CN112633718A - Emergency material grading method for public health emergency based on evidence reasoning - Google Patents

Emergency material grading method for public health emergency based on evidence reasoning Download PDF

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CN112633718A
CN112633718A CN202011583527.3A CN202011583527A CN112633718A CN 112633718 A CN112633718 A CN 112633718A CN 202011583527 A CN202011583527 A CN 202011583527A CN 112633718 A CN112633718 A CN 112633718A
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杨帅
张传开
未建青
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Abstract

The invention relates to an emergency material grading method for public health emergencies based on evidence reasoning, and belongs to the technical field of emergency material grading. Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme provided by the invention has the advantages that the consideration of inconsistent decision-making conflicts of decision-making persons is increased, the evidence synthesis with conflicts is normalized, the emergency material requirement level is scientifically determined through the evidence theoretical model, and the problem of low decision-making judgment reliability caused by different knowledge backgrounds, working experiences and the like of the decision-making persons is solved.

Description

Emergency material grading method for public health emergency based on evidence reasoning
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of emergency material grading, and particularly relates to a public health emergency material grading method based on evidence reasoning.
Background
With the increasing frequency and the increasing damage degree of public health emergencies, emergency material management is becoming an important research field in public health incident emergency management research. In order to enable limited emergency resources to be applied most effectively and reasonably in emergency management, a decision maker needs to perform scientific classified management on emergency materials according to the situation of emergency requirements of public health events, and then perform differentiated key hierarchical management according to the positions and the functions of different types of emergency materials in emergency management. Obviously, the emergency materials with lower demand level should be purchased, stored and dispatched with lower priority than the emergency materials with higher demand level. The emergency requirement of the public health event requires the important management of the emergency materials with high requirement level, and only general management of the emergency materials with low requirement level. Therefore, the emergency material logistics wood forming can be effectively reduced, and the effect of subsequent emergency rescue work is directly determined.
The current grading of the demand of emergency materials facing to the unconventional emergencies mainly depends on the intuition and the experience judgment of decision makers. Obviously, the method for determining the regional emergency material demand level through subjective judgment has strong subjectivity and randomness, and the demand degree of emergency demand materials is difficult to reflect really. Therefore, the problem of research on the regional emergency material requirement level by using a quantitative analysis method has attracted the attention of experts and scholars at home and abroad, the currently adopted quantitative research methods mainly comprise fuzzy cluster analysis, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods and the like, and most of the research methods use the traditional probability statistical method for decision making.
Although the probabilistic statistical method can reflect the uncertainty of the real-world random characteristics, the uncertainty caused by incomplete information, system complexity and ambiguity of human cognition is not considered, so the demand classification methods based on probability theory, whether based on fact data or the experience of a decision maker, are developed by establishing on a certain assumption basis (such as the assumption decision maker fully knows the value of the preference information of the emergency materials, fully obtains the data and the like).
Due to the obvious unusual characteristics of rarity, dynamics, complexity, uncertainty, unpredictability, uncontrollable property, serious social panic and crisis and the like of the unconventional emergency, when a decision maker decides the grading of the material demand, the decision maker is difficult to judge the emergency material demand grade by using accurate data and is often more easily given in the form of language phrases.
Disclosure of Invention
Technical problem to be solved
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is as follows: how to design a method for solving the problem of grading the emergency material requirements of public health events.
(II) technical scheme
