CN112559958B - A method for retrieving the total solar radiation and direct radiation on the surface based on the Fengyun-4 satellite - Google Patents

A method for retrieving the total solar radiation and direct radiation on the surface based on the Fengyun-4 satellite Download PDF

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CN112559958B
CN112559958B CN202110006592.8A CN202110006592A CN112559958B CN 112559958 B CN112559958 B CN 112559958B CN 202110006592 A CN202110006592 A CN 202110006592A CN 112559958 B CN112559958 B CN 112559958B
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杨丽薇
高晓清
蒋俊霞
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Northwest Institute of Eco Environment and Resources of CAS
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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for inverting total surface solar radiation and direct radiation based on a wind cloud No. 4 satellite, which comprises the following steps: selecting a wind cloud No. 4 satellite image, and classifying, identifying and processing the satellite cloud imageConverting the pixel image into a pixel image of a cloud index, and respectively calculating the cloud index by taking a month as a unit by utilizing a Heliosat-2 method
Figure 100004_DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
Further obtain clear sky indexKc(ii) a Secondly, the McClear data are utilized, and then the total earth surface radiation numerical value is calculated respectivelyGHIAnd direct solar radiationDNI(ii) a According to the change rule that the direct radiation inversion numerical value is smaller than the observation value in the winter and the half year, the direct solar radiation is subjected to the following formulaDNIOptimizing to obtain optimized value of direct solar radiation
Figure 345680DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
(ii) a Fourth, according to the total ground surface radiation numerical valueGHIAnd said direct solar radiation optimization value
Figure 125417DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
Evaluating and analyzing the change characteristics. The method is simple and convenient to calculate and high in accuracy.

Description

Method for inverting total radiation and direct radiation of earth surface and sun based on wind cloud No. 4 satellite
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of surface solar radiation inversion, in particular to a method for inverting total surface solar radiation and direct surface solar radiation based on a wind cloud No. 4 satellite.
Background
In 2019, although the capacity of the new photovoltaic grid-connected machine in China is reduced again in the same proportion, the newly increased photovoltaic grid-connected capacity and the accumulated photovoltaic grid-connected capacity still live at the top of the world. However, there are several obstacles to the development of the photovoltaic industry, one of which is the lack of accurate prediction of the output power of the photovoltaic grid-connected system. The output power of the photovoltaic power station is large, the output fluctuation is large, and the interval time is long, so that great challenges are provided for the management and coordination of large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected safe operation. And the risk of management and operation of the photovoltaic power station can be obviously reduced by accurately predicting the photovoltaic electric quantity.
The first step in predicting the photovoltaic power is to predict the solar irradiance received at the earth's surface. Wherein, Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) is applicable to photovoltaic systems and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is applicable to concentrated solar power plants. GHI and DNI information can generally be obtained by three different methods: ground observation, numerical simulation and satellite remote sensing. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. Ground observation can provide high-quality instruments and maintenance, and can provide baseline Surface Solar Irradiance (SSI) data, but has limited guiding effect on the layout of a large-area photovoltaic power station due to the small number and uneven distribution of observation stations. Although numerical simulation can generate continuous radiation change patterns on regional and global scales, which is very important for long-term climate monitoring, the main drawback is the low accuracy of the model simulated clouds. Remote sensing data can capture dynamic movement of the cloud, which provides a unique means for monitoring and estimating radiation.
Each satellite and sensor has certain limitations for solar radiation prediction and photovoltaic research. The wind and cloud fourth satellite is used as a new generation geostationary orbit quantitative remote sensing meteorological satellite, and a triaxial stable control scheme is adopted, so that the spanning development is realized on the functions and the performance. The number of the radiation imaging channels is increased to 14 from 5 of a wind cloud-2G satellite, and the radiation imaging channels cover visible light, short wave, medium wave and long wave infrared wave bands. Wind and cloud satellites have proven their feasibility for radiation research in China. However, the method for calculating the surface radiation is mostly calculated by the ESRA, and McClear data is not combined, and the inversion effect of direct radiation is not corrected due to less observed data.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing a method for inverting the total radiation and the direct radiation of the earth surface sun based on a wind cloud No. 4 satellite, which is simple and convenient to calculate and high in accuracy.
