on different interest subject visual angles
From the main subjects involved in the tourism circulation of the home base, the farmer, the social capital and the village group (village committee and group economic organization) are mainly available. Because the status and interest requirements of each participant in the circulation process are different, the risks of the participants are different.
(1) Risk faced by farmers
The risk of unfair income distribution is obtained. The tourism circulation of the homestead activates the asset income function of the homestead, and huge value-added space is brought along with the development of tourism activities. In fact, farmers often only obtain lower rent earnings, and although the dividend ratio is agreed by stock-entering or cooperative operation, value-added earnings created by tourism development are often not or completely enjoyed by farmers due to lack of professional knowledge and information asymmetry.
② the risk is accounted for. Although the existing homestead and farmhouse circulation programs clearly stipulate that relevant proof about the residents must be issued, the instability of the farmers in employment, economic income, social security and the like after the homestead is circulated remains a main factor threatening the survival of the farmers. Particularly, farmers usually circulate homesteads and contract places together, and although considerable income can be obtained in a short period of time, the subsequent accounting is subject to great uncertainty. Potential life risk makes farmers hesitate when facing homestead circulation decision, and increases time cost of communication coordination of all participants; what is more, too high compensation requirements are put forward accordingly, so that circulation is difficult to realize.
And thirdly, the risk of living environment. The living environment risks mainly occur to farmers who transfer home bases through centralized living, the new living environment is not as expected due to the inadaptation of the neighboring environment, the inadequate matching conditions of peripheral public services, the unmatched production facilities and the like, and the living environment risks form a larger psychological difference with the living environment of the single family in the previous single family.
Policy awareness of inadequate risk. Some rural famous hometown projects may involve multiple points, few farmers are hesitant to push the projects smoothly, under the pressure of a investor, a village committee and other farmers willing to circulate can repeatedly speak about the projects, the farmers blindly circulate the hometown flows under the condition that the policy program is not fully known, and the legitimate rights of the farmers cannot be effectively guaranteed.
Fifth, risk of social capital breach. The cost investment of travel development and operation activities is large, the return period is long, so the contract period of the contract is generally long, and the uncertainty is large. Particularly, loss and even closing are caused by various reasons in the operation process, and a sponsor is likely to be unable to pay the circulation fee on time and cause default, so that the benefits of farmers are damaged.
(2) Risk faced by social capital
The project advances risk. Except that farmers can not sign a circulation agreement in time, project approval procedures are complex and long, supplies of construction materials, labor force and the like are not timely, and installation of matched water, electricity, gas, networks and the like is slow, so that deviation of a project-propelled preset plan can be caused, business is difficult to operate according to the time, and great loss is caused to investors.
And risk of management and management. In the process of travel development, if no sales experience, market popularity and operation support exist, or even sufficient fund reserves are not reserved to a profit period, the risk of the whole travel project is very high. In addition, part of investors recover the cost as soon as possible, the number of recruited employees is limited, one employee has the functions of both facultative and multi-post, the labor intensity is high, the employee loss condition is serious, and the project operation is difficult to continue.
And risk of market instability. Nowadays, the tourism market in the countryside is hot, and the main body for carrying out tourism investment is also increasing day by day. Many people lack analysis on the essential connotation and market direction of the rural tourism, and are too optimistic and too high in expectation to grasp the target requirements of the customer source in the rural tourism industry. Under the background of developing rural tourism at disputes across the country, the passenger source is divided, many projects are uniform, the homogenization competition is serious, the residence time of tourists is short, the number of returning tourists is small, and the passenger flow volume is uncertain.
And fourthly, the default risk of the peasant household. Although a circulation protocol is signed, the policy and regulation of the circulation of the home base is not matched, especially the subsequent life of the farmer cannot be effectively guaranteed or the default is proposed unilaterally, so that the social investor is always relatively weak, and the operation activity of the investor is greatly stressed and burdened.
(3) Risk faced by village group
And (4) coordinating and managing risks. The entry of social capital increases the difficulty of village collective coordination management relative to the way acquaintance societies have previously managed. The method has the advantages that multiple parties coordinate and promote transactions before circulation, social capital is supervised and paid for circulation in time after circulation, subsequent travel development and operation activities are supervised, the management difficulty is high, and the situations that some illegal behaviors are unwilling to manage and dare to manage can occur.
② unstable risk of rural society. Under the large background of vigorous development of rural tourism, some villagers with strong economic strength can choose to operate and develop farmhouse entertainment, lodging and the like, while some non-abundant villagers can only obtain a little part of income of rural tourism in a circulation mode, so that the difference between poverty and wealth can be further widened; the inrush of a large number of tourists also has certain influence on local security management.
And thirdly, the country characteristics disappear risk. The characteristic disappearance of the villages is mainly caused by the invasion of modern life style of cities, under the drive of economic benefit, some tourism operators cater to the feeling of tourists at a glance, and reform the original rural residences into bars, KTVs and the like, thereby changing the characteristic culture of the villages and destroying the original local atmosphere and the rural landscape to a certain extent.