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention provides a public health emergency material grading method based on evidence reasoning, which comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: designing grading influence factors of emergency material demands and constructing a corresponding index system, and dividing grading indexes of the emergency materials into a first grade and a second grade, wherein the first grade influence index factors comprise three aspects of emergency material importance, emergency material availability and emergency material timeliness, and the second grade indexes of the emergency material importance comprise emergency effect influence degree, irreplaceability degree and material shortage loss degree; the secondary indexes of the availability of the emergency materials comprise the shortage degree of the emergency materials, the purchasing difficulty degree of the materials, the social supply capacity and the allocation difficulty degree; secondary indexes of the timeliness of the emergency materials comprise material quality guarantee and demand urgency;
step two: dividing the emergency material demand into five demand levels of urgent demand, more urgent demand, general demand and temporary demand according to the importance degree, assigning values between the levels of the emergency material demand from high to low [0, l ], taking 0.85-1 as I-level urgent demand, 0.70-0.85 as II-level urgent demand, 0.55-0.70 as III-level urgent demand, 0.40-0.55 as general demand and 0-0.40 as temporary demand;
step three: constructing a basic probability distribution function (BPAF) based on the second step;
step four: based on the third step, the preference evidence information of the emergency material demand level given by the kth decision maker under the ith secondary index is synthesized;
step five: based on the fourth step, each primary index Y is subjected tojSynthesizing the demand level preference evidence information of the emergency materials, wherein j is 1,2, … and N; n is an integer;
step six: based on step five, all YjSynthesizing the evaluation information of the demand level of the emergency materials in the lower region, and then calculating the total confidence of the demand level of the emergency materials;
step seven: and calculating and evaluating the total evaluation value based on the sixth step.
(III) advantageous effects
The method comprises the steps of judging the emergency material demand level of a public health event, analyzing the influence factors of the emergency material demand level, and giving out the factors which need to be considered for determining the emergency material demand level; assigning values to the decision credibility of each decision maker according to the knowledge background and the working experience of the decision maker; and after the decision maker scores the secondary indexes, obtaining the grading comprehensive score of the emergency material demand through an evidence reasoning model, and finally determining the grade of the emergency material demand so as to provide powerful support for subsequent emergency material resource scheduling. Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme provided by the invention has the advantages that the consideration of inconsistent decision-making conflicts of decision-making persons is increased, the evidence synthesis with conflicts is normalized, the emergency material requirement level is scientifically determined through the evidence theoretical model, and the problem of low decision-making judgment reliability caused by different knowledge backgrounds, working experiences and the like of the decision-making persons is solved.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, contents, and advantages of the present invention clearer, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and examples.
The invention provides a method for solving the problem of grading the emergency material demand of a public health incident, which comprises the steps of designing the grading influence factors of the emergency material demand and constructing a corresponding index system according to the situation of the public health incident, and setting corresponding weight according to the identity of a decision maker, thereby avoiding decision errors caused by subjective judgment of the decision maker.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for grading the demand of emergency supplies provided by the present invention comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of designing grading influence factors of emergency material demands and constructing a corresponding index system, wherein grading indexes of the emergency materials are divided into a first grade and a second grade, the first grade influence index factors comprise three aspects of emergency material importance, emergency material availability and emergency material timeliness, the second grade indexes corresponding to the first grade indexes are shown in table 1, and the second grade indexes of the emergency material importance comprise emergency effect influence degree, non-substitutability degree and material shortage loss degree; the secondary indexes of the availability of the emergency materials comprise the shortage degree of the emergency materials, the purchasing difficulty degree of the materials, the social supply capacity and the allocation difficulty degree; secondary indexes of the timeliness of the emergency materials comprise material quality guarantee and demand urgency;
