CN112611353B - Dam monitoring alarm system and method - Google Patents
Dam monitoring alarm system and method Download PDFInfo
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- CN112611353B CN112611353B CN202011409505.5A CN202011409505A CN112611353B CN 112611353 B CN112611353 B CN 112611353B CN 202011409505 A CN202011409505 A CN 202011409505A CN 112611353 B CN112611353 B CN 112611353B
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- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01B—MEASURING LENGTH, THICKNESS OR SIMILAR LINEAR DIMENSIONS; MEASURING ANGLES; MEASURING AREAS; MEASURING IRREGULARITIES OF SURFACES OR CONTOURS
- G01B21/00—Measuring arrangements or details thereof, where the measuring technique is not covered by the other groups of this subclass, unspecified or not relevant
- G01B21/32—Measuring arrangements or details thereof, where the measuring technique is not covered by the other groups of this subclass, unspecified or not relevant for measuring the deformation in a solid
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- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08B—SIGNALLING OR CALLING SYSTEMS; ORDER TELEGRAPHS; ALARM SYSTEMS
- G08B21/00—Alarms responsive to a single specified undesired or abnormal condition and not otherwise provided for
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Abstract
The invention discloses a dam monitoring alarm system and a method, comprising the following steps: a monitoring threshold value determining device and a monitoring alarm device. The monitoring threshold value determining device is convenient for realizing dynamic monitoring, data acquisition and threshold value determination. The monitoring threshold value alarm device is used for determining a dam safety state interval, acquiring a monitoring deformation value and giving an alarm; the invention has the advantages that: and determining the state of the dam according to the threshold, and generating a corresponding alarm signal when the deformation of the dam exceeds the allowable threshold. Compared with a common monitoring threshold, the method has higher scientificity and stronger practicability, can reflect the real-time dynamic change characteristic, and reduces the rate of missing report and the rate of false report.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of dam safety, in particular to a dam monitoring alarm system, a dam monitoring threshold value determining method and a dam monitoring threshold value alarm method.
Background
Traditionally, the safety of the arch dam is evaluated by a method of regular inspection, and the dam is graded according to comprehensive evaluation. For example, the dam is divided into three grades, namely a normal dam (A or A-grade), a diseased dam (B grade), and a dangerous dam (C grade), according to the hydropower station dam operation safety evaluation guide rule, the arch dam is divided into three grades according to factors such as arch abutment stability safety factor, dam body compressive stress, dam body tensile stress, deformation, seepage, cracks and the like, and each factor is divided into four grades, namely a grade, B grade and C grade. The four deformation stages of the dam body correspond respectively: a, the dam body concrete is generally in an elastic working state, the deformation is integrally coordinated, the aging displacement rate of the dam body and the abutment rock mass does not increase, and the safety of the integral structure cannot be influenced even if the dam body and the abutment rock mass are continuously developed; the a-aging displacement rate has no obvious increasing trend, but the whole structure safety is influenced by the continuous development; b, aging displacement is in a trend of obvious increase, the safety of the whole structure is influenced by continuous development, but no obvious instability sign exists at present; the aging displacement rate is in a remarkable increasing trend, the safety of the whole structure is influenced, and a remarkable destabilization sign exists. The reservoir dam safety evaluation guide divides the dam into three types, one is a dam which can normally operate according to design standards, the second is a dam which can only safely operate under certain control and application conditions, and the third is a dam which can not normally operate according to design. The determination basis comprises flood control capacity, seepage safety, structural safety, earthquake-proof safety, metal structural safety and the like, but specific deformation division standards are not given. The method is suitable for comprehensive and regular safety inspection, but no clear deformation value determination method is provided, and the method is difficult to be used for dynamic real-time monitoring and alarming.
In the daily monitoring and early warning of the arch dam, a design value or a statistical method is generally adopted to determine a monitoring threshold, wherein the design value is a static value and is difficult to adapt to the actual deformation condition, the statistical value is properly interpolated, and the accuracy is poor and the method is difficult to adapt when the actual deformation condition is exceeded. The existing article adopts a method for determining the safety classification and the monitoring threshold value of the dam by structural analysis, which is to divide the dam into an elastic state, an elasto-plastic state, a destabilization state and the like, but the latter two definitions have the problems of ambiguity or overlarge deformation and are difficult to be applied to the daily monitoring of the actual engineering.