In order to solve the problems, the method for inverting the total radiation and the direct radiation of the earth surface sun based on the wind cloud No. 4 satellite comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the steps of selecting a wind cloud No. 4 satellite image, classifying, identifying and processing the satellite cloud image, converting the pixel image into a pixel image of a cloud index, and calculating the cloud index by using a Heliosat-2 method in a month unit
Figure 411419DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
Further obtain clear sky indexKc；
Secondly, the McClear data are utilized, and then the total earth surface radiation numerical value is calculated according to the following formulaGHIAnd direct solar radiationDNI；
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
Figure 266243DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
In the formula:
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
total radiation in clear sky;
Figure 980733DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
directly radiating in clear sky;
when clear sky indexKcWhen the temperature is less than 0.35, the temperature will beDNIThe value of (d) is set to 0;
according to the change rule that the direct radiation inversion numerical value is smaller than the observation value in the winter and the half year, the direct solar radiation is subjected to the following formulaDNIOptimizing to obtain optimized value of direct solar radiation
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
：
Figure 313626DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
In the formula:
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
means corresponding to the pixel pointiDirect solar radiation value of (1);
fourth, according to the total ground surface radiation numerical valueGHIAnd said direct solar radiation optimization value
Figure 65681DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
Evaluating and analyzing the change characteristics.
The step includes a middle cloud index
Figure 825827DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
Is instant t and pixel point
Figure 92860DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
Cloud index of (1), no unit; the value is obtained by the following equation:
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
；
in the formula:
Figure 229443DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
the albedo of the cloud surface is observed by the wind cloud satellite sensor at time t, and no unit exists;
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
the surface albedo under the clear sky condition is unitless;
Figure 711371DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
the albedo of the brightest cloud in the month is unitless.
The earth surface albedo is calculated by analyzing all pixel histograms of each month and selecting the darkest pixel in the month time sequence.
The albedo of the brightest cloud is calculated by analyzing all pixel histograms every month and selecting 95% of interval pixels.
The method comprises the step of transmitting a clear sky indexKcThe calculation method of (2) is defined as follows:
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
wherein:Kcis a clear sky index without dimension.
The step three, the half year in winter refers to the time from 9 months in the current year to 2 months in the next year.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
1. according to the invention, the cloud index is calculated by combining the data of the wind-cloud-fourth satellite with the McClear data, so that the clear sky index is obtained, the total earth surface radiation and the direct radiation are calculated by combining the data of the McClear, the calculation is simple and convenient, the accuracy is high, and the inversion effect of the direct radiation is obviously improved. The method expands the application method and range of the Fengyun No. 4 satellite data.
2. Compared with the traditional method using the ESRA model, the method is simpler and requires fewer parameters. Meanwhile, the direct radiation in half a year in winter is optimized, the mode is simple, and the effect is improved remarkably.
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The following describes embodiments of the present invention in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a scatter plot of the total radiation measurements and inversions of Zhang North (a), Lepton (b), Hengshui (c), and Chengde (d). Wherein: r is a correlation coefficient; n is the data volume; RMSE is root mean square error.
FIG. 3 is an annual change plot of the inversion of Zhang, Leptongzi, constant water and Chengdu total radiation. Wherein: (a) nRMSE root mean square error between prediction and observation; (b) nMAE: a normalized absolute mean error between the prediction and the observed value; (c) nMBE: a normalized mean offset error between the prediction and the observed value; (d) r: a correlation coefficient between the prediction and the observed value.
