CN112560238A - Oil yield prediction method and device based on Starkeberg game model - Google Patents
Oil yield prediction method and device based on Starkeberg game model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a device for predicting petroleum yield based on a Starkelberg game model, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring historical petroleum yield data of each main object in a petroleum system; constructing a Hubbard yield prediction model of each main body object according to historical petroleum yield data of each main body object based on a Hubbard function; predicting petroleum yield data of each subject object under resource constraint by using a Hubert yield prediction model of each subject object; and inputting the oil yield data of each main object under the resource constraint into a pre-constructed Starkeberg game model, and outputting the oil yield data of each main object under the game relation. The method predicts the petroleum yield based on the Starkelberg game model, considers the macroscopic game relation of the petroleum market, and can more accurately predict the future petroleum yield.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of oil exploitation, in particular to an oil yield prediction method and device based on a Starkelberg game model.
Background
This section is intended to provide a background or context to the embodiments of the invention that are recited in the claims. The description herein is not admitted to be prior art by inclusion in this section.
At present, the models for petroleum production prediction mainly include statistical methods, mechanism methods and system function simulation methods. The statistical method is mainly used for calculating the oil yield based on a statistical model, and typical yield prediction methods comprise a Weng's model, a Weibull model, an HCZ prediction model, a logistic prediction model, a Hubert model, a degressive model, a Gaussian model and the like. The habert model is widely applied to petroleum yield prediction as a main yield prediction model.
However, the statistical method describes yield variation from a microscopic perspective, and a macroscopic level of gaming relationship has not been considered. In petroleum systems, behavioral subjects diversify, relationships complicate, and the interaction of these relationships follows a feedback mechanism. The main bodies in the petroleum system do not simply interact, competition and symbiosis exist between the main bodies, and the two dialectical relationships interact to form an intricate and complex system. It can be seen that the macro gambling relationship in the petroleum market directly affects petroleum production.
Therefore, how to provide a petroleum yield prediction method reflecting the macroscopic game relationship of the petroleum market is a technical problem to be solved urgently at present.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides an oil yield prediction method based on a Starkeberg game model, which is used for solving the technical problem that the prediction result is inaccurate because a macroscopic game relation in an oil system cannot be embodied by an oil yield prediction method based on statistics in the prior art, and comprises the following steps: acquiring historical petroleum yield data of each main object in a petroleum system; constructing a Hubbard yield prediction model of each main body object according to historical petroleum yield data of each main body object based on a Hubbard function; predicting petroleum yield data of each subject object under resource constraint by using a Hubert yield prediction model of each subject object; and inputting the oil yield data of each main object under the resource constraint into a pre-constructed Starkeberg game model, and outputting the oil yield data of each main object under the game relation.
The embodiment of the invention also provides an oil yield prediction device based on a Starkeberg game model, which is used for solving the technical problem that the prediction result is inaccurate because the macroscopic game relation in an oil system cannot be embodied by an oil yield prediction method based on statistics in the prior art, and comprises the following steps: the historical petroleum yield data acquisition module is used for acquiring historical petroleum yield data of each petroleum main object in the petroleum system; the petroleum yield model determining module is used for constructing a Hubbard yield prediction model of each main body object according to the historical petroleum yield data of each main body object based on a Hubbard function; the resource constraint petroleum yield prediction module is used for predicting petroleum yield data of each main object under resource constraint by using the Hubert yield prediction model of each main object; and the game relation petroleum yield prediction module is used for inputting the petroleum yield data of each main object under the resource constraint into a pre-constructed Starkelberg game model and outputting the petroleum yield data of each main object under the game relation.
The embodiment of the invention also provides computer equipment for solving the technical problem that the prediction result is inaccurate because the macroscopic game relation in an oil system cannot be embodied by the oil yield prediction method based on statistics in the prior art.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, which is used for solving the technical problem that the prediction result is inaccurate because the macroscopic game relation in the petroleum system cannot be embodied by the petroleum yield prediction method based on statistics in the prior art.