Prior art 1
Designing a simulation method, taking the calculated deformation value of dam design as a safety monitoring standard as a deterministic method
Disadvantages of the first prior art
Is only suitable for characteristic design working conditions, such as normal water storage level, dead water level and the like, is difficult to adapt to the continuously changing actual conditions, and only has a first-level threshold value
Prior art 2
The statistical method comprises determining the relation between deformation monitoring amount and water pressure, temperature and aging according to actual deformation, establishing mathematical model, determining threshold and grade according to confidence interval, and determining different grades according to different confidence intervals
The second prior art has the defects
The accuracy is not high when the deformation monitoring data are few, and meanwhile, the method has weak physical significance and cannot accurately monitor when special conditions such as overproof flood occur.
Prior art III
The structure calculation method determines the classification and monitoring threshold value of the dam according to different states of elasticity, elastoplasticity, limit bearing and the like of the dam. The prediction indexes of 4-level safe deformation of the concrete dam are as follows: the I level is a safety deformation prediction index, the stress of any point of the dam body does not exceed the material design strength, the tensile stress of the dam heel area is smaller than a design allowable value, and the dam body is in an elastic working stage; the II level is a safer deformation prediction index, the local stress of the dam body reaches the material elastic proportion limit, the tensile stress of the dam heel area is close to the limit tensile stress, the local part is in a plastic working state, and the dam heel area is in a quasi-elastic working stage; the III level is a less safe deformation prediction index, a larger plastic area appears in the dam body, a possible crack area is expanded, the pressure stress of a downstream area is increased, the partial area of the dam body appears pressure shear yielding or crushing yielding, the structure enters a yielding state, the deformation is obviously increased, and the dam body is in an elastic-plastic working stage; the Iv level is an unsafe deformation prediction index, the deformation of the dam is increased rapidly, cracks are expanded in a large range, a yield area and a crushing area are increased rapidly, the dam is in a large deformation state, and when the load is increased again to reach a damage limit, the structure is destroyed completely.
Disadvantages of the third prior art
The grading method is determined according to structural analysis, has definite physical significance, but deformation monitoring indexes are irrelevant to actual monitoring deformation values and are determined only by structural calculation, so that the real working state of the dam is difficult to reflect; the I-level index and the second-level index are determined according to stress, which is difficult to realize in finite element analysis, and is difficult to realize in actual calculation due to the fact that the stress is related to the size of a grid and stress concentration; the dam in the level III and level IV definitions has a large plastic area, meanwhile, a crack area is expanded, the deformation of the dam is increased rapidly, the condition is not allowed to occur in real dynamic monitoring, and the significance of the dam serving as a daily dynamic monitoring index is not great.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a dam monitoring alarm system and a dam monitoring alarm method, which solve the defects in the prior art.
In order to realize the purpose, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a dam monitoring alarm system comprising: a monitoring threshold value determining device and a monitoring alarm device;
the monitoring threshold value determining device is convenient for realizing dynamic monitoring. The device includes: the device comprises a data acquisition module, a primary threshold value determination module, a secondary threshold value determination module and a tertiary threshold value determination module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring deformation historical data and variable values of environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameters within preset time;
the primary threshold determining module is used for determining a primary monitoring threshold according to historical deformation and simulation calculation deformation deviation in preset time;
the third-level threshold determining module is used for determining a third-level monitoring threshold according to the cracking of the dam to the impervious curtain when the water head is overloaded and the cracking of the downstream surface of the dam when the upstream water level is reduced;
and the secondary threshold determining module is used for determining a secondary monitoring threshold according to the primary and tertiary thresholds.
The monitoring threshold value alarm device comprises: the system comprises a dam safety state interval determining module, a monitoring deformation value obtaining module and an alarm module;
the dam safety state interval determining module is used for acquiring a state interval from the monitoring threshold value determining device;
the monitoring deformation value acquisition module is used for acquiring real-time deformation monitoring data of the dam;
and the alarm module is used for comparing the deformation monitoring data with the safety state interval of the dam and generating corresponding alarm signals when the deformation monitoring data are in the light abnormal, abnormal and dangerous state intervals.