FIG. 4 is an initial prediction of the direct radiation for Zhang North and Chengdu. Wherein: (a) nRMSE root mean square error between prediction and observation; (b) nMAE: a normalized absolute mean error between the prediction and the observed value; (c) nMBE: a normalized mean offset error between the prediction and the observed value; (d) r: a correlation coefficient between the prediction and the observed value.
FIG. 5 shows the effect of the present invention on DNI prediction before and after five consecutive days. Wherein: the upper graph is Chengdu area, and the lower graph is Zhang Bei area.
Detailed Description
As shown in fig. 1, the method for inverting total radiation and direct radiation of earth surface sun based on the wind cloud number 4 satellite comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the steps of selecting a wind cloud No. 4 satellite image, classifying, identifying and processing the satellite cloud image, converting the pixel image into a pixel image of a cloud index, and calculating the cloud index by using a Heliosat-2 method in a month unit
Figure 975426DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
Further obtain clear sky indexKc. The specific process is as follows:
n is the result of comparing what the sensor sees on the pixel with what it should see (if the sky is clear), which is related to the "clarity" of the atmosphere.
Cloud index
Figure 667438DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
Is instant t and pixel point
Figure 404450DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
Cloud index of (1), no unit; the value is obtained by the following equation:
Figure 865519DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
；
in the formula:
Figure 295363DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
the albedo of the cloud surface is observed by the wind cloud satellite sensor at time t, and no unit exists;
Figure 474671DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
the surface albedo under the clear sky condition is unitless;
Figure 749795DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
the albedo of the brightest cloud in the month is unitless. The data provided by the FY-4 satellite level 1 data can be converted directly to apparent albedo in the calibration table. The calibration table may be obtained directly from the downloaded cloud by Matlab software.
The earth surface albedo is calculated by analyzing all pixel histograms of each month and selecting the darkest pixel in the time series of the month.
The albedo of the brightest cloud is calculated by analyzing all pixel histograms every month and selecting 95% of interval pixels.
Clear sky indexKcThe calculation method of (2) is defined as follows:
Figure 330949DEST_PATH_IMAGE015
wherein:Kcis a clear sky index without dimension. The constant variables are determined by reference to the article published by Yang et al, (2020) on sensors.
Secondly, the McClear data is utilized (the data can be downloaded from the following links (http:// www.soda-pro. com/web-services/radiation/cameras-McClear) through inputting longitude and latitude, altitude, start and stop time, time step, time interval and output format, and then the total earth surface radiation numerical value is calculated according to the following formula respectivelyGHIAnd direct solar radiationDNI；
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
Figure 603799DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
In the formula:
Figure 270403DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
total radiation in clear sky;
Figure 286901DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
direct radiation for clear sky (both data can be downloaded from McClear web links);
when clear sky indexKcWhen the temperature is less than 0.35, the temperature will beDNIThe value of (d) is set to 0.
The direct radiation inversion numerical value of the product according to winter and half years is less thanThe change rule of the observed value is that the winter half year is the time from 9 months to 2 months in the next year. Then the following formula is used for direct solar radiationDNIOptimizing to obtain optimized value of direct solar radiation
Figure 784878DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
：
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
In the formula:
Figure 491279DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
means corresponding to the pixel pointiDirect solar radiation value of (1);
fourth, according to the total ground surface radiation numerical valueGHIAnd direct solar radiation optimization
Figure 379600DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
Evaluating and analyzing the change characteristics.
The examples were simulated using total and direct radiation from Zhang Bei, Le Ting, Heng shui and Chengde as examples.
