CN112686706A - Multi-parameter-based ship shipping cost estimation method - Google Patents
Multi-parameter-based ship shipping cost estimation method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of shipping cost calculation, in particular to a multi-parameter-based ship shipping cost estimation method, which is used for estimating and calculating ship shipping cost according to self state data of a ship and relevant data of a route on a shipping route. The method specifically comprises the following steps: s1: acquiring self state data of the ship in the current shipping; s2: estimating and calculating to generate a shipping route according to the starting point position data and the end point position data of the current shipping, and acquiring relevant data of a route on the shipping route; s3: and inputting the state data of the ship and the relevant data of the air route into a set cost estimation model, generating the ship shipping cost of the current shipping through estimation and calculation of the cost estimation model, and displaying the estimated ship shipping cost information. The ship shipping cost calculation method can accurately predict the ship shipping cost and can finish prediction before shipping begins, so that the management effect of ship shipping can be improved in an auxiliary mode.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of shipping cost calculation, in particular to a multi-parameter-based ship shipping cost estimation method.
Background
With the continuous and steady increase of the freight volume, the requirement of the shipping quality of ships is continuously improved and the economic globalization is further developed, and meanwhile, in the knowledge and economy age which is mainly characterized by the advanced development of information technology, the modernization of the information system of the shipping industry becomes an important market competition means and core competition capability. In order to improve the utilization rate of ship shipping resources and the competitive capacity of enterprises, the information management system of the ship shipping enterprises must be capable of adapting to various continuous business operations, so that the application of the information system becomes a key measure for reducing the management cost, improving the service level and enhancing the competitive advantage of the ship shipping companies.
Therefore, more and more shipping enterprises need to own their own systems for comprehensive management of daily business, and calculation of shipping cost is the core of the whole management system. The profit and loss of each voyage of the company can be calculated through the calculation of the cost, the accuracy of the bill is strictly controlled, the timeliness of the payment and receipt of the account of the company is ensured, and the method is an important basis for the leadership to make a decision on the next plan. For example, chinese patent publication No. CN101187997A discloses a method for managing audit trail and verification information of a branch-line shipping information management system, which includes: calculating all expenses to be collected in a voyage, namely shipping cost, additional cost and commission to be collected, and making out an invoice after the expenses to be collected are calculated and verified; due to the following: calculating the expenses due to the voyage, namely cabin buying, tank paying, ship renting, fuel fresh water, ship service fee, cargo service fee, commission paying, extra fee and payment fee; generating a profit and loss table of voyage times; checking the estimated charge due in the system, confirming or splitting the operation, and generating a payment notice after the operation is finished.
The method for managing the approval verification information in the conventional scheme is also a shipping cost calculation method, and calculates shipping costs (payable costs) such as ship rent, fuel and fresh water fees, ship service fees and the like, thereby completing the calculation of the shipping costs. However, the calculation method in the above prior art needs to record the shipping cost of each ship during shipping, then to calculate all the costs of the shipping after shipping is finished, and to calculate the shipping cost of the ship by accumulating the costs. That is, the existing shipping cost calculation method can only calculate the shipping cost of the ship after the shipping is finished, but cannot predict the shipping cost of the ship before the shipping is started, that is, the shipping enterprises cannot estimate profit and loss in advance, so that the management effect of the shipping of the ship is poor. Therefore, the applicant thinks of designing a ship shipping cost estimation method capable of realizing shipping cost estimation before shipping is started so as to assist in improving the management effect of ship shipping.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the technical problems to be solved by the invention are as follows: how to provide a ship shipping cost estimation method which can accurately estimate the ship shipping cost and can finish estimation before shipping begins, so that the management effect of ship shipping can be improved in an auxiliary mode.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a multi-parameter-based ship shipping cost prediction method is characterized in that ship shipping cost is obtained through prediction calculation according to self state data of a ship and relevant data of a route on a shipping route, and predicted ship shipping cost information is displayed.
