CN112559958B - Method for inverting total radiation and direct radiation of earth surface and sun based on wind cloud No. 4 satellite - Google Patents
Method for inverting total radiation and direct radiation of earth surface and sun based on wind cloud No. 4 satellite Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a method for inverting total surface solar radiation and direct radiation based on a wind cloud No. 4 satellite, which comprises the following steps: selecting a wind cloud No. 4 satellite image, and classifying, identifying and processing the satellite cloud imageConverting the pixel image into a pixel image of a cloud index, and respectively calculating the cloud index by taking a month as a unit by utilizing a Heliosat-2 method
Further obtain clear sky indexKc(ii) a Secondly, the McClear data are utilized, and then the total earth surface radiation numerical value is calculated respectivelyGHIAnd direct solar radiationDNI(ii) a According to the change rule that the direct radiation inversion numerical value is smaller than the observation value in the winter and the half year, the direct solar radiation is subjected to the following formulaDNIOptimizing to obtain optimized value of direct solar radiation
(ii) a Fourth, according to the total ground surface radiation numerical valueGHIAnd said direct solar radiation optimization value
Evaluating and analyzing the change characteristics. The method is simple and convenient to calculate and high in accuracy.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of surface solar radiation inversion, in particular to a method for inverting total surface solar radiation and direct surface solar radiation based on a wind cloud No. 4 satellite.
Background
In 2019, although the capacity of the new photovoltaic grid-connected machine in China is reduced again in the same proportion, the newly increased photovoltaic grid-connected capacity and the accumulated photovoltaic grid-connected capacity still live at the top of the world. However, there are several obstacles to the development of the photovoltaic industry, one of which is the lack of accurate prediction of the output power of the photovoltaic grid-connected system. The output power of the photovoltaic power station is large, the output fluctuation is large, and the interval time is long, so that great challenges are provided for the management and coordination of large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected safe operation. And the risk of management and operation of the photovoltaic power station can be obviously reduced by accurately predicting the photovoltaic electric quantity.
The first step in predicting the photovoltaic power is to predict the solar irradiance received at the earth's surface. Wherein, Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) is applicable to photovoltaic systems and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is applicable to concentrated solar power plants. GHI and DNI information can generally be obtained by three different methods: ground observation, numerical simulation and satellite remote sensing. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. Ground observation can provide high-quality instruments and maintenance, and can provide baseline Surface Solar Irradiance (SSI) data, but has limited guiding effect on the layout of a large-area photovoltaic power station due to the small number and uneven distribution of observation stations. Although numerical simulation can generate continuous radiation change patterns on regional and global scales, which is very important for long-term climate monitoring, the main drawback is the low accuracy of the model simulated clouds. Remote sensing data can capture dynamic movement of the cloud, which provides a unique means for monitoring and estimating radiation.
Each satellite and sensor has certain limitations for solar radiation prediction and photovoltaic research. The wind and cloud fourth satellite is used as a new generation geostationary orbit quantitative remote sensing meteorological satellite, and a triaxial stable control scheme is adopted, so that the spanning development is realized on the functions and the performance. The number of the radiation imaging channels is increased to 14 from 5 of a wind cloud-2G satellite, and the radiation imaging channels cover visible light, short wave, medium wave and long wave infrared wave bands. Wind and cloud satellites have proven their feasibility for radiation research in China. However, the method for calculating the surface radiation is mostly calculated by the ESRA, and McClear data is not combined, and the inversion effect of direct radiation is not corrected due to less observed data.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing a method for inverting the total radiation and the direct radiation of the earth surface sun based on a wind cloud No. 4 satellite, which is simple and convenient to calculate and high in accuracy.