In the embodiment of the invention, after the historical petroleum yield data of each main object in the petroleum system is obtained, based on the Hubbitt function, constructing a Hubert yield prediction model of each subject object according to the historical petroleum yield data of each subject object, then, predicting the petroleum yield data of each main object under the resource constraint by using the Hubert yield prediction model of each main object, inputting the petroleum yield data of each main object under the resource constraint into a pre-constructed Starkeberg game model, outputting the petroleum yield data of each main object under the game relation, compared with the petroleum yield prediction scheme based on statistics in the prior art, the petroleum yield prediction method based on the Starkelberg game model has the advantages that the petroleum yield is predicted based on the Starkelberg game model, the macroscopic game relation of the petroleum market is considered, and the future petroleum yield can be predicted more accurately.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts. In the drawings:
fig. 1 is a flowchart of an oil production prediction method based on a starkeberg game model according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a method for predicting oil production between OPEC and non-OPEC based on a Starkelberg game model according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a structural diagram of a stoker game model based method for predicting the oil yields of OPEC and non-OPEC provided in the embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a result of predicting petroleum production by an OPEC under a resource constraint and game relationship, provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating results of predicting petroleum production under the resource constraint and game relationship for non-OPECs provided in the embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a schematic diagram of an oil yield prediction apparatus based on a starkeberg game model according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more apparent, the embodiments of the present invention are further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The exemplary embodiments and descriptions of the present invention are provided to explain the present invention, but not to limit the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention provides an oil yield prediction method based on a starkeberg game model (namely, a Stackelberg model), fig. 1 is a flow chart of the oil yield prediction method based on the starkeberg game model, and as shown in fig. 1, the method comprises the following steps:
s101, historical oil yield data of each main object in the oil system are obtained.
It should be noted that the current gaming relationships in the petroleum supply market mainly include two types: one is the game between the members of the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries); the other is a game between the OPEC member country and a non-OPEC member country.
The gambling parties of the oil supply aim to maximize the benefits of the gambling parties, and the situation that the oil price is kept high is a win-win situation, but the situation is not a Nash balance, because the gambling parties are all supplied with uncooperative motivation, namely, the gambling parties are all supplied with the hope of obtaining more benefits under the condition of high oil price to improve the oil yield, and if all the gambling parties are supplied with the thought, the oil yield is inevitably improved, and the oil price tends to be reduced. Historically, the OPEC "keep-price-and-limit" strategy has not been a Nash equilibrium. The petroleum supply market is composed of numerous gambling parties, and whether or not such a partnership can be formed must be observed whether or not other gambling parties would like to comply with such a partnership.
The intent of the OPEC member countries is to coordinate and unify the oil policies of the member countries and determine the most appropriate means to maintain the respective and common interests of the member countries. The member states of OPEC, as the top of the world petroleum market, play a leading role in the formation of the world petroleum price, are regulators of the petroleum price, and ensure the stability of the international petroleum market by increasing or reducing the yield. The non-OPEC member country is a recipient of oil prices and is in disadvantage in the game relationship between the OPEC and the non-OPEC, and generally, the non-OPEC member country makes an own oil supply strategy on the basis of the supply strategy of the OPEC member country, so that the oil supply condition of the non-OPEC member country can be influenced by the supply strategy of the OPEC member country.
The traditional petroleum yield prediction method only considers the limitation of resources and less considers the macro game relationship in the petroleum market. The inventor finds that the game theory is a method for considering the influence of behavior subjects on other subjects, and is suitable for complex relations of petroleum systems. Therefore, the oil yield prediction method based on the Starkeberg game model provided by the embodiment of the invention considers the macroscopic game relationship, can better predict the future oil yield, has great significance for the future strategic planning and the study and judgment of the oil market situation, and provides decision support for the planning of oil companies.
In one embodiment, an oil system in an embodiment of the invention may include: the system includes a first subject object and a second subject object, wherein the first subject object is a leader (e.g., an OPEC member country) who formulates oil price data, and the second subject object is a follower (e.g., a non-OPEC member country) who receives the oil price data formulated by the first subject object.