And fourthly, the ecological damage risk of the village. After the tourism atmosphere is formed, most local land can be used for tourism related activities, such as occupation of cultivated land or use of vacant land as a parking lot, and unbalance of a land utilization structure is caused; with the increase of tourists, domestic garbage also increases, sewage discharge is more random, and environmental pollution and damage of different degrees can be caused.
2. Construction of a Risk matrix
And constructing a risk matrix from two dimensions of risk influence degree and risk occurrence probability so as to determine the level of the risk. The method comprises the following specific steps:
(1) around the risk types, the cognition and the feeling of different beneficial agents on the self risks are known in a one-to-one mode of face-to-face communication, centralized seating and the like, and then the values are assigned to the related variables. Wherein, the risk influence degree is sequentially assigned with 0-5 according to 'no influence', 'weak disadvantage', 'mild disadvantage', 'general disadvantage' and 'extreme disadvantage', and the risk occurrence probability is assigned with 1 and 0 according to 'occurrence' and 'non-occurrence'.
(2) And (4) assigning values to the variables, summing and averaging the values, and respectively determining the risk influence degree and the level of risk occurrence probability according to the division standard in the table 1.
(3) Through the combination of the risk influence degree and the occurrence probability grade, the risk grade of the tourism circulation of the home base is finally determined, and is shown in the table 2.
TABLE 1 Risk impact degree and occurrence probability grading Standard for Tourisation circulation of Home
TABLE 2 Risk ranking for tourism circulation in home base
3. Ranking of risk types
After the risk matrix is determined, only a relatively intuitive risk level can be seen, but many risk nodes still exist, namely risk modules which have approximately the same attribute and can be continuously subdivided in the same risk level. The presence of risk knots can cause the ordering of risk factors to be difficult to perform efficiently, thereby failing to isolate the most critical risk. By measuring and calculating the sequence values of the risk influence degree and the occurrence probability, the qualitative risk level is converted into the Borda number through calculation of the model, and the sequencing of all risks can be realized. The larger the Borda number, the smaller the Borda order value; the risk with the highest Borda number, with a Borda ranking of 0, indicates that this risk is the most critical of all risks. The calculation formula for the Borda number is as follows:
bi＝∑(N-Rik)
wherein, biBorda number representing risk i; n represents the total number of risks, since the present invention involves three different principals of interest, N is 5, 4, 4; k represents a certain criterion, namely k is 1 to represent the risk influence degree, and k is 2 to represent the risk occurrence probability; rikIndicating the ordinal value of risk i under criterion k. Ri1And Ri2The calculation method is the same, with Ri1For example, the calculation formula is as follows:
Ri1＝Ij＝Cj+(1+Mj)/2
where j represents the level of risk impact, i.e., j ═ {1,2,3,4,5} represents "very severe", "more severe", "generally", "less" and "very small", respectively; i isjA rank value representing the impact level of the jth risk; mjRepresenting the number of impact levels for the jth risk.
1. Examples of the embodiments
Since the test area approved as comprehensive urban and rural mating reform in 2007, a series of land management system reform and innovation practices are carried out on the Sichuan province city and the city, and after the 'three-right split' of the homestead is proposed in 2018, exploration of appropriate released homesteads and the use rights of the farmhouses is successively carried out in partial district and county of the city. The Pi urban areas and the Qingbaijiang areas in suburban areas of Chengdu are typical areas for developing rural tourism by actively utilizing idle residential bases and idle rural houses by combining the reformation of the residential bases with the vogue of the rural areas, enabling the living guarantee to be parallel to the rural tourism, attracting the state of art, talents and creatures to go to the countryside and developing rural village residents, leisure and health care and the like by relying on the residential bases.
2. Data collection
During 7-10 months in 2019, the inventor and his team go to Pi city garden town Tuichun village, Youliouzhen village, rural village, Qinghe village, Jintaicun, Ande Zhen' an Longcun, Tangchang town Zugi village, Sandao Wei town Qingzhuishu village, Qingbaijiang Fuhong village, Chakucun village, progress village, Xinhua village and Xianfeng village to develop field investigation. Questionnaires were randomly issued 270 for 262 withdrawals with 97% recovery by means of centralized seating and interviews. The investigation objects mainly comprise farmers, investors and operation managers for tourism development depending on home bases, book notes of the main and subordinate villages of villages and committees and basic staff; research content in addition to the basic household situation of the farmer, the travel management development situation and the local development situation, the questionnaire content is designed around the risks that the different benefit agents may face as described above. The farmer questionnaire was collected 200 parts, and 124 parts (62%) were circulated for home tourism. Through sorting and analysis, the effective questionnaire is finally determined to be 124 parts of farmers, 42 parts of social capital and 20 parts of village collective, and the total is 186 parts.
3. Evaluation result of tourism circulation of homestead
According to the inventive method, the risk assessment results of tourism circulation of the home base under different subject viewing angles are obtained, as shown in table 3.