In order to solve the problems, the method for inverting the total radiation and the direct radiation of the earth surface sun based on the wind cloud No. 4 satellite comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the steps of selecting a wind cloud No. 4 satellite image, classifying, identifying and processing the satellite cloud image, converting the pixel image into a pixel image of a cloud index, and calculating the cloud index by using a Heliosat-2 method in a month unit
Further obtain clear sky indexKc；
Secondly, the McClear data are utilized, and then the total earth surface radiation numerical value is calculated according to the following formulaGHIAnd direct solar radiationDNI；
In the formula:
total radiation in clear sky;
directly radiating in clear sky;
when clear sky indexKcWhen the temperature is less than 0.35, the temperature will beDNIThe value of (d) is set to 0;
according to the change rule that the direct radiation inversion numerical value is smaller than the observation value in the winter and the half year, the direct solar radiation is subjected to the following formulaDNIOptimizing to obtain optimized value of direct solar radiation
：
In the formula:
means corresponding to the pixel pointiDirect solar radiation value of (1);
fourth, according to the total ground surface radiation numerical valueGHIAnd said direct solar radiation optimization value
Evaluating and analyzing the change characteristics.
The step includes a middle cloud index
Is instant t and pixel point
Cloud index of (1), no unit; the value is obtained by the following equation:
in the formula:
the albedo of the cloud surface is observed by the wind cloud satellite sensor at time t, and no unit exists;
the surface albedo under the clear sky condition is unitless;
the albedo of the brightest cloud in the month is unitless.
The earth surface albedo is calculated by analyzing all pixel histograms of each month and selecting the darkest pixel in the month time sequence.
The albedo of the brightest cloud is calculated by analyzing all pixel histograms every month and selecting 95% of interval pixels.
The method comprises the step of transmitting a clear sky indexKcThe calculation method of (2) is defined as follows:
wherein:Kcis a clear sky index without dimension.
The step three, the half year in winter refers to the time from 9 months in the current year to 2 months in the next year.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
1. according to the invention, the cloud index is calculated by combining the data of the wind-cloud-fourth satellite with the McClear data, so that the clear sky index is obtained, the total earth surface radiation and the direct radiation are calculated by combining the data of the McClear, the calculation is simple and convenient, the accuracy is high, and the inversion effect of the direct radiation is obviously improved. The method expands the application method and range of the Fengyun No. 4 satellite data.
2. Compared with the traditional method using the ESRA model, the method is simpler and requires fewer parameters. Meanwhile, the direct radiation in half a year in winter is optimized, the mode is simple, and the effect is improved remarkably.
Drawings
The following describes embodiments of the present invention in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a scatter plot of the total radiation measurements and inversions of Zhang North (a), Lepton (b), Hengshui (c), and Chengde (d). Wherein: r is a correlation coefficient; n is the data volume; RMSE is root mean square error.
FIG. 3 is an annual change plot of the inversion of Zhang, Leptongzi, constant water and Chengdu total radiation. Wherein: (a) nRMSE root mean square error between prediction and observation; (b) nMAE: a normalized absolute mean error between the prediction and the observed value; (c) nMBE: a normalized mean offset error between the prediction and the observed value; (d) r: a correlation coefficient between the prediction and the observed value.
FIG. 4 is an initial prediction of the direct radiation for Zhang North and Chengdu. Wherein: (a) nRMSE root mean square error between prediction and observation; (b) nMAE: a normalized absolute mean error between the prediction and the observed value; (c) nMBE: a normalized mean offset error between the prediction and the observed value; (d) r: a correlation coefficient between the prediction and the observed value.
FIG. 5 shows the effect of the present invention on DNI prediction before and after five consecutive days. Wherein: the upper graph is Chengdu area, and the lower graph is Zhang Bei area.
Detailed Description
As shown in fig. 1, the method for inverting total radiation and direct radiation of earth surface sun based on the wind cloud number 4 satellite comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the steps of selecting a wind cloud No. 4 satellite image, classifying, identifying and processing the satellite cloud image, converting the pixel image into a pixel image of a cloud index, and calculating the cloud index by using a Heliosat-2 method in a month unit
Further obtain clear sky indexKc. The specific process is as follows:
n is the result of comparing what the sensor sees on the pixel with what it should see (if the sky is clear), which is related to the "clarity" of the atmosphere.