S102, constructing a Hubert yield prediction model of each main body object according to historical petroleum yield data of each main body object based on a Hubert function;
in a specific implementation, the step S102 may be implemented by: according to the historical petroleum yield data of each main object, fitting the relation between the historical petroleum yield and time by using a Hubert function to obtain a Hubert yield prediction model of each main object; and predicting the petroleum yield data of each main body object by using the Hubert yield prediction model of each main body object, and continuously adjusting model parameters by comparing the historical petroleum yield data of each cylinder object with the predicted petroleum yield data until the historical petroleum yield data of each main body object is consistent with the predicted petroleum yield data.
The oil production prediction model under the resource constraint is a Logistic model (Logistic model), namely a Hubert model, and the differential equation of the model is expressed as follows:
the separation variables were obtained:
where y represents the model function, t represents the time variable, and a and b represent the model parameters.
The two sides of the equation are integrated to obtain:
wherein, y0Indicating the initial value of time.
The final result obtained after integration is:
order to
Obtaining:
z＝eatz0 (6)
wherein z is0Representing a value associated with an initial time and varying with the parameter b, i.e.
lnz-lnz0＝at (7)
Will be provided with
Taken into the above formula, gives:
order to
Obtaining:
the above formula is a primitive formula of a Logistic model, and the meaning of the above formula in a Harbert model for petroleum yield prediction is as follows:
wherein N isPRepresents cumulative oil production; n is a radical ofRRepresenting the recoverable reserves of oil; t represents time; a and c represent model parameters.
The yield is obtained by deriving the two sides of the above formula:
when the first subject object is an OPEC member country and the second subject object is a non-OPEC member country, the habert yield prediction models of the first subject object and the second subject object are as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing a petroleum recoverable reserve of the first subject;
representing the oil production of the second subject object under resource constraints; n is a radical of1Representing a petroleum recoverable reserve of the first subject; n is a radical of2Representing the petroleum recoverable reserve of the second subject; t represents time; lambda [ alpha ]1、λ2、C1、C2And C represents a model parameter.
S103, predicting petroleum yield data of each subject object under resource constraint by using the Hubert yield prediction model of each subject object.
When predicting the oil production data of the first subject object or the second subject object in a certain time period in the future, the oil production of the first subject object under the resource constraint can be calculated through the formula (12), and the oil production of the second subject object under the resource constraint can be calculated through the formula (13).
And S104, inputting the oil yield data of each main object under the resource constraint into a pre-constructed Steckelberg game model, and outputting the oil yield data of each main object under the game relation.
In one embodiment, before performing the above S104, the method for predicting oil production based on the starkeberg game model provided in the embodiment of the present invention may further construct the starkeberg game model by: determining the oil yield elastic coefficient of each subject object according to the historical oil yield data of each subject object; and constructing a Starkelberg game model according to the oil yield elasticity coefficient of each main object.
For example, for a first subject object and a second subject object, a cross-petroleum-production-elasticity-coefficient-based game model is constructed:
setting an oil inverse demand function:
p(Q)＝a-Q (14)
Q＝q1+q2 (15)
wherein p represents the price of oil made by the first subject object; q represents the total oil production of the oil system; q. q.s1Representing the oil production of the first subject object under the gambling relationship; q. q.s2Representing the oil production of the second subject object under the gambling relationship; a represents a certain predetermined constant.
In order to represent the game relationship between the OPEC and the non-OPEC, the cross elasticity coefficient beta of the oil yield is introduced in the embodiment of the invention and is used for representing the change situation of the oil yield of a second subject under the condition that the oil yield of a first subject is changed; the expression is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing oil production of the first subject object under resource constraints;
representing the oil production of the second subject object under resource constraints; Δ q of1Representing the amount of change in oil production of the first subject; Δ q of2Representing the amount of change in oil production of the first subject;
according to the reverse-reasoning method in the game theory, the Stackelberg model is used, and how to select the yield per se in the petroleum supply market under the control of the OPEC member countries and the non-OPEC member countries as the recipients of the prices is considered. The embodiment of the invention provides a profit function of non-OPEC member countries, which comprises the following steps:
π2＝q2×(p(Q))-C2 (17)
maximizing according to a profit function:
obtaining:
according to the estimation of the yield of non-OPEC countries, the OPEC member countries will make their own yields, and the profit function is:
π1＝q1×(p(Q))-C1 (20)
maximizing according to a profit function:
will be provided with
Bringing into the above formula, we obtain:
bringing formula (23) into formula (19) yields:
because of the gaming relationships that exist in the gaming model, such relationships result in reduced efficiency, i.e.
In the model we set the total yield
The yields between the OPEC member countries and the non-OPEC member countries are simply adjusted unchanged.
Wherein q is1adjustRepresenting an oil production adjustment of the first subject object in the gambling relationship; q. q.s2adjustAnd indicating the oil production adjustment amount of the second main object in the game relation.
Taking prediction of oil production of OPEC and non-OPEC as an example, the following describes an implementation process of predicting oil production of OPEC and non-OPEC based on a starkeberg game model in the embodiment of the present invention with reference to fig. 2 and 3, including the following steps:
and fitting the relation between the historical yield and the time by using a Hubert function to obtain a Hubert yield prediction model.
Firstly, according to the historical yield and the recoverable reserve of the OPEC, a Hubert yield prediction model of the OPEC is measured and calculated, and parameter values are obtained;
comparing the historical yield of the OPEC with the yield of the OPEC calculated according to the Harbert model, and adjusting the parameter value range to enable the historical yield of the OPEC to be matched with the yield of the OPEC calculated by the Harbert model;
thirdly, finally confirming parameters of the Hubbitt model, and bringing the confirmed parameters into the model to obtain future output trend of the OPEC;
fourthly, according to the historical yield and the recoverable reserve of the non-OPECs, a Hubert yield prediction model of the non-OPECs is measured and calculated, and parameter values are obtained;
comparing the non-OPEC historical yield with the non-OPEC yield calculated according to the Hubbard model, and adjusting the parameter value range to enable the non-OPEC historical yield to be matched with the non-OPEC yield calculated according to the Hubbard model;
sixthly, finally confirming parameters of the Hubert model, and bringing the determined parameters into the model to obtain the future yield trend of the non-OPEC;
analyzing historical yield elasticity coefficients of the OPEC and the non-OPEC, setting the elasticity coefficients, and determining the game relation between the OPEC and the non-OPEC by the parameters;
and (b) bringing the yields of the OPEC and the non-OPEC under the resource constraint into a Stackelberg model, and calculating the yields of the OPEC and the non-OPEC under the game relation.
FIG. 4 shows oil production predictions (time on the abscissa, in days) for an OPEC under a resource constraint vs. gambling relationship; FIG. 5 shows oil production predictions (time on the abscissa, in days) for non-OPECs in a resource constraint versus gambling relationship; as can be seen from fig. 4 and 5, the yield under the resource constraint is greatly different from the yield under the gaming relationship, the OPEC yield under the gaming relationship is lower than the OPEC yield under the resource constraint, and the non-OPEC yield under the gaming relationship is higher than the OPEC yield under the resource constraint. The intent of OPEC establishment is to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of the various member countries and to determine the most appropriate means to maintain common interest among the member countries. The OPEC member states promote the oil price to rise through the yield reduction protocol, thereby influencing the international crude oil market. From the measurement results, the OPEC yield under the game relation is lower than the OPEC yield under the resource constraint, and the current actual situation is reflected.
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the present invention further provides an oil yield prediction apparatus based on a starkeberg game model, as described in the following embodiments. Because the principle of the device for solving the problems is similar to the oil yield prediction method based on the Starkelberg game model, the implementation of the device can be seen in the implementation of the oil yield prediction method based on the Starkelberg game model, and repeated details are not repeated.
Fig. 6 is a schematic diagram of an oil yield prediction apparatus based on a starkeberg game model according to an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 6, the apparatus includes: the system comprises a historical petroleum yield data acquisition module 61, a petroleum yield model determination module 62, a resource constraint petroleum yield prediction module 63 and a game relation petroleum yield prediction module 64.
The historical petroleum yield data acquisition module 61 is used for acquiring historical petroleum yield data of each petroleum main object in the petroleum system; a petroleum yield model determining module 62, configured to construct a hebert yield prediction model for each subject object according to the historical petroleum yield data of each subject object based on a hebert function; a resource constraint petroleum yield prediction module 63, configured to predict petroleum yield data of each subject object under resource constraint by using the habert yield prediction model of each subject object; and the game relation petroleum yield prediction module 64 is used for inputting the petroleum yield data of each main object under the resource constraint into a pre-constructed Starkeberg game model and outputting the petroleum yield data of each main object under the game relation.
In one embodiment, the oil yield model determining module 62 is further configured to fit a relationship between the historical oil yield and time by using a habert function according to the historical oil yield data of each subject object to obtain a habert yield prediction model of each subject object; and predicting the petroleum yield data of each main body object by using the Hubert yield prediction model of each main body object, and continuously adjusting model parameters by comparing the historical petroleum yield data of each cylinder object with the predicted petroleum yield data until the historical petroleum yield data of each main body object is consistent with the predicted petroleum yield data.
In one embodiment, the oil production prediction apparatus based on the starkeberg game model provided in the embodiment of the present invention may further include: the game model determining module 65 is configured to determine an oil yield elastic coefficient of each subject object according to the historical oil yield data of each subject object; and constructing a Starkelberg game model according to the oil yield elasticity coefficient of each main object.
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the invention further provides a computer device, which is used for solving the technical problem that the prediction result is inaccurate because the macro game relationship in the oil system cannot be embodied by the oil yield prediction method based on statistics in the prior art.
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, which is used for solving the technical problem that the prediction result is inaccurate because the macroscopic game relation in the petroleum system cannot be embodied by the petroleum yield prediction method based on statistics in the prior art.
To sum up, embodiments of the present invention provide a method, an apparatus, a computer device, and a computer-readable storage medium for predicting petroleum production based on a starkeberg game model, after obtaining historical petroleum production data of each subject object in a petroleum system, based on a habert function, according to the historical petroleum production data of each subject object, a habert production prediction model of each subject object is constructed, and then the petroleum production data of each subject object under resource constraint is predicted by using the habert production prediction model of each subject object, the petroleum production data of each subject object under resource constraint is input into a preset starkeberg game model, and the petroleum production data of each subject object under game relationship is output, compared with the petroleum production prediction scheme based on statistics in the prior art, according to the embodiment of the invention, the petroleum yield is predicted based on the Starkelberg game model, the macroscopic game relation of the petroleum market is considered, and the future petroleum yield can be predicted more accurately.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The above-mentioned embodiments are intended to illustrate the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in further detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are only exemplary embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (12)
1. A petroleum yield prediction method based on a Starkeberg game model is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring historical petroleum yield data of each main object in a petroleum system;
constructing a Hubbard yield prediction model of each main body object according to historical petroleum yield data of each main body object based on a Hubbard function;
predicting petroleum yield data of each subject object under resource constraint by using a Hubert yield prediction model of each subject object;
and inputting the oil yield data of each main object under the resource constraint into a pre-constructed Starkeberg game model, and outputting the oil yield data of each main object under the game relation.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein constructing a Hubert yield prediction model for each subject object based on historical oil yield data for each subject object based on a Hubert function comprises:
according to the historical petroleum yield data of each main object, fitting the relation between the historical petroleum yield and time by using a Hubert function to obtain a Hubert yield prediction model of each main object;
and predicting the petroleum yield data of each main body object by using the Hubert yield prediction model of each main body object, and continuously adjusting model parameters by comparing the historical petroleum yield data of each cylinder object with the predicted petroleum yield data until the historical petroleum yield data of each main body object is consistent with the predicted petroleum yield data.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein prior to importing the oil production data of the subject objects under the resource constraint into the pre-constructed starkeberg gambling model and exporting the oil production data of the subject objects in the gambling relationship, the method further comprises:
determining the oil yield elastic coefficient of each subject object according to the historical oil yield data of each subject object;
and constructing a Starkelberg game model according to the oil yield elasticity coefficient of each main object.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the petroleum system comprises: the system comprises a first subject object and a second subject object, wherein the first subject object is a leader for formulating oil price data, and the second subject object is a follower for receiving the oil price data formulated by the first subject object; the starkeberg game model of the first and second subject objects is as follows:
p(Q)＝a-Q；
Q＝q1+q2；
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
wherein p represents the price of oil made by the first subject object; q represents the total oil production of the oil system; q. q.s1Representing the oil production of the first subject object under the gambling relationship; q. q.s2Representing the oil production of the second subject object under the gambling relationship; a represents a certain predetermined constant; beta represents the cross elasticity coefficient of the first subject object and the second subject object, and is used for representing the change of the oil yield of the second subject object under the condition that the oil yield of the first subject object is changed;
representing oil production of the first subject object under resource constraints;
representing the oil production of the second subject object under resource constraints; Δ q of1Representing the amount of change in oil production of the first subject; Δ q of2Representing the amount of change in oil production of the first subject; q. q.s1adjustRepresenting an oil production adjustment of the first subject object in the gambling relationship; q. q.s2adjustAnd indicating the oil production adjustment amount of the second main object in the game relation.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the oil production of the first subject object under the resource constraint is determined by the following formula
And oil production of the second subject under resource constraints
Wherein N is1Representing a petroleum recoverable reserve of the first subject; n is a radical of2Representing the petroleum recoverable reserve of the second subject; t represents time; lambda [ alpha ]1、λ2、C1、C2And C represents a model parameter.
6. An oil production prediction device based on a starkeberg game model, comprising:
the historical petroleum yield data acquisition module is used for acquiring historical petroleum yield data of each petroleum main object in the petroleum system;
the petroleum yield model determining module is used for constructing a Hubbard yield prediction model of each main body object according to the historical petroleum yield data of each main body object based on a Hubbard function;
the resource constraint petroleum yield prediction module is used for predicting petroleum yield data of each main object under resource constraint by using the Hubert yield prediction model of each main object;
and the game relation petroleum yield prediction module is used for inputting the petroleum yield data of each main object under the resource constraint into a pre-constructed Starkelberg game model and outputting the petroleum yield data of each main object under the game relation.
7. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein the oil production model determining module is further configured to fit a relationship between the historical oil production and time using a Hubert function according to the historical oil production data of each subject object to obtain a Hubert production prediction model of each subject object; and predicting the petroleum yield data of each main body object by using the Hubert yield prediction model of each main body object, and continuously adjusting model parameters by comparing the historical petroleum yield data of each cylinder object with the predicted petroleum yield data until the historical petroleum yield data of each main body object is consistent with the predicted petroleum yield data.
8. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein the apparatus further comprises:
the game model determining module is used for determining the oil yield elastic coefficient of each main object according to the historical oil yield data of each main object; and constructing a Starkelberg game model according to the oil yield elasticity coefficient of each main object.
9. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein the petroleum system comprises: the system comprises a first subject object and a second subject object, wherein the first subject object is a leader for formulating oil price data, and the second subject object is a follower for receiving the oil price data formulated by the first subject object; the starkeberg game model of the first and second subject objects is as follows:
p(Q)＝a-Q；
Q＝q1+q2；
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
wherein p represents the price of oil made by the first subject object; q represents the total oil production of the oil system; q. q.s1Representing the oil production of the first subject object under the gambling relationship; q. q.s2Representing the oil production of the second subject object under the gambling relationship; a represents a certain predetermined constant; beta represents the cross elasticity coefficient of the first subject object and the second subject object, and is used for representing the change of the oil yield of the second subject object under the condition that the oil yield of the first subject object is changed;
representing oil production of the first subject object under resource constraints;
representing the oil production of the second subject object under resource constraints; Δ q of1Representing the amount of change in oil production of the first subject; Δ q of2Representing the amount of change in oil production of the first subject; q. q.s1adjustRepresenting an oil production adjustment of the first subject object in the gambling relationship; q. q.s2adjustRepresents the secondAnd adjusting the oil yield of the main object in the game relation.
10. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the resource constrained oil production prediction module is further configured to determine the oil production of the first subject object under the resource constraint by
And oil production of the second subject under resource constraints
Wherein N is1Representing the petroleum recoverable reserve of the first subject, N2Representing the petroleum recoverable reserve of the second subject; t represents time; lambda [ alpha ]1、λ2、C1、C2Representing model parameters; and C represents.
11. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor when executing the computer program implements the method for predicting oil production based on a starkeberg game model according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
12. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program for executing the method for predicting oil production based on a starkeberg gambling model according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
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