Preferably, the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s1: acquiring self state data of the ship in the current shipping;
s2: estimating and calculating to generate a shipping route according to the starting point position data and the end point position data of the current shipping, and acquiring relevant data of a route on the shipping route;
s3: and inputting the state data of the ship and the relevant data of the air route into a set cost estimation model, generating the ship shipping cost of the current shipping through estimation and calculation of the cost estimation model, and displaying the estimated ship shipping cost information.
Preferably, in step S1, the ship self-state data includes a ship load, a ship crew, and a ship depreciation rate.
Preferably, in step S2, the route-related data includes route distance, route leg, route average speed limit, and route heading.
Preferably, in step S3, the cost estimation model estimates and calculates the shipping cost of the ship by the following formula:
C＝a1λ1+a2λ2+a3λ3+a4λ4+a5λ5+a6λ6+a7λ7in the formula, λ1And a1Respectively representing the ship load and the coefficient thereof; lambda [ alpha ]2And a2Respectively representing the ship crew and the coefficients thereof; lambda [ alpha ]3And a3Respectively representing the ship depreciation rate and the coefficient thereof; lambda [ alpha ]4And a4Respectively representing the route distance and the coefficient thereof; lambda [ alpha ]5And a5Respectively representing the flight path sections and coefficients thereof; lambda [ alpha ]6And a6Respectively representing the average speed limit of the air route and the coefficient thereof; lambda [ alpha ]7And a7Respectively representing the course heading and its coefficients.
Preferably, the coefficient a1～a7All are obtained by historical data calibration.
Preferably, the cost prediction model predicts and calculates the shipping speed of the ship according to the average speed limit of the air route and the course of the air route, then predicts and calculates the average oil consumption of the ship according to the shipping speed and the ship load, and finally predicts and calculates the shipping fuel cost according to the average oil consumption of the ship and the distance of the air route.
Preferably, the cost prediction model predicts and calculates the shipping speed of the ship according to the average speed limit of the air route and the course of the air route, then predicts and calculates the shipping time according to the shipping speed and the distance of the air route, and finally predicts and calculates the ship depreciation cost according to the shipping time and the ship depreciation rate.
Preferably, the cost prediction model calculates the position of the shipping stop point according to the route distance and the route section prediction, and then calculates the shipping stop cost according to the position of the shipping stop point and the corresponding cost prediction.
Preferably, the cost prediction model obtains the shipping service cost through prediction calculation according to the ship crew and the corresponding cost.
Compared with the prior art, the shipping cost calculation method has the following advantages:
in the actual calculation process, the ship shipping cost is estimated and calculated through the ship self state data and the air route related data, and the ship load, the ship crew and the ship depreciation rate of the ship self state data, and the air route distance, the air route flight segment, the air route average speed limit, the air route course and other parameters of the air route related data are all key parameters influencing the ship shipping cost. Secondly, the ship shipping cost is estimated and calculated only by acquiring the state data of the ship and the relevant data of the air route, and the parameters can be acquired before the shipping is started, so that the estimation of the ship shipping cost can be realized before the shipping is started, and the management effect of the ship shipping can be assisted and improved. Furthermore, the ship self-state data and the relevant data of the air route are input into the cost estimation model, so that the ship shipping cost can be estimated, calculated and generated and displayed.
Drawings
For purposes of promoting a better understanding of the objects, aspects and advantages of the invention, reference will now be made in detail to the present invention as illustrated in the accompanying drawings, in which:
FIG. 1 is a logic block diagram of a ship shipping cost estimation method in an embodiment.
Detailed Description
The following is further detailed by the specific embodiments:
example (b):
the embodiment of the invention discloses a ship shipping cost estimation method based on multiple parameters.