Cloud index
Is instant t and pixel point
Cloud index of (1), no unit; the value is obtained by the following equation:
in the formula:
the albedo of the cloud surface is observed by the wind cloud satellite sensor at time t, and no unit exists;
the surface albedo under the clear sky condition is unitless;
the albedo of the brightest cloud in the month is unitless. The data provided by the FY-4 satellite level 1 data can be converted directly to apparent albedo in the calibration table. The calibration table may be obtained directly from the downloaded cloud by Matlab software.
The earth surface albedo is calculated by analyzing all pixel histograms of each month and selecting the darkest pixel in the time series of the month.
The albedo of the brightest cloud is calculated by analyzing all pixel histograms every month and selecting 95% of interval pixels.
Clear sky indexKcThe calculation method of (2) is defined as follows:
wherein:Kcis a clear sky index without dimension. The constant variables are determined by reference to the article published by Yang et al, (2020) on sensors.
Secondly, the McClear data is utilized (the data can be downloaded from the following links (http:// www.soda-pro. com/web-services/radiation/cameras-McClear) through inputting longitude and latitude, altitude, start and stop time, time step, time interval and output format, and then the total earth surface radiation numerical value is calculated according to the following formula respectivelyGHIAnd direct solar radiationDNI；
In the formula:
total radiation in clear sky;
direct radiation for clear sky (both data can be downloaded from McClear web links);
when clear sky indexKcWhen the temperature is less than 0.35, the temperature will beDNIThe value of (d) is set to 0.
The direct radiation inversion numerical value of the product according to winter and half years is less thanThe change rule of the observed value is that the winter half year is the time from 9 months to 2 months in the next year. Then the following formula is used for direct solar radiationDNIOptimizing to obtain optimized value of direct solar radiation
：
In the formula:
means corresponding to the pixel pointiDirect solar radiation value of (1);
fourth, according to the total ground surface radiation numerical valueGHIAnd direct solar radiation optimization
Evaluating and analyzing the change characteristics.
The examples were simulated using total and direct radiation from Zhang Bei, Le Ting, Heng shui and Chengde as examples.
1. Simulation of total surface radiation:
after the cloud index data is projected through SWAP software, a Heliosat-2 method is operated by utilizing Matlab programming, and the cloud index is calculated firstly
Then calculate the clear sky indexKcThen calculating the total radiation value of the earth surfaceGHI。
FIG. 2 is a scatter plot of measured and inverted values for Zhang Bei, Legting, Water balance and Chengdu. The data in the figure do not include rain, snow and heavily polluted days, and the data range is 6/1/2018 to 5/31/2019. R =0.896, N =15656, RMSE =109.9, y =0.8239 × x +81.96 in fig. 2 a; r =0.940, N =17202, RMSE =84.83, y =0.9057 × x +53.87 in fig. 2 b; r =0.952, N =19981, RMSE =73.18, y =0.9326 × x +41.01 in fig. 2 c; r =0.880, N =17598, RMSE =120.10, y =0.818 × x +85.14 in fig. 2 d. In the formula: x is observed data and y is predicted data.
Due to the large data volume, the simulation effect of the scheme can be clearly reflected. As can be seen from fig. 2, overall, the inversion effect of the total surface radiation is better, and the data density is higher near the 1:1 line.
In the four observation points, the RMSE values for both zhangbei and chengde were 109.9 and 120.1, respectively, significantly higher than 84.83 and 73.18 for the setine and the constant water. The bias deviation of the whole sky condition of the music pavilion and the balance water is much lower than that of the Zhang-Bei and Chengde, and especially the radiation range is 200W.m-2 ~ 800 W.m-2In the meantime.
Although GHI simulation effects of four observation points are different, the monthly change trend is basically the same. As can be seen from fig. 3, the nRMSE values for the 4 observation points reach a maximum value in month 7. The NRMSE value of Chengde is the largest, and the equilibrium water is the smallest, which are 39.471% and 23.172% respectively. Under the influence of climate conditions such as local circulation, the GHI simulation effect of 1 month Zhang Bei and Chengde is the best, and the GHI simulation effect of 10 months Lecheng county and balance water is the best. Overall, the simulated effect in autumn and winter (2018, 9 months to 2019, 2 months) is better than in summer and spring.