From the peasant household perspective: (1) the influence degree of the unfair risk of the profit distribution is serious, the risk occurrence probability is high, the risk level is high, and the risk distribution is the largest risk factor faced by the peasant household in the tourism circulation process of the home base. (2) The risk of living is also a main risk factor faced by the peasant household, the risk influence degree is serious, but the occurrence probability is low.
From a social capital perspective: (1) the influence of unstable risk in the market is serious, the occurrence probability is high, and the risk is the first risk factor faced by social capital; (2) the influence degree of the project propulsion risk is general, but the occurrence probability is high, so that the project propulsion risk becomes a main risk facing social capital; (3) although the influence degree of the default risk of the peasant household is serious and the risk level is high, the occurrence probability is low, and the prevention and the solution work are still needed to be done in advance.
From village collective perspective: (1) the influence of the village characteristic disappearance risk is serious, the occurrence probability is general, the risk level is high, and the risk is a key risk factor faced by villages collectively; (2) the influence of the risk of coordination management is serious, the occurrence probability is high, and the risk is one of main risks faced by village groups; (3) although the influence degree of the rural social unstable risk is serious and the risk level is high, the occurrence probability is general, and attention and vigilance still need to be aroused.
Table 3 risk assessment results of tourism circulation of the home base under different main body view angles
Finally, it should be noted that: the above examples are only intended to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, but not to limit it; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (4)
1. The method for establishing the tourism circulation evaluation model of the rural homestead is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, determining the risk types of different main bodies in the tourism circulation process of the rural homestead;
the method comprises the following steps: risk faced by farmers, risk faced by social capital, risk faced by village groups;
step 2, constructing a risk matrix
The method specifically comprises the following steps:
a. taking the different kinds of risks in the step 1 as evaluation objects, and assigning the evaluation objects from two dimensions of risk influence degree and risk occurrence probability respectively, wherein the risk influence degree is sequentially assigned by 0-5 according to 'no influence', 'weak disadvantage', 'slight disadvantage', 'general disadvantage' and 'extreme disadvantage'; the risk occurrence probability is respectively assigned with 1 and 0 according to occurrence probability and non-occurrence probability;
b. assigning values to variables, summing and averaging the values, and respectively determining the levels of risk influence degree and risk occurrence probability according to the following division standards, wherein the levels of the risk influence degree are respectively determined as 'very serious', 'relatively serious', 'common', 'smaller' and 'very small' in the intervals of (4,5], (3,4], (2,3], (1, 2) and [0,1] and the like according to the average values calculated after assigning values to the risk influence degree, and the levels of the risk occurrence probability are respectively determined as 'very high', 'relatively high', 'common', 'lower' and 'very low' in the intervals of (0.9,1.0], (0.6,0.9], (0.4,0.6], (0.1,0.4] and [0,0.1] and the like according to the average values calculated after assigning values to the risk occurrence probability;
c. finally determining the risk level of tourism circulation of the home base by combining the risk influence degree and the occurrence probability level in pairs;
step 3. ordering of Risk types
Specifically, a formula model is used for converting qualitative risk levels into Borda numbers by measuring and calculating sequence values of risk influence degrees and occurrence probabilities, so that the ranking of all risks is realized, wherein the larger the Borda number is, the smaller the Borda sequence value is; the risk with the highest Borda number, with a Borda rank of 0, indicates that this risk is the most critical of all risks, and the calculation formula for the Borda number is as follows:
bi＝∑(N-Rik)
wherein, biBorda number representing risk i; n represents the total number of risks, and since three different principals of interest are involved, N is 5, 4, 4; k represents a certain criterion, namely k is 1 to represent the risk influence degree, and k is 2 to represent the risk occurrence probability; rikOrder value, R, representing risk i under criterion ki1And Ri2The calculation method is the same, with Ri1For example, the calculation formula is as follows:
Ri1＝Ij＝Cj+(1+Mj)/2
where j represents the level of risk impact, i.e., j ═ {1,2,3,4,5} represents "very severe", "more severe", "generally", "less" and "very small", respectively; i isjA rank value representing the impact level of the jth risk; mjRepresenting the number of impact levels for the jth risk.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the risk faced by the farmer further comprises:
(1) unfair risk of revenue distribution;
(2) a risk of living;
(3) a risk of living environment;
(4) inadequate risk of policy awareness;
(5) risk of social capital breach.
3. The method for establishing the tourism circulation assessment model for the rural homestead according to claim 1, wherein the risks faced by social capital further comprise:
(1) a project advancement risk;
(2) risk of operational management;
(3) risk of market instability;
(4) the default risk of farmers.
4. The method for establishing the tourism circulation assessment model of the rural homestead as claimed in claim 1, wherein the risk faced by the village group further comprises:
(1) coordinating and managing risks;
(2) risk of rural social instability;
(3) the country feature disappears risk;
(4) risk of rural ecological destruction.
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| CN114016768A (en) * | 2021-11-22 | 2022-02-08 | 陕西科技大学 | Rural village dwelling environment improvement and reconstruction method |
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