A multi-parameter-based ship shipping cost prediction method comprises the steps of obtaining ship shipping cost through prediction calculation according to self state data of a ship and relevant data of a route on a shipping route, and displaying predicted ship shipping cost information. As shown in fig. 1, the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s1: acquiring self state data of the ship in the current shipping; the ship self state data comprises ship load, ship crew and ship depreciation rate.
S2: estimating and calculating to generate a shipping route according to the starting point position data and the end point position data of the current shipping, and acquiring relevant data of a route on the shipping route; the relevant data of the air route comprises air route distance, air route sections, air route average speed limit and air route heading.
S3: and inputting the state data of the ship and the relevant data of the air route into a set cost estimation model, generating the ship shipping cost of the current shipping through estimation and calculation of the cost estimation model, and displaying the estimated ship shipping cost information.
In the actual calculation process, the ship shipping cost is estimated and calculated through the ship self state data and the air route related data, and the ship load, the ship crew and the ship depreciation rate of the ship self state data, and the air route distance, the air route flight segment, the air route average speed limit, the air route course and other parameters of the air route related data are all key parameters influencing the ship shipping cost. Secondly, the ship shipping cost is estimated and calculated only by acquiring the state data of the ship and the relevant data of the air route, and the parameters can be acquired before the shipping is started, so that the estimation of the ship shipping cost can be realized before the shipping is started, and the management effect of the ship shipping can be assisted and improved. Furthermore, the ship self-state data and the relevant data of the air route are input into the cost estimation model, so that the ship shipping cost can be estimated, calculated and generated and displayed.
In a specific implementation process, in step S3, the cost estimation model estimates and calculates the shipping cost of the ship by the following formula:
C＝a1λ1+a2λ2+a3λ3+a4λ4+a5λ5+a6λ6+a7λ7in the formula, λ1And a1Respectively representing the ship load and the coefficient thereof; lambda [ alpha ]2And a2Respectively representing the ship crew and the coefficients thereof; lambda [ alpha ]3And a3Respectively representing the ship depreciation rate and the coefficient thereof; lambda [ alpha ]4And a4Respectively representCourse distance and its coefficient; lambda [ alpha ]5And a5Respectively representing the flight path sections and coefficients thereof; lambda [ alpha ]6And a6Respectively representing the average speed limit of the air route and the coefficient thereof; lambda [ alpha ]7And a7Respectively representing the course heading and its coefficients.
In the invention, the cost pre-estimation model pre-estimates and calculates the shipping cost of the ship through the formula, namely the pre-estimation model realizes the pre-estimation calculation of the shipping cost of the ship through the comprehensive calculation of parameters such as the ship load, ship crew and ship depreciation rate of the state data of the ship, the route distance, route section, route average speed limit, route course and the like of the relevant data of the route, thereby accurately pre-estimating and obtaining the shipping cost of the ship; compared with manual calculation, the pre-estimation calculation mode has the advantages of high pre-estimation calculation efficiency and good pre-estimation accuracy. In this embodiment, the coefficient a1～a7The method is calibrated by historical data, such as:
first, the following settings are made: 1) let the weight of the ship load be λ1Ten thousand tons; 2) recording the number of ship crews as lambda210 pieces of; 3) recording ship depreciation rate as lambda310% of the total weight; 4) recording course distance as λ410 km; 5) marking the course flight segment as lambda5A segment; 6) recording average speed limit of route as lambda610 km/h; 7) recording course of course as λ71 ═ forward flow, λ72-counterflow; 8) the ship shipping cost is recorded as C ten thousand yuan.
Then, at least one time of history data, namely at least seven lambdas, is obtained1～λ7And its corresponding C.
Finally, the obtained lambda1～λ7And the corresponding C is substituted into the formula C ═ a1λ1+a2λ2+a3λ3+a4λ4+a5λ5+a6λ6+a7λ7In (1), the coefficients a are respectively calculated1～a7And obtaining a pre-estimation calculation formula of the cost pre-estimation model.