The invention also discloses a dam monitoring threshold value determining method, which comprises the following steps:
(1) acquiring dam deformation monitoring historical data deltadtmAnd the variable values of the environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameters within the preset time;
(2) according to the environment within a preset timeThe variable values of the parameters of the structure, construction, operation and material are calculated by adopting a simulation feedback method to obtain dam deformation calculation data deltadtc；
(3) Obtaining the square sum of the deformation deviation and the standard deviation delta a based on the monitoring data and the calculation data in the preset time, and determining the allowable deviation deltaI：
δI＝2～3Δa
(4) Setting up the variable values of the parameters of the dam operation environment, structure, construction, operation and material in the future period, and dynamically calculating to obtain the predicted value delta of the dam deformationdtp；
(5) Determining the upper limit and the lower limit of a primary safety monitoring threshold of the dam based on the deformation prediction value and the allowable deviation:
Δ±I＝δdtp±δI
within the upper and lower limits, the dam is in a safe state;
(6) determining upper and lower limits of a three-level monitoring threshold according to the damage states of the upstream and downstream surfaces of the dam, wherein the upper limit determining method comprises the following steps: carrying out water head overload under the operation water level of the dam until the dam heel cracks to the impervious curtain, and then, carrying out deformation difference delta between the deformation of the dam and the deformation under the operation water level+IIIThe sum of the predicted value of the deformation of the dam and the predicted value of the deformation of the dam is the upper limit of a third-level monitoring threshold value:
Δ+III＝δdtp+δ+III
the lower limit determination method comprises the following steps: gradually reducing the water level from the dead water level until the stress of the downstream dam toe reaches the allowable tensile strength, and then, the difference value delta between the deformation of the dam and the deformation of the dead water level-IIIThe difference between the predicted value of the deformation of the dam and the predicted value of the deformation of the dam is the lower limit of a three-level monitoring threshold value:
Δ-III＝δdtp-δ-III
(7) the upper and lower limits of the secondary threshold of the dam are determined based on the primary threshold and the tertiary threshold, namely:
Δ±II＝(Δ±I+Δ±III)/2
(8) deformation delta at damdtrWhen the dam is between the primary threshold value and the secondary threshold value, the dam is in a slight abnormal state; dam deformation deltadtrAt the second and third stagesWhen the threshold value is within the range, the dam is in an abnormal state; when the dam deformation is beyond the three-level threshold value, the dam is in a dangerous case state.
(9) And determining the state of the dam according to the three-level threshold, and generating an alarm signal when the deformation of the dam exceeds the allowable threshold.
Further, the monitoring threshold is obtained by: acquiring dam deformation monitoring historical data within preset time, obtaining a calculated value by adopting simulation feedback based on environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameter variable values, and determining a primary monitoring threshold value according to the deviation of the calculated value and the monitored value;
determining a third-level monitoring threshold value according to cracking of the dam to an impervious curtain when the water head is overloaded and cracking of the downstream surface of the dam when the upstream water level is reduced by adopting a structural calculation method;
and determining a secondary monitoring threshold value by adopting an average interpolation method according to the primary and tertiary threshold values.
Deformation delta at damdtrWhen the dam is between the primary threshold value and the secondary threshold value, the dam is in a slight abnormal state; dam deformation deltadtrWhen the dam is between the second-level threshold value and the third-level threshold value, the dam is in an abnormal state; when the dam deformation is beyond the three-level threshold value, the dam is in a dangerous case state.
The invention also discloses a dam monitoring threshold value alarming method, which comprises the following steps:
(1) acquiring a safety monitoring threshold value and a safety state interval of the dam, wherein the safety monitoring threshold value is determined by the method;
(2) acquiring real-time monitoring deformation of the dam;
(3) and comparing the real-time monitoring deformation of the dam with a safety monitoring threshold value of the dam, and generating alarm signals corresponding to different states according to the safety state interval when the deformation is beyond the primary monitoring threshold value.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages that:
and determining the state of the dam according to the three-level threshold, and generating a corresponding alarm signal when the deformation of the dam exceeds the allowable threshold. Compared with a common monitoring threshold, the method has higher scientificity and stronger practicability, can reflect the real-time dynamic change characteristic, and reduces the rate of missing report and the rate of false report.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a diagram of a monitoring threshold determination apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of a monitoring alarm apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of a monitoring threshold determination method according to an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of a monitoring alarm method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a block diagram of a dam according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a graph of the ambient temperature of the dam site area in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a graph of water level changes during operation of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram of historical deformation monitoring data for a dam according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 9 is a schematic diagram of a dam value simulation model according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 10 is a graphical representation of calculated dam deformation values in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 11 is a schematic view of a position of an impervious curtain according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 12 is a schematic view of a stress macro site location according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 13 is a schematic diagram of three-level deformation threshold values of key measurement points according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 14 is a schematic diagram of four safety states of the dam according to the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings by way of examples.