TABLE 1 Emergency Material requirements
Figure BDA0002866429940000041
Figure BDA0002866429940000051
Figure BDA0002866429940000061
Step two: dividing the emergency material demand into five demand levels of urgent demand (level I), urgent demand (level II), more urgent demand (level III), general demand (level IV) and temporary demand (level V) according to the importance degree, assigning values between the levels of the emergency material demand from high to low [0, l ], taking 0.85-1 as the level I urgent demand, 0.70-0.85 as the level II urgent demand, 0.55-0.70 as the level III as the more urgent demand, 0.40-0.55 as the general demand and 0-0.40 as the temporary demand.
Step three: and constructing a basic probability distribution function (BPAF) based on the step two. Firstly, a decision maker sets the requirement level index X of the emergency materials in the affected area as X1,……，XM}(XiThat (i-1, …, M) indicates the i-th primary index) is regarded as proof in the D-S theory, and the evaluation level H is { H ═ HnN is 1, … … 5} (of particular importance (H)1) Important (H)2) Of greater importance (H)3) Of general importance (H)4) Is not important (H)5) Viewed as in D-S theoryA frame is identified. Is provided with
Figure BDA0002866429940000062
Is a BPAF which represents dkAt index XiThe requirement level of the emergency materials in the lower judgment area is HnTo the extent that (a) is present,
Figure BDA0002866429940000063
denotes dkBPAF, which cannot evaluate the level of demand for emergency supplies, then:
Figure BDA0002866429940000064
Figure BDA0002866429940000071
Figure BDA0002866429940000072
Figure BDA0002866429940000073
here, dkThe confidence level (0) of the decision maker k corresponding to the judgment result of the level of the demand of the emergency material<dk<1, when d iskWhen the judgment result is 1, the decision maker k is represented to give 100% credibility; when d iskWhen 0, it means that the kth decision maker gives a judgment result which is not reliable at all), ω)iIndex X given by the decision makeriWeight (ω)i≥0,∑ωi＝1)，βi(Hn) The index X of the decision maker k to the A emergency materialiUpper rating of HnDegree of confidence (β) ofi(Hn) The greater the value, the greater its confidence level);
Figure BDA0002866429940000074
indication of the consideration indexThe known judgment of the emergency materials in the area A under the weight and the reliability of the decision maker,
Figure BDA0002866429940000075
representing the unknown judgment of the demand level of the emergency materials in the area A under the consideration of index weight and the credibility of a decision maker, wherein
Figure BDA0002866429940000076
The unknown judgment formed by the index weight and the reliability of the decision maker when the decision is made on the requirement level of the emergency material A,
Figure BDA0002866429940000077
and the unknown judgment in the process of making a decision on the requirement level of the emergency materials is shown.
Step four: and based on the third step, synthesizing the preference evidence information of the emergency material demand level given by k decision makers under the index i. For k deciders at the index iBPAF
Figure BDA0002866429940000078
Figure BDA0002866429940000079
Synthesizing the values to obtain m of BPAF under different indexesi(Hn)、
Figure BDA00028664299400000710
mi(H) Namely:
Figure BDA00028664299400000711
Figure BDA00028664299400000712
Figure BDA0002866429940000081
Figure BDA0002866429940000082
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0002866429940000083
step five: based on the fourth step, for each YjAnd (j) synthesizing the preference evidence information of the demand level of the emergency supplies under (1, 2, …, N). For different YjAnd (j) synthesizing the evidence information under (1, 2, …, N) to obtain the confidence degrees under different evaluation levels of the emergency material demand levels. Namely:
Figure BDA0002866429940000084
Figure BDA0002866429940000085
Figure BDA0002866429940000086
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0002866429940000087
Figure BDA0002866429940000088
step six: based on step five, all YjAnd (j ═ 1,2, …, N) lower area emergency material demand level evaluation information is synthesized, and then the total confidence of the emergency material demand level is calculated. According to Yj(j ═ 1,2, …, N) weight and D-S theoretical reasoning model and algorithm, synthesizing the evidence information under all the factor index systems affecting the demand level of the emergency materials, and calculating the total confidence of the demand level of the emergency materials, namely:
mj(Hn)＝ωjmi(Hn)
Figure BDA0002866429940000091
Figure BDA0002866429940000092
Figure BDA0002866429940000093
Figure BDA0002866429940000094