1. Simulation of total surface radiation:
after the cloud index data is projected through SWAP software, a Heliosat-2 method is operated by utilizing Matlab programming, and the cloud index is calculated firstly
Figure 262105DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
Then calculate the clear sky indexKcThen calculating the total radiation value of the earth surfaceGHI。
FIG. 2 is a scatter plot of measured and inverted values for Zhang Bei, Legting, Water balance and Chengdu. The data in the figure do not include rain, snow and heavily polluted days, and the data range is 6/1/2018 to 5/31/2019. R =0.896, N =15656, RMSE =109.9, y =0.8239 × x +81.96 in fig. 2 a; r =0.940, N =17202, RMSE =84.83, y =0.9057 × x +53.87 in fig. 2 b; r =0.952, N =19981, RMSE =73.18, y =0.9326 × x +41.01 in fig. 2 c; r =0.880, N =17598, RMSE =120.10, y =0.818 × x +85.14 in fig. 2 d. In the formula: x is observed data and y is predicted data.
Due to the large data volume, the simulation effect of the scheme can be clearly reflected. As can be seen from fig. 2, overall, the inversion effect of the total surface radiation is better, and the data density is higher near the 1:1 line.
In the four observation points, the RMSE values for both zhangbei and chengde were 109.9 and 120.1, respectively, significantly higher than 84.83 and 73.18 for the setine and the constant water. The bias deviation of the whole sky condition of the music pavilion and the balance water is much lower than that of the Zhang-Bei and Chengde, and especially the radiation range is 200W.m-2 ~ 800 W.m-2In the meantime.
Although GHI simulation effects of four observation points are different, the monthly change trend is basically the same. As can be seen from fig. 3, the nRMSE values for the 4 observation points reach a maximum value in month 7. The NRMSE value of Chengde is the largest, and the equilibrium water is the smallest, which are 39.471% and 23.172% respectively. Under the influence of climate conditions such as local circulation, the GHI simulation effect of 1 month Zhang Bei and Chengde is the best, and the GHI simulation effect of 10 months Lecheng county and balance water is the best. Overall, the simulated effect in autumn and winter (2018, 9 months to 2019, 2 months) is better than in summer and spring.
2. Simulation of direct radiation of the earth surface:
after the cloud index data is projected through SWAP software, a Heliosat-2 method is operated by utilizing Matlab programming, and the cloud index is calculated firstly
Figure 552272DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
Then calculate the clear sky indexKcThen calculating the direct solar radiationDNI. Optimizing the calculated DNI value to obtain the optimized value of direct solar radiation for the direct radiation of the winter in half year
Figure 494821DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
。
The predicted effect before correction of the DNI predicted value is shown in fig. 4, the effect of five consecutive days before and after improvement is shown in fig. 5, and the simulated effect before and after correction is shown in table 1. The initial DNI estimates were highly biased overall with MBE of-167.339 and-203.211 for north and south, respectively. The average nRMSD was over 48%, indicating that the initial inversion effect is not applicable to the study area. The improved DNI inversion values had less negative bias at all sites. The RMSE of Chengde is reduced from 314.901 to 249.956, and the nMBE is reduced from-26.211% to-9.107%; the RMSE of the north was decreased from 303.658 to 217.921, and the nMBE was decreased from-32.351 to-18.823. Overall, the improved scheme provides a significant improvement in the accuracy of DNI estimation in this region over the initial inversion method. In general, the direct radiation inversion optimization formula for the winter semiyear (2018, 9 months to 2019, 2 months) is simple and efficient without other observation means.
TABLE 1 simulation Effect before and after correction
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE019

Claims (4)

1.基于风云4号卫星反演地表太阳总辐射和直接辐射的方法，包括以下步骤：1. The method for retrieving the total solar radiation and direct radiation on the surface based on the Fengyun-4 satellite includes the following steps: ⑴选取风云4号卫星图像，对卫星云图进行分类识别和处理，将像元图像转换为云指数的像元图像，并以月为单位分别利用Heliosat-2方法计算云指数
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
，进而得到晴空指数Kc；(1) Select the satellite image of Fengyun 4, classify, identify and process the satellite cloud image, convert the pixel image into the pixel image of the cloud index, and use the Heliosat-2 method to calculate the cloud index on a monthly basis.