A dam monitoring alarm system comprising: a monitoring threshold value determining device and a monitoring alarm device;
as shown in fig. 1, the monitoring threshold determination device facilitates dynamic monitoring. The device includes: the device comprises a data acquisition module, a primary threshold value determination module, a secondary threshold value determination module and a tertiary threshold value determination module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring deformation historical data and variable values of environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameters within preset time;
the primary threshold determining module is used for determining a primary monitoring threshold according to historical deformation and simulation calculation deformation deviation in preset time;
the third-level threshold determining module is used for determining a third-level monitoring threshold according to the cracking of the dam to the impervious curtain when the water head is overloaded and the cracking of the downstream surface of the dam when the upstream water level is reduced;
and the secondary threshold determining module is used for determining a secondary monitoring threshold according to the primary and tertiary thresholds.
As shown in fig. 2, the monitoring threshold value alarming means includes: the system comprises a dam safety state interval determining module, a monitoring deformation value obtaining module and an alarm module;
the dam safety state interval determining module is used for acquiring a state interval from the monitoring threshold value determining device;
the monitoring deformation value acquisition module is used for acquiring real-time deformation monitoring data;
and the alarm module is used for comparing the deformation monitoring data with the safety state interval of the dam and generating corresponding alarm signals when the deformation monitoring data are in the light abnormal, abnormal and dangerous state intervals.
As shown in fig. 3, a method for determining a dam monitoring threshold includes the following steps:
(1) acquiring dam deformation monitoring historical data deltadtmAnd the variable values of the environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameters within the preset time;
(2) calculating to obtain dam deformation calculation data delta by adopting a simulation feedback method according to environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameter variable values in preset timedtc；
(3) Obtaining the square sum of the deformation deviation and the standard deviation delta a based on the monitoring data and the calculation data in the preset time, and determining the allowable deviation:
δI＝2～3Δa
(4) setting up the variable values of dam operation environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameters in future time periodAnd dynamically calculating to obtain a dam deformation predicted value deltadtp；
(5) Determining the upper limit and the lower limit of a primary safety monitoring threshold of the dam based on the deformation prediction value and the allowable deviation:
Δ±I＝δdtp±δI
within the upper and lower limits, the dam is in a safe state;
(6) determining upper and lower limits of a three-level monitoring threshold according to the damage states of the upstream and downstream surfaces of the dam, wherein the upper limit determining method comprises the following steps: carrying out water head overload under the operation water level of the dam until the dam heel cracks to the impervious curtain, and then, carrying out deformation difference delta between the deformation of the dam and the deformation under the operation water level+IIIThe sum of the predicted value of the deformation of the dam and the predicted value of the deformation of the dam is the upper limit of a third-level monitoring threshold value:
Δ+III＝δdtp+δ+III
the lower limit determination method comprises the following steps: gradually reducing the water level from the dead water level until the stress of the downstream dam toe reaches the allowable tensile strength, and then, the difference value delta between the deformation of the dam and the deformation of the dead water level-IIIThe difference between the predicted value of the deformation of the dam and the predicted value of the deformation of the dam is the lower limit of a three-level monitoring threshold value:
Δ-III＝δdtp-δ-III
(7) the upper and lower limits of the secondary threshold of the dam are determined based on the primary threshold and the tertiary threshold, namely:
Δ±II＝(Δ±I+Δ±III)/2
(8) deformation delta at damdtrWhen the dam is between the primary threshold value and the secondary threshold value, the dam is in a slight abnormal state; dam deformation deltadtrWhen the dam is between the second-level threshold value and the third-level threshold value, the dam is in an abnormal state; when the dam deformation is beyond the three-level threshold value, the dam is in a dangerous case state.
(9) And determining the state of the dam according to the three-level threshold, and generating an alarm signal when the deformation of the dam exceeds the allowable threshold.