In the specific implementation process, the cost prediction model predicts and calculates the shipping speed of the ship according to the average speed limit of the air route and the course of the air route, then predicts and calculates the average oil consumption of the ship according to the shipping speed and the ship load, and finally predicts and calculates the shipping fuel cost according to the average oil consumption of the ship and the distance of the air route.
Shipping fuel costs are one of the major costs of shipping (fuel) ships, as each shipment requires the consumption of a large amount of fuel. In the process of estimating and calculating the shipping fuel cost, the shipping speed is calculated through the average speed limit of the air route and the course pre-estimation of the air route, then the average fuel consumption of the ship in the process of shipping is calculated according to the shipping speed and the ship load pre-estimation, and finally the shipping fuel cost is estimated and calculated according to the average fuel consumption of the ship and the air route distance. In the invention, each parameter for estimating and calculating the shipping fuel cost is an important parameter influencing the shipping fuel cost, wherein: 1) the average speed limit of the course defines the highest shipping speed of the shipping of the ship, and the course is the 'downstream' or 'upstream' considering the shipping, so the two parameters can determine the shipping speed of the ship to a certain extent; 2) the consumption of the fuel oil has a corresponding curve relation with the shipping speed and the weight-average load of the ship, so that the two parameters can determine the average oil consumption of the ship to a certain extent; 3) the combination of average ship fuel consumption and course distance corresponds to the shipping fuel cost.
In the specific implementation process, the cost pre-estimation model pre-estimates and calculates the shipping speed of the ship according to the average speed limit of the air route and the course of the air route, then pre-estimates and calculates the shipping time length according to the shipping speed and the distance of the air route, and finally pre-estimates and calculates the ship depreciation cost according to the shipping time length and the ship depreciation rate.
Ship depreciation costs are one of the main costs of shipping a ship, as each shipment is a cost per ship, which makes the ship closer to scrapping, thereby changing the remaining value of the ship. In the invention, each parameter for predicting and calculating ship depreciation cost is an important parameter influencing the ship depreciation cost, wherein: 1) the average speed limit of the course defines the highest shipping speed of the shipping of the ship, and the course is the 'downstream' or 'upstream' considering the shipping, so the two parameters can determine the shipping speed of the ship to a certain extent; 2) the combination of the shipping speed and the route distance corresponds to the shipping time length; 3) the duration of the shipping is the most important factor influencing the ship depreciation rate, so the ship depreciation cost can be well estimated and calculated through the combination of the duration of the shipping and the ship depreciation rate.
In the specific implementation process, the cost prediction model calculates the position of an shipping stop point according to the route distance and the route section prediction, and then calculates the shipping stop cost according to the position of the shipping stop point and the corresponding cost prediction.
The shipping berthing fee is one of the primary fees for the shipping cost of the vessel because the berthing fee is paid at the shipping berthing points. In the invention, each parameter for pre-estimating and calculating the shipping and parking cost of the ship is an important parameter influencing the shipping and parking cost, and the position of the parking point and the parking cost of the current shipping can be obtained by inquiring the distance and the section of the airline, so that the shipping and parking cost can be well pre-estimated and calculated according to the position of the parking point and the parking cost.
In the specific implementation process, the cost pre-estimation model pre-estimates and calculates the shipping service cost according to the ship crew and the corresponding cost thereof.
Shipping service costs are one of the major costs of shipping a ship, and each crew (ship crew) in the shipping process needs to pay. In the invention, each parameter for predicting and calculating the shipping service cost is an important parameter influencing the shipping service cost, and the shipping service cost can be well predicted and calculated by inquiring the ship crew and corresponding wages thereof.