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0002866429940000095
Figure BDA0002866429940000096
wherein beta isn(A) The requirement level of the emergency material A is represented as H under the total indexnConfidence level of the grade, andH(A) an assigned value of unknown degree is indicated.
Step seven: and calculating and evaluating the total evaluation value based on the sixth step. The confidence degree of the judgment of the A area emergency material demand level is composed of a determined information value and an unknown information value, and the evaluation of a decision maker on the A area emergency material demand level can be represented by a confidence interval, namely [ a ]w,bw]。awMinimum trust value representing the level of emergency material demand of decision maker A, bwMaximum confidence value representing the level of demand of the decision maker for the asset A, bw-awThe larger the value, the higher the uncertainty that the decision maker gives the evaluation result. Convenient for evaluationAccording to the invention, values are assigned to each evaluation grade according to the interval values of 5 grades of emergency material demands, namely:
P(H1)＝0.90,P(H2)＝0.725,P(H3)＝0.555,P(H4)＝0.475,P(H5)＝0.00
and obtaining the grading comprehensive score of the emergency material demand according to the evidence reasoning model, and determining the grade of the emergency material demand. Namely:
Figure BDA0002866429940000101
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0002866429940000102
Figure BDA0002866429940000103
the above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, several modifications and variations can be made without departing from the technical principle of the present invention, and these modifications and variations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. A public health emergency material grading method based on evidence reasoning is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: designing grading influence factors of emergency material demands and constructing a corresponding index system, and dividing grading indexes of the emergency materials into a first grade and a second grade, wherein the first grade influence index factors comprise three aspects of emergency material importance, emergency material availability and emergency material timeliness, and the second grade indexes of the emergency material importance comprise emergency effect influence degree, irreplaceability degree and material shortage loss degree; the secondary indexes of the availability of the emergency materials comprise the shortage degree of the emergency materials, the purchasing difficulty degree of the materials, the social supply capacity and the allocation difficulty degree; secondary indexes of the timeliness of the emergency materials comprise material quality guarantee and demand urgency;
step two: dividing the emergency material demand into five demand levels of urgent demand, more urgent demand, general demand and temporary demand according to the importance degree, assigning values between the levels of the emergency material demand from high to low [0, l ], taking 0.85-1 as I-level urgent demand, 0.70-0.85 as II-level urgent demand, 0.55-0.70 as III-level urgent demand, 0.40-0.55 as general demand and 0-0.40 as temporary demand;
step three: constructing a basic probability distribution function (BPAF) based on the second step;
step four: based on the third step, the preference evidence information of the emergency material demand level given by the kth decision maker under the ith secondary index is synthesized;
step five: based on the fourth step, each primary index Y is subjected tojSynthesizing the demand level preference evidence information of the emergency materials, wherein j is 1,2, … and N; n is an integer;
step six: based on step five, all YjSynthesizing the evaluation information of the demand level of the emergency materials in the lower region, and then calculating the total confidence of the demand level of the emergency materials;
step seven: and calculating and evaluating the total evaluation value based on the sixth step.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein step three is specifically: firstly, a decision maker sets the requirement level index X of the emergency materials in the affected area as X1,……，XMConsider as evidence in D-S theory, evaluate the rank H ═ HnN-1, … … 5} is considered as a recognition framework in D-S theory, XiWhere (i-1, …, M) denotes the ith secondary index
Figure FDA0002866429930000021
Is a BPAF which represents dkAt index XiThe requirement level of the emergency materials in the lower judgment area is HnTo the extent that (a) is present,
Figure FDA0002866429930000022
denotes dkBPAF, which cannot evaluate the level of demand for emergency supplies, then:
Figure FDA0002866429930000023
Figure FDA0002866429930000024
Figure FDA0002866429930000025
Figure FDA0002866429930000026
n＝1,……,5i＝1,……，M；k＝1,……，P
here, dkRepresenting the credibility, omega, of the decision maker k to the judgment result of the level of the demand of the emergency materialiIndex X given by the decision makeriWeight, βi(Hn) The index X of the decision maker k to the A emergency materialiUpper rating of HnA degree of confidence of;