Further, the monitoring threshold is obtained by: acquiring dam deformation monitoring historical data within preset time, obtaining a calculated value by adopting simulation feedback based on environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameter variable values, and determining a primary monitoring threshold value according to the deviation of the calculated value and the monitored value;
determining a third-level monitoring threshold value according to cracking of the dam to an impervious curtain when the water head is overloaded and cracking of the downstream surface of the dam when the upstream water level is reduced by adopting a structural calculation method;
and determining a secondary monitoring threshold value by adopting an average interpolation method according to the primary and tertiary threshold values.
Deformation delta at damdtrWhen the dam is between the primary threshold value and the secondary threshold value, the dam is in a slight abnormal state; dam deformation deltadtrWhen the dam is between the second-level threshold value and the third-level threshold value, the dam is in an abnormal state; when the dam deformation is beyond the three-level threshold value, the dam is in a dangerous case state.
The method uses the monitoring threshold obtained by the dam monitoring threshold determining method to alarm and can provide reasonable and effective dynamic monitoring. The method comprises the following steps:
(1) acquiring a safety monitoring threshold value and a safety state interval of the dam, wherein the safety monitoring threshold value is determined by the method;
(2) acquiring real-time monitoring deformation of the dam;
(3) and comparing the real-time monitoring deformation of the dam with a safety monitoring threshold value of the dam, and generating alarm signals corresponding to different states according to the safety state interval when the deformation is beyond the primary monitoring threshold value.
Example (b):
step 1: the height of a certain arch dam is 305m, the elevation of the dam top is 1880m, the dam structure is shown in figure 5, the environment temperature of a dam site area is shown in figure 6, the operation water level change is shown in figure 7, and main material parameters are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1
The historical deformation monitoring data of the dam is shown in figure 8.
Step 2: based on the data, a dam numerical simulation model is established, as shown in figure 9, and a dam deformation calculation value is obtained through simulation feedback calculation, as shown in figure 10.
And step 3: and calculating the square sum of the deviation of each moment of the calculated deformation and the historical monitoring deformation data to obtain the average deviation, wherein the deviation of the representative measuring point is shown in a table 2, and 2 times of the deviation is taken to determine a primary deformation threshold value.
TABLE 2
And 4, step 4: on the basis of calculating the deformation of the dam at the normal water level by adopting nonlinear simulation and combining a water head overload analysis method, the dam is gradually overloaded according to the water volume weight of 0.05 time, the dam is cracked to an impermeable curtain when the load is 1.75 times, the position of the impermeable curtain is shown in a figure 11, the deformation of the dam at the moment minus the normal water level is adopted, and the upper limit of a three-level deformation threshold value is determined by the difference value.
And 5: the deformation of the dam is calculated by adopting a nonlinear simulation method when the dead water level is obtained, on the basis, the upstream water level is gradually reduced, in the embodiment, 10m is taken as a step length, when the water level is gradually reduced to 1760m, the tensile stress of the downstream surface of the dam reaches the tensile strength, the position of a stress large point is shown in figure 12, the deformation difference value is obtained by subtracting the deformation of the dam when the stress of the downstream surface reaches the water level of 1760m from the deformation of the dead water level, and the lower limit of the three-level threshold is determined by the difference value.
Step 6: determining a secondary threshold value by adopting an average value based on the upper limit of the primary threshold value and the upper limit of the tertiary threshold value; and determining a secondary threshold value by adopting the average value based on the lower limit of the primary threshold value and the lower limit of the tertiary threshold value.
And 7: and calculating to obtain a three-level deformation threshold of the key measuring point, as shown in figure 13.
And 8: and determining four safety states of the dam according to the interval of the measuring points by adopting three-level threshold values, and referring to a table 3 and a figure 14.
And step 9: and carrying out dam safety monitoring and alarming based on the actually measured deformation data and a given monitoring threshold value.
TABLE 3
| Grade | Type (B) | Description of the invention |
| 1 | Is normal | The deformation of the monitoring point is within the range of the first-level threshold value |
| 2 | Mild abnormality | The deformation of the monitoring point is between the primary and secondary threshold values |
| 3 | Abnormality (S) | The deformation of the monitoring point is between the second level and the third level threshold |
| 4 | Danger situation | Deformation of monitoring point is out of three-level threshold |
It will be appreciated by those of ordinary skill in the art that the examples described herein are intended to assist the reader in understanding the manner in which the invention is practiced, and it is to be understood that the scope of the invention is not limited to such specifically recited statements and examples. Those skilled in the art can make various other specific changes and combinations based on the teachings of the present invention without departing from the spirit of the invention, and these changes and combinations are within the scope of the invention.