2. Simulation of direct radiation of the earth surface:
after the cloud index data is projected through SWAP software, a Heliosat-2 method is operated by utilizing Matlab programming, and the cloud index is calculated firstly
Then calculate the clear sky indexKcThen calculating the direct solar radiationDNI. Optimizing the calculated DNI value to obtain the optimized value of direct solar radiation for the direct radiation of the winter in half year
。
The predicted effect before correction of the DNI predicted value is shown in fig. 4, the effect of five consecutive days before and after improvement is shown in fig. 5, and the simulated effect before and after correction is shown in table 1. The initial DNI estimates were highly biased overall with MBE of-167.339 and-203.211 for north and south, respectively. The average nRMSD was over 48%, indicating that the initial inversion effect is not applicable to the study area. The improved DNI inversion values had less negative bias at all sites. The RMSE of Chengde is reduced from 314.901 to 249.956, and the nMBE is reduced from-26.211% to-9.107%; the RMSE of the north was decreased from 303.658 to 217.921, and the nMBE was decreased from-32.351 to-18.823. Overall, the improved scheme provides a significant improvement in the accuracy of DNI estimation in this region over the initial inversion method. In general, the direct radiation inversion optimization formula for the winter semiyear (2018, 9 months to 2019, 2 months) is simple and efficient without other observation means.
TABLE 1 simulation Effect before and after correction
Claims (4)
1. A method for inverting total radiation and direct radiation of earth surface sun based on a wind cloud No. 4 satellite comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the steps of selecting a wind cloud No. 4 satellite image, classifying, identifying and processing the satellite cloud image, converting the pixel image into a pixel image of a cloud index, and calculating the cloud index by using a Heliosat-2 method in a month unit
Further obtain clear sky indexKc；
The cloud index
Is instant t and pixel point
Cloud index of (1), no unit; the value is obtained by the following equation:
in the formula:
the albedo of the cloud surface is observed by the wind cloud No. 4 satellite sensor at time t, and no unit exists;
the surface albedo under the clear sky condition is unitless;
the albedo of the brightest cloud in the month is free of units;
the clear sky indexKcThe calculation method of (2) is defined as follows:
wherein:Kcthe index is clear sky index without dimension;
secondly, the McClear data are utilized, and then the total earth surface radiation numerical value is calculated according to the following formulaGHIAnd direct solar radiationDNI；
In the formula:
total radiation in clear sky;
directly radiating in clear sky;
when clear sky indexKcWhen the temperature is less than 0.35, the temperature will beDNIThe value of (d) is set to 0;
according to the change rule that the direct radiation inversion numerical value is smaller than the observation value in the winter and the half year, the direct solar radiation is subjected to the following formulaDNIOptimizing to obtain optimized value of direct solar radiation
：
In the formula:
means corresponding to the pixel pointiDirect solar radiation value of (1);
fourth, according to the total ground surface radiation numerical valueGHIAnd said direct solar radiation optimization value
Evaluating and analyzing the change characteristics.
2. The method for inverting the total radiation and the direct radiation of the earth surface and the sun based on the wind cloud No. 4 satellite as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the earth surface albedo in the step is calculated by analyzing all pixel histograms in each month and selecting the darkest pixel in a month time sequence.
3. The method for inverting the total radiation and the direct radiation of the earth surface and the sun based on the wind cloud No. 4 satellite as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the albedo of the brightest cloud in the step is calculated by analyzing all pixel histograms every month and selecting 95% of interval pixels.
4. The method for inverting the total radiation and the direct radiation of the earth surface and the sun based on the wind cloud No. 4 satellite as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the step three, the half year in winter refers to the time from 9 months in the current year to 2 months in the next year.
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