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
, and then the clear sky index Kc is obtained; 所述云指数
Figure 125402DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
为瞬时t和像素点
Figure 458294DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
的云指数，无单位；其值由如下方程求得：the cloud index
Figure 125402DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
is the instant t and the pixel point
Figure 458294DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
The cloud index of , unitless; its value is obtained by the following equation:
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
；
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
; 式中：
Figure 210350DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
为风云4号卫星传感器在时间t观测到云表面的反照率，无单位；
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
为晴空条件下的地表反照率，无单位；
Figure 970495DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
为当月最亮云的反照率，无单位；where:
Figure 210350DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
is the albedo of the cloud surface observed by the Fengyun-4 satellite sensor at time t, unitless;
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
is the surface albedo under clear sky conditions, unitless;
Figure 970495DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
is the albedo of the brightest cloud of the month, unitless; 所述晴空指数Kc的计算方法定义如下：The calculation method of the clear sky index Kc is defined as follows:
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
 其中：Kc为晴空指数，无量纲；Where: Kc is the clear sky index, dimensionless; ⑵利用McClear数据，之后分别按下式计算地表总辐射数值GHI和直接太阳辐射DNI；(2) Using McClear data, then calculate the total surface radiation value GHI and the direct solar radiation DNI as follows;
Figure 175211DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
Figure 175211DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
 式中：
Figure 311795DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
为晴空总辐射；
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
为晴空直接辐射；where:
Figure 311795DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
is the clear sky total radiation;
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
Direct radiation for clear sky; 当晴空指数Kc小于0.35时，将DNI的数值设为0；When the clear sky index Kc is less than 0.35, the value of DNI is set to 0; ⑶根据冬半年直接辐射反演数值小于观测值的变化规律，按下式对所述直接太阳辐射DNI进行优化，得到直接太阳辐射优化值
Figure 918357DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
：(3) According to the change rule that the direct radiation inversion value is less than the observed value in the winter half year, the direct solar radiation DNI is optimized according to the following formula, and the direct solar radiation optimization value is obtained.
Figure 918357DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
:
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
 式中：
Figure 849404DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
是指对应于像素点i的直接太阳辐射值；where:
Figure 849404DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
refers to the direct solar radiation value corresponding to pixel i ; ⑷根据所述地表总辐射数值GHI和所述直接太阳辐射优化值
Figure 603733DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
评估、分析其变化特征即可。(4) According to the total surface radiation value GHI and the optimal value of direct solar radiation
Figure 603733DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
Evaluate and analyze its change characteristics. 2.如权利要求1所述的基于风云4号卫星反演地表太阳总辐射和直接辐射的方法，其特征在于：所述步骤⑴中地表反照率是指通过分析每个月所有像素直方图，选取月时间序列中最暗的像素计算所得。2. the method for retrieving surface solar radiation and direct radiation based on Fengyun No. 4 satellite as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that: in described step (1), surface albedo refers to all pixel histograms by analyzing every month, Calculated by picking the darkest pixel in the monthly time series. 3.如权利要求1所述的基于风云4号卫星反演地表太阳总辐射和直接辐射的方法，其特征在于：所述步骤⑴中最亮云的反照率是指通过分析每个月所有像素直方图，选取95%的区间像素计算所得。3. the method for retrieving surface solar total radiation and direct radiation based on Fengyun No. 4 satellite as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that: the albedo of the brightest cloud in described step (1) refers to by analyzing all pixels of each month Histogram, calculated by selecting 95% of the interval pixels. 4.如权利要求1所述的基于风云4号卫星反演地表太阳总辐射和直接辐射的方法，其特征在于：所述步骤⑶中冬半年是指当年9月到来年2月的时间。4. the method for inversion of surface solar total radiation and direct radiation based on Fengyun No. 4 satellite as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that: in described step (3), winter half year refers to the time from September of the year to February of the next year.
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