Claims (2)
1. A dam monitoring alarm system, comprising: a monitoring threshold value determining device and a monitoring alarm device;
the monitoring threshold value determining device is convenient for realizing dynamic monitoring; the device includes: the device comprises a data acquisition module, a primary threshold value determination module, a secondary threshold value determination module and a tertiary threshold value determination module;
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring deformation historical data and variable values of environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameters within preset time;
the primary threshold determining module is used for determining a primary monitoring threshold according to historical deformation and simulation calculation deformation deviation in preset time; the primary monitoring threshold is obtained by: acquiring dam deformation monitoring historical data within preset time, obtaining a calculated value by adopting simulation feedback based on environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameter variable values, and determining a primary monitoring threshold value according to the deviation of the calculated value and the monitored value;
the third-level threshold determining module is used for determining a third-level monitoring threshold according to cracking of the dam to the impervious curtain when the water head is overloaded and cracking of the downstream surface of the dam when the upstream water level is reduced by adopting a structural calculation method;
the second-level threshold determining module is used for determining a second-level monitoring threshold by adopting an average interpolation method according to the first-level and third-level thresholds;
the monitoring threshold value alarm device comprises: the system comprises a dam safety state interval determining module, a monitoring deformation value obtaining module and an alarm module;
the dam safety state interval determining module is used for acquiring a state interval from the monitoring threshold value determining device;
the monitoring deformation value acquisition module is used for acquiring real-time deformation monitoring data of the dam;
and the alarm module is used for comparing the deformation monitoring data with the safety state interval of the dam and generating corresponding alarm signals when the deformation monitoring data are in the light abnormal, abnormal and dangerous state intervals.
2. The monitoring threshold determination method of the dam monitoring alarm system according to claim 1, characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) acquiring dam deformation monitoring historical data deltadtmAnd the variable values of the environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameters within the preset time;
(2) calculating to obtain dam deformation calculation data delta by adopting a simulation feedback method according to environment, structure, construction, operation and material parameter variable values in preset timedtc；
(3) Obtaining the square sum of the deformation deviation and the standard deviation delta a based on the monitoring data and the calculation data in the preset time, and determining the allowable deviation deltaI：
δI＝2Δa～3Δa
(4) Setting up the variable values of the parameters of the dam operation environment, structure, construction, operation and material in the future period, and dynamically calculating to obtain the predicted value delta of the dam deformationdtp；
(5) Determining the upper limit and the lower limit of a primary safety monitoring threshold of the dam based on the deformation prediction value and the allowable deviation:
Δ±I＝δdtp±δI
within the upper and lower limits, the dam is in a safe state;
(6) determining upper and lower limits of a three-level monitoring threshold according to the damage states of the upstream and downstream surfaces of the dam, wherein the upper limit determining method comprises the following steps: carrying out water head overload under the operation water level of the dam until the dam heel cracks to the impervious curtain, and then, carrying out deformation difference delta between the deformation of the dam and the deformation under the operation water level+IIIThe sum of the predicted value of the deformation of the dam and the predicted value of the deformation of the dam is the upper limit of a third-level monitoring threshold value:
Δ+III＝δdtp+δ+III
the lower limit determination method comprises the following steps: gradually reducing the water level from the dead water level until the stress of the downstream dam toe reaches the allowable tensile strength, and then, the difference value delta between the deformation of the dam and the deformation of the dead water level-IIIThe difference between the predicted value of the deformation of the dam and the predicted value of the deformation of the dam is the lower limit of a three-level monitoring threshold value:
Δ-III＝δdtp-δ-III
(7) the upper and lower limits of the secondary threshold of the dam are determined based on the primary threshold and the tertiary threshold, namely:
Δ±II＝(Δ±I+Δ±III)/2
(8) deformation delta at damdtrWhen the dam is between the primary threshold value and the secondary threshold value, the dam is in a slight abnormal state; dam deformation deltadtrWhen the dam is between the second-level threshold value and the third-level threshold value, the dam is in an abnormal state; when the dam deformation is beyond the three-level threshold, the dam is in a dangerous case state;
(9) and determining the state of the dam according to the three-level threshold, and generating an alarm signal when the deformation of the dam exceeds the allowable threshold.
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