The foregoing is merely an example of the present invention, and common general knowledge in the field of known specific structures and characteristics is not described herein in any greater extent than that known in the art at the filing date or prior to the priority date of the application, so that those skilled in the art can now appreciate that all of the above-described techniques in this field and have the ability to apply routine experimentation before this date can be combined with one or more of the present teachings to complete and implement the present invention, and that certain typical known structures or known methods do not pose any impediments to the implementation of the present invention by those skilled in the art. It should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, without departing from the structure of the present invention, several changes and modifications can be made, which should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention, and these will not affect the effect of the implementation of the present invention and the practicability of the patent. The scope of the claims of the present application shall be determined by the contents of the claims, and the description of the embodiments and the like in the specification shall be used to explain the contents of the claims.
Claims (10)
1. A ship shipping cost prediction method based on multiple parameters is characterized by comprising the following steps: and carrying out prediction calculation according to the self state data of the ship and the relevant data of the air route on the shipping route to obtain the shipping cost of the ship, and displaying the predicted shipping cost information of the ship.
2. The multi-parameter-based ship shipping cost estimation method of claim 1, comprising the following steps:
s1: acquiring self state data of the ship in the current shipping;
s2: estimating and calculating to generate a shipping route according to the starting point position data and the end point position data of the current shipping, and acquiring relevant data of a route on the shipping route;
s3: and inputting the state data of the ship and the relevant data of the air route into a set cost estimation model, generating the ship shipping cost of the current shipping through estimation and calculation of the cost estimation model, and displaying the estimated ship shipping cost information.
3. The multi-parameter based ship shipping cost estimation method of claim 2, wherein: in step S1, the ship self-state data includes the ship load, the ship crew, and the ship depreciation rate.
4. The multi-parameter based ship shipping cost estimation method of claim 3, wherein: in step S2, the course related data includes course distance, course leg, course average speed limit, and course heading.
5. The multi-parameter based ship shipping cost estimation method of claim 4, wherein: in step S3, the cost estimation model estimates and calculates the shipping cost of the ship by the following formula:
C＝a1λ1+a2λ2+a3λ3+a4λ4+a5λ5+a6λ6+a7λ7in the formula, λ1And a1Respectively representing the ship load and the coefficient thereof; lambda [ alpha ]2And a2Respectively representing the ship crew and the coefficients thereof; lambda [ alpha ]3And a3Respectively representing the ship depreciation rate and the coefficient thereof; lambda [ alpha ]4And a4Respectively representing the route distance and the coefficient thereof; lambda [ alpha ]5And a5Respectively representing the flight path sections and coefficients thereof; lambda [ alpha ]6And a6Respectively representing the average speed limit of the air route and the coefficient thereof; lambda [ alpha ]7And a7Respectively representing the course heading and its coefficients.
6. The multi-parameter based ship shipping cost estimation method of claim 5, wherein: coefficient a1～a7All are obtained by historical data calibration.
7. The multi-parameter based ship shipping cost estimation method of claim 4, wherein: the cost prediction model predicts and calculates the shipping speed of the ship according to the average speed limit of the air route and the course of the air route, then predicts and calculates the average oil consumption of the ship according to the shipping speed and the ship load, and finally predicts and calculates the shipping fuel cost according to the average oil consumption of the ship and the distance of the air route.
8. The multi-parameter based ship shipping cost estimation method of claim 4, wherein: the cost pre-estimation model pre-estimates and calculates the shipping speed of the ship according to the average speed limit of the ship route and the ship route course, then pre-estimates and calculates the shipping time length according to the shipping speed and the ship route distance, and finally pre-estimates and calculates the ship depreciation cost according to the shipping time length and the ship depreciation rate.
9. The multi-parameter based ship shipping cost estimation method of claim 4, wherein: and the cost prediction model calculates the position of an shipping berth point according to the distance of the air route and the air route section prediction, and then calculates the shipping berth expense according to the position of the shipping berth point and the expense corresponding to the position.
10. The multi-parameter based ship shipping cost estimation method of claim 4, wherein: and the cost pre-estimation model pre-estimates and calculates the shipping service cost according to the ship crew and the corresponding cost thereof.
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