Figure FDA0002866429930000027
representing the known judgment of the emergency materials in the area A under the consideration of index weight and the credibility of a decision maker,
Figure FDA0002866429930000028
representing the unknown judgment of the demand level of the emergency materials in the area A under the consideration of index weight and the credibility of a decision maker, wherein
Figure FDA0002866429930000029
Express Pair A EmergencyWhen the material demand level is decided, the decision maker makes an unknown judgment on the index weight and the reliability of the decision maker,
Figure FDA00028664299300000210
and the unknown judgment in the process of making a decision on the requirement level of the emergency materials is shown.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein in step four, the index iBPAF for k decision makers is
Figure FDA0002866429930000031
Synthesizing the values to obtain m of BPAF under different indexesi(Hn)、
Figure FDA0002866429930000032
mi(H) Namely:
Figure FDA0002866429930000033
Figure FDA0002866429930000034
Figure FDA0002866429930000035
Figure FDA0002866429930000036
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0002866429930000037
4. as claimed in claim3 the method according to step five, wherein different Y's are usedjSynthesizing the evidence information to obtain the confidence degrees of the emergency material demand levels under different evaluation levels, namely:
Figure FDA0002866429930000038
Figure FDA0002866429930000039
Figure FDA00028664299300000310
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA00028664299300000311
5. the method of claim 4, wherein in step six, based on YjThe weight and D-S theoretical reasoning model and algorithm synthesizes evidence information under all factor index systems influencing the emergency material demand level, and calculates the total confidence of the emergency material demand level, namely:
mj(Hn)＝ωjmi(Hn)
Figure FDA0002866429930000041
Figure FDA0002866429930000042
Figure FDA0002866429930000043
Figure FDA0002866429930000044
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0002866429930000045
{Hn}:
Figure FDA0002866429930000046
{H}:
Figure FDA0002866429930000047
wherein beta isn(A) The requirement level of the emergency material A is represented as H under the total indexnConfidence level of the grade, andH(A) an assigned value of unknown degree is indicated.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein in the seventh step, the confidence level of the judgment of the demand level of the A-zone emergency supplies is composed of two parts of a determined information value and an unknown information value, and the evaluation of the demand level of the A-zone emergency supplies by the decision maker is represented by a confidence interval, namely [ aw,bw]，awMinimum trust value representing the level of emergency material demand of decision maker A, bwMaximum confidence value representing the level of demand of the decision maker for the asset A, bw-awThe larger the value is, the higher the uncertainty of the evaluation result given by a decision maker is, and the evaluation grades are assigned according to the interval values of 5 grades of the emergency material demand, namely:
P(H1)＝0.90,P(H2)＝0.725,P(H3)＝0.555,P(H4)＝0.475,P(H5)＝0.00
obtaining the comprehensive grading score of the emergency material demand according to the evidence reasoning model, and determining the demand grade of certain emergency material, namely:
Figure FDA0002866429930000051
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0002866429930000052
Figure FDA0002866429930000053
7. the method of claim 2, wherein 0 is<dk<1, when d iskWhen the value is 1, the decision maker k gives a judgment result of 100 percent credibility, and when d is equal tokWhen the result is 0, it means that the kth decision maker gives the judgment result which is not reliable.
8. The method of claim 2, wherein β is βi(Hn) The greater the value, the greater its confidence level.
9. The method of claim 2, wherein ω is ωi≥0,
Figure FDA0002866429930000054
10. Use of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 9 in the field of emergency material grading technology.
CN202011583527.3A 2020-12-28 2020-12-28 Emergency material grading method for public health emergency based on evidence reasoning Pending CN112633718A (en)

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Citations (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN108428024A (en) * 2018-06-08 2018-08-21 重庆科技学院 Unconventional accident emergency resources Decision of Allocation optimization method under uncertain information

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* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN108428024A (en) * 2018-06-08 2018-08-21 重庆科技学院 Unconventional accident emergency resources Decision of Allocation optimization method under uncertain information

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Title
舒其林: "中国博士学位论文全文数